Future Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS)

Michel JeanPresident of CBS

Enabling Seamless Activities from Research toOperations to Service (R2O2S)for the benefits of Members

The GDPFS …

Cg-17 Side Event 2

• Is organized as a three-level system to carry out functions at global, regional and national levels

– World Meteorological Centre (WMC)– Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

(RSMC) (incl. Regional Climate Centre (RCC))– National Meteorological Centre (NMC)

Purpose of the GDPFS• The GDPFS provides the core operational

prediction capabilities and systems of WMO (operated by Members – 191)– Nowcasting (VSRF) – 0-6h– Numerical Weather Prediction & EPS – 6h-15d– Long-Range Forecasting – Sub-seasonal to Longer

Time Scales – up to 2 years– Emergency Response Activities for Nuclear and Non-

Nuclear dispersion– Specialised centres – eg sand and dust-storm, tropical

cyclone centres

The structure of Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System

GDPFS Operational System

GDPFS LayersGlobal Centers – High-Quality Information

Regional Centers – High-Quality & High-Res Information

National Centers – Very High-Res, Tailoring products

A Future Urban Layer

Verification Data & Im

pact Data

WIGOS

R&D

WIS

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The GDPFS today…

• Any advanced technological infrastructure needs a manual

• A WMO source of technical regulations for all operational data-processing and forecasting systems

• It includes the criteria for designation of operational centresand their operations

• Revised version endorsed at CBS-16. Additional new centre types designation (e.g. RSMC for non-nuclear ERA)

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The Manual on the GDPFS (WMO- No 485)

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New type of centres (examples)

ASDF with CAS

NTCP with CCl, CAS and WCRP

OWFV with JCOMM

Observations and Technologies supporting GDPFS

How GDPFS relatesto WIGOS and WIS

GDPFS

WIS

WIGOS

Driving innovation in the GDPFS

URBANIZATION HIGH IMPACT WEATHER WATER & AEROSOLSNEW TECHNOLOGIES & GHG Information

System

How GDPFS relates to Research

CAS Societal Challenges

Seamless prediction in the CAS context considers all compartments of the Earth system aswell as disciplines of the weather enterprise value chain (monitoring and observation,models, forecasting, dissemination and communication, perception and interpretation,decision- making, end-user products) to deliver tailor made weather information fromminutes to months and from global to local.

A Seamless Services Production Chain

Weather Climate Environmental Observational

Systems

Process description – Dynamics -Predictability

Data Assimilation –Prediction from

minutes to decades – Ensemble Prediction

Verification – Post-processing research

– Big Data

User Driven Research

Tailoring Observational

capabilities

Enhancement of Data Processing and Forecasting

Systems

Verification tools – Automatized forecasting & early warning

systems

Various products specifically tailored to

different user groups

Strengthening NMHS capabilities

A Seamless Services Production ChainFilling the gap between research (R&D) and operations requires a move from a current linear model of transferring research to operations to an interactive model. This interactive path to value innovation requires:

• A continuous joint consultation of research and operations with the user community.

Plug-in of WMO interface 2.0 to GDPFS

CSIS and how it relates to Seamless GDPFS

Global infrastructure

GPCLRFs

RCCs

• GPCLRF & RCC inventory of GFCS-relevant climate data and products (ECVs) 165+ pp.

• Not discoverable or organized in systematic form

Global infrastructure

GPCLRFs

RCCs

• C3S portal into past, present and future ECVs globally

• WIS to catalogue all• GDPFS for cascading

system

The Vision

GDPFS Vision

Vision: The GDPFS will be developed and expanded to cover seamlessly all timesacles from short to multi-annual range (Cg 17, Resolution 11)• Sustain and enhance quality and reliability of existing

operational services incl ERA• Dynamical monthly, seasonal and multi-annual

products understood and integrated in National and regional services and informing adaptation to clim var & change and informing decisons retaled to GFCS priority areas and DRR

• ERA for non-nuclear hazards to reach same level of maturity as nuclear ERA

Seamless PredictionEssential support to decision making on all timescales

Forecast lead-time

Now

Hou

rs

Day

s

1-w

eek

1-m

onth

Seas

onal

Dec

adal

Clim

ate

Past

clim

ate

Confidence boundary

Analysis of past weather observations to manage climate risksEg. Agriculture: informs crop choice, planting to yield optimisation and minimise crop failure risk.

Predicting routine and hazardous weather conditions. Public, emergency response, international Disaster Risk Reduction

Monthly to decadal predictions - probability of drought, cold, hurricanes….Contingency planners, national and international humanitarian response, government and private infrastructure investment

Global and regional climate predictions.Informs mitigation policy and adaptation choices. Impacts on water resources, heat stress, crops, infrastructure.

Future seamless

GDPFS

Seamless GDPFS

Rolling Review of

User Requir. and R&D Broaden

Cascading Process

(Timescale/ Applications)

Designation of new-type of Centres

Advances & science pull-through to operations

Common User Interface

Platform

Product Verification

The future GDPFS will… • Be an effective and adaptable monitoring and

prediction system enabling Members and partners to make better-informed decisions

• Facilitate the provision of impact-based forecastsand risk-based warnings through partnership and collaboration

• Do so through the sharing of weather, water, climate and related environmental data, products and services in a cost effective, timely and agile way, for the benefit of all WMO Members

• WMO foundational activity addressing the data-processingand forecasting needs of the weather, climate, water and environmental services of its Members

• A framework for integrating all WMO data-processing and forecasting systems under a common regulatory and management framework

• An incentive for continuous innovation and integration with other technological endeavours

In summary, the seamless GDPFS is…

Thank you

Questions for discussionIn a seamless GDPFS concept, encompassing weather, climate and water and related environment:1. What WMO commission or other structure(s) would be

appropriate for coordinating and integrating across the expanded scope of variables and timescales required of a seamless GDPFS?

2. Given the expanded number of types of centres and functions, how could/should the functions of these centres and their designations within the GDPFS be streamlined and harmonized?

3. What is the status of the user interface for defining and meeting end-use requirements and what are the key stakeholder forums for defining and meeting demand?