DSD-INT 2014 - Delft-FEWS Users Meeting - Floodrisk management & Delft FEWS Workshop, Caroline...

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2010 template.

Documents and

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October 2014

HR Wallingford Deltares Collaboration

Developing an operational flood-risk-forecasting toolkit

C. Hazlewood, E. Brown, L. Boelee, B. Gouldby, J. Lhomme

A. de Leeuw, F. Diermanse, D. Bachman

© HR Wallingford 2014 October 2014 Delft-FEWS User Days

HR Wallingford

Specialise in engineering and

environmental hydraulics, and in the

management of water and the water

environment

Formed 1947

Privatised 1982

Limited by guarantee

Non profit distributing

Independent

Over 280 staff

£25m turnover

© HR Wallingford 2014

Flood forecasting typically focuses on

hazards e.g. river flows, water levels

Flood risk management considers wider

system performance e.g. defence failures;

floodplain extents, depths & velocities;

consequences; etc.

Opportunity for richer ‘live’ information: What type of action can I take to mend a

weak spot?

Where should I enforce my flood defence

system?

Which areas should I evacuate first?

Which least-cost areas could be actively

inundated to save other areas?

October 2014

Why do we need something new?

Delft-FEWS User Days


Develop an operational flood-risk-

forecasting toolkit

Toolkit of models in Delft-FEWS shell:

hydrology

river system (1D)

dynamic breach growth

rapid flood spreading (2D)

impact assessment (risk to life, critical

infrastructure, economic consequence)

Move to: risk-based approach

probabilistic e.g. rainfall ensembles,

defence performance

October 2014

Collaboration Aims



Application of toolkit

Not one size fits all

Select important processes (and

hence capability) for your

catchment

fluvial vs coastal

urban vs rural

flood risk infrastructure e.g. storage,

defences, pumps, barriers, etc.

Flexibility to use hierarchy of data

and models - simple assumptions,

generic datasets, detailed

modelling

October 2014 Delft-FEWS User Days


Risk model framework




October 2014

Hydrological models e.g.

WFLOW: A distributed hydrological modelling platform which includes

derivations of SBM, HBV96, gr4h/d, a dynamic wave model, an associated flood

mapping model

HR Wallingford gridded model - computationally efficient, semi-distributed

hydrological model providing spatially coherent estimates of river flow and

groundwater level. (Counsell, 2014)




October 2014

River models - MASCARET Open Source 1D open-channel hydraulic software

Originally developed by EDF, now managed by a consortia

(Goutal and Maurel 2002; Goutal et al, 2012)





Reliability models/data e.g.

Library of fragility curves for all asset types (> 60)

Tools such as: RELIABLE (Kortenhaus et al, 2008; FLOODsite),

Hydra-Ring (Deltares)

Section 16

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

Water level (m OD)

Pro

bab

ilit

y o

f fa

ilu

re

Total

Uplifting

Piping

Sliding

Overturning

Reinforcement failure

Shear failure

Piping toe

Crest level

Indication extreme

w ater level

Reliability analysis

Numerical

Integration

Structure-specific

Fault tree

Limit state equation

Failure mode 1


Failure mode 2


Failure mode 3


Failure mode ..n

Structure-specific

parameters, probability

distribution functions and

ranges

Structure-specific

fragility curve



October 2014

Breach model - AREBA Rapid breach growth - predicts flood hydrograph and

breach widths and depths for surface, headcut and

piping failures (Van Damme et al, 2012)




October 2014

Inundation model - RFSM-EDA Rapid Flood Spreading Model Explicit Diffusion wave

with Acceleration terms

Impact zones with volume-level and level-width curve

Minimal loss of accuracy in topography description

Developed by HR Wallingford (Jamieson et al, 2012)




October 2014

Impact models - economic assessment

Depth-damage curves for residential and commercial

property, agriculture, key infrastructure e.g. FIAT

(Deltares), Impact Calculator (HR Wallingford)

-1-0.75

-0.5-0.25

00.250.5

0.751

1.251.5

1.752

2.252.5

2.753

0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500

De

pth

Me

tres

Damage £/m2

Depth Damage Curve

HighSuscept ibility

Band

LowSuscept ibility

Band

Indica tiveSuscept ibility




October 2014

Impact models - risk to life

Agent-based modelling of the dynamic interaction of

the flood wave from a breach or dam break with

people, vehicles and property

A

B

Starting location

of person

Direction

of movement

of flood

wave

C

Target safe haven

N

Person

Safe haven

Road network

Escape route (on foot)

Escape route (in vehicle)

Floodwater

A

B

Starting location

of person

Direction

of movement

of flood

wave

C

Target safe haven

N

Person

Safe haven

Road network

Escape route (on foot)

Escape route (in vehicle)

Floodwater



Example outputs - flood likelihood (ensemble 1, DRAFT)



Example outputs - flood damage (€, $) DRAFT



Example outputs - defence risk (€, $) DRAFT



Example outputs - Life safety



Scoping Study

Develop FEWS model adaptors

Stage 1 - develop initial adaptors and

simple model linking (proof of concept)

Stage 2 - extend capability to capture

dynamic interactions (model coupling)

Stage 3 - incorporate more sophisticated

risk capability

Pilot system

Trial methods at two locations in close

liaison with end users

October 2014

Project Steps



Questions - nature of information

What information would help your decision making?

flood lead times, safest/quickest evacuation routes, knowing areas that can be

inundated to save other areas,

weak defences, defences at risk of breach, defences at risk of overtopping

probable flood extents, depths, velocities

risk to people (injuries, fatalities)

risk to critical infrastructure (power stations, transport, hospitals, etc.)

economic risk, environmental risk

Would you use probabilistic information?

Would you use uncertainty information?



Questions - nature of system

How would you want the system to operate?

e.g. in FEWS, stand-alone, ability to plug in wider models, web-link

What are the system requirements?

e.g. computational speed, robustness, data storage and management

How would you like the outputs to be communicated?

e.g. target audience, online, mobile phones

What functionality would help to make it even more useful to you?

e.g. mapping, visualisation, animations, inter-activeness re effectiveness of

measures


Please note:

This is an Office

2010 template.

Documents and

presentations should

NOT be edited as a

2003 file (ppt) as this

will distort the

template settings.

Howbery Park, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BA, United Kingdom www.hrwallingford.com

October 2014

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