Food Security in AsiaFood Security in Asia

For the students of International School of Manila

April 2011

1. What we hear about it

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2. Why it matters

3. What we have been doing

4. What needs to be done

February 2011“World food prices surged to a new historic peak in January, for the seventh consecutive month” (FAO)“Global food prices are rising to dangerous levels” (World Bank)

Higher food prices

Food security: what we hear about it 3

What drives food price rise

• Crop failures• Natural disasters• High fuel prices• Weak US$

• Crop failures• Natural disasters• High fuel prices• Weak US$

• Increasing demand• Low grain stock• Stagnating yield growth• Less water and land• Bio-fuel competition

• Increasing demand• Low grain stock• Stagnating yield growth• Less water and land• Bio-fuel competition

Food security: what we hear about it

Cyclical factors(It just happens..)Cyclical factors(It just happens..)

Structural factors(How the world is made)Structural factors(How the world is made)

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Source: IFPRI, 2001

Source: FAO, ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/011/i0765e/i0765e08.pdf

Food security: what we hear about it

Increasing demand for food: 70% more food needed to feed population - 6.7 billion now to 9 billion in 2050 (FAO)Decreasing farm land

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Emerging water crisis:Asia has 50% of world’s population but only 30% of world’s fresh waterSevere shortage in 40% of developing Asia by 2030Climate change affects water availability (IWMI)

Food security: what we hear about it

Source: UN Environment Programhttp://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/

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Climate change: Decline in the global crop production by as much as 15% of rain-fed maize, 20% of irrigated wheat, and 16% of irrigated rice (IFPRI)

Biofuel: 90% increase in demand for transport fuel, 2000-2050. Increasing demand for biofuel (IIASA).

Food security: what we hear about it

Source: IFPRI

Irrigated rice production in 2050

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Food security: what we hear about it

Disasters in Asia:Between 1975 and 2006, Asia had 89% of disaster-affected people, 57% of fatalities, and 44% of economic damages (Sanker, et al)Climate change increases frequency and intensity of disasters (IPCC)

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Food Security: Why it matters

Vulnerable food supply systems

Leads to supply shortage Increases food prices

Market volatility Leads to panic and hording Food disappears from shops Leads to social instability

Food inflation Affects economic growth Hurts poor people and

increase poverty

Photos fom “Hungry Planet” by Peter Menzel

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Food Security: Why it matters

Food security and poverty

Despite continuing fight against poverty, Asia is still home to the largest number of poor

Higher food prices hurt poor people most

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Hungry people in the world (FAO, 2010)

Food Security: Why it matters

Volatility of food grains market

Accurate information about food not available Free and open trade remains a goal, not a practice Lack of information causes hording and panic Speculation fans volatility, and is hard to regulate Abnormal spikes in food prices benefit nobody

Export price of Thai white rice, 5% brokenSource: IRRI

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Food Security: Why it matters

Problems with the existing food supply systems

R&D: Not enough support to research and technology development

Small farmers who dominate Asia’s agriculture lack access to finance, infrastructure, and technology

More investment is needed in agriculture but funding is not enough

Efficient value chain is a key to deliver more food to market, but many farmers remain left

Risk management: Agriculture is a risky business, and we have not found the way to manage risks well

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Food Security: What we have done to date

Green RevolutionHow it started

Widespread hunger and poverty in Asia in mid 1960s.

The Rockefeller and Ford foundations initiated. IRRI and CIMMYT to develop new rice and wheat

variety Expanded use of fertilizer and Irrigation

What did it do

More than double cereal production in Asia (1970-95).

No famine despite population increase by 60%. Poverty declined from 3 out of 5 to less than 1 in 5.

But some criticize

Environmental degradation, and increased inequality.

Agriculture becomes more input-reliant, particularly to fertilizer and energy.

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Vulnerable food supply systems

Market volatility

Food inflation

Food security challenges today are more complex

Food Security: What we have done to date 14

What we did Good news Bad news

Safety net New and more promising approaches

Many poor people remain vulnerable

Promotion of trade Stronger interest and political will

Politics prevails in the end of the day

Agronomic innovation

New and coordinated approach and funding

Funding shortageWeak link to small farmers

Irrigation development

Expanded coverage of irrigation with production growth

High level of water inefficiencyLack of O&M funding

Value chain development

Active private sector engagement

Small and poor famers left out

Climate change adaptation

Increasing knowledge, tools and funding support

More knowledge and tools needed

Food Security: What needs to be done 15

Improve safety net for the poor and vulnerable against shocks

Enhance agriculture and food trade Make technologies available to the poor Produce more food with less water Invest in rural infrastructure Strengthen value chain for the poor Develop tools and business to manage risks

Food Security: What needs to be done

More debate needed on:

Does the world need the second Green Revolution or not?Do we support genetically modified crops or not?Food or biofuel?Should small farmers be protected or should more of them be sent to non agriculture?Food self-sufficiency or free trade?Increased partnership with private sector – can it be supportive of the poor?

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Thank you for listening.

Katsuji MatsunamiAsian Development Bankkmatsunami@adb.org

Views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of the Asian Development Bank.