From the Institute Director - Future Directions...
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4 November 2015 | Vol. 6, № 41.
From the Institute Director
Articles Published 29 October - 3 November:
Strategic Analysis Paper
The Indus Treaty Revisited – India-Pakistan Water Sharing
The treaty between India and Pakistan needs to be revised so as to consider
increased populations, climatic and environmental pressures. Such revisions are
unlikely to occur in the near future, though, as India-Pakistan relations are too
fragile for meaningful water governance reform to take place.
FDI Feature Interview
Soil Carbon and the Role of Fungi in the Long-term Sequestering of Carbon in Soil:
Associate Professor Peter McGee
In this interview Dr Peter McGee of the School of Biological Sciences, University of
Sydney, firstly describes the significance and importance of soil organic carbon to
soil fertility and secondly, in brief outline, describes exciting recent research that
may lead to an understanding of the role certain fungi play in facilitating the long-
term adding of carbon in soil.
Strategic Weekly Analysis
Jokowi’s Washington Visit: Long Term Aspirations for a US-Indonesia Partnership?
The Sino-Indian Competition Continues - In Africa
Potential “Super” El Niño Presents a Threat to Global Food and Water Security
Students’ Fee Protests Shake South Africa
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Articles to be Published 3 - 11 November:
Strategic Analysis Paper: National Characteristics of South Africa
Strategic Analysis Paper: India’s Maritime Strategy in the Indian Ocean
Strategic Weekly Analysis:
o Indonesia Looks to Join Trans-Pacific Partnership
o Mayotte Continues Illegal Immigration Battle
o Endgame in Syria or the Beginning of a Regional Re-Ordering?
o Floods in Middle East Unlikely to Alleviate Water Stress
Activities
FDI attended the public lecture delivered by Professor Naoyuki Agawa of Keio University
titled “Japan's Security Policies: Co-operation with Australia, US, and India”, which was
hosted by the Perth USAsia Centre on 4 November 2015.
FDI will attend the lecture by Dr Romit Dasgupta titled ‘Bringing Turkey (Back) into “Asia”’,
which is hosted by The Centre for Muslim States and Societies at the University of Western
Australia on 12 November 2015.
I trust that you will enjoy this edition of the Strategic Weekly Analysis.
Major General John Hartley AO (Retd) Institute Director and CEO Future Directions International
*****
Indonesia Looks to Join the Trans-Pacific Partnership
The benefits to Indonesia of joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership remain unclear although
it may help to push through much-needed economic reforms.
Background
During his recent visit to Washington, Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo
announced that his country will join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade deal.
Following his meeting with US President Barack Obama, Jokowi told reporters, “‘Indonesia is
an open economy, and with a population of 250 million, we are the largest economy in
Southeast Asia… Indonesia intends to join the TPP.’” Jokowi arrived in Washington on 25
October and held a private meeting with Obama the following day, before cutting his trip
short to focus on the on-going haze crisis in Indonesia.
Comment
Jokowi’s decision to enter into the TPP agreement continues his agenda of economic recent
reforms. Jokowi introduced a number of protectionist economic policies in the early stages
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of his presidency but has since backtracked. This appears to be the result of divisions within
the Indonesian government on whether the Jakarta should take a protectionist or liberal
approach towards addressing its slowing economy. Following Jokowi’s statement in
Washington, a number of officials expressed their concerns in relation to the TPP. Speaking
to the Jakarta Post, Hikmahanto Juwana, a professor of international law at the University of
Indonesia, argued that Jokowi’s statement contradicted traditional views held by state
officials, adding that, “‘We were not given any direction or voice in the TPP drafting process
so that if we join the group, we will have acquiesced to set conditions and points that have
already been decided and declared final.’” Riza Noer Arfani, a researcher at the Centre for
World Trade Studies at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, also noted that the
agreement would be difficult to sell in its current form to even the more liberal economists
within the Indonesian government.
Fully implementing the TPP within Indonesia will be a difficult task and will require
significant reforms. Jokowi has acknowledged this, noting that while one of the first steps is
to free up the private sector this will likely take time, adding that, “‘Economic reform is a
process. We may not get it completely correct right away. But we shall continue performing
and improving until we get it right.’” Key reforms that may take place under the TPP include
the restructure of inefficient state-owned enterprises, the reduction of restrictions on
foreign ownership and the improvement of investment protections for foreign investors.
This will require a major policy shift away from a traditionally inward-looking economic
policy towards one of interdependency as enshrined by the TPP. It will also be a major
reversal of Jokowi’s tariff increase on thousands of import items in July. A policy shift of this
magnitude will not only be difficult to implement, but also difficult to get passed in
Indonesia’s fractured parliament.
There is also debate surrounding whether becoming a signatory to the TPP will actually
benefit Indonesia’s economy. Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, Joshua Pardede, an
economist at Indonesia’s Bank Permata cautioned that Indonesia doesn’t produce enough
value-added exports to benefit from increased trade. Instead, its economy is still dominated
by raw commodity exports which typically do not face tariffs in overseas markets. On the
other hand, expanding economic ties through the TPP could open avenues for sourcing
much needed foreign direct investment in the country.
There are, however, other factors at play. As a recent Strategic Weekly Analysis noted,
China’s increasing presence in the Southeast Asian region is playing a role in increasing US
interest in Indonesia. As the region’s largest economy, Indonesia has considerable regional
leverage that could help Washington counter China’s influence there. The TPP, by excluding
China, could balance Beijing’s economic weight and influence in the region. In an interview
with the Wall Street Journal, Obama acknowledged, “‘If we don't write the rules, China will
write the rules out in that region,’” adding that “‘We will be shut out.’” This, however, will
do little to convince the Indonesian parliament to go ahead with the deal. While remaining
cautious, Indonesia is still less concerned than its ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian
Nations) neighbours over China’s increasing presence in the region.
While many hold optimistic opinions about Jokowi’s decision to join the TPP, it remains to be
seen whether the Indonesian parliament will commit to the many reforms that are needed
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and whether Jakarta will actually benefit from the TPP. Indonesian interests do not
necessarily align with those of the US in countering Chinese influence. It could, however,
open avenues to much needed foreign investment in the country.
Jarryd de Haan Research Analyst Indian Ocean Research Programme
*****
Mayotte Continues Illegal Immigration Battle
As the disparity between Mayotte and the Comoros widens, the flow of migrants will
continue.
Background
Mayotte MP Ibrahim Aboubacar has called upon Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve during
debate in the French Parliament for assistance in tackling the problem of clandestine
immigration that continues to confront France’s 101st départment. Resources such as the 16
additional gendarmes, who were deployed to Mayotte following the visit to the island of
Prime Minister Manuel Valls in June 2015, are already proving insufficient as illegal
immigration from the Comoros continues unabated.
Comment
Anjouan is the closest Comorian island to Mayotte and the two are separated by a distance
of only 70 kilometres. The numbers of immigrants undertaking the short but often fatal
voyage in small boats from Anjouan to Mayotte has continued to swell, putting the island
départment under considerable pressure. The immigrants make the journey in small fishing
vessels known as kwassa-kwassa, which, while sturdy enough, are often overloaded by the
people-smugglers operating them and are thus prone to capsizing in rough seas.
Unfortunately, that happens fairly regularly, most recently on the night of 30 November. In
that incident, a kwassa-kwassa reportedly carrying some 30 people to Mayotte capsized
while still in Comorian waters, killing at least eight people, including a young woman and a
child.1
According to the most recent figures (2013) from the French National Institute for Statistics
and Economic Studies (INSEE), Mayotte is home to some 214,000 official residents. INSEE
figures show that, in 2012, a total of 84,600 foreigners lived in Mayotte, 95 per cent of who
were Comorian.
1 ‘Anjouan endeuillée par un nouveau naufrage de kwassa’ [‘Anjouan bereaved by a new kwassa
shipwreck’], Le Journal de Mayotte, 1 November 2015. <http://lejournaldemayotte.com/fil-info/anjouan-endeuillee-par-un-nouveau-naufrage-de-kwassa/>.
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Many of those making the journey to Mayotte are attempting to join family members
already living there clandestinely. Those already domiciled on Mayotte include adolescents
living on their own and attempting to find work or education while avoiding detection by the
police and gendarmerie. Upon reaching the age of 18, they then have the right to become
French citizens under the principle of jus soli by virtue of being born on French soil.
One particularly vexing issue for Comorians wanting to visit Mayotte is the need to obtain a
visa in advance. Introduced in 1993 by the government of Prime Minister Édouard Balladur –
the so-called “Balladur visa” costs up to 100 euros and proponents of its removal argue that
it has done little to stop the flow of illegal immigrants. At the same time, however, it is hard
to see how simply removing the Balladur visa would change the situation on Mayotte. If
anything, it may actually encourage further immigration while doing little to create addition
employment in a départment that has an unemployment rate of 19.5% in 2013 (the most
recent figures available).
Cazeneuve, who is reportedly very concerned about the situation on Mayotte, announced
on 30 October in response to Aboubacar’s questioning that a mission including personnel
from the Inspectorates-General of Home Affairs, the National Gendarmerie and the National
Police would be dispatched to Mayotte. The issue may also command the attention of
Overseas Territories Minister George Pau-Langevin, when she calls at Mayotte during a two-
day Indian Ocean visit scheduled for 9-11 November.
The large numbers of illegal immigrants is placing a strain on Mayotte. Although the island
has high unemployment, it also has vastly better medical care, educational facilities and
earnings for those who can find work than does Comoros. Given the disparities between
Mayotte and the independent Comoros, there is not likely to be an end any time soon to the
problem of illegal immigration. If a workable solution is to be found, the local and
metropolitan authorities may need to canvas a wider range of options than has previously
been the case.
Leighton G. Luke Research Manager Indian Ocean Research Programme
*****
Endgame in Syria or the Beginning of a Regional Re-Ordering?
The use of US Special Forces to assist Syrian rebel groups in combatting Islamic State
fighters could herald the break-up of Syria, leading to longer-term problems in the region
and elsewhere.
Background
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US President Barack Obama has announced that an initial batch of ‘fewer than fifty’ Special
Forces troops will be deployed to Northern Syria to ‘help co-ordinate local ground forces and
coalition efforts to counter [Islamic State],’ according to White House Spokesman, Josh
Earnest. The troops will work alongside Kurdish rebel groups who, like Islamic State, control
large areas of northern Syria. It is, however, the overall demands of the Kurds that will pose
the biggest problem to the region, including a state of their own, Kurdistan. This state, if
formed, will comprise territories that currently belong to Turkey, which is a NATO member,
Syria, Iraq and, hardly least of all, Iran. Any collaboration between the US and Kurdish rebels,
therefore, will have regional ramifications.
Comment
It is hardly likely that Russia, Iran, Syria or any other actor in the current events in Syria will
take at face value the US’s comments that its troops will not have a combat role in Syria. If
the US wanted personnel there to train the Kurdish groups in their fight against Islamic
State, why not send the usual military trainers? What is the need for Special Forces troops?
Furthermore, as Russia will recall, the US initially sent “trainers” to Vietnam before
escalating that action to full-blown military operations there. Turkey, which faces a Kurdish
insurrection, is hardly likely to cede territory that includes larger centres such as Mardin,
Batman, Siirt, Van and Igdir. Iraq, in its currently weak condition, will probably have no
choice but to cede territory while protesting its loss.
Washington may claim that it has no
wish to see the territorial contours of
the region change. It may also claim
that its two major goals there are to
see the removal of al Assad from
power in Syria and the defeat of
Islamic State. Notwithstanding this, it
must surely recognise that if al Assad
were to be removed, regional
boundaries will change. History
indicates that even if al Assad
retained control over a stub of Syria,
the diminution of his control over
Syria would cause a power vacuum
like those seen in Iraq and Libya. This
could lead to more strife, this time
around based on sectarian and tribal affiliations, which could cause further emigration.
By training Kurdish fighters, moreover, Washington will be perceived as tacitly working with
them towards the creation of Kurdistan. This cannot but cause much anger in Turkey, which
probably has the most territory to lose to Kurdistan. Neither President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
nor Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu is likely to cede any territory, leave alone the vast
swathe the creation of Kurdistan demands. Their antipathy towards the Kurdish rebels, who
they perceive as a threat to Turkish sovereignty and their rule, although not necessarily in
that order, is epitomised by the air strikes they launched against the Kurds in the immediate
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aftermath of their victory in the Turkish general election that was held a few days ago. The
airstrikes can only signal a return to a hard-line stance against the Kurds and indicate that
the two leaders will now commence an all-but-declared war against various Kurdish groups.
From the other side, it is more than likely that, having defeated Islamic State with the help of
the US in the future, Kurdish fighters will work with increased confidence towards the
creation of Kurdistan. This will inevitably lead to increased fighting and bloodshed between
those groups, even if they have not coalesced by that time, and Turkish troops. Erdoğan,
who is no admirer of the US at the best of times, is hardly likely to wish to go down in history
as the president who oversaw the loss of Turkish territory because of Washington’s attempts
to remain relevant in the region by brokering a peace deal. The US could attempt to mollify
Turkish sentiment by pressuring the European Union to accept Turkey as a member state
but this will only cause Erdoğan to weigh membership in the European Union against the
loss of sovereign territory. Given the growing antipathy of ordinary Europeans to the so-
called Islamisation of Europe (see here, here, here and here, for example) and the backlash
that established European parties face in the face of the current refugee crisis (see here,
here and here, among others), any decision European leaders make towards bring Turkey
into the Union would have disastrous consequences for their political parties and
themselves and could, potentially, lead to a loosening of the ties that bind the Union, if not
worse.
Despite the gravity of the foregoing, Iran is, without doubt, the regional state with the most
to lose. Apart from potentially losing territory, albeit to a slightly lesser extent than Turkey,
Tehran could see its plans for regional influence thrown into disarray by the collaboration of
the US with Kurdish groups. While these groups are currently battling Islamic State, they
have no particular liking for the Assad regime, either. It is only a matter of time, in Tehran’s
view, before they turn their attention to toppling him in Damascus. Syria, which has a
majority Sunni population, figures large in Iran’s plans for regional primacy in its competition
against Saudi-led Sunni Islam. It is important for Tehran, therefore, that the Alawite (Shi’a) al
Assad remains in power.
Assad and territory aside, Tehran will fear an alliance between the nominally-Sunni but far
more secular Kurds and the Arab fighters who are arrayed against Islamic State. The Kurdish
Yekîneyên Parastina Gel (YPG or People’s Protection Units) has formed an alliance with
Syrian Arab Groups (“The Syrian Arab Coalition”) to form the Democratic Forces of Syria.
Neither the Syrian Arab Coalition nor the Democratic Forces of Syria are Shi’a or wish to see
an Iran-dominated Syria, making it very likely that they could work towards first defeating
the Islamic State fighters and then working together to overthrow al Assad. They will have
Washington’s support in both endeavours. In fact, Washington has reportedly agreed to
provide this alliance with weapons and training. Tehran undoubtedly fears that any Sunni
government will more likely work with Riyadh than it will with Iran even if it is chary of
becoming a Saudi pawn in that country’s competition with Iran, leading to a further loss of
regional influence. The alleged recent comment by a Saudi prince that, in case of conflict
between Israel and Palestine, he would support Israel and reports that Saudi Arabia has
vowed to match Iran in developing its nuclear capacity will make Iran even more determined
to ensure that it does not lose its influence in Syria or elsewhere in the region. It will likely
use every instrument at its disposal, including its Revolutionary Guards Corp and Hezbollah
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fighters to keep al Assad secure in Damascus and to destroy Islamic State before any other
actor does. This will enable it to reassert its claim to regional primacy and not be seen by
Washington or its own people as having been weakened, thus possibly jeopardising the rule
of the Mullahs. It will probably try to further boost its relationships with Moscow and Beijing
and align itself with them in the global competition for influence.
Washington may have believed it had a moral imperative and a limited goal when it decided
to send its Special Forces to Syria, but by working with the Kurds it has created a longer-term
problem that could have far-reaching repercussions not least of which are a further
diminution of its regional influence and an enhanced regional antipathy towards it.
Lindsay Hughes Research Analyst Indian Ocean Research Programme
*****
Floods in Middle East Unlikely to Alleviate Water Stress
The arid region has experienced unusually high levels of rainfall in recent days leading to
flooding and potential threats to human health with potentially dire political
consequences.
Background
Flooding occurred in the Iraqi capital
Baghdad after several days of heavy
rainfall. An outbreak of cholera could
grow worse as a result. Days later, a
rare cyclone, the second strongest
on record in the Arabian Sea, also
brought the equivalent of several
years of annual rain to parts of
Yemen, causing considerable
flooding in the usually arid country.
These events could have significant
political ramifications for both
countries.
Comment
The Middle East, a usually arid region, is ill prepared for rare periods of above average
rainfall. After experiencing exceptionally hot conditions over summer, Iraq was subjected to
abnormally high levels of rainfall. In a period of 24 hours, Baghdad was inundated with
24mm of rain. The city’s decrepit drainage system was not able to deal with such a large
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volume of water, leaving many residents without a clean water supply as pollutants washed
into nearby water sources. Sewage systems have also been unable to cope, leaving large
parts of the city at risk of disease.
Health concerns are now a potential concern for the Iraqi Government. An outbreak of
cholera, which is spread by waterborne bacteria, has affected parts of North Africa and the
Middle East. As of late October, conservative estimates suggested that almost 11,000 people
in the region had contracted the disease, with 2,000 cases reported in Iraq. The inundation
of the city with rain and
sewage means it is at
greater risk of the disease
spreading.
The World Health
Organisation launched a
mass vaccination campaign
in the country on 31
October 2015. It is
suspected that the
Euphrates River and
possibly the Tigris River are
contaminated with the
Vibrio cholerae bacterium
that causes cholera. As Islamic State (IS) has maintained control over some of the dams on
these waterways flow has been reduced, contributing to the incubation of the bacteria. The
best way to ensure the eradication of the disease in Iraq is to open the upstream dams of
the two rivers to flush the bacteria out of the waterway. This, however, will involve retaking
the dams from IS.
In the Arabian Peninsula, parts of Yemen have also received rains far above the annual
average in a matter of hours due to an uncommonly powerful cyclone. While it is not
uncommon for cyclones to form in the Arabian Sea, mainly due to its relatively small size and
dry air coming from the peninsula, large, destructive storms are rare. Record high water
temperatures in the region have contributed to the formation of one of the largest cyclones
ever recorded in Arabia. According to NASA, only two tropical cyclones have made landfall
on the Arabian Peninsula since reliable records began in 1979. Other sources suggest that
Yemen experienced similar cyclones in 1959 and 1960.
The storm made landfall near the port of al Mukalla, a city that is under the control of al-
Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, with expectations it would bring up to 200mm of rain to the
area – over four times the average annual rainfall of 45mm. As it travels inland, the storm
will experience much drier air and mountainous terrain, which will cause it to rapidly
dissipate. The mountains close to the coast are likely to cause the storm to rapidly dump a
large volume of rain in coastal regions and less in the country’s desert interior and more
densely populated regions.
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Due to a lack of rainwater-harvesting infrastructure, the rain will do little for either country’s
water crisis. In Yemen rain is unlikely to reach Sana’a which is likely to become the first
capital city to exhaust its water supply. Even if significant rain fell in the city it would be
unlikely to fill the aquifers upon which it relies. The dry terrain also does not absorb water
well, leading water to either pool or run off.
The governments of both states will find it challenging to deal with these natural disasters as
they grapple with internal political crises. Other non-state actors, such as IS or al-Qaeda,
could capitalise upon the limited capacity of the government to provide relief for those
affected by floods to build social and political capital within the regions most affected by the
natural disasters. In the worst case scenario, such an outcome will further weaken the
legitimacy of state institutions and bolster support for militant organisations.
Mervyn Piesse
Research Manager
Global Food and Water Crises Research Programme
*****
What’s Next?
After two days in China, French President François Hollande and Foreign
Minister Laurent Fabius will spend 4 November in Seoul.
The third ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus continues in Kuala Lumpur
until 5 November.
On 5 November, Admiral Harry B. Harris, commander of the US Pacific Fleet,
finishes a four-day visit to China to discuss China’s artificial islands in the South
China Sea with Chinese military officials.
After two days in the UK, Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev continues
his European trip with a reception in his honour at the Élysée Palace in Paris on
5 November.
Tanzanian President-elect John Magufuli will be sworn in on 5 November.
Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe will present the budget and the
government’s five-year plan to Parliament on 5 November.
Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is visiting the Netherlands until 6
November.
Burma will hold general elections on 8 November.
The Summit of South American-Arab Countries will be hosted by Saudi Arabia in
Riyadh from 8-10 November.
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Any opinions or views expressed in this paper are those of the individual authors, unless stated to be those of Future Directions International. Published by Future Directions International Pty Ltd. 80 Birdwood Parade, Dalkeith, WA 6009 Tel: +61 8 9389 9831 Fax: +61 8 9389 8803 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.futuredirections.org.au