Future of the Internet j - Corvelle Consulting · Information technology related management...

File: Future of the Internet.PPT 1

Yogi Schulz

Future of the Internet

CIPS Calgary LuncheonPresenter: Yogi Schulz

The Futureof the Internetisn’t whatit used to be

October 2004 Copyright © 2004 by Corvelle Management Consultants


Yogi Schulz

Future of the InternetManagement Consultants

Yogi SchulzBiography

� President of Corvelle Management Consultants

� Information technology related management consulting

� Project management and systems development

� Computing Canada & Calgary Herald columnist

� PPDM Association board member

� Industry presenter:

– Project World - 4 years

– CIPS Informatics - 7 years

– PMI - Information Systems SIG

– PPDM Association - several years


Yogi Schulz



Yogi Schulz


The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 1

� Secure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear war

� Fast communication system for US Department of Defense and its military contractors

� Global system of hypertext linkages to cross-reference academic documents across computers

� Fast, shared communication system for large corporations

� A way to apply computing without sending vast sums of money to Microsoft


Yogi Schulz



� Replacement for Fedexing documents

� A whole new media channel for:

– Distributing information

– Delivering entertainment & education

– Collaborating for business or pleasure

� System to:

– Perform rapid research (with limitations)

– Conduct business with consumers – B2C

– Improve social life

� Get rich quick scheme based on dubious products & services


Yogi Schulz



� A software distribution/update mechanism

� Cheap, fast, shared communication system for everyone

� System to conduct business:

– Among businesses – B2B

– With government

� A turbo-charged way to:

– Defraud the innocent & the naive

– Aggravate & disrupt the lives of many

– Operate a global casino without spending billions


Yogi Schulz



� Basis for warfare:

– Disrupt enemy communication

– Disable enemy weapons

– Freeze enemy financial assets

– Avoid casualties on the evening news

� Replacement for:

– The telephone system

– Video conferencing

� A shared infrastructure to enable:

– Media convergence

– Wireless communication system

– On-demand television


Yogi Schulz


The Future of the Internet Outline

� Security will improve

� Internet access will be ubiquitous

� Web Services will connect organizations

� IT products will morph into services

� Software development will rely on module re-use

� Recommendations

� Questions & Answers


Yogi Schulz


SecuritySurvey

� actually produced a disaster recovery plan after deferring the work for many years?

� a paper shredder in use at home?

� a firewall installed at home?

� their social security number with them?

� their password written on a sticky note?

� anti-virus and anti-spyware installed at home?

Foil fraud artists


Yogi Schulz


Security will improve

� Biometric identification:

– Fingerprint, Palm vein

– Iris, Lips

– Keying behavior on keyboard

� Technical identification:

– SecurId

– USB fob

– Smart Card

� Less total freedom to be irresponsible:

– Authentication will be required

– Repudiation will become more difficult

The end of privacy & anonymity?


Yogi Schulz


Internet AccessSurvey

� high-speed Internet access at home?

� WiFi wireless access at home? At work?

� wireless e-mail access via Blackberry/PDA?

� experienced dropped calls or sessions?

� experimented with VOIP?

� used wireless access at Starbucks? Hotels?

� found Internet access in remote corners of the world?

� mooched Internet access from an open WiFi wireless access point?


Yogi Schulz


Internet Accesswill be ubiquitous

� Internet 2– Higher volume of traffic

– Improved network management

– High bandwidth applications

� Cable/ADSL availability

� gigabit Ethernet and ATM

� IPng - Next Generation Internet Protocol– IP version 6 (IPv6)

� VOIP, WiFi to cell phone and back hand off

The end of “getting away from it all”?


Yogi Schulz


Buying OnlineSurvey

� bought consumer goods & services online?

� abandoned a shopping cart? Reasons?

� bought business goods & services online?

� identified product and merchant on the Web but then bought the item via the 1 800 number? Reasons?

� responded to a customer complaint about buying at your organization’s web site?


Yogi Schulz


� Mobile agents

� RosettaNet

� ebXML

� UDDI

� WS-<alphabet soup>

E-commerce is not dead

WS-Trust

WS-Security

Web Services Interoperability

WS-MetadataExchange

WS-Addressing

WS-Eventing

WS-ServiceGroup

WS-BaseFaults

Web Services willconnect organizations


Yogi Schulz


Software & HardwareSurvey

� objected to software vendor licensing terms?

– Made any headway?

� used Apache Web Server or MySQL?

� experimented with a Linux desktop?

� installed OpenOffice?

– Tried to inter-operate with Microsoft Office?

� contracted for on-demand server computing?


Yogi Schulz


IT products will morph into servicesSoftware

� Software vendors are changing terms from high upfront license fee to annual license fee

� Open source OS

� Pay for software usage by the month

� Microsoft - Software Assurance

� Sun Microsystems:

– Java Enterprise System

– Java Desktop System

Qbyteonline

A win-win buyer and seller?


Yogi Schulz


IT products will morph into servicesHardware

� Commodity computing

� Service oriented architecture

� Cluster

� Grid

A solution forunpredictable demand swings?


Yogi Schulz


� surfed to http://freshmeat.net?– Actually implemented any of the software?

� contemplated installing the Compiere Open Source ERP software application?

� read about the Open Source Website Content Management System?

� considered an open source application to:– Control cost?

– Influence software development priorities & pace?

Software developmentSurvey


Yogi Schulz


Software development will rely heavily on module re-use

� Microsoft modules for re-use:– ActiveX controls marketplace

– Language-specific code samples

� Java modules for re-use:– Java applets

– JavaBeans components

� Reducing what developers have to code:– Operating system scope expanding

– Application server software capabilities increasing

– Open source modules increasing in scope/quality

Hype: Software almost writes itself


Yogi Schulz


Conclusions

� The future of the Internet will surprise us

� We tend to under-estimate the pace of progress in technology

� We tend to over-estimate the pace at which people are prepared to adopt technology

The Future of the Internet

isn’t what it used to be


Yogi Schulz


KeepingUp

Don’t languish behind,

The Internet still offers many possibilities!


Yogi Schulz


Recommendations

� Monitor Internet technology developments

� Investigate promising emerging technology

� Match technology to business problems and opportunities

� Pilot technology in modest ways

� Don’t over-commit to:– Benefits

– Implementation costs & schedules

– Customer adoption ratesCan be rewarding

& lots of fun


Yogi Schulz


Questions & Answers

Elroy will

explain it

to you


Yogi Schulz


1800, 250 - 6th Ave. S.W.Calgary, Alberta Canada T2P 3H7

Phone/Fax: (403) 249-5255E-mail: [email protected]

Web: www.corvelle.com

President of Corvelle Management Consultants

Information technology related management consulting

Project management and systems development

Computing Canada & Calgary Herald columnist

PPDM Association board member

Future of the Internetisn’t what it used to be

Management Consultants


Yogi Schulz


A Brief Historyof the Internet - 1

� 1957 U. S. government forms Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) as a defense initiative

� 1968 ARPANET, the precursor of the Internet, is launched to connect Department of Defense (DoD) with military contractors

� 1970s ARPA and Stanford develop packet switching - TCP/IP

� 1972 Scientist start to use ARPANET for E-mail

� 1973 The term Internet is first used

� 1981 ARPANET grows to 213 hosts

� 1983 TCP/IP becomes the standard protocol

� 1984 The term cyberspace is coined by author William Gibson


Yogi Schulz



� 1984 ARPANET grows to 1,000 hosts

� 1985 NSFNet begins; takes over Internet

� March 15 1985 - the first registered domain name was symbolics.com

� 1990 The phrase World Wide Web is coined by Tim Berners-Lee. He is considered the inventor of the Web

� 1990 NSF lifts ban on commercial hosts on Internet

� 1991 PSI Net begins as first commercial ISP

� 1992 Network Solutions wins bid to register domain extensions

� 1992 Internet reaches 1,000,000 hosts

� 1993 World Wide Web designed by Tim Berners-Lee

� 1993 MOSAIC browser developed at University of Illinois under federal grant


Yogi Schulz



� 1993 Internet reaches 2,000,000 hosts

� 1993 Netscape Communications is founded

� 1994 The first bank opens online; Pizza Hut offers online pizza order and delivery

� 1994 – Yahoo starts as "Jerry's Guide to the World Wide Web"

� 1995 James Gosling of Sun Microsystems introduces Java

� 1995 PC-to-PC Voice over IP began by hobbyists in Israel

� 1996 Microsoft feels threatened by Internet growth in importance; re-prioritizes software development

� 1996 Yahoo search engine is launched

� 1997 The one millionth domain name is registered


Yogi Schulz



� 1998 More than 300 million web pages exist; growing by 1.5 million pages per day

� 1998 VOIP first PC-to-Phone and later Phone-to-Phone connections

� September 7, 1998 - Google Inc.opens for business

� 1999 B2C E-commerce, portals and electronic auctions become popular

� 1999 Consumer high-speed access widely adopted

� 2000 B2B E-commerce gains momentum

� 2000 AOL Time Warner merger announced

� 2001 B2B Marketplaces experiment with mixed success

� 2001 Internet startup frenzy implodes

� 2001 EBay reaches $10 billion sales; exceeds 35 million users


Yogi Schulz



� 2001 W3C Publishes Web Services Description Language (WSDL)

� 2001 The first live distributed musical

� 2001 SETI@Home launches

� 2001 Napster litigation forces it to suspend service

� 2001 European Council finalizes an international cybercrime treaty

� 2001 Code Red worm and Sircam virus infiltrate thousands of web servers and email accounts

� 2002 Having your own Blog becomes hip

� 2002 A distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack struck the 13 DNS root servers


Yogi Schulz



� 2003 The first official Swiss online election takes place in Anières

� 2003 SQL Slammer worm causes one of the largest and fastest spreading DDoS attacks

� 2003 Flash mobs, organized over the Net, start in New York and quickly form in cities worldwide

� 2003 Taxes make headlines as larger US Internet retailers begin collecting taxes on all purchases

� 2004 WS-Security

� 2004 Google IPO

Internet Archive:http://www.archive.org


Yogi Schulz


Bibliography - 1

� A Brief History of the World Wide Web – www.walthowe.com/navnet/history.html

� A Little History of the World Wide Web– www.w3.org/History.html

� Biometric Identification– et.wcu.edu/aidc/BioWebPages/Biometrics_Eye.html

� Creative Licensing– Erik Heinrich, EDGE, September 2004, p. 14

� Digital dilemmas– The Economist, Jan 23rd, 2003– www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=1534303

� Electrolux Screenfridge– www.electrolux.com/screenfridge

� Future of the Internet and Web– www.cs.purdue.edu/homes/bxd/inter/futureineweb.html


Yogi Schulz


Bibliography - 2

� Hardware, On Demand Help Drive IBM's Profit – Erin Joyce, January 15, 2004 – www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3299631

� Hobbes' Internet Timeline v7.0– www.zakon.org/robert/internet/timeline/

� How big brother and big media can put the Internet genie back in the bottle

– John Walker, Revision 4 -- November 4th, 2003– www.fourmilab.ch/documents/digital-imprimatur

� IBM - Capacity on demand – www-1.ibm.com/servers/eserver/iseries/ondemand/cod/

� Internet histories– www.isoc.org/internet/history

� Internet Society– www.isoc.org

� Internet2– www.internet2.edu


Yogi Schulz


Bibliography - 3

� Mobile Agents and the Future of the Internet – www.cs.dartmouth.edu/~dfk/papers/kotz:future2/

� NASA Research and Education Network (NREN) – www.nren.nasa.gov/about/index.html

� On-Demand Computing– www.computerworld.com/hardwaretopics/hardware/report/0,11188,06282004,

00.html

� Software as a Service: Choosing an Effective Model– www.accelacomm.com/jlp/BellSaas-txtEm2/22/10002557/

� Utility Computing– www.utilitycomputing.com

� Voice over IP 101 - Juniper Networks– whitepapers.informationweek.com/detail/RES/1099072997_513.html?src=mu_

p_j2e

� World Wide Web Consortium– www.w3c.org


Yogi Schulz


Screenfridge

� Internal communication

� External communication

� Food management

� News, radio and home security

� Digital cook book

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