1FOUR - MONTH MOVING AVERAGE FORECASTEXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTSMOOTHING FACTOR =0.30PeriodMonthSalesForecastPeriodMonthSalesForecast1January12121January12121212.002February13212February13211212.003March12783March12781244.704April13414April13411254.695May12571288.005May12571280.586June12871299.256June12871273.517July11891290.757July11891277.568August11111268.508August11111250.999September11451211.009September11451208.9910October11501183.0010October11501189.7911November12981148.7511November12981177.8612December13311176.0012December13311213.9013January1231.0013January1249.03

2REGRESSION MODEL FORECASTn =12MonthPeriod (X)Sales (Y)XYX^2Xbar =6.5January112121212.001February213212642.004Ybar =1243.33March312783834.009April413415364.0016b =-4.5804195804May512576285.0025June612877722.0036a =1273.1060606061July711898323.0049August811118888.0064September9114510305.0081Therefore, the linear trend line is :Y = 1273.11 - 4.58XOctober10115011500.00100November11129814278.00121Forecast for Period 13 =1273.11 - 4.58 (13) =1213.56December12133115972.00144Total781492096325650

3THREE - MONTH MOVING AVERAGE FORECASTEXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTSMOOTHING FACTOR =0.20PeriodMonthSalesForecastPeriodMonthSalesForecast1January3281January328328.002February3372February337328.003March3413March341329.804April367335.334April367332.045May385348.335May385339.036June403364.336June403348.237July389385.007July389359.188August376392.338August376365.149September428389.339September428367.3210October305397.6710October305379.4511November278369.6711November278364.5612December450337.0012December450347.2513January344.3313January367.80

4REGRESSION MODEL FORECASTn =12MonthPeriod (X)Sales (Y)XYX^2Xbar =6.5January1328328.001February2337674.004Ybar =365.58March33411023.009April43671468.0016b =2.8776223776May53851925.0025June64032418.0036a =346.8787878788July73892723.0049August83763008.0064September94283852.0081Therefore, the linear trend line is :Y = 346.88 + 2.88 XOctober103053050.00100November112783058.00121Forecast for Period 13 =346.88 + 2.88 (13) =384.29December124505400.00144Total78438728927650

7FOUR - MONTH MOVING AVERAGE FORECASTEXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING FORECASTSMOOTHING FACTOR =0.30PeriodMonthSales (D)Forecast (F)Error (D-F)|D-F|(D-F)^2PeriodMonthSales (D)Forecast (F)Error (D-F)|D-F|(D-F)^21January12121January12121212.002February13212February13211212.003March12781March12781244.7033.3033.301108.894April13412April13411254.6986.3186.317449.421May12571288.00-31.0031961.003May12571280.58-23.5823.58556.162June12871299.25-12.2512.25150.064June12871273.5113.4913.49182.033July11891290.75-101.75101.7510353.065July11891277.56-88.5688.567842.114August11111268.50-157.50157.524806.256August11111250.99-139.99139.9919596.915September11451211.00-66.00664356.007September11451208.99-63.9963.994095.016October11501183.00-33.00331089.008October11501189.79-39.7939.791583.617November12981148.75149.25149.2522275.569November12981177.86120.14120.1414434.538December13311176.00155.0015524025.0010December13311213.90117.10117.1013712.5613January1231.0013January1249.03Total369768705.7588015.9375Total5512372.57726.2670561.23n =8n =10MSE =(Summation of (D-F)^2 )/n = 88015.94/8 =11001.9921875MSE =(Summation of (D-F)^2 )/n = 70561.23/8 =7056.1225578426MAD =(Summation of |D-F| )/n = 705.75/8 =88.21875MAD =(Summation of |D-F| )/n = 726.26/10 =72.6260844286MAPE =(Summation of |D-F| )/36 = 705.75/9768=7.23%MAPE =(Summation of |D-F| )/36 = 726.26/12372.57 =5.87%