FISH AND SHELLFISH UK, DECEMBER...

FISH AND SHELLFISHUK, DECEMBER 2015

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v 101013 Single

FISH AND SHELLFISH, UK - DECEMBER 2015

© Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved.

ContentsOVERVIEW ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 6

Covered in this report ..................................................................................................................................................7

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................................. 8

The market ..................................................................................................................................................................9Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail sales of fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20 ................................................................................................ 9Figure 2: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20 ..................................................................................... 9Figure 3: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20 ................................................................................... 10Figure 4: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20 ................................................................................. 10

Market factors ............................................................................................................................................................10Companies, brands and innovation ........................................................................................................................... 11The consumer ........................................................................................................................................................... 11

Figure 5: Frequency of eating fish and shellfish, by format, September 2015 ............................................................................................... 11Figure 6: Occasions for eating fish/shellfish, by type, September 2015 ........................................................................................................ 12Figure 7: Perceived importance of factors when buying fish/shellfish, September 2015 ............................................................................... 12Figure 8: Attitudes towards fish/shellfish, September 2015 ........................................................................................................................... 13Figure 9: Selected qualities associated with different formats of fish/shellfish, September 2015 ................................................................. 14Figure 10: Further selected qualities associated with different formats of fish/shellfish, September 2015 .................................................. 14

What we think ............................................................................................................................................................15

ISSUES & INSIGHTS .......................................................................................................................................................................16

Providing more recipe ideas can help to build perceptions of fish/shellfish being versatile ......................................17NPD can meet the strong demand for healthier coated fish options .........................................................................18British coastal origin could provide important standout as sustainability has lost its power as a differentiator .........19

THE MARKET ...................................................................................................................................................................................20

What you need to know .............................................................................................................................21Fish consumption is below the recommended level ..................................................................................................21Rise in real incomes is benefiting the fish market .....................................................................................................21Chilled fish/shellfish continues to grow its share ......................................................................................................21Deflation in fresh fish has not eroded value growth ..................................................................................................21Frozen fish has suffered the biggest losses ..............................................................................................................21Falling prices buoy sales in ambient .........................................................................................................................21

Market size and segmentation ..................................................................................................................22Overall sales are broadly stagnate in 2015 ...............................................................................................................22

Figure 11: UK retail value and volume sales of fish and shellfish, 2010-20 .................................................................................................. 22Chilled fish/shellfish continues to grow its share ......................................................................................................23

Figure 12: UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, by segment, 2010-20 ................................................................................................. 23Figure 13: UK retail volume sales of fish and shellfish, by segment, 2010-20 .............................................................................................. 23

Chilled expected to continue to grow ahead of the market ......................................................................................24Figure 14: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20 ................................................................................. 24Figure 15: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, by volume, 2010-20 .............................................................................. 24

Frozen fish has suffered the biggest losses ..............................................................................................................25Figure 16: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20 ................................................................................. 25Figure 17: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by volume, 2010-20 .............................................................................. 25

Falling prices buoy sales in ambient .........................................................................................................................26Figure 18: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, by value, 2010-20 ............................................................................... 26Figure 19: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, by volume, 2010-20 ............................................................................ 26



Market drivers .............................................................................................................................................27Growing confidence with scratch cooking bodes well for fish ...................................................................................27However, convenience still appeals ..........................................................................................................................27Deflation has impacted the fish market .....................................................................................................................27

Figure 20: RPI – Total food, fresh fish, fish and poultry, January 2009-October 2015 .................................................................................. 27Rise in real incomes is benefiting the fish market .....................................................................................................28Fish consumption is below the recommended level ..................................................................................................28

KEY PLAYERS ...................................................................................................................................................................................29

What you need to know .............................................................................................................................30Premiumisation sweeps across the fish/shellfish market ..........................................................................................30A surge in frozen launches in 2015 ...........................................................................................................................30The competition heats up in oily fish .........................................................................................................................30Own-brand continues to dominate chilled seafood ...................................................................................................30John West extends its lead in ambient ......................................................................................................................30Princes is hit by Tesco delisting .................................................................................................................................30Birds Eye gains volume share, at the expense of value ............................................................................................30Adspend falls from 2013 high ....................................................................................................................................30

Launch activity and innovation .................................................................................................................31Premiumisation sweeps across the fish/shellfish market ..........................................................................................31A surge in frozen launches in 2015 ...........................................................................................................................31

Figure 21: New product launches in the UK processed fish market, by storage type, 2011-15 .................................................................... 31Supermarkets lead innovation ...................................................................................................................................32

Figure 22: New product launches in the UK processed fish market, by company, 2011-15 ......................................................................... 32Young’s maintains its position as the most active brand in terms of NPD .................................................................32Birds Eye is close behind ..........................................................................................................................................33High level of launch activity from John West in 2015 ................................................................................................33The competition heats up in oily fish .........................................................................................................................34Ethical claims rise ......................................................................................................................................................34

Figure 23: New product launches in the UK processed fish market, by claim, 2011-15 .............................................................................. 34

Market share ...............................................................................................................................................35Own-brand continues to dominate chilled seafood ...................................................................................................35Saucy Fish Co goes online ........................................................................................................................................35Young’s expands Funky Fish Kitchen ........................................................................................................................35John West extends its lead in ambient ......................................................................................................................36

Figure 24: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK ambient seafood market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15 ................. 36Princes is hit by Tesco delisting .................................................................................................................................37Birds Eye gains volume share, at the expense of value ............................................................................................37

Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen seafood market, by value and volume, 2013/14 and 2014/15 ................... 37Price rises take their toll on Youngs’ volume sales ....................................................................................................38

Brand communication and promotion .....................................................................................................39Adspend falls from 2013 high ....................................................................................................................................39

Figure 26: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on fish and shellfish, 2011-15 ................ 39Birds Eye extends its lead in adpend in 2014 ..........................................................................................................39

Figure 27: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on fish and shellfish, by top 15 advertisers (sorted by 2014), 2011-15* ......................................................................................................................................................... 40

Iceland becomes the top spender in 2015 ................................................................................................................41Lidl invests heavily in advertising in 2015 .................................................................................................................41Aldi pits its fish fingers against leading brand in 2014 ...............................................................................................41Young’s unveils new TV ads for Gastro range in 2015 ..............................................................................................41NMR Methodology .....................................................................................................................................................41

THE CONSUMER ............................................................................................................................................................................42

What you need to know .............................................................................................................................43Similar levels of usage across different formats ........................................................................................................43



Dinner is the most likely occasion for fish/shellfish ..................................................................................................43Confidence in cooking and speed is key ...................................................................................................................43Oily fish have the edge over white fish ......................................................................................................................43A minority look for indications of sustainability ..........................................................................................................43People are willing to avoid endangered fish/shellfish ................................................................................................43Demand for healthier coated fish options ..................................................................................................................43Many consumers are hungry for more recipe suggestions .......................................................................................43Plain fish has the strongest connotations with being nutritious ................................................................................43

Usage of fish and shellfish ........................................................................................................................44Similar levels of usage across different formats… ....................................................................................................44

Figure 28: Frequency of eating fish and shellfish, by format, September 2015 ............................................................................................. 44Socio-economic factors influence choice of format ...................................................................................................44Dinner is the most likely occasion for fish/shellfish ..................................................................................................45

Figure 29: Occasions for eating fish/shellfish, by type, September 2015 ...................................................................................................... 45Only tinned is driven by lunchtime usage ..................................................................................................................45

Choice factors .............................................................................................................................................46Confidence in cooking is key .....................................................................................................................................46

Figure 30: Perceived importance of factors when buying fish/shellfish, September 2015 ............................................................................. 46Oily fish have the edge over white fish ......................................................................................................................47A minority look for marks of sustainability .................................................................................................................47Scope to push British fish ..........................................................................................................................................47

Attitudes towards fish and shellfish .........................................................................................................48People are willing to avoid endangered fish/shellfish ................................................................................................48

Figure 31: Attitudes towards fish/shellfish, September 2015 ......................................................................................................................... 48Demand for healthier coated fish options ..................................................................................................................49Resealable packaging can add value ........................................................................................................................49Many consumers are hungry for more recipe suggestions .......................................................................................49

Qualities associated with different formats of fish .................................................................................50Methodology ..............................................................................................................................................................50Fish benefits from overall positive perceptions .........................................................................................................50

Figure 32: Correspondence analysis – Fish and shellfish, September 2015 ................................................................................................. 50Figure 33: Selected qualities associated with different formats of fish/shellfish, September 2015 ............................................................... 51Figure 34: Further selected qualities associated with different formats of fish/shellfish, September 2015 .................................................. 51

Plain fish has the strongest connotations with being nutritious ................................................................................52Frozen breaded fish and tinned fish/shellfish stand out on convenience ..................................................................52Cured fish has the most sophisticated image ............................................................................................................52

APPENDIX ........................................................................................................................................................................................53

Data sources, abbreviations and supporting information ......................................................................54Data sources .............................................................................................................................................................54Fan chart forecast .....................................................................................................................................................54Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................................................54Consumer research methodology .............................................................................................................................54

Market size and forecast ............................................................................................................................55Figure 35: Forecast of UK retail sales of fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2015-20 ............................................ 55Figure 36: Forecast of UK retail sales of fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by volume, 2015-20 .......................................... 55Figure 37: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2015-20 ................................. 55Figure 38: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by volume, 2015-20 ............................. 56Figure 39: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2015-20 ................................. 56Figure 40: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by volume, 2015-20 .............................. 56Figure 41: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by value, 2015-20 ............................... 57Figure 42: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, best and worst case forecast, by volume, 2015-20 ............................ 57



RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................................................61

UK Research Methodology ........................................................................................................................62Sampling and weighting ............................................................................................................................................62Face to Face Surveys ..............................................................................................................................................62Definitions ..................................................................................................................................................................63Brand & Social Media Research ...............................................................................................................................64Trade research ..........................................................................................................................................................64Desk research ...........................................................................................................................................................64Statistical Forecasting ...............................................................................................................................................64The Mintel fan chart ...................................................................................................................................................65

OVERVIEW

FISH AND SHELLFISH, UK - DECEMBER 2015 8


There is expected to be no great movement in the overall market size of fish and shellfish in 2015. While volume sales are forecast to slip by 0.6% year on year, value sales are expected to edge up by 0.5% to £3,409 million. However, this masks contrasting performances between the different formats. While frozen is struggling, chilled fish/shellfish – which dominates spend – continues to post strong value growth, and is expected to be the main beneficiary of the rise in consumer spending. Meanwhile, a significant drop in average prices within the ambient segment has helped to keep volume sales from falling, but at the expense of a 6% decline in value.

Covered in this report

This report discusses the retail sales of seafood for in-home consumption. Seafood is defined for the purposes of this report to include fish (fin fish) and shellfish (including crustaceans), whether chilled, frozen or ambient. This report includes plain, as well as processed and ready-to-cook products.

The word ‘ambient’ is used to refer to the segment traditionally dominated by canned fish, which now also includes ambient fish in tubs, pouches and jars.

Excluded from this report (with the exception of Defra figures for average fish consumption) are seafood-based ready meals and sales of seafood through the catering sector, eg fish and chip shops. Sales of sushi are also excluded.

The market size in this report differs from the Mintel Market Sizes market size for the category because the Mintel Market Sizes figure includes sales of ready meals and meal centres, which this report does not include.

It also differs from the Mintel Market Sizes market size for the category because the Mintel Market Sizes figure excludes sales of chilled plain whole, filleted or portioned fish, which this report includes.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY



THAT FISH IS RARELY SEEN AS VERSATILE IS HOLDING THE MARKET BACK FROM CAPITALISING FULLY ON THE SCRATCH COOKING TREND. ENCOURAGING, HOWEVER, IS CONSUMERS’ INTEREST IN MORE RECIPE SUGGESTIONS FOR OILY FISH AND FOR USING FISH IN ETHNIC-STYLE DISHES, HIGHLIGHTING RECIPE INSPIRATION AS A ROUTE TO DRIVING MORE EXPERIMENTATION IN COOKING WITH FISH.”

Emma Clifford, Senior Food Analyst

The market

There is expected to be no great movement in the overall market size of fish and shellfish in 2015. Volume sales are forecast to slip by 0.6% year on year to 361 million kg while value sales are expected to edge up by 0.5% to £3,409 million. However, this masks contrasting performances between the different formats, as well as different patterns in terms of changes in average prices.

The value of the total market is expected to grow by 10% over the next five years to reach £3,736 million.

FIGURE 1: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF FISH AND SHELLFISH, BY VALUE, 2010-20

Chilled

Increasing its dominance in the market, chilled fish/shellfish has increased its share of spend on these products from 57% in 2010 to almost two thirds (64%) in 2015. Volume sales have grown by 8% over the last five years, while rising prices have pushed up value sales by 30% to £2,194 million. Innovation in convenience-driven formats over the last five years has provided a boost to this segment.

While there has been some deflation in the retail price of fresh fish in 2014 and 2015, the average price in the market has continued to edge up, indicating a shift towards added-value products.

There is no end in sight for the growth of chilled/fish shellfish. Value sales are forecast to rise by 16% over 2015-20 to reach £2,541 million, while volume sales are anticipated to see growth of 13% to 189 million kg.

FIGURE 2: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF CHILLED FISH AND SHELLFISH, BY VALUE, 2010-20

Source: Based on IRI/Mintel




Frozen

Frozen fish/shellfish continues to lose out to chilled, despite the lower price points. Volume sales have fallen by almost a fifth (19%) over the last five years, while the value of the segment has dropped 12%. The struggles of this segment relate to a less healthy image of the breaded products which make up a large part of it.

FIGURE 3: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF FROZEN FISH AND SHELLFISH, BY VALUE, 2010-20

Going forward, the rise in consumer spending is likely to see more people trade up out of frozen fish/shellfish, and the downward trajectory in sales is set to continue. Mintel expects that the value of the segment will fall by a further 11% to £616 million, with volumes dropping by 16% to 92 million kg.

Ambient

FIGURE 4: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF AMBIENT FISH AND SHELLFISH, BY VALUE, 2010-20

Average prices rose rapidly in the segment between 2010 and 2013, with a knock-on effect on volume sales. However, this trend came to an end in 2014, and prices fell notably in 2015. This is mainly attributable to the rife discounting in the tinned fish/shellfish segment. This has helped to buoy volume sales, these staying flat at 83 million kg in 2015, but value sales dropped by 6% year on year.

A move away from promotions would help to build value back into the market, with added value features such as resealable packaging perhaps helping in this respect.

The market is not expected to bounce back over the next five years. As with frozen fish, the rise in consumer spending is likely to see people trade up to chilled fish options. Volume sales are expected to dip by 6%, while value sales are anticipated to rise by 10% to £580 million. However, the volatility in prices, and the level to which this affects volume sales, makes this segment quite unpredictable.

Market factors

Fish consumption is below the recommended level

It is widely accepted that a healthy diet should include at least two portions of fish per week, with 70% of fish/shellfish eaters in agreement with this (see Fish and Shellfish – UK, November 2014). However, the average weekly consumption of fish/

shellfish per person comes to just half of this recommended level.

In order to capitalise on the significant growth potential here, operators need to provide more support to help consumers to eat two portions of fish per week.

Rise in real incomes is benefiting the fish market

The prolonged squeeze on real incomes created a challenging retail landscape for the food market, but particularly for comparatively high-cost products such as fish. The rise in real incomes over the last year therefore has been good news for the chilled fish market, and has paved the way for premiumisation. The predicted increase in consumer spending over the next five years should see more people trade back up to these options.

Growing confidence in scratch cooking bodes well for fish

With three in 10 (29%) consumers cooking from scratch more compared to a year ago, compared to just 8% who have cut back, according to Prepared Meals Review – UK, May 2015, the scratch cooking trend appears to be gathering pace. This is likely to be contributing to the growth currently being enjoyed in the chilled segment of the fish/shellfish market.

People not feeling confident in preparing and cooking with fish/shellfish may have held the market back to a certain extent. Therefore, rising proficiency in scratch cooking and a desire to expand repertoires and experiment with different dishes should see this barrier diminish.





Companies, brands and innovation

John West is one of the few major branded players to perform well

Own-label continues to dominate chilled seafood. The Saucy Fish Co with its fish and sauce products and Young’s with fish fillets and ready-to-eat products are among a handful of sizeable branded operators present in chilled seafood. The former has been a success story since its entrance to the market in 2010, inspired similar added-value NPD from its rivals.

The ambient seafood market remains a duopoly, with John West and Princes together accounting for nearly £6 in every £10 spent on the segment. While the two stood almost neck and neck in 2013/14, John West leaped ahead in 2014/15, bucking the falling sales trend seen in the segment, helped by NPD. Price cuts have helped Princes to maintain volume sales, however, this has taken its toll on its value sales, which fell sharply.

Birds Eye held its top position in the frozen fish segment in 2014/15 despite a slight loss of market share by value, continuing the downward trend seen by the brand in 2013/14. The group pointed to a tough retail environment driven by heavy discounting by retailers as the cause for a fall in overall sales according to reports in July 2015. Its Inspirations range however, launched earlier in 2014, was hailed as one of the strongest new products of the year.

Premiumisation sweeps across the fish/shellfish market

Premiumisation has been a core trend in innovation during the last 12 months and is evident across all of the fish segments. Meanwhile “economy” claims fell to their

lowest ebb in 2014 since at least 2011. This reflects efforts by companies to capitalise on consumers’ increasing ability to trade up amid the rise in consumer spending.

There has also been a surge in launches of both frozen products and tinned oily fish in 2015.

Adspend falls from 2013 high

Ad spend in the fish and shellfish market leaped ahead in 2013, subsequently falling by a third in 2014 as it returned back to the levels typical in the market in recent years. Birds Eye was mainly responsible for sharp rise in adspend in 2013, as it stepped up the support for its Fish Fusions and fish fingers.

The company increased its adspend again in 2014, though by only a moderate 4%. However, this was not enough to make up for the cutbacks in spend by the likes of Young’s, Saucy Fish and Tesco, which saw overall adspend in this market fall sharply.

The consumer

Similar levels of usage across different formats

Frozen, ambient and chilled fish enjoy fairly high levels of usage; all are eaten at least once a week by approximately three in 10 UK adults.

Frozen fish just has the edge over chilled in usage frequency. The lower cost of these products and their longer shelf life can make these a more accessible option for day to day consumption. That parents with children aged 6-12 and consumers from large households are the most regular users within the segments illustrates the important role these products have for family meals, fish fingers being a notable example.

Given that chilled fish and shellfish is the most expensive format, regular usage of these options is heavily skewed towards ABs and consumers who describe their finances as “healthy”.

FIGURE 5: FREQUENCY OF EATING FISH AND SHELLFISH, BY FORMAT, SEPTEMBER 2015

"How often, if at all, have you eaten the following types of fish and shellfish at home or as part of a packed lunch in the last 3 months?"

Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+

Source: Lightspeed GMI/Mintel



Dinner is the most likely occasion for fish/shellfish

Fish is mainly eaten for dinner, and this is particularly pronounced for frozen breaded fish/shellfish, with the extra cooking time likely to be a factor in this. However, despite requiring no cooking time, chilled and cured ready-to-eat options are more likely to be eaten for dinner than lunch.

Tinned is the only format which has its highest level of usage for lunch, indicating that breaking further into dinner occasions presents growth opportunities. The major branded players in this market have already made strides towards this goal through NPD.

FIGURE 6: OCCASIONS FOR EATING FISH/SHELLFISH, BY TYPE, SEPTEMBER 2015

"Which, if any, of the following occasions have you eaten the following types of fish/shellfish in the last month?"

Confidence in cooking and speed is key

Feeling comfortable and confident with cooking a certain type or format of fish/shellfish is of paramount importance as is being quick to cook; the latter relating to the wider appeal of fairly speedy dinners.

Significantly more people look for fish which is high in Omega 3 (47%) than look for options which are low in fat/calories (29%), indicating a high level of awareness of the health benefits of Omega-3 which oily fish can provide. Furthermore, oily fish is widely believed to be good for skin health.

Only just over a third (35%) of fish/shellfish buyers seek out products which are labelled as sustainable. That this isn’t higher relates to the fact that this has become an expected attribute; 76% of users expect retailers to ensure all their fish/shellfish is sustainably sourced.

FIGURE 7: PERCEIVED IMPORTANCE OF FACTORS WHEN BUYING FISH/SHELLFISH, SEPTEMBER 2015

"Which, if any, of the following factors are most important to you when buying fish/shellfish?"

Base: 1,253, 1516 and 1,356 internet users aged 16+ who have eaten chilled fish/shellfish, frozen fish/shellfish

and not chilled or frozen shellfish respectively


Base: 1,385 internet users aged 16+ who buy fish/shellfish




People are willing to avoid endangered fish/shellfish

Highlighting a willingness among consumers to ‘do their bit’, 63% of users would avoid eating species of fish/shellfish if they knew they were endangered.

FIGURE 8: ATTITUDES TOWARDS FISH/SHELLFISH, SEPTEMBER 2015

"To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?"

This suggests there is more scope to raise awareness of which fish/shellfish consumers should avoid to lessen pressure on stocks.

Operators need to respond to the high level of demand for more suggestions

of ways to use oily fish in dishes and for using fish in ethnic-style dishes. The fact that people would like more guidance is likely to stem from most not associating fish with being versatile, with scope to overturn this perception through providing more recipe inspiration.

Base: 1,701 internet users aged 16+ who eat fish/shellfish

(a) eg a tub you can put in the fridge

(b) eg with a wholegrain crumb, lower in fat

(c) eg salmon, mackerel etc

(d) eg on packaging, on brand websites




Fish benefits from overall positive perceptions

Signalling an overall favourable perception of fish in its various formats, consumers are more likely to have positive associations with fish than negative associations. For example, only a small

FIGURE 9: SELECTED QUALITIES ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT FORMATS OF FISH/SHELLFISH, SEPTEMBER 2015

minority of consumers see fish in any format as being unhealthy, low quality, boring or old fashioned.

Chilled, unflavoured fish stands out as having the most nutritious image, which is likely to be directly linked to this format entailing minimal processing. However, as

soon as any extra processing is involved in the preparation of fish, consumers’ trust in these formats being nutritious drops. This illustrates a need for companies to raise awareness of how smoked, tinned and frozen fish still delivers on nutritional excellence.



FIGURE 10: FURTHER SELECTED QUALITIES ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT FORMATS OF FISH/SHELLFISH, SEPTEMBER 2015





What we think

There remains huge growth potential in the fish market. Despite widespread recognition that a healthy diet should include two portions of fish per week, the average adult is currently eating just half of that. Therefore any steps operators can take to remind consumers at POS (Point of Sale) about this goal could help to convert this awareness into action. A similar approach to that used on packaging to flag up products’ contribution to consumers’ ‘five-a-day’ could work well here.

Both the rise in consumer spending over the next five years and the scratch cooking trend also bodes well for chilled fish. However, that fish is not widely seen as versatile might hold the market back from reaching its full potential. Encouraging, however, is consumers’ interest in more recipe suggestions for oily fish and for using fish in ethnic-style dishes.

This puts the onus on operators in this market to build awareness of recipe inspiration as much as possible to overcome these hurdles and encourage

consumers to experiment with new dishes if they are to capitalise fully on the scratch cooking trend. Recipes are frequently featured online, but this may not be the best way to get these ideas onto consumers’ radar. On-pack recipes, recipe cards in-store and ongoing ‘recipe of the week/month’ style campaigns in-store may be more effective. Here, tie-ups with other ingredients, possibly co-located in-store and offering shoppers an overall meal discount, would help to drive visibility.

ISSUES & INSIGHTS



Providing more recipe ideas can help to build perceptions of fish/shellfish being versatile

The facts

• Consumers who associate fish with being versatile are in the minority. Chilled plain fish has the most versatile image, but even for this format only 28% of adults deem this to be versatile.

• 57% of fish/shellfish users would like more recipe suggestions on different dishes using oily fish (eg salmon, mackerel etc). This rises to 67% of 25-34s.

• 52% of fish/shellfish users would like to see more suggestions on ways of cooking fish/shellfish in ethnic-style dishes (eg on packaging, on brand websites), climbing to 61% of 25-34s.

• The scratch cooking trend continues to gain momentum; three in 10 (29%) consumers are cooking from scratch more compared to a year ago, compared to just 8% who have cut back on scratch cooking (see Prepared Meals Review – UK, May 2015)

The implications

Despite consumers having a wealth of sources for recipes at their disposal, there remains strong demand for more recipe suggestions when it comes to cooking with fish. This indicates that many people may remain unsure about cooking with fish, specifically when it comes to oily fish and using fish in ethnic dishes, reflected in consumers’ doubts about the versatility of fish. The typically strong flavour of oily fish such as mackerel may deter consumers from experimenting with it, meanwhile seafood (other than prawns) is notably rarer in the main ethnic cuisines eaten in the UK, with chicken, beef and lamb typically the go-to options here.

This puts the onus on operators in this market to build awareness of recipe inspiration as much as possible to overcome these hurdles and encourage consumers to experiment with new dishes if they are to capitalise fully on the scratch cooking trend. Recipes are frequently featured online, but this may not be the best way to get these ideas onto consumers’ radar. On-pack recipes, recipe cards in-store and ongoing ‘recipe of the week/month’ style campaigns in-store may be more effective.

Here, tie-ups with other ingredients, possibly be co-located in-store or offering shoppers an overall meal discount, would help to drive visibility.

While recipes on fish packaging should chime with consumers, there is also scope to bring more shoppers to the category through fish recipes featured on jars of ethnic cooking sauces or pastes. This would encourage people to think of fish when they are planning an ethnic meal who would not otherwise have done so.

Encouraging people to send in their recipe ideas and upload photos of their dishes on social media, perhaps through recipe competitions, could also provide an effective means of encouraging experimentation with fish. This would tap into Mintel’s Collective Intelligence trend which looks at how the market/consumer relationship has evolved from monologue to dialogue to roundtable ideation.

There could also be scope for more brands to follow the example of the Birds Eye Mix Up Your Menu campaign and use vloggers to visually demonstrate to people how to create dishes.



NPD can meet the strong demand for healthier coated fish options

The facts

• Only 17% of adults associate frozen breaded fish with being nutritious, while 29% see it as being processed.

• 58% of fish/shellfish eaters would like to see a greater number of healthier coated/breaded fish options made available, rising to 71% of mothers of under-16s.

• Volume sales in the processed frozen fish/shellfish market declined by a fifth (19%) over 2010-15.

The implications

Frozen breaded fish is seen as the least nutritious format of fish, relating to its more processed image and many people’s more positive associations with fresh produce than frozen overall. Yet being seen to be nutritious is important for these products given that they are often part of family meals, this reflected in the strong demand for a wider availability of healthier coated fish products among mothers with under-16s.

Wholegrain coatings provide a simple route to improving the health credentials of these products, and Birds Eye unveiled Wholegrain Fish Fingers in spring 2015. As well as there being opportunities for other products to follow suit, companies can also go further down the healthiness route through looking to other health-boosting ingredients for fish coatings. There is a wealth of recipes online for homemade healthier fish coating, for example ones made with oats, quinoa or even chia seeds, which could also translate into NPD in the retail arena.

As well as the well-established health attributes of such ingredients, this would also provide more than the typical breaded fish product in terms of texture. ‘Healthier’ variants have been lightly coated, offering a less pronounced texture. Using ingredients such as ancient grains or seeds could provide the more crunchy texture associated with properly coated fish. Birds Eye Inspirations Crunchy Tortilla, Chilli & Lime Breaded plays in this space in terms of texture, though without the added health aspect.

As well as appealing to parents for family meals, more unusual coatings could expand the appeal of such products to the more ‘foodie’ consumer.



British coastal origin could provide important standout as sustainability has lost its power as a differentiator

The facts

• Three quarters (76%) of fish/shellfish eaters expect retailers to ensure all their fish/shellfish is sustainably sourced.

• As such, when purchasing fish/shellfish, only a third (35%) seek out products which are labelled as sustainable.

• Over a quarter of buyers look for fish/shellfish which is caught off the UK coast, rising to 35% of ABs.

The implications

That fish has been caught off the UK coast is a consideration for only a quarter of buyers when purchasinging seafood, although this rises to 35% of ABs. There are opportunities for companies which offer fish and shellfish caught by UK fishermen from the UK coast to be more vocal about this fact to tap into consumers’ sense of patriotism. Mintel’s Patriot Games trend looks at how national patriotism has grown as a counter-trend to marketplace globalisation, with consumers keen to show support to their own country.

This has been seen widely elsewhere in the food industry, with brands such as Yeo Valley shouting about its support of ‘British Family Farms’. However, there has not been a similar push for British fishermen, suggesting that brands which do this could create a USP in this area. Adding weight to their support of British fishermen, a small donation from every tin could be made to UK charities for fishermen such as The Fishermen’s Mission.

Given that as sustainability is losing its power as a differentiator in this market, owing to its high prevalence and that this has become an expectation, a USP around provenance could be valuable.

Providing consumers with more information on exactly where the fish they are buying was caught around the UK coast, and even on what boat, could resonate. John West has done with its online fish tracker, however none of the products are caught close to the UK.

THE MARKET



What you need to know


It is widely accepted that a healthy diet should include at least two portions of fish per week, with 70% of fish/shellfish eaters in agreement with this (see Fish and Shellfish – UK, November 2014). However, the average weekly consumption of fish/shellfish per person is just half of this recommended level.

In order to capitalise on the significant growth potential here, operators need to support consumers to eat two portions of fish per week.


The prolonged squeeze on real incomes created a challenging retail landscape for the food market, but particularly for comparatively high-cost products such as fish. The rise in real incomes over the last year therefore has been good news for the chilled fish market, and has paved the way for premiumisation. The predicted increase in consumer spending over the next five years should see more people trade back up to these options.

Chilled fish/shellfish continues to grow its share

Increasing its dominance in the market, chilled fish/shellfish has grown its share of spend on these products from 57% in 2010 to almost two thirds (64%) in 2015. Volume sales have grown by 8% over the last five years, while rising prices have pushed up value sales by 30% to £2,194 million. Innovation in convenience-driven formats over the last five years has provided a big boost to this segment.

There is no end in sight for the growth of chilled/fish shellfish. Value sales are forecast to rise by 16% over 2015-20 to reach £2,541 million, with volume growth of 13% to 189 million kg.

Deflation in fresh fish has not eroded value growth

While there has been some deflation in the retail price of fresh fish in 2014 and 2015, the average price within the market has continued to edge up, indicating a shift towards added-value products.

Frozen fish has suffered the biggest losses

Frozen fish/shellfish continues to lose out to chilled, despite the lower price points. Volume sales have fallen by almost a fifth (19%) over the last five years, and value sales by 12%. The struggles of this segment relate partly to a less healthy image of the breaded products which make up a large part of this segment.

Going forward, the rise in consumer spending is likely to see more people trade up out of frozen fish/shellfish, and the downward trajectory in sales is set to continue. Mintel expects the value of the segment to fall by a further 11% to £616 million, with volumes dropping by 17% to 92 million kg.

Falling prices buoy sales in ambient

Average prices rose rapidly in the ambient fish/shellfish segment between 2010 and 2013, having a knock-on effect on volume sales. However, this trend came to an end in 2014, and prices fell notably in 2015. This is mainly attributable to the rife discounting in the tinned fish/shellfish segment. This has helped to buoy volume sales, these staying flat at 83 million kg in 2015, but value sales dropped by 6% year on year.

A move away from promotions would help to build value back into the market, with added value features such as resealable packaging perhaps helping in this respect.



Market size and segmentation

Overall sales are broadly stagnate in 2015

There is expected to be no great movement in the overall market size of

FIGURE 11: UK RETAIL VALUE AND VOLUME SALES OF FISH AND SHELLFISH, 2010-20

Total volume Index Annual

changeTotal value Index Annual

changeTotal value at 2015 prices Index Annual

changem kg % £m % £m %

2010 393 109 na 2,984 88 na 3,349 98 na2011 388 107 -1.3 3,076 90 +3.1 3,258 96 -2.72012 383 106 -1.3 3,213 94 +4.5 3,295 97 +1.12013 376 104 -1.8 3,311 97 +3.1 3,275 96 -0.62014 363 101 -3.5 3,391 99 +2.4 3,353 98 +2.42015 (est.) 361 100 -0.6 3,409 100 +0.5 3,409 100 +1.72016 (fore) 358 99 -0.9 3,472 102 +1.9 3,393 100 -0.52017 (fore) 357 99 -0.2 3,524 103 +1.5 3,423 100 +0.92018 (fore) 358 99 +0.1 3,586 105 +1.8 3,433 101 +0.32019 (fore) 358 99 +0.3 3,652 107 +1.9 3,461 102 +0.82020 (fore) 359 99 +0.0 3,736 110 +2.3 3,497 103 +1.0

Source: Mintel/based on IRI

fish and shellfish in 2015. Volume sales are forecast to slip by 0.6% year on year to 361 million kg while value sales are expected to edge up by 0.5% to £3,409 million. However, this masks contrasting

performances between the different formats, as well as different patterns in terms of changes in average prices.



Chilled fish/shellfish continues to grow its share

Increasing its dominance in the market, chilled fish/shellfish has grown its share of spend on these products from 57% in 2010 to almost two thirds (64%) in 2015. While this relates to the higher cost of chilled fish/shellfish compared to the other formats, this segment also has the clear lead in terms of volume sales, accounting

for 47%. Its volume share has steadily risen each year.

Volume sales in the segment have grown by 8% over the last five years, while rising prices have pushed up value sales by 30% to £2,194 million. Testament to the appeal of chilled fish/shellfish is that rising prices have not translated into volume losses even when consumers’ budgets have been squeezed.

Underpinning the popularity of this format is the positive associations this type of fish has with healthiness, with people more likely to see chilled plain fish as being more nutritious than other formats. This segment is also benefitting the most from the trend towards scratch cooking, as discussed more in the Market Drivers section.

FIGURE 12: UK RETAIL VALUE SALES OF FISH AND SHELLFISH, BY SEGMENT, 2010-20

Chilled fish and shellfish

Annual change

Frozen fish and shellfish

Annual change

Ambient fish and shellfish

Annual change

£m % £m % £m %2010 1,689 785 5102011 1,739 +3.0 793 +1.0 544 +6.72012 1,860 +7.0 785 -1.0 568 +4.42013 1,979 +6.4 745 -5.1 587 +3.32014 2,118 +7.0 711 -4.6 562 -4.32015 (est.) 2,194 +3.6 689 -3.1 526 -6.42016 (fore) 2,271 +3.5 670 -2.8 532 +1.12017 (fore) 2,324 +2.3 653 -2.4 547 +2.82018 (fore) 2,384 +2.6 641 -1.8 561 +2.62019 (fore) 2,453 +2.9 627 -2.2 573 +2.12020 (fore) 2,541 +3.6 616 -1.8 580 +1.2% change, 2010-15 +29.9 -12.2 +3.1% change 2015-20 +15.8 -10.6 +10.3


FIGURE 13: UK RETAIL VOLUME SALES OF FISH AND SHELLFISH, BY SEGMENT, 2010-20

Chilled fish and shellfish

Annual change

Frozen fish and shellfish

Annual change

Ambient fish and shellfish

Annual change

m kg % m kg % m kg %2010 155 136 1022011 154 -0.6 137 +0.7 97 -4.92012 157 +1.9 134 -2.2 92 -5.22013 165 +5.1 126 -6.0 85 -7.62014 165 - 115 -8.7 83 -2.42015 (est.) 168 +1.8 110 -4.3 83 -2016 (fore) 172 +2.1 105 -4.5 81 -2.22017 (fore) 175 +2.0 101 -3.9 81 -0.22018 (fore) 180 +2.6 98 -3.0 80 -1.52019 (fore) 185 +2.9 94 -3.7 79 -1.02020 (fore) 189 +2.3 92 -3.1 78 -1.6% change, 2010-15 +8.4 -19.1 -18.6% change 2015-2 +12.5 -16.4 -6.0




The availability of convenient products has increased significantly over the period, making chilled fish/shellfish accessible for novice cooks and time-poor consumers, or simply those who want a simple and convenient meal. The Saucy Fish Company has been a notable success story in this space, offering a wide range of formats and exciting flavours, and continues to go from strength to strength. With a similar positioning, Young’s Funky Fish brand was a new entrant to the chilled fish/shellfish market in 2013 and continues to expand its range (see Launch Activity and Innovation).

While there has been some deflation in the retail price of fresh fish in 2014 and 2015, the average price within the market has continued to edge up, indicating a shift towards added-value products.

While the chilled market is doing well overall, sales at fish counters have fallen, according to trade sources. This reflects the rise of pre-packed options, particularly those with sauces/marinades, and is also linked to people shopping at smaller stores and discounters where there are no fish counters.

Chilled expected to continue to grow ahead of the market

There is no end in sight for the growth of chilled/fish shellfish. Value sales are forecast to rise by 16% over 2015-20 to reach £2,541 million, while volume sales are set to see growth of 13% to 189 million kg. This will see its share of spend on fish and shellfish overall climb to 68%.

The rise in consumer spending, as discussed in Market Drivers, should be a boon for this segment. People who have

limited their usage in times of financial pressure are likely to up their purchasing of these products as they have more money to spare. People are likely to trade up to chilled fish/shellfish both from poultry (this being much lower cost) and from the other fish formats.

Consumers’ growing culinary confidence that the rise in scratch cooking should

bring about will also help to boost this segment going forward.

Given that convenience-oriented formats - from the likes of The Saucy Fish Company – are performing strongly and are a key area of innovation, the growth in the chilled segment market going forward is set to be supported by added-value NPD.

FIGURE 14: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF CHILLED FISH AND SHELLFISH, BY VALUE, 2010-20

FIGURE 15: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF CHILLED FISH AND SHELLFISH, BY VOLUME, 2010-20





Frozen fish has suffered the biggest losses

Frozen fish/shellfish continues to lose out to chilled, despite the lower price points. Volume sales have fallen by almost a fifth (19%) over the last five years, and value sales by 12%. The struggles of this segment relate in part to the less healthy image of the breaded products which make up a large part of this segment. Only 17% of people consider these to be nutritious, while three in 10 deem them processed (see Qualities Associated with Different Formats of Fish/Shellfish). Furthermore, one in four fish/shellfish eaters thinks that freezing damages the quality of fish/shellfish (Fish and Shellfish – UK, November 2014).

Frozen fish is also failing to benefit from the rise of scratch cooking in the same way that chilled has. Breaded products don’t lend themselves well to scratch cooking and 26% of fish/shellfish eaters think that it is harder to cook fish well from frozen than from fresh.

The very nature of the frozen aisle compared to the chilled section of stores may also be having an impact, with lower product visibility, and therefore people perhaps being less engaged by products. This is particularly damaging considering the vibrant packaging of The Saucy Fish Company for example.

However it is not all doom and gloom for this segment, with the rate of decline diminishing in 2015. This is likely to be partly thanks to the surge in launch activity in the segment, discussed in more detail in the Launch Activity and Innovation section. The recent move by Young’s Funky Fish brand to extend into frozen fish, for example, shows that there is seen to be growth potential here.

Efforts from companies to raise the profile of frozen food overall may also be helping to stem the decline to a certain extent, a key example being Sainsbury’s Love Your Freezer campaign. Iceland’s push behind its frozen fish and its new private label line, Arctic Royal, is also positive for this segment.

Going forward, the rise in consumer spending is likely to see more people trade up out of frozen fish/shellfish, and the downward trajectory in sales is set to continue. Mintel expects that the value of the segment will fall by a further 11% to £616 million, with volumes dropping by 16% to 92 million kg.

FIGURE 16: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF FROZEN FISH AND SHELLFISH, BY VALUE, 2010-20

FIGURE 17: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF FROZEN FISH AND SHELLFISH, BY VOLUME, 2010-20





Falling prices buoy sales in ambient

Ambient is the smallest segment within the fish and shellfish market, capturing 15% of total spend, despite positive perceptions of tinned fish/shellfish as convenient and offering good value for money. Usage is largely constrained to the lunchtime occasion, yet people may be put off these as an out-of-home lunch option owing to fishy smells, acting to limit usage.

Average prices rose rapidly in the segment between 2010 and 2013, with a knock-on effect on volume sales. However, this trend came to an end in 2014, and prices fell notably in 2015. This is mainly attributable to the rife discounting in the tinned fish/shellfish segment. This has helped to buoy volume sales, these staying flat at 83 million kg in 2015, but value sales dropped by 6% year on year. A move away from promotions should help to build value back into the market, with added value features such as resealable packaging perhaps helping in this respect.

Market leader, John West, however, managed to grow in both volume and value terms (10% and 4% year on year respectively) in the 12 months to July 2015, boosted by NPD.

New oily fish products, particularly tinned mackerel with ethnic flavours, have flooded the market in 2015 which should have helped this sub-segment within ambient fish/shellfish.

Meanwhile, efforts to encourage usage of tinned fish for evening meals should also help the market going forward.

However, the market is not expected to bounce back over the next five years. As with frozen fish, the rise in consumer spending is likely to see people trade up to chilled fish options. Volume sales are expected to dip by 6%, while value sales

are anticipated to rise by 10% to £580 million. However, the volatility in prices, and the level to which this affects volume sales, as seen in the past, makes this segment quite unpredictable.

FIGURE 18: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF AMBIENT FISH AND SHELLFISH, BY VALUE, 2010-20

FIGURE 19: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF AMBIENT FISH AND SHELLFISH, BY VOLUME, 2010-20





Market drivers

Growing confidence with scratch cooking bodes well for fish

With three in 10 (29%) consumers cooking from scratch more compared to a year ago, compared to just 8% who have cut back, according to Prepared Meals Review – UK, May 2015, the scratch cooking trend appears to be gathering pace. This is likely to be contributing to the growth currently being enjoyed in the chilled segment of the fish/shellfish market (see Market Size and Segmentation).

People not feeling as confident in preparing and cooking with fish/shellfish, compared to poultry or red meat for example, may have held the market back to a certain extent. Therefore, rising proficiency in scratch cooking and a desire to expand repertoires and experiment with different dishes should see this barrier diminish.

However, fish is not typically associated with being versatile, which may be limiting usage. As a comparison, poultry is widely deemed to be suitable for a wide range of different dishes, seeing it a key beneficiary of consumers’ love affair with foreign cuisine. This illustrates a need to raise awareness of the versatility of fish and provide consumers with inspiration for dishes. Encouragingly, the consumer research for this report revealed a widespread desire to find out different ways of using fish, for example in ethnic cuisine (see Attitudes towards Fish and Shellfish).

However, convenience still appeals

Despite the scratch cooking trend, demand for convenience remains high, which the rapid growth of the Saucy Fish Company since its launch in 2010 is testament to. This company was a game changer in

the market, helping to make fish both convenient and exciting.

The appeal of fish/shellfish which is coated or marinated is highest among the younger generation, while over-55s are most likely to look for plain options (see Choice Factors). This is in line with young consumers’ more general lean towards convenient and time-saving products, while older consumers are the keenest scratch cooks.

Having become used to the convenience that added-value products provide, it is likely that the younger generation will retain their enthusiasm for these products as they age, boding well for the market in the long term.

Deflation has impacted the fish market

Prices of fish and particularly fresh fish have historically risen ahead of inflation, which is likely to have made these a ‘treat’ purchase rather than an everyday option for many people given consumers’ frugal shopping habits during the recession and its aftermath

The retail price of fish has dropped in 2015, in line with overall food price deflation – driven by supermarket price wars and the significant growth of discounters, Aldi and Lidl. However, prices of fresh fish have been more volatile, owing to prices being reliant on fish stocks.

FIGURE 20: RPI – TOTAL FOOD, FRESH FISH, FISH AND POULTRY, JANUARY 2009-OCTOBER 2015

Source: ONS/Mintel




The squeeze on consumers’ real incomes during the recession and its aftermath has been long lasting, seeing a strong economy-drive set in among many consumers. This has created a challenging retail landscape for the food market, but particularly for comparatively high-cost products such as fish.

Positively for consumers, growth in AWE (average weekly earnings) has outpaced that of CPI (consumer price index) since October 2014, with inflation having been flat or in negative territory over 2015. This boost is seeing people feel more confident about their financial standing and is feeding through into consumer spending. This benefits the fish market, with people likely to trade back up to these options as they loosen their purse strings.

Conversely, poultry is being hit as people have more money in their pockets, having thrived through its low cost positioning in recent years. Indeed, 29% of poultry buyers stated that they would buy more expensive alternatives to poultry such as fish and red meat if they had more

money (see Poultry and Game Meat – UK, October 2015). Chilled fish is set to be the beneficiary of rising consumer spending, with sales expected to rise by 16% over 2015-20 (see Market Size and Segmentation).

There has been a clear premiumisation trend in the market, as discussed in Launch Activity and Innovation, with this set to continue. This also bodes well for the continued growth of added-value products within the chilled fish market, which rising incomes should enable consumers to better trade up to.


It is widely accepted that a healthy diet should include at least two portions of fish per week, with 70% of fish/shellfish eaters in agreement with this (see Fish and Shellfish – UK, November 2014). The Government backing behind the drive for two portions of fish per week – this amount being an official recommendation from the NHS – has helped this concept to gain traction. The NHS has defined a portion of fish as weighing around 140 grams when cooked.

The average weekly consumption of fish/shellfish per person through retail channels stands at some 107 grams. Eating out quantities of fish and shellfish stand at some 14 grams, according to Defra Family Food 2014. As such, it is clear that despite high levels of awareness, people are on average failing to reach the recommended target. In order to capitalise on the significant growth potential here, operators need to provide more support to help consumers to eat two portions of fish per week.

People may be unaware of exactly what one portion constitutes, therefore flagging up on product packaging that a product contributes one portion towards their two per week should prove useful. It will drive further visibility of this recommendation, providing helpful reminders which may sway consumers towards fish in their purchasing decisions. This approach has helped to drive awareness of the “five-a-day” message for fruit and vegetables, suggesting this could also work well for fish.

KEY PLAYERS





Premiumisation has been a core trend in innovation during the last 12 months and is evident across all of the processed seafoodsegments. Meanwhile ‘economy’ claims fell to their lowest ebb in 2014 since at least 2011. This reflects efforts for companies to capitalise on consumers’ increasing ability to trade up amid the rise in consumer spending.

A surge in frozen launches in 2015

There has been a significant increase in frozen fish NPD in 2015, with the number of launches in this segment up by 59% in January to October 2015 compared to the whole of 2014. This reverses a trend which has seen frozen lose out in NPD since 2011. Launches from Iceland were the main driver behind this trend.

The competition heats up in oily fish

The tinned oily fish segment has been a hotbed of NPD activity in 2015, which has driven up claims relating to cardiovascular health (through referencing Omega 3 content) to the highest that has been seen over the five-year period. Many of these launches feature exciting and perhaps slightly unexpected flavours, with global cuisine the key source of flavour inspiration for innovation. John West and Princes were the most active in this respect.

Own-brand continues to dominate chilled seafood

Own-label continues to dominate the sales of chilled seafood, similar to chilled poultry and red meat. Brands have traditionally struggled to gain ground when it comes to plain cuts of meat or fish fillets, as it remains difficult to differentiate their products in tangible terms.

The Saucy Fish Co with its fish and sauce products and Young’s with fish fillets and ready-to-eat products are among a handful of sizeable operators present in chilled seafood.

John West extends its lead in ambient

The ambient seafood market remains a duopoly, with John West and Princes together accounting for nearly £6 in every £10 spent

on the segment. While the two stood almost neck and neck in 2013/14, John West leaped ahead in 2014/15, bucking the falling sales trend seen in the segment.

With a modest adspend from John West and little other activity, NPD is likely to have provided a boost to sales during the year.

Princes is hit by Tesco delisting

The growth of John West appears to have taken a toll on its closest competitor, Princes. Price cuts have helped Princes to maintain volume sales, however this has hit its value sales, which fell sharply. The near-absence of above-the-line advertising has likely played a role in the lacklustre performance. However, distribution losses are also understood to have contributed to the decline.

Birds Eye gains volume share, at the expense of value

Birds Eye held its top position in the frozen fish segment in 2014/15 despite a slight loss of market share by value. The decline in sales continues the downward trend seen by the brand in 2013/14. The group pointed to a tough retail environment driven by heavy discounting by retailers as the cause for a fall in overall sales according to reports in July 2015. Its Inspirations range however, launched earlier in 2014, was hailed as one of the strongest new products of the year. Testament to this, new products were added to the range in July 2015.


Ad spend in the fish and shellfish market leaped ahead in 2013, subsequently falling by a third in 2014 as it returned back to the levels typical in the market in recent years. Birds Eye was mainly responsible for sharp rise in adspend in 2013, as it stepped up the support for its Fish Fusions and fish fingers.

The company increased its adspend again in 2014, though by only a moderate 4%. However, this was not enough to make up for the cutbacks in spend by the likes of Young’s, Saucy Fish and Tesco, which saw overall adspend in this market fall sharply.



Launch activity and innovation


Premiumisation has been a core trend in NPD during the last 12 months and is evident across all of the seafood segments. Meanwhile ‘economy’ claims fell to their lowest ebb in 2014 since at least 2011. This reflects efforts by companies to capitalise on consumers’ increasing ability to trade up amid the rise in consumer spending (see Market Drivers).

A surge in frozen launches in 2015

The number of launches in processed fish products has been in decline since 2012. However, 2015 marks a turnaround in this respect, with launches on track to exceed those recorded in 2012. This provides a strong indication of operators’ renewed confidence in the fish market in light of rising spending power.

However, while the chilled fish and shellfish market is currently enjoying growth, it is frozen fish which has fuelled the surge in NPD activity in 2015 (January to October), with the number of launches in this segment up by 59% compared to 2014. This reverses a trend which has seen frozen lose out in NPD since 2011.

A notable development in frozen is the expansion of Young’s Funky Fish range into the frozen aisle in September 2015, previously offering solely a chilled range. Four frozen products were part of a seven-strong range - Cod Fingers in a Smokey Cajun Breadcrumb, Cod Fingers in a Soy, Honey & Ginger Panko Crumb, Salmon & Pollock Fishcakes in a Light Tempura Batter and Salmon & Pollock Fishcakes with Ginger, Chilli & Honey in a Light Tempura Batter. These products look to put a more exciting spin on traditional fish fingers and fish cakes, through more unusual flavours and different textures.

FIGURE 21: NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES IN THE UK PROCESSED FISH MARKET, BY STORAGE TYPE, 2011-15

Iceland has been the growth engine within frozen fish in 2015, accounting for a quarter of all new products entering this segment in the first 10 months of the year. This and the significant advertising push from the supermarket is testament to Iceland’s charge within the frozen fish segment in 2015, with the quality of its products the core message (see Brand Communication and Promotion).

The private label brand, Arctic Royal, is a newcomer to the segment in 2015, yet

has already clocked up sales of some £6 million. The range comprises notably premium types of fish and shellfish, including Whole Raw Black Tiger Prawns, Extra Large Roeless Scallops, a Whole Dover Sole and Skinless & Boneless Swordfish Loins. Meanwhile, the latest addition to the Iceland portfolio – and again looking to communicate the premium credentials of its offering – is the Luxury Uncooked Lobster Tails, unveiled in the run-up to Christmas.

* January-October 2015

Source: Mintel GNPD



Supermarkets lead innovation

FIGURE 22: NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES IN THE UK PROCESSED FISH MARKET, BY COMPANY, 2011-15

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2013-14% % % % % % point change

Tesco 12.7 15.5 9.7 11.2 9.7 +1.5Waitrose 7.6 6.6 10.5 8.9 8.5 -1.6Marks & Spencer 5.1 6.6 8.1 8.5 7.6 +0.4Asda 4.7 4.3 3.6 8.0 10.2 +4.4Young's 5.5 3.9 8.9 7.1 5.5 -1.8Birds Eye 4.7 3.9 2.4 6.7 3.8 +4.3Morrisons 5.5 14 7.3 4.9 4.2 -2.4Lidl 0.4 1.9 5.6 4.9 7.2 -0.7John West 2.5 4.7 3.6 4.9 6.4 +1.3Aldi 6.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 2.1 -Other companies 44.5 34.7 36.3 30.9 34.8 -5.4Total 100 100 100 100 100 -


Source: Mintel GNPD

Mirroring the strong position of own-label across all formats of fish, supermarkets lead the way in launch activity in processed fish, consistently responsible for approximately six in 10 launches over the last four years.

In a similar vein to Iceland, Lidl has also looked to notably expand its offering of processed fish in 2015, with the focus firmly on more premium and exotic options. Examples include Duc De Coeur Traditional Breton Scallops, Sol & Mar Marinated Mussels and Laschinger Hand Salted Norwegian Smoked Salmon.

Meanwhile, Morrisons unveiled a new tertiary brand in seafood called The Big

Fish Company in September 2015. The chilled range includes jumbo king prawns, breaded pollock fillets and smoked salmon.

Young’s maintains its position as the most active brand in terms of NPD

The premiumisation push is evident across both own-label and branded products. Frozen brand, Young’s, for example expanded its premium Gastro range in spring 2015, these products being positioned as “restaurant quality”. The additions in this segment included three new microwaveable products in ‘Flavour Lock Bags’ and Beer Battered Cod. The range was extended again in autumn 2015 in response to very strong growth

according to trade sources, with two Chunky Basa Fillet products joining the line-up.

Meanwhile, the company has also been active under its Funky Fish brand, sold exclusively in Asda. This range has strong similarities to the fish-in-a-bag with sauce products which form part of Saucy Fish Company’s range which have had a big impact in the chilled fish market since its launch in 2010.

Helping to secure Young’s position as the most active brand in terms of NPD in 2015, was the rebranding as part of a master brand redesign which was kicked off in February 2015. This was rolled out across its portfolio for consistency.



Birds Eye is close behind

Birds Eye notably ramped up its NPD in 2014, boosted by a brand revamp across its packaging which was rolled out over the summer, including a simplified Birds Eye logo. This aimed to add more “warmth and personality” to the frozen aisle and to increase standout, according to the company.

The coating of fish is pushed into the limelight in 2015

NPD from Birds Eye in 2015 has placed more of a focus on the coatings of products, looking to increase the products’ appeal through more interesting flavours and textures. For example, new additions to the premium Inspirations range included Sicilian Lemon & Pink Peppercorn Breaded Fish Fillets and Crunchy Tortilla, Chilli & Lime Breaded Fish Fillets. While providing a more crunchy texture than standard options, the strong ethnic influences of these products will also help to makes these products more exciting. The Fish Chargrilled with Thai Coconut, Lemongrass and Chilli product also clearly plays in this ethnic-inspired space, helping to showcase the versatility of fish in terms of fitting with popular world cuisine.

Tapping into many consumers’ love of spicy flavours, Birds Eye has also unveiled Hot & Spicy Fish Fillet Burgers. The focus on ethnic flavours – and particularly the introduction of spicy ingredients – also lends these products quite a strong adult positioning. Given that many breaded fish products are commonly eaten by children – reflected in high usage among adults with children aged 6-12 – this could help

to boost purchasing beyond parents with young children.

Meanwhile, the Lightly Dusted Cod Fillets with Lemon and Black Pepper provide a more subtle flavouring, yet still clearly show that these options can bring a lot more to a dish in terms of flavour than standard breaded fish. That these products are “lightly dusted” could also project a more healthy image, targeting people who think breaded/battered fish is unhealthy.

Innovation in coating has also been used by Birds Eye to enhance the health credentials of its products, with the launch of Wholegrain Fish Fingers. This sort of NPD looks to be needed given that frozen breaded fish has a fairly poor reputation in terms of being nutritious. Furthermore, almost six in 10 users would like to see a wider availability of healthier coated/breaded fish options (see Attitude towards Fish and Shellfish).

High level of launch activity from John West in 2015

John West has had a busy NPD schedule in 2015. Indicating that the Infusions range of tuna had a successful launch in 2014, new lines were added in summer 2015, including Chipotle Tuna and Tangy Jalapeño Tuna. It is not surprising that this convenient no drain, resealable pack chimes with consumers, given that 60% of users would like to see more fish/shellfish products in re-sealable packaging (see Attitudes towards Fish and Shellfish).

New tinned squid and scallop products also joined the John West range, which is in line with the premiumisation trend currently evident in the overall fish and shellfish market. The squid products are available in Cantabrian Ink Sauce and Vieira Sauce, both targeting the more adventurous consumers.



The competition heats up in oily fish

The tinned oily fish segment has been a hotbed of NPD activity in 2015, which has driven up claims relating to cardiovascular health (through referencing Omega 3 content) to the highest that has been seen over the five-year period. Many of these launches feature exciting and perhaps slightly unexpected flavours, again with global cuisine the key source of flavour inspiration for innovation.

This is providing consumers with far more choice in tinned oily fish and will help to build awareness of the wide range of flavour combinations that this type of fish can complement. The focus on flavours which are most commonly associated with evening meals could also help to promote higher levels of usage of tinned fish for dinner. Current usage of tinned fish is predominantly driven by lunchtime consumption (see Usage of Fish and Shellfish). Princes has sought to communicate the versatility of these products for different meals through its “enjoy hot or cold” flash on the front of its mackerel products.

John West Mackerel in Sauces relaunched with new variants in March 2015. The

new flavours of sauces include: Teriyaki, Sundried Tomato & Basil, Dijon Mustard Sauce and Tomato & Chilli. Meanwhile Hot Piri Piri and Rich Tomato & Roasted Onion variants were added to Princes mackerel portfolio. Own-label has also been active in this space, for example Mackerel Fillets in a Hot and Spicy Sauce and Sardines in Olive Oil with a Chilli and Jalapeño Kick were launched under the Asda Chosen by You banner in summer 2015.

Ethical claims rise

FIGURE 23: NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES IN THE UK PROCESSED FISH MARKET, BY CLAIM, 2011-15

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Change 2011-14 Change 2013-14% % % % % % point % point

Ethical - Environmentally Friendly Package 40.3 39.9 48.4 56.3 51.7 +16.0 +7.9Ethical - Environmentally Friendly Product 30.5 38.4 37.5 49.6 52.1 +19.1 +12.1No Additives/Preservatives 21.6 18.6 17.7 25.9 22.9 +4.3 +8.2Ease of Use 13.1 19.0 20.2 28.1 23.3 +15.0 +7.9Premium 11.4 7.8 16.1 17.9 13.1 +6.5 +1.8Microwaveable 8.5 7.8 7.7 9.4 16.1 +0.9 +1.7Ethical – Animal 14.8 8.5 9.3 7.6 7.2 -7.2 -1.7Economy 5.5 12.8 8.5 4.5 5.5 -1.0 -4.0Low/No/Reduced Fat 5.9 5.4 3.2 6.7 4.7 +0.8 +3.0Low/No/Reduced Transfat 1.7 4.7 3.6 6.7 6.4 +5.0 +3.1


Source: Mintel GNPD

Claims related to ethics are more prevalent within the fish, meat and poultry market than elsewhere in the food industry. Within fish, these have become increasingly commonplace and the consumer research for this report reveals that sustainability is firmly on people’s radars. Availability of MSC-certified fish continues to grow. A notable recent launch is the first MSC-certified whole lobster from Lidl. This rise is reflected in a significant boost to spend on this type of fish in the year to March 2015, according to data published by the Marine Stewardship Council.

However that claims relating to sustainability feature on more than half

of new fish launches means that their ability to provide standout is diluted. Also suggesting that this claim may have limited impact is that the majority of consumers expect retailers to ensure that all their fish/shellfish is sustainably sourced (see Attitudes towards Fish and Shellfish). This puts the onus on operators to go a step further if they are to set themselves apart on ethical grounds.

Interestingly, ethical animal claims have decreased, suggesting that this could be an area for companies to focus on to support sustainability claims. Being dolphin friendly/safe and being endorsed by RSPCA Monitored Freedom Food are currently the most commonly seen claims in this space.

A new entrant to the canned fish market taking a multipronged approach to its ethical stance is the Dutch brand, Fish Tales, which made its UK debut in Waitrose in January 2015. The brand featured the MSC logo and is caught by pole and line to ensure there is no by-catch. It also carries the name and photo of one of the tuna fishermen on-pack, helping to create a sense of provenance.



Market share

Own-brand continues to dominate chilled seafood

This segment analyses the market share data for the frozen and ambient segments of the seafood market, which feature a significant branded presence and activity. Own-label continues to dominate chilled seafood, similar to chilled poultry and red meat. Brands have traditionally struggled to gain ground when it comes to plain cuts of meat or fish fillets, as it remains difficult to differentiate their products in tangible terms.

Saucy Fish Co goes online

The Saucy Fish Co with its fish and sauce products and Young’s with fish fillets and ready-to-eat products are among a handful of sizeable operators present in chilled seafood. Tesco delisted and then relisted Young’s in 2013, however, the brand was again delisted in October 2015 as part of Tesco’s Project Reset brand cull.

This came despite the brand launching a new ad campaign in January, highlighting the “everyday occasions to eat fish more

often”. Looking to experiential marketing to prove how easy its products are to prepare, the brand launches a one-day pop-up restaurant in autumn 2015, staffed by children.

The Saucy Fish Co launched an online store on its brand website in late 2015, said to have been in response to consumer demand. The launch is due to be supported by a marketing campaign in early 2016. While expanding the brand’s reach, the online store may be hampered by there being no dedicated delivery times and the relatively high £5 delivery charge.

Young’s expands Funky Fish Kitchen

Young’s is also present in the chilled segment with its Funky Fish Kitchen brand, exclusive to ASDA. The range includes ready-to-cook and ready-to-eat products typically with a flavoured dressing, butter or sauce. Described by the company as “hugely successful”, the range is updated seasonally, also being expanded into frozen in autumn 2015.

The company reported in late 2014 that its branded chilled seafood offering was worth £50 million, including £8 million through Funky Fish and £24 million through Young's three chilled breaded fish fillets.

Other operators looking to carve a foothold in chilled seafood include Lyons Seafood, which focuses on shellfish and smoked salmon under the Lyons and Fisherman brands, alongside The Big Prawn Company and Seafood & Eat It which is dedicated to Cornish Crab products. However, overall the branded presence in this market remains relatively modest, with Young’s and the Saucy Fish the only brands with a widespread presence across the leading grocers.



John West extends its lead in ambient

The ambient seafood market remains a duopoly, with John West and Princes together accounting for nearly £6 in every £10 spent on the segment. While the two stood almost neck and neck in 2013/14, John West leaped ahead in 2014/15, bucking the falling sales trend seen in the segment.

With a modest adspend from John West and little other activity, NPD is likely to have provided a boost to sales during

FIGURE 24: LEADING BRANDS’ SALES AND SHARES IN THE UK AMBIENT SEAFOOD MARKET, BY VALUE AND VOLUME, 2013/14 AND 2014/15

Value 2013/14* Share 2014/15** Share % change 2013/14 - 2014/15£m % £m %

John West 168 29 174 32 +3.6Of which:John West Tuna 107 19 110 20 +2.8John West Other 61 11 64 12 +4.9Princes 155 27 141 26 -9.0Of which:Princes Tuna 109 19 102 19 -6.4Princes Other 46 8 39 7 -15.2Glenryck 8 1 7 1 -12.5Other brands 16 3 19 3 +18.8Own-label 229 40 203 37 -11.4Total 576 100 544 100 -5.6

Volume 2013/14* Share 2014/15** Share % change 2013/14 - 2014/15m kg % m kg %

John West 21 25 23 27 +9.5Of which:John West Tuna 15 18 17 20 +13.3John West Other 6 7 6 7 -Princes 23 28 23 27 -Of which:Princes Tuna 18 22 19 23 +5.6Princes Other 5 6 4 5 -20.0Glenryck 2 2 2 2 -Other brands 3 4 4 5 +33.3Own-label 34 41 32 38 -5.9Total 83 100 84 100 +1.2

* 52 w/e 19 July 2014

** 52 w/e 18 July 2015


the year. The company’s share of new launches increased in 2014 and again in 2015 (Jan-Oct) to see it become the most active brand (Launch Activity and Innovation).

Recent launches have looked to inject value and excitement into ambient fish, such as flavoured tuna under the Infusions range and mackerel in flavoured sauces. The latter should help to support growth in the brand’s non-tuna ranges. However, John West also appears to have cut prices to prop up sales, a trend seen across the segment.

Concerns about the sustainability of the brand’s fish were raised in October 2015 by Greenpeace. It claimed that John West catches just 2% of its fish using pole-and-line, despite pledging that all its tuna would be sustainable by 2016. The brand stated that its total pole-and-line supply is higher than suggested and that it meets the 2016 target under a wider definition of sustainability. Any impact on sales remains to be seen. John West owner, MW Brands, launched a partnership with WWF in October 2014 to source all of the group’s products in Europe from MSC or ASC certified fisheries or farms.



Princes is hit by Tesco delisting

The growth of John West appears to have taken a toll on its closest competitor, Princes. Price cuts have helped Princes to maintain volume sales, however, this has hit value sales, which fell sharply. The near-absence of above-the-line advertising has likely played a role in the lacklustre performance. However, distribution losses are also understood to have contributed to the decline.

As with John West, Princes has been exploring flavoured NPD in mackerel in 2015, including larger pack sizes, apparently to inject excitement into the range and drive a wider range of occasions. However, this is yet to translate to growth for its non-tuna sales. The tuna range meanwhile is hoped to gain a boost from a new marketing push launched in December 2015. The campaign invites

fans to suggest their favourite fish dish recipe to compete for a chance to win £5,000.

Birds Eye gains volume share, at the expense of value

Birds Eye held its top position in the frozen fish segment in 2014/15 despite a slight loss of market share by value. The decline in sales continues the downward trend seen by the brand in 2013/14. The group pointed to a tough retail environment driven by heavy discounting by retailers as the cause for a fall in overall sales according to reports in July 2015.

Its Inspirations range, launched earlier in 2014, was hailed as one of the strongest new products of the year. Testament to this, new products were added to the range in July 2015. However, its other ranges appear to have struggled despite

a logo and packaging overhaul in August 2014. The brand launched a new ‘Mix Up Your Menu’ marketing push in 2015, however, the fall in above-the-line adspend is likely to have played a role in the lacklustre sales.

Birds Eye changed ownership in June 2015, when its parent group Iglo was sold by the private equity firm Permira to Nomad Foods. Nomad Foods went on to acquire the European operations of Findus Group, which also owns Young’s, in August.

However, Young’s remains under its previous investors, including Highbridge Principal Strategies, Lion Capital LLP and Sankaty Advisors, with the new holding company entitled Young’s Seafood International Holdings Ltd.

FIGURE 25: LEADING BRANDS’ SALES AND SHARES IN THE UK FROZEN SEAFOOD MARKET, BY VALUE AND VOLUME, 2013/14 AND 2014/15

Value 2013/14* Share 2014/15** Share % change 2013/14 - 2014/15£m % £m %

Birds Eye (Iglo Foods Group^) 180 25 169 24 -6.1Young’s (Findus Group^^) 154 21 149 22 -3.2Whitby 7 1 6 1 -14.3Other brands 16 2 13 2 -18.8Own-label 369 51 375 53 +1.6Total 726 100 705 100 -2.9

Value 2013/14* Share 2014/15** Share % change 2013/14 - 2014/15m kg % m kg %

Birds Eye (Iglo Foods Group)^ 29 24 28 25 -3.4Young’s (Findus Group)^^ 26 22 25 22 -3.8Whitby 1 1 1 1 -Other brands 2 2 1 1 -50.0Own-label 62 52 59 52 -4.8Total 120 100 114 100 -5.0

* 52 w/e 19 July 2014

** 52 w/e 18 July 2015

^ Iglo Foods Group was acquired by Nomad Food in June 2015

^^ following the sale of Findus’ European operations to Nomad Group in August 2015, Young’s comes under a new holding company entitled Young’s Seafood International

Holdings Ltd.




Price rises take their toll on Youngs’ volume sales

The other leading brand, Young’s, held its market share by value, but this came at the expense of volume sales. While looking to hold its ground in the struggling segment, Young’s seems confident in

its Gastro premium range. The brand extended it with new products in March 2015, including the first fish and sauce addition dishes, and again in August.

The range was also the focus of the first ads in its new marketing campaign, as Young’s stepped up its ad spend during

the year. This supported a rebranding exercise for the Young’s brand in the spring, however this had not fed through to a turnaround in sales for the 52 weeks to July. Though not affecting its branded sales, the processor lost a major fish supply contract with Sainsbury’s in July 2015.



Brand communication and promotion


Ad spend in the fish and shellfish market leaped ahead in 2013, subsequently falling by a third in 2014 as it returned back to the levels typical in the market in recent years. Birds Eye was mainly responsible for the sharp rise in adspend in 2013, as it stepped up the support for its Fish Fusions and fish fingers.

The company increased its adspend again in 2014, though by only a moderate 4%. However, this was not enough to make up for the cutbacks in spend by the likes of Young’s, Saucy Fish and Tesco, which saw overall adspend in this market fall sharply. FIGURE 26: RECORDED ABOVE-THE-LINE, ONLINE DISPLAY AND DIRECT

MAIL TOTAL ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE ON FISH AND SHELLFISH, 2011-15 Birds Eye extends its lead in adpend in 2014

Following the leap in its ad spend in 2013, Birds Eye’s share of the total in the market reached nearly a third in 2014 as it bucked the trend of cutbacks by many competitors. It launched the new The Food of Life marketing concept in 2014, which highlighted mealtimes as a chance for people to come together and connect and sought to position Birds Eye food at the centre of these, including fish.

Birds Eye’s adspend on fish and shellfish looks to fall markedly in 2015, however, the year saw it launch the ‘Mix Up Your Menu’ campaign. This includes a partnership with ITV and the food blogger Katie Bryson. The ads aim to offer ideas for families on how to serve Birds Eye food in “new and interesting ways”, with recipes demonstrated by Ms Bryson, such as fish finger pie.

As well as the ads on ITV, activity includes PR, a dedicated microsite and social media activity with the hash tag #BirdsEyeMixItUp, and competitions inviting fans to submit recipe ideas. By positioning Birds Eye’s meal components as ingredients rather than a finished product, the campaign is aimed to tap into the popularity of cooking at home. The weak image of frozen breaded fish as versatile suggests a role for such initiatives to support regular usage (see Qualities Associated with Different Formats of Fish/Shellfish).

Experiential activity by the brand in April 2015 looked to drive awareness of the scope for frozen food to curb food waste, thereby saving money. An ice block with money frozen inside in the shape of a fish featured on London’s South Bank, inviting passers-by to collect cash as the ice melted. This formed part of the brand’s wider ‘iFreeze, iSave’ campaign during the year, which also entailed TV ads and the www.ifreeze.how website.


Source: Nielsen Media Research/Mintel



FIGURE 27: RECORDED ABOVE-THE-LINE, ONLINE DISPLAY AND DIRECT MAIL TOTAL ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE ON FISH AND SHELLFISH, BY TOP 15 ADVERTISERS (SORTED BY 2014), 2011-15*

Spend 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Change 2013-14£000 £000 £000 £000 £000 %

Birds Eye 3,055 1,860 4,185 4,334 1,843 +3.6Asda 429 1,752 1,286 2,001 557 +55.6Sainsbury’s 270 206 1,017 1,540 238 +51.4Morrison 969 1,464 2,535 1,333 1,097 -47.4Iceland 217 - 488 1,292 4,681 +164.8Aldi 732 316 34 1,094 304 +3117.6Young’s 2,216 2,387 3,747 736 1,964 -80.4Tesco 515 1,502 1,922 275 144 -85.7Lidl - 149 462 252 1,444 -45.5Marks & Spencer - 110 - 228 25 NaFarmfoods Ltd - - 190 204 101 +7.4Saucy Fish Co 467 1,914 2,274 202 614 -91.1Alaska Seafood 24 16 36 76 10 +111.1Princes 43 96 46 30 9 -34.8John West 1,856 1,033 1,039 29 40 -97.2Other brands 2,051 621 1,431 144 299 -89.9Total 12,844 13,426 20,692 13,770 13,370 -33.5

Share 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Change 2013-14% % % % % % point

Birds Eye 23.8 13.9 20.2 31.5 13.8 +11.2Asda 3.3 13.0 6.2 14.5 4.2 +8.3Sainsbury’s 2.1 1.5 4.9 11.2 1.8 +6.3Morrison 7.5 10.9 12.3 9.7 8.2 -2.6Iceland 1.7 - 2.4 9.4 35.0 +7.0Aldi 5.7 2.4 0.2 7.9 2.3 +7.8Young’s 17.3 17.8 18.1 5.3 14.7 -12.8Tesco 4.0 11.2 9.3 2.0 1.1 -7.3Lidl - 1.1 2.2 1.8 10.8 -0.4Marks & Spencer - 0.8 - 1.7 0.2 +1.7Farmfoods Ltd - - 0.9 1.5 0.8 +0.6Saucy Fish Co 3.6 14.3 11.0 1.5 4.6 -9.5Alaska Seafood 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 +0.4Princes 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 -John West 14.5 7.7 5.0 0.2 0.3 -4.8Other brands 16.0 4.6 6.9 1.0 2.2 -5.9Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 -

Note - Sorted by 2014


Source: Nielsen Media Research/Mintel



Iceland becomes the top spender in 2015

While many of the top spenders of 2014 cut back in 2015, a handful of players stepped up spend to see the overall level maintained. The frozen foods retailer Iceland stands out, growing its ad spend three-fold to more than £4 million for January-October 2015.

The support for its fish and seafood range came as part of its new Power of Frozen campaign, debuted in May 2015. The campaign centres around the proposition that freezing the food allows Iceland to provide high-quality food from authentic sources, by ‘locking in’ the taste and nutrients. The TV ads were supported by print and video-on-demand content, social media activity (#PowerofFrozen), a dedicated website (www.poweroffrozen.co.uk/) and sampling.

Cooked and peeled North Atlantic prawns featured as part of the opening campaign, while oysters and lobsters were highlighted as part of the brand’s 2015 Christmas campaign. This followed the “You'll be amazed at what you find at Iceland” ads with the brand ambassador Peter Andre cooking a range of fish and seafood products including fish fingers, salmon fillets and scallops.

Iceland has also looked to boost its foodie credentials through a tie-up with Holly Bell, featuring recipe videos by the Great British Bake Off finalist on its website, including for scallops and salmon.

Lidl invests heavily in advertising in 2015

Lidl stepped up its ad spend in the category noticeably, from a modest £0.25 million in 2014 to £1.5 million in January-October 2015. Most of the spend focused on its Deluxe Salmon & Prawn, La Caldera Wholetail Scampi and Scottish Mussels,

continuing Lidl’s focus on strengthening its quality and premium credentials such as through ads featuring taste tests. The scampi for example featured in an ad pitting it against that of Young’s Seafood and stating that 56% of the test group preferred Lidl’s.

Also looking to cement its foodie credentials, Lidl secured Kevin Love as its ‘chef in residence’ in spring 2015. The Michelin-starred chef features in recipe videos and will participate in NPD. Lidl also launched a partnership with the online site Mumsnet in September 2015. This includes product promotions across the site’s food pages and newsletters and videos from Mumsnet’s vloggers sharing their experience of shopping at Lidl. As 67% of food buyers would be swayed to try a new product by a friend’s recommendation, such ‘real life’ reviews look well-placed to appeal (see Attitudes towards Innovation in the Food Market – UK, July 2015).

Aldi pits its fish fingers against leading brand in 2014

Having stepped up its ad spend on fish in 2014, Aldi moderated its activity in this segment in 2015. The boost in 2014 came as the discounter pitted its fish fingers against a leading brand as part of its ‘Like Brands’ campaign. It also targeted Scotland with an ad highlighting the Scottish origin of its chilled fish in 2015, featuring local school children exploring its supply chain.

2015 also saw it ramp up the social media push for its #AldiChallenge campaign, inviting shoppers to share on Twitter the savings they made by switching to Aldi. Also targeting the social media space, the discounter launched the ‘Taste Channel’ on YouTube in autumn 2015. The channel features recipe videos by ‘foodies’ like Great British Bake Off finalist Luis Troyano, TV chef Simon Wood, and food blogger Clare Zerny.

Young’s unveils new TV ads for Gastro range in 2015

Following a lull in its ad spend in 2014, Young’s stepped up activity again in 2015, supporting a rebranding exercise. Aimed to “reaffirm its commitment to quality, leadership and innovation”, this included an updated packaging design featuring the Grimsby coastal landscape and a ‘recipe card’ approach on the front of pack.

The new ad campaign features Malcolm the Cat, voiced by the actor Rupert Everett. The first ad, centering on the brand’s basa fillets and cod gratin is narrated by the cat ‘salivating’ over the dishes eaten by household members and drawing attention to the taste and quality credentials of the meals. The brand has also looked to drive awareness on social media, for example creating a Twitter account for Malcolm. Promotional activity was due to include in-store marketing and a range of promotions.

As part of the campaign, an ad also marked the 30th anniversary of its Chip Shop brand in spring 2015. A microsite and an app were also created, inviting consumers to create their favourite Chip Shop fish supper, including the type of fish, sides and sauces, to win themed prizes.

NMR Methodology

Nielsen Media Research (NMR) tracks advertising via the following channels: television, radio, press, internet display advertising, outdoor, cinema, direct mail and door drops. Spend on video, mobile, sponsorship, search and social is not currently measured by Nielsen Media Research. For most channels covered, Nielsen does not measure expenditure directly, but estimates it by monitoring usage and applying average measures of expenditure.

THE CONSUMER




Similar levels of usage across different formats

Frozen, ambient and chilled fish enjoy fairly high levels of usage; all are eaten at least once a week by approximately three in 10 UK adults.

Parents with children aged 6-12 and consumers from large households are the most regular users of frozen fish, which illustrates the important role these products have for family meals.



Fish is mainly eaten for dinner, and this is particularly pronounced for frozen breaded fish/shellfish, with the extra cooking time likely to be a factor in this. However, despite requiring no cooking time, chilled and cured ready-to-eat options are more likely to be eaten for dinner than lunch.

Tinned is the only format which has its highest level of usage for lunch, indicating that breaking further into the dinner occasion is needed to grow the segment. The major branded players in this market have already made strides towards this goal through NPD.

Confidence in cooking and speed is key

Feeling comfortable and confident with cooking a certain type or format of fish/shellfish is of paramount importance for consumers when buying these, cited by 54% of buyers. Being quick to cook is also a key attribute (53%), relating to the wider appeal of fairly speedy dinners.

Oily fish have the edge over white fish

Significantly more people look for fish which is high in Omega 3 (47%) than look for options which are low in fat/calories (29%), indicating a high level of awareness of the health benefits of Omega-3 which oily fish can provide. Furthermore, oily fish is widely seen as good for skin health.

A minority look for indications of sustainability

Only just over a third (35%) of fish/shellfish buyers seek out products which are labelled as sustainable. That this isn’t higher relates to the fact that this has become an expected attribute; 76% of users expect retailers to ensure all their fish/shellfish is sustainably sourced.


Highlighting a willingness among consumers to ‘do their bit’ is that 63% of users would avoid eating species of fish/shellfish if they knew they were endangered. This suggests there is more scope to raise awareness of which fish/shellfish consumers should avoid to lessen pressure on stocks.

Demand for healthier coated fish options

Frozen breaded fish is seen as the least nutritious format of fish and the most processed. Yet being seen to be nutritious is important for these products given that they are often part of family meals. As such, there is a strong demand for healthier coated fish products, particularly among mothers of under-16s (71% compared to the average of 58%).

Many consumers are hungry for more recipe suggestions

Six in 10 users expressed an interest in finding out more ways to use oily fish in dishes, with this perhaps seen as the most difficult type of fish to pair with other ingredients because of its typically stronger flavour. Over half of users would also welcome more suggestions about using fish in ethnic-style dishes. The fact that people would like more guidance is likely to stem from consumers not associating fish with being versatile.

Plain fish has the strongest connotations with being nutritious

Chilled, unflavoured fish stands out as having the most nutritious image, which is likely to be directly linked to this format having minimal processing compared to the other types. However, as soon as any extra processing is involved, consumers’ trust in these formats being nutritious drops. This illustrates a need for companies to raise awareness of how smoked, tinned and frozen fish still delivers on nutritional excellence.



Usage of fish and shellfish

Similar levels of usage across different formats…

Frozen, ambient and chilled fish enjoy fairly high levels of usage; all are eaten at least once a week by approximately three in 10 UK adults. However, people generally fail to eat the recommended two portions of fish per week (see Market Drivers), indicating significant growth potential in this market.

…but frozen has the edge

Frozen fish just has the edge over chilled in usage frequency. The lower cost of these products and their longer shelf life can make these a more accessible option for day-to-day consumption. That parents with children aged 6-12 and consumers from large households are the most regular users within the segment illustrates the important role these products have for family meals. Fish fingers, for example, are a firm favourite among young children and are likely to be a convenient freezer staple for many.

FIGURE 28: FREQUENCY OF EATING FISH AND SHELLFISH, BY FORMAT, SEPTEMBER 2015

"How often, if at all, have you eaten the following types of fish and shellfish at home or as part of a packed lunch in the last 3 months?"

The popularity of breaded fish products relates to these being an easy way to introduce fish to children, given that there is widespread agreement that it is important to include fish in children’s diets.

However, there have been high levels of innovation in the frozen breaded fish market which take a more adult-oriented positioning, through premiumisation, ethnic flavours and more interesting textures (see Launch Activity and Innovation).

Socio-economic factors influence choice of format


The strong popularity of chilled fish and shellfish among ABs is also likely to be linked to these consumers being the keenest and most confident scratch cooks (Consumer Attitudes Towards Cooking in

the Home – UK, February 2014), with this format lending itself most to this. The rise in scratch cooking is therefore benefiting this segment, and the rise in consumer spending also stands it in good stead (see Market Drivers).

However shellfish in all formats also displays a skew towards the upper socio-economic groups: 60% of ABs eat shellfish, compared to 46% of C1C2s and 35% of DEs. This echoes the more upmarket image of shellfish overall, this also supported by shellfish dishes being a mainstay at high-end restaurants. A wider availability of shellfish in formats such as ambient cans and pots, which are already flavoured/come with a sauce, could help to break down barriers for some consumers who are less familiar with this type of seafood.






FIGURE 29: OCCASIONS FOR EATING FISH/SHELLFISH, BY TYPE, SEPTEMBER 2015

"Which, if any, of the following occasions have you eaten the following types of fish/shellfish in the last month?"

Fish is mainly eaten for dinner, and this is particularly pronounced for frozen breaded fish/shellfish, with low levels of usage for lunch, and almost nothing for breakfast/lunch. The fact that many people eat lunch out of the home most days is a major factor driving this. The extra cooking time may also be a barrier, with speed more of the essence typically for lunch than dinner.

There could nonetheless be scope for companies to push the lunchtime occasion for these products. Given that fish fingers only take 12-15 minutes to cook, the fish finger sandwich provides a convenient lunchtime meal at home. These have become a popular part of many foodservice menus particularly in pubs. This shows that people enjoy this combination, so a reminder of the easiness of recreating these dishes at home for either lunch or a weekend brunch could help to drive usage. That these

can be made into a relatively healthy and nutritious lunches – for example with wholemeal bread and salad - should help to drive their appeal among health conscious consumers.

Despite requiring no cooking time, chilled and cured ready-to-eat options are more likely to be eaten for dinner than lunch. Concerns about smell are likely to be a barrier for including these products in a packed lunch for example. While there is nothing that can be done about this, there is perhaps scope for companies and brands to encourage more in-home lunchtime consumption as a good way for consumers to reach their recommended two portions of fish a week.

The major branded players in this market have already made strides towards this goal through NPD. For example, far more ethnic flavours are now present in tinned fish, helping to drive associations with main evening meals. Princes has flagged up on-pack that its mackerel can be served hot as well as cold, which further helps these products to be thought of as potential components for hot evening meals.

Recipes suggestions can also provide inspiration for using tinned fish for evening meals. John West offers a free recipe ebook which can be downloaded from its website. Meanwhile, Bart Van Olden from the Fish Tales brand has published a book entitled Cooking with Tinned Fish.

Only tinned is driven by lunchtime usage

Tinned is the only format which has its highest level of usage for lunch, indicating that breaking further into the dinner occasion is needed to grow the segment.

Base: 1,253, 1516 and 1,356 internet users aged 16+ who have eaten chilled fish/shellfish, frozen fish/shellfish and not chilled or frozen shellfish respectively




Choice factors

Confidence in cooking is key

With bones being one of the major hassles of preparing and eating fish, it is little wonder that most consumers are keen to avoid these, this being the single most important choice factor for consumers buying fish. Evidently products which can alleviate consumers’ concerns about bones are likely to appeal and being boneless warrants ’at a glance’ visibility on-pack. Worries about bones relate to the wider importance of confidence when cooking fish.

Feeling comfortable and confident with cooking a certain type or format of fish/shellfish is of paramount importance for consumers when making purchases of this nature. This is likely to see many consumers sticking to ‘tried and tested’ options and presents a barrier to expanding repertoires. This helps to explain why the ‘big five’ types of fish/shellfish (cod, haddock, tuna, salmon and prawns) dominate the market. This compounds sustainability issues, as discussed in more detail in Attitudes towards Fish and Shellfish.

In order to encourage consumers to try a new fish product for the first time it is therefore important to clearly communicate how consumers should cook the fish – on front of pack if possible - and any cues relating to easiness should resonate. Making direct comparisons to the ‘big five’, for example flagging up that a product can be cooked “just like cod” should also help to lower boundaries to experimenting with different fish,

Concerns about how to cook fish correctly are being addressed by added-value NPD, with Saucy Fish and Young’s Gastro being key examples. The bagged format (with sauce) which goes straight into the

oven and steam cooks the fish creates a strong ‘sure to succeed’ message. More importantly perhaps, it removes any need for preparation, for example The Saucy Fish Co. flags up on front of pack of its Foil Bake Bag products that it is ‘no touch, no smell, no fuss’.

Speed is also of the essence

Being quick to cook is also a key attribute, relating to the wider appeal of fairly speedy dinners. The majority of UK adults (68%) would prefer to spend 30 minutes or less on preparing a typical evening meal (see Red Meat – UK, October 2015). Under-25s

want meals to take the least time; 42% prefer meals to be ready in 20 minutes or less. This stems from the time pressures in people’s daily lives, as discussed in Mintel’s trend, FSTR HYPR. This highlights how convenience is becoming increasingly important as part of the trend towards emphasising immediacy and time.

Fish and shellfish can benefit here over other proteins because of their typically very quick cooking time, which could help to sway shoppers away from red meat or protein. Communicating exactly how quick products are to cook is therefore important and warrants visibility on the front of pack.

FIGURE 30: PERCEIVED IMPORTANCE OF FACTORS WHEN BUYING FISH/SHELLFISH, SEPTEMBER 2015

"Which, if any, of the following factors are most important to you when buying fish/shellfish?"

Base: 1,385 internet users aged 16+ who buy fish/shellfish




Oily fish have the edge over white fish

Significantly more people look for fish which is high in Omega 3 (47%) than look for options which are low in fat/calories (29%). This suggests a high level of awareness of the health benefits of Omega-3 which oily fish can provide, even though these fish are higher in calories and fat than white fish.

Over-65s are the most interested in buying fish which has a high Omega 3 content (54%), reflecting older cohorts paying most attention to diet- and health-related issues. As such, the older generation are the core audience for functional products, showing the most concern about health issues like heart health which is a well-established benefit of Omega-3 (see Attitudes towards Healthy Eating – UK, February 2015). 25-34s, meanwhile, are most interested in fish being low in fat and calories, directly linked to this age group being most likely to be dieters (Dieting Trends – UK, November 2013).

Helping to meet the strong demand for oily fish is the surge in activity in this area within the tinned market in 2015, seeing claims relating to cardiovascular functionality reach a five-year high (see Launch Activity and Innovation).

However, it is not just heart health which is helping to drive the appeal of oily fish; it is

widely thought that this type of fish is good for skin health, with 76% in agreement (see Attitudes towards Fish and Shellfish). This provides a key selling point for oily fish, given that desire to improve one’s appearance emerges as one of the top motivations for making healthy changes to current lifestyles, with 45% of adults citing this as a driver according to Healthy Lifestyles – UK, November 2015. This proportion rises to 57% of under-45s and 68% of female under-25s.

While explicit claims relating to skin health would not meet EFSA approval, more subtle marketing messages relating to the appearance of skin would help to solidify the link between oily fish and healthy skin and encourage higher levels of usage among young consumers, females in particular.

A minority look for marks of sustainability

A lesser consideration for shoppers than factors relating to price, speed and convenience, only just over a third seek out products which are labelled as sustainable. That this isn’t higher relates to the fact that this has become an expected attribute, rather than reflecting consumers’ lack of interest in sustainability issues. 76% of users expect retailers to ensure all their fish/shellfish is sustainably sourced (see Attitudes towards Fish and Shellfish). This is congruent with the Mintel Trend,

Moral Brands, which finds consumers are looking for brands to be ethically and environmentally-responsible on their behalf.

Scope to push British fish

Fish being caught off the UK coast is a consideration for only a quarter, although this rises to 35% of ABs. There are opportunities for companies which offer fish and shellfish caught by UK fishermen from the UK coast to be more vocal about this fact to tap into consumers’ sense of patriotism. Mintel’s Patriot Games trend looks at how national patriotism has grown as a counter-trend to marketplace globalisation, with consumers keen to show support to their own country.

This has been seen widely elsewhere in the food industry, with brands such as Yeo Valley shouting about its support of ‘British Family Farms’. However, there has not been a similar push for British fishermen, suggesting that brands which do this could create a USP. Given that sustainability is losing its power as a differentiator between products, this could be valuable. Providing consumers with more information on exactly where the fish they buy was caught around the UK coast, and even on what boat, could resonate. John West has done this with its online fish tracker, however none of the products are caught close to the UK.



Attitudes towards fish and shellfish


Highlighting a willingness among consumers to ‘do their bit’ by making changes to their habits is that 63% of users would avoid eating species of fish/shellfish if they knew they were endangered. This suggests there is more scope to raise awareness of which fish/shellfish consumers should avoid to lessen pressure on stocks. Supermarkets which take this action will show themselves in a positive light through their commitment to responsible sourcing.

The key to ensuring that people do not switch out of the fish category altogether

to avoid endangered species is to offer suggestions for easy substitutes, which are as similar as possible in terms of flavour and texture, and also in terms of how to cook. The latter is particularly important given that most consumers’ choice of fish/shellfish is reliant on them knowing how to cook it (see Choice Factors). The MSC suggests people try pollack, gurnard or mackerel instead of tuna, for example. This can help consumers to become less reliant on the five most popular options: cod, haddock, tuna, salmon and prawns.

Sainsbury’s is an advocate of this approach, with the annual “Switch the Fish Day” – which entered its fourth year

in 2015 - forming part of the retailers’ commitment to sustainable fish. This has seen the supermarket give away less popular fish to encourage shoppers to expand their repertoires.

The move by retailers to provide advice on how consumers can help in this matter ties in with Mintel’s trend, Guiding Choice. This outlines how too much information can prove to be overwhelming, and a lack of time means that consumers’ are looking for shortcuts to speed up the decision process.

FIGURE 31: ATTITUDES TOWARDS FISH/SHELLFISH, SEPTEMBER 2015

"To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?"

Base: 1,701 internet users aged 16+ who eat fish/shellfish

(a) eg a tub you can put in the fridge

(b) eg with a wholegrain crumb, lower in fat

(c) eg salmon, mackerel etc

(d) eg on packaging, on brand websites




Demand for healthier coated fish options

Frozen breaded fish is seen as the least nutritious format of fish (see Qualities Associated with Different Formats of Fish/Shellfish). This relates to its more processed image and many people’s more positive associations with fresh produce than frozen overall. As such, chilled fish stands out as being seen to offer most nutritional value.

Yet being seen to be nutritious is important for these products given that they are often part of family meals – reflected in parents with children aged 6-12 and large households being the most frequent users of frozen fish product. As such, there is a strong demand for healthier coated fish products, particularly among mothers of under-16s (71% compared to the average of 58%).

Wholegrain coatings provide a simple route to improving the health credentials of these products, and Birds Eye unveiled Wholegrain Fish Fingers in spring 2015 (see Launch Activity and Innovation). Flagging up on packaging that this product comprises 100% fish fillet and 100% wholegrain breadcrumbs should help to quell concerns about fish fingers not being a healthy choice.

As well as there being opportunities for other products to follow suit companies can also go further down the healthiness route through looking to other health-boosting ingredients for fish coatings. Given that there is a wealth of recipes online for homemade healthier fish coating, for example ones made with oats, quinoa or even chia seeds, this could also translate into NPD in the retail arena.

As well as the well-established health attributes of such ingredients, this would also provide more than the typical breaded fish product in terms of texture. Currently ‘healthier’ variants are often lightly coated, offering a less pronounced texture. Using ingredients such as ancient grains or seeds could provide the more crunchy texture of standard coated fish. Birds Eye Inspirations Crunchy Tortilla, Chilli & Lime Breaded plays in this space texturally, though without the added health aspect.

Resealable packaging can add value

Resealable packaging is a highly popular feature across the food market, with a similar high level of interest for fish and shellfish products, indicating that this type of packaging could help to add value to this market. John West already offers this with its Infusions range (see Launch Activity and Innovation).

The demand for more resealable packaging indicates that people often don’t want to use all of a product in one go. An alternative solution would be to provide single portion products. For example, operators could take cues from the snap-pack format seen within baked beans, allowing consumers to break off a single portion of fish to use as a sandwich filling for example.

Many consumers are hungry for more recipe suggestions

Despite consumers having an almost limitless, instant supply of recipe ideas online, there remains demand for more recipe inspiration for fish. Six in 10 users expressed an interest in finding out more ways to use oily fish in dishes, this perhaps

seen as the most difficult type of fish to pair with other ingredients because of its typically stronger flavour. Over half of users would also welcome more suggestions about using fish in ethnic-style dishes.

That people would like more guidance is likely to stem from fish not being seen as versatile (see Qualities Associated with Different Formats of Fish/Shellfish). Fish is losing out to poultry in particular, which is well-known to suit a variety of different cuisines. Indeed, ethnic meals look to be a go-to option when cooking poultry at home; three quarters of poultry eaters report to cook chicken in ethnic-style dishes (see Poultry and Game Meat – UK, October 2015).

While prawns and king prawns are regulars in ethnic meals in foodservice, options featuring fish as their main ingredient are rarer. Therefore inspiration from foodservice is a limited driver for people looking to recreate their own fish-based ethnic meals at home.

Therefore, any steps brands/retailers can take to provide new ideas can help to encourage purchasing, whether online, on-pack, on recipe cards in-store or via recipe of the week/month type campaigns. Any tie-ups with other ingredients which feature in these recipes or meal deal promotions can help to drive the visibility. Encouraging people to send in their recipe ideas and upload photos of their dishes on social media could also encourage experimentation with fish.

There could also be scope for more brands to follow the example of the Birds Eye Mix Up Your Menu campaign and use vloggers to visually demonstrate to people how to create dishes.



Qualities associated with different formats of fish

Methodology

Correspondence analysis is a statistical visualisation method for picturing the associations between rows (image, attitudes) and columns (brands, products, segments, etc) of a two-way contingency table. It is generally used to display information in a complex crosstab (eg attitudes related to a certain product or images consumers associate with a brand) in a joint space that is easy to understand by simply interpreting proximities. The significance of the relationship between a brand or product for instance and its associated image is measured using

the Chi-square test. If two objects have similar response patterns regarding their perceived images/attitudes, they are assigned similar scores on underlying dimensions and will then be displayed close to each other in the perceptual map.

Fish benefits from overall positive perceptions

Signalling an overall favourable perception of fish in its various formats, consumers are more likely to have positive associations with fish than negative associations. For example, only a small minority see fish in any format

as unhealthy, low quality, boring or old fashioned. Importantly, all the types of fish scored fairly highly as tasty. As expected this was notably higher among users.

This positive image of fish bodes well for the market’s growth as consumer spending gathers momentum, indicating that it has largely been the high price of this type of protein which has held the market back during the prolonged squeeze on consumers’ real incomes.

However, there are some stark differences in consumers’ associations with the different formats.

FIGURE 32: CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS – FISH AND SHELLFISH, SEPTEMBER 2015

"Which, if any, of the following words do you typically associate with the following products?"





FIGURE 33: SELECTED QUALITIES ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT FORMATS OF FISH/SHELLFISH, SEPTEMBER 2015

FIGURE 34: FURTHER SELECTED QUALITIES ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT FORMATS OF FISH/SHELLFISH, SEPTEMBER 2015







Plain fish has the strongest connotations with being nutritious

Chilled, unflavoured fish stands out as having the most nutritious image, which is likely to be directly linked to this format having minimal processing compared to the other types. The lack of processing means that there has been no chance for anything to be either added or lost and promotes this image as nutritious. There is already widespread agreement that fish is an important part of a healthy diet thanks to its nutritional qualities.

However, as soon as any extra processing is involved in the preparation of fish, consumers’ trust in these formats being nutritious drops. This illustrates a need for companies to raise awareness of how smoked, tinned and frozen fish still delivers on nutritional excellence. Indeed, where possible it would be good to highlight that the nutritional value remains the same before and after its processing. For example, the omega-3 fatty acid content of oily fish such as mackerel, sardines and salmon in cans is comparable to that found in fresh fish, according to the British Nutrition Foundation, although this does not apply to tuna.

Chilled marinated fish scores particularly low on perceptions of being nutritious, cited by just 17% of adults. This clearly stems from consumers’ concerns about what ingredients have been added, including “nasties” such as fat, salt and sugar. There is also potential for there to be artificial colours or flavourings added, and consumers’ wariness of anything artificial is well-known. Indeed, one of the major motivations for scratch cooking

is the peace of mind which comes with knowing exactly what has gone into a dish.

Therefore it is important for these products to assuage consumers’ worries about what has been added and/or what the process involves, with a focus on naturalness likely to appeal. Drawing attention to that fact that the nutritional values of the fish has not been compromised through marinating can help to drive interest in these products among health-conscious consumers.

Frozen breaded fish and tinned fish/shellfish stand out on convenience

Frozen breaded fish is most commonly seen as offering good value for money, benefitting this market during cash-strapped times and helping to drive its appeal as an everyday family meal option. This is supported by the finding that these products are most frequently used by parents with young children and those in large households.

The drawback of these products is their image of being processed, which may see people trade up and out of these products as they relax their grocery budgets. Any steps that players in this market can take to reassure consumers of the simplicity of the both the process and the recipe (ie with a very short list of ingredients) could help to overturn this perception. Birds Eye already draws attention to its fish fingers being made from 100% fish fillet, for example.

Supermarkets could grab a bigger slice of the breaded fish market by offering these at their fish counters. Here they

can communicate the simplicity of the process, just involving plain fish, whisked eggs and crumbs, and that these products are made by hand to provide an artisanal element. Extending this idea further, they could make these to order there and then, providing consumers with a choice of which fish they would like and also which type of crumb (eg lemon and pepper, spicy). This ‘made to order’ approach would help to create a sense of in-store theatre, and the novelty of this is likely to attract attention. Alternatively, they could provide shoppers with the fish and the coating for them to make the fish fingers themselves at home.

Cured fish has the most sophisticated image

With products like smoked salmon conjuring up images of luxury breakfasts perhaps accompanied by Bucks Fizz, starters for special meals or party canapés, it is no wonder that cured fish has the closest associations with sophistication. This is great news for these products around Christmas for example, but perhaps means that purchasing of these products remains quite heavily driven by special occasions.

Highlighting that these products are also good for everyday meals as well as special treats could help to boost usage. Products which are more accessible price-wise, as seen in the retailers’ economy ranges which use the offcuts of the premium slices, could do well here. Combining such products with recipe ideas – for example suggesting it as a healthy swap to bacon in a Carbonara – can help to drive awareness here.

APPENDIX



Data sources, abbreviations and supporting information

Data sources

Value figures throughout this report are at retail selling prices (rsp) and include VAT, unless stated otherwise.

Market sizes at constant 2015 prices are devised using Mintel’s food deflator.

Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen’s Printer for Scotland.

Fan chart forecast

Mintel has produced this forecast based on an advanced statistical technique known as ‘multivariate time series auto-regression’ using the statistical software package SPSS.

The model is based on historical market size data taken from Mintel’s own market size database supplemented by macro- and socio-economic data sourced from leading organizations (eg Office for National Statistics, HM Treasury, Bank of England). Since August 2013, in a joint agreement, Mintel has been using the continually updated databank from the respected economic and political analysts, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), to allow more timely and creditable forecasts. The model searches for relationships between actual market sizes and a selection of key economic and demographic determinants (independent variables) in order to identify those predictors having the most influence on the market.

For the forecast of selected Fish and Shellfish, the total market is made up of three segments. The following predictor variable(s) were used to forecast each individual segment:

Chilled fish and shellfish: Working age population for value and GDP for volume sales.

Frozen fish and shellfish: Population aged 5-9 for both value and volume sales

Ambient fish and shellfish: Total population and consumer expenditure for value and the total number of people in employment for volume sales.

Next to historical market sizes and a current-year estimate, the fan chart illustrates the probability of various outcomes for the market value of fish and shellfish market over the next five years.

The future uncertainty within this market is illustrated by the coloured bands around the five-year forecast. The widening bands successively show the developments that occur within 95%, 90%, 70% and 50% probability intervals. Statistical processes predict the central forecast to fall within the darker shaded area which illustrates 50% probability ie a five in 10 chance.

At a 95% confidence interval, we are saying that 95 out of 100 times, the forecast will fall within these outer limits, which we call the best- and worst-case forecast as these, based on the statistically driven forecast, are the highest (best case) and lowest (worst case) market sizes the market is expected to achieve.

Abbreviations

ASC Aquaculture Stewardship CouncilAWE Average Weekly PayCPI Consumer Price Index

GNPD Global New Products Database. For further details, please contact Mintel on 020 7606 4533

L/N/R Low/No/ReducedMAT Moving Annual TotalMSC Marine Stewardship CouncilNielsen Media Research

For further information, please contact [email protected]

NHS National Health ServiceNPD New Product DevelopmentPOS Point of SaleUSP Unique Selling Point

Consumer research methodology

Mintel commissioned consumer research for this report to assess consumer purchasing of and attitudes towards fish and shellfish. Research was carried out by Lightspeed GMI among 2,000 internet users aged 16+ in September 2015. Detailed demographics are given in the Databook.



Market size and forecast

FIGURE 35: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF FISH AND SHELLFISH, BEST AND WORST CASE FORECAST, BY VALUE, 2015-20

Worst case forecast Index % annual

changeMintel

forecast Index % annual change

Best case forecast Index % annual

change£m £m £m

2015 (est) 3,409 100 na 3,409 100 na 3,409 100 na2016 (fore) 2,958 87 -13.2 3,472 102 +1.9 4,002 117 +17.42017 (fore) 2,947 86 -0.4 3,524 103 +1.5 4,114 121 +2.82018 (fore) 2,959 87 +0.4 3,586 105 +1.8 4,223 124 +2.72019 (fore) 2,973 87 +0.5 3,652 107 +1.9 4,344 127 +2.92020 (fore) 2,997 88 +0.8 3,736 110 +2.3 4,499 132 +3.6


FIGURE 36: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF FISH AND SHELLFISH, BEST AND WORST CASE FORECAST, BY VOLUME, 2015-20


changeMintel



changem kg m kg m kg

2015 (est) 361 100 na 361 100 na 361 100 na2016 (fore) 317 88 -12.2 358 99 -0.9 399 111 10.52017 (fore) 312 86 -1.6 357 99 -0.2 403 112 1.02018 (fore) 308 85 -1.2 358 99 0.1 407 113 1.02019 (fore) 305 84 -1.1 358 99 0.3 412 114 1.32020 (fore) 301 83 -1.2 359 99 0.0 416 115 0.9


FIGURE 37: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF CHILLED FISH AND SHELLFISH, BEST AND WORST CASE FORECAST, BY VALUE, 2015-20


changeMintel



change£m £m £m

2015 (est) 2,194 100 na 2,194 100 na 2,194 100 na2016 (fore) 1,899 87 -13.5 2,271 103 +3.5 2,643 120 +20.42017 (fore) 1,900 87 +0.1 2,324 106 +2.3 2,748 125 +4.02018 (fore) 1,919 87 +1.0 2,384 109 +2.6 2,848 130 +3.62019 (fore) 1,945 89 +1.3 2,453 112 +2.9 2,960 135 +3.92020 (fore) 1,978 90 +1.7 2,541 116 +3.6 3,104 141 +4.9




FIGURE 38: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF CHILLED FISH AND SHELLFISH, BEST AND WORST CASE FORECAST, BY VOLUME, 2015-20


changeMintel




2015 (est) 168 100 na 168 100 na 168 100 na2016 (fore) 160 95 -4.8 172 102 +2.1 183 109 +9.12017 (fore) 162 96 +1.1 175 104 +2.0 189 112 +2.92018 (fore) 164 98 +1.5 180 107 +2.6 195 116 +3.52019 (fore) 167 99 +1.6 185 110 +2.9 203 121 +4.12020 (fore) 169 101 +1.2 189 113 +2.3 210 125 +3.1


FIGURE 39: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF FROZEN FISH AND SHELLFISH, BEST AND WORST CASE FORECAST, BY VALUE, 2015-20


changeMintel



change£m £m £m

2015 (est) 689 100 na 689 100 na 689 100 na2016 (fore) 588 85 -14.7 670 97 -2.8 751 109 +9.12017 (fore) 562 82 -4.4 653 95 -2.4 744 108 -0.92018 (fore) 544 79 -3.3 641 93 -1.8 739 107 -0.82019 (fore) 522 76 -4.1 627 91 -2.2 732 106 -0.92020 (fore) 504 73 -3.4 616 89 -1.8 728 106 -0.7


FIGURE 40: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF FROZEN FISH AND SHELLFISH, BEST AND WORST CASE FORECAST, BY VOLUME, 2015-20


changeMintel




2015 (est) 110 100 na 110 100 na 110 100 na2016 (fore) 90 81 -18.6 105 96 -4.5 121 110 +9.82017 (fore) 83 76 -6.8 101 92 -3.9 119 108 -1.72018 (fore) 79 72 -5.0 98 89 -3.0 117 106 -1.52019 (fore) 74 67 -6.3 94 86 -3.7 115 104 -2.02020 (fore) 70 64 -5.4 92 83 -3.1 113 103 -1.6




FIGURE 41: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF AMBIENT FISH AND SHELLFISH, BEST AND WORST CASE FORECAST, BY VALUE, 2015-20


changeMintel



change£m £m £m

2015 (est) 526 100 na 526 100 na 526 100 na2016 (fore) 472 90 -10.3 532 101 +1.1 608 116 +15.62017 (fore) 485 92 +2.8 547 104 +2.8 622 118 +2.32018 (fore) 497 94 +2.5 561 107 +2.6 636 121 +2.42019 (fore) 507 96 +2.1 573 109 +2.1 652 124 +2.42020 (fore) 516 98 +1.7 580 110 +1.2 667 127 +2.4


FIGURE 42: FORECAST OF UK RETAIL SALES OF AMBIENT FISH AND SHELLFISH, BEST AND WORST CASE FORECAST, BY VOLUME, 2015-20


changeMintel




2015 (est) 83 100 na 83 100 na 83 100 na2016 (fore) 68 81 -18.7 81 98 -2.2 95 114 +14.32017 (fore) 67 80 -1.3 81 98 -0.2 96 115 +0.62018 (fore) 65 78 -2.9 80 96 -1.5 95 114 -0.72019 (fore) 64 77 -1.7 79 95 -1.0 94 114 -0.52020 (fore) 62 74 -2.8 78 94 -1.6 94 113 -0.7


RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

© Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved.© Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved.

60UK RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

UK Research Methodology

Mintel is an independent market analysis company that prides itself on supplying objective information on a whole range of markets and marketing issues.

There are six main sources of research that are used in the compilation of Mintel reports:

• Consumer research

• Brand & social media research

• Desk research

• Trade research

• Statistical forecasting

• Mintel’s exclusive archive of over 40 years of analysis and expertise.

Mintel reports are written and managed by analysts with experience in the relevant markets.

Consumer research

Exclusive and original quantitative consumer research is commissioned for almost all Mintel reports. In addition, qualitative research is also undertaken for a large proportion of reports in the form of online discussion groups. Mintel invests a considerable sum each year in consumer research, and the purchaser of a Mintel report benefits, as the price of an individual report is less than the cost of the original research alone. The research brings an up-to-date and unique insight into topical issues of importance.

Consumer research is conducted among a nationally representative sample of either adults or internet users and is generally carried out by Lightspeed GMI (online), Ipsos Mori (face to face), while other suppliers are used on an ad hoc basis as required. The results are only available in Mintel reports.

Sampling and weighting

Face to Face Surveys

Ipsos Mori

Ipsos MORI Capibus uses a two-stage random location sample design which generates a very high quality sample representative of the Great Britain adult population. Interviews are conducted via c170 sampling points, randomly selected every week, and MOSAIC is employed to set interlocking quota controls specific to each interviewer location. This ensures consistent accurate representation of the locations interviewed every week. By using this proven sample design, all sub-sectors of the population are represented – at a national and regional level.

All information collected on Capibus is then weighted to reflect the known profile of the adult population in Great Britain. Capibus uses a rim weighting system which weights to mid-2010 census and NRS defined profiles for age, social grade, region, ethnicity and working status - within gender. Additional profiles used include tenure and car in household, for example.

Because the sampling process is repeated every week, the Capibus sample is matched wave on wave, making it ideal for taking successive measurements on the same issue.

Online Surveys

Lightspeed GMI

Founded in 1999, GMI’s double opt-in online consumer panel has reach to approximately 350,000 consumers in Great Britain. Re-branded as Lightspeed GMI in September 2014 (after its acquisition by Kantar in 2011), it delivers uniquely identified online respondents via extensive use of fraud detection and location-verification technology at multiple

points in the research cycle, from initial registration through survey fielding and incentive redemption. Lightspeed GMI panellists are profiled on a wide variety of attri¬butes to deliver the specific hard-to-reach demographics.

To ensure our surveys are nationally representative of internet users, Mintel sets quotas for each age group, split by gender. Specific quotas for a sample of 2,000 adults aged 16+ are shown below:

Age groups by gender % %

16-19 men 3.6 72

16-19 women 3.4 68

20-24 men 4.9 98

20-24 women 4.8 95

25-34 men 9.4 189

25-34 women 9.5 190

35-44 men 9.3 186

35-44 women 9.5 190

45-54 men 9.3 186

45-54 women 9.4 189

55-64 men 7.0 140

55-64 women 7.2 144

65+ men 5.7 113

65+ women 7.0 140

Total 100 2,000



Mintel also sets quotas on region and socio-economic group. Specific quotas for a sample of 2,000 adults aged 16+ are shown below:

Region % N

North East 4.2 84North West 11.5 229Yorkshire & Humberside 8.6 172East Midlands 7.4 148West Midlands 9.1 182Greater London 13.4 269South East/East Anglia 23.6 473South West 8.6 172Wales 5.0 99Scotland 8.6 172

Total 100 2,000

Social economic group % N

AB 22.3 446C1 30.9 618C2 20.9 418DE 25.9 518

Total 100 2,000

Definitions

Socio-economic group

Socio-economic groups are based on the head of household or chief income earner and are defined as follows:

Retired persons who have a company pension or private pension, or who have private means are graded on their previous occupation.

Students in higher education living at home are graded on the occupation of the head of the household. Students living away from home are graded C1 (no account is taken of casual or vacation jobs).

Qualitative Research

Toluna/ 2020 Research

Toluna in partnership with 20/20 Research provide Mintel with qualitative bulletin board software. This allows the creation of Internet-based, ‘virtual’ venues where participants recruited from Mintel’s online surveys gather and engage in interactive, text-based discussions led by Mintel moderators.

Further Analysis

Mintel employs numerous quantitative data analysis techniques to enhance the value of our consumer research. The techniques used vary form one report to another. Below describes some of the more commonly used techniques.

Repertoire Analysis

This is used to create consumer groups based on reported behaviour or attitudes. Consumer responses of the same value (or list of values) across a list of survey items are tallied into a single variable. The repertoire variable summarises the number of occurrences in which the value or values appear among a list of survey items. For example, a repertoire of brand purchasing might produce groups of those that purchase 1-2 brands, 3-4 brands and 5 or more brands. Each subgroup should be large enough (ie N=75+) to analyse.

Cluster Analysis

This technique assigns a set of individual people in to groups called clusters on the basis of one or more question responses, so that respondents within the same cluster are in some sense closer or more similar to one another than to respondents that were grouped into a different cluster.

Correspondence Analysis

This is a statistical visualisation method for picturing the associations between rows (image, attitudes) and columns (brands, products, segments, etc.) of a two-way contingency table. It allows us to display brand images (and/or consumer attitudes towards brands) related to each brand covered in this survey in a joint space that is easy to understand. The significance of the relationship between a brand and its associated image is measured using the Chi-square test. If two brands have similar response patterns regarding their perceived images, they are assigned similar scores on underlying dimensions and will then be displayed close to each other in the perceptual map.

CHAID analysis

CHAID (Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection), a type of decision tree analysis, is used to highlight key target groups in a sample by identifying which sub-groups are more likely to show a particular characteristic. This analysis subdivides the sample into a series of subgroups that share similar characteristics towards a specific response variable and allows us to identify which combinations have the highest response rates for the target variable. It is commonly used to understand and visualise the relationship between a variable of interest such as “interest in trying a new product” and other characteristics of the sample, such as demographic composition.

Key Driver Analysis

Key driver analysis can be a useful tool in helping to prioritise focus between different factors which may impact key performance indicators (eg satisfaction, likelihood to switch providers, likelihood to recommend a brand, etc). Using correlations analysis or regression analysis we can get an understanding of which factors or attributes of a market have the strongest association or “link” with a positive performance on key performance indicators (KPIs). Hence, we are able to identify which factors or attributes are relatively more critical in a market category compared to others and ensures that often limited resources can be allocated to focusing on the main market drivers.

Socio-economic

group

Occupation of chief income earner

A Higher managerial, administrative or

professional

B Intermediate managerial,

administrative or professional

C1

Supervisory or clerical, and junior managerial,

administrative or professional

C2 Skilled manual workers

D Semi and unskilled manual workers



Brand & Social Media Research

Mintel’s brand research includes more in-depth knowledge about brands covered in relevant markets. Brands are evaluated on a number of areas including usage, commitment, dynamism, differentiation, satisfaction, image, recommendation and attitudes. When evaluating attitudes, up to ten brand attitude statements are selected and tested, depending on the actual consumer market.

To complement its exclusive consumer research, Mintel tracks social media data for inclusion in selected reports. Using Infegy’s Atlas software, Mintel analyses online conversations across a range of social platforms including Twitter, consumer forums and the wider web.

Atlas provides rich consumer insight via the analysis of commentary posted publicly on the internet. The system performs comprehensive and broad collection of data from millions of internet sources, working to ensure a faithful and extensive sampling of feedback from the widest range of individuals. The dataset contains commentary posted in real time, as well as a substantial archive dating back to 2007.

Trade research

Informal

Trade research is undertaken for all reports. This involves contacting relevant players in the trade, not only to gain information concerning their own operations, but also to obtain explanations and views of the strategic issues pertinent to the market being researched.

Formal

Internally, Mintel’s analysts undertake extensive trade interviews with selected key experts in the field for the majority of reports. The purpose of these interviews is to assess key issues in the market place in order to ensure that any research undertaken takes these into account.

In addition, using experienced external researchers, trade research is undertaken for some reports. This takes the form of full trade interview questionnaires and direct quotes are included in the report and analysed by experts in the field. This gives a valuable insight into a range of trade views of topical issues.

Desk research

Mintel has an internal team of market analysts who monitor: government statistics, consumer and trade association statistics, manufacturer sponsored reports, annual company reports and accounts, directories, press articles from around the world and online databases. The latter are extracted from hundreds of publications and websites, both British and overseas. All information is cross-referenced for immediate access.

Data from other published sources are the latest available at the time of writing the report.

This information is supplemented by an extensive library of Mintel’s reports produced since 1972 and added to each year by the 500+ reports which are produced annually.

In addition to in-house sources, researchers also occasionally use outside libraries such as the British Library or the Department of Trade and Industry. Other information is also gathered from store and exhibition visits across Europe, as well as using other databases within the Mintel Group, such as the Global New Product Database (GNPD), which monitors FMCG sales promotions.

All analysts have access to Mintel’s Market Size and Macroeconomic Databases – a database containing many areas of consumer spending and retail sales as well as macroeconomic and demographic factors which impinge on consumer spending patterns, going back some 20 years.

The database is used in conjunction with an SPSS forecasting program which uses weighted historical correlations of market dynamics, with independent variables, to produce future spending scenarios.

Statistical Forecasting

Statistical modelling

For the majority of reports, Mintel produces five-year forecasts based on an advanced statistical technique known as ‘multivariate time series auto-regression’ using the statistical software package SPSS.

Historical market size data feeding into each forecast are collated in Mintel’s own market size database and supplemented by macro- and socio-economic data sourced from organisations such as the Office for National Statistics, HM Treasury, the Bank of England and the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Within the forecasting process, the model searches for, and analyses relationships between, actual market sizes and a selection of key economic and demographic determinants (independent variables) in order to identify those predictors having the most influence on the market.

Factors used in a forecast are stated in the relevant report section alongside an interpretation of their role in explaining the development in demand for the product or market in question.

Qualitative insight

At Mintel we understand that historic data is limited in its capacity to act as the only force behind the future state of markets. Thus, rich qualitative insights from industry experts regarding future events that might impact upon various markets play an invaluable role in our post statistical modeling evaluation process.

As a result, the Mintel forecast complements a rigorous statistical process with in-depth market knowledge and expertise to allow for additional factors or market conditions outside of the capacity of the statistical forecast.

63


UK RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The Mintel fan chart

Forecasts of future economic outcomes are always subject to uncertainty. In order to raise awareness amongst our clients and to illustrate this uncertainty, Mintel has introduced a new way of displaying market size forecasts in the form of a fan-chart.

Next to historical market sizes and a current year estimate, the fan chart illustrates the probability of various outcomes for the market value/volume over the next five years.

At a 95% confidence interval, we are saying that 95 out of 100 times the forecast will fall within these outer limits, which we call the best and worst case forecasts. These, based on the statistically driven forecast, are the highest (best case) and lowest (worst case) market sizes the market is expected to achieve.

Over the next five years, the widening bands successively show the developments that occur within 95%, 90%, 70% and 50% probability intervals. Statistical processes predict the central forecast to fall within the darker shaded area which illustrates 50% probability, ie a 5 in 10 chance.

A general conclusion: Based on our current knowledge of given historic market size data as well as projections for key macro- and socio-economic measures that were used to create the forecast, we can assume that in 95% of the time the actual market size will fall within the purple shaded fan. In 5% of all cases this model might not be correct due to random errors and the actual market size will fall out of these boundaries.

Weather analogy

To illustrate uncertainty in forecasting in an everyday example, let us assume the following weather forecast was produced based on the meteorologists’ current knowledge of the previous weather condition during the last few days, atmospheric observations, incoming weather fronts etc.

Now, how accurate is this forecast and how certain can we be that the temperature on Saturday will indeed be 15°C?

To state that the temperature in central London on Saturday will rise to exactly 15°C is possible but one can’t be 100% certain about that fact.

To say the temperature on Saturday will be between 13°C and 17°C is a broader statement and much more probable.

In general, we can say that based on the existing statistical model, one can be 95% certain that the temperature on Saturday will be between 13°C and 17°C, and respectively 50% certain it will be between about 14.5°C and 15.5°C. Again, only in 5% of all cases this model might not be correct due to random errors and the actual temperature on Saturday will fall out of these boundaries and thus will be below 13°C or above 17°C.

( To learn more about uncertainty in weather forecasts visit: http://research.metoffice.gov.uk/research/nwp/ensemble/uncertainty.html )

© 2015 Mintel Group Ltd. All rights reserved.Confidential to Mintel.

Published by Mintel Group Ltdwww.mintel.comemail: [email protected]

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