1/1

IFC Workshop on the use of financial accounts, co-organised with the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

18-20 March 2019, Istanbul, Turkey

From financial accounts towards integrated accounts: the case of Turkey1

Aycan Ozek,

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

1 This presentation was prepared for the meeting. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS, the IFC or the central banks

and other institutions represented at the meeting.

From Financial Accounts TowardsIntegrated Accounts: Case of Turkey

Marck 18-20, 2019 Workshop on the Use of Financial Accounts, Istanbul

Aycan Ozek

Statistics DepartmentMonetary and Financial Data Division

WAY FORWARD

OUTLINE

MOTIVATION AND BACKGROUND

WAY FORWARDCONSISTENCY ISSUES BY SECTOR

2

MOTIVATION AND BACKGROUND

WAY FORWARDCONSISTENCY ISSUES BY SECTOR

3

International Initiatives

4

G 20 DATA GAPS INITIATIVE

Recommendation II.8. Sectoral Accounts

Target: Disseminate non-financial, financial accounts and balance sheet data8/1

- Dissemination of non-financial accounts transactions (Annual data)

- Dissemination of non-financial accounts transactions (Quarterly data)

- Dissemination of stocks of non-financial assets (Annual data)

- Dissemination of financial accounts and balance sheets (Annual data)

- Dissemination of financial accounts and balance sheets (Quarterly data)

Consistency Concern

Net Lending / Borrowing

5

B9_NON FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS

B9F_FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS

PRODUCTION ACCOUNTS

GENERATION OF INCOME AND CONSUMPTION

CAPITAL ACCOUNTS

FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS

Timeline

6

December

2016

InstitutionalSector Accounts by Turkstat

February

2017

Integrated Accounts Working Group

June

2018

1st Workshop

January

2019

2nd Workshop

Integrated Accounts Working Group

7

Financial Corporations

General Government

Rest of the World

Nonfinancial Corporations

Housheholds & NPISH

• Data Sources

• Sector Coverage

• Methodology

MOTIVATION AND BACKGROUND

WAY FORWARDCONSISTENCY ISSUES BY SECTOR

8

Financial Corporations

9

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

-I

20

15

-II

20

15

-III

20

15

-IV

20

16

-I

20

16

-II

20

16

-III

20

16

-IV

20

17

-I

20

17

-II

20

17

-III

20

17

-IV

20

18

-I

20

18

-II

20

18

-III

Monetary financial institutions other than Central Bank Central Bank Other financial intermediaries

Financial auxiliaries Insurance corporations and pension funds Financial Corporations

Financial Corporations, Net Worth (% GDP)

Source: CBRT Financial Accounts

Financial Corporations

10

DIFFERENTDATA SOURCES

WORK AT SUBSECTOR

LEVEL

IMPROVEMENTIN DATA

COVERAGE

INSURANCESECTOR TASK

FORCE

PILOT STUDYAND

CONSULTANCE

NFA sub sectorbreakdown is not sufficient

• Investment funds• Financial auxiliaries

• Eliminate discrepancies in FA and NFA• Data warehouse for all financial reports (IIMC)• Counterpart data of ITC

Financial Corporations

11

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Financial Corporations-B9f Financial Corporations-B9

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Net Lending/Borrowing (thousand TRY) Coherence Indicator (% GDP)*

* Coherence indicator= (B9F-B9)/GDP

Source: CBRT Financial Accounts

General Government

12

-%30

-%25

-%20

-%15

-%10

-%5

%0

%5

%10

%15

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

-I

20

15

-II

20

15

-III

20

15

-IV

20

16

-I

20

16

-II

20

16

-III

20

16

-IV

20

17

-I

20

17

-II

20

17

-III

20

17

-IV

20

18

-I

20

18

-II

20

18

-III

Central Government Local Government Social Security Institutions General Government

General Government, Net Worth (% GDP)

Source: CBRT Financial Accounts

General Government

13

SAME DATA SOURCE

GFS REVISIONS DATA SHARING

REVIEWBRIDGE

TABLES FORGFS & EDP

Common Revision Policy

Online Platform for GFS Data

REVISE GGDEFINITION

General Government _After Revision

14

• General government data is revised beginning the 1st Quarter of 2015

• The biggest effect is on central government sector for 2015 and 2016 data periods

• The biggest change is observed in other accounts payable/receivable in all sectors

• Maturity breakdowns are updated for loans and debt securities

• PPPs are the only difference between FA andGFS since 2016 Q4

General Government, (TRY billion)

-600

-550

-500

-450

-400

-350

-300

-250

-200

General Government Net Worth(old) General Government Net Worth(new)

GFS Net Worth

Source: CBRT Financial Accounts, Ministry of Treasury and Finance

General Government

15

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

General Government-B9f General Government-B9 GFS

Net Lending/Borrowing (thousand TRY)

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Coherence Indicator (% GDP)*

* Coherence indicator= (B9F-B9)/GDP

Source: CBRT Financial Accounts

Rest of the World

16Source: CBRT Financial Accounts

Net Worth by Sectors (% GDP)

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

2015

-I

201

5-I

I

20

15-I

II

20

15-I

V

2016

-I

201

6-I

I

20

16-I

II

20

16-I

V

2017

-I

201

7-I

I

20

17-I

II

20

17-I

V

2018

-I

201

8-I

I

20

18-I

II

Non-Financial Corporations Rest of the World Households General Government Financial Corporations Total Economy Rest of the World

Rest of the World

17

DIFFERENTDATA SOURCES

COMPAREDATA

COVERAGE

ADAPT IIPAND BOP FOR

FA

REVIEWFINANCIAL

DERIVATIVES

BOP-FA BRIDGETABLE

• FA uses IIP, BOP and Money and Banking statistics as data source

• NFA uses BOP only

Revisions in BOP anf FA

Rest of the World

18

Instrument IIP FA

Deposits (preciousmetal deposit account)

Not included Included

Equity (shares) Fully covered Partially covered

Financial derivatives Not included Included

Other AR/AP-Other Not included Included

Financial assetsMonetary gold and SDRsCurrency and depositsDebt securities LoansEquity and IF Shares/unitsFinancial derivatives Other accounts receivable

Trade credits and advancesOther

LiabilitiesCurrency and depositsDebt securities LoansEquity and IF Shares/unitsFinancial derivatives Other accounts payableTrade credits and advancesOther

Financial net worth

Cash Base Accrual Base

Rest of the World

19

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Rest of the World-B9f Rest of the World-B9

Net Lending/Borrowing (thousand TRY)

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Coherence Indicator (% GDP)*

* Coherence indicator= (B9F-B9)/GDP

Source: CBRT Financial Accounts

Non Financial Corporations

20Source: CBRT Financial Accounts , OECD, Turkstat

Non Financial Corporations’ Liabilities / GDP, Country Comparison

0

2

4

6

8

Gre

ece

Slo

vaki

a

Po

lan

d

Ger

man

y

Slo

ven

ia

Latv

ia

Turk

ey

Au

stri

a

Ital

y

Cze

chia

Hu

nga

ry

Kore

a

Po

rtu

gal

Esto

nia

Fin

lan

d

Spai

n

Euro

Zo

ne

USA

No

rway

Den

mar

k

Bel

giu

m

Net

her

lan

ds

Fran

ce

Swed

en

Irel

and

Non Financial Corporations

21

MULTIPLE ANDDIFFERENT DATA

SOURCESRESIDUAL SECTOR

BRIDGE TABLEFROM TAX DATA

• Same administrative data (Revenue Administration) in FA for some intruments, mainly counterpart data

• Unrecorded economy is included in NFA

• Will be compared after all sectors are consistent

Non Financial Corporations

22

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Non Financial Corporations-B9f Non Financial Corporations-B9

Net Lending/Borrowing (thousand TRY)

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Coherence Indicator (% GDP)*

* Coherence indicator= (B9F-B9)/GDP

Source: CBRT Financial Accounts

Households & NPISH

23Source: CBRT Financial Accounts , OECD, Turkstat

Households’ Liabilities / GDP, Country Comparison

0

1

2

Turk

ey

Hu

nga

ry

Latv

ia

Slo

ven

ia

Cze

chia

Po

lan

d

Esto

nia

Slo

vaki

a

Irel

and

Au

stri

a

Ger

man

y

Ital

y

Gre

ece

Bel

giu

m

Euro

Zo

ne

Spai

n

Fran

ce

Fin

lan

d

USA

Po

rtu

gal

Swed

en

Kore

a

No

rway

Net

her

lan

ds

Den

mar

k

Households & NPISH

24

COUNTERPARTDATA (HH)

+ RESIDUAL SECTOR

• Same administrative data in FA (Revenue Administration) for NPISH for some intruments, mainly counterpart data

• Will be compared after all sectors are consistent

SAME DATA SOURCE (NPISH)

Households & NPISH

25

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Household&NPISH-B9f Household&NPISH-B9

Net Lending/Borrowing (thousand TRY)

0%

1%

2%

3%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Coherence Indicator (% GDP)*

* Coherence indicator= (B9F-B9)/GDP

Source: CBRT Financial Accounts

WAY FORWARD

MOTIVATION AND BACKGROUND

WAY FORWARDCONSISTENCY ISSUES BY SECTOR

26

Way Forward

27

Data Sharing

Common Revision Policy

Consistency & Revisions

• Investment Funds• Financial Auxiliaries

Improvement in Coverage

Semi Annual Workshops

Bridge Tables• General Government• Non Financial Corporations• Insurance Corporations

• GFS Online Platform• Insurance sector data

Thank you…Aycan Ozek

DirectorMonetary and Financial Data DivisionStatitics Department

Phone: +90 312 507 6970E-mail: aycan.ozek@tcmb.gov.tr