FREIGHT FLOW ANALYSIS AT MAJOR PORTS IN INDIA · INTRODUCTION ne Port Locations - 200 ports - 54...

FREIGHT FLOW ANALYSIS AT MAJOR PORTS IN INDIA

GOPAL R PATIL

Assistant Professor

Department of Civil Engineering

Indian Institute of Technology Bombay

4/15/2014Workshop on Urban Freight Transport: A Global Perspective9-10 April 2014

1

(Contribution from Prasant Sahu, PhD Student)

INTRODUCTION

7516.6

km

s co

astlin

e

Port Locations

- 200 ports

- 54 ports in east coast

- 146 ports in west coast

- India’s seaborne trade

95% by volume & 77% by

value of international trade

- Indian Ports Act, 1908

allows Maritime States to set

up their own port systems

- Major Port trust Act, 1963,

regulates 12 major portsThematic Diagram of Major Port Locations

(Source: www.mapsofindia.com)4/15/2014 Workshop on Urban Freight Transport: A Global Perspective9-10 April 2014 2

http://www.mapsofindia.com/

Growth Dynamics: India’s Port Sector

• Overall average annual growth (major & non-major) 9.2%

(2000-2012)

• Major ports (7.3%) & Non major ports (13.7%)

• Total Traffic, 2000-01: 383.85 Million tons

• Total Traffic, 2012-13: 933.66 Million tons

• Capacity utilization around 90-98% at Major ports

• Highest annual growth in container traffic (15%)

Growth:143%

4/15/2014 Workshop on Urban Freight Transport: A Global Perspective9-10 April 2014 3

Annual average cargo share for major ports (2002-2011)

Sl. No. Port Name Port CodeAnnual Average

Cargo Share (%)

1 Kolkata 1001 8

2 Paradip 1002 10

3 Visakhapatnam 1003 12

4 Chennai 1004 10

5 Tuticorin 1005 5

6 Cochin 1006 3

7 New Mangalore 1007 6

8 Mormugao 1008 7

9 Mumbai 1009 10

10 JNPT (Mumbai) 1010 11

11 Ennore 1011 2

12 Kandla 1012 16


Traffic Variation at each Major Port


Che

nnai

Coc

hin

Enn

ore

JNPT

Kan

dla

Kol

kata

Mor

mug

aoM

umba

i

New

Man

galo

rePar

adip

Tut

icor

in

Vis

akha

patn

am

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100C

argo

Vol

um

e (m

illi

on t

ons)

2011-12

2012-13

Cargo Volume at Indian Ports (2001-2013)

Year

Cargo(million tons) Major

port

Share (%)

Minor

port

Share (%)

Major

Ports

Minor

Ports

Total

Volume

2001-02 287.58 96.27 383.85 74.92 25.08

2002-03 313.55 105.17 418.72 74.88 25.12

2003-04 344.79 120.84 465.63 74.05 25.95

2004-05 383.75 137.83 521.58 73.57 26.43

2005-06 423.56 145.53 569.09 74.43 25.57

2006-07 463.78 186.12 649.9 71.36 28.64

2007-08 519.31 203.62 722.93 71.83 28.17

2008-09 530.53 213.20 743.73 71.33 28.67

2009-10 561.09 288.86 849.95 66.01 33.99

2010-11 570.03 314.85 884.88 64.42 35.58

2011-12 560.13 353.02 913.15 61.34 38.66

2012-13 545.79 387.87 933.66 58.45 41.54

4/15/2014Workshop on Urban Freight Transport: A Global Perspective9-10 April 2014

6

Growth in Indian Seaborne Trade

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16G

row

th (

%)

Year

Indian Seaborne Cargo

Indian GDP

World Trade Volume

World Seborne Cargo


Commodity wise traffic at Major Ports

Commodity

group2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

POL 142.094 153.548 168.299 174.384 179.104 185.981

Iron ore 79.217 80.584 91.993 94.091 60.401 28.472

Fertilizers 12.196 14.136 16.662 18.198 20.386 14.738

coal 68.827 60.351 64.739 70.594 78.785 86.660

Container 62.009 73.469 92.283 93.123 127.876 127.525

Others 59.225 81.694 84.808 79.979 101.364 110.118

Total 423.568 463.782 519.314 530.379 560.137 545.790


75% of containers are handled by JNPT and Chennai PortPOL: Kandla (27%), Mumbai (18%), New Mangalore (12%)

Cargo at Mumbai Port (1900-2012)

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70T

on

na

ge

va

lue

(m

illi

on

to

ns

)

Year

Inbound tonnage

Outbound tonnage

Total tonnage


Commodity Share at Mumbai Port (10 Years)

4/15/2014 Workshop on Urban Freight Transport: A Global Perspective9-10 April 2014

CRL POLP BCHM FTL RPHP SLPH ISTL EDBL

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Co

mm

od

ity

sh

are

(%

)

Commodity

Inbound share (%)

Outbound share(%)

CRL: Crude oil

POLP: Petrol Oil and Lubricant

Products

ISTL: Iron and Steel

BCHM: Bulk Chemicals

FTL: Fertilizers

RPHP: Rock Phosphate

SLPH: Sulfur

EDBL: Edible Oil

Cargo Demand Estimation (Mumbai Port)

• Univariate Regression Models

• Multi-variate Regression Models

• Time series Models


Univariate Regression

Models M1 and M2:

0.47720.820( )Inbound GDP

0.7330.348( )Outbound GDP

Models M3 and M4:

63.219 5.010*10 66.747 0.188Inbound GDP FGP CRLP

64.232 1.001*10 22.277 0.382Outbound GDP FGP CRLP

GDP: Gross Domestic Product in ‘000 crore INR (ten billion

Indian Rupees)

CRLP: Crude Oil Production in million tons

FGP: Food Grain Production in million tons


Statistical parameters for Univariate Models

Tonnage Model R2Adj.

R2F-value

t-statistics

(p-values)

β0(i)

GDP

(β1)

FGP

(β2)

CRLP

(β3)

Inbound

M1 0.836 0.833 254.87816.11

(0.000)

2.49

(0.016)

M3 0.942 0.938 259.8622.31

(0.025)

11.24

(0.000)

3.55

(0.001)

-3.23

(0.002)

Outbound

M2 0.734 0.729 137.96911.87

(0.000)

2.19

(0.023)

M4 0.815 0.809 70.4872.06

(0.045)

2.03

(0.048)

-2.81

(0.025)

4.45

(0.000)


Multivariate Linear Regression ModelModels M5 and M6:

62.485 10.013*10 50.362 0.372Inbound GDP FGP CRLP

63.862 8.002*10 18.864 0.474Outbound GDP FGP CRLP

Statistical parameters for multivariate models

Tonnage Model R2 Adj. R2 F-value

t-statistics

(p-values)

β0i

GDP

(β1)

FGP

(β2)

CRLP

(β3)

Inbound M5 0.967 0.967 468.8482.11

(0.039)

2.79

(0.007)

5.40

(0.001)

-2.34

(0.023)

Outbound M6 0.868 0.862 105.2122.22

(0.000)

3.46

(0.001)

-2.53

(0.024)

6.94

(0.001)


Residual analysis, variance inflation factor (VIF)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Sta

nd

ard

ize

d r

es

idu

als

Predicted inbound tonnage (million tons)

0 4 8 12 16 20-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Sta

nd

ard

ize

d r

es

idu

als

Predicted outbound tonnage (million tons)

Residual PlotsVariance Inflation Factor

Variable VIF

GDP 11.31

FGP 7.47

CRLP 10.1


Validation of Regression Model (16% data)

Prediction error (%) of regression models with validation data

Cargo

OperationModel

Modeling

Approach

Prediction

Error (%)

Inbound

M1Univariate regression

(nonlinear)12.84

M3Univariate multiple

regression15.89

M5 Multivariate regression 8.81

Outbound

M2Univariate regression

(nonlinear)18.90

M4 Univariate regression 17.28

M6 Multivariate regression 9.65


Validation of Regression Models contd.

19541965197019721988198919972005200820090

10

20

30

40T

on

na

ge

va

lue

(m

illi

on

to

ns

)

Year

Actual inbound tonnage

Predicted inbound tonnage

19541965197019721988198919972005200820090

5

10

15

20

25

To

nn

ag

e v

alu

e (

mil

lio

n t

on

s)

Year

Actual outbound tonnage

Predicted outbound tonnage

4 12 20 28 36

8

16

24

32

40

R2=98.3%

Pre

dic

ted

in

bo

un

d t

on

na

ge

(m

illi

on

to

ns

)

Actual inbound tonnage (million tons)

0 6 12 18 240

6

12

18

24

R2=98.8%

Pre

dic

ted

ou

tbo

un

d t

on

na

ge

(m

illi

on

to

ns

)

Actual outbound tonnage (million tons)


Vector autoregressive model

Model Structure:

t

t

t

t

t

t

Y

Y

c

c

Y

Y

2

1

12

11

1

22

1

12

1

21

1

11

2

1

2

1

tttt YYcY 112

1

1211

1

1111

tttt YYcY 212

1

2211

1

2122

Y1t= Inbound freight flow at time t

Y2t = Outbound freight flow at time t


VAR (1) MODEL

Models M7 and M8:

12111 0429.00214.11377.0 ttt YYY

12112 9316.00863.01612.0 ttt YYY

Inbound

Parameter Estimate t- value p-value

0.1377 8.790 0.0318

1.0214 36.39 0.0001

0.0429 4.220 0.0238

Outbound

0.1612 9.820 0.0137

0.0863 2.730 0.0075

0.9316 23.58 0.0001

1c1

111

12

2c1

211

22


Prediction Error(%) – Time series model

ErrorInbound

ErrorOutbound

10001001

10021003

10041005

10061007

10081009

10101011

10121013

1014

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Figure - 4: Flow Prediction Error Plot

Pred

icti

on

Erro

r (

%)

Port Code


Var(1) Model to Forecast

Models developed using data till 2011-12:

12111 0526.00205.10921.0 ttt YYY

12112 83126.00636.00513.0 ttt YYY

FlowProjected tonnage value (million tons)

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

Inbound

flow

40.579

(40.060)

(1.3%)

42.299 44.039 45.809

Outbound

flow

16.864

(17.978)

(6.2%)

16.598 16.487 16.505


Actual and Predicted Tonnage

1890 1905 1920 1935 1950 1965 1980 1995 2010-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Inbound observed

Outbound observed

Inbound/outbound predicted

Year

Inb

ou

nd

(m

illi

on

to

ns

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Ou

tbo

un

d (m

illion

ton

s)

- Inbound flow continues steep and upward trend

- Outbound decreases till 2014-15 and then increases


Conclusions

• India’s seaborne trade 95% by volume & 77% by value of

international trade

• Overall annual growth (2000-2012): 9.2%

• Capacity Utilization at Major Ports: 90-98%

• Ports in MMR (JNPT & MbPT) handles 21% of the total

cargo by major ports

• Major ports share decreased from 75% in 2001 to about 58%

in 2013

• Exponential Growth in cargo volume in the last decade

• Crude Oil (CRL) and Petroleum, oil and Lubricant products

(POLP) are the primary commodities at Mumbai port


Conclusions

• GDP, food grain production, and crude oil production are

found to be significant in inbound and outbound cargo

demand estimation

• Univariate regression models are reasonably good, but

multivariate regression models are better

• Inbound demand models’ prediction is better than outbound

models


FREIGHT FLOW ANALYSIS AT MAJOR PORTS IN INDIA · INTRODUCTION ne Port Locations - 200 ports - 54...

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