The Future of E-learning

Jon Dron and Terry Anderson (2016) The Future of E-learning. In the SAGE Handbook of E-learning Research (2016) Second Edition. Edited by Caroline Haythornthwaite, Richard Andrews, Jude Fransman and Eric M. Meyers. Sage

• This is not the first attempt to predict the future of e-learning and our first confident prediction is that it will not be the last.

• “E-learning is a combination of methods, structures and networked electronic tools orchestrated into systems that bring about, or are intended to bring about, learning.”

http://www.moodlenews.com/2013/future-of-elearning-infographic-highlights-trends-and-stats-by-amvonet/

http://venturebeat.com/2016/09/05/moocs-no-longer-massive-still-attract-millions/

E-Learning is not only Institutional

• “Almost everything shared on the Internet, almost every interaction, is an opportunity for learning, whether deliberately sought (e.g. Google, Wikipedia, MOOCs, YouTube) or as a side-effect of interaction (e.g. Facebook, email, Twitter).”

• On the Internet, almost everyone is a teacher and everyone is a learner, whether intentionally, effectively, accurately, reliably or not.

Edinburgh Scenarios (Bell & Stewart, 2004)

Virtually Vanilla

Toonlet.com

Blended Learning

Recorded Lectures

Virtually Vanillasame pedagogy - new technology

http://venturebeat.com/2016/09/05/moocs-no-longer-massive-still-attract-millions/

Back(wards) to the Future

Majority of both students and teachersprefer Face-to-Face teaching/learning

Back(wards) to the Future

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/may/16/schools-mobile-phones-academic-results

Web of Confidence

MOOCs

Web of Confidence

You Choose – frustrated learners take control themselves

Diversity

All of the Edinburgh Futures are thriving- now and in the foreseeable future

Mapping to 3 Generations of Distance Education Pedagogy

1. Cognitive-behavioural (instructivist)2. Social Constructivist3. Connectivist

Technologies of the Future Adapted to E-Learning

http://www.ues-wosc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/edtech-1024x389.png

Learning and Teaching Analytics

Collective technologies

Artificial Intelligence

http://europe.newsweek.com/robo-beer-worlds-first-beer-brewed-artificial-intelligence-480341?rm=eu

Disaggregated Tools

Mobility and Device Diversity

Virtual and Augmented Reality

elements and characteristics of this next generation of pedagogies and methods

1. It will be focused heavily on the individual learner

2. It will be distributed, technically, socially and organizationally

3. It will be crowd-driven and emergent

4. It will be integrated, just-in-time and authentic

5. Courses will play a less significant role

6. Learning will be divorced from accreditation

Social Media will become mainstream

Emerging Research on Social Media Use in Education: A Study of Dissertations.C Piotrowski - Research in Higher Education Journal, 2015

• findings of 29 dissertations that had a specific focus on SM-Education issues. Of these, only 2 studies reported any negative views by either students or faculty on the implementation of SMplatforms for academic purposes.

• Instructors’ lack of efficacy in Web 2.0 technology, privacy issues, and data overload were challenges

Threats to the FutureOpen versus Closed

http://progrium.com/blog/2012/12/15/avoiding-environmental-fallacy-with-systems-thinking/

The loss of mind, the loss of soul

“All technologies change us, especially those affecting something as fundamental as how we learn, and not all of those changes will be positive”.

Adoption in Formal Education

Learning as Dance (Anderson, 2008)

• Technology sets the beat and the timing.

• Pedagogy defines the moves.

E-Learning will Thrive – Will Open Universities?

• Increased competition from both well organized and “Lone Ranger” competitors

• Open Universities have a culture of striving to be “real universities”

• Need to overcome inertia and past success mentality• Most Western Open Universities have been losing

market share in the past decade• Need to focus research on teaching/learning within

the disciplines – not discipline based research!

Conclusion

• The future will be somewhat like the past – low adoption rates by instructional education

• Adjacent possibilities of new ideas and technologies always bring unanticipated and emergent opportunities and challenges

• However, the institutions may provide the stability necessary for human scale adaptation to technology induced hyper- change

How is the Future of E-Learning Emerging at UOC?

ContactsTerry Anderson, Ph.D., Professor EmeritusCentre for Distance EducationAthabasca University10005 93 StEdmonton, AB CanadaT5H 1W6 Ph 780 425 5950

Google Scholar profile: http://tinyurl.com/terrydanderson

Twitter - @terguyBlog - VirturalCanuck.ca