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Food Choice in America

Why Americans Make the Food Choices they Do

Amanda Archibald, R.D.Field to Plate

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THE UNITED “STATE” OF AMERICA

A socio-economic snapshot

Worlds of hurt – back in 2008

• > 31.5 million Americans received food stamp benefits in September 08, the highest on record, surpassing an old record of 27.4 million in 1994

• 1/6th of the population in West Virginia receives food stamp assistance

• House prices down 29%

• Consumer debt rose from an average of 80% disposable income to 129% in 2007

• For 20% of the nation’s elderly, social security is their sole source of retirement

• For the first time, Social Security recipients are expected to receive a zero percent cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in 2010, with projections of no or low COLAs through 2012.

• Source: 2008 Editorial: The New York Times, Washington Post, Economic Policy Institute, Kaiser Family Foundation

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America hurts

We lost $2 trillion in pension wealth

At the end of 2007, @ 25% of workers between 56-65 held > 90% of their 401 K in stock

more than 2 in 5 held > 70% BUT: in 2008, accounts worth less than

$10K grew > 40% as workers continued to make contributions

To shore up profits and reduce spending, companies are reducing employer matching for 401Ks

And this was before GM announced its bankruptcy filing. In June 2009: GM pension underfunded by $20B

Source: The Washington Post /USA Today– Jan & May 2009/ Employee Benefit Research Institute

04/10/2023 Employee Benefit Research Institute: March 2010

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Trends in savings and investments

• The percentage of workers who have virtually no money in savings and investments has increased over the past year

• 54 percent report that the total value of their household’s savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000

• More than one-quarter (27 percent) have less than $1,000 in assets.

A brief history of finance

• Deregulation enabled a torrent of new financial products into market enabling large scale borrowing

• Automated underwriting enabled rapid screening for loans

• Securitization reduced risk

• Policymakers loved this as it “helped “Americans own their own homes”

• By 2007 60% did

Deregulation

Source: The Economist April 3, 2010

What this looks like on paper

Source: download from xls data set at : http://www.irrationalexuberance.com/index.htm/Robert J Schiller

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20200

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04/10/2023 8

Cheap credit changed the landscape

Then• Millions flocked to exurbs (exurbia)

to big houses &big lots• Flight to the south and southwest

(now largest areas of default/unemployment and counter migration

• Longer commutes– = stress/convenience and driving the

consumption bubble

Now• People stuck in exurbia with

houses they can’t sell, often without jobs and praying the price of gas won’t rise – which it is…

• Surrounded by empty lots, vacant buildings/malls and foreclosed homes

Source: Field to Plate

What this looks like on the ground

• 25% of mortgage borrowers had mortgage balances as of late 2009 exceeding the value of their homes. Average amt: $70.7K

• House prices down 29%

• Median existing home price = $165,100 (1.8% decline over Feb 2009)

• 80% of delinquencies from PRIME rate mortgages versus 10% sub-prime

ARM resets:• 2009 - 53K• 2010 - 272K• 2011 - 466 K

HH wealth shrunk by $12 Trillion or 18% since 2007. Negative home equity thru 2015

Housing in perspective (FNCE 2007)

State2000 2003 2005

% CHANGE 00-05

United States 244 304 386 58.1

California 284 407 618 117.0

District of Columbia 266 401 610 129.0

Florida 213 290 445 108.0

Illinois 251 302 360 43.0

Pennsylvania 246 304 383 56.0

Texas 166 187 205 23.0

Utah 241 257 307 27.0

Wisconsin 233 275 323 38.6

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise OversightIndex 1980, 1st quarter = 100

Change in single home price indices by select states

Exodus

Gainers

Top Five Bottom Five

North Dakota - 1.8%

Georgia - 7.4%

Alaska – 0.6%

Florida - 7.8%

South Dakota – -1.4%

Michigan - 9.4%

Texas - - 1.5% Nevada - 9.8%

Oklahoma - -1.5%

Arizona - 9.9%

Losers• Maricopa, AZ : 25% of homes =

foreclosure notices– Land-use regulation in

southern/sand states more permissive FL/NV/CA/AZ = the rush to the sun

– 4 of the 5 states with largest job losses were in the sunbelt

– According to Moody’s Economy.com, for the first time since WW II more people left FL than arrived

04/10/2023

A tale of two recessions

Source: Economic Policy Institute

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Rich and poor

Graphic Source: Pew Research Center: Social and Demographic Trends

2004

1992

1983

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000

Median Net Worth of Lower, Middle and Upper Income Families in 2008 dollars

LowerMiddleUpper

Dollars

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A history of income1970 -2008

Graphic Source: Pew Research Center

04/10/2023 15

04/10/2023 Economic Policy Institute 16

Bankruptcy and aging

Age group 1991 - % of all filers 2007 % of all filers % change

55-84 8.2% 22.3% 78%

65-84 2.1% 22.3% 150%

75-84 1.8% 5.0% 433%

“The data take on particular urgency in light of recent research suggesting a relationship between financial strain and health problems for older people, particularly indications that financial problems are linked with declining self-assessments of their health, diminishing ability to care for themselves and generalized demoralization”

Source: AARP Public Policy Institute: Generations of Struggle, June 08

Working for a lifetime

Source: Economic Policy Institute/Monique Morrissey, June 25, 2008

04/10/2023 19

Funding your medical future

A couple retiring at age 65 in 2010 will

need $250K to cover medical

expenses through end

of life

A rise of 4.2 % over 2009 and assumes

Medicare premiums, co-

pays & deductibles

and no employer-provided insurance

$250K Medical

Fund

USA Today/Fidelity Investments March 25, 2010

04/10/2023 Source: Economic Policy Institute/adapted

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A tale of 2 recessions

• Blue = 2001 Red = 2007

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What a 1% increase in unemployment means..

3-4% decline in state tax revenues

A 1% increase in Medicaid and CHIP enrollment

A 1.1% increase in the numbers of health uninsured

Source: Washington Post/NYT & KFF

Already under pressure from a decline in real estate taxes

04/10/2023 22

Health is a casualty on many fronts..

The Trend The Consequence• The number of workers

participating in part time work grew by @ 4 million in 2008

• How many part time jobs have health care?

Source: Epinet.org/Bureau of Labor Statistics

04/10/2023 Economic Policy Institute 23

Leave no job behind

• 81% of highest paid workers have sick leave

• 61% of private sector workers have some paid sick leave

• 21% of bottom 10% of wage scale have paid sick leave

• Many of lowest paid jobs are in retail, health care and food-service

• Diminished job security = tendency to show up for work when sick

The reality is right here….