Forecast of container traffic at major

ports in India

Objective

The objective of this study is to conduct a

study on container traffic of major ports of India

and forecasting demand and supply of

containers in same context.

Research methodology

• Defining the objective.

• Understanding requirements according to

scope and significance.

• Selection of forecasting model linear

regression model.

• Identification of sources and references of

secondary data.

Cont…..

• Validating data, testing quality of data.

• Applying linear regression model on validated

data.

• Analysis for forecasting data for

recommendations.

Scope of the study

• With unpredictability of Global commerce

pattern, it becomes hard to forecast actual

demand-supply scenario of container

economic zone.

• Cyclic up and down movement of container

shipping cycle also contributes in errors in

forecasted data.

Containerization

• Containerization is the use of containers to

unitize product and cargo for transportation,

supply and storage.

• Containerization is a system of intermodal

transport by different modes of transport like

sea, roads etc.

History

• Containerisation has its origins in the beginning of coal mining areas in England from the late 18th century.

• Initially it was simple rectangular timber box.

• In beginning of 1900s saw adoption of closed container boxes designed for movement between road and rail. .

• originally used for moving coal on and off barges.

History

• Finally in 1956 containers introduced to the

world trade.

• Advanced container shipping industry has

celebrated its 50th anniversary in 2006.

Almost from very first voyage.

• Liverpool and Manchester Railways in United

Kingdom were one of these who used to move

containers.

Types of containers

• Dry Storage Containers

• Flat Rack Containers

• Open Top Containers

• Tunnel Containers

• Open Side Storage Containers

• Double Doors Containers

Cont….

• Refrigerated ISO containers

• Thermal Containers

• Tanks

• Cargo storage Roll Container

• Half Height Containers

• Car Carriers

Cont…

• Drums

• Special Purpose Containers

• Intermediate Bulk Shift Containers

Container traffic at major ports

India has 13 major ports and 187 non-major

ports. Of non-major ports, only about 48 are

operational; while rests are fishing harbors.

Ports provide an interface between sea

transport and land transport.

Containerisation traffic mostly belongs to only

major ports. Only select non-major ports like

Pipavav Port, Mundra Port etc. cater to

containerized traffic.

2012-2013 2011-2012 2010-2011 2009-2010 2008-2009

2007-2008 2006-2007 2005-2006 2004-2005

2003-2004

KOLKATA 463 412 377

378

302

297

239

203

159

106

HADIA 137 140 149

124

127

128

110 110 128

137

PARADIP 13 8 4

4

2 4

2 3

2

4

VISAKHAPATNAM 248 224 145

98 86

71

56

47

45

20

CHENNAI

1539 1558 1524

1216 1143

1128

886

735 617

539

TUTICORIN 470 477 468

440

439

450

377

321

307

254

COCHIN 326 336 312

290

261

254

227

203

185

170

NEW

MANGALORE

48 45 40

3

29

21

17

10

9

7

MORMUGAO 20 22 18

17

14

14

13

9

10

10

MUMBAI 58 58 72

58

92

118

138

159

219

197

JNPT

4259 4231 4270

4062

3952

4060

3298

2667

2371

2269

KANDLA 118 168 160

147

138 167

178 148

181

170

TOTAL

7699 7679 7539

6865

6585

6712

5541 4744 4233

3900

Growth of containers trade Year Demand Supply

2000 10.7 7.8

2001 2.4 8.5

2002 10.5 8.0

2003 11.6 8.0

2004 13.4 8.0

2005 10.6 10.5

2006 11.2 13.6

2007 11.4 11.8

2008 4.2 10.8

2009 -9.0 4.9

2010 4.8 8.3

2011 7.1 6.7

2012 3.3 5.2

2013 5.0 6.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Demand

Supply

YEAR TOTAL CARGO HANDLED AT INDIAN PORTS FROM 2003 TO 2013 GDP GROWTH RATE

Y (MMT) X (%)

2003 7.445

8.3

2004 7.468

6.2

2005 7.699

8.4

2006 7.679

9.2

2007 7.539

9

2008 6.865

7.4

2009 6.585

7.4

2010 6.712

10.1

2011 5.541

6.8

2012 4.744

6.5

2013 4.233

4.4

Container traffic forecasting

Y = 1.06422 – 0.14043X

a = 1.06422

b = 0.14043

Considering GDP to increase by 1%

every year for next 3 years.

YEAR TOTAL CARGO HANDLED AT INDIAN PORTS FROM 2014 TO 2016 GDP GROWTH RATE

Y (MMT) X (%)

2014

7.445

4.9

2015

7.662

5.9

2016

7.775

6.9

Conclusion

Container economic zone forecast can give idea on

grown or downfall of demand and supply, thus

benefiting organizations and stakeholders of

container commerce, by mitigating risks of shipping

cycle trend. Analysis of economic zone forecast of

containers shows current movement of shipping

cycle. Thus, such analysis will provide information

such as additional capacities are required.