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Flake Graphite: Supply, Demand, Prices - GMP Securities
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Transcript of Flake Graphite: Supply, Demand, Prices - GMP Securities
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Flake Graphite Basics – Supply, Demand Prices GMP Securities Workshop, London, 10 June 2014
Natural Graphite Snapshot – Supply
• Global Production 2011: 1.01m • Global Production 2012: 850,00 tonnes • Global Production 2013: 700,000 tonnes
• Flake Graphite Production 2013: 375,000 tonnes
Supply
53%46%
1%
% Global Output
Flake Amorphous Vein
#1 Producer: • Heilongjiang Aoyu Energy, China• 70‐80,000 tpa capacity
#1 Producer (non‐Chinese): • Nacional de Grafite, Brazil• 72,000 tpa capacity
Note: There are no pure play graphite companies that are public
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
• Purest form in nature • Large single crystals• Purity: 95 – 98% C• Occurs in large lumps• <1% of world output
• Sri Lanka – world’s only mine
Natural Graphite Snapshot – Supply
Vein Graphite
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Natural Graphite Snapshot – SupplyFlake Graphite
• High quality, quite common• Occurs as small flakes, specs• Purity: 85‐95% C•49% of world graphite output
Top flake producers 1. China 2. Brazil3. India4. Canada5. Norway6. Madasgacar7. Zimbabwe8. Ukraine9. Czech Republic10. Russia
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Natural Graphite Snapshot – SupplyAmorphous Graphite • Low quality• Associated with coal mines (meta‐coal)• Purity: 70‐85% C• Biggest producers: China, Mexico• Around half of world graphite output
Amorphous producers 1. China2. Mexico 3. Austria 4. Turkey
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Natural Graphite Snapshot – Demand
Demand for flake graphite
52%
23%
22%
3%
Flake graphite demand in 2013 (tonnes)
Refractories, Foundries, Crucibles Batteries Industrials Other
2 Markets that dominate discussion: • Refractories (volume market) vs Batteries (growth market)
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Natural Graphite Snapshot – Prices
$2,200‐2,500
$1,300‐1,500
$900‐1,200
Natural Graphite Snapshot – Prices
• Prices are set in private contracts between buyer and seller• Traded in tonnes as a concentrated powder • Shipped in bags in containers, CIF & FOB • Price volatility for the last 5 years since 2009 global recession
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Flake Graphite – Supply
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
China Brazil India Canada Other
% of Global Production (375,000 tpa in 2013)
Production
Other: Norway, Madagascar, Russia, Ukraine, Zimbabwe
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Flake Graphite – New Supply
• Exploration boom in 2010 • Led by Canada (TSX‐V listed) • A later surge by Australia companies (ASX listed)
• Hotspots of activity • Canada – Quebec • Canada – Ontario • Madagascar • Mozambique • Australia
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
2010: 7 Exploration Projects / Companies (Canada only)
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
2012: 80 Exploration Projects (Canada only)
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Flake Graphite – New Supply Key factors in evaluating a flake graphite project:
1. Grade • Not necessarily King, but key to economics• Anything above 6% is better than most mines today • Anything above 10% is better than majority of mines in
China
2. Flake Distribution / Footprint • Higher proportions of medium and large flake = critical • Fines (<150 mesh) notoriously difficult to sell
3. Volume • A small market• Average mine size today is 20‐30,000 tpa• Not always about volume, large volume mines will need
big buyers
4. Offtakes / Partnerships / Industry Contacts • Close contact with key buyers can make or break a mine• Those companies that develop personal relationships =
stronger
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Flake Graphite – Demand
Impurities
• Particles attached to the outside of the flake
• Taken from the surrounding rock
• Removed by flotation
In between stacks (intercalated)
Removed by chemical or thermal purification
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Mechanical
Impurities include: • Ash • Sulphur • Iron
Barriers to new mining projects (BP)
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Flake Graphite – Demand
Refractories• #1 market for flake graphite
• 38% of demand
• No substitutes
• Steel only
Graphite grades used:
• Large & Medium Flake
• ~ 94% C
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Flake Graphite – Demand
Batteries• #2 market for flake graphite
• 23% of demand
• Substitutes: Synthetic graphite• Cost issues
• Strongest growth
Graphite grades used:
• Spherical graphite • 5‐15 micron • 99.95% C
• Derived from flake graphite
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Flake Graphite – Demand shocks
Tesla Motors Gigafactory
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Trends – China consolidation
December 2013: Shandong, China ordered to halt flake graphite production
April 2014: Heilongjiang, China announces plans to clean up graphite industry
May 2014: 40% of Shandong’s graphite producers remain offline
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Trends ‐ China consolidation
Shandong = 10% global output, 20% China output
Heilongjiang = 29% global output, 45% China output
Supply at risk:
Total minimum cuts in China: 40,000 tpa (18%)Total maximum cuts in China: 90,000 tpa (41%)
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Trends – Demand shocks
Tesla Motors’ Plan
• World’s battery production in one plant
• To drive cost of lithium‐ion batteries down by 30%
• To drive cost of EVs down
• To spark mass uptake of EVs
Tesla Motors Gigafactory
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Trends – Demand shocks
Tesla Motors Gigafactory – critical mineral demand
Gigafactory at capacity (2020)
• Flake graphite demand• 80‐126,000 tonnes/year• 33‐50,000 tonnes/year
spherical graphite • 6 new mines
• Lithium demand • 20‐30,000 tonnes/year
• Cobalt demand • 5‐7,000 tonnes/year
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Trends – Graphene
• Graphene = the first isolated one‐dimensional material• One layer of graphite • Graphene is a technology play, not a graphite one• Will not consume major volumes of flake graphite • Value in extensive research to commercialise & find markets
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
New mines will be needed regardless of growth
Supply Demand > Shutdowns in China > Batteries emerging
> Old, small mines elsewhere > Global recovery in industrial markets expected
> Brazil internally focused / not expanding (yet)
> Major Projects / New Demand: Tesla Motors
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
Supply / demand deficit
Simon Moores, [email protected] (Twitter: @sdmoores)/ Andy Miller [email protected] (Twitter: amiller_indmin)
5%
‐5%
‐15%‐20%
‐25%
‐20%
‐15%
‐10%
‐5%
0%
5%
10%
2013 2014 2015 2016
> Assuming no new supply