Forest Carbon Partnership Facility

Global Dialogue on Developing a Readiness Preparation Proposal

August 13-14, 2009

REDD Strategy

Carbon balance land use change and forestry sector by region

Tr. Asia

USATr. Africa

Tr. Am

China

Source: Houghton (2003)

• Emissions climbing• But reductions possible: China, India• Which future path will be taken?

Positive Values = Emissions

What is the REDD

strategy

Identify options to reduce emissions, or tackle potential drivers

…in the best cost-effective way

…in the most sustainable (long term) way possible

… which takes into account additional benefits, and

… which identifies and discusses potential environmental and social risks associated with the different options.

REDD strategy would analyze the trade-offs between different options and identify the priorities Identify investments and operational costs for the

options identified

REDD Strategy would build on existing strategies (Forest Strategies, Infra-structure etc.)

What is the REDD strategy?

What is required in a

REDD Strategy?

Analyze the different strategies available Forest Strategy Infra-structure Plans Economic development plans, etc.

Analyze existing strategies as to their impacts on DD and identify analytical gaps

Identify different strategy options and analyze their effectiveness, costs, feasibility, co-benefits and environmental and social impacts – define priorities!

Example: Brazilian Deforestation Plan Promoted by the Presidency with the

participation of all relevant Ministries and sub-national entities

budget/responsibilities

What is the REDD

strategy

What is required in a REDD Strategy?

Global REDD Opportunity

Cost & Potential

Almost 50% reduction possible for mean estimate price of $10 per ton of CO2

Estimate: Global model estimations based on DIMA, GTM and GCOMAPSource: Kinderman et al, 2008; Union of Concerned Scientists. www.ucsusa.org

Global REDD Opportunity Cost & Potential

How much does it cost

to reach Readiness?

Costs include:• Opportunity costs• Implementation costs• Transaction costs• Political costs

Investment and Maintenance costs will depend on:How a country defines Readiness:

Capacity building, governance improvements and carbon assessment are expandable terms

Size of the country and the overall challenge

Existing institutions and technical challenges:Existing strategies?Existing monitoring capacity? Inventories and carbon assessmentsGovernance challenges

Accuracy of monitoring and reporting desired

How much does it cost to reach Readiness?

Countries Likely to Define Location & Risk (additionality) of Deforestation, Spatially Resolved

Note: national programlikely to focus on key subnationalProjects & areas …

• REDD Opportunities Vary by Opportunity Cost (OC) of Land, C Density, and Threat of Deforestation

• Can we identify low-OC, medium – high C and deforestation threat lands, with low barriers to implementation, and target them for REDD ER activities?

• What are priority governance concerns with these targeted lands and REDD strategies, by country?

Gibbs, H. and S. Brown. 2007. Geographical Distribution of Biomass Carbon in Tropical Southeast Asian Forests: A

Database. ORNL/CDIAC.

Deforestation Threat & C Density Class, for East Kalimantan(Gibbs and Brown, 2007)

Challenge: REDD Will Need to Address Dynamic Land Use Change, Cost, & Governance Issues