F066-B08-059 © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. MITRE-CAASD’s systemwideModeler...
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Transcript of F066-B08-059 © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. MITRE-CAASD’s systemwideModeler...
F066-B08-059© 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.
MITRE-CAASD’s systemwideModeler
State and Near-Term Plans
Pete Kuzminski
10 December 2008
© 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.F066-B08-059
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systemwideModeler
Background Files
Scenario Generation4-D Trajectory
Modeling
Post Processing
systemwideModeler Resources
ETMS
Query Flight Info
GRASPItinerary File
Transits File
Itinerary File
Equipment
Airspace
Airports
Fixes
ARTCCs
Operators
Sectors
Sector Schedule
TRACONs
Convert to .itin format
ATO-P Demand File
Generate Background
Files
GADS
TSSIM
Airport
TRACON
CorridorSector
Airframe
GDP
MIT
DB
Load Input
Load Output
Load Value Added Tables
Performance Metric Analysis
Add flight info, VFR, & adjust Taxi Times
Adaptation
Link Flights
Itinerary File (revised)
Trajectories File
Airframes File (revised)
Visualization
Annualization
CRCT TM
ASQP
Airframes File
Itinerary File (adjusted)
System-wide Analysis Framework
© 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.F066-B08-059
Analysis and Visualization Tools
© 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.F066-B08-059
Recent Applications
• Benefits assessment
– Data Communications Segment 1
– NextGen Implementation Plan
• Problem identification
– Future Airport Capacity Task (FACT)
– Future Airspace Capacity and Efficiency Study (FACES)
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© 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.F066-B08-059
Model Purpose
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To estimate the aggregate and network effects of changes to the NAS
• Delay and load are primary metrics of interest• By phase of flight• By element, e.g., airport, sector, system
• Because output is as-flown trajectories, other effects could be interpreted, e.g., fuel burn
• Demand: volume, fleet mix• Capacity: airport, TRACON, sector, fixes and airways• Structure: airspace and routes• Traffic management
• Time- vs. distance-based• First-come first-served vs. other priority policies
© 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.F066-B08-059
systemwideModeler
• Latest in NASPAC/DPAT/MLM lineage
– Designed and first released in 2006
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FlightsTransits
Trajectories
BackgroundAirportsSectors
etc.
Resources(includingcapacities)
OutputFlight events
Resource eventsSimulation engine
• Written in SLX, a PC-based simulation language
• Active, disciplined CAASD development effort
• ~30k lines of code
• Scenario runs in 5-15 minutes
© 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.F066-B08-059
Model Approach
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Flights plansplans
plans
Resources
plansplans
constraints
• Start with initial 4D trajectories (from external trajectory model)
• Change plans to respect constraints
• Characterize “use” by flights
• Monitor flight plans/progress
• Regulate resource “condition”, e.g., occupancy
• Issue constraints to individual flights
Flights’ only response to constraintsis to delay passage of points.
(Cancellations, re-routing, and altitude changes are responses being researched.)
A resource only constrains a flightonce it enters a planning horizon.
© 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.F066-B08-059
AirportTactical Separation
frontier of feasible throughputhourlyarrivals
hourlydepartures
Sensitive to:• runway layout and use• standard procedures• separation rules and minima• variability and buffers• fleet mix• aircraft performance
Arrivals
Departures
t-x tready time
Arrivals
• Spacing enforced to maintain arrival priority rate
Departures
• Spacing enforced to maintain feasible throughput over user-specified period
. . .
Capacities scheduled by:• weather• winds• ceiling• configuration selection rules
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© 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.F066-B08-059
AirportDemand Management
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dpts
arrs
A A A A A A A A AA A
D D DD D DDD
AAR
ADR
Airport Demand ManagerAnticipates demand
Picks operating points
Publishes rates
Merging and SpacingSpreads delay
Enforcement Mechanisms
Ground/Departure Gateways
or
Anticipate landing/takeoff times
AAR/ADR
Delay pushback
Arrival GatewayDelays arrival TRACON entry
© 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.F066-B08-059
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SectorOccupancy Limited
A
B
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
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• Capacities typically MAP value or some transformation
– May change on schedule
• Airspace assigned to sectors may also change on schedule
• Sector entries are delayed
• Uses several “services” available to resources
– Avoids cycling
– Relieves resource developers of several burdens
– Allows developers to focus on characterizing use and anticipating conditions
© 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.F066-B08-059
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SectorWorkload Limited
As flight approaches sector, its nature and activity in the sector is evaluated• Commercial flight? GA? Military? Equipage?• Previous/next sectors?• Transitioning altitude?• Requires spacing for arrival airport?• Involved in aircraft-aircraft conflict?
Modeled workload distributed over transit of flight• Handoff and coordination tasks• Monitoring and spacing• Conflict detection and resolution• Delay absorption
flight workload
tEntry Exit
sector workload
t
delayed entry
thresholdFlight’s entry delayed until addition of modeled workloadto sector’s anticipated workload acceptable• 15-minute moving sum of workload is governed
tEntry Exit
When resource informed of changes to plan, it updates workload as appropriate• For example, delayed exit causes additional work
changenotification
© 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.F066-B08-059
Other Resources
• Arrival and departure TRACON
• Miles-in-trail restrictions
• Ground Delay Programs/Ground Stops
• Airframes
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© 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved.F066-B08-059
Near-Term Work
• Improved ground gateway
• More strategic traffic management for en route congestion
• Departure fix congestion
• Dynamic assignment of airframes and cancellations
• Arrival TRACON
– Better representation of routes
– Reduced acceptance in presence of load and delay
– Reduced variability of final approach fix delivery
• Demand scenario generation
– To address variability in demand and airport configurations
– To improve realism in airframe utilization, routes, fleet mix/equipage
• Re-routing to avoid weather and congestion
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