Foresight General Concept & Methodology

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This presentation by myForesight – Malaysian Foresight Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported License. This basically allows you to use the presentation as you like as long as you acknowledge the source.

RUSHDI ABDUL RAHIM [email protected]

FORESIGHT CONCEPT & METHODOLOGY

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The Governing Board ....provide advise on the strategic direction and focus areas of the institute

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www.might.org.my

www.myforesight.my

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periodic publications

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Introduction to Foresight & Futures

Foresight tools and methodology

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“However good our futures research may be, we shall never be able to escape from the ultimate dilemma that all our knowledge is about the past, and all our decision are about the future” IAN WILSON

“The only way to predict the future is to have power to shape

the future” ERIC HOFFER

“The present moment contains past and future. The secret of

transformation, is in the way we handle this very moment.”

NHAT HANH

“Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive a country road with no lights while looking out the back window” PETER DRUCKER

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foresight & futures thinking

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future is not necessarily continuation of the past

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1 2 3

4 5

By 1967, London would be buried six

feet deep in horse dung!

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predictions gone wrong

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“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, 1977 President, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC)

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“Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin, 1895 British mathematician and physicist, President of the British Royal Society.

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“The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” Sir William Preece, 1878 Chief Engineer, British Post Office,

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what is Foresight?

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“Foresight is a matter of studying the present, learning from the past and understanding the needs of the future”

Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad

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Learning of the past to ensure we avoid repeating

mistakes

USING THE PAST & FUTURE TO DECIDE ON

TODAY

Understanding & exploring futures to mitigate risk and maximizing

opportunities

Certain. Things have happened • Can’t change • Historical data

Moving. Constant changes • Respond & adapt • Shape & influence

Uncertain. Have not happened • Shape & influence

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…Foresight prepares us to meet the need and

opportunities of the future... It is not planning

but merely a step in planning…

Joseph Coates

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The terms ‘Foresight’ and ‘Futures’ are largely interchangeable, referring to:

‘systematic and purposeful processes of future-oriented deliberation between participants with a view to identifying actions to be taken, or

goals to be pursued for better future outcomes.’

FORESIGHT

Participation Stakeholders Engagement

Action Policy-making

& Planning

Anticipation Prospective

& Futures

Adopted from: R. Popper

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objectives of Foresight

Direction setting: provides direction and focus for national strategic planning and other strategy to realize the objectives of Vision or Goals

Determining priorities: perhaps the most important aim of Foresight and the driving force in most of the documented country exercises against a background of resources restraint and increasing demands

Anticipatory intelligence: identification of emerging trends with major implications for future policy making

Consensus generation: promotion of greater agreement among stakeholders on identified needs or opportunities

Advocacy: promotion of policy decisions in line with preferences of specific stakeholders in the system

Communication and education: promotion of internal communication within the stakeholders community, promotion of external communications with users of policy and wider education of the general public, politicians and bureaucrats.

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http://www.google.com.my/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=9FigwJU2nyBfjM&tbnid=4ky5IAGQm9bAKM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwADjCAQ&url=http://www.innovation.teicrete.gr/&ei=tBsZUeG2KcW4rAfD64C4BA&psig=AFQjCNHAJYOezcHABufL3urM2CCTxBrz7w&ust=1360686388743174

http://www.google.com.my/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=foresight+Gov.UK&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=u0wwo4abkVSdIM&tbnid=YyWrmTICKZLSLM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://dementiachallenge.dh.gov.uk/2012/05/22/about-dementia/&ei=vhsZUZaVK-WjiAedmYC4DQ&bvm=bv.42080656,d.bmk&psig=AFQjCNGQwwzYhm6S_JHxPeIYrEPEUdGJ3g&ust=1360686308997732

http://www.google.com.my/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=WJrMHBHvlUQRLM&tbnid=Xll5fbzzzZ1XSM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwAA&url=http://scout.org/en/multi_media/images/logo_emblem/unep&ei=thoZUcOoFMj5rAfNtIHADQ&psig=AFQjCNESNQA2QeuwtyrO9_NrdID-DWM_UQ&ust=1360686134364134

http://www.google.com.my/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=lFEHOd_ZAx9OrM&tbnid=I2FL3zOVD9hV8M:&ved=0CAgQjRwwAA&url=http://www.grforum.org/pages_new.php/oecd-workshop/881/1/730/&ei=rCMZUdHsCoSqrAeFjYC4Cg&psig=AFQjCNHWGHBlckXmQuXXAmWfZm6dQkxSbw&ust=1360688428213867

http://www.google.com.my/url?sa=i&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=vFzBd1whxmrmYM&tbnid=k7xHt4mZ3dGBQM:&ved=0CAgQjRwwAA&url=http://www.arabhum.net/en/sources/united-nations-industrial-development-organization-unido&ei=8SMZUbW2L4eHrAfK5YGgAQ&psig=AFQjCNGjFB68Jxol_TWq77hwUr65qp0PRg&ust=1360688497809279

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Introduction to Foresight & Futures

Foresight tools and methodology

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the tools & methods

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Scenario Planning

Technology Prioritization

Online Survey

Bibliography Analysis

Patent Analysis

STEEP Analysis

Delphi

Expert Panels

Workshops & Focus Groups

choosing the right method

• To negate the relatively high level of cynicism of the stakeholders;

• To enable change of thinking and mind set;

• To inculcate and incorporate discipline and subjectivity. This includes receptiveness towards methods and systematic approaches of foresight;

• To ensure engagement of diverse and equal distribution of participants;

• The need to sustain continued interest in the foresight exercises by introducing creative and participatory approaches;

• Enabling use of multi tools environment

• The need to educate potential stakeholders on the benefits and potential impact of foresight;

Methods that were chosen signify the needs to cater its adoption to Malaysia’s case studies. Therefore the selection

and combination of methods are made to ensure the best outcome and participation of stakeholders in Malaysia. This

includes but not limited to the following:-

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generic Foresight process

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how we do it?

Data Collection & Analysis

Scenario Building

Identification & Recommendations

DIAGNOSIS

PROGNOSIS

PRESCRIPTION

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how we do it?

What are the objectives?

What Time Horizon are we looking at?

Building on existing resources and

materials

What is the cost?

Who are the stakeholders?

Stakeholders availability?

How much time do you have?

Matching skills & competencies…

Data Collection & Analysis

Scenario Building

Identification & Recommendations

DIAGNOSIS

PROGNOSIS

PRESCRIPTION

Foresight Scoping

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Scenarios Analysis

Scenarios Building

the process

List of Sector’s Drivers

Consolidation of data gathering - Sector

Social

Technology

Economy

Environment

Policy

Key Strategic Areas & Action

Plan

Defining criteria Feasibility

Signposts

List of Candidates

Opportunities & Threats

Delivery, Utilization &

Feedback

Intelligence Processes

List of key stakeholders

Influence & relationship

Participation Scale

Review of Listing

Scenario Writing

Direction of Change

Drivers Networks Analysis

Impact – Uncertainty

Analysis

Ma

in P

roce

ss

List of Drivers of Change

Preliminary Listing Environmental Scanning

Need Analysis

Primary Research

Analysis

Review of Scenario

Products & Services

Defining criteria Attractiveness

Evaluation of Strategy & Action

plan

Review of list of Candidates

Data Intelligence & Horizon Scanning

Sta

ge

s

1 3 4 5 6 2

Drivers Formulation

Stakeholders’ Mapping

Recommendation

Secondary Research

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Diagnosis

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• Scoping

• Weak signals

• Mega trends

• Drivers of change

• Plausible scenarios

• Future niche

• Future priority areas

• Strategies

horizon scanning

Source: myForesight® analytics

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myForesight® trend scanning framework utilizes the STEEP approach that is also known by a number of different acronyms; PEST, STEEP, STEEPV, PESTELV & SEPTED but generally they all follow a similar framework and identify similar issues. The analysis is very useful as it offers a wide ranging framework from which to identify main drivers and build scenarios

looking at all perspectives

STEEPV analysis

SOCIAL FORCES ECONOMIC

FORCES

POLITICAL FORCES

ENVIRONMENT FORCES

TECHNOLOGY FORCES

VALUE FORCES

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lenses


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diagnosis ecosystem


Political Economic Social Technological Environment Legal Value

External Factors Trends, Issues & Challenges

Internal Factors Trends, Issues & Challenges

Driver 1

Actor: Champion, sponsors & project team (overall

structure)

Participation & Target Groups: Stakeholders (Government, Industry, Academia,

Associations, NGO, Clients, regulators etc.

Driver n Pu

rpo

se

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MEGA TRENDS

impact

relativity risk, threat & opportunities

long term

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“Technology will have ingrained itself into

every sphere of human activity”

“by 2015, 1 trillion devices will be

interconnected, exchanging

information”

“Technology intrusiveness, human

literally live in technology”

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“Technology will understand data they’re

processing”

“Machines will increasingly be able to work autonomously”

“Technology will be replacing routine & unsociable work ”

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“Technology will be relating to humans in

human like ways”

“Humans will form emotional attachments

to technology”

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“Accelerating rate of technology convergence &

application”

“Development of new and novel applications

& usage”

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Prognosis

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……is a story with plausible cause and effect links that connects a future condition with the present, while illustrating key decisions, events, and consequences throughout the

narrative.

What is a Scenario? – Foresight Perspective

not predictions or forecasts

stories that describe how things might be in the future

based on an analysis of change drivers

simplify some of the apparent complexity in the world

http://www.google.com.my/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=visioning the future&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=ci-UosgsaBxHvM&tbnid=sfbnCfSpViH1dM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://main.cadbayuc.org/programming/family/&ei=HZfuUaKUCMrarAfr9YHoDA&bvm=bv.49641647,d.bmk&psig=AFQjCNGHN21KLQ1aOXE-gWpntdBL47REDQ&ust=1374676985467167

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Typical Scenarios

..is a statement about the plausible state of an observation at a certain point in the future

Present

Image of the Future

Scenario α

Directions of Change, X

Directions of Change, Y

Directions of Change, Z

Scenario β

Scenario Ω

http://www.google.com.my/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=multiple arrows&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=1DZhhl5hh_VtJM&tbnid=ScKs7kjgj9gjFM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.e-junkie.info/2012/03/2012-year-of-multichannel-retailing.html&ei=kervUcbaLIKOrQeg9oDgDA&bvm=bv.49641647,d.bmk&psig=AFQjCNG5hpiGZwUDVQiWV-XoAaZ8Pu7UGg&ust=1374764026946962

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Type of Scenarios

There are multiple type of scenarios… 2x2 …archetype… multi drivers

BEST CASE

WORST CASE

BUSINESS AS USUAL

WILD CARD

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• Drivers are the key forces in the macro-environment that underpin important trends and issues.

• Some of these forces are largely predetermined (e.g. often demographics), whilst some are highly uncertain (e.g. oil and gas prices).

• When constructing scenarios, it is very useful to know what is inevitable and necessary and what is unpredictable and a matter of choice.

Understanding drivers of change

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The South African Mont Fleur project:

• Mont Fleur was intended to influence the future of South Africa through the development of several scenarios about how things might unfold over the coming decades.

• The project took place right in the middle of a complex period of many kinds of negotiations about how to make the transition away from apartheid.

• The Mont Fleur work was done by a team of leaders drawn from organizations that ranged across the political map: community activists, conservative politicians, ANC officials, trade unionists, academics, establishment economists, top corporate executives.

Adam Kahane, Generon

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The 4 scenarios of Mont Fleur

• Ostrich

was a story of the white government believing that it could avoid a negotiated settlement with the black majority, burying its head in the sand, and thereby making make matters worse in the end

• Lame Duck

told the story of a prolonged transition where the new government is hobbled by compromises built into the constitution and, because “it purports to respond to all but satisfies none”, it doesn’t address the country’s problems

• Icarus

described a strong black majority government coming to power on a wave of popular support and embarking on a huge, unsustainable public spending spree that crashes the economy

• Flight of the Flamingos

was a story about how the new government could avoid the pitfalls of the first three scenarios and gradually rebuild a successful economy

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Prescriptions

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from scenarios to strategies

Actions that are needed whatever the scenario

(Imperatives)

Actions needed to reach a preferred future outcome

(Preferences)

Recommendations for future strategy

& action

Strategic implications

Drivers of change

Issues & trends

Scenarios

Involves assessing actions against capabilities and competencies, identifying opportunities and

reviewing risks

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analysing the scenarios

• Once we have defined our scenarios, we need to ask:

How might we know if this scenario is emerging?

What would be leading indicators (sign posts)?

What should we be monitoring?

• Undertake comparison of the different scenario

• Are there issues, strategies, etc. that apply across all or many of these?

• Usually the workshop will end with some examination/ prioritisation of actions

“Strategy" is the art of determining how you'll "win" in business and life.

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Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4

Strategy element 1

Strategy element 2

Strategy element n

testing the strategy

To test out the strategic responses that we just developed for our own scenarios, in other groups’ scenarios. This will give us a sense of how robust (or not) our responses are.

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Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Scenario 3

• Identifying possible actions through break-out groups (per scenario) or via other approaches – Who should do WHAT, WHEN, with what targets & indicators

• Relating actions to scenarios – How do various projects look in the different scenario

• Prioritising & Selecting Activities – Which to do now, later, keep on back burner, how much resource (or what kind) to invest etc.

• What does this mean for ongoing planning and strategizing: intra-and inter-organisation dimensions

translating scenarios

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Analyze the scenarios (α, β & Ω) and suggest potential opportunities and threats potentially resulting from the scenarios

identifying future opportunities & threats /risks


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Each areas/strategy/items are ranked according to:-

identification & prioritization

Feasibility (Readiness)

• Maturity & acceptance, time horizon of impact;

• Application potential & diffusion;

• Resources & infrastructure.

Attractiveness (Socio Economic)

• Economic & industrial impact;

• Competition;

• Social impact;

• Knowledge generation;

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prioritisation diagram

Likelihood to happen

Imp

act

Score of 4 or higher Higher priority field with strong attractiveness & feasibility potential

Medium Score ( 3 to 4) Field that could be selected after more careful & detail cost benefit analysis

Score under 2 points Limited attractiveness & feasibility potential

Lim

ited

Su

bst

anti

al

Seri

ou

s V

ery

Seri

ou

s C

atas

tro

ph

ic

Highly unlikely

Unlikely Possible Likely Highly likely

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key players in OTEC technology

35

18

37

27 34

18

6

6

6

6

6

8

4

5

3

5 5

5 5

Platform Mooring Pump Turbine Heat exchanger Cold Water Pipe

Patent distribution based on technology areas

LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION, US THE ABELL FOUNDATION, INC., US

OTEC DEVELOPMENTS, US PRUEITT MELVIN L, US

United States Department of Energy,US

Top five (5) companies patents filed distribution based on technology areas from 2009 to 2014 . Lockheed Martin corporation and Abell Foundation INC. are found to be the main contributors in OTEC research based on patents filed in six technology areas.


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technology focus area

Technology Areas: i. Improvement of existing platforms, ii. Platform mooring iii. Pumps iv. Turbines v. Heat exchanger vi. Cold water pipes

15

8

28

21 22

7

15 14

50

30 27

5

39

28

49

39

33

11

26

8

31

27

23

11

24

17

39

35 32

13

18

9

25

13 16

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

platform

platform Mooring

pump

turbine

heat exchanger

cold water pipe

Number of patent registered (2009-2014) on OTEC Technology; Pumps, turbines and heat exchanger technologies are the areas that most focus from 2009 to 2014


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bibliography analysis


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Foresight… Mindset vs Method

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Politically correct & sensitivity

Stakeholders engagement - organisations vs. individuals

Schedule and timeline – holidays, ad hoc meetings

Foresight vs. traditional strategic management

planning Adapting Foresight to non-

academic practice Fast result, immature

analysis ?

Challenges in Foresight activities

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…based on experiences in implementing the case studies, there are several critical components that would enhance effectiveness in transforming policy

planning into actions as follows:

• Intermediaries – there is a need for a strong intermediary role especially involving cross-ministerial and multi-sectoral domains as well as capable of performing strategic thinking on top of secretariat works.

• Align to the national agenda – there is a need to integrate and synergy with the national agenda (big picture)

• Champions – there is a need to identify and get buy-in at the early stage from relevant stakeholders which will involve actively in the implementation stage

• Strategic Platforms – leverage and maximise the use of available means such as strategic partnership, offsets program, national council, to name a few.

Key Enablers – Foresight to Policy Making & Implementation

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the end

RUSHDI ABDUL RAHIM

[email protected]

Foresight General Concept & Methodology

Presentations & Public Speaking

Transcript of Foresight General Concept & Methodology