MEPLAN I f ti ti MEPLAN I f ti ti L d 12L d 12thth F b 2010F b 2010MEPLAN Information meeting MEPLAN Information meeting –– London 12London 12thth February 2010February 2010

ForecastingForecasting transporttransport demanddemandForecastingForecasting transporttransport demanddemandon on newnew motorwaysmotorways in in NorthernNorthern ItalyItaly

Davide Fiorello Davide Fiorello -- TRT TRT TrasportiTrasporti e e TerritorioTerritorio srl, Milano, srl, Milano, ItalyItalypp yy

Forecasting transport demand on new motorways in Northern ItalyMEPLAN Information Meeting – London 12th February 2010 1

Content of the presentation

Introduction of TRTIntroduction of TRT

Motorways planning process in Italy y g y

Application of MEPLAN for motorways demand forecasts

Model setup

Calibration of the model

Conclusions

Forecasting transport demand on new motorways in Northern ItalyMEPLAN Information Meeting – London 12th February 2010 2

Introduction of TRT

TRT Trasporti e Territorio Srl is a consultancy specialised in transport economics and transport modelling based in Milan, Italy

TRT expertise on modelling includes micro-simulation, traditional four step models, land use and transport models, System Dynamics applied to , p , y y pptransport.

TRT has worked with Meplan since early 1990s, with several applications both at the national level and at the international level (STREAMS, SCENES).

Forecasting transport demand on new motorways in Northern ItalyMEPLAN Information Meeting – London 12th February 2010 3

Motorways planning process in Italy - 1

The need for new motorways is usually born in the business sector (e.g. Chamber of Commerce) complaining about congestion

A group of interest (gathering together private subjects and local public A group of interest (gathering together private subjects and local public authorities) starts the process.

First step is preparing a feasibility study for a project financing scheme: identify alternatives, estimate potential demand and costs, contact the bank sector,…

If the project seems feasible it is proposed to national road authority (ANAS) If the project seems feasible it is proposed to national road authority (ANAS) or to regional authority (for local infrastructures)

Forecasting transport demand on new motorways in Northern ItalyMEPLAN Information Meeting – London 12th February 2010 4

Motorways planning process in Italy - 2

ANAS (or the regional authority) decides whether the proposed project is of public interest or not

If public interest is identified a public tender is prepared where a promoter is hchosen

The requirements specified in the tender can change case by case The requirements specified in the tender can change case by case. Sometimes a project is required, sometimes the feasibility project is taken and participants are asked to define tolls, public contribution requested, etc.

Forecasting transport demand on new motorways in Northern ItalyMEPLAN Information Meeting – London 12th February 2010 5

Motorways planning process in Italy - 3

The winner of the tender becomes the official promoter and is in charge to The winner of the tender becomes the official promoter and is in charge to prepare the final project for the infrastructure

The final project specifies the exact route, the number to toll-booth, ancillary works needed (e.g. connections to the road network)

The final project is the basis for a new public tender for the construction and operation phaseoperation phase.

The tender is based on elements like total costs, amount of public funds required, tolls level, duration of the concession.

Forecasting transport demand on new motorways in Northern ItalyMEPLAN Information Meeting – London 12th February 2010 6

Applications of MEPLAN for motorways demand forecasts - 1

TRT has made a significant number of MEPLAN applications to support all phases of the planning process for new motorways in Northern Italy.

MEPLAN is used as an assignment model to simulate inter-urban road demand. demand.

Objectives:forecasting demand on new infrastructures- forecasting demand on new infrastructures

- forecasting toll revenues (testing alternative tolling schemes/toll levels)- analysing the impact of alternative roads- analysing the impact of alternative paths for the new infrastructureanalysing the impact of alternative paths for the new infrastructure- analysing the impact of toll-booths (where, how many)

Client is usually the same for a given infrastructure: the group of interest Client is usually the same for a given infrastructure: the group of interest proposing the infrastructures, later promoter, eventually in charge for building and operating the motorway

Forecasting transport demand on new motorways in Northern ItalyMEPLAN Information Meeting – London 12th February 2010 7

Applications of MEPLAN for motorways demand forecasts - 2

Autostrade esistentiAutostrade futureStrade a doppia carreggiataattuali e futureViabilità principaleViabilità secondaria

Forecasting transport demand on new motorways in Northern ItalyMEPLAN Information Meeting – London 12th February 2010 8

Applications of MEPLAN for motorways demand forecasts - 3

Each application is an independent model built on:- common zoning system (nearly 500 zones) and network co o o g sys e ( ea y 500 o es) a d e o- common base O/D matrix - common model elements (modes, parameters, etc.)

Portions of zones/network and matrices are cut out for specific applications

Calibration is always made for separate portions, a single model including the whole study area has never been attempted so far

Forecasting transport demand on new motorways in Northern ItalyMEPLAN Information Meeting – London 12th February 2010 9

Model setup - 1

The zoning system is based on administrative boundaries of municipalities. Traffic within zones is not modelled.

The network is partially based on road hierarchy (motorways, state roads, regional roads are all modelled) regional roads are all modelled)

Since population and activities are highly scattered in the area, several local p p g yminor roads are also modelled to provide realistic paths

Forecasting transport demand on new motorways in Northern ItalyMEPLAN Information Meeting – London 12th February 2010 10

Model setup - 2

BB

LEGENDAConfine di zona

AutostradeBergamoBergamo Autostrade

Strade ordinarie

Aree Urbane

BresciaBrescia

MilanoMilano

TreviglioTreviglio

Forecasting transport demand on new motorways in Northern ItalyMEPLAN Information Meeting – London 12th February 2010 11

Model setup - 3

Basically Flows are “passengers” and “freight”, but further segmentation is often used for specific purposes (e g short distance vs long distance) often used for specific purposes (e.g. short distance vs. long distance)

Flows are directly associated to User Modes “Car” and “Truck” y

Each User Mode is composed of just one Network Mode

Working day morning peak time (8.00 – 9.00) is simulated

Forecasting transport demand on new motorways in Northern ItalyMEPLAN Information Meeting – London 12th February 2010 12

Model setup - 4

Exogenous O/D matrices are the key model input

Actual O/D matrices in the area are basically unknown, especially for freight.

For passengers, a large survey was carried out in Lombardy in 2001, but data cannot be used as such in the model for at least three reasons:- data has become outdated - data has become outdated - for many O/D pairs travel time is long enough to produce an overestimation of link loads inthe simulated period with a static assignment some local trips (though inter regional) do not load the modelled network - some local trips (though inter-regional) do not load the modelled network

Model matrices are estimated on traffic counts using an external procedure of g pentropy maximisation fed with TAP.DAT output (minimum path for each O/D pair)

Forecasting transport demand on new motorways in Northern ItalyMEPLAN Information Meeting – London 12th February 2010 13

Model setup - 5

Other relevant input for the model:- Characteristics of the links (capacity and free-flow speed) - Cost functions- Value of travel time

Characteristics of the links are estimated according to road hierarchy and field surveys. Given the level of detail of the model characteristics are quite approximated.

Cost functions include perceived cost for passengers and all variable costs for Cost functions include perceived cost for passengers and all variable costs for freight

Value of time comes from literature and from past SP surveys in the area (indicatively: 10 euro/h for car and 16 euro/h for trucks)

Forecasting transport demand on new motorways in Northern ItalyMEPLAN Information Meeting – London 12th February 2010 14

Model calibration

Model calibration includes the following steps:

a) Check of network connectivity;b) Check of minimum paths with unloaded network (realistic paths, correct) (

costs and times)c) First passenger matrix estimation based on census datad) Fi t f i ht t i ti ti b d it ti l h d) First freight matrix estimation based on a gravitational approach e) Matrices correction based on traffic counts and minimum paths f) Assignment of first matrices f) Assignment of first matrices g) Calibration of distribution parameter of stochastic path choice algorithm h) New matrix estimation based on minimum paths with a loaded networki) Repeat steps g) and h) if needed.

Forecasting transport demand on new motorways in Northern ItalyMEPLAN Information Meeting – London 12th February 2010 15

Conclusions

MEPLAN proved to be a useful tool for these applications and all main MEPLAN proved to be a useful tool for these applications and all main questions asked by clients could be answered

Flexibility in the definition of demand segments and link types with dedicated parameters is very useful

Path choice algorithm is sophisticated (stochastic assignment, all modes assigned at once) but at the same time convergence is fast achieved assigned at once) but at the same time convergence is fast achieved

Nevertheless, with some additional features MEPLAN could be more user-friendly and competitive for these applications

Forecasting transport demand on new motorways in Northern ItalyMEPLAN Information Meeting – London 12th February 2010 16

Thanks for your attentionThanks for your attention

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