Financial Analysis - OGX Petroleo e Gas Participacoes SA is an oil and gas…

19.03.2013

Ticker: OGX Petroleo e Gas Participaco Benchmark:

Currency: BM&FBOVESPA: OGXP3, Currency: BRL BRAZIL BOVESPA INDEX (IBOV)

Sector: Energy Industry: Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels Year:

Telephone 55-21-2555-5500 Revenue (M) Business Segments in BRL Sales (M) Geographic Segments in BRL Sales (M)

Website www.ogx.com.br No of Employees Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 0 Brazil 0

Address Praia do Flamengo 154 5 Andar Rio De Janeiro, RJ 22210-030 Brazil

Share Price Performance in BRL

Price 2.47 1M Return -21.6%

52 Week High 17.26 6M Return -62.4%

52 Week Low 2.32 52 Wk Return -85.7%

52 Wk Beta 1.98 YTD Return -43.6%

Credit Ratings

Bloomberg -

S&P B Date 20.05.2011 Outlook STABLE

Moody's B1 Date - Outlook NEG

Fitch - Date - Outlook STABLE

Valuation Ratios

12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

P/E 47.2x - - - - - 16.7x

EV/EBIT - - - - - - -

EV/EBITDA - - - - - 134.7x 6.9x

P/S - - - - 21.9x 5.8x 2.0x

P/B 1.9x 6.0x 7.0x 5.0x 1.0x 1.0x 0.9x

Div Yield - - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Profitability Ratios %

12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Gross Margin - - - - -10.1 34.4 48.5

EBITDA Margin - - - - -183.8 6.0 39.5

Operating Margin - - - - -237.2 -6.5 28.7

Profit Margin - - - - -237.9 -13.4 15.8

Return on Assets 5.1 -1.0 -1.2 -4.0 -5.1 -2.1 6.7

Return on Equity 6.3 -1.1 -1.3 -5.3 -11.1 -3.0 6.5

Leverage and Coverage Ratios

12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11

Current Ratio 13.3 13.0 6.9 7.7 Current Capitalization in BRL

Quick Ratio 13.1 12.6 6.5 7.5 Common Shares Outstanding (M) 3233.8

EBIT/Interest -2273.5 -467.0 -3824.9 -3.7 Market Capitalization (M) 7993.0

Tot Debt/Capital 0.0 - 0.0 0.3 Cash and ST Investments (M) 5058.6

Tot Debt/Equity 0.0 - 0.0 0.5 Total Debt (M) 8046.8

Eff Tax Rate % 35.3 - - - Preferred Equity (M) 0.0

LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 176.3

Investments (M) 44.7

Enterprise Value (M) 10849.5

OGX Petroleo e Gas Participacoes SA is an oil and gas exploration and production

company.

OGXP3 BZ

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Company Analysis - Overview

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Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: [email protected] |

www.ogx.com.br

OGX Petroleo e Gas Participaco

Target price in BRL

Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date

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Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings

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19.03.2013


Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution

Shares Outstanding (M) 3233.8 Brazil 88.29%

Float 38.9% United States 8.29%

Short Interest (M) Luxembourg 1.23%

Short Interest as % of Float Canada 0.91%

Days to Cover Shorts 1.93 Ireland 0.39%

Institutional Ownership 77.93% Japan 0.23%

Retail Ownership 22.07% Switzerland 0.14%

Insider Ownership 0.00% Others 0.52%

Institutional Ownership Distribution

Mutual Fund Manager 85.83%

Investment Advisor 13.48%

Pension Fund (Erisa) 0.65%

Unclassified 0.04%

Pricing data is in BRL Others 0.00%

Top 20 Owners:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country

CENTENNIAL ASSET 1'976'882'691 0 4'882'900'247 61.09% 14.12.2012 EXCH BRAZIL

VANGUARD GROUP INC 77'999'091 -4'919'433 192'657'755 2.41% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

BLACKROCK 63'332'577 -109'492 156'431'465 1.96% 15.03.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

JANUS CAPITAL MANAGE 50'869'169 -10'230'900 125'646'847 1.57% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

ITAU UNIBANCO SA 29'258'399 -1'482'118 72'268'246 0.90% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG BRAZIL

BRAM BRADESCO ASSET 25'374'567 -988'409 62'675'180 0.78% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG BRAZIL

BB GESTAO DE RECURSO 23'374'507 246'400 57'735'032 0.72% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG BRAZIL

FRANKLIN RESOURCES 21'808'100 5'840'500 53'866'007 0.67% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES

CSHG ASSET MGMT SA 17'169'400 15'926'000 42'408'418 0.53% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG BRAZIL

ONTARIO TEACHERS PEN 16'400'000 0 40'508'000 0.51% 31.12.2011 Research CANADA

HSBC GESTAO DE RECUR 13'773'922 1'055'132 34'021'587 0.43% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG BRAZIL

SANTANDER BRASIL ASS 11'029'482 235'260 27'242'821 0.34% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG BRAZIL

JOHN HANCOCK ADVISER 10'023'863 9'182 24'758'942 0.31% 31.01.2013 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

CAIXA ECONOMICA FEDE 9'245'722 30'400 22'836'933 0.29% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG BRAZIL

JGP GESTAO DE RECURS 8'633'439 5'909'791 21'324'594 0.27% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG BRAZIL

BANCO BTG PACTUAL SA 6'422'230 2'425'161 15'862'908 0.20% 30.11.2012 MF-AGG BRAZIL

GAVEA GESTAO DE INVE 6'151'957 6'151'957 15'195'334 0.19% 30.11.2012 MF-AGG BRAZIL

GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OT 6'141'400 0 15'169'258 0.19% 31.05.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES

MANULIFE ASSET MANAG 6'010'130 0 14'845'021 0.19% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG CANADA

GAP GESTORA DE RECUR 5'546'370 1'430'934 13'699'534 0.17% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG BRAZIL

Top 5 Insiders:

Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source

Company Analysis - Ownership

Ownership Type

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TOP 20 ALL



Financial information is in BRL (M)

Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Income Statement

Revenue 0 0 0 0 0 366 1'375 4'071

- Cost of Goods Sold 0 0 0 0 0

Gross Income 0 0 0 0 0 -37 472 1'976

- Selling, General & Admin Expenses 0 52 198 327 417 734

(Research & Dev Costs) 0 0

Operating Income -0 -52 -198 -327 -417 -734 -867 -90 1'167

- Interest Expense 0 0 1 0 199

- Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) 1 0 -4 72

- Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) 5 -46 -756 -265 -255 -276

Pretax Income -6 -6 556 -63 -158 -728 -1'359 -461 667

- Income Tax Expense 0 0 197 38 -23 -218

Income Before XO Items -6 -6 360 -101 -136 -510

- Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0

- Minority Interests 0 0 0 0 -12 -28

Diluted EPS Before XO Items

Net Income Adjusted* 360 11 -123 -482 -870 -184 645

EPS Adjusted 0.11 0.00 (0.04) (0.15) (0.27) (0.08) 0.15

Dividends Per Share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Payout Ratio % 0.00

Total Shares Outstanding 4 1'615 3'232 3'232 3'233 3'234

Diluted Shares Outstanding 3'232 3'233 3'234

EBITDA -196 -324 -411 -724 -672 82 1'609

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.

Equivalent Estimates

Company Analysis - Financials I/IV

Fiscal Year


Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Balance Sheet

Total Current Assets 0.003 2338.719 7698.262 7564.267 5083.508 5573.73

+ Cash & Near Cash Items 0 0 7'052 6'634 4'080 2'352

+ Short Term Investments 2'338 549 704 708 3'016

+ Accounts & Notes Receivable 0 0 0

+ Inventories 0 0 0

+ Other Current Assets 0 97 226 295 206

Total Long-Term Assets 0 2'033 2'050 2'206 4'905 8'776

+ Long Term Investments 0 0 0 1 19 0

Gross Fixed Assets 8 24 33 299

Accumulated Depreciation 0 4 5 22

+ Net Fixed Assets 8 12 20 28 277

+ Other Long Term Assets 2'025 2'038 2'185 4'859 8'500

Total Current Liabilities 1 2'059 580 581 737 719

+ Accounts Payable 0 43 18 151 447 432

+ Short Term Borrowings 0 0 0 22

+ Other Short Term Liabilities 1 2'016 562 430 290 265

Total Long Term Liabilities 0 2 2 12 4'762

+ Long Term Borrowings 0 0 0 4'750

+ Other Long Term Borrowings 0 2 2 12 12

Total Liabilities 1 2'059 582 584 749 5'481

+ Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0

+ Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 25 54

+ Share Capital & APIC 5 2'324 8'799 8'799 8'806 8'810

+ Retained Earnings & Other Equity -6 -12 367 387 409 4

Total Shareholders Equity -1 2'312 9'166 9'186 9'240 8'869

Total Liabilities & Equity 0 4'372 9'748 9'770 9'989 14'350

Book Value Per Share -0.26 1.43 2.84 2.84 2.85 2.73 2.47 2.54 2.85

Tangible Book Value Per Share 0.18 2.21 2.19 1.43 0.43

Company Analysis - Financials II/IV


Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Cash Flows

Net Income -6 -6 360 -101 -123 -482 -966 -323 739

+ Depreciation & Amortization 2 4 5 10

+ Other Non-Cash Adjustments 5 -0 -53 477 -47 97

+ Changes in Non-Cash Capital 1 -1'519 -157 -239 -60

Cash From Operating Activities 0 -6 -1'210 223 -392 -435

+ Disposal of Fixed Assets

+ Capital Expenditures -11 -13 -260 -4'008 -2'451 -2'223

+ Increase in Investments -114 -4

+ Decrease in Investments 1 21

+ Other Investing Activities -475 -2'153 -2'381

Cash From Investing Activities -28 -601 -2'169 -2'620

+ Dividends Paid

+ Change in Short Term Borrowings

+ Increase in Long Term Borrowings 4'035

+ Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -273

+ Increase in Capital Stocks 5 0 7 4

+ Decrease in Capital Stocks -5

+ Other Financing Activities 0 0 -0 576

Cash From Financing Activities 0 6'503 0 7 4'342

Net Changes in Cash 0 5'265 -378 -2'554 1'287

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 212 -405 -695 -5'625 -3'308 -1'819

Free Cash Flow To Firm

Free Cash Flow To Equity

Free Cash Flow per Share 0.07 -0.13 -0.21

Company Analysis - Financials III/IV


Periodicity: 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12E 12/13E 12/14E

Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios

Price Earnings 47.2x 16.7x

EV to EBIT

EV to EBITDA 134.7x 6.9x

Price to Sales 21.9x 5.8x 2.0x

Price to Book 1.9x 6.0x 7.0x 5.0x 1.0x 1.0x 0.9x

Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin -10.1% 34.4% 48.5%

EBITDA Margin -183.8% 6.0% 39.5%

Operating Margin -237.2% -6.5% 28.7%

Profit Margin -237.9% -13.4% 15.8%

Return on Assets -0.3% 5.1% -1.0% -1.2% -4.0% -5.1% -2.1% 6.7%

Return on Equity 6.3% -1.1% -1.3% -5.3% -11.1% -3.0% 6.5%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios

Current Ratio 0.00 1.14 13.27 13.01 6.90 7.75

Quick Ratio 0.00 1.14 13.10 12.62 6.50 7.46

Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) -241.16 -2273.54 -467.04 -3824.89 -3.69

Tot Debt/Capital 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35

Tot Debt/Equity 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54

Others

Asset Turnover 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Accounts Receivable Turnover 0.00

Accounts Payable Turnover 0.00 0.00

Inventory Turnover

Effective Tax Rate 35.3%

Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV


OGX-ORD PETROBRAS-PREF ULTRAPAR LUPATECH SAHRT

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PETROBRAS ARGT-

BOSX BRASIL SA

12/2011 12/2012 12/2012 12/2011 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 03/2012 12/2012 12/2012

17.26 24.67 52.91 5.29 14.48 14.08 5'930.00 48.88 4.55 17.42

21.03.2012 19.03.2012 21.02.2013 19.03.2012 19.03.2012 23.01.2013 02.05.2012 05.03.2013 13.02.2013 20.03.2012

2.32 16.40 38.62 1.56 3.43 6.78 4'760.00 28.43 2.33 6.26

14.03.2013 01.03.2013 25.05.2012 20.12.2012 06.03.2013 28.06.2012 26.06.2012 24.05.2012 14.06.2012 05.03.2013

84'686'800 40'451'100 589'300 137'200 2'229'600 562'500 14'061'828 856'800 298'928 1'602'000

2.47 19.20 50.57 1.59 3.80 12.00 4'960.00 47.39 4.26 6.41

-85.7% -22.2% -4.4% -70.0% -73.8% -14.8% -16.4% -3.0% -6.4% -63.2%

6.5% 17.1% 30.9% 1.9% 10.8% 77.0% 4.2% 66.7% 83.2% 2.4%

3'233.8 13'044.5 536.4 56.6 295.4 265.8 41'116.7 404.3 2'019.2 293.7

7'993 238'844 27'529 250 1'122 3'190 203'938'832 19'298 8'602 1'965

4'772.4 196'350.3 6'240.7 757.0 3.2 103.6 13'705'825.0 5'014.1 2'666.0 5'445.6

- - - - - - - - - -

54.5 2'354.0 25.5 2.7 - - 2'602'167.0 464.6 506.0 80.4

5'367.5 49'302.8 3'161.7 24.1 908.3 1'152.4 9'312'249.0 1'616.2 1'280.0 1'705.1

11'026 388'246 30'634 1'073 217 2'244 210'934'567 32'366 10'494 5'785

LFY 0.0 281'379.5 53'919.4 574.0 6.7 462.3 68'852'002.0 24'096.9 12'765.0 433.8

LTM 150.7 281'379.5 53'919.4 546.1 6.8 462.3 68'794'495.0 27'348.9 12'765.0 433.8

CY+1 365.6 291'886.7 59'729.1 663.0 69.4 469.1 68'119'152.1 30'880.2 15'718.3 586.3

CY+2 1'375.0 307'540.4 64'727.6 861.3 341.1 493.2 70'325'315.5 35'485.1 53'812.0 1'480.0

LFY #DIV/0! 1.4x - 1.8x 73.0x 4.8x 3.4x 1.2x 0.7x 16.0x

LTM 152.2x 1.4x - 1.9x 72.4x 5.2x 3.4x 1.1x 0.7x 16.0x

CY+1 33.3x 1.5x 0.5x - 13.2x 5.1x 3.2x 0.9x 0.7x 18.5x

CY+2 10.4x 1.5x 0.5x - 4.6x 5.2x 3.2x 0.8x 0.2x 9.0x

LFY (723.6) 53'158.1 2'405.3 22.8 (324.5) 90.5 30'484'489.0 5'338.7 3'118.0 18.9

LTM (1'172.9) 53'158.2 2'405.3 (43.4) (324.5) 81.8 30'083'565.0 2'707.3 3'118.0 18.9

CY+1 (672.2) 67'269.3 2'693.0 29.4 (382.2) 275.3 31'667'315.1 2'892.8 4'192.5 111.5

CY+2 81.9 80'075.8 2'963.5 109.5 (234.8) 295.6 34'043'504.4 3'740.1 24'252.0 697.8

LFY -31.7x 7.6x - 44.5x -1.5x 24.7x 7.6x 5.6x 2.8x 367.3x

LTM - 7.6x - - - 27.3x 7.7x 11.1x 2.8x 367.3x

CY+1 - 6.3x 11.6x - - 8.8x 6.9x 9.4x 2.6x 97.1x

CY+2 174.4x 5.8x 10.4x - - 8.7x 6.5x 7.4x 0.5x 19.2x

LFY -0.15 1.62 1.89 -4.10 -0.05 0.31 - 6.34 0.38 -0.09

LTM -0.37 1.62 1.89 -6.92 -0.05 0.31 359.44 1.86 0.27 -0.09

CY+1 (0.27) 2.42 2.18 (1.24) (0.81) 0.75 361.79 1.88 0.54 (0.46)

CY+2 (0.08) 2.69 2.44 (0.30) (0.85) 0.92 360.68 2.47 2.14 (0.35)

LFY - 11.8x 26.7x - - 38.5x 13.8x 25.5x 15.9x -

LTM - 11.8x 26.8x - - 38.5x - 25.7x - -

CY+1 - 7.9x 23.2x - - 15.9x 13.7x 25.2x 7.9x -

CY+2 - 7.1x 20.8x - - 13.1x 13.8x 19.2x 2.0x -

1 Year - 15.2% 10.8% (1.3%) (32.1%) 60.0% 4.7% 33.4% 15.0% 200.7%

5 Year - 10.3% 17.9% 25.1% - - - 83.9% (1.1%) -

1 Year (75.9%) (13.7%) 18.4% (52.1%) 33.7% - (1.8%) 159.8% 119.6% -

5 Year - 0.2% 25.3% (13.9%) - - 26.1% 41.9% 2.5% -

LTM (778.4%) 18.9% 4.5% (7.9%) (4772.2%) 19.1% 43.7% 9.9% 24.4% 4.4%

CY+1 (183.8%) 23.0% 4.5% 4.4% (550.6%) 58.7% 46.5% 9.4% 26.7% 19.0%

CY+2 6.0% 26.0% 4.6% 12.7% (68.8%) 59.9% 48.4% 10.5% 45.1% 47.2%

Total Debt / Equity % 54.1% 57.2% 104.2% - 0.1% 4.8% 21.2% 54.8% 26.5% 167.4% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Total Debt / Capital % 35.0% 36.2% 50.9% 106.1% 0.1% 4.5% 16.9% 34.3% 20.1% 62.0% FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Total Debt / EBITDA - 3.694x - - - 0.000x 0.456x 4.307x 0.855x 287.805x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Net Debt / EBITDA - 2.766x - - - -11.561x 0.146x 3.449x 0.445x 197.686x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

EBITDA / Int. Expense -3.642x 3.038x 5.526x 0.144x - 4.430x 52.415x 9.844x 6.090x 0.441x FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

S&P LT Credit Rating B BBB BBB SD - - BBB- BB - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

S&P LT Credit Rating Date 20.05.2011 17.11.2011 27.11.2012 23.04.2012 - - 18.03.2011 21.10.2010 - - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Moody's LT Credit Rating B1 - - - - - Baa2 WR B1 - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Moody's LT Credit Rating Date 19.05.2011 - - - - - 13.07.2009 15.05.2011 22.03.2012 - FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

52-Week High Date

52-Week Low

Latest Fiscal Year:

52-Week High

Total Debt

Market Capitalization

Daily Volume

52-Week Low % Change

Current Price (3/dd/yy)

52-Week High % Change

Cash and Equivalents

EBITDA

EV/EBITDA

Enterprise Value

Valuation

Preferred Stock

52-Week Low Date

Minority Interest

Total Common Shares (M)

P/E

Revenue Growth

Total Revenue

EV/Total Revenue

EPS

EBITDA Growth

EBITDA Margin

Credit Ratings

Leverage/Coverage Ratios

Company Analysis - Peers Comparision


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