INTRODUCTION

• IT HAS BEEN ALMOST 68 YEARS SINCE THE CREATION OF PAKISTAN.

• IN THIS HUGE SPAN OF TIME PAKISTAN HAS THREE MILITARY DICTATORSHIPS AND FOUR DEMOCRATIC ERA’S.

• BUT STILL THE DEBATE EXISTS THAT WHICH IS BEST FOR PAKISTAN???

DEMOCRACY

OR

DICTATORSHIP??

TOPIC:

Dictatorship vs democracy in Pakistan in

the light of economic indicators

WHAT IS DICTATORSHIP

• A government controlled by one person, or a

small group of people. The dictator(s) may

also take away much of its peoples' freedom.

• Dictatorship refers to an autocratic form of

absolute rule by leadership unrestricted by

law, constitution , or other social and political

factors within the state.

DICTATORS UP TILL NOW WHO RULED PAKISTAN

FROM 1958 - 2008

General Ayub Khan from 1958 to 1969

General Muhammad Yahya Khan from

1969 to 1971

General Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq from

1977 to 1988

General Pervez Musharraf from

1999 to 2008

FIRST DICTATOR ERA AYUB KHAN1958 TO 1969

ECONOMIC CONDITION OF PAKISTAN: COUNTRY WAS IN TOTAL DISARRAY.

HAD NO ECONOMIC WEAPON IN THEIR ARMORY TO FIGHT THE

BATTLE OF ITS RECOVERY.

GROWTH RATE OF 11 YEARS (1959-70) WAS AS HIGH AS 6.25%.

CREATED AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE PRIVATE SECTOR WAS

ENCOURAGED TO ESTABLISH MEDIUM AND SMALL-SCALE

INDUSTRIES IN PAKISTAN.

FIRST DICTATOR ERA AYUB KHAN1958 TO 1969

ECONOMIC CONDITION OF PAKISTAN:OPENED UP AVENUES FOR NEW JOB OPPORTUNITIES, THE

ECONOMIC GRAPH OF THE COUNTRY STARTED RISING.

HE WAS THE FIRST PAKISTANI RULER WHO ATTEMPTED TO

BRING IN LAND REFORMS BUT THE IDEA WAS NOT

IMPLEMENTED PROPERLY.

LABOR, LAW AND ADMINISTRATIVE REFORMS WERE ALSO

INTRODUCED DURING HIS REGIME.

Growth rate was as high as 6.25%.

GDP PEAKS (MAXIMUM GROWTH)

YEAR GDP PRESIDENT1953 10.2219641969

9.389.79

AYUB KHAN(1962-1969)

1984 8.71 ZIA UL HAQ(1978-1988)

2004 8.96 PERVEZ MUSHARRAF(2000-2007)

GDP DIPS (MINIMUM GROWTH)

YEAR GDP PRESIDENT1959 0.88 ISKANDAR MIRZA

1970 1.23 YAHYA KHAN

1996 1.90 FAROOQ LAGHARI

1999-2000 1.96 RAFIQ TARAR

2008-2009 1.21 ASIF ZARDARI

SECOND DICTATOR YAHYA KHAN1969 TO 1971

THIRD DICTATOR ZIA-UL-HAQ1977 TO 1988

FOURTH DICTATOR PERVEZ MUSHARRAF2001- 2008

ISKA

NDAR MIR

ZA 195

6-58

AYUB K

HAN 196

2-69

YAHYA

KHAN 1

969-

71

Z.A B

HUTTO 1

971-

73

FAZAL

ILLA

HI 197

3-78

ZIA U

L HAQ 1

978-

88

G ISHAQ K

HAN 198

8-93

FAROOQ L

AGHARI 199

3-97

RAFIQ T

ARAR 199

8-20

00

PERVEZ

MUSH

ARRAF 20

00-0

8

ASIF

ALI Z

ARDARI 200

8-13

3.66

7.1

1.77

7.1

4.65

6.4

4.784.21

3.35

5.8

3.01

GDP (AVG)GDP (AVG)

CRITICAL ANALYSIS ON GDP OF DIFFERENT ERA’S

UNDER THE RULE OF ZIA-UL-HAQ FOR THE PERIOD OF TEN YEAR THE GDP

OF PAKISTAN WAS ON THE INCREASING TREND. DURING THE TEN YEARS OF

ZIA-UL-HAQ’S RULE THE GDP OF PAKISTAN INCREASED BY 154% WHILE THE

AVERAGE GDP GROWTH RATE WAS 6.5%.

DURING THIS TWO YEARS RULE OF MOHTARMA BENAZIR BHUTTO IT IS

OBSERVED THAT THE GDP OF PAKISTAN DECLINED BY 2% GDP GROWTH

RATE ALSO DECLINED BY 10%.

THE THREE YEARS RULED BY PML(N) AND MIAN NAWAZ SHARIF SHOW

THAT IN THESE THREE YEARS THE GDP OF PAKISTAN INCREASED BY 18.3%

WHILE THE AVERAGE GROWTH RATE PER YEAR WAS 4.3% PER YEAR.

CRITICAL ANALYSIS ON GDP OF DIFFERENT ERA’S

DURING THE RULE MUSHARRAF IN 8 YEARS THERE WAS A MASSIVE

INCREASE IN GDP BY 120%.

IN THE GOVERNMENT OF ASIF ALI ZARDARI, GDP ROSE EXTRA-ORDINARY IN

A DECREASING MANNER BUT AFTER SOME YEAR AND GDP BECOMES

STABLE AT 3.7%.

ANALYSTS PORTRAY THE 2008-2013 GDP GROWTH AS PAKISTAN’S LOWEST.

(WORLD BANK DATABASES SHOW THAT GROWTH WAS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY

LOWER DURING 1997-2002 UNDER SHARIF AND MUSHARRAF.)

INFLATION

CRITICAL ANALYSIS ON INFLATION OF DIFFERENT ERA’S

Under Zia’s rule, the data of inflation shows that that the in this ten year rule the average inflation rate/year was 7% while in these ten years a negative growth of 13% can be seen in the observed.

Under PPPP governance, there was an increase in the inflation and inflation during those two years increased by 15%.

The inflation in musharaf rule was very well controlled except for 2008 when the rate of inflation was increased to 20% while the average inflation rate per year during his rule was 7%.

In Asif Zardari’s era, inflation increased in extra ordinary manners for first two years and after that it showed some sort of stableness.

The positive thing about Nawaz Shareef government was that the inflation decreased by 15.2% while the average rate of inflation per year was 10%.

UNEMPLOYMENT

CRITICAL ANALYSIS ON UNEMPLOYMENT OF DIFFERENT ERA’S IN ZIA’S RULE, THE UNEMPLOYMENT INCREASED FOR FEW YEARS BUT THEN IT WAS WELL

CONTROLLED AND IN HIS RULE THE UNEMPLOYMENT DECREASED BY THE 1% AS COMPARED TO

THE PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT.

IN THE PERIOD OF MOHTARMA BENAZIR BHUTTO, THE UNEMPLOYMENT IN PAKISTAN

DECREASED BY 18%.

THE AVERAGE UNEMPLOYMENT DURING PML(N) GOVERNMENT RATE WAS 5.1% WHICH IS

MUCH GREATER COMPARED TO THE PPP GOVERNMENT.

UNDER MUSHARAF’S RULE, THOUGH THE UNEMPLOYMENT INCREASED FOR FEW YEARS BUT

THEN IT WAS WELL CONTROLLED AND IN HIS RULE THE UNEMPLOYMENT DECREASED BY THE 1%

AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT.

The unemployment rate under Asif Zardari’s government increased to 6.5% and according to

express news turbine survey, it was said that one out of every 10 people of the country are

suffering from unemployment. The unemployment rate in urban areas of Pakistan increased

by 2% to 10.1%, whereas, the unemployment rate in rural areas increased from 4.3% to 5%.

CRITICAL ANALYSIS ON UNEMPLOYMENT OF DIFFERENT ERA’S

ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION

CRITICAL ANALYSIS ON ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN DIFFERENT ERA’S:-

• ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION DURING ZIA-UL-HAQ’S ERA INCREASED BY 200% IN THE TEN YEARS WHICH SHOWS THAT ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION WAS GIVEN MUCH PREFERENCE BY HIM.

•  THERE WAS AN INCREASE IN THE PRODUCTION OF ELECTRICITYIN BENAZIR REIGN BUT ONLY BY 8%.

•  ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN NAWAZ SHAREEF’S GOVERNMENT INCREASED BY 23% WHICH WAS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF ELECTRICITY PRODUCED.

• THE INCREASE IN THE ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION DURING MUSHARAF RULE WASN’T THAT EFFECTIVE BECAUSE IN THE PERIOD OF EIGHT YEARS IT ONLY INCREASED BY 30%.

• IN ASIF ZARDARI’S RULE, THE GOVERNMENT HADN’T PAY ANY SORT OF ATTENTION IN POWER SECTOR, THAT IS WHY THE PRODUCTION REMAINED ALMOST SAME.

CONCLUSION

•  IF WE CONSIDER GDP AS THE FACTOR FOR EVALUATION OF GOVERNMENTS THEN DICTATORSHIP PROVES A BETTER OPTION.

• THE SECOND ECONOMIC INDICATOR USED IN THIS REPORT IS ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION WHICH ALSO INDICATES THE HIGHEST GROWTH RATES IN THE TERMS OF ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION WAS UNDER THE GOVERNMENT OF MUSHARAF AND ZIA-UL-HAQ THEREFORE THIS FACTOR ALSO SUPPORTS DICTATORSHIP.

• OUR THIRD ECONOMIC INDICATOR IN IN THIS REPORT IS INFLATION AND IT ALSO INDICATES THAT THE INFLATION RATES WERE LOW AND CONTROLLED UNDER THE GOVERNMENTS OF MUSHARAF AND ZIA AS COMPARED TO GOVERNMENT OF PPP AND PML(N) THEREFORE THIS FACTOR ALSO SUPPORTS DICTATORSHIP AS A BETTER FORM OF GOVERNMENT.

• UNEMPLOYMENT IS THE FOURTH ECONOMIC FACTOR WHICH WE HAVE USED TO EVALUATE GOVERNMENTS IN THE PAST THIRTY YEARS AND THIS ALSO SHOWS THAT THE UNEMPLOYMENT WAS LEAST DURING THE RULE OF ZIA-UL-HAQ WHILE MUSHARAF HAD THE HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATES SO THERE IS LITTLE EDGE FOR DEMOCRACY FOR MAINTAINING UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.

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1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 - 2006

1950 - 2006

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

TRENDS IN GDP GROWTH RATES

GDPAGRICUTUREINDUSTRYMANUFACTURINGSERVICES