Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion. The Future of the Internet ARMA Calgary February 10, 2010 2.
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Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Corvelle Drives Concepts to CompletionCorvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
The Futureof the Internet
ARMA CalgaryFebruary 10, 2010
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Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Yogi SchulzBiography
Partner in Corvelle Consulting Information technology related management
consulting Microsoft Canada columnist & CBC Radio host PPDM Association board member Industry presenter:
– Project World - 5 years– CIPS Informatics - 7 years– PMI - Information Systems SIG - 2 years– Convergence - 4 years– PPDM Association - several years
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Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
The Future of the Internetat various points in the past
Secure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear war
System to conduct business Cheap, fast, shared communication system
for everyone A whole new media channel System to improve social life Basis for warfare
Estonia urged NATO to develop a unified strategyagainst "cyber-terrorists" today after suspectedRussian hackers launched a third wave of attackson leading government, banking andmedia websites this week.19 May 2007 4
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Cyber War:Sabotaging the System
• Brazilian disruption of electrical power networks initiated by hackers
• China Expands Cyberspying in U.S.
• The New E-spionage Threat
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Close toHome
“Great news, Mrs. Janoski!We put a video of your tummy-tuck surgery
on YouTube,And it’s currently ranked second!”6
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Evolution from Web 1.0to Web 2.0
Internet
Mostly text content
End-user generated content
Web 1.0
Web 2.0
End-user input
Multi-media content7
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Increasing Online Sales
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Over 72 million active sites
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World Wide Web map
Number of Web Siteson the Web
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
The Future of the Internet Outline
Social computing will expand to business Internet access will be ubiquitous The Web will become faster The Web will become smarter Security will improve IT products will morph into services Recommendations Questions & Answers
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Social ComputingSurvey
created a personal profile onFacebook, MySpace, Second Life?
played FarmVille? written personal blog entries? written a review at Amazon? posted pictures at Flickr? posted video at YouTube? produced content for the Web?
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Daily Weblog Postings
1.4 million posts per day
Daily Weblog Postings
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New Hobbieson the Internet
How did anyonesurvive before the
Internet?
Isn’t it truly amazinghow a day after Matthew
takes off his shirt, wecan all enjoy it?
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The future of Social Networks
Companies:– operate FaceBook groups & YouTube channels– offer chat to customers– host discussion forums
Individuals:– stay in touch with family & friends– promote causes– participate in political action
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Internet AccessSurvey
abandoned phones for VOIP? used wireless access at Starbucks? found Internet access in remote
corners of the world? mooched Internet access from
an open WiFi access point? surfed the Web using a phone?
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InternetEverywhere
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T-Mobile HotSpot @Home
+ $ 20.00 per month In a Wi-Fi wireless
Internet hot spot,all your calls are free
Phone hands offyour calls fromWi-Fi network to cell networkseamlessly and automatically
Includes a wireless router for your home
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Novatel MiFi
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
PCs vs. Cell PhonesProjected Shipments
Over 700 million phones
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Internet-CapableCell Phones
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Chinese InformationHighway
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Revenge of the PCs?
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Netbook
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The Future of Internet Access
Internet 2 Cable/ADSL Rural Internet Satellite services Municipal WiFi Device convergence
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Faster Web Survey
waited and waited for web pages to load? noticed significant variability when loading
the same web page? rented movies because the download time
takes hours? abandoned an online purchase because the
hour glass stayed on forever?
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Internet speed by country
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The Future of Internet Speed
Internet 2 Faster web browsers Higher speed Cable/ADSL Higher speed cell phone network Higher speed in-home network
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Smarter Web Survey
not found what you were searching for? failed to re-find a page you’ve seen before? become tired of typing the same personal
information over and over and over? received unexpected/embarrassing pages in
the results set? found exactly what you were looking for; only
it’s in Chicago?
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Mobile agents RosettaNet ebXML UDDI WS-<alphabet
soup>
Web Services willconnect organizations
}WS-Trust
WS-SecurityWeb Services Interoperability
WS-MetadataExchangeWS-Addressing
WS-EventingWS-ServiceGroup
WS-BaseFaults
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Web characteristic Today FutureSearch evaluation String
matchingContextual understanding
Content importance PageRank End-user taggingAutomated ranking
Personal profiles Limited,Sporadic
RicherMore consistent
Spatial awareness Limited Integrated GPS
Multi-application integration
Non-existent
Noticeable through XML
The Future Semantic Web
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
SecuritySurvey
actually produced a disaster recovery plan after deferring the work for many years?
been hesitant about creating a profile? a paper shredder in use at home? their social security number with them? their password written on a sticky note? a firewall, anti-virus and anti-spyware
installed at home?
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The Future of Security
Biometric identification:
Technical identification:
Less total freedom to be irresponsible:
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Software &Hardware Survey
implemented virtualization technology contracted for on-demand
server computing? used open source software? installed OpenOffice? developed software
through crowdsourcing?
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Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
IT products will morph into servicesSoftware as a Service
Open source software
Pay for software usage by the month
Web-accessible office software
IT infrastructure management
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Qbyteonline
JavaEnterprise
System
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
IT products will morph into servicesHardware as a Service
Commodity computing Service oriented architecture Cluster Grid
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What will the future of the Internetmean to business?
Enhance distributed collaboration Enhance supply chain performance Improve work/life balance Improve integration of field and
head office business processes Address the potential of
knowledge management
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Conclusions
The future of the Internet will surprise us
We tend to under-estimate the pace of progress in technology
We tend to over-estimate the pace at which people are prepared to adopt technology
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KeepingUp
Don’t languish behind,
The Internet offersmany possibilities!
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Recommendations
Monitor Internet technology developments Experiment using emerging Web services Match technology to business problems and
opportunities Pilot Web services in modest ways Don’t over-commit
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Questions & Answers
Elroy will
explain it
to you
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Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Future of the Internet
Corvelle Consulting700, 205 - 5 Ave. S. W.Calgary, Alberta T2P 2V7Phone: (403) 249-5255E-mail: [email protected]: www.corvelle.com
Yogi SchulzPartner of Corvelle ConsultingInformation technology related
management consultingMicrosoft Canada columnist
& CBC Radio hostIndustry presenterPPDM Association board member
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Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Man – ComputerIntegration
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Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
searched for Open Source software components?
contemplated installing the Compiere Open Source ERP software application?
read about the Open Source Website Content Management System?
participated in an Open Source community?
considered an open source application?
SoftwareDevelopment
Survey
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Software development will rely heavily on module re-use
Microsoft modules Java modules Applications built
on tools Reducing what
developers have to code
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Supplemental Slides
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Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Top 10 Sites
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Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Mobile Web-surfingGrowth
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Websitesvisited after
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Top-10 Malware Sites
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Internet speed by country
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Number of WeblogsOver 70 million blogs
Number of Weblogs
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USA HolidayOnline Spending
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2009 Holiday Season vs. 2008 Non-Travel Retail Spending Source: comScore, Inc.
Millions ($)
2008 2009 Percent Change
November 1 – December 24 $25,845 $27,121 5%
Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 26) $288 $318 10%
Black Friday (Nov. 27) $534 $595 11%
Cyber Monday (Nov. 30) $834 $887 5%
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Web SearchActivity Share
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Search Entity Share of Searches (%)
October 2009
November 2009
Point Change
Google Sites 65.4% 65.6% 0.2
Yahoo! Sites 18.0% 17.5% -0.5
Microsoft Sites 9.9% 10.3% 0.4
Ask Network 3.9% 3.8% -0.1
AOL Network 2.9% 2.8% -0.1
Total Search 100.0% 100.0% N/A
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Future ofelectronic books
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AmazonKindle
Sonyereader
Barnes & NobleNook
MSI Dual screen slate
Apple iPAD
Corvelle Drives Concepts to Completion
Bibliography - 1
A Brief History of the World Wide Web – www.walthowe.com/navnet/history.html
A Little History of the World Wide Web– www.w3.org/History.html
Biometric Identification– et.wcu.edu/aidc/BioWebPages/Biometrics_Eye.html
Classmate PC by Intel– www.classmatepc.com/index.html
Creative Licensing– Erik Heinrich, EDGE, September 2004, p. 14
Digital dilemmas– The Economist, Jan 23rd, 2003– www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?Story_id=1534303
Eight business technology trends to watch– http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/High_Tech/Strategy_Analysis/Eight_business_technology_trends_to_wat
ch_2080?gp=1 Electrolux Screenfridge
– www.electrolux.com/screenfridge
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Bibliography - 2
Future of the Internet and Web– www.cs.purdue.edu/homes/bxd/inter/futureineweb.html
Hardware, On Demand Help Drive IBM's Profit – Erin Joyce, January 15, 2004 – www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3299631
Histories of the Internet– www.isoc.org/internet/history– en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_history– www.let.leidenuniv.nl/history/ivh/frame_theorie.html
Hobbes' Internet Timeline v7.0– www.zakon.org/robert/internet/timeline
How the internet has woven itself into American life– www.pewinternet.org/PPF/r/148/report_display.asp
How big brother and big media can put the Internet genie back in the bottle– John Walker, Revision 4 -- November 4th, 2003– www.fourmilab.ch/documents/digital-imprimatur
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Bibliography - 3 IBM - Capacity on demand
– www-1.ibm.com/servers/eserver/iseries/ondemand/cod/ IBM Makes Social Computing Push For Business
– Internet News, January 23, 2007– www.internetnews.com/ent-news/article.php/3655391– www-142.ibm.com/software/sw-lotus/products/product3.nsf/wdocs/connections
Inside Reality - Improve collaborative decision making– www.slb.com/content/services/software/virtual
Internet histories– www.isoc.org/internet/history
Internet Society– www.isoc.org
Internet2– www.internet2.edu
IPhone-Free Cellphone News – By David Pogue, New York Times. July 5, 2007– www.nytimes.com/2007/07/05/technology/circuits/05pogue.html?
ex=1186459200&en=45706190e9cee2fb&ei=5070
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Bibliography - 4 Mobile Agents and the Future of the Internet
– www.cs.dartmouth.edu/~dfk/papers/kotz:future2/ NASA Research and Education Network (NREN)
– www.nren.nasa.gov/about/index.html On-Demand Computing
– www.computerworld.com/hardwaretopics/hardware/report/0,11188,06282004,00.html One Laptop per Child (OLPC)
– laptop.org Pattie Maes and Pranav Mistry demo SixthSense
– http://www.ted.com/talks/pattie_maes_demos_the_sixth_sense.html Rich Internet application
– en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Internet_application– www.adobe.com/devnet/ria/– theopensourcery.com/xmlria.htm
Software as a Service: Choosing an Effective Model– www.accelacomm.com/jlp/BellSaas-txtEm2/22/10002557/
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Bibliography - 5 Taming the World Wide Web
– A rising tide of companies are tapping Semantic Web technologies to unearth hard-to-find connections between disparate pieces of online data
– by Rachael King – www.businessweek.com/technology/content/apr2007/tc20070409_248062.htm?chan=search
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Bibliography - 6 Utility Computing
– www.utilitycomputing.com Unveiling the genius of multi-touch interface design
– Jeff Han– www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/65
Voice over IP 101 - Juniper Networks– whitepapers.informationweek.com/detail/RES/1099072997_513.html?src=mu_p_j2e
W3C - One Web: Going Mobile– Steve Bratt, W3C - One Web: Going Mobile– www.w3.org/2006/Talks/1106-sb-OneWeb-Mobile2/#(1)
Web 2.0 Directory : eConsultant World Wide Web Consortium
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The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 1
Secure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear war
Fast communication system for US Department of Defense and its military contractors
Global system of hypertext linkages to cross-reference academic documents across computers
Fast, shared communication system for large corporations
A way to apply computing without sending vast sums of money to Microsoft
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The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 2
Replacement for Fedexing documents A whole new media channel for:
– Distributing information – Delivering entertainment & education– Collaborating for business or pleasure
System to:– Perform rapid research (with limitations)– Conduct business with consumers – B2C– Improve social life
Get rich quick scheme based on dubious products & services
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The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 3
A software distribution/update mechanism Cheap, fast, shared communication system for
everyone System to conduct business:
– Among businesses – B2B– With government
A turbo-charged way to:– Defraud the innocent & the naive– Aggravate & disrupt the lives of many– Operate a global casino without spending billions
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The Future of the Internetat various points in the past - 4
Basis for warfare:– Disrupt enemy communication– Disable enemy weapons– Freeze enemy financial assets– Avoid casualties on the evening news
Replacement for:– The telephone system– Video conferencing
A shared infrastructure to enable:– Media convergence– Wireless communication system– On-demand television
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A Brief History of the Internet
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A Brief Historyof the Internet - 1
1957 U. S. government forms Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) as a defense initiative
1968 ARPANET, the precursor of the Internet, is launched to connect Department of Defense (DoD) with military contractors
1970s ARPA and Stanford develop packet switching - TCP/IP 1971 Ray Tomlinson of ARPANET sent the world's first e-mail 1972 Scientist start to use ARPANET for E-mail 1973 The term Internet is first used 1981 ARPANET grows to 213 hosts 1982 first Newsgroups established 1983 TCP/IP becomes the standard protocol 1984 The term cyberspace is coined by author William Gibson 1984 ARPANET grows to 1,000 hosts
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A Brief Historyof the Internet - 2
1985 NSFNet begins; takes over Internet 1985, 15 March – first registered domain name was symbolics.com 1989 Tim Berners-Lee wrote the first web client and server 1990 Tim Berners-Lee’s specifications of URIs, HTTP and HTML refined as
Web technology spread 1990 The phrase World Wide Web is coined by Tim Berners-Lee. He is
considered the inventor of the Web 1990 NSF lifts ban on commercial hosts on Internet 1990 Archie, first search engine, developed at McGill University 1991 PSI Net begins as first commercial ISP 1991 Gopher system - improvement on ftp retrieval developed 1992 Network Solutions wins bid to register domain extensions 1992 Internet reaches 1,000,000 hosts 1993 MOSAIC browser developed at University of Illinois under federal
grant
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A Brief Historyof the Internet - 3
1993 Internet reaches 2,000,000 hosts 1993 Netscape Communications is founded 1994 The first bank opens online 1994 Pizza Hut offers online pizza order and delivery 1994 first International World Wide Web Conferences held 1994 Yahoo starts as "Jerry's Guide to the World Wide Web" 1994, 7 July – Fraunhofer Society released the first MP3 software 1995 Internet access providers Compuserve, Aol and Prodigy began 1995 PC-to-PC Voice over IP began by hobbyists in Israel 1995, 3 September – eBay launched 1995, 15 December – AltaVista launched as an Internet search engine 1995 Amazon.com launched 1996 Microsoft feels threatened by Internet growth in importance; re-
prioritizes software development
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A Brief Historyof the Internet - 4
1996 Yahoo Internet search engine is launched 1997 The one millionth domain name is registered 1997 Net2Phone Direct (Phone-to-Phone Over IP) launched in the USA 1998 More than 300 million web pages exist; growing by 1.5 million
pages per day 1998 VOIP first PC-to-Phone and later Phone-to-Phone connections 1998, 7 September – Google Inc.opens for business 1999 B2C E-commerce, portals and electronic auctions become popular 1999 Consumer high-speed access widely adopted 1999 MySpace.com is launched 1999 wireless technology called 802.11b or Wi-Fi is standardized 2000 B2B E-commerce gains momentum 2000 AOL Time Warner merger announced
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A Brief Historyof the Internet - 5
2001 B2B Marketplaces experiment with mixed success 2001 Internet startup frenzy implodes 2001 eBay reaches $10 billion sales; exceeds 35 million users 2001 W3C Publishes Web Services Description Language (WSDL) 2001 Napster litigation forces it to suspend service 2001 The first live distributed musical 2001 SETI@Home launches 2001 European Council finalizes an international cyber-crime treaty 2001 Code Red worm and Sircam virus infiltrate thousands of web
servers and email accounts 2002 Having your own Blog becomes hip 2002 A distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack struck the 13
DNS root servers
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A Brief Historyof the Internet - 6
2003 Spam, unsolicited email, becomes a server-clogging menace. It accounts for about half of all emails
2003 The first official Swiss online election takes place in Anières 2003 SQL Slammer worm causes one of the largest and fastest spreading DDoS
attacks 2003 Flash mobs, organized over the Net, start in New York and quickly form in
cities worldwide 2003 first Weblog site launched 2003 Second Life launched 2003 May LinkedIn launched 2003 Taxes make headlines as larger US Internet retailers begin collecting taxes on
all purchases 2003 The Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) sues 261 individuals
for distributing copyright music files 2003 Internet users illegally download about 2.6 billion music files each month
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A Brief Historyof the Internet - 7
2003 Apple Computer introduces Apple iTunes Music Store 2003 Last Abilene Internet segment upgraded to 10Gbps 2004 WS-Security 2004 February - Facebook was founded by Mark Zuckerberg 2004 Google IPO 2004 more instances of DNS root servers outside the USA 2004 VeriSign (VNDS) begins updating authoritative name servers
in near real-time 2004 CERNET2 – first backbone IPv6 network in China 2004 Internet Worm, called MyDoom or Novarg, spreads through
Internet servers 2004 Online spending reaches a record high - $117 billion, a 26%
increase over 2003 2004, 9 November – Firefox Internet browser released
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A Brief Historyof the Internet - 8
2005 One Laptop Per Child project begins 2005 YouTube.com is launched 2005 News Corporation's Fox Interactive Media
buys MySpace 2006 Estimated 92 – 100 million Web sites online 2006 July Twitter launched publicly 2006, 14 November Microsoft launches Zune 2006 Google acquires YouTube for $1.65 billion
in a stock-for-stock transaction
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A Brief Historyof the Internet - 9
2007 February Apple surpasses one billion iTunes downloads
2007 March 1.1 billion people use the Internet according to Internet World Stats
April 2007 Search engine giant Google surpasses Microsoft as "the most valuable global brand," and also is the most visited Web site
2007 – Amazon.com sales exceed $ 3 Billion 2008 - Hulu launches; an online video site for
copyrighted work by major networks, December 2009 Ciplex Builds World's First Multi-Touch
Website Using Silverlight Internet Archive:http://www.archive.org 76
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Social Computingin Business
IBM's new social computing platform, Lotus Connections, includes five basic components:
Profiles - Find the people you need Communities - Work with people who
share common interests and expertise Blogs - Present your own ideas and
learn from others Dogear - Save and share bookmarks Activities - Organize your work and
tap your professional network
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Mobile Subscriptionsby Region
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