Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit SomaliaPost Gu 201117th August 2011CentralEUROPEAN COMMISSIONSwiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDCInformation for Better Livelihoods

Normal access in Hawd and Addun LHZs;

Partial access in Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Agro-pastoral LHZs;

Local authority, enumerator, Key informants with FSNAU /WFP TeleconferencingGu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations

Three Pastoral Livelihoods: Hawd, Addun, Coastal Deeh

Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock and livestock products, bush product and kinship support

Primary sources of food of poor: purchase and food aid

Primary livelihood asset of poor: camel, sheep/goat

Agropastoral livelihood: Cowpea Agro pastoral - are more livestock rather than crop-reliant.

Income: sale of livestock, livestock products and bush product sales

Main sources of food: own production (cowpea) and purchases Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

Climate

Overall Statement: Normal rains in Coastal Deeh and larger parts of Cowpea belt (pockets in Cowpea belt received below normal rains); below normal rains in Hawd and Addun with pockets receiving average rains.

Start of Season: Gu rains started 2 to 3 weeks late (April 26th). Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Started in April 26th and ended by end of 2nd Dekad of May. Rainfall performance was normal in Coastal Deeh and most parts in Cowpea Belt. However, Hawd and Addun received below normal precipitation.Rains have started 2-3 weeks later than usual and ended about 2 weeks earlier. Gu 2011 Seasonal PerformanceGu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean)

ClimateVegetation ConditionsTrends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

Civil Security SituationResource-based conflicts in rural settlements of Gelinsor and Adado areas between opposing clans;High political confrontation among opposing sides over parts in Galgadud region;Resource-based tensions and livestock rustling among clans over the area centered between Harardere and Hobyo districts; Marine piracy attacks with successful hijackings of cargo vessels;

Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: Human death and causalities of active workforce and displacementHigh impact and long term restrictions on population movement and pastoral access to key grazing areasSource: FSNAU & Protection ClusterCivil Insecurity

AgricultureGu 2011 Crop Production Estimates Cowpea Production in Gu 2010: Galgadud 750MT; Mudug 305MT

RegionDistrictGu 11 production in MTCowpeaSorghumMaizeGalgadudElbur000GalgadudElder000MudugHarardere11500MudugHobyo000TotalTotal11500

Gu 2011 Assessment PhotosAgriculture

AgricultureGu 2011 Local CerealFlow

Markets

Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade Cowpea and CoastalRegional Trend in Cereal Prices(Rice)

- Increasing TrendRegional Trends in Terms of trade: Local quality goat/cereal

(Goat/Rice)

- Declining Trend

Regional Trend in Cereal Prices(Sorghum)

-Increasing TrendRegional Trends in Terms of trade: Local quality goat/cereal

(Goat/Sorghum)

- Declining TrendMarket Regional Trends in Cereal Prices & Terms of Trade Cowpea Belt and Coastal Deeh

Market Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices - Cowpea and CoastalRegional Trends: Local Quality Goat price

- Declining Trend(seasonal)

Normal to near normal rainfall performance in Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Belt and below normal rains in Hawd and Addun LHZs;

Improved rangeland conditions in Coastal Deeh and most parts in Cowpea Belt.

Below average rangeland and water conditions in parts of Hawd and Addun.

Normal livestock body conditions for goat and sheep across the livelihoods.

Below normal livestock body conditions for camel and cattle in Coastal, Cowpea and Addun.

Livestock

Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, Gu 2011

Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

RegionConception (Gu 2011) Calving/kidding (Gu 2011) Milk production (Gu 2011) Expected calving/ kidding Jul-Dec. 2011Trends in Herd Size (June 11) LivelihoodsLivestock species

Galgaduud & South Mudug

Camel: Low to none

Cattle: None

Goat/sheep: Low to mediumCowpea & Coastal:

Camel: Low to none

Cattle: None

Goat/sheep: None

Hawd/Addun:Camel :Hawd-Medium Addun - Low

Sheep/goats: LowCowpea and coastal:

Camel Below Average

Hawd and Addun: Below Average (all species)Cowpea belt and Coastal :

Camel - LowCattle - NoneGoat/sheep - Low to Medium

Hawd and Addun:Camel -None

Goat/sheep- Low Addun PastoralCamel: Increased (below BL)Shoats: Decreased (below BL) Hawd PastoralCamel: Increased (below BL)Goats: Decreased (below BL)Cowpea BeltCamel: Decreased (below BL)

Cattle: Decreased (below BL)

Sheep/goats: Decreased (below BL)

Coastal DeehCattle: InsignificantGoat/sheep: Decreased (below BL)

LivestockRegional Trends in Cereal Prices and ToT- Hawd and AddunRegional Trend in Rice Prices

- Trend increasingRegional Trends in Terms of trade: Local quality goat/cereal

(Goat/Rice)

- Trend is declining

LivestockGu 2011 Assessment Photos

Water trucking. Dhabad, Abudwak, Jul. 11, Average camel. Arfuda Galkacyo, Mudug, Jul. 11, Livestock watering. Hadile, Hobyo, Mudug, Jul. 11, Average goat body condition browsing. Beer Abdi Farah, Dhusamareb, Galgadud, Jul.11

Trends in Imported Commodity PricesMarketsIncrease in Imported Commodity Prices (last six months)Factors Affecting Commercial Import Prices: Increased global prices Declined local cereal supply on the markets due to low production in southern regions Limited humanitarian food distributions

NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings

RegionNutrition Surveys (July 2011)Rapid MUAC Screening (% 6.2%CMR:1.85/10,000/day U5MR:6.57/10,000/day.Hawd:

CENTRALNutrition Situation EstimatesNutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011Aggravating factors :AWD and cholera outbreak in Galgadud and Mudug regionsInsecurity & displacements with limited interventions in Addun, Cowpea Belt & Coastal Deeh Limited milk availability in Addun, Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Belt LZ High morbidity and poor health seeking behavior, sub-optimal child feeding, poor access to safe water and health care services across all the livelihoods

IDPSPoor sheltersHigh morbidity in Dusamareb IDPs.

Mitigating factors :Increased access to milk and milk products and stable ToT - after some Gu 11 rains in parts of the HawdAccess to humanitarian assistance (health, nutrition, WASH) in the Hawd and active social support)

Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation (2008-2010)

Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep)

Urban Population: Galgadud 100%P in HE; 25%M in AFLC; Mudug: 100%P in HE; 25%M in AFLCRural population:Coastal Deeh (100% of population in HE); Cowpea Belt (100% of P- HE; 100% M- AFLC); Addun (50% of the P-HE; 50% of P-AFLC)

Acute Malnutrition: Dhusamareb IDP Very Critical; Coastal Deeh Livelihood Zone deteriorated from Critical to Very Critical while Cowpea sustained Critical levels with potential to deteriorate Food Access: Populations in HE (severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcalppp day) while those in AFLC (lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset Stripping)Water Access: Populations in HE (< 7.5 litres ppp day - human usage only); in AFLC (7.5-15 litres ppp day, accessed via asset stripping)Destitution/Displacement: Populations in HE (concentrated; increasing); in AFLC (emerging; diffuse)Coping: Populations in HE (distress strategies; CSI significantly > than reference); in AFLC (crisis strategies; CSI > than reference; increasingLivelihood Assets: Populations in HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); in AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access)

CENTRALSummary: Progression of Rural IPC SituationMAP 2: IPC, Gu 2011 MAP 1: IPC April 2011

Below normal Gu 2011 rains in parts of Hawd and Addun leading to poor pasture and water availabilityPoor milk production /availability in most livelihoods due to low calving/kiddingHigh livestock asset losses in Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Belt due to the successive droughts (2008-2011)Increases in local (red sorghum) and imported (rice) cereal pricesCrop failure in Cowpea Belt due to the long dry spell, coupled with pests and diseasesSignificant decline (57%) in ToT between goat and red sorghum (from 95 kg in June 10 to 41 kg in Jun 11)High indebtedness (> 200 USD) accrued during previous droughts to meet water and food needs Reduced fishing activities due to piracy along the coastlineIncreased pastoral destitution (Coastal Deeh)Increased inter-clan resource based conflicts (rangelands)Limited humanitarian space (Harardheere, Eldheer and Elbuur districts)Increased civil insecurity among opposing groups affecting trade and pastoral mobility

CENTRAL Main Contributing Factors of Rural IPC Situation

CENTRAL Rural Population in Crisis by livelihoods

Affected Regions and Livelihood ZonePopulation of Affected Livelihood ZonesDeyr 2010/11 Gu 2011Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)Humanitarian Emergency (HE)Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)Humanitarian Emergency (HE)GalgaduudAddun pastoral123,21848,00017,00019,00017,000Central Agro-Past60,94434,00015,00035,00016,000Ciid (Hawd) Pastoral41,0308,0003,00011,0000Coastal Deeh: sheep 21,6714,0004,00002,000Southern Inland Past7,4532,0001,0003,0002,000Destitute pastoralists16,764018,000028,000SUB-TOTAL271,08096,00058,00068,00065,000South MudugAddun pastoral41,82321,0007,0008,0004,000Central Agro-Past31,75017,0008,00013,0008,000Coastal Deeh: sheep 29,2575,0006,00001,000Hawd Pastoral16,2432,0001,00010,0000Destitute pastoralists12,38207,000026,000Sub-Total131,45545,00029,00031,00039,000GRAND TOTAL402,535141,00087,00099,000104,000TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE228,000203,000

CENTRAL Rural Population in Crisis by District

Affected Regions and DistrictUNDP 2005 Rural PopulationDeyr 2010/11Gu 2011Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)Humanitarian Emergency (HE)Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)Humanitarian Emergency (HE)GalgaduudCabudwaaq32,6548,0005,0008,0005,000Cadaado36,3049,0007,0008,0006,000Ceel Buur66,27427,00015,00018,00015,000Ceel Dheer61,40726,00016,00024,00024,000Dhuusamarreeb74,44126,00015,00010,00015,000SUB-TOTAL271,08096,00058,00068,00065,000South MudugGaalkacyo24,8606,0004,0007,0003,000Hobyo54,43819,00013,00010,00018,000Xarardheere52,15720,00012,00014,00018,000SUB-TOTAL131,45545,00029,00031,00039,000GRAND TOTAL402,535141,00087,00099,000104,000TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE228,000203,000

CENTRALUrban Population in Crisis

DistrictUNDP 2005 Total PopulationUNDP 2005 Urban PopulationDeyr 2010/11Gu 2011Humanitarian Emergency (HE)Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban populationAcute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)Humanitarian Emergency (HE)Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban populationAcute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)South MudugGaalkacyo137,66754,80019,000035021,00038Hobyo67,24912,8113,0001,0003104,00031Xarardheere65,54313,3864,0001,0003705,00037Sub-Total270,45980,99726,0002,00034030,00037GalgaduudCabudwaaq41,0678,41303,000361,0003,00048Cadaado45,6309,32603,0003203,00032Ceel Buur79,09212,81804,0003104,00031Ceel Dheer73,00811,60104,0003404,00034Dhuusamarreeb91,26016,81908,000482,0008,00059Sub-Total330,05758,977022,000373,00022,00042Grand Total600,516139,97450,0003655,00039

*********************