Functional Value of Biodiversity Project

OverviewSeptember 2002

The Bank - Netherlands Partnership Program

Outline

• Goals• Results to date• Phase II plans• Current and expected impacts

Motivation

• Can biodiversity conservation ‘pay for itself’ by providing functional values? – such as flood prevention, climate mitigation, forest products, etc.

• If so, can poor people benefit:– As providers of these functional values?– As beneficiaries?

• Hydrological services appear to be potentially among the most ‘saleable’ -- but most poorly understood -- forest values.

Assertions

• Upland-dwelling poor people are the agents of deforestation that results in upland biodiversity loss and downslope flooding, sedimentation, drought, landslides.

• If downslope populations pay upland dwellers to alter behavior, the result can be higher economic output, poverty reduction, and biodiversity conservation.

• Is this assertion valid? Where? To what extent?

General Objective

Provide a sound basis for identifying and designing policies and projects that use forest conservation as a tool for maintaining the level, quality, and regularity of water flows.

“Conventional wisdom” can result in both missed opportunities and inappropriate policies

Goals for mainstreaming: influence…

• …Bankwide priority-setting, agenda-setting:

Where are forest conservation/hydrology connections important?

• …CAS, PRSP for selected countries: What kinds of connections are important? For what subregions? Is there a poverty link?

• …Environmental services project design

At what scale does land use change affect hydrological functions?

Watershed < 200km2 Spatial arrangement of trees and crops locally affects:• Erosion• Sedimentation• Flooding• Landslides• Habitat connectivity

Basins > 5,000km2

• Deforestation• Habitat loss• Increased water yield

controversial• Lowland flooding• Sedimentation

Southern Guatemala0 20 40 km

Vertical Exaggeration x5

AgricultureForestWaterUrbanShrubBare rock

Guatemala City

Predicting local impacts of land use change based on

topography

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tan(Slope)

log (

Topogra

phic

index)

Saturation Overland

Flow, no Erosion

Erosion

No Surface Runoff

LandslideRisk

Global significance of forest-hydrology-biodiversity

interface• Where is the interface* between

agriculture and forested slopes? – the place where deforestation might affect water flows.

• Who lives there, worldwide? 20 million people? 100 million? 200 million?

• Where is the interface crucial to biodiversity?

* Restrictive definition

165 million in developing countries at the forested-slope interface*

165 million in developing countries at the forested-slope interface*

* Restrictive definition

Buffer zones falling within areas of High Biological Distinctiveness (km2)

- 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Tanzania

Guatemala

Zaire

Ethiopia

Ecuador

Madagascar

Honduras

Nepal

Bolivia

Venezuela

Thailand

Papua New Guinea

Morocco

Algeria

Brazil

Myanmar

Malaysia

Philippines

India

Peru

Colombia

Mexico

Indonesia

Area of high BDI

Non-BDI

Interface zones:Overwhelmingly In areas of high Biological Distinctiveness(based on WWFGlobal 200)

Note: data missing for China

Extent of basins includingtropical forests

Source: Hydro1k – USGS EDC 2001; Terrain type: A. Nelson – World Bank (2001).Note: The shading differentiates between the upper and lower catchments of the basins.

Dividing line between humid and subhumid tropicsFocus area

ASB site locations

Regional studies

Central America:combine data on forests and slopes…

..with info on population…

…poverty…

...and watersheds

Guatemala: critical watershedswhere the ‘interface’ > 20% of area

Guatemala: poor people/km2by watershed

Guatemala: poverty rateby watershed

Guatemala: poverty ratewith critical watersheds highlighted

Lambert Equal Area ProjectionCentered at 85 W and 13 N

Nicaragua: few ‘critical’ watersheds (at this scale and definition)

Lambert Equal Area ProjectionCentered at 85 W and 13 N

Panama: few ‘critical’ watersheds (at this scale and definition)

Laos: High-poverty provinces have the most

rugged terrain.

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Poverty rank (1= poorest)Hill

iness

rank

(1=

hig

hest

pro

port

ion)

Impacts to date: inputs to

• WDR 2003• Millennium Ecosystem assessment• RUPES – IFAD-funded project on

environment services payments for upland poor of Asia

• World Bank Poverty-environment study for SE Asia and Laos PRSP process

Expected impacts by project end

• Inputs into PRSP’s and CAS’s • Inputs into forest policy

implementation• Inputs into design of possible

environmental services projects• Analytic tools and policy conclusions:

resources for future policy and project design

Phase II plans

• Detailed hydrological modeling at three scales:– Global– Regional (Central America, SE Asia)– Watershed (Thailand, Indonesia; possible Central

America)

• Providing info on hydrological ‘hotspots’ and affected areas and populations

• Link to micro-level understanding of land use options