Flexibilizing the Brazilian Power Sector: moving beyond large hydroplants with new technologies and

energy efficiency

Gilberto M Jannuzzi

University of Campinas

Content

• The context: the recent past and challenges

• Areas of current research

– Energy planning and policy

– Technology foresight studies

– Residential end-uses surveys and measurements

The energy scene

• Total energy demand is increasing faster thanGDP (2012-13: GDP growth 2.3% x Energy 4.5%)

• Power sector: historically hydro-dependent(70-80% annual consumption supplied byhydroelectricty)

• Climate changes: recurrent drought andchanging river flow

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

PR

IMA

Y E

NER

GY

PR

OD

UC

TIO

N (

Mte

p)

YEAR

Non-Renewable Energy

Renewable Energy

Total Primary Energy Production

PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION: 1970 to 2013

4Fonte: Balanço Energético Nacional – BEN (2014). Série Históricas Completas 1970 a 2013.

ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION: 1970 to 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

ELEC

TRIC

ITY

CO

NSU

MP

TIO

N (

Mte

p)

5

2013(44,40 Mtep) ou 516,3 TWh

Fonte: Balanço Energético Nacional – BEN (2014). Série Históricas Completas 1970 a 2013.

Power sector: Evolution of installed capacity MW: 1963 a 2014

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

100.000

110.000

120.000

130.000

140.000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

CA

PA

CID

AD

E EL

ÉTR

ICA

INST

ALA

DA

[M

W]

ANO

6

Fonte: Balanço Energético Nacional – BEN (2014); Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica – ANEEL (2014)

Fonte: Balanço Energético Nacional – BEN (2014)

COMPOSIÇÃO DA MATRIZ ELÉTRICA BRASILEIRA - 2013

7

72,2 %

11,6 %

7,8 %

4,5 %

2,7 %

2,5 % 1,1 %

HIDRÁULICA + IMPORTAÇÃO

GÁS NATURAL

BIOMASSA (BAGAÇO DE CANA E MADEIRA)

DERIVADOS DE PETRÓLEO

CARVÃO MINERAL

NUCLEAR

EÓLICA

ENERGIA ARMAZENADA EM RESERVATÓRIOS: 2000 a 2014

Fonte: Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico – ONS (2014) 8

0

25.000

50.000

75.000

100.000

125.000

150.000

175.000

200.000

225.000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Ener

gia

Híd

rica

méd

ia A

rmaz

enad

a [M

W/a

no

]

ANO

SIN

SE/CO

S

N

NE

8%

69%

18% 5% S

SE/CO

NE

N

9

Evolution of the energy stored in water resevoirs 2013-2022 (PNE 2030)

Fonte: Plano Nacional de Energia – PNE 2030

Analisando a previsão de capacidade de armazenamento dos reservatórios ao final do ano de 2022, percebe-se que, em termos percentuais, a elevação de 2% é bem inferior ao aumento da capacidade instalada de usinas hidrelétricas, de 40%.

Recent trends: official responses

• Diversification of the electricity supply base

– Suport mechanisms to disseminate

• Wind, Small Hydro, Biomass

• Solar PV only very recently

• Big hydro: limited storage capacity in plantsbuilt after 2003. Trend: build more runnoff-type hydroplants (to ensure “firm energy”)

• More reliance on thermal generation

Our approach

Renewable Energy Energy

Efficiency

Energy policies

Climate policies

Socio-economic delopment

policies

Science, Technology

and Innovation

policies

DSM, consumer behaviour

DEMAND-SIDE RESOURCES

End-use efficiency

Demand-response

Materials, Storage

technologies

INTERFACE TECHNOLOGIES

Smart appliances,

grids, meters

Energy sources

(primary and secndary)

SUPPLY-SIDE RESOURCESSupply side efficiency

Our studies

1. Energy future outlook studies: Modelling policies todisseminate distributed RE generation technologiesand energy efficiency. Market transformationpotentials and policies.

2. Energy technology assessment needs for mitigationand adaptation (including new storage technologies ). Domestic capability and technology transfer issues.

3. Residential consumer behaviour: end-use meteringand surveys (refrigerator, lighting and water heating). Low income energy efficiency programmes. Smartgrids in the residential sector

Jannuzzi, Gilberto de Martino, and Conrado Augustus de Melo. 2013. “Grid-ConnectedPhotovoltaic in Brazil: Policies and Potential Impacts for 2030.” Energy for SustainableDevelopment 17 (1): 40–46. doi:10.1016/j.esd.2012.10.010.

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Overview

Description

Table of Contents

Author Information

Reviews and Awards

Energy Poverty

Global Challenges and Local Solutions

Edited by Antoine Halff, Benjamin K. Sovacool, and

Jon Rozhon

A one-stop treatment of energy poverty, an issue

whose pivotal role in the fight for human

development and against poverty is only now being

recognised

A practical guide and reference work for

policymakers and practitioners in the field

Provides a fresh perspective on tomorrow's energy

challenges

Brings together diverse viewpoints and includes

contributions from experts and practitioners from

all over the world, including China, India, Brazil,

sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East

Includes chapters from authors at the cutting edge

of research: Fatih Birol, chief economist of the

International Energy Agency, Han Wenke, head of

China's Energy Research Institute, Nigel Bruce of

the World Health Organisation, and Jason Bordoff,

former senior advisor on energy to President

Barack Obama

Description

Table of Contents

Keyword, Author, ISBN, Tit le Search Advanced Search

Arts & Hum anit ies Dict ionaries & Reference Law Medicine & Health Science & Mathem at ics Social Sciences JournalsHigher

Educat ion

This edited volume looks at energy poverty, an issue whose pivotal role in the fight for

human development is only now being recognised by policymakers. Nearly one quarter of

humanity still lacks access to electricity. Close to one third rely on traditional fuels like

firewood and cow dung for cooking, at great cost to their health and welfare. While most

prevalent in parts of Africa and Asia, energy poverty is a global problem which concerns us

all. This book, which brings together economists, policymakers, entrepreneurs, and other

practitioners from all over the world, is dedicated to a single goal: finding a solution to this

haunting problem. It is part history, part economics, part political analysis, part business

case review, and part field handbook. Part One focuses on defining and measuring the

problem and benchmarking progress in solving it, an obvious prerequisite to any successful

energy-access policy. Part Two reviews past and current energy access programs, with an

eye towards finding out what worked and what didn't and what can be replicated elsewhere.

These case reviews are told as seen on the ground - China's experience by top Chinese

officials and Africa's by African regulators and scholars. Based in part on those cases, the

book's last, more forward-looking section aims to present practitioners with a tool kit, a

menu of options to speed up their efforts. The energy access agenda is gaining traction at a

time of rising concerns about climate change and resource constraints. This book shows that

bringing modern energy to those who lack it not just a moral imperative, but will likely

benefit the world as a whole without harming the environment or unduly stretching finite

resources.

Part I : Tak ing Stock of Energy Poverty

Introduction: The End of Energy Poverty: Pathways to Development, Antoine Halff, Benjam in

Sovacool, and Jon Rozhon

1. Achieving Energy For All Will Not Cost The Earth, Fat ih Birol

2. Defining, Measuring, and Tackling Energy Poverty, Benjam in Sovacool

3. The Development Impact of Energy Access, Douglas F. Barnes, Hussain Sam ad, Cesar

Calderon, and Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee

De Melo, Conrado Augustus, Gilberto de Martino Jannuzzi, and Aline Ferreira Tripodi. 2013. “Evaluating Public Policy Mechanisms for Climate Change Mitigation in Brazilian Buildings Sector.” Energy Policy 61 (October): 1200–1211. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.056.

Jannuzzi, G. M., P. H. M. Sant’Ana, and R. D. M. Gomes. 2009. Integração de Agenda Mudanças Climáticas: Energia E Desenvolvimento. Brasília: CGEE -Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos.

Jannuzzi, Gilberto M., P. H. M. Sant’Ana, and R. D. M. Gomes. 2008. Energias Do Futuro. Brasília: CGEE - Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos. http://gilbertomartino.wordpress.com/2009/07/15/energias-do-futuro-relatorio-final/.

Jannuzzi, G. M., P. H. M. Sant’Ana, and R. D. M. Gomes. 2010. Oportunidades Para a Difusão de Tecnologias de Energia Limpas: Subsídios Para a Participação Nacional Na Conferência de Mudança Do Clima. Brasília: CGEE - Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos.

Energy Technology Foresight, Needsand Domestic Capability Status

Fonte: IEA 2008

Gilberto M Jannuzzi, and Marcelo K Poppe. 2011. “Desenvolvimento, Cooperação e Transferência de Tecnologias Energéticas de Baixa Emissão.” In “Mudança do clima no Brasil: aspectos econômicos, sociais e regulatórios“, 195-210. Brasília: IPEA. Also in English: Development, ” Climate Change in Brazil: Economic, Social and Regulatory Aspects“, Editors: Seroa da Motta, R., Hargrave, J.; Luedemann, G.; and Gutierrez, B. S., Brasília, Ipea, 2011

Submitted to Energy Policy 2014Nonconventional renewable energy governance in Brazil: lessons to learn from the German experience

*Conrado Augustus de Melo a, Gilberto de Martino Jannuzzi b, Sergio Valdir Bajay c

a State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), School of Mechanical Engineering (FEM), P.O. box 6122, Campinas, SP, 13083-860, Brazilb State University of Campinas (UNICAMP) and International Energy Initiative (IEI-LA), P.O. box 6122, Campinas, SP, 13083-970, Brazilc State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Interdisciplinary Center for Energy Planning (NIPE), P.O. box 6166, Campinas, SP, 13083-896, Brazil

Our studies

1. Energy future outlook studies: Modelling policies todisseminate distributed RE generation technologiesand energy efficiency. Market transformationpotentials and policies.

2. Energy technology assessment needs for mitigationand adaptation (including new storage technologies ). Domestic capability and technology transfer issues.

3. Residential consumer behaviour: end-use meteringand surveys (refrigerator, lighting and water heating). Low income energy efficiency programmes. Smartgrids in the residential sector

Researchers involved

• UNICAMP– G. M Jannuzzi, S. Bajay, A. Furtado, E. Camilo, A. Causo

• CGEE– M. Poppe

• University of Bochum– Prof. C. Pielow, I. Heitmann

• International Energy Initiative– R. Gomes, C. Melo, J Paccola, P Santana

• Former Master student initiated a Solar PV installationStartUp in the University StartUp Incubator

THANK YOU

NOPA PROGRAM

Supporters

sources

26

1. Balanço Energético Nacional 2014 - BEN (2014). “Ano-base 2013”.

2. Empresa de Pesquisa Energética - EPE: Séries Históricas Completas – Capítulo 1 Análise Energética e Dados Agregados 1970 a 2013.

3. Plano Decenal de Expansão de Energia 2022. EPE e MME, 2013.

4. Plano Nacional de Energia 2030. EPE e MME, 2007.

5. Estudos de Demanda de Energia: Nota Técnica DEA 13/14 – Demanda 2050. EPE e MME, 2014.

6. Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica: Consulta ao Banco de Dados de Geração. ANEEL, 2014.

7. Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico: Consulta ao Banco de Dados de Operação. ONS, 2014.