Presented  by:        Geoffrey  Wiggin        Minister-­‐Counselor,  FAS/Tokyo    

•  Food  2040—Hypothesis,  ObjecHve,  Outcomes    

•  Technology  Convergence—Consumer  of  the  Future  

•  Vision  of  Future  State  Requirements  

•  The  Research  

•  Moving  Ahead/  Wrap-­‐Up  

Discussion  Guide  

Global  wealth  creaHon  will  drive  the  emergence  of  affluent  consumers  who  will  demand  func%onal  foods  that  align  with  their  health  and  wellness  lifestyle  strategies.    

Hypothesis  

Food  2040  will  provide  decision-­‐makers  a  catalyst  to  define  a  shared  understanding  of  the  infinite  opportuni%es  that  will  arise  in  the  food  system  due  to  the  convergence  of  mulHple  interacHng  factors.      

ObjecHve  

Food  2040  stakeholders  will  put  research  results  to  work  in  framing  and  acHvaHng  acHon  plans  that  incorporate  this  new  vision  and  will  begin  to  define  how  they  will    benefit  from  the  next  quantum  leap  in  food.  

Outcomes  

 •  Who  will  meet  the  needs  of  this  future  consumer  and  profit  from  new  opportuniHes?  

•  How  will  our  food  producHon  system  evolve  to  meet  these  needs?  

 •  How  should  our  global  regulatory  policy  systems  transform  to  meet  these  needs?  

Who  will  benefit  from  the  next  quantum  leap  in  food?  

Technology  Convergence—  Consumer  of  the  Future  

Consumer  Driven  

Next  GeneraHon  Biotechnology  

 

Cultured  Foods  

Nanotechnology  Nutrigenomics  

Technology  Convergence—  Consumer  of  the  Future  

Today    

Future    Commodity-­‐based  system    

 

Identity-preserved system

Vision  of  Future  State  Requirements  

Today    

Future    Few  large  commercial  

global  registrants  of  biotech  transgenic  events  

 

 

 

600+ firms seeking to register transgenic and novel technology events

Vision  of  Future  State  Requirements  

Today    

Future    Integrated medical, food and

genomics models that are infinite and evolve exponentially

Compartmentalized  nutriHon  and  wellness  model  

Vision  of  Future  State  Requirements  

Today    

Future    AnHquated  transportaHon  

systems  A highly sophisticated modern transportation and infrastructure system

Vision  of  Future  State  Requirements  

Today    

Future    Middle  class  development  

focused  on  caloric  increase  

Middle class with means to be increasingly discerning about food choices

Vision  of  Future  State  Requirements  

The  future  is  about  the  global  caloric  needs  required  to  feed  9  billion  people  and  planning  for  macro  protein  and  energy  demands  

The  more  compelling  opportunity  for  food  system  stakeholders  to  expand  margins  may  be  by  targeHng  exciHng  new  consumer-­‐driven  idenHty-­‐preserved  markets  

Vision  of  Future  State  Requirements  

Research  Process  and  Methodology  

•  Biotech  acceleraHon  •  Cheap  genomics  •  Specialty  GM  crops  •  Biosensors  •  High-­‐intensity  agriculture  •  AutomaHc  agriculture  •  Biopharming  

 

Food  and  Technology—Biotech  and  Agricultural  InnovaHon  

Research  Theme  1  

Consumer  Trends—Upper  and    Middle  Class  Asia  

 •  Middle  class  growth  •  UrbanizaHon  •  Gray  Asia    •  Changing  diets  •  Diseases  of  affluence  

Research  Theme  2  

CompeHHve  and  Policy/Regulatory  Landscape—Evolving  Issues  and  Standards  

Research  Theme  3  

•  Chinese  wages  rising  •  Regulatory  capacity  •  China  ascending  the  food  value  chain  •  CounterfeiHng,  adulteraHon,  and  

intellectual  property  •  Asian  credit  crises  •  Rising  transparency  •  Asian  freight  infrastructure  

•  Infrastructure  build-­‐out  •  Rising  volumes  •  Energy  costs  •  IdenHfy  preservaHon  and  traceability  •  Shiaing  product  mixes  •  Smart  packaging  

Agriculture  Food  DistribuHon  and  Packaging—TransportaHon  and  Infrastructure  

Research  Theme  4    

Environment  and  Resources—  Impacts  of  Global  Growth  

Research  Theme  5  

•  Water  scarcity  •  Soil  depleHon  •  Scarce  ferHlizer  •  China’s  shrinking  farmland  •  Global  fishery  depleHon  •  Food  insecurity  

Thank  You