From climate informaon to climate services in Water Sector ... · Júcar River Basin District is...
Transcript of From climate informaon to climate services in Water Sector ... · Júcar River Basin District is...
Fromclimateinforma.ontoclimateservicesinWaterSector
JucarRiverStory
TeodoroEstrelaMonrealJúcarRiverBasinAuthority,SpainPermanentSecretaryofMENBO
InSpain,theCCimpactswillbeaggravatedinregionsaffectedbyfrequentdroughtsandwaterscarcityandthusitwillcauseimbalancesbetweenwaterdemandandresources.
Droughts,scarcityandclimatechange
Mapofreduc.onofrunoffwithadecreaseof5%in
themeanannualprecipita.onandincreaseof1ºCinthetemperature
(MMA,2000)
MapofWaterExploita.onIndexinSpanishRiverBasinDistricts.Source:MAPAMA,2016
Studyofpoten.aleffectsofclimatechangeon:
• Thewaterresourcesinanaturalregime• Thewaterdemands(irriga.on,urbansupplyand
industry)• Theavailablewaterresourcesinthewater
resourcessystems.• Theecologicalstatusofwaterbodies.
TheSpanishPlanofAdapta.ontoCC
CurrentWaterExploita.onIndex(WEI)
WaterExploita.onIndex(WEI)2041-2070ScenarioA2
Impactsonwaterresources
Precipitación 1969 Evapotransp. potencial 1969 Humedad suelo 1969
Recarga acuífero 1969 Evapotranspiración 1969 Volumen acuífero 1969
Escorrentía subterránea 1969 Escorrentía superficial 1969 Escorrentía total 1969
DistributedhydrologicalmodelSIMPA.Inputs:Regionalisedclimatescenarios(AEMET).Outputs:monthlymaps(1kmx1km)ofriverinflows,aquifersrecharge,AET,soilmoisture,....
JucarRiverBasinDistrict
Surface ( km2) 42.735
Permanent population (2012)
5.188.660
Equivalent population due to tourism (2012)
409.670
Irrigated surface (ha) 385.000
Water resources (hm3/año)
3.800
Water Demand (hm3/año) 3.120
Afragilebalancebetweenresourcesanddemands
JúcarRiverBasinDistrictisformedbytheaggrega.onofdifferentriverbasinsofdifferenthidro-clima.ccharacteris.cs.
Waterresourcesystems
• Meanannualprecipita.onisaround500mm.• Meanannualrunoffisaround90mm/year,muchlowerthanthemeanvalueinSpain(200mm/year).• 83%ofrunoffcomesfromgroundwater.
WaterresourcesunJucarRBD
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Meanannualrunoff(mm)Annualstreamflows(hm3/year)
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hm3
Streamflows (hm3) in Jucar RBD
Aportación anual Media 1940/41-2011/12 Media 1980/81-2011/12
Non-conven.onalresourcesplayanimportantroleinJúcarRBD
a)Seawaterdesalina.on:currentlyaround10hm3/yearandexpectedtoincreaseintheshortandmediumterm.
b)Reclaimedwater:around120hm3peryear.
c)Externalwaterresources:around50hm3peryearforurbansupplyofAlicante,Elcheandtheirareasofinfluence.
WaterresourcesunJucarRBD
Meanannualvolumeofreclaimedwater(mm)
Desalina.onplantinMuchamiel(Alicante)
Waterdemands
Themostpopulatedurbanareasareonthecoastandinthemaininlandci.es.
Urbandemand:549hm3/year
TheJucarRBDhasanirrigatedsurfaceof385.000ha
Agriculturaldemand:2.470hm3/year
Maininfrastructures
Thereare27reservoirsinopera.onwithaglobalcapacityof3.160hm3
Reservoirs Mainchannels
Thereare95canalsandimportantchannelsinopera.onwithalengthof1.170Km
• JúcarRBDisonethemostaffectedterritoriesinSpainbyCC
• CCstudiesinJúcarRBDwithaglobalmodeldownscaling(ECHAM5)andaregionalmodel(RegCM3).
• Thepredictedimpactonwaterresourcesmeansareduc.onaround21%fortheperiod2010-2040overthecontrolperiod1990-2000.
ClimateChangeimpacts
Nestedgrid
Coarsegrid
Visionofstakeholders
CreateClimateImpactindicators
WebDemonstrator
CaseStudies
Design Implement
EDGE:aCOPERNICUSprojectObject:Apan-Europeanhydro-climateimpactindicatorstowateruserstohelpthemtoimprovedecisionmakingasregardsmi.ga.onandadapta.onstrategiesfacingclimatechange.EDgEwillprovideCCpredic.onsandseasonalforecastforEuropeLeadedbyCentreforEcologyandHydrology(UK).JúcarRBA-MENBOisapartneroftheproject
EDGEproject
Value: €1.6 M Duration: 25 Moths
Focusgroups:
Averypar.cipatoryapproachhasbeenadoptedtocapturingthestakeholderview:
Ø Whomakes/whatdecisionsdotheymake?Ø Whatclimateinforma.ondotheyuse/neednow?Ø Howmightdecisionsbeimproved?
Norway UnitedKingdomSpain
EDGE:Par.cipatoryapproach
Demonstrator:
• Anear-real-.meclimatemonitoringfacility• Maphydro-climateinforma.on• Allowuserstointeractanddownloadthedata• Helpuserstomakedecisions
• Graphicalforecastproducts:• Mul.-modelseasonalforecast• Climateprojec.onsatglobalandregionalscalesto2100
ServiceforSeasonalForecast ServiceforClimateProjec>ons
QdPETmPm
SMmSWEmGRm
EDGE:Demonstrator
• CCwilllikelyaffecttowatermanagementinJúcarRBD• Informa.onaboutCCandeffectsmustbeavailableandeasilyaccessibletoallstake-holdersandwatermanagers.• Seasonal,mediumandlong-term(3-6months),predic.onsarealsoneededinordertoimprovewatermanagement.• Ac.onstolinkmeasuresoftheriverbasinmanagementplanstotheimpactsofClimateChangeshouldbedeveloped.
Thewayforward
Thankyouforyouraken.on