Future of UK winter oilseed rape production
description
Transcript of Future of UK winter oilseed rape production
www.adas.co.uk
Future of UK winter oilseed rape production
James Clarke & Susan Twining
ADAS UK LtdPrepared for:
Crop Protection Association
Agricultural Industries Confederation
July 2009
Key messages
Winter oilseed rape provides a major benefit to UK agriculture
Major benefit to farmers’ rotations Gross margin, spreads fixed costs and provides
weed controlAlternatives will result in loss of profitability
Spring crops already viewed as less profitable and unacceptable options
Farmers and agronomists must act now to ensure this valuable crop is still available
Adopt best practice and participate in stewardship Protect water from herbicides and other pesticides
Skip to… presentation mapFuture of UK
winter oilseed rape production
UK OilseedRape
Production
OSR & pesticides
Impacts
Area &importance
Production &Prices
Markets Farming Trading Environment
Weed & PestControl
Rotations
Margins
Pesticide UseThreats to
OSR pesticideavailability
Inputs
Outputs
Protein
Carbon
Nitrogen
Biodiversity
Biodiesel
Summary
Contents
UK Oilseed Rape Production Threats to OSR pesticide availability Impacts
On farming On trading On the environment
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UK oilseed rape production
Area and importance Prices Uses
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Year
To
tal O
SR
are
a (t
ho
usa
nd
ha)
Trends in UK OSR area (winter & spring)
Source: Defra statistics
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Winter / Spring split 2004-2009
Source: Defra statistics
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
2004
2005
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2009
(est)
Year (2008 & 2009 provisionsal )
UK
% w
inte
r &
sp
rin
g O
SR
are
a (t
ho
usa
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ha)
Spring OSR Winter OSR
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Oilseed rape in the rotation
Wheat47%
Oilseed Rape13% Spring Barley
13%
Other Oilseeds
0%Oats3%
Sugar Beet3%
Other Stockfeed
1% Other Crops1%
Other Cereals1%
Potatoes3%Peas & Beans
3%
Winter Barley9%
Maize3%
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Oilseed rape in the rotation
Wheat47%
Oilseed Rape13%
Spring Barley13%
Other Oilseeds
0%Oats3%
Sugar Beet3%
Other Stockfeed
1% Other Crops1%
Other Cereals1%
Potatoes3%Peas & Beans
3%
Winter Barley9%
Maize3%
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Oilseed rape is an important break crop
Field Beans12%
Field Peas2%
Potatoes14%
Oilseed rape57%
Sugar Beet12%
Linseed2%
Others1%
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Source:HGCA
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0.0
0.5
1.0
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Year
Yie
ld (
ton
nes
/ h
a)
OSR yield trends
Source: Defra statistics
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UK oilseed production and prices
Source: Defra statistics
0
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1 000
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2 500
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2004
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2009
(est)
Pro
du
ctio
n (
'000
t)HomeBack
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UK oilseed production and prices
Source: Defra statistics
UK oilseed production and prices
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500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
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Pro
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'000
t)
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Pri
ce (
£/t)
Production Average market price
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OSR markets in UKExports,
10%
Crushing, 85%
Biodiesel, 3%
Specialist Uses, 2%
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Vegetable oil prices
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Protein prices
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Oilseed rape and pesticides
Pesticide use Threats to pesticide availability
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% of crop area treated with pesticides
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Threats to pesticide availability
EU legislation Thematic Strategy
Revision of 91/414/EEC Achievement of Annex 1 listing by 2010
Water Framework Directive (WFD) Resistance Commercial pressures on existing and new
products Pesticide manufacturers Food industry
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Oilseed rape active substances at risk
Revision of 91/414/EEC
Annex 1 listing WFD – chemical
WFD - ecological
cyproconazoleprochlorazcarbetamidenapropamidepropachlorquinmeractau fluvalinatezeta-cypermethrinmetaldehyde
carbetamideclopyralidglyphosatemetaldehydemetazachlorpropyzamide
carbendazim cyproconazole flusilazole glufosinate metconazole tebuconazole
carbendazimchlorothalonilchlorpyriphosinsecticides
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Impacts
Farming Trading Biodiversity
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Impacts on farming
Weed and pest control Rotations Margins
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Key losses 1 – black-grass control WFD – propyzamide,
carbetamide, metazachlor
Vital for control of black-grass
40% rape area affected
Major impact on yield (36% yield loss)
Equivalent to 280,000t loss production
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Loss of black-grass controlKey implications
OSR yields could be reduced by up to 1.2t/ha Up to £390/ha in lost gross margin – 75%
Yield loss from competition, increased herbicide costs Few alternative crops on heavy land Rotational implications are even bigger
Additional cost in wheat - £300/ha More ploughing, delayed sowing, yield loss, increased
herbicide costs Spread of work load and early entry for cereals lost
NB where black-grass is a problem
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Secondary Loss – up to £300/ha from winter
cereal margins
Two hits are greater than one!
Primary Loss – up to £390/ha from current OSR
margins
NB where black-grass is a problem
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Key losses 2 - slugs WFD & Annex 1 listing
– Metaldehyde Already under
scrutiny Complete crop losses
a possibility if lost Typically 3.5% yield
loss Replacements
(methiocarb) available – environmental & cost implications
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Loss of slug control
Average yields could be reduced by up to 0.2t/ha
Up to £60/ha in lost gross margin – 15% Alternative methods are more expensive
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Other areas of concern Revision of 91/414/EEC
– metconazole & tebuconazole
Used as PGRs as well as fungicides
Can provide additional 0.2 t/ha yield response in absence of disease.
On individual crops this could cause losses of £60/ha
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Alternative crops
Heavy land suited to winter cropping Winter field beans Spring cropping Fallow
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Rotational implications Main break crop in arable
rotations In black-grass areas provides
cleaning crop
If black-grass herbicides lost & control reduced;
Less favourable in black-grass infested fields
Alternative break crops (beans, spring cropping or fallow) may be sought
Increase in amount of ploughing to bury weed seeds
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Impacts on margin compared to current WOSR on fields with black-grass
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-500
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-100
0
WFDWOSR W Beans Sp OSR Sp Beans Peas Sp Barley Linseed Fallow
-600
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-200
-100
0
Margin Weeds SlugsPGR Aphids Overhead costs
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Impacts on UK trading
Inputs Outputs Protein Biodiesel
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Impacts on trading - inputs
Value Net change Seed £21 million Redistribution Pesticides £80 million Redistribution Fertiliser £76 million £57 million
Based on switch to field beans and linseed Switch to fallow would have larger impacts in all
areas
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Impacts on trading - outputs
Value Crop £400 million
Oil £480 million Rape meal £110 million
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Sources of protein for livestock
Protein Source
% Protein 12 month moving total
(Mar 09) thousand
tonnes
%
Soya meal 44-50 1,152 43
Rape Meal 34-36 733 28
Sunflower Meal
27-30 253 10
Other oilseed meals
435 16
Field Beans 23-26 63 2
Field Peas 20-24 25 1
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Cost of protein
Ex port UK average
Spot price Price per 1% protein
Hypro soya meal
£312/t £6.24
Rape meal £167/t £4.77
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Bio Diesel,
84%
Bio Ethanol,
16%
Bio Gas, 0%
Biofuel use in UK 2008/09
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Soya, 41%
Uncertain origin, 3%
Unknown origin, 4%
Tallow, 10%
Sunflower, 0%
Palm, 12%
Oilseed rape, 30%
Feedstock for UK biodiesel production
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Country of origin of oilseed rape feedstock
Other, 2 Canada, 7
France, 3
Germany, 55
Ukraine, 1
UK, 7
USA, 6
Unknown, 19
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Impacts on the environment
Carbon emissions Nitrogen Biodiversity
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Carbon Emissions
Emissions from; Production of raw materials (fertilisers,
pesticides, seed) Fuel usage in transport of raw materials & final
product Fuel usage in tractors & other farm operations Soils as a result of nitrogen application & residue
incorporation From disposal of waste (plastics & packaging)
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Carbon impacts of OSR production
Large amounts of N applied High emissions involved in production of
N N2O released as a result of application Nitrogen approximately = 50% of total
emissions
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Carbon emissions from arable crops
Crop t CO2e / ha Yield t/ha t CO2e / t
Winter oilseed rape 4.6 3.2 1.45
Winter feed wheat 4.6 8.3 0.55
Winter bread wheat 4.8 7.5 0.64
Winter beans 0.6 6.6 0.09
Spring feed wheat 1.0 5.8 0.15
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GHG savings of biodiesel from different feedstock compared to diesel
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Autumn nitrate levels by previous crop
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Biodiversity
Nesting sites reed bunting
Feeding on stubbles and crops yellowhammer, linnet
But also good for pigeons!
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Summary – winter oilseed rape has a…
Farming Major benefit to farmers rotations
Gross margin, spreads fixed costs and provides weed control
Trade Positive effects on UK balance of payments Significant requirement for N and crop protectionEnvironment Good crop cover in autumn to reduce nutrient
leaching and soil erosion risks Value to birds by providing feed and nest sites
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www.adas.co.uk
Future of UK winter oilseed rape production
James Clarke & Susan Twining
ADAS UK LtdPrepared for:
Crop Protection Association
Agricultural Industries Confederation
July 2009
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