Future Trends: What’s Next for the Internet

Ilya Baraev, Strategy and Foresight, Nokia Design

Jane F.T. Guesses at Futurity from RetroFuture.com under Public Domain

baraev Ilya Baraev

Telling the Future: Myth

Silverisdead (2008) Gypsy_fortune_teller from Flickr under Creative Commonsbokur.net (2009) Reflecting on the future from Flickr under Creative Commons

WM Jas (2009) Reversible tarot card from Flickr under Creative Commons

Telling the Future: Reality

"Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10

years." - Alex Lewyt, president of Lewyt vacuum company, 1955.

“Two years from now, spam will be solved." - Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft,

2004.

“Radio has no future” - Sir William Thomson, mathematician and physicist, 1897:

"Television won't be able to hold on to any market after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." – Darryl Zanuck, executive at 20th

Century Fox, 1946.

Elon University/Pew Internet Project (2010) Imagining the Internet: A History and Forecast © All rights ReservedStrohmeyer, R. (2009) 7 Technology Predictions That Never Happened, PCAdvisor.co.uk © IDG 2010

Telling the Future: Today

Three Internet trends

Simple tips and tricks how to spot the trends

Foresight analysis tools

Part 1: Next Industrial Revolution

Jocelyn A.H (1864) ‘Richard March Hoe's printing press—one cylinder design’, History of the Processes of Manufacture under Public Domain

Laser Printer Inventor

1969 Gary Starkweather invented the laser printer at Xerox's Webster research center.

1971 He collaborated on the first fully functional laser printing system at Xerox PARC.

Coetzee D. (2009) Gary Starkweather from Flickr under Creative Commons Wikipedia (2010) Gary Starkweather under Creative Commons

PastPresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Laser Printer Evolution

1981 1984 1989

Xerox Star 8010 The first laser printer designed for office use

HP LaserJetThe first desktop laser printer

HP LaserJet IIPThe first sub-$1,000 laser printer

Wikipedia (2010) Laser Printer under Creative Commons Images: Devhardware, HP, HP Computer Museum

PastPresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Adoption

1981 1984 1989

Images: Devhardware, HP, HP Computer Museum

$ 17000 $ 3500 $ 1000

Adoption Rate

PastPresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Wikipedia (2010) Laser Printer under Creative Commons

?von Stackelberg P. (2000) Timeline of Major Trends and Events (Social, Technological, Economic & Political) by via Andreas_MB from Flickr under Creative Commons

Historical Adoption PatternsPast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Atoms Are the New Bits

“Welcome to the next Industrial Revolution”

Chris Anderson, editor-in-chiefWired, February 2010

Anderson C. (2010) ‘In the Next Industrial Revolution, Atoms Are the New Bits’, Wired © 2010 Condé Nast Digital. All rights reserved.

Wikipedia (2010) Etech05: Chris under Creative Commons

PastPresent

FutureLessons

ToolsAct

3D Printing

3D printing is a form of additive

manufacturing technology where a three dimensional

object is created by laying down

successive layers of material

Wikipedia (2010) 3D Printing under Creative Commons DimensionPrinting (2009) Time-Lapse Build on uPrint Personal 3D Printer from YouTube© All copyright their rightful owner

PastPresent

FutureLessons

ToolsAct

3D Printer Evolution

1988 2005 2009

3D System SLA 250 The first 3D printer available to public

Z Corp Spectrum Z510The first high-definition color 3D printer

MakerBot Cupcake CNCOpen source 3D DIY printer

3D Printers from Mahalo.com, Spectrum Z510 from Cadalyst.comZ Corporation Ships Spectrum Z510 3D Printing System from Z Corp

Wikipedia (2010) MakerBot Industries under Creative CommonsBoissonnier K. (2010) Cupcake CNC © With permission.

PastPresent

FutureLessons

ToolsAct

Adoption

1988 2005 2009

$187 000 $ 49 900 $ 1000

What happens to adoption rate?

Wohlers, T.T. (1991) Installing a Rapid Prototyping System © 1991 Wohlers AssociatesZ Corporation Ships Spectrum Z510 3D Printing System from Z Corp

Spectrum Z510 from Cadalyst.com, Cupcake CNC image from Kimo BoissonnierAnderson, C. (2010) ‘In the Next Industrial Revolution, Atoms Are the New Bits’, Wired, February © 2010 Condé Nast Digital. All rights reserved.

PastPresent

FutureLessons

ToolsAct

Internet is at the Heart

Software, long-tail, open source and online communities fuel the change

Anderson, C (2010) ‘In the Next Industrial Revolution, Atoms Are the New Bits’, Wired, February © 2010 Condé Nast Digital. All rights reserved.

PastPresent

FutureLessons

ToolsAct

“Hardware is becoming much more like software”Eric von Hipple, MIT

“If the past 10 years have been about discovering post-institutional social models on the Web, then the next 10 years will be about applying them to

the real world”Chris Anderson, Wired editor-in-chief

Online Communities

Freedom of Creation (2010) Website © 2010 Freedom of CreationThingiverse (2010) Website © 2010 MakerBot Industries

MakerBot Industries Wiki (2010) under GNU Free Documentation License

PastPresent

FutureLessons

ToolsAct

What Can Be Created Now

Freedom of Creation (2008) Onitsuga Tiger Campaign © Freedom of Creation Jouin P. (2010) Bloom Lamp from ArchZine © 2010 ArchZine. All rights reserved.

PastPresent

FutureLessons

ToolsAct

What Can Be Created Now

Fluid Forms (2008) T-Light Stick from Flickr under Creative Commonsquapan (2008) labyrinthine circuit board lines from Flickr under Creative Commons

Dominic’s pics (2010) CNC Milled Sustenuto Monochord Knob Logo and Sustenuto Monochord by Jon dickinson from Flickr under Creative Commons

PastPresent

FutureLessons

ToolsAct

What Might be Done in FuturePast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Urbee (2010) Urbee Hybrid from psfk.com under Creative Commonssaschapohlepp (2005) Rapid Prototyping at RCA from Flickr under Creative Commons

Front Design (2006) Sketch Furniture © Front Design

Lessons Learned

“Look back twice as far as you look forward”Paul Saffo, Managing Director of Foresight, Discern Analytics and lecturer at Stanford University.

Saffo, P. (2007) ‘Six Rules for Effective Forecasting’, Harvard Business Review © 2007 Harvard Business School PublishingHeath, C. and Heath, D. (2007) Made to Stick Teacher’s Guide, Random House

PastPresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

“The past does not repeat itself, but it rhymes” Mark Twain

“It will always be easier and more effective to spot a great idea than to generate one, since the world’s creativity

will always dwarf yours”Chip Heath, Dan Heath, authors of “Made to Stick”

Wikiquote (2010) Mark Twain under Creative Commons

Learn More

Environmental Scanning

Diffusion of Innovations by Everett M. Rogers, Crossing the Chasm by Geoffrey A. Moore, The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell, Future Savvy by Adam Gordon © All copyright their rightful owner.

PastPresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Diffusion of InnovationsCrossing the ChasmTipping Point

Drivers and Inhibitors

Wikipedia (2010) Wikipedia logo © Wikimedia Foundation, IncBook covers from ISBNLIB.com © 2009-2010 ISBNLIB.com

How to Start

Read history

The Master Switch by Tim Wu, Winners and Losers by Kieran Levis, The Nature of Technology by W. Brian Arthur TED website (2010) © TED CONFERENCES, LLC

PastPresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Follow right blogs

psfk.com website (2010) under Creative Commons

Part 2: Browse the World

centralasian (2008) Choices under Creative Commons

Web Browser Inventor

1992 Marc Andreessen starts developing Mosaic at the University of Illinois

1993 Jim Clark joins Marc

to create Netscape.

Levis, K. (2009) Winners and Losers, Grove Atlantic Ltd. © All copyright their rightful owner.Computer Desktop Encyclopedia (2010) Jim Clark via Yourdictionary.com

The History of Computing Project (2002) Mark Andreessen © 1994-99 Jones International and Jones Digital Century. All rights reserved.

PastPresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

1993 1995 1996

Images: Mosaic Netscape 0.9, Netscape Navigator 2.02, Netscape Navigator 3, Netscape Navigator, Internet Explorer 1.0,Internet Explorer 3, Internet Explorer 4 © All copyright their rightful owner.

Browser EvolutionPast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

1997

v0.9 v2.0 v3.0 v4.0

v1.0 v3.0 v4.0

Netscape

Microsoft

Levis, K. (2009) Winners and Losers, Grove Atlantic Ltd. © All copyright their rightful owner.

1994 2002 2006

Wikipedia (2010) Netscape Navigator Usage Data under Public DomainWikipedia (2010) Internet Explorer Usage Data under Public Domain

Browser Usage SharePast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

20101998

Netscape Microsoft100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

Levis, K. (2009) Winners and Losers, Grove Atlantic Ltd. © All copyright their rightful owner.

“The most hyped of the new concepts during the Internet boom was first mover advantage, when being the first to enter a market was seen as

synonymous with wining leadership of it.”

Kieran Levis, author of “Winners and Losers: Creators and Causalities of the age of the Internet”

First Mover AdvantagePast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Levis, K. (2009) Winners and Losers, Grove Atlantic Ltd. © All copyright their rightful owner.

Augmented Reality refers to a display in

which simulated imagery, graphics, or

symbology is superimposed on a

view of the surrounding environment

Common Craft (2010) Augmented Reality - Explained by Common Craft (Free Version) from YouTube © 2010 Common Craft, LLC

Augmented RealityPast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

eMagin (2010) Augmented Reality Definition © 2010 eMagin. All Rights Reserved.

1968 1998 2009A Head-Mounted Three Dimensional Display by I. Sutherland, Video See-Through AR on Consumer Cell Phones by M. Möhring et al.A wearable computer system with augmented reality to support terrestrial naviation by Bruce Thomas et al. via Hisotry Of Mobile AR. © All copyright their rightful owner.

Playing with Wikitude outside The Bank Of England by fstorr from Flickr under Creative Commons

Augmented Reality EvolutionPast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

2004

Sony (2009) EyePet for PlayStation 3 via GaimingBits © All copyright their rightful owner. antjeverena (2009) augmented reality with LEGO from Flickr under Creative Commons

What Can be Created NowPast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Tobi.com (2010) Augmented Reality Shopping from Weareorganizedchaos.com © All copyright their rightful owner

Black Eyed Peas/RIM (2010) The Time (Dirty Bit) from Engadget © All copyright their rightful owner

What Can be Created NowPast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Grifantini, K. (2010) ‘Microsoft Adds "Augmented Reality" to Bing Maps’, MIT Technology Review © 2010 MIT T.R.Parviz, B.A. (2009) ‘Augmented Reality in a Contact Lens’, IEEE Spectrum, Sept. © All copyright their rightful owner

Sixth Sense by Pranav Mistry (MIT Media Lab) © All copyright their rightful owner

What Might Be Done in FuturePast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Google Trends (2010) Augmented Reality Search Volume

Question is When?Past

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Search volume for words “augmented reality”

?

Garnter (2010) Gartner's 2010 Hype Cycle Special Report Evaluates Maturity of 1,800 Technologies © 2010 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved.

Gartner’s Hype CyclePast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Augmented Reality

How to Use Hype CyclePast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

What’s here that we

should be researching?

What’s here that we

should be using?

Garnter (2010) Gartner's 2010 Hype Cycle Special Report Evaluates Maturity of 1,800 Technologies © 2010 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved.

Recognize the hype

Understand the hype cycle and maturity

Timing of innovation is important

Lessons LearnedPast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Mastering the Hype Cycle

Markides, C.C., Geroski, P. A. (2005) Fast second, Jossey-Bass © All copyright their rightful ownerFenn, J. and Raskino, M. (2008) Mastering the Hype Cycle, © All copyright their rightful owner

Fast Second

Book covers from ISBNLIB.com © 2009-2010 ISBNLIB.com

Learn MorePast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Gartner’s Hype Curve

Garnter (2010) Gartner's 2010 Hype Cycle Special Report Evaluates Maturity of 1,800 Technologies © Gartner, Inc. Fenn, J. and Raskino, M. (2008) Mastering the Hype Cycle, © All copyright their rightful owner

Google Trends

Google Trends (2010) Augmented Reality Search VolumeBook covers from ISBNLIB.com © 2009-2010 ISBNLIB.com

How to StartPast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Articles, stock prices, investments, etc

Part 3: Internet Crossroads

emio_me (2007) "ripercussioni“ from Flickr under Creative Commons

Huge BrainPast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Wu, T. (2010) The Master Switch, Borzoi Books © All copyright their rightful owner.

“… the entire earth will be converted into a huge brain, as it were,

capable of response in every one of its parts”

“Thanks to radio

Nikola Tesla, 1904

1910s: Open IndustryPast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Wu, T. (2010) The Master Switch, Borzoi Books © All copyright their rightful owner. Stanley R., ‘Crystal radio receiver from wireless era’, Textbook on Wireless Telegraphy, Vol.1 from Wikimedia Commons under Public Domain

Rugby Pioneers (2010) Old School Medias under Creative CommonsWikimedia Commons (2010) Émetteur radiotélégraphique et radiotéléphonnique à arc. under Creative CommonsExperimenter Publishing Company (1920) Radio Amateur News Jun 1920 pg674 from Wikimedia Commons under Public Domain

1920s: Advent of AdvertisingPast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

“It is inconceivable that we should allow so greater

possibility for service, for news, for entertainment, for

education and for vital commercial purposes to be

drowned in advertising chatter”

Herbert Hoover, First National Radio Conference, 1922

First Radio Advertisement

Wu, T. (2010) The Master Switch, Borzoi Books © All copyright their rightful owner. Jackson Heights Properties (2010) Advertisements for Jackson Heights Apartments © All copyright their rightful owner

Change of Business ModelPast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Wu, T. (2010) The Master Switch, Borzoi Books, Homemade Dessert Recepies (2010) Old Time Radio Set, Polka Dot Salmon (2010) Broadcast © Polkadot Salmon 2007 Wikimedia Commons (2010) Industry Icon under Public Domain

OLD NEW

adria.richards (2010) dollar sign, Fugue (2007) Cigarette Advertisingcameronneylon (2009) Broadcasting Permitted, timothymorgan (2005) Person

1930s: Closed IndustryPast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Wu, T. (2010) The Master Switch, Borzoi Books, AT&T Logo © All copyright their rightful owner. bunky’s pickle (2009) Walter Barnes from Flickr under Creative CommonsSteve Parker (2007) RCA from Flickr under Creative Commons

Long Live the Web

Berners-Lee, T. (2010) ‘Long Live the Web’, Scientific American Magazine, December © 2010 Scientific American

PastPresent

FutureLessons

ToolsAct

“The Web as we know it, is being threatened in different ways”

Tim Berners-Lee, “Long Live the Web”Scientific American Magazine, December 2010

Wikimedia Commons (2010) Tim Berners-Lee at Campus Party Brasil, 2009 under Creative Commons

Closing Signs: Neutrality and Apps

PastPresent

FutureLessons

ToolsAct

Berners-Lee, T. (2010) ‘Long Live the Web’, Scientific American Magazine, December © 2010 Scientific American

The Next Web (2010) Eric Schmidt and Ivan Seidenberg © All copyright their rightful owneripadhouse.com (2010) iPad Media Application that Will Make Your Life Multifarious © Copyright

Closing Signs: Walled Gardens and Privacy

PastPresent

FutureLessons

ToolsAct

Berners-Lee, T. (2010) ‘Long Live the Web’, Scientific American Magazine, December © 2010 Scientific American

Robert S. Donovan (2009) The real impact of social networking while at work under Creative CommonsOmnysce (2009) HADOPI from Flickr under Creative Commons

Opening Sings:Legal Right and Next Billion

PastPresent

FutureLessons

ToolsAct

Berners-Lee, T. (2010) ‘Long Live the Web’, Scientific American Magazine, December © 2010 Scientific AmericanSavon Sanomat (2009) Lainsäätäjän otettava käyttöön kovat aseet © All copyright rightful owner

whiteafrican (2008) if it works in Africa... under Creative Commons

Opening Signs:Linked Data and Decentralization

PastPresent

FutureLessons

ToolsAct

Berners-Lee, T. (2010) ‘Long Live the Web’, Scientific American Magazine, December © 2010 Scientific AmericanSandro Hawke (2010) Introduction to Linked Data @ All copyright their rightful owner

Diaspora* (2010) Dan Made Some Awesome Flyers via BBC under Creative Commons

Future Internet ScenariosPast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Porous Garden Scenario Moats and Drawbridges Scenario

Common Pool Scenario Boutique Networks Scenarios

Internet Society (2010) Future Internet Scenarios: What Will The Internet Look Like in 10 Years © 2010 Internet Society

Lessons LearnedPast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Structural uncertainties and unimaginable events cannot be predicted probabilistically

Plan plausible and challenging future scenarios to expand the mindset and for better decisions today

Monitor signposts to recognize which scenario starts to unfold

Baraev, I. (2009) Future Scenario Planning in Strategic Management, Final Thesis Report, Tampere University of Applied Sciences. © All copyright their rightful owner

Learn MorePast

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

Future Scenario Planning

Black Swans

Book covers from ISBNLIB.com © 2009-2010 ISBNLIB.com

Schwartz, P. (1996) The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, Currency Doubleday © All copyright their rightfull ownerTaleb, N. N. (2008) The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, London, England, Penguin, © All copyright their rightfull owner

We choose…Past

PresentFuture

LessonsTools

Act

“People seem to think if Web starts to wither, well, that’s just one of those unfortunate things we can’t help. Not so.

We create the Web, by designing computer protocols and software; this process is completely under our control.

We choose what properties we want it to have and not have. “

Tim Berners-Lee, “Long Live the Web”Scientific American Magazine, December 2010

Berners-Lee, T. (2010) ‘Long Live the Web’, Scientific American Magazine, December © 2010 Scientific American

Future Is Not Written Yet

googlisti (2009) making ideas happen from Flickr under Creative CommonsHowdy, I’m H. Michael Karshis (2008) IBM Think D100 Test from Flickr under Creative Commons

Toons ‘N Tunes (2008) i believe in you © All copyright their rightful owner

Thank you!

Ilya Baraev, Nokia Design baraev Ilya Baraev

Jane F.T. Guesses at Futurity from RetroFuture.com under Public Domain

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Future Trends: What’s Next for the Internet by Ilya Baraev contains copyright material in accordance with principles of Fair Use, Fair Dealing, Right to Quote and similar principles in other jurisdictions, for the purpose of teaching, research and study and other non-profit educational purposes without permission from the rights holders, in the following jurisdictions:

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