Fin202 - Class 8-Ankush Verma

8/10/2019 Fin202 - Class 8-Ankush Verma

1/35

Start here Ratings sheet

Page 1

Output

Enter current long term government bond rate = 2.25%

Estimated Bond Rating = AA

Estimated Default Spread = 0.70%

Estimated Cost of Debt = 2.95% 2.35%

If you want to update the spreads listed below, please visit http://www.bondsonline.com

For large manufacturing firms

If interest coverage ratio is

> to Rating is Spread is

-100000 0.199999 D 12.00%

0.2 0.649999 C 10.50%

0.65 0.799999 CC 9.50%

0.8 1.249999 CCC 8.75%

1.25 1.499999 B- 7.25%

1.5 1.749999 B 6.50%

1.75 1.999999 B+ 5.50%

2 2.2499999 BB 4.00%

2.25 2.49999 BB+ 3.00%

2.5 2.999999 BBB 2.00%

3 4.249999 A- 1.30%

4.25 5.499999 A 1.00%

5.5 6.499999 A+ 0.85%

6.5 8.499999 AA 0.70%

8.50 100000 AAA 0.40%


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Cost Of Capital

Cost of Debt

rf 10year

spread

rating

rd 2.35%

Cost of E!ity

C"P# 0.5$% C"P# early &.31%

rf 0.2$%

beta 1.11$'((&'&'

r) 0.5(%

*"CC *d+Rd+,1-/*e+Re

d 0.'0%

e $$.20%

ta 35%

*"CC &.2(%

shares (&'.3(

Pri4e 550.00

#ar6et 7al!e of E!ity 3&380$'.00 *d+Rd+,1-/*e+Re

Other C!rrent 9iabilities (30

9D 283$0

)ar6et :al!e of interest bearing debt

;7

i

n

" < interest epense

otal #ar6et 7al!e of Debt


3/35

Google'

1 2At Closing 2011 2012

EBIT 12,326 13,386

E!T"1#t$ 8,012 8,701

1851 2962

-3438 -3273

-3234 -2703

Free Cash Flow %&11 (&)*+

Discount Factor 1 0.9323 0.8692

,-"FCF$ 2&+./) .&.%/2%

tableg = 0 g = 2

!u" #$%F&F 1*&+*) 1*&+*)

T$ 89,909 126,585

)%&%%. *&1+0

Total Enter *2&121 10+&()

(ar)*t +au* 0 0

$au* o Eui 82,121 107,956

Net ,resent *2&121 10+()

,ls3D*/r*ciation

4ins3

4ins3&

Ter5inal-ales

#$%T$'


4/35

at* 0/0+2)

rot 0.0600


5/35

Exhibit TN1

atio Analysis and Forecast of Free Cash Flows

3 4 5201% 201. ,ro6ection 201(,ro6ection

14,496 16,091 17,861

9,422 10,459 11,609 %#:: ;+*r'

3939 4827 5358

-7358 %5,530' %6,138' %i


6/35

.0(&%+ 0.04 0.05 0/0)

./08 ?DI$@0A 551,896 273,092

(/08 -542,505 ?DI$@0A 531,560

)/08 -263,574 -521,929 ?DI$@0A

+/08 -170,597 -253,473 -502,313

*/08 -124,108 -163,988 -243,845

/08 -96,215 -119,245 -157,68910/08 -77,619 -92,399 -114,611


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ssu"/tions

Ta< 0.35

2011 2012 201%

EBIT grot 9 8 11

D*/r*ciation 15 22 27

-28 -24 -51

& -26.2 -20.2 -25.8

-7,358,000 -3,273,000 -3,438,000

&ang*s In ccounts *c*i+a*s -1,307,000 -787,000

&ang*s In :iaiiti*s

&ang*s In In+*ntori*s -234,000

-3747 -2703

14,496,000 13,386,000 12,326,000

3,939,000 2,962,000 1,851,000

2,206,000 2,217,000

301,000


8/35

0.07 0.08 0.09 1' at i anaCsis

165,437 133,867 106,088.07 2' Data Ta*s

232,362 173,841 129,204.72 3' igigt igs

405,515 253,791 167,732.46

1,910,616 493,639 244,787.94

-652,124 ?DI$@0A 475,954.38

-269,186 -465,753 ?DI$@0A-165,764 -225,905 %448,711.39'


9/35

,ro6ection ,ro6ection

201. 201(

11 11

30 30

-34.4 -34.4

-24 -24

-1,156,000

-30,000

-3234

2,048,000


10/35


11/35

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS MODEL

ANALYST'S NAME Nick Serpico

NAME OF COMPANY Google

FIRST CALENDAR YEAR OF DATA 2011

NUMER OF YEARS OF DATA !

INCOME STATEMENT 2011 2012 201!

S"le# Re$e%&e ()*+( ()*+, ()-+0

Le##. Co#/ o Goo# Sol 1)+, 1)-21 1)!(*

Gro## Proi/# !)!*, !)!-- !)!!1 3IF4+5()F1!6F1()7 78

Le##. Oper"/i%g E9pe%#e#.

Selli%g:Ge%er"l:A;i% E9p 1)-1* 1)-(2 1),00

Re#e"rc< = De$elop;e%/ *1* ++- 1)00+

Le"#e E9pe%#e 2( 2!- 41!8

Depreci"/io% E9pe%#e !( !- (

To/"l Oper"/i%g E9pe%#e# 2)*, 2)+00 2),(1 3IF4+5()SUM4F1,.F2

Oper"/i%g Proi/# +00 -- *0 3IF4+5()F16F21)7 78

42,8 4()-(,8 4(!8

Ne/ Proi/# eore T"9e# +2, )21( -!! 3IF4+5()F226F2!)7 78

Le##. T"9e# 2(2 1)*(0 1!

Ne/ Proi/ A/er T"9e# +- !)2,! (+0 3IF4+5()F2(6F2)7 78

Le##. Pre> S/ock Di$#> 4(-!8 4-,18 4++-8

1)0(* !)*( 1)!-- IF4+5()F2-6F2,)7 78

ALANCE S?EET

C&rre%/ A##e/#.

C"#< 1)-2 2)--+ 2)0,+

M"rke/"@le Sec&ri/ie# (*! 1)1- 1)!!0Acco&%/# Recei$"@le 1)0(! 1)00 1)01,

Prep"i E9pe%#e#:O/ Fi%"%ci"l Le"#e#8 1)0!, 1)2! 2)!*0

To/"l Li"@ili/ie# 2)2( 2)(! !),!0 3IF4+5()F-BF,)7 78

Tre"#&r S/ock: O/


12/35

RATIO ANALYSIS

C&rre%/ R"/io 2>+- (>!+ !>,

&ick R"/io 2>+- (>!+ !>,

I%$e%/or T&r%o$er

A$er"ge Collec/io% Perio ,->!- ,->+, ,*>!1

Fi9e A##e/ T&r%o$er 0>(( 0>(( 0>(0

To/"l A##e/ T&r%o$er 0>!( 0>2* 0>2+

De@/ R"/io ,>02 ,>!! 1(>22

De@/6/o6E&i/ +>2, +>-1 1+>!0

Ti;e# I%/ere#/ E"r%e EIT:i%/ere#/ e9pe%#e

Gro## Proi/ M"rgi% -+>1- -,>0 ,1>1,

Oper"/i%g Proi/ M"rgi% 1->0- 11>!- 12>-0

Ne/ Proi/ M"rgi% 21>0( ,*>11 2*>1+

Re/&r% o% To/"l A##e/# 4ROA8 ,>0* 2!>0- +>1!

Re/&r% o% E&i/ 4ROE8 +>!- 2,>11 10>(-

E"r%i%g# Per S Recei$> 4,8 !!

Decre"#e i% I%$e%/orie# 4-(8 41+28

Decre"#e i% O/ 1+ 4(,8

I%cre"#e i% Accr&"l# 4--8 41*8

I%cre"#e i% T"9e# P""@le 0 0

I%cre"#e i% O/ Li"> 1!1 2*2

C"#< Flo ro; Oper> Ac/> !)!20 (2

I%cre"#e i% Gro## Fi9e A##e/# 4,1(8 41+,8

C"#< Flo ro; I%$e#/;e%/# 4,1(8 41+,8

I%cre"#e i% No/e# P""@le 0 0

I%cre"#e i% Lo%g6Ter; De@/ 21 1)1!,

C i% C"#< : M"rk> Sec&ri/ie# 2)1!- 2)2*(

CAS? FLOH FROM OPERATING

ACTIITIES

CAS? FLOH FROM INESTMENTACTIITIES

CAS? FLOH FROM FINANCINGACTIITIES

Co;;o% Di$ie%# P"i 468

A B C D E F G H

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

9293

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116

117

118

119

120

121

122


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15/35

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12?2?2013 5(0.$2 (%

)ean 3%

sd 11%

Co!nt 112

Standard Error 1.00%

R; 0.2$%

Proability of losing )oney #"CROA


16/35

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17/35

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18/35

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19/35

SBP

Date "d= Close >PR

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3?1?2011 1325.'3 -0.10%

@?1?2011 13(3.(1 2.'5%

5?2?2011 [email protected] -1.35%

(?1?2011 1320.(@ -1.'3%&?1?2011 12$2.2' -2.15%

'?1?2011 121'.'$ -5.('%

$?1?2011 1131.@2 -&.1'%

10?3?2011 1253.3 10.&&%

11?1?2011 12@(.$( -0.51%

12?1?2011 125&.( 0.'5%

1?3?2012 1312.@1 @.3(%

2?1?2012 13(5.(' @.0(%

3?1?2012 1@0'.@& 3.13%

@?2?2012 13$&.$1 -0.&5%

5?1?2012 1310.33 -(.2&%

(?1?2012 13(2.1( 3.$(%

&?2?2012 13&$.32 1.2(%

'?1?2012 1@0(.5' 1.$'%

$?@?2012 1@@0.(& 2.@2%

10?1?2012 [email protected]( -1.$'%

11?1?2012 1@1(.1' 0.2'%

12?3?2012 1@2(.1$ 0.&1%

1?2?2013 1@$'.11 5.0@%

2?1?2013 151@.(' 1.11%

3?1?2013 15($.1$ 3.(0%

@?1?2013 15$&.5& 1.'1%

5?1?2013 1(30.&@ 2.0'%(?3?2013 1(0(.2' -1.50%


21/35

SBP

&?1?2013 1('5.&3 @.$5%

'?1?2013 1(32.$& -3.13%

$?3?2013 1('1.55 2.$&%

10?1?2013 1&5(.5@ @.@(%

11?1?2013 1'05.'1 2.'0%

12?2?2013 1'@'.3( 2.3(%

":erage 0.5(%


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regression

Page 22

Date SBP oogle R; SBP-rf oogle-rf

'?2?200@

$?1?200@ 0.5$% 2(.2@%

10?1?200@ 1.0&% @(.&'%

11?1?200@ 3.50% -@.$1%

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1?3?2005 -2.'&% 1.13%2?1?2005 1.53% [email protected](%

3?1?2005 -2.2$% [email protected]%

@?1?2005 -2.3(% 21.52%

5?2?2005 2.((% 25.($%

(?1?2005 -0.3@% 5.&(%

&?1?2005 3.2@% -2.53%

'?1?2005 -1.@(% -0.$5%

$?1?2005 0.33% 10.2$%

10?3?2005 -2.15% 1&.22%

11?1?2005 3.1@% '.@3%

12?1?2005 -0.@(% 2.0$%

1?3?200( 2.1&% 3.$1%2?1?200( -0.33% -1(.5&%

3?1?200( 0.&1% &.15%

@?3?200( 0.&$% (.&@%

5?1?200( -3.52% -11.@(%

(?1?200( -0.@2% 12.3@%

&?3?200( 0.0$% -'.22%

'?1?200( 1.&3% -2.@'%

$?1?200( 2.0&% 5.&$%

10?2?200( 2.&&% 1'.15%

11?1?200( 1.2&% 1.@0%

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1?3?200& 1.00% '.51%

2?1?200& -2.5(% -10.&(%

3?1?200& 0.(1% 1.55%

@?2?200& 3.$@% 2.50%

5?1?200& 2.'5% 5.22%

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$?@?200& 3.20% $.&2%

10?1?200& 1.11% [email protected](%

11?1?200& -@.&@% -2.31%

12?3?200& -1.20% -0.55%1?2?200' -(.@2% -1'.&0%

2?1?200' -3.&&% -1(.&$%

3?3?200' -0.''% -(.'0%

@?1?200' @.@@% 30.0(%

5?1?200' 0.&3% 1.(&%

(?2?200' -'.$3% -10.@&%

&?1?200' -1.32% -10.3@%

'?1?200' 0.$0% -2.52%

-20.00

Residuals


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regression

Page 25

S##"R OP

Regression Statistics

#!ltiple R 0.@(1&2105@$

R S!are 0.2131'(3325

"d=!sted R S!are 0.20(0$&$211

Standard Error 0.0$35&&'$'$Obser:ations 113

"O7"

df

Regression 1

Resid!al 111

otal 112

Coecients

Fnter4ept 0.020($15&5&

G 7ariable 1 1.11$'((&'&'

RESFD"9 OP

Observation Predicted Y

1 0.02&33302&5

2 0.032(2@&'01

3 0.05$'@3$1(&

@ 0.05310215&2

5 -0.011@'@5(5

( 0.03&&$1$$&$& -0.00@$1&1@3

' -0.005&@($

$ 0.050@$1(321

10 0.01('5@$002

11 0.05($(&(@'(

12 0.00@3&2'@&'

13 0.02@@32(102

1@ -0.003@311'5

-15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00%

-0.5

0

0.5

X Variable 1 Residual Plot

X Variable 1 -20.

Y


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regression

Page 2(

15 0.055'$5'@3(

1( 0.01552'1&2'

1& 0.0@@$'35@5@

1' 0.01($52'221

1$ 0.02'5$13115

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21 -0.01'&0000122 0.015$$1'02@

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2@ 0.0@0101&&@2

25 0.0@3''1&113

2( 0.051(&@215(

2& 0.03@$($'133

2' 0.030@2@05$&

2$ 0.031$2'@1@

30 -0.00'01$35'

31 0.02&52'311'

32 0.0(@'5055@(

33 0.0525&'$1'(3@ -0.003$5@@2(

35 -0.01$5&53&

3( 0.030'(025(2

3& 0.05(501$30&

3' 0.03311$112(

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regression

Page 2&

(5 -0.02@0'3(05

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(' 0.033'0@@(23

($ -0.0&@1$01(@

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&3 0.11(3'5@2$1

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$2 0.010512$22$

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100 0.02($(@(&0(

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112 0.0@@2511@(5

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regression

Page 2'

SS MS F Signicance F

0.2(33(@3&1 0.2(33(@3&1 30.0&5332'0$ 0.0000002(@

0.$&200&3& 0.00'&5('23

1.2353&1&@1

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower !" #$$er !" Lower !%&"

0.00''202$3 2.3@5$05&3 0.020&5(102& 0.0032135&(5 0.03'1($5&5 0.0032135&(

0.20@2025@2 5.@'@0$'1&( 0.0000002(@ 0.&15225'1$ 1.52@50&&5& 0.&15225'1$

Residuals

0.2350@1(02

0.@351'555'

-0.10'$(03'

0.002&&$50&

0.022&5$@5

-0.0'0@@0&5-0.03'5'203

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0% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00%-0.5

0

0.5

1

X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot

X Variable 1


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regression

Page 2$

0.02'@0312

0.0053'((&1

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Page 30

-0.12@13$0@

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Page 31

#$$er !%&"

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Page 32


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regression

Page 33


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Sheet13

Page 3@

0

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Sheet13

1,000 33% 1.25% 0.@12500%

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9 3@% 3.(3% 1.232500%2.3@(250%

1,009

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Fin202 - Class 8-Ankush Verma

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Transcript of Fin202 - Class 8-Ankush Verma