Systemic Foresight Methodology

Dr. Ozcan Saritas

Manchester Institute of Innovation ResearchThe University of Manchester

The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

12 & 13 May 2011

– The increasing importance of innovation (both technological and organisational) and the development of service economies

– Increased financial, trade and investment flows– Rapid and accelerating technological progress; ICTs,

biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies– Global value chains and new international regulations and

standards on trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights

– Other developments including changes in demographic structures and in cultural practices, and environmental affairs, advancements in S&T

– Recognition of the close relationship between S&T and Society

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Increasing push for greater efficiency and decarbonisation of the energy system because of the environmental and energy security concerns

Trends

Environmental policies change behaviours and shift societal actions more toward integral or internalized measures – such as recycling requirements

Drivers of change

• Understanding– Real-life systems and natural settings with a multi-contextual focus– Increasing interrelationships and interdependencies and thus more complex and uncertain

situations

• Anticipation– Understanding, appreciating and modelling present & anticipated long-term developments

– Intelligence gathering to explore novel ideas and avoid shocks

• Inclusivity– Interactive and participative ways of debate and analysis– Continuous interaction of stakeholders on equal terms– Establishment of new social networks

• Policy and action orientation– Elaboration of strategic visions based on a shared sense of commitment– Implications for present-day decisions and actions

• Methodological support– Using quantitative and qualitative methods and building methodologies by combining them

to fit for purpose– Integration of best practices, methods and tools

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Intelligence – Creates shared understanding and mutual

appreciation of issues at hand Imagination

– The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world

Integration– Analyses the alternative models of the future

and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future

Interpretation– Translates future visions into long-,

medium-, and short-term actions for a successful change programme

Intervention– Creates plans to inform present day

decisions for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations

Interaction

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Scanning

PanelsWorkshops

Bibliometrics/ Data Mining

LiteratureReview

Interviews

SystemAnalysis

Trends/DriversIndicators

Scanning for Intelligence gathering“The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends” (DEFRA, 2002)Selecting the main areas for intervention, the boundaries of the Foresight are drawn and the ‘content’ of Foresight is built with scanningScanning provides the basic input to the entire activity and involves analysis of such as Trends, Drivers of Change, Surprises/Shocks, Discontinuities

Systemic Foresight Methodology

What kind of developments will occur? Which ones of them could be beneficial and which ones harmful? How soon may these developments occur? What might be the first signs that these developments are

happening? Where and how might the leading indications of impending change

be seen? Who is in a position anywhere to observe these indications? What is worth to minimise the extent of surprise introduced by these

indications? Who needs to know about these impending changes?

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Social system

Technological system

Economic system

Ecological system

Political system

Values

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Systemic Foresight Methodology

10

Urban Poverty – issues (<1999)

11

Urban Poverty – issues (2000-09)

12

Urban Poverty – issues (2010-19)

Urban Poverty - centrality measuresbased on Freeman’s degree of centrality

  <1999 2000-2009 2010-2019 2020-2029 2030 <

 1 Poverty (170) Poverty (105) Urban (406) Population (36) Rural (18)

 2 Urbanisation (156)

Slums (92) Poverty (394) Sanitation (36) Poverty (18)

 3 Food (131) Sanitation (83) Population (379) Water (25) Migration (18)

 4 Rural (121) Rural (76) Growth (350) Rural (25) Urbanisation (18)

 5 Population (121) Food (73) Slums (340) Urban (25) Malnutrition (11)

 6 Water (115) Population (69) Disaster (320) Urbanisation (21)

Food (11)

 7 Migration (110) Migration (69) Public transport (314)

Poverty (13) Sanitation (11)

 8 Sanitation (97) Urbanisation (67)

Transport (314) Housing (13) Health (11)

 9 Urban (94) Urban (66) Policy (281) Transport (13) Land (11)

 10 Education (88) Health (64) Cities (281) Land (13) Water (11)

 11 Agreements (75) Defecation (62) Road (268) Health (13) Transport (11)

 12 Health (70) Water (62) Lifestyle (262) Migration (13) Housing (11)

 13 Sustainability (70) Toilets (62) Landslide (238) Business (8) Handicrafts (7)

 14 Environment (70) Economy (58) Catastrophe (238) Economy (8) Environment (7)

 15 Slums (67) Malnutrition (53) Congestion (238) Agriculture (8) Agriculture (7)

Gaming

PanelsWorkshops

ScenarioPlanning

Wild CardWeak Signals

NetworkAnalysis

Modelling/ Simulation

Agent BasedModelling

“Imagination is more than knowledge” – A. Einstein

Generation of new ideas or concepts, or new associations between existing ideas or concepts

Production of models to promote understanding of systems and situations within the limits of uncertainties

Modelling formalises thought experiments leads to the further development of Foresight process and presentation of the outcome

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Systemic Foresight Methodology

People of the year 2000, amazed at the sight of a horse. (French postcard circa 1910)

Systemic Foresight Methodology

1-year Present

The time it takes planet earth to circle the sun onceCycle of seasonsUnit of time measurement for human livesFarming and crop rotation

10-year Present

Sizeable chunk of a human lifetimeLong enough to provide insight into dynamic processesIdeal for noting environmental and ecological factorsA reasonable horizon for testing new products and servicesThe time it takes to plan and build major infrastructure items

20-year Present

Cycle of generations for human beings: (Veterans, 1922-1943); (Baby Boomers, 1943-1960); (Generation Xs (1960-1980);The Nexters (1980-2000))Long enough to observe the economics and social impact of strategic R&D activities, e.g. the identification of CFCsscientifically and the sign of the international contract to take precautionary measures (1974-1990)

50-year PresentIncorporates some major concerns of a technologically advanced cultureCulturally significant period to understand trends and change processesEnough to judge the impacts and implications of existing and new technologies

100-year Present

Boundary of a single lifetimeLong cycles can be distinguishedThe rise and fall of regions, industries and ecosystemsTheories and history and futures begin to flourish

200-year Present

Ideal timeframe for cultures in transitionA time with which generations are linkedEnough to develop intergenerational biography and dialogueThe rise and fall of cultures, empires and entire ecosystemsMacro view of history; the panorama of the centuries

Systemic Foresight Methodology

From Networks to Evolutionary Scenarios

2000 - 2009 2010 - 2019

The history of the future

< 1999

T

Wi

Di

We

DT

Di

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D T

Wi

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SWOTAnalysis

PanelsWorkshops

Multi CriteriaAnalysis

Cross ImpactAnalysis

Prioritisation/ Delphi

Benefit/Cost/Risk Analysis

ScoringVoting/Rating

Concerned with the systemic analysis of future alternatives and building a vision

The analysis and selection of a desired system is multifaceted as there is a variety of worldviews and expectations to be negotiated.

For a system to be viable in the long term, the claims of different stakeholders must be considered adequately, and attention must be given to ethical and aesthetic aspects for the pursuit of ideals such as beauty, truth, good and plenty (Ackoff, 1981).

The end product of this phase is an agreed model of the future

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Backcasting

PanelsWorkshops

Road Mapping

RelevanceTrees

Logic Charts

StrategicPlanning

LinearProgramming

Translates visions into strategies for a successful change programme.

Conditions for the successful transformation strategies:- Assessment (e.g. processing information;

developing an understanding of the continuously changing context; and becoming an open learning system)

- Leadership (e.g. having a context-sensitive leadership; creating capabilities for change; and linking actions with resources)

- Linking strategic and operational change (e.g. supplying visions, values and directions)

- Management of human resources (e.g. demonstrating the need for change in people and behaviours)

- Coherence (e.g. adaptive response to environment; and maintaining competitive advantage)

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Priority Lists

PanelsWorkshops

ImpactAssessment

R&DPlanning

Critical/KeyTechnologies

OperationalPlanning

Action Planning

Any Foresight exercise has to inform policies and actions.

Foresight suggests actions concerning immediate change actions to implement structural and behavioural transformations.

Actions for change are determined by considering the following capabilities of the system under investigation:- Adapting- Influencing and shaping its context- Finding a new milieu or modelling itself virtuously in

its context- Adding value to the viability and development of

wider wholes in which it is embedded

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Inte

rac

tio

n

• Shift from ‘government’ to ‘governance’ and thus a new ‘regulatory’ system– Inclusiveness and equity through freedom of association and

expression, and an organised civil society with full protection of human rights

– Democratic society influencing, restraining or blocking policy design and implementation

– Contributions from society, firms, institutions, and associations to enhance public policy within a new normative and legal framework

– Effectiveness and efficiency in meeting society’s expectations and sustainable use of resources

• The quest for new forms of governance is structured around three pillars: Governance, Socio-cultural evolution & Corporate industrial activity

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Science &Ecology

Technology& Economics

SocioeconomicsPolitics & Values

What is possible?

What is desirable?

What is feasible?

Systemic Foresight

Systemic Foresight

Systemic Foresight Methodology

InterventionInterpretationImaginationIntelligence Integration

Scanning

PanelsWorkshops

Inte

ract

ion

Bibliometrics/ Data Mining

LiteratureReview

Interviews

SystemAnalysis

Trends/DriversIndicators

Priority Lists

PanelsWorkshops

ImpactAssessment

R&DPlanning

Critical/KeyTechnologies

OperationalPlanning

Action Planning

Gaming

PanelsWorkshops

ScenarioPlanning

Wild CardWeak Signals

NetworkAnalysis

Modelling/ Simulation

Agent BasedModelling

SWOTAnalysis

PanelsWorkshops

Multi CriteriaAnalysis

Cross ImpactAnalysis

Prioritisation/ Delphi

Benefit/Cost/Risk Analysis

ScoringVoting/Rating

Backcasting

PanelsWorkshops

Road Mapping

RelevanceTrees

Logic Charts

StrategicPlanning

LinearProgramming

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Objectives of the Regional Foresight exercise: Policies and strategies for the Renewable Energies sector (e.g. improve

competitiveness of companies, scientific organizations and intermediaries; establish the capital region as relevant and attractive location; improve services; and exploit a large market in the region and beyond)

Identification of key technologies (e.g. identify key technologies for the next 10-20 years; promote technology learning; strengthen technology transfer; utilize existing technologies; and involve in the development, shaping and expert technologies)

Structural and organizational improvement of the sector (e.g. improve collaboration among actors; improve supplier / value chains; initiate new partnerships and investments; establish state-wide SME network; and establish international activities)

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Scanning: For the analysis of STEEPV systems to understand what type of energies will be needed and what kind of demand will come out

Key Indicators / Forecasting: For the analysis of sectoral forecasts and long term projections

Mega trend analysis: To understand the broad policy tendencies at the Global/European/National levels

Synthesis of previous work: Large amount of the work on energy futures exists including plenty of scenario work (reviewing those scenarios would be useful to suggest a set of “synthesis scenarios”)

Scenarios: To discover alternative futures on policy developments

SWOT analysis of the regional capabilities against the visionary scenario

Roadmapping: Illustrating the priority areas, the actions to be taken in long, medium and short terms and the distribution of initiatives among the actors in the sector

Policy Recommendations: Policy actions to be taken in the short term

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Scanning: For the analysis of STEEPV systems and discuss their implications on technologies

Bibliometrics/Literature Review: For the review the technologies to generate energy and discuss in panels which are relevant and promising for the region

Key Indicators/Forecasts: Analysis of sectoral forecasts and long term projections on technologies

Synthesis: For the review and synthesis of the previous Foresight work

Scenarios with wide participation (including citizens) identify the ‘demands of society’ from the technology

Delphi: Represents the ‘supply’ side – whether the demands in the scenarios are possible and feasible or not. Helps to define time of realisation for selected technologies and technology areas. Also helps to identify priority technologies

Roadmaps: For the development of Technology Roadmaps for prioritised technologies at different levels such as Technology – Product / Capability / Development / Research

Produce a list of critical technologies Suggest R&D projects and plan R&D activities and resources

Systemic Foresight Methodology

System Analysis: Analysis of the value chain helps to come to a better understanding of how the sector works and what the actors / stakeholders are

Clustering by stakeholder mapping helps to map the actors in the sector and to indicate ‘who is doing what’

Mega trend analysis: Sectoral megatrends will give clues on changing roles in the sectors and inclusion of new actors / stakeholders in the process in the future

Scenarios: Various scenarios around Input-Output relationships illustrate the future organisation of the sector

SWOT analysis of the existing structures against the structures suggested in the visionary / most desirable scenario

Delphi: To identify types of collaborations needed among stakeholders in order to establish new links in the system

Strategic plans: for the restructuring of the sector in the medium term

Action planning: To suggest immediate actions to change / improve structures and organisations and to introduce new rules and regulations

Systemic Foresight Methodology

METHODS Policy Path Tech Path Structural Path

Scanning

Bibliometrics

Literature Review

Key Indicators

Stakeholder Mapping

System Analysis

Megatrend Analysis

Scenarios

Weak Signals

SWOT Analysis

Delphi Survey

Roadmapping

Relevance Trees

Strategic Planning

Critical / Key Techs

R&D Planning

Policy Recommendations

Action Planning

• Foresight practice has moved from being ‘systematic’ to ‘systemic’

• Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) concerns ‘situations’, which is characterised by sets of events that may be that may be coincident or serial or both that create a situation not a problem

• Provides greater awareness and understanding and appreciation of complex Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political and Value (STEEPV) systems

• SFM involves a ‘soft process of inquiry’ , which is characterised by subjective opinion

• SFM meets expectations for inclusivity, transparency and inclusivity

Systemic Foresight Methodology

Systemic Foresight Methodology