Fundamental Analysis - Dukascopy Bank SA · The public sector posted a 0.1% monthly ... * the data...
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07/11/2016 Fundamental Analysis
Transcript of Fundamental Analysis - Dukascopy Bank SA · The public sector posted a 0.1% monthly ... * the data...
07/11/2016
Fundamental Analysis
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Major events this week (November 7-11)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
07:00 am EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) November 0.2% 1.0%
12:30 pm GBP Halifax HPI (MoM) November 0.3% 0.1%
TUESDAY
Tentative CNY Trade Balance November 366B 278B
09:30 am GBP Manufacturing PMI (MoM) November 0.5% 0.2%
Tentative USD Presidential Election November
WEDNESDAY
09:30 am GBP Goods Trade Balance November -11.3B -12.1B
15:30 pm USD Crude Oil Inventories November 14.4M
20:00 pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
THURSDAY
13:30 pm USD Unemployment Claims November 267K 265K
FRIDAY
15:00 pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment November 87.4 87.2
15:50 pm CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks November
UK
The Bank of England left its key interest rates on hold but revised upwards its growth and inflation forecasts at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Policymakers voted anonymously to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25%, which was cut in August. Furthermore, the Central bank kept its corporate and government bond-purchase programs unchanged at 10 billion and 435 billion pounds, respectively. Meanwhile, the 2017 inflation forecast was revised up to 2.7% from 2.0% estimated in August, following the weak British Pound. However, inflation is expected to cool down by the end of 2019, falling to 2.5% and further. The 2016 GDP forecast was revised up to 2.2% from August's 2.0%, supported by the stronger than expected household spending, rebound in the housing market and improvements in both business and sentiment indicators despite the uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote. Moreover, the Bank of England revised up its GDP growth projections for 2017 to 1.4% from the previous estimate of 0.8%. The Bank noted that output growth is expected to be stronger in the near-term but weaker than previously estimated. Therefore, the 2018 GDP forecast was revised down to 1.5% from August's estimate pf 1.8%.
US
US manufacturing activity grew for the second consecutive month in October, official data showed on Tuesday. The Institute for Supply Management said its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index jumped to 51.9 points in October, following the preceding month's reading of 51.5 and surpassing the 51.8 market forecast. The October growth was mainly driven by a rise in production and hiring. Any reading above the 50 point level 50 indicates an expansion in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for about 12% of the US economy. Meanwhile, the Production Index rose 1.8% to 54.6 points, while the New Orders Index dropped to 52.1 from the previous month's 55.1 and the Employment Index increased 3.2% to 52.9 during the reported period. The Export Orders Index rose slightly to 52.5 from the prior month's figure of 52. Analysts widely expect manufacturing activity to pick up in the Q4. The US manufacturing sector was hit by the strong US Dollar between June 2014 and December 2015, as the appreciation of the Greenback hampered US exports. The Federal Reserve began a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and it is unlikely to raise interest rates at this meeting ahead of the presidential election on November 8. However, analysts widely anticipate a December rate hike.
Canada
The Canadian economy expanded for the third consecutive month in August, official figures showed on Tuesday. According to Statistics Canada, the economy grew 0.2% to $1.25 trillion month-over-month in August, following July's downwardly revised 0.4% growth. However, the August reading matched market expectations. On an annual basis, Canada's GDP increased 1.3%, also in line with projections. The 0.2% expansion was mainly driven by the mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction, utilities, manufacturing and construction sectors. Manufacturing output advanced 0.3% and 0.4% on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively, whereas construction rose 0.5% month-over-month but fell 3.4% year-over-year. The country's service sector output remained unchanged on a monthly basis, growing 2.2% in annual terms. The public sector posted a 0.1% monthly increase and jumped 2.3% compared with the same month of the previous year. Oil and gas extraction advanced 0.9%.
Key highlights of the week ended November 4
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
USD
“The wage growth is something they've been looking forward to for a long time. The move from a 2.6 percent growth rate in September is progress. That doesn't scream inflationary pressure, but it's going the right way”. - Dan North, Euler Hermes North America
Monday, November 07, 2016 07:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Trends* Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
MAX 1.43 1.19 1.20
75% percentile 1.11 1.12 1.13
Median 1.09 1.09 1.09
25% percentile 1.07 1.07 1.06
MIN 0.97 0.96 0.95 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
US non-farm payrolls miss forecasts last month; Trade balance improves High
US private companies added fewer than expected jobs last month, whereas the unemployment rate improved slightly, the October Non-Farm Payrolls report showed on Friday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy created 161,000 new jobs in the reported period, while market analysts expected non-farm payrolls to increase by 174,000. Meanwhile, the September gain was revised up to 191,000 from the originally reported 156,000. However, the odds of a December rate remained quite high, despite today's disappointing jobs report. Furthermore, average hourly earnings advanced 2.8% and 0.4% on annual and monthly basis, respectively, while average weekly remained unchanged at 34.4 last month. The unemployment rate declined unexpectedly to 4.9% in October, following the preceding month’s 5.0%. After the release, the US Dollar declined slightly against other major currencies, trading at 1.1111 against the Euro and 103.10 against the Japanese Yen. Separately, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday that the US trade deficit narrowed to $36.44 billion in the same month from September’s gap of $40.46 billion, which was revised up from the originally reported $40.70 billion deficit. Economists expected the US trade gap to decrease to $37.80 billion during October.
04.11 open price 04.11 close price % change
AUD/USD 0.76783 0.76731 -0.07%
USD/CHF 0.97354 0.96801 -0.57%
USD/JPY 102.971 103.076 +0.10%
NZD/USD 0.73246 0.7327 +0.03%
CAD
“Overall, the employment data should trump the trade picture, particularly due to the one-off nature of the widening in the deficite”. - Avery Shenfeld, CIBC Economics
Monday, November 07, 2016 07:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Trends* Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17
MAX 1.40 1.40 1.45
75% percentile 1.34 1.33 1.35
Median 1.31 1.31 1.30
25% percentile 1.28 1.28 1.27
MIN 0.84 1.20 1.17 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
Impact
Canadian labor markets strengthen in October High
The Canadian economy more jobs than expected last month, official figures revealed on Friday. The growth was mainly driven by an increase in part-time positions, which offset a fall in full-time workers. According to Statistics Canada, employment rose by 43,900 jobs in October, following the preceding month’s gain of 67,200, while market analysts anticipated the economy to lose 10,000 jobs in the reported period. The data also showed the unemployment rate held steady at 7.0% last month, in line with analysts’ expectations. Part-time jobs increased by 67,000 in October, whereas the more-desirable full-time employment declined by 23,000. On annual basis, the economy added 140,000 new positions last month, gaining 16,000 full-time workers and 124,000 part-time workers. The services-producing sector added around 23,000 new jobs, while the goods-producing sector created 21,000. In regional terms, Ontario gained 25,000 new positions in October, whereas British Columbia created 15,000. In the meantime, the number of jobs dropped in Labrador and Newfoundland by 5,600 in the same month. Separately, Canadian imports rose 4.7% to $47.6 billion in October, touching the highest level, while exports jumped 0.1% to $43.5 billion.
04.11 open price 04.11 close price % change
AUD/CAD 1.02885 1.02825 -1.06%
CAD/CHF 0.7268 0.72225 -0.63%
EUR/CAD 1.48707 1.49253 +0.37%
USD/CAD 1.33922 1.33993 +0.05%
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Major events previous week (October 31-November 4)
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
10:00 am EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Quarter 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
12:30 pm USD Personal Spending (MoM) September 0.5% 0.4% -0.1%
TUESDAY
8:00 am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI October 51.2 50.2 50.1
02:55 am JPY BOJ Interest Rate Decision October -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
09:30 am GBP Manufacturing PMI October 54.3 54.6 55.4
12:30 pm CAD Gross Domestic Product October 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
14:00 pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI October 51.9 51.8 51.5
21:45 pm NZD GDT Price Index October 11.4% 1.4%
WEDNESDAY
09:30 am GBP Construction PMI October 52.6 51.9 52.3
14:30 pm USD Crude Oil Inventories October 14.4M 0.6M
THURSDAY
12:00 pm GBP Official Bank Rate October 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
12:30 pm USD Unemployment Claims October 265K 257K 258K
FRIDAY
10:00 am EUR Producer Price Index (MoM) September 0.1% 0.0% -0.2%
12:30 pm USD Unemployment Rate October 4.9% 4.9% 5%
12:30 pm CAD Employment Change October 43.9K 67.2K
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Forecasts
EXPLANATIONS
Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts
Second Quartile – the median price based on the projections of the industry
First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts
Disclaimer Everything in this article, including opinions and figures, is provided for informational purposes only and may not be interpreted as financial advice or solicitation of products. Dukascopy group assume no responsibility for the completeness or the accuracy of any data contained in this article. Financial figures indicated in this article have not been verified by the Dukascopy group. Views, opinions and analyses are those of the author of the article, and are not endorsed by the Dukascopy group. Dukascopy group waive any and all warranties, express or implied, regarding, but without limitation to, warranties of the merchantability or the fitness for a particular purpose, with respect to all information in this article. Dukascopy group shall under no circumstances be responsible for any direct, indirect, consequential, contingent or any other damages sustained in connection with the use of this article.
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Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
