Forecasting Future DisruptionsStrategic Change Is Inevitable

Prof. Bill Halal

2015

What are the key forecasts to 2030for emerging technologies, social trends, and wild

cards…

What are the possible impacts?

Sound strategic planning is rarely practiced in most organizations today, and at a critical time when the world

is changing dramatically, it has never been more necessary.

Exceptions

Some corporations and governments do a fine job scanning the horizon for disruptive trends in technology, markets, and society, and devising strategies to adapt, or

even use the disruptive forces to their advantage.

Most people are preoccupied with their current work and have difficulty finding time for strategic thinking.

Climate Change…

Today, the challenges ahead are so unprecedented and so dangerous that they

cannot be ignored.

Tipping point of 400 ppm (parts per million) of Carbon Dioxide CO2

in the atmosphere in 2014

Climate Change…

Today, the challenges ahead are so unprecedented and so dangerous that they

cannot be ignored.

Tipping point of 400 ppm (parts per million) of Carbon Dioxide CO2

in the atmosphere in 2014

Can we

guide the forces of change or will they

force us into directions we may not like?

This article aims to help readers consider the challenges posed by the technology

revolution, globalization, and social changes, and to explore how to get your organization

on the right side of history

Key findings from…

Research method

TechCast is a Project…

The results show that technological and social advances, their adoption patterns, and impacts follow well-defined cycles that can be forecast

rather accurately

Collective intelligence to pool the knowledge of 130 high-

techCEOs, scientists, engineers,

academics, consultants, futurists, and other experts

worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in a

comprehensive range of fields.

1. The Technology Revolution

Adoption level:Some think of it as the

emergence of the technological singularity.

Futurist Ray Kurzweil defines theSingularity as

"a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep,

that human life will be irreversibly transformed"

Table 1 - Emerging Technologies Forecasts

Each technology will reach its next adoption level

The potential global market size in US$ at

saturation

The confidence level of the experts for each

forecast

Table 2 - Emerging Technologies Forecasts

Table 3 - Emerging Technologies Forecasts

…