Fifty-Year Crude Oil Supply Scenarios: Saudi Aramco’s Perspective
Transcript of Fifty-Year Crude Oil Supply Scenarios: Saudi Aramco’s Perspective
Mahmoud M. Abdul BaqiNansen G. Saleri
Saudi Aramco
Mahmoud M. Abdul BaqiNansen G. Saleri
Saudi Aramco
Fifty-YearCrude Oil Supply Scenarios:Saudi Aramco’s Perspective
Fifty-YearCrude Oil Supply Scenarios:Saudi Aramco’s Perspective
February 24, 2004CSIS, Washington D.C.
February 24, 2004CSIS, Washington D.C.
World Oil Demand (Million Barrels / Day)World Oil Demand (Million Barrels / Day)
Source: OPEC OWEM (2002)Source: OPEC OWEM (2002)
0
25
50
75
100
125125
20002000 2010 20202005 2015
North America50 Billion BarrelsNorth America
50 Billion Barrels
2002 Year-End Conventional Oil Reserves((((1050 Billion Barrels)2002 Year-End Conventional Oil Reserves((((1050 Billion Barrels)
South & Central America99 Billion Barrels
South & Central America99 Billion Barrels
Europe19 Billion Barrels
Europe19 Billion Barrels
Africa77 Billion Barrels
Africa77 Billion Barrels
Middle East686 Billion Barrels
Middle East686 Billion Barrels
F. S. U77 Billion Barrels
F. S. U77 Billion Barrels
Asia Pacific39 Billions Barrels
Asia Pacific39 Billions Barrels
0 200 400 600 800
North AmericaAsia Pacific
Middle East
Europe
AfricaF. S. USouth & Central America
Source: BP Annual Statistical ReviewSource: BP Annual Statistical Review
Saudi Aramco’s PerspectiveSaudi Aramco’s Perspective
• Sustainable Performance • Maximum Hydrocarbon Recovery• Life-Cycle Economics • Prudent Reserves Management• Excellence in Safety and
Environmental Practices
• Sustainable Performance • Maximum Hydrocarbon Recovery• Life-Cycle Economics • Prudent Reserves Management• Excellence in Safety and
Environmental Practices
Reliable Supplier of OilReliable Supplier of OilReliable Supplier of OilReliable Supplier of OilReliable Supplier of OilReliable Supplier of OilReliable Supplier of OilReliable Supplier of Oil
Principles:Principles:Principles:Principles:Principles:Principles:Principles:Principles:
Current OperationsCurrent Operations
Area: 579,000 Square MilesFields: 85Reservoirs: 320Global Oil Reserves: 25%Current Capacity: 10 Million Barrels/Day &
9.6 Billion Cubic Feet/DaySeismic Crews: 9Rigs: 48Replace Annual Oil Prod: 3 Billion BarrelsAdd Annual Gas: 5 Trillion Cubic Feet
Area: 579,000 Square MilesFields: 85Reservoirs: 320Global Oil Reserves: 25%Current Capacity: 10 Million Barrels/Day &
9.6 Billion Cubic Feet/DaySeismic Crews: 9Rigs: 48Replace Annual Oil Prod: 3 Billion BarrelsAdd Annual Gas: 5 Trillion Cubic Feet
0 100 200
Miles
300
Exploration Wells in Saudi ArabiaExploration Wells in Saudi Arabia
Arabian Shield
A r a b i a n
S h i e l d
A r a b i a n A r a b i a n
S h i e l dS h i e l d
100 200 3000Miles
US Geological Survey 2000 Estimate of Top 8 Regions of Undiscovered Recoverable Oil Resources
US Geological Survey 2000 Estimate of Top 8 Regions of Undiscovered Recoverable Oil Resources
Mea
n O
il R
esou
rces
(Bill
ion
Bar
rels
)M
ean
Oil
Res
ourc
es(B
illio
n B
arre
ls)
00
1010
2020
3030
4040
5050
6060
7070
8080
9090
SaudiArabiaSaudiArabia RussiaRussia IranIran GreenlandGreenland BrazilBrazil IraqIraq NigeriaNigeria Kazakhstan
8787
7777
53534747 4747 4545
3838
2121
Source: USGS 2000Source: USGS 2000
Growth Of Oil Initially In PlaceGrowth Of Oil Initially In PlaceGrowth Of Oil Initially In PlaceGrowth Of Oil Initially In PlaceGrowth Of Oil Initially In PlaceGrowth Of Oil Initially In PlaceGrowth Of Oil Initially In PlaceGrowth Of Oil Initially In Place
500500
550550
600600
650650
700700
750750
19801980 19851985 19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005
Bill
ions
of B
arre
lsB
illio
ns o
f Bar
rels
Discovered & Undiscovered Oil Initially in Place by 2025 in Saudi ArabiaDiscovered & Undiscovered Oil Initially in Place by 2025 in Saudi Arabia
200200
700700
900900
00
200200
400400
600600
800800
10001000
DiscoveredDiscovered UndiscoveredUndiscovered TotalTotal
Bill
ions
of B
arre
lsB
illio
ns o
f Bar
rels
Proved Reserves(Saudi Aramco vs. Industry)Proved Reserves(Saudi Aramco vs. Industry)
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Reserves are ConservativeSaudi Arabia’s Oil Reserves are ConservativeSaudi Arabia’s Oil Reserves are ConservativeSaudi Arabia’s Oil Reserves are ConservativeSaudi Arabia’s Oil Reserves are ConservativeSaudi Arabia’s Oil Reserves are ConservativeSaudi Arabia’s Oil Reserves are ConservativeSaudi Arabia’s Oil Reserves are Conservative
SPE/WPC/AAPGSPE/WPC/AAPGSaudi
AramcoSaudi
AramcoCommercial (Current) Commercial (Current)
- Prices- Prices
- Operating Methods- Operating Methods
Areal ExtentAreal Extent- Hydrocarbon Water Contact- Hydrocarbon Water Contact
- Deepest Known Hydrocarbon Depth- Deepest Known Hydrocarbon Depth
Improved Recovery Improved Recovery - Pressure Maintenance- Pressure Maintenance
- All Other EOR Methods- All Other EOR Methods none none Degree of CertaintyDegree of Certainty 90%90% 90%90%
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Extent of Proved Reserves DepletionSelect Fields (1/1/2004)Extent of Proved Reserves DepletionSelect Fields (1/1/2004)
% R
eser
ves
Prod
uced
% R
eser
ves
Prod
uced
551010 1313
16162121 2626
2828
4848
6060
7373
2828
00
2525
5050
7575
100100
HaradhMarjan Abu Sa’fah
Zuluf Safaniya GhawarTotalBerri ‘Ain Dar /
ShedgumTotal
Saudi Aramco
ShaybahShaybah
AbqaiqAbqaiq
Total Saudi
Aramco
Total Saudi
Aramco
ShaybahAbqaiq
Note: Haradh and ‘Ain Dar / Shedgum are part of GhawarNote: Haradh and ‘Ain Dar / Shedgum are part of Ghawar
Discovered Oil ReservesDevelopment Status (1/1/2004)
Discovered Oil ReservesDevelopment Status (1/1/2004)
260Billion Barrels
260Billion Barrels
ProvedProved
131 Billion Barrels (50%)
Developed
Saudi Aramco’s Reservoir Management “Learning Model”Saudi Aramco’s Reservoir Management “Learning Model”
• Maximum Hydrocarbon Recovery • Reservoir Monitoring• Low Depletion Rates• Advanced Diagnostics• Cutting Edge Technologies
• Maximum Hydrocarbon Recovery • Reservoir Monitoring• Low Depletion Rates• Advanced Diagnostics• Cutting Edge Technologies
EmphasisEmphasisEmphasisEmphasis::::EmphasisEmphasisEmphasisEmphasis::::
Continual ImprovementContinual ImprovementContinual ImprovementContinual ImprovementContinual ImprovementContinual ImprovementContinual ImprovementContinual Improvement
Maximum Annual Depletion Rates(% of Initial Proved Reserves)Maximum Annual Depletion Rates(% of Initial Proved Reserves)
9.69.6
ABSFABSF SFNY(S & K)SFNY
(S & K)ZULF
(K)ZULF
(K)ANDRANDR ABQQ
(D & H)ABQQ(D & H)
BRRI(H & H)BRRI
(H & H)Prudhoe
BayPrudhoe
BayYibalYibal East
TexasEast
TexasEkofiskEkofisk FortiesForties BrentBrent
Saudi AramcoSaudi Aramco Other MajorsOther Majors
7.47.46.56.5
4.54.54.34.34.24.24.14.12.82.8
2.22.21.81.81.51.511
Source: Saudi AramcoSource: Saudi Aramco Source: SPE PublicationsSource: SPE Publications
Shaybah FieldShaybah Field
Area Size: 38 Miles x 13 Miles
Production Start: July 1, 1998500,000 B/D
Production Start: July 1, 1998500,000 B/D
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Production RateB/D x 1000
Production RateB/D x 1000
Depletion Rate: 1% per YearProduction Plateau: > 50 Years
Depletion Rate: 1% per YearProduction Plateau: > 50 Years
GasOil
Water
Evolution of Horizontal Drilling Technology(South Shaybah)
Evolution of Horizontal Drilling Technology(South Shaybah)
HorizontalHorizontal19961996199619963,000 B/D1 km
JPT (Dec. 2003)SPE 81487 (MEOS 2003)JPT (Dec. 2003)SPE 81487 (MEOS 2003)
Maximum Reservoir ContactMaximum Reservoir Contact200220022002200210,000 B/D12 km
Ghawar FieldThe Super GiantGhawar FieldThe Super Giant
HaradhHaradh
HawiyahHawiyah
‘Uthmaniyah‘Uthmaniyah
ShedgumShedgum‘Ain Dar‘Ain Dar
FazranFazran
• Largest Oil Field in the World
• Discovery (1948)
• Onstream (1951)
• Peripheral Water Injection (1965)
• Largest Oil Field in the World
• Discovery (1948)
• Onstream (1951)
• Peripheral Water Injection (1965)
Area Size: 174 Miles x 16 MilesArea Size: 174 Miles x 16 Miles
‘Ain Dar/Shedgum AreaArab D Production History‘Ain Dar/Shedgum AreaArab D Production History
Res
ervo
ir P
ress
ure
P S
IR
eser
voir
Pre
ssur
eP
S I
2 Million B/D2 Million B/D
PressurePressure
80008000
60006000
40004000
20002000
00
00
4040
8080
Wat
er -
Cut
%W
ater
-C
ut %
19511951 19611961 19711971 19811981 19911991 20012001
36% Water-Cut36% Water-Cut
Pro
duct
ion
Rat
e, B
/D X
100
0P
rodu
ctio
n R
ate,
B/D
X 1
000
30003000
20002000
10001000
00
Start-upWater Injection
(1965)
Start-upWater Injection
(1965)
Oil ProductionOil Production
‘‘‘‘Ain Dar/Shedgum Area / Arab DResources Depletion State (1/1/2004)Resources Depletion State (1/1/2004)Resources Depletion State (1/1/2004)Resources Depletion State (1/1/2004)‘‘‘‘Ain Dar/Shedgum Area / Arab DResources Depletion State (1/1/2004)Resources Depletion State (1/1/2004)Resources Depletion State (1/1/2004)Resources Depletion State (1/1/2004)
OIIP: 68.1 Billion BarrelsProved Reserves: 40.8 Billion Barrels (60% of OIIP)Estimated Ultimate Recovery: 51 Billion Barrels (75% of OIIP)
OIIP: 68.1 Billion BarrelsProved Reserves: 40.8 Billion Barrels (60% of OIIP)Estimated Ultimate Recovery: 51 Billion Barrels (75% of OIIP)
* Probable:3.4 Billion Barrels* Probable:3.4 Billion Barrels* Incremental* Incremental
10%
25%
5%20%
40%
10%
25%
5%20%
40%
Remaining Proved:13.9 Billion BarrelsRemaining Proved:13.9 Billion Barrels
Contingent Resources:17.1 Billion BarrelsContingent Resources:17.1 Billion Barrels
Produced:26.9 Billion BarrelsProduced:26.9 Billion Barrels
* Possible:6.8 Billion Barrels* Possible:6.8 Billion Barrels
Ghawar FieldWater ManagementGhawar FieldWater Management
Ave
rage
Oil
Rat
eM
illion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Ave
rage
Oil
Rat
eM
illion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Wat
er -
Cut
%W
ater
-C
ut %Water - CutWater - Cut
Oil RateOil Rate
33%33%36.5%36.5%
0.00.0
2.52.5
5.05.0
7.57.5
10.010.0
12.512.5
19931993 19951995 19971997 19991999 20012001 20032003 00
1010
2020
3030
4040
5050
e-Field/Smart WellsHaradh Increment IIIHaradh Increment IIIHaradh Increment IIIHaradh Increment IIIe-Field/Smart WellsHaradh Increment IIIHaradh Increment IIIHaradh Increment IIIHaradh Increment III
52
28
499735
703733
1701
1702
1703
1704
1700
1500
1501
1502
1503
1504
1505
1506
3
2728
36
38
39
40
41
43
47
1400
1401
1402
1403
1404
1406
1407
1408
1409
1410
1415
1416
1417
1418
1419
14431445 14241446
1441
1444
1436
1423
1422
1421
1420
1435
1442
1434
1433
1432
1431
1429
1428
1439
1437
1427
1425
14141412
1405
1430
1447
1426
1440
1413
1411
1427
1438
1430
1447
1426
1710
1711
1712
1713
1714
1715
1716
1717
1718
1719
1720
1721
1722
1723
1724
1725
1726
1727
1728
1729
1730
1731
1732
1733
1734
1735
1736
1737
667
651
52
28
499735
703733
1701
1702
1703
1704
1700
1500
1501
1502
1503
1504
1505
1506
3
2728
36
38
39
40
41
43
47
1400
1401
1402
1403
1404
1406
1407
1408
1409
1410
1415
1416
1417
1418
1419
14431445 14241446
1441
1444
1436
1423
1422
1421
1420
1435
1442
1434
1433
1432
1431
1429
1428
1439
1437
1427
1425
14141412
1405
1430
1447
1426
1440
1413
1411
1427
1438
1430
1447
1426
1710
1711
1712
1713
1714
1715
1716
1717
1718
1719
1720
1721
1722
1723
1724
1725
1726
1727
1728
1729
1730
1731
1732
1733
1734
1735
1736
1737
667
651
Quad-Lateral Smart CompletionQuad-Lateral Smart Completion
Onstream: July 2006Rate: 300,000 B/DPlateau: 30 YearsDepletion: 1.7% per Year
Onstream: July 2006Rate: 300,000 B/DPlateau: 30 YearsDepletion: 1.7% per Year
Haradh Increment III ForecastHaradh Increment III Forecast
00
100100
200200
300300
400400
20062006 20112011 20162016 20212021 20262026 20312031 203620360
2020
4040
6060Oil
Rat
e, B
/D x
100
0O
il R
ate,
B/D
x 1
000
Wat
er -
Cut
%W
ater
-C
ut %
Rate: 300,000 B/DRate: 300,000 B/D
22 % Water - Cut22 % Water - Cut
50-Year Crude Scenarios10 Million Barrels / Day 10 Million Barrels / Day 10 Million Barrels / Day 10 Million Barrels / Day Maximum Sustainable Capacity - MSC
50-Year Crude Scenarios10 Million Barrels / Day 10 Million Barrels / Day 10 Million Barrels / Day 10 Million Barrels / Day Maximum Sustainable Capacity - MSC
20002000 20102010 20202020 20302030 20402040 2050205000
22
44
66
88
1010
1212
20162016 2042204220042004
Reserves: 260 Billion BarrelsReserves: 260 Billion Barrels
Oil
Rat
eM
illio
n B
arre
ls p
er D
ayO
il R
ate
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Production Rate: Based on Market Outlook Until 2016Production Rate: Based on Market Outlook Until 2016
Reserves Replacement 15 Billion Barrels (15% of Prob. & Pos. Reserves)
MSC = Production RateMSC = Production Rate
M S CM S CM S CM S CM S CM S CM S CM S C
50-Year Crude Scenarios 12 Million Barrels / Day12 Million Barrels / Day12 Million Barrels / Day12 Million Barrels / DayMaximum Sustainable Capacity Maximum Sustainable Capacity Maximum Sustainable Capacity Maximum Sustainable Capacity ---- MSCMSCMSCMSC
50-Year Crude Scenarios 12 Million Barrels / Day12 Million Barrels / Day12 Million Barrels / Day12 Million Barrels / DayMaximum Sustainable Capacity Maximum Sustainable Capacity Maximum Sustainable Capacity Maximum Sustainable Capacity ---- MSCMSCMSCMSC
20002000 20102010 20202020 20302030 20402040 2050205000
2033203320162016
M S CM S CM S CM S CM S CM S CM S CM S C
Oil
Rat
eM
illio
n B
arre
ls p
er D
ayO
il R
ate
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
22
44
66
88
1010
1212
1414
Reserves Replacement 35 Billion Barrels (34% of Prob. & Pos. Reserves)
Reserves: 260 Billion BarrelsReserves: 260 Billion Barrels
MSC = Production Rate in 2016MSC = Production Rate in 2016
Production Rate: Based on Market Outlook Until 2016Production Rate: Based on Market Outlook Until 2016
• Real-Time Reservoir Management• Intelligent Wells / e-Field• 100 Million Cell Models• Best-in-Class Practices
• Real-Time Reservoir Management• Intelligent Wells / e-Field• 100 Million Cell Models• Best-in-Class Practices
The FutureThe Future
Lower Unit CostsLower Unit CostsLower Unit CostsLower Unit CostsIncrease RecoveryIncrease RecoveryIncrease RecoveryIncrease RecoveryLower Unit CostsLower Unit CostsLower Unit CostsLower Unit CostsIncrease RecoveryIncrease RecoveryIncrease RecoveryIncrease Recovery
SynopsisSynopsis
• Conservative Reserves with Significant Upward Potential
• Capacity and Commitment to Continue as a Reliable and Cost-Effective Global Oil Supplier
• Sustained Production Levels at 10, 12 and 15 Million Barrels per Day, Well Beyond 2054
• Conservative Reserves with Significant Upward Potential
• Capacity and Commitment to Continue as a Reliable and Cost-Effective Global Oil Supplier
• Sustained Production Levels at 10, 12 and 15 Million Barrels per Day, Well Beyond 2054