Future TechnologiesFuture TechnologiesWhat tomorrow’s marketplace will want

Dr James Bellini 6 November 2008

Future TechnologiesFuture Technologies

What is the future business/social context?

What technologies best serve this future?

Invention Is Not Invention Is Not InnovationInnovation

Indoor Sundial 1878

Technology Must Fit Technology Must Fit NeedsNeeds

What Do People Want?What Do People Want?

‘Old’ Is Often ‘New’

Brain Map of the FuturistBrain Map of the Futurist

Key knowledge areas

History

technology

psychology

Arts

Energy

geographysociology

Geo-politics

science

statistics

2020: Key Concepts2020: Key Concepts

The future is size-neutral

The future is Big◦Big Shift◦Big Switch◦Big Information◦Big Technologies◦Big Baby-boomers◦Big Networks

‘The Future’ is about ways of seeing the present…’

Tools of the FuturistTools of the Futurist

Scenarios

Strong trends

Weak signals

Wild cards

A Doom Scenario A Doom Scenario DRIVERS OF A 2030 MELTDOWN

Depleting oil suppliesNuclear proliferationClimate changeGlobal water crunchEconomic disproportionDemographic revolution

Colin Mason The 2030 Spike

The Future Business/Social ContextThe Future Business/Social Context• Tomorrow’s Workplace• Wealth of Networks• Digital Natives

Where/How Will We Work?Where/How Will We Work?

The successful company of 2020 will have no HQ and no CEO, will own no IT and will have one-tenth the fixed assets it has today

It will be shaped by enterprise mobility technology, collegiate management and networked business ecosystems

You are here

Traditional Industrial Model

Virtual ModelVirtual Model

TASK

Contingent specialist

Knowledge broker

Shifting Networks Model

Metcalfe’s Law: ‘Value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of users’

A Free-Agent FutureA Free-Agent Future

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

UK Germany France

Telework

FreE-work

% total 2020 workforce

Source: Telework Association

Back To The FutureBack To The Future

‘‘In time the tools for leading a nomadic In time the tools for leading a nomadic business and social life will become cheap business and social life will become cheap enough for everyone’enough for everyone’

‘ ‘The biggest lifestyle change for 10,000 years The biggest lifestyle change for 10,000 years -- since humans settled down to farm -- will -- since humans settled down to farm -- will be delivered to most people in the be delivered to most people in the developed world’developed world’

Makimoto and MannersMakimoto and Manners

Digital NomadsDigital Nomads

Your Future MarketplaceYour Future Marketplace

The Wealth of NetworksThe Wealth of Networks

The networked information economy is replacing the industrial information economy

The aggregate effect of individual actions creates a new and rich virtual information universe

A Networked WorldA Networked World

In 1965 there were 10,000 people for every computer

In 2015 there will be 10,000 connected devices for every person

Building Collective Building Collective Memory Memory

In 2000 some 100 million devices were connected to the Net via RFID

By 2010 there will be 14 billion connections

“ The Internet is a far more speech enhancing medium than print, the village green, or the mails.... The Internet may fairly be regarded as a never-ending worldwide conversation”

US Federal Judge ACLU v Reno

Gutenberg 2.0Gutenberg 2.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2006 2010

Total Digital Information Created Per Year

exabytes

1 exabyte = a trillion big books Source: IDC

A Worldwide A Worldwide ConversationConversation

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1998 2000 2005 2010

Trillions per year

[ Includes p-to-p, spam and alerts ]

Instant messaging

E-mails

2003 2008

112 million

0

A Worldwide Conversation

Growth in blog sites

Doubling

Doubling

Doubling

Three Phases of the WebThree Phases of the Web

1960 2010

Arpanet

WWW

Rich broadband

Kilo – 103

Mega – 106

Giga – 109

Tera – 1012

Peta – 1015

Exa – 1018

Zetta – 1021

Yotta – 1024

I page, one site

100 million sites, 8 billion pages

The Promise of Web 3.0 The Promise of Web 3.0

Semantic Web: everything fused into one database – ‘mashups on steroids’

Searchable in natural language

Machines do the thinking◦ Sharper web-based marketing◦ More efficient customer building◦ Compliance, tax and reporting

A New Collective A New Collective IntelligenceIntelligence

Harnessing Collective IntelligenceHarnessing Collective Intelligence

Invented By StrangersInvented By Strangers

Re-inventing The WheelRe-inventing The Wheel

‘to build a car using the collectivecreativity of the Internet community’

OScar Manifesto

Enter The Digital NativeEnter The Digital Native

Connected

Creator-generators

Communicators

Completely digital

Drivers of Creator Economy

Web 3.0rich contentSecond Life

YouTube

vloggingringo

vodcasting

Web 2.0

flickr

snapfish

photobucket

webshotszoomr

wireless networking

Educating The Digital Educating The Digital NativeNative

10,000 hours playing video games

20,000 hours watching TV200,000 emails sent/received500,000 commercials viewed

5000 hours reading books

Digital Natives Are Digital Natives Are DifferentDifferent

Holistic entitySharing cultureMultiple identitiesVirtual mentality‘Connected’ empathyPost-mass market‘Dream’ consumers

Digital Natives:Digital Natives:

Demand information fastParallel process and multitaskDesire graphics / screen drivenWant random accessExpect frequent, instant rewardPlay games

Land Of The Digital Native

Digital Native Digital Native TechnologiesTechnologies

Quantum computing?Cloud/virtualisationVideo-to-mobileSaaS

Digital Native Digital Native TechnologiesTechnologies

Anything convergentAnything network-supportingAnything RFID-basedAnything logistics/inventory

A ‘Real’ Future?A ‘Real’ Future?

Robot Conducts the Detroit SymphonyBy Noah Ovshinsky

14 May 2008

Future TechnologiesFuture TechnologiesWhat tomorrow’s marketplace will want

Dr James Bellini 6 November 2008