Financial results - ArcelorMittal

32
Financial results For the six months ended 30 June 2017

Transcript of Financial results - ArcelorMittal

Page 1: Financial results - ArcelorMittal

Financial resultsFor the six months ended 30 June 2017

Page 2: Financial results - ArcelorMittal

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Forward-looking statements

This presentation includes forward-looking information and statements about ArcelorMittal South Africa (“AMSA”) and its

subsidiaries that express or imply expectations of future events or results. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not

historical facts. These statements include, without limitation, financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions,

statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future production, operations, costs, products and

services and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements may, without limitation, be identified by words

such as ‘believe’, ‘expect’, ‘anticipate’, ‘target’, ‘plan’ and other similar expressions. All forward-looking statements involve a

number of risks, uncertainties and other factors not within AMSA’s control or knowledge. Although AMSA’s management believes

that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors and holders of AMSA’s securities are

cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties, many of which are

difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of AMSA, that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially

and adversely from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements contained in

this presentation. The risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in the filings with the Johannesburg Stock

Exchange (the “JSE”) made or to be made by AMSA, including AMSA’s Annual Report of the year ended December 31, 2016 filed

with the JSE. Factors that could cause or contribute to differences between the actual results, performance and achievements of

AMSA include, but are not limited to, political, economic and business conditions, industry trends, competition, commodity prices,

changes in regulation and currency fluctuations. Accordingly, investors should not place reliance on forward-looking statements

contained in this presentation. The forward-looking statements in this presentation reflect information available at the time of

preparing this presentation and have not been reviewed and reported on by AMSA’s auditors and apply only as of the date they

are made. Subject to the requirements of the applicable law, AMSA shall have no obligation and makes no undertaking to publicly

update any forward-looking statements in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise or

to publicly release the result of any revisions to any forward-looking statements in this presentation that may occur due to any

change in AMSA’s expectations or to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation. No statements made in

this presentation regarding expectations of future profits are profit forecasts or estimates.

Disclaimer

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Content

Overview

The industry

Operational information

Financial outcomes

Outlook and focus areas

Questions

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OverviewWim de Klerk

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Salient features

Safety

3 fatalities

LTIFR

Down to 0.62

Revenue

Up 13%

EBITDA

R816m lower

HEPS*

Down 229%

Production

down 6%

Flat

Down 5%

Long

Down 8%

Sales

Down 4%

Domestic

Down 9%

Flat +1%

Long -15%

Export

Up 16%

• Business confidence in SA declined

• Recession looming with static GDP

• Downgrade to sub-investment grade

• Minimal local infrastructure spend

• ASC** decreased 3.8% (-97kt)

• Despite import duties and designation

imports decreased only 5% (29kt)

• Safeguards on flat products have been

approved by government

• Improved B-BBEE status to level 3

• Spike in coal prices (+$168/t or +131%)

• Although realised prices increased by

19%, sales declined 4%, RMB increased

by 37% and hence profits down by 253%

* Headline earnings per share

**Apparent steel consumption

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Safety, key to a sustainable business

Safety performance• Improved LTIFR, DIFR and TIFR frequency

rates

• Reduction in number of injuries sustained

• AMCC and Pretoria Works achieved 414

and 371 days without LTI’s respectively

• Smoking areas halved as part of smoke free

drive

LTIFR – Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate; DIFR – Disabling Injury Frequency Rate; TIFR – Total Injury Frequency Rate

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The industryWim de Klerk

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The industry - global

44 44 39 39 41 42 39 41 43 44

28 28 29 26 27 29 28 27 29 29

271 280270 267 266

285 280 279 280297

399410

394 385 388

413404 405 408

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2015 2016 2017EU (27) Other Europe CISNorth America South America AfricaMiddle East Asia Oceania

428

AsiaDespite reported

plant closures,

Chinese steel

output has not

been affected as

utilisation

improves

AfricaSA output

increased

marginally but

was negated by

increased

imports from

China

Global steel output (mt crude steel)

197 207 197 194 192 210 204 202 201 218

74 73 72 72 7475 77 77 79

79

271 280 270 267 266 285 280 279 280 297

0

100

200

300

2015 2016 2017China Rest of Asia

Asia steel output (mt crude steel)

Source: Deutsche Bank quoting World Steel Association as source Source: Deutsche Bank quoting World Steel Association as source

1.71.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6

1.8

1.7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.51.6 1.6

0.2

0.30.1

0.20.3 0.3 0.2 0.3

0.2 0.3

3.83.3

2.9 2.83.0 3.0 3.0 3.1

3.4 3.4

0

1

2

3

4

2015 2016 2017Egypt South Africa Other Africa

Africa steel output (mt crude steel)

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The industry – raw materials

Note: RMB - (iron ore * 1.6) + (coking coal * 0.6) + (scrap * 0.15); CFR – Cost and freight; FOB – Free on board; HMS Heavy Metal Scrap

19% 21% 19% 18% 19% 21% 17% 12% 15% 16%

32% 29% 29% 32% 31%30% 38% 51%

36%45%

49% 50% 51% 51% 51% 49% 45% 36% 49% 39%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2015 2016 2017Scrap (%) Coking coal (%)

Iron ore (%) Raw material basket

China HRC price

Commodity International AMSA ($/t) AMSA (R/t)

H1 2017 % change H1 2017 % change H1 2017 % change

Iron ore $74/t (CFR North China) +43% $76/t (delivered) +22% R1 001/t (delivered) +5%

Hard coking coal $182/t (FOB) +114% $297/t (imported & delivered) +131% R3 936/t (delivered) +103%

Scrap $281/t (Asia HMS) +25% $235/t (delivered) +41% R3 110/t (delivered) +23%

Pellets $113/t (FOB) +44% $126/t (delivered) +34% R1 665/t (delivered) +15%

Coke $301/t (FOB) +147% $386/t (delivered) +143% R5 099/t (delivered) +110%

RMB total $261/t (FOB) +59% $336/t (delivered) +60% R4 432/t (delivered) +37%

HRC China $465/t (FOB) +37% $654/t (base price) +42% R8 652/t (base price) +23%

International raw material basket ($/t) AMSA raw material basket (R/t)

RMB cost

RMB

weight

H1

2016

H1

2017

H1

2016

H1

2017

International AMSA

Iron

ore50% 44% 47% 37%

Coking

coal30% 40% 41% 50%

Scrap 20% 16% 12% 14%

10% 8% 8% 8% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 14%

41% 44% 44% 42% 41% 40%42%

45%48% 51%

50% 48% 48% 50% 47% 48% 45% 40%

38% 35%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

3000

6000

9000

2015 2016 2017Iron ore Coking coalScrap AMSA domestic HRC price (R/t)

AMSA RMB (R/t)

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The industry – domestic (total)

SA apparent steel consumption (kt)

58%

58%63%

62%

70% 70%63%

66%

68%65%

12%

17%

14%

10%

6%9%

10%

11%

11%11%

19%

14%

13%

17%

13%11%

16%

11%

8%8%

11%

12%

9%

11%

12%10% 11%

12%

12%16%

29%

25%

23%

28%

24%

21%

27%

23%

20%

24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

2015 2016 2017Other Imports Chinese ImportsDomestic Competitors AMSAImports as a % of App Consumption

• AMSA’s market share declined with the

contraction in ASC stemming from the

lower long product market share over

the review period – AMSA reduced

from 70% to 67%

• Total imports remained static at almost

20% although Chinese imports has

declined to 8% from 12% market share

• Other competitors has increased their

market share by almost 50%

1501 1185 1252 1086 1263 1298 1285 1007 1244 1219ASC (kt)

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The industry – domestic (flat and long)

SA flat apparent steel consumption

59% 60%65%

62%70%

75%67% 70%

77%70%

5% 5%1%

0%

0%

0%

0%0%

0%

0%21% 18%

19%23%

17%13%

19% 13%

9%

10%

15% 17% 15% 16% 13% 12% 14% 17% 14%19%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2016 2017

AMSA Competitors Chinese Imports Other Imports

• AMSA gains market

share in flat from 73%

to 74% while long

declined to 53% from

67%

• Flat imports market

share declined to 26%

from 28% of ASC

while long imports

decreased marginally

to below 15% of ASC

• Highveld toll

agreement should

reduce imports further

SA long apparent steel consumption

56% 55%60%

64%70%

63%58% 59%

52% 54%

25%33%

34% 27% 15%22%

26%30%

32%33%

12%7%

3%5%

5% 6% 9%5%

5% 2%

6% 6% 3% 4%10% 9% 7% 7%

11% 11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2016 2017AMSA Competitors Chinese Imports Other Imports

972 687 768 699 801 786 778 619 801 794 529 498 483 388 461 512 507 389 443 425ASC (kt) ASC (kt)

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The industry – domestic (inventories)

663

578

508

408 408453

418373 388 388

7.8

6.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2015 2016 2017Flat inventory Total weeks' consumption

Flat weeks' consumption

307 287 262 272 287 297 280 280 290 310

7.8

9.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2015 2016 2017Long inventory Total weeks' consumptionLong weeks' consumption

Flat steel inventories (kt) Long steel inventories (kt)

AMSA’s

estimated end-

user inventory

levels indicate

fairly constant flat

product levels

while long

product stock

volumes are

increasing

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Operational informationDean Subramanian

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571 412 503 429 560 586 518 433 620 547

0

200

400

600

2015 2016 2017

34 31 29 24 18 21 27 43 25 22

0

10

20

30

40

2015 2016 2017

Flat steel divisionDomestic sales (kt)

Africa over Land (kt incl in export sales)

Export sales (kt)

Liquid steel output (kt)

896

811772

666

827

905

712

777813

836

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2015 2016 2017

157 218 245 143 166 177 105 191 168 171

0

50

100

150

200

250

2015 2016 2017

Flat

utilisation

slowly rising

at 79%Flat exports

at 65% of

total exports

Flat AoL

sales 14%

of total flat

exports

Flat domestic 80%

Flat sub-Sahara 5%

Total flat sub-Sahara incl SA 85%

1 732 1 649

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HRC growth stemming

from re-roller activity

Plate demand

generated by structural industry

Consistent orders for galv from

automotive

Flat steel division

0

50

100

150

200

2015 2016 2017

Structural metal (95%*)

0

50

100

2015 2016 2017

0

50

100

2015 2016 2017

Automotive (93%*)

Engineering (56%*)

*Industry reliance on flat products

Source: AMSA estimates

Product sales

56%51% 55% 52% 57% 54% 52%

59%65% 65%

15%17%

16%16%

14% 15% 15%

14%11% 9%

9%9%

10%8%

9% 10% 10%8%

8% 8%

7%6%

7%10%

10% 10% 10% 8% 7% 8%6% 8%

6% 8% 5% 4% 5% 6% 4% 5%7% 8% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2016 2017HRC HDG CRC Plate Tin Other

• Main product is HRC

• Increased HRC of late due

to import replacement

571 412 503 429 560 585 518 433 620 547Total (kt)

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49 47

141

92

6143

31 38

80

99

0

50

100

150

2015 2016 2017

Long steel division

Export sales (kt)

Domestic sales (kt)

453

403 410428

400388

403

359

386

339

0

100

200

300

400

500

2015 2016 2017

302276

294

252

325 324296

233 235 227

0

100

200

300

2015 2016 2017

3224

31 29 27 2823 25 22 20

0

10

20

30

2015 2016 2017

Africa over Land (kt incl in export sales)

Liquid steel output (kt)Long

utilisation on

downward

trend to 77%Long

exports at

35% of total

exports

Long AoL

sales 23%

of total long

exports

Long domestic 72%

Long sub-Sahara 18%

Total long sub-Sahara incl SA 90%

Due to lack of demand and loss of

market share, exports moved up

788 725

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Wire rod growth stems

from cable and wire business

Section sales

dictated by B&C industry

Rebar and wire rod also

reliant on B&C industry

Long steel division

0

50

100

150

200

2015 2016 2017

0

10

20

30

40

2015 2016 2017

0

40

80

120

2015 2016 2017

Building & Construction (70%*)

Fasteners (100%*)

Cables & Wire products (99%*)

*Industry reliance on long products

Source: AMSA estimates

Product sales

40% 39% 41%34% 36% 37% 39% 38%

43% 42%

15% 19% 17%

16% 15%18%

20% 19%

18% 19%

23% 18% 17%

21% 21%22%

19%16%

18% 16%

10%11% 13%

14%16%

12% 13%18%

11% 12%

4%4% 3%

3%3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

8% 10% 9% 12%8% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2016 2017Wire Rod Bars Sections Rebar Fencing Other

• Main product is wire rod

• H117 lower sections and

rebar due to lower

construction activity

Total (kt) 302 276 294 252 325 324 296 233 235 227

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Coke & Chemicals division

Commercial coke (kt)

Tar (kt)

Commercial coke source of revenue

Tar source of revenue

• Battery repairs at

Newcastle completed in Q2

2017 – the higher

availability of ovens should

increase output

• Tar output remains

sluggish stemming from

low overall coke production

• Ferro alloy industry has

been consolidated with

older excess capacity

closed

36%

25%

13%11%

8% 8%

35%

28%

14% 13%

7%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Alloy Alluminium Timber Carbonblack

Plasticizers Others

H1 2016 H1 2017

72%

6%3% 4% 3%

12%

65%

3%7%

1% 3%

21%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

FeCr Cement Alluminium Petrochemicals

Timber Others

H1 2016 H1 2017

22 2224 23 24 23

18 18

15

21

24 23 24 25 24 25

20

17

20 19

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2015 2016 2017Tar production Tar sales

108120

85

100

8593

86

71

49 52

104

135

76

9989

107

135

120

46 46

0

50

100

150

2015 2016 2017

Commercial coke production Commercial coke sales

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Capital expenditure

H1 2017 H1 2016

Maintenance & expansion 558 665

Environmental 13 61

Total expenditure 572 726

Main projects completed during H1 2017• Long products

• Emergency repair of the bar mill control room

• Battery N2 bracing and end flue repair

• Saldanha

• Back up internal components for hot strip mill

gearboxes

• Vanderbijlpark

• Replace basic oxygen furnace off-gas gas cooler

AMSA R572m

VdbpR280m

Long productsR125m

C&C R102m

SaldanhaR65m

Page 20: Financial results - ArcelorMittal

Financial outcomesDean Subramanian

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Headline earnings

H1 2017 H1 2016

Revenue 19 151 17 006

EBITDA (534) 282

Depreciation and amortisation (449) (530)

Once-off items (21)

Loss from operations (983) (269)

Impairment (604) (6)

Net finance costs (622) (276)

Equity earnings (14) 108

Income tax (expense) (7)

Loss after tax (2 223) (450)

Add back impairment 604 6

Add back disposal/scrapping of assets (17)

Add back tax effect 3

Headline loss (1 619) (458)

US$m (122) (30)

Revenue +13%

Price +19%

Volume (4%)

Flat +R49m

Long (R858m)

MCC +R94m

Other (R101m)

Interest (overdraft and loans) (R131m)

Interest expense on finance lease +R4m

Forex (R138m)

Unwinding and rate adjustment on current

provisions (R70m)

Interest received (R11m)

Lower income from joint ventures due

to poor economic activity

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H1 2017 H1 2016

Flat steel products (Rm) (69) (118)

EBITDA margin (0.5%) (1.1%)

Net realised price R/t 8 413 6 889

Long steel products (Rm) (706) 152

EBITDA margin (13.0%) +2.7%

Net realised price R/t 7 492 6 758

Coke and Chemicals (Rm) 191 97

EBITDA margin +26.0% +12.0%

Corporate and other (Rm) 50 151

Total EBITDA (Rm) (534) +282

EBITDA margin (2.8%) +1.7%

Divisional EBITDA

Higher sales volume (+17kt or

+1%) with better prices in ZAR

(+22%) offset by higher cost of raw

materials

Lower sales volume (-112kt

or -15%) combined with

higher cost of raw materials

Better prices on commercial

coke partly countered by lower

volumes

H1 2016 include Afrox onerous

contract settlement

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EBITDA bridge (Rm)

• Results positively impacted

• Average domestic sales price increased

with 23% and export values by 8%

• Efficiencies improved

• Increased prices doubled C&C profits

• Results negatively impacted

• Continued weak SA economy

• Exchange rate strengthened from R15.45

in H116 to R13.23 in H117

• Higher costs due to coking coal & iron ore

• Fixed costs were higher than previous

year (mainly labour and maintenance)

• Once off items (total = R805m)• Lower long product sales R251m

• Less own coke available R194m

• Vdbp stove incident R79m

• Other R281m

4 999

162

21

1 534

258

351182 56

3 617

282

(534)

H1

2016

Exc

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pact

Sal

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Sal

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Raw

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Effi

cien

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& o

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NR

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Fix

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Fix

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H1

2017

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Cost dynamics and breakdown

Weight H1 2017 H1 2016 change

50% Raw materials R/t 4 143 2 840 +46%

F 29% Auxiliaries & consumables R/t 2 409 2 062 +17%

l 21% Fixed costs R/t 1 776 1 552 +14%

a 100% Total R/t 8 328 6 454 +29%

t Liquid steel kt 1 649 1 732 (5%)

Average ZAR rate 13.23 15.45 (14%)

Average NRP R/t 8 413 6 889 +22%

52% Raw materials R/t 3 857 2 725 +42%

L 22% Auxiliaries & consumables R/t 1 643 1 464 +12%

o 26% Fixed costs R/t 1 950 1 749 +12%

n 100% Total R/t 7 449 5 938 +25%

g Liquid steel kt 725 788 (8%)

Average ZAR rate 13.23 15.45 (14%)

Average NRP R/t 7 492 6 758 +11%

Main increases are:

• Iron ore 1%

• Pellets price 15%

• Coal/Coke price 74%

• Alloys & Fluxes 21%

• Manpower 7%

Main increases are:

• Iron ore 10%

• Coal/Coke price 72%

• Alloys & Fluxes 23%

• Manpower 5%

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Cash flow and analysis (Rm)

Inventories (R562m)

Receivables (R1 535m)

Payables R1 482m

Provisions (R30m)

Lower spending due to

savings initiatives

Group loan and BBF

H1 2017 H1 2016

Cash generated before WC (472) 243

Working capital (645) 349

Capital expenditure (601) (796)

Net finance costs (353) (190)

Investments (4) 1

Tax (7) (2)

Proceeds on scrapping of assets 6 21

Realised forex (119) (206)

Finance lease (35) (31)

Increase/(decrease) of borrowings 4 298 (3 280)

Rights issue funds 4 500

Cash flow 2 059 609

Effect of forex rate change on cash 4 (14)

Net cash flow 2 063 595

Cash in bank 3 723 2 759

Short term loans (6 300) (1 749)

Net (borrowings)/cash (2 577) 1 010

Higher interest resulting

from higher debt

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Working capital movement and analysis (Rm)

H1 2017 H1 2016

Inventories (562) 159

Finished products 201 214

Work-in-progress (677) 314

Raw materials (126) (380)

Plant spares and stores 40 11

Receivables (1 535) (1 570)

Payables 1 482 1 977

Utilisation of provisions (30) (217)

Working capital movement (645) 349

The cash being utilised mainly for

environmental R29m

Receivables increased following higher

shipments and prices:

• Volume impact on debtors R1 039m

• Price impact on debtors R362m

• Coke and Chemicals R37m

• Payment terms R88m

Inventory increased by R562m

• Finished metal stocks down 45kt

• Work in progress metal stock down

by 39kt, however coke 50kt, sinter

51kt and scrap 44kt stocks

increased

• Imported coke stock up by 26kt

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Consolidated statement of financial position (Rm)

H1 2017 H1 2016

Current assets 18 837 15 426

Cash balance 3 723 2 759

Inventories 11 694 9 436

Trade & other receivables 3 342 3 133

Other current assets 78 98

Non-current assets 15 192 17 567

Property, plant & equipment 10 196 12 046

Equity accounted investments 4 447 5 037

Other non-current assets 549 484

Total assets 34 029 32 993

Liabilities 22 931 15 577

Current liabilities 13 164 10 365

Non-current liabilities 3 467 3 463

Borrowings 6 300 1 749

Shareholders equity 11 098 17 416

Total liabilities & equity 34 029 32 993

Raw materials +R676m and steel

stock +R1 582m due to higher prices

Lower due to the impairment of Vanderbijlpark

and Saldanha at end 2016 and long products

in 2017

USD entity Macsteel lower due to

movement in exchange rate

Trade payables +R2 248m mainly AMS for

imported coal at higher prices

Borrowing based facility +R3 600m

Group loan long term +R2 700m

Higher due to restricted cash

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Net debt and liquidity (Rm)

Liquidity (undrawn facilities plus cash)Cash flow and net debt/(cash)

4065

2164

4660

3660

4873

-12.0%

-21.3%

5.8%

-2.1%

-23.2%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2015 2016 2017Liquidity (Rm) Net debt to equity (%)

Average net debt of

large listed European

steel producers is at

59% compared to

AMSA’s 23%

Source: Deutsche Bank

492

-3246

-158 -410-951

-1578

3225

349309

-645-890

-322

-816

-1199

-691

4500

-2 522-2 865

1 010

-290

-2 577

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

2015 2016 2017

Operating activities Working capital

Capex/Investments Rights issue

Net debt/(cash)

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Outlook and focus areasWim de Klerk

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Group outlook

• Domestic steel demand expected to remain subdued - low economic growth/lack of infrastructure spend

• Flat business should benefit when the safeguards are implemented

• Long business should improve pending coal and scrap prices plus the full benefit of heavy sections/rail

• Export markets likely to be more resilient - Africa should experience growth in demand of about 2% to 3%

• Volatility in the rand/US dollar exchange rate will continue to have a material impact on financial results

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Action plan

Procurement initiatives

Utmost cost control over contracts

Conclude lower electricity and rail tariffs

Raw material analysis

Organisational and industrial

footprint

Benchmark initiatives

Production lines

Capex requirements

Structural changes

Commercial initiatives

Improve market share/increase volumes

Focus on AoL

Product range

Short term initiatives

Productivity improvements

Asset disposal

Excess material

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Questions