FoE nov 2013

Seeing is believing The transformation of data into understanding through visualisation !Dr Will Stahl-Timmins Associate Research Fellow: Visualisation

EUROPEAN UNIONInvesting in Your FutureEuropean RegionalDevelopment Fund 2007-13


ECEHH - European Centre for Environment and Human Health

Information graphics - visual presentation of E&HH data and information

Seeing is Believing - investigating the effects of visual presentation


Information graphics

Seeing is Believing

ECEHH


Seeing is Believing

Inco

me

per P

erso

n of

the

Wor

ld

Life Expectancy of the World

Liechtenstein

Antigua&Barbuda

Dominica

Palau

NauruTuvalu

Seychelles

St. Kitts& Nevis

AndorraSan Marino

Monaco

Andorra

St.LuciaPanama

Sao Tomeand Principe

Tonga

Samoa

Grenada

Brunei

Comoros

Djibouti

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Luxembourg

Namibia

Swaziland

Timor-Leste

Micronesia

Trinidad and Tobago

Albania

Bhutan

Kiribati

Kosovo

Cyprus

Maldives

Slovenia

Suriname

Belize

Mauritius

Bahamas

Malta

Vanuatu

Montenegro

Estonia

Gambia

Guinea-BissauLesotho

Botswana

Mongolia

Oman

Qatar

Iceland

Barbados

BahrainCapeVerde

Latvia

SolomonIslands

Macedonia

Fiji

Guyana

Jamaica

St.Vincentand G.

Armenia

Lithuania

Uruguay

Mauritania

Moldova

Kuwait

Congo, Rep.Liberia

Bosnia and H. Croatia

Lebanon

Israel

Costa Rica

Puerto Rico

New Zealand

Georgia

Central African Rep.

SwedenSingapore

Norway

Ireland

Finland

Austria

Turkmenistan

Slovak Rep.

Kyrgyzstan

Eritrea

DenmarkTaiwan

Papua New Guinea

Hong Kong

United Arab Emirates

South Sudan

Switzerland

Hungary

BelarusAzerbaijan

Dom.R.

Bulgaria

Serbia

Burundi

LibyaNicaragua

Palestine

Sierra Leone

Laos

Benin

Guinea

Somalia

Tajikistan

Togo

El Salvador

Honduras ParaguayJordan

Poland

Bolivia

Haiti

Czech Rep.

Portugal

Tunisia

Rwanda

GreeceBelgiumCuba

Chad

Senegal

Zimbabwe

Zambia

Cambodia

Ecuador

Guatemala

BurkinaFaso

MalawiNiger

Mali

Kazakhstan

Netherlands

Chile

Romania

Cameroon

Sri Lanka

Cote d'Ivoire

Angola

Madagascar

Syria

Australia

Mozambique

Yemen

North Korea

Afghanistan

Ghana

Nepal

Sudan

SaudiArabia

PeruVenezuela

Malaysia

Morocco

Uzbekistan

Italy

Spain

UK Germany

Canada

France

South Korea

Philippines

Vietnam

Ethiopia

Egypt

IranTurkey

Dem. Rep. Congo

Thailand

South Africa

Myanmar

Colombia

Ukraine

Tanzania

Kenya

Argentina

Algeria

Iraq

Uganda

ChinaBangladesh

Indonesia

Pakistan

USA

Russia

Brazil

Nigeria

Japan

Mexico

India

2011 data for all 193 UN Members and for Hong Kong, Kosovo, Palestine, Puerto Rico and Taiwan.

Documentation andpdf version for print at:

3 orless

10100 1000

millions

Colour by region

Size by population

If you want to see more data visit:

www.gapminder.org

Free to copy, share and remix, but attribute to

Gapminder Foundation.

Version 11 September 2012

map

layo

ut b

y Pao

lo Fa

uson

e

gapminder.org/downloads/world-pdf

GAPMINDER WORLD 2012Mapping the Wealth and Health of Nations

Healthy

Poor Rich

Sick

50

500 1 000 2 000 20 0005 000 10 000 50 000

60

70

80

55

65

75

income per person in US Dollars (GDP/capita, PPP$ inflation adjusted, log scale)

life

exp

ecta

ncy

in ye

ars

Charles Joseph Minard: 1869

ISOTYPE: Otto and Marie Neurath, Gerd Artz

Regression coefficient% Change in population ‘good health’ (+95% CI)

0.0

-0.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

Urban Town/Fringe Rural

0.0

-0.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

Q1 Q2

Income deprivation quintiles (Q1=most deprived)

Q3 Q4 Q5

+0.5%0%(baseline) +0.6% +1.0% +1.1%

Regression coefficient% Change in population ‘good health’ (+95% CI)

0.0-0.5

0.51.01.5

Urban Town/Fringe Rural

0.0-0.5

0.51.01.5

Q1 Q2

Income deprivation quintiles (Q1=most deprived)

Q3 Q4 Q5

+0.5%0%(baseline) +0.6% +1.0% +1.1%

distancefrom sea> 50km 20–50km 5–20km 1–5km

0–1km

Change in no.of people with ‘good health’

(Regression coefficient – % Change in population with ‘good health’ + 95% CI)

0.00.51.01.5

0.0-0.5

0.51.01.5

Q1 Q2Income deprivation quintiles:

Q3 Q4 Q5

Distance of dwelling from sea

> 50km 20–50km 5–20km 1–5km

0–1km

Coast

Health

most deprived least deprived

% Change inpopulation with

‘good health’+ 95% CI 0.0

-0.5

0.51.01.5

Q1 Q2

Income deprivation quintiles

Q3 Q4 Q5


> 50km 20–50km 5–20km 1–5km

0–1km

Coast

Health


0.0-0.5

0.51.01.5



-0.5

0.51.01.5

Q1 Q2

Income deprivation quintiles

Q3 Q4 Q5


> 50km 20–50km 5–20km 1–5km

0–1km

CoastHealth


0.0-0.5

0.51.01.5

(baseline)



-0.5

0.51.01.5

Q1 Q2

All urban areas by income deprivation quintileAll urban areas

Q3 Q4 Q5


> 50km 20–50km 5–20km 1–5km

0–1km

Coast

Health

mostdeprived

leastdeprived

0.0-0.5

0.51.01.5

(baseline)

ECEHH

Information graphics


Working Group II Report impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability !Chapter 8 Human Health

FLOODS AND STORMSGL

OBAL

TRE

NDS

FLOO

D CA

USES

HEAL

TH IM

PACT

S

CLIMATE CHANGE

STORMS

DEATH & INJURY

CASE STUDY 1: BANGLADESH

ASSUMPTIONS

Global temperature rise

Global Sea level rise

Increase in monsoon rains

Increase in monsoondischarge into rivers

People affected

Flooding depth

2°c

30cm

18%

5%

4.8%

30–90cm

4°c

100cm

33%

10%

57%

90–180cm

If human activity continues to warm global temperatures,countries like Bangladesh are likely to see more flooding.

CASE STUDY 2: USAStudies in industrialised countries indicate that densely populated urban areas are at risk from sea-level rise.

INFECTIOUSDISEASES

TOXIC CON-TAMINATION

MENTALHEALTH

RAINFALL EVAPORATIONSEA LEVEL SURFACERUN-OFF

LOCALTOPOGRAPHY

URBANISATION

190019502005

FUTU

RE C

HANG

ES

FLOODS

The majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is causing temperatures to rise around the world. As these higher temperatures free water that is usually frozen at the poles, sea levels are rising. Increased temeratures also lead to more evaporation of water from seas and lakes. This can lead to increased rainfall and greater numbers of storms, cyclones and extreme weather events.

Coastal regions are more vulnerable to flooding as sea levels rise.

Extreme rainfall can overwhelm rivers and lakes, causing them to flood.

Drowning by storm surge is the major killer in coastal storms.

Global warming and changes in land use (like urbanisation) affect how much water is carried in the air.

Urbanisation can affect how much excess water can be absorbed into the ground.

Sometimes, the shape of the land can make areas vulnerable to flooding.

The number of people living in cities is growing, particularly in low income countries.

= 100m people in towns or cities

Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm physical infrastructure, human resilience and social organisation.

Floods are the most frequent natural weather disaster. This informationgraphic shows some of the causes and health impacts of floods, and

shows how the number and severity of floods may increase in the future.

LATIN AMERICA

SOUTH ASIA

MICRONESIA

BAY OF BENGAL(particularly atrisk from stormsurges)

VULNERABLE PEOPLE

Those living in Low lying places(especially thosewith high density)

One-quarter of the world’s population resides within 100 km distance and 100 m elevation of the coastline.

In the USA, lower-income groups were most affected by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Such as children, theinfirm, or those livingin sub-standard housing.

Poorer communities

Those with limitedability to escape

VULNERABLE PLACES

THE NORTHSEA COAST

SEYCHELLES

THE GULFCOAST

THE NILEDELTA

GULF OFGUINEA

Deaths recorded in disaster databases are from drowning and severe injuries.

Improved warnings have decreased mortality from floods and storm surges in the last 30 years; however, the impact of weather disasters in terms of social and health effects is still considerable and is unequally distributed, particularly affecting women.

VENEZUELA

MOZAMBIQUE

CHINA

1999

2000/2001

2003

30,000 DEAD

1,813 DEAD

130m AFFECTED

Particularly inplaces withpoor sanitation:

From storage orfrom chemicalsalready in theenvironment:

Insufficientlyinvestigated,but may include:

Diarrhoealdiseases

Cholera

Cryptosporidiosis

Typhoid fever

Oil

Pesticides

Heavy metals

Hazardouswaste

Post-traumaticstress

Behaviouraldisorders inchildren

Anxiety?

Depression?

LIKELY EFFECTS

2.5–4m belowsea level by 2100

NEW ORLEANS (USA)

1.5–3m belowsea level now

This would mean that a storm surge from a Category 3 hurricane (estimated at 3 to 4 m without waves) could be 6 to 7 m above areas that were heavily populated in 2004.

Mid-range estimate of 48 cm sea level rise by 2100 plussubsidence

FLOODS AND STORMSGL

OBAL

TRE

NDS

FLOO

D CA

USES

HEAL

TH IM

PACT

S

CLIMATE CHANGE

STORMS

DEATH & INJURY


ASSUMPTIONS





People affected

Flooding depth

2°c

30cm

18%

5%

4.8%

30–90cm

4°c

100cm

33%

10%

57%

90–180cm



INFECTIOUSDISEASES


MENTALHEALTH


LOCALTOPOGRAPHY

URBANISATION

190019502005

FUTU

RE C

HANG

ES

FLOODS













LATIN AMERICA

SOUTH ASIA

MICRONESIA


VULNERABLE PEOPLE





Poorer communities


VULNERABLE PLACES

THE NORTHSEA COAST

SEYCHELLES

THE GULFCOAST

THE NILEDELTA

GULF OFGUINEA



VENEZUELA

MOZAMBIQUE

CHINA

1999

2000/2001

2003

30,000 DEAD

1,813 DEAD

130m AFFECTED




Diarrhoealdiseases

Cholera

Cryptosporidiosis

Typhoid fever

Oil

Pesticides

Heavy metals

Hazardouswaste



Anxiety?

Depression?

LIKELY EFFECTS


NEW ORLEANS (USA)




GLOB

AL T

REND

SFL

OOD

CAUS

ESHE

ALTH

IMPA

CTS

STORMS

DEATH & INJURY INFECTIOUSDISEASES



190019502005

FLOODS

This can lead to increased rainfall and greater numbers of storms, cyclones and extreme weather events.






LATIN AMERICA

SOUTH ASIA

MICRONESIA


VULNERABLE PEOPLE





Poorer communities


VULNERABLE PLACES

THE NORTHSEA COAST

SEYCHELLES

THE GULFCOAST

THE NILEDELTA

GULF OFGUINEA


VENEZUELA

MOZAMBIQUE

CHINA

1999

2000/2001

2003

30,000 DEAD

1,813 DEAD

130m AFFECTED


From storage orfrom chemicalsalready in theenvironment:Diarrhoeal

diseases

Cholera

Oil

Pesticides

Investigating the use of information graphics to explain the effects of climate change on health, compared to textual presentation.

FLOODS AND STORMS

GLOB

AL T

REND

SFL

OOD

CAUS

ESHE

ALTH

IMPA

CTS

CLIMATE CHANGE

STORMS

DEATH & INJURY


ASSUMPTIONS





People affected

Flooding depth

2°c

30cm

18%

5%

4.8%

30–90cm

4°c

100cm

33%

10%

57%

90–180cm



INFECTIOUSDISEASES


MENTALHEALTH


LOCALTOPOGRAPHY

URBANISATION

190019502005

FUTU

RE C

HANG

ES

FLOODS













LATIN AMERICA

SOUTH ASIA

MICRONESIA


VULNERABLE PEOPLE





Poorer communities


VULNERABLE PLACES

THE NORTHSEA COAST

SEYCHELLES

THE GULFCOAST

THE NILEDELTA

GULF OFGUINEA



VENEZUELA

MOZAMBIQUE

CHINA

1999

2000/2001

2003

30,000 DEAD

1,813 DEAD

130m AFFECTED




Diarrhoealdiseases

Cholera

Cryptosporidiosis

Typhoid fever

Oil

Pesticides

Heavy metals

Hazardouswaste



Anxiety?

Depression?

LIKELY EFFECTS


NEW ORLEANS (USA)




AIR QUALITY AND DISEASE

POLL

UTIO

N SO

URCE

S

ENERGY PRODUCTION

URBAN TRANSPORT

OZONE MODELSFuture emissions are, of course, uncertain, and depend on assumptions of population growth, economic development, regulatory actions and energy use. Changes in concentrations of ground-level ozone driven by scenarios of future emissions and/or weather patterns have been projected for Europe and North America:

There are no projections for cities in low- or middle-income countries, despite the heavier pollution burdens in these populations.

PM MODELSEvidence for the health impacts of particulate matter is stronger than that for ozone. However, there are few models of the impact of climate change on pollutantsother than ozone. These tend to emphasise the role of local abatement strategies in determining the future levels of, primarily, particulate matter, and tend to project the probability of air-quality standards being exceeded instead of absolute concentrations; the results vary by region.

Because transboundary transport of pollutants plays a significant role in determining local to regional air quality, changing patterns of atmospheric circulation at the hemispheric to global level are likely to be just as important as regional patterns for future local air quality.

FOREST FIRES

AIR

POLL

UTIO

N (A

P)

As well as producing greenhouse gasses such as carbon dioxide, that lead to global warming, the burning of fossil fuels for energy releases small particles into the air, called particulate matter (PM).

Naturally-occuring forest fires mean that toxic gaseous and particulate air pollutants are released into the atmosphere.

MORTALITY AND MORBIDITY

PARTICULATEMATTER (PM)Many different kinds of combustion, both artificial and natural, can cause particles of solid matter can become suspended in the air. PM is known to affect morbidity and mortality.

Weather at all time scales determines the development, transport, dispersion and deposition of air pollutants, with the passage of fronts, cyclonic and anticyclonic systems and their associated air masses being of particular importance. This information graphic shows

some of the causes and health impacts of air pollution, and shows how both the amount of air pollution, and our exposure to it, may increase in the future.

Ozone generation is affected by:— Bright sunlight— Raised temperatures— Low winds— Atmospheric moisture

The amount of air pollution breathed in by people depends on:— Wind / circulation of air— Topography— Housing characteristics— Activity patterns

PM generation is affected by:— Raised temperatures — Atmospheric moisture

The number of forest fires is affected by:— Raised temperatures— Atmospheric moisture

In urban areas, transport vehicles are the key sources of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that lead to ground-level ozone. Burning fossil fuels for transport also releases other gasses and particles.

ALLERGICRHINITIS

OTHERDISEASE

BURNS & SMOKEINHALATIONSevere

allergies can limit quality of life.

Particularly affects children.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Can affect quality of life, and is increasingly common, particularly in children.

Other Cardio-vascular and respiratory diseases are also caused by air pollution.

forest fires can have direct effects on health.

COPDPNEUMONIA ASTHMA

OTHER TOXICGASSESAs well as ozone, other toxic gasses such as carbon monoxide can have effects on human health.

OZONEOzone is a secondary pollutant formed through photochemical reactions involving nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the presence of bright sunshine with high temperatures.

CLIMATE CHANGEThe majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is causing temperatures to rise around the world. These higher temperatures can affect weather systems, causing extremely high or extremely low winds. Rising temperatures also affect the amount of water in the atmosphere.

These changes may affect air pollution in two main ways. First, it may mean that the atmospheric conditions are right for more air pollution to form. Secondly, it may change the patterns of air flow, meaning that more people are exposed to this pollution.

FUTU

RE C

HANG

ES

REFERENCE AREATEMP.

INCREASE EMISSIONS EFFECTS

Knowlton et al., 2004

Bell et al., 2007

Andersonet al., 2001

New Yorkarea, USA

50 cities,East USA

England& Wales

1.6 –3.2°C

1.6 –3.2°C

0.9 –2.4°C

mediumincrease

mediumincrease

noincrease

4.5% moredeaths

0.6% moredeaths

ozone +other AP -

assumed changesby 2050s

(all models assume population constant at year 2000 level)

FLOODS AND STORMSFloods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm physical infrastructure, human resilience and social organisation. Floods are the most frequent natural weather disaster. Floods result from the interaction of rainfall, surface runoff, evaporation, wind, sea level and local topography. In inland areas, flood regimes vary substantially depending on catchment size, topography and climate. Water management practices, urbanisation, intensified land use and forestry can substantially alter the risks of floods. Windstorms are often associated with floods.

Major storm and flood disasters have occurred in the last two decades. In 2003, 130 million people were affected by floods in China. In 1999, 30,000 died from storms followed by floods and landslides in Venezuela. In 2000/2001, 1,813 died in floods in Mozambique. Improved structural and non-structural measures, particularly improved warnings, have decreased mortality from floods and storm surges in the last 30 years; however, the impact of weather disasters in terms of social and health effects is still considerable and is unequally distributed, particularly affecting women. Flood health impacts range from deaths, injuries, infectious diseases and toxic contamination, to mental health problems.

In terms of deaths and populations affected, floods and tropical cyclones have the greatest impact in South Asia and Latin America. Deaths recorded in disaster databases are from drowning and severe injuries. Deaths from unsafe or unhealthy conditions following the extreme event are also a health consequence, but such information is rarely included in disaster statistics. Drowning by storm surge is the major killer in coastal storms where there are large numbers of deaths. An assessment of surges in the past 100 years found that major events were confined to a limited number of regions, with many events occurring in the Bay of Bengal, particularly Bangladesh.

Populations with poor sanitation infrastructure and high burdens of infectious disease often experience increased rates of diarrhoeal diseases after flood events. Increases in cholera, cryptosporidiosis and typhoid fever have been reported in low- and middle-income countries. Flood related increases in diarrhoeal disease have also been reported in India, Brazil and Bangladesh. The floods in Mozambique in 2001 were estimated to have caused over 8,000 additional cases and 447 deaths from diarrhoeal disease in the following months.

The risk of infectious disease following flooding in high income countries is generally low, although increases in respiratory and diarrhoeal diseases have been reported after floods. An important exception was the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the USA in 2005, where contamination of water supplies with faecal bacteria led to many cases of diarrhoeal illness and some deaths.

Flooding may lead to contamination of waters with dangerous chemicals, heavy metals or other hazardous substances, from storage or from chemicals already in the environment (e.g., pesticides). Chemical contamination following Hurricane Katrina in the USA included oil spills from refineries and storage tanks, pesticides, metals and hazardous waste. Concentrations of most contaminants were within acceptable short-term levels, except for lead and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in some areas. There are also health risks associated with long-term contamination of soil and sediment; however, there is little published evidence demonstrating a causal effect of chemical contamination on the pattern of morbidity and mortality following flooding events. Increases in population density and accelerating industrial development in areas subject to natural disasters increase the probability of future disasters and the potential for mass human exposure to hazardous materials released during disasters.

There is increasing evidence of the importance of mental disorders as an impact of disasters. Prolonged impairment resulting from common mental disorders (anxiety and depression) may be considerable. Studies in both low- and high-income countries indicate that the mental-health aspect of flood-related impacts has been insufficiently investigated. A systematic review of post-traumatic stress disorder in high income countries found a small but significant effect following disasters. There is also evidence of medium- to long-term impacts on behavioural disorders in young children.

Vulnerability to weather disasters depends on the attributes of the person at risk (including where they live, age, income, education and disability) and on broader social and environmental factors (level of disaster preparedness, health sector responses and environmental degradation). Poorer communities, particularly slum dwellers, are more likely to live in flood-prone areas. In the USA, lower-income groups were most affected by Hurricane Katrina, and low-income schools had twice the risk of being flooded compared with the reference group.

High-density populations in low-lying coastal regions experience a high health burden from weather disasters, such as settlements along the North Sea coast in north-west Europe, the Seychelles, parts of Micronesia, the Gulf Coast of the USA and Mexico, the Nile Delta, the Gulf of Guinea, and the Bay of Bengal. Environmentally degraded areas are particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones and coastal flooding under current climate conditions.

Future vulnerability to climate change

The impacts of developmental, climatic and environmental scenarios on population health are important for health-system planning processes. Also, future trends in health are relevant to climate change because the health of populations is an important element of adaptive capacity.

Coastal flooding is projected to result in a large proportional mortality increase under unmitigated emissions; however, this is applied to a low burden of disease, so the aggregate impact is small. The relative risk is projected to increase as much in high- as in low-income countries.

Particularly vulnerable populations and regions are more likely to suffer harm, have less ability to respond to stresses imposed by climate variability and change, and have exhibited limited progress in reducing current vulnerabilities. For example, all persons living in a flood plain are at risk during a flood, but those with lowered ability to escape floodwaters and their consequences (such as children and the infirm, or those living in sub-standard housing) are at higher risk.

Urban populations are growing faster in low-income than in high-income countries. The urban population increased from 220 million in 1900 to 732 million in 1950, and is estimated to have reached 3.2 billion in 2005. In 2005, 74% of the population in more-developed regions was urban, compared with 43% in less-developed regions. Approximately 4.9 billion people are projected to be urban dwellers in 2030, about 60% of the global population, including 81% of the population in more-developed regions and 56% of the population in less-developed regions.

Urbanisation can positively influence population health; for example, by making it easier to provide safe water and improved sanitation. However, rapid and unplanned urbanisation is often associated with adverse health outcomes. Urban slums and squatter settlements are often located in areas subject to landslides, floods and other natural hazards.

Climate change could have a range of adverse effects on some rural populations and regions, including flood and storm damage, loss of cropping land through floods, and a rise in sea level.

One-quarter of the world’s population resides within 100 km distance and 100 m elevation of the coastline, with increases likely over the coming decades. Climate change could affect coastal areas through an accelerated rise in sea level; an intensification of tropical cyclones; changes in wave and storm surge characteristics; and altered precipitation/runoff. These changes could affect human health through coastal flooding and damaged coastal infrastructure; saltwater intrusion into coastal freshwater resources; damage to coastal ecosystems, coral reefs and coastal fisheries; population displacement; amongst others. Although some Small Island States and other low-lying areas are at particular risk, there are few projections of the health impact of climate variability and change.

Densely populated regions in low-lying areas are vulnerable to climate change. In Bangladesh, it is projected that 4.8% of people living in unprotected dryland areas could face inundation by a water depth of 30 to 90 cm based on assumptions of a 2°C temperature increase, a 30 cm increase in sea level, an 18% increase in monsoon precipitation, and a 5% increase in monsoon discharge into major rivers. This could increase to 57% of people based on assumptions of a 4°C temperature increase, a 100 cm increase in sea level, a 33% increase in monsoon precipitation, and a 10% increase in monsoon discharge into major rivers. Some areas could face higher levels of inundation (90 to 180 cm).

Studies in industrialised countries indicate that densely populated urban areas are at risk from sea-level rise. As demonstrated by Hurricane Katrina, areas of New Orleans (USA) and its vicinity are 1.5 to 3 m below sea level. Considering the rate of subsidence and using a mid-range estimate of 480 mm sea-level rise by 2100, it is projected that this region could be 2.5 to 4.0 m or more below mean sea level by 2100, and that a storm surge from a Category 3 hurricane (estimated at 3 to 4 m without waves) could be 6 to 7 m above areas that were heavily populated in 2004.

TEXT A GRAPHIC A TEXT B GRAPHIC B149 177 163 185

RISK GROUP A:STORMS & FLOODS

RISK GROUP B:AIR QUALITY

8 mins

3 mins

View Time

KEYMEAN & 95% CI

SIG. (P < 0.05)

N.S. (P > 0.05)

157 129 160 179 142 166157 129 160 179 142 166

6

5

3

4

Approval

TEXT A GRAPHIC A TEXT B GRAPHIC B149 177 163 185



8 mins

3 mins

View Time

KEYMEAN & 95% CI

SIG. (P < 0.05)

N.S. (P > 0.05)

6 mins*

3 mins

157 129 160 179 142 166157 129 160 179 142 166

View Time (log10)

CONTROL A TEXT A GRAPHIC A CONTROL B TEXT B GRAPHIC B159 130 164 179 142 166



Memory

KEYMEAN & 95% CI

SIG. (P < 0.05)

N.S. (P > 0.05)

100%

0%

80%

60%

CONTROL A TEXT A GRAPHIC A CONTROL B TEXT B GRAPHIC BRISK GROUP A:

STORMS & FLOODSRISK GROUP B:AIR QUALITY

157 129 160 179 142 166

Knowledge

CONTROL A TEXT A GRAPHIC A CONTROL B TEXT B GRAPHIC B158 129 160 176 142 161



Risk perception (severity)

7

1

KEYMEAN & 95% CI

SIG. (P < 0.05)

N.S. (P > 0.05)CONTROL A TEXT A GRAPHIC A CONTROL B TEXT B GRAPHIC B



157 129 160 179 142 166

28

14

control graphictext

Mean knowledge

80%

70%

60%

50%

Error Bars: 95% CI

18-2

728

-37

38-4

748

-57

58-6

768

-77

18-2

728

-37

38-4

748

-57

58-6

768

-77

18-2

728

-37

38-4

748

-57

58-6

768

-77Age

group:

Conclusions

!

- This type of box / arrow diagram can be used to communicate information on climate change health impacts in less time and more effectively than using text, for this audience.

!

- The technique might be used to effectively present other non-linear narratives.

!

- The study suggests that understanding the mechanisms for climate change health impacts, even in the short term, could increase risk awareness.

Limitations

!

- Questions asked only test limited knowledge.

- Captive audience - doesn’t show attracting attention.

Investigating the use of information graphics to explain the effects of climate change on health, compared to textual presentation.

FLOODS AND STORMS

GLOB

AL T

REND

SFL

OOD

CAUS

ESHE

ALTH

IMPA

CTS

CLIMATE CHANGE

STORMS

DEATH & INJURY


ASSUMPTIONS





People affected

Flooding depth

2°c

30cm

18%

5%

4.8%

30–90cm

4°c

100cm

33%

10%

57%

90–180cm



INFECTIOUSDISEASES


MENTALHEALTH


LOCALTOPOGRAPHY

URBANISATION

190019502005

FUTU

RE C

HANG

ES

FLOODS













LATIN AMERICA

SOUTH ASIA

MICRONESIA


VULNERABLE PEOPLE





Poorer communities


VULNERABLE PLACES

THE NORTHSEA COAST

SEYCHELLES

THE GULFCOAST

THE NILEDELTA

GULF OFGUINEA



VENEZUELA

MOZAMBIQUE

CHINA

1999

2000/2001

2003

30,000 DEAD

1,813 DEAD

130m AFFECTED




Diarrhoealdiseases

Cholera

Cryptosporidiosis

Typhoid fever

Oil

Pesticides

Heavy metals

Hazardouswaste



Anxiety?

Depression?

LIKELY EFFECTS


NEW ORLEANS (USA)




AIR QUALITY AND DISEASE

POLL

UTIO

N SO

URCE

S

ENERGY PRODUCTION

URBAN TRANSPORT

OZONE MODELSFuture emissions are, of course, uncertain, and depend on assumptions of population growth, economic development, regulatory actions and energy use. Changes in concentrations of ground-level ozone driven by scenarios of future emissions and/or weather patterns have been projected for Europe and North America:

There are no projections for cities in low- or middle-income countries, despite the heavier pollution burdens in these populations.

PM MODELSEvidence for the health impacts of particulate matter is stronger than that for ozone. However, there are few models of the impact of climate change on pollutantsother than ozone. These tend to emphasise the role of local abatement strategies in determining the future levels of, primarily, particulate matter, and tend to project the probability of air-quality standards being exceeded instead of absolute concentrations; the results vary by region.

Because transboundary transport of pollutants plays a significant role in determining local to regional air quality, changing patterns of atmospheric circulation at the hemispheric to global level are likely to be just as important as regional patterns for future local air quality.

FOREST FIRES

AIR

POLL

UTIO

N (A

P)

As well as producing greenhouse gasses such as carbon dioxide, that lead to global warming, the burning of fossil fuels for energy releases small particles into the air, called particulate matter (PM).

Naturally-occuring forest fires mean that toxic gaseous and particulate air pollutants are released into the atmosphere.

MORTALITY AND MORBIDITY

PARTICULATEMATTER (PM)Many different kinds of combustion, both artificial and natural, can cause particles of solid matter can become suspended in the air. PM is known to affect morbidity and mortality.

Weather at all time scales determines the development, transport, dispersion and deposition of air pollutants, with the passage of fronts, cyclonic and anticyclonic systems and their associated air masses being of particular importance. This information graphic shows

some of the causes and health impacts of air pollution, and shows how both the amount of air pollution, and our exposure to it, may increase in the future.

Ozone generation is affected by:— Bright sunlight— Raised temperatures— Low winds— Atmospheric moisture

The amount of air pollution breathed in by people depends on:— Wind / circulation of air— Topography— Housing characteristics— Activity patterns

PM generation is affected by:— Raised temperatures — Atmospheric moisture

The number of forest fires is affected by:— Raised temperatures— Atmospheric moisture

In urban areas, transport vehicles are the key sources of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that lead to ground-level ozone. Burning fossil fuels for transport also releases other gasses and particles.

ALLERGICRHINITIS

OTHERDISEASE

BURNS & SMOKEINHALATIONSevere

allergies can limit quality of life.

Particularly affects children.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Can affect quality of life, and is increasingly common, particularly in children.

Other Cardio-vascular and respiratory diseases are also caused by air pollution.

forest fires can have direct effects on health.

COPDPNEUMONIA ASTHMA

OTHER TOXICGASSESAs well as ozone, other toxic gasses such as carbon monoxide can have effects on human health.

OZONEOzone is a secondary pollutant formed through photochemical reactions involving nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the presence of bright sunshine with high temperatures.

CLIMATE CHANGEThe majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is causing temperatures to rise around the world. These higher temperatures can affect weather systems, causing extremely high or extremely low winds. Rising temperatures also affect the amount of water in the atmosphere.

These changes may affect air pollution in two main ways. First, it may mean that the atmospheric conditions are right for more air pollution to form. Secondly, it may change the patterns of air flow, meaning that more people are exposed to this pollution.

FUTU

RE C

HANG

ES

REFERENCE AREATEMP.

INCREASE EMISSIONS EFFECTS

Knowlton et al., 2004

Bell et al., 2007

Andersonet al., 2001

New Yorkarea, USA

50 cities,East USA

England& Wales

1.6 –3.2°C

1.6 –3.2°C

0.9 –2.4°C

mediumincrease

mediumincrease

noincrease

4.5% moredeaths

0.6% moredeaths

ozone +other AP -

assumed changesby 2050s

(all models assume population constant at year 2000 level)

FLOODS AND STORMSFloods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm physical infrastructure, human resilience and social organisation. Floods are the most frequent natural weather disaster. Floods result from the interaction of rainfall, surface runoff, evaporation, wind, sea level and local topography. In inland areas, flood regimes vary substantially depending on catchment size, topography and climate. Water management practices, urbanisation, intensified land use and forestry can substantially alter the risks of floods. Windstorms are often associated with floods.

Major storm and flood disasters have occurred in the last two decades. In 2003, 130 million people were affected by floods in China. In 1999, 30,000 died from storms followed by floods and landslides in Venezuela. In 2000/2001, 1,813 died in floods in Mozambique. Improved structural and non-structural measures, particularly improved warnings, have decreased mortality from floods and storm surges in the last 30 years; however, the impact of weather disasters in terms of social and health effects is still considerable and is unequally distributed, particularly affecting women. Flood health impacts range from deaths, injuries, infectious diseases and toxic contamination, to mental health problems.

In terms of deaths and populations affected, floods and tropical cyclones have the greatest impact in South Asia and Latin America. Deaths recorded in disaster databases are from drowning and severe injuries. Deaths from unsafe or unhealthy conditions following the extreme event are also a health consequence, but such information is rarely included in disaster statistics. Drowning by storm surge is the major killer in coastal storms where there are large numbers of deaths. An assessment of surges in the past 100 years found that major events were confined to a limited number of regions, with many events occurring in the Bay of Bengal, particularly Bangladesh.

Populations with poor sanitation infrastructure and high burdens of infectious disease often experience increased rates of diarrhoeal diseases after flood events. Increases in cholera, cryptosporidiosis and typhoid fever have been reported in low- and middle-income countries. Flood related increases in diarrhoeal disease have also been reported in India, Brazil and Bangladesh. The floods in Mozambique in 2001 were estimated to have caused over 8,000 additional cases and 447 deaths from diarrhoeal disease in the following months.

The risk of infectious disease following flooding in high income countries is generally low, although increases in respiratory and diarrhoeal diseases have been reported after floods. An important exception was the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the USA in 2005, where contamination of water supplies with faecal bacteria led to many cases of diarrhoeal illness and some deaths.

Flooding may lead to contamination of waters with dangerous chemicals, heavy metals or other hazardous substances, from storage or from chemicals already in the environment (e.g., pesticides). Chemical contamination following Hurricane Katrina in the USA included oil spills from refineries and storage tanks, pesticides, metals and hazardous waste. Concentrations of most contaminants were within acceptable short-term levels, except for lead and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in some areas. There are also health risks associated with long-term contamination of soil and sediment; however, there is little published evidence demonstrating a causal effect of chemical contamination on the pattern of morbidity and mortality following flooding events. Increases in population density and accelerating industrial development in areas subject to natural disasters increase the probability of future disasters and the potential for mass human exposure to hazardous materials released during disasters.

There is increasing evidence of the importance of mental disorders as an impact of disasters. Prolonged impairment resulting from common mental disorders (anxiety and depression) may be considerable. Studies in both low- and high-income countries indicate that the mental-health aspect of flood-related impacts has been insufficiently investigated. A systematic review of post-traumatic stress disorder in high income countries found a small but significant effect following disasters. There is also evidence of medium- to long-term impacts on behavioural disorders in young children.

Vulnerability to weather disasters depends on the attributes of the person at risk (including where they live, age, income, education and disability) and on broader social and environmental factors (level of disaster preparedness, health sector responses and environmental degradation). Poorer communities, particularly slum dwellers, are more likely to live in flood-prone areas. In the USA, lower-income groups were most affected by Hurricane Katrina, and low-income schools had twice the risk of being flooded compared with the reference group.

High-density populations in low-lying coastal regions experience a high health burden from weather disasters, such as settlements along the North Sea coast in north-west Europe, the Seychelles, parts of Micronesia, the Gulf Coast of the USA and Mexico, the Nile Delta, the Gulf of Guinea, and the Bay of Bengal. Environmentally degraded areas are particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones and coastal flooding under current climate conditions.

Future vulnerability to climate change

The impacts of developmental, climatic and environmental scenarios on population health are important for health-system planning processes. Also, future trends in health are relevant to climate change because the health of populations is an important element of adaptive capacity.

Coastal flooding is projected to result in a large proportional mortality increase under unmitigated emissions; however, this is applied to a low burden of disease, so the aggregate impact is small. The relative risk is projected to increase as much in high- as in low-income countries.

Particularly vulnerable populations and regions are more likely to suffer harm, have less ability to respond to stresses imposed by climate variability and change, and have exhibited limited progress in reducing current vulnerabilities. For example, all persons living in a flood plain are at risk during a flood, but those with lowered ability to escape floodwaters and their consequences (such as children and the infirm, or those living in sub-standard housing) are at higher risk.

Urban populations are growing faster in low-income than in high-income countries. The urban population increased from 220 million in 1900 to 732 million in 1950, and is estimated to have reached 3.2 billion in 2005. In 2005, 74% of the population in more-developed regions was urban, compared with 43% in less-developed regions. Approximately 4.9 billion people are projected to be urban dwellers in 2030, about 60% of the global population, including 81% of the population in more-developed regions and 56% of the population in less-developed regions.

Urbanisation can positively influence population health; for example, by making it easier to provide safe water and improved sanitation. However, rapid and unplanned urbanisation is often associated with adverse health outcomes. Urban slums and squatter settlements are often located in areas subject to landslides, floods and other natural hazards.

Climate change could have a range of adverse effects on some rural populations and regions, including flood and storm damage, loss of cropping land through floods, and a rise in sea level.

One-quarter of the world’s population resides within 100 km distance and 100 m elevation of the coastline, with increases likely over the coming decades. Climate change could affect coastal areas through an accelerated rise in sea level; an intensification of tropical cyclones; changes in wave and storm surge characteristics; and altered precipitation/runoff. These changes could affect human health through coastal flooding and damaged coastal infrastructure; saltwater intrusion into coastal freshwater resources; damage to coastal ecosystems, coral reefs and coastal fisheries; population displacement; amongst others. Although some Small Island States and other low-lying areas are at particular risk, there are few projections of the health impact of climate variability and change.

Densely populated regions in low-lying areas are vulnerable to climate change. In Bangladesh, it is projected that 4.8% of people living in unprotected dryland areas could face inundation by a water depth of 30 to 90 cm based on assumptions of a 2°C temperature increase, a 30 cm increase in sea level, an 18% increase in monsoon precipitation, and a 5% increase in monsoon discharge into major rivers. This could increase to 57% of people based on assumptions of a 4°C temperature increase, a 100 cm increase in sea level, a 33% increase in monsoon precipitation, and a 10% increase in monsoon discharge into major rivers. Some areas could face higher levels of inundation (90 to 180 cm).

Studies in industrialised countries indicate that densely populated urban areas are at risk from sea-level rise. As demonstrated by Hurricane Katrina, areas of New Orleans (USA) and its vicinity are 1.5 to 3 m below sea level. Considering the rate of subsidence and using a mid-range estimate of 480 mm sea-level rise by 2100, it is projected that this region could be 2.5 to 4.0 m or more below mean sea level by 2100, and that a storm surge from a Category 3 hurricane (estimated at 3 to 4 m without waves) could be 6 to 7 m above areas that were heavily populated in 2004.



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FoE nov 2013

Technology

Transcript of FoE nov 2013