Flood forecast technological platforms: an adaptive ... · Alqueva CEMIG Lima Ave. Fews-AVE...
38
Flood forecast technological platforms: an adaptive response to extreme events José M P Vieira
Transcript of Flood forecast technological platforms: an adaptive ... · Alqueva CEMIG Lima Ave. Fews-AVE...
Flood forecast technological platforms: an adaptive
response to extreme events
José M P Vieira
Summary
• Floods. Threats and challenges
• Hydrological data collection and forecast
• Mathematical Modelling
• FEWS-AVE platform
• Conclusion
Summary
• Floods. Threats and challenges
• Hydrological data collection and forecast
• Mathematical Modelling
• FEWS-AVE platform
• Conclusion
4
Flooding in Bangkok (photo by Adri Verwey, Deltares)
5
Flooding in Bangkok (photo by Adri Verwey, Deltares)
6
Flooding in Bangkok (photo by Adri Verwey, Deltares)
7
8JLS Pinho
River Douro
9JLS Pinho
River Mondego
10JLS Pinho
Brazilian basins
Minas Gerais
Floods. Threats and challenges
• New developments / tools for forecasting and
warning systems
• Real-time meteorological information
– Satellite based weather radar
– Meteorological radar
• Atmospheric models forecasting for different time
horizons
• Hydro-meteorological monitoring11
Summary
• Floods. Threats and challenges
• Hydrological data collection and forecast
• Mathematical Modelling
• FEWS-AVE platform
• Conclusion
Hydrological data collection and forecast
Forecast Systems
• Australia • USA • Europe
Hydrological data collection and forecast
14
Available data in
real time
Hydrological data collection and forecast
15
Forecasts
CFS GFS
WRF GEFSWeather Research Forecasting
MeteoGaliciaGlobal Ensemble Forecast System
Global Forecast SystemClimate Forecast System
Summary
• Floods. Threats and challenges
• Hydrological data collection and forecast
• Mathematical Modelling
• FEWS-AVE platform
• Conclusion
Mathematical modelling
• Models base
17
Model Country Model Country
APICONT USA PCRASTER Netherlands
ARMA UK PDM UK
BASEFLOW USA PREVAH Switzerland
CHANLOSS USA PRTF UK
CONSUSE USA RESSNGL USA
Continuum Italy REW Netherlands
D-Flow FM Netherlands RIBASIM Netherlands
DELFT3D Netherlands RSNELEV USA
DELFT-3D Netherlands RTC Tools Netherlands
DODO UK SAC-SMA USA
DPWE Bank retreat model Taiwan Sacramento Netherlands
DPWE Landslide model Taiwan SACSMA-HT USA
EFDC Netherlands SARROUTE USA
Flux Austria SelfeWWMII USA, France
GLACIER USA Snow17 USA
Grid2Grid UK SOBEK Netherlands
HBV Sweden SOBEK-2d Netherlands
HEC-HMS USA Source Australia
HEC-RAS USA SSARRESV USA
HEC-ResSim USA StarWars Netherlands
Het Wageningen Netherlands STF UK
HSPF Netherlands SWAN Netherlands
ISIS UK SWMM USA
JFlow UK SynHP Germany
KW UK TATUM USA
LAG/K USA TCM UK
LAYCOEF USA Telemac Belgium
LAYCOEF USA TETIS Spain
LISFLOOD-FP UK TOPKAPI Italy
MCRM UK TOPKAPI-X Italy
Mike11 Denmark TRITON UK
Modflow96/VKD Netherlands/UK TWAM UK
MUSKROUT USA Unit-HG USA
NAM Denmark URBS Australia
OpenDA Netherlands WALRUS Netherlands
OpenStreams Netherlands WASIM-ETH Switzerland
PACK UK WW3 Netherlands
PCOverslag Netherlands XBeach Netherlands
HMS
Sacramento
Sobek
HEC-RASRMA2
DELFT3D
RTC
Mathematical modelling
• Hydrologic model (Sobek-Sacramento)
18
Mathematical modelling
• 1D Hydrodynamics models (continuity and
momentum equations)
19
lat
fq
x
Q
t
A=
+
02
2
=−+
+
+
w
wif
f
f
f
WRAC
QgQ
x
hgA
A
Q
xt
Q
( ) ( )ff
fSA
x
CDA
xx
QC
t
CA+
+
−=
Mathematical modelling
• 2D Hydrodynamics models (continuity and
momentum equations)
20
( ) ( ) 0
ηηη=
++
++
y
Vh
x
Uh
t
( )
+
+
+
+−
++
+
−
−+=
+
+
2
2
2
2
2
222
ρ
ε
ηη
cosρ
2
ηρ
ρ
η
y
U
x
U
Ch
VUgU
h
kWh
X
g
xgfV
y
UV
x
UU
t
U va
( )
+
+
+
+−
++
+
−
−−=
+
+
2
2
2
2
2
222
ρ
ε
ηη
ρ
2
ηρ
ρ
η
y
V
x
V
Ch
VUgV
h
senkWh
y
g
ygfU
y
VV
x
VU
t
V va
( ) ( ) 0)()( =+
−
−
+
+
Ck
y
CE
yx
CE
xVC
yUC
xt
CCyx
Mathematical modelling
• Mesh discretization
21
Mathematical modelling
• Hydraulics structures
22
( ),C,A,hhfQ sjm= Bridges
Weirs
Orifices
Gates
Syphons
Turbines/Pumps
Mathematical modelling
• RTC (real time control of hydraulic structures)
23
Summary
• Floods. Threats and challenges
• Hydrological data collection and forecast
• Mathematical Modelling
• FEWS-AVE platform
• Conclusion
Fews-AVE platform
• Delft-FEWS (Flood and Early Warning Systems)
25
Fews-AVE platform
• U.Minho former experiences with Delft-FEWS
26
Alqueva CEMIG
Lima Ave
Fews-AVE platform
• River Ave Case Study. Basin description
27
Fews-AVE platform
• River Ave Case Study. GFS forecast precipitation
28
Forecasts
CFS GFS
WRF GEFS
Fews-AVE platform
• River Ave Case Study. WRF forecast precipitation
29
Forecasts
CFS GFS
WRF GEFS
Fews-AVE platform
• River Ave case study. Models calibration
30
Sub-basin NSE BIAS RMSE MAE R2 Average
sim.
Average
obs.
(-) (-) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) (-) (m3/s) (m3/s)
Este 0.68 1.9 3.6 2.6 0.78 6.9 8.8
Selho 0.77 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.78 1.6 1.8
Fews-AVE platform
• River Ave case study. Flows forecasts for river Este
31
Fews-AVE platform
• River Ave case study. Flows forecasts for river Selho
32
Fews-AVE platform
• Uncertainty analysis of precipitation forecasts (WRF,GFS,
GEFS)
33
Pre
cip
ita
tion
(m
m/d
ay)
Pre
cip
ita
tion
(m
m/d
ay)
Pre
cip
ita
tion
(m
m/d
ay)
Pre
cip
ita
tion
(m
m/d
ay)
Stations Forecasts Stations Forecasts Stations Forecasts Stations Forecasts
1 Day 2 Days 3 Days 4 Days
Fews-AVE platform
• Results of PID controller against manual operation
34
Water Sci Technol. 2019;80(1):173-183. doi:10.2166/wst.2019.264
Summary
• Floods. Threats and challenges
• Hydrological data collection and forecast
• Mathematical Modelling
• FEWS-AVE platform
• Conclusion
Conclusion
• Traditional approach
36
APC R A
F
Intermédia Ribª Mortágua
Rios Ceira e Dueça Rio Alva
Rio Mondego
PSC
Nalerta
Almaça Coimbra Côja Fajão
Góis Lousã Penacova Penela
Ponte Cabouco
- Estação hidrométrica (niveis e caudais)
- Estação udométrica (precipitações)
APC R A
F
Intermédia Ribª Mortágua
Rios Ceira e Dueça Rio Alva
Rio Mondego
PSC
Nalerta
Ponte Cabouco
- Estação hidrométrica
▪ New approach
Conclusion
• The flood forecast platform developed at the University of Minho is
based on the Delft-FEWS platform, and use:
– Hydrological data from: real time meteorological information;
forecasting from atmospheric models; and hydro-meteorological
monitoring
– Hydrological and hydrodynamics models
• Good results from hydrological and hydrodynamics model calibration
allows the prediction of reliable river flows forecasting (key-issue for
flooding early warning)
• The flood forecast accuracy greatly depends on the quality of
precipitation data and on the knowledge of river hydrodynamics.
That is why precipitation gauge stations were recently installed in
river Ave basin, and installation of pressure sensors at flood prone
river stretches are planned.
37
