1

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data P = Preliminary data

Thai Export to Major Destinations

60708090

100110120130140

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Asian Export Performance

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)Ex.gold

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

EUJapan*

China

ASEAN5

ME

TH ex.Gold

TW

ID ex.Oil & Gas

SGMY

CN

KR

* ex. aircraft, other vehicles and other manufacturing goods

US

Jun 2018 = 21.8 Bn USDEx. Gold = 21.3 Bn USD

May 2018 = 22.3 Bn USDEx. Gold = 21.9 Bn USD

Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.

%YoYShare 2017P 2017P

2017P 2018P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May Jun%MoM

sa

Agriculture 7.6 20.2 20.0 20.4 3.0 -1.6 7.8 -0.3 6.7 5.7Fishery 0.9 4.1 5.3 3.1 -1.4 9.3 -9.7 -9.4 -13.2 -0.1Manufacturing 87.5 10.2 9.0 11.4 12.4 14.1 10.7 11.6 8.6 -0.5

Agro-manufacturing Products

12.3 12.6 10.4 14.7 7.4 6.5 8.4 7.4 9.1 3.9

Electronics 15.0 14.0 13.2 14.8 12.4 13.6 11.3 6.4 12.9 5.3Electrical Appliances 5.6 6.2 6.7 5.6 6.6 9.6 3.6 4.6 4.7 2.1Automotive 15.0 6.3 2.4 10.0 15.1 15.8 14.4 19.6 7.0 -10.1

Machinery & Equipment 8.7 7.2 7.6 6.7 8.7 9.7 7.7 5.6 6.3 -2.2

Petroleum Related 11.5 19.0 18.4 19.6 26.4 26.2 26.5 29.7 23.9 -3.5Total (BOP basis) 100.0 9.8 7.3 12.2 11.1 9.9 12.3 13.1 10.0 -0.1

Ex. Gold - 10.9 9.5 12.2 11.5 11.2 11.9 12.2 10.0 -0.4

Ex. Gold+Petroleum related

- 9.9 8.5 11.2 9.6 9.3 9.9 9.8 8.2 0.1

Export Value

2

Sources: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Calculated by Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data Note: ( ) denotes share in total tourist arrivals in 2017

20172017 2018

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunP

No. of tourists (’000)

35,381 17,324 18,058 19,482 10,609 8,873 2,755 3,025

%YoY 8.8 4.9 12.8 12.5 15.4 9.1 6.4 11.6

%QoQsa, %MoMsa - - - - 5.7 1.4 -1.5 7.7

Index sa (Jan 2014 = 100) Tourists Classified by Nationality

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Total China (share 28%)Malaysia (share 9%) Asia ex. CN MY (share 30%)Europe ex. Russia (share 15%) Russia (share 4%)

3

Sources: The Nielsen Company, Revenue Department, Department of Tourism, Ministry of Energy, NSO, OAE P = Preliminary E = Estimated

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Semi-durable Index sa,3mmaDurable Index sa, 3mmaDurable Index sa

Jan 2014 = 100

Private Consumption Indicators

%YoY 20172017 2018

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2P May JunP %MoM sa

Non-durable index 0.5 0.1 0.9 0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.2 -0.8 0.3

Semi-durable index 0.7 0.6 0.8 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.4 2.3 0.8

Durable index 8.0 6.8 9.0 8.4 6.3 10.4 9.5 10.7 1.2

Service index 7.1 5.6 8.5 7.1 7.2 7.0E 6.7 7.0E 0.9E

(less) Net tourist spending 13.5 10.7 16.3 7.9 10.6 4.5 1.5 7.7 5.0

PCI 2.6 1.8 3.3 3.6 2.9 4.2 4.5 3.4 0.0

* Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector

Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel Index

Durable and Semi-durable Indices

Jan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

708090

100110120130140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Service Index sa, 3mmaNon-resident spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index

90

100

110

120

130

140

859095

100105110115120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Nielsen’s FMCG Index sa, 3mmaFuel Index, saFuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

4

IndexJan 2014 = 100

P = Preliminary Data

Farm Income Real Income

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Farm Income sa

Farm Income sa, 3mma

Transfer of salary through Financial Institutions (Baht/person)*

Total Non-Farm Income sa, 3mma

Note : * 1) Calculated from retail funds transfer transactions obtained from the National ITMX and BOT’s payment systems data as the value of total salary tranfered divided by volume of salary transfer.2) Apr-Jun 2018 figures were estimated by the BOT

(%YoY) 20172017 2018

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May Jun

Nominal farm incomeP 2.8 15.7 -7.8 1.7 -2.3 6.2 8.0 4.3

Agricultural productionP 5.7 10.8 2.0 12.0 11.3 12.9 13.5 8.2

Agricultural price -2.8 4.4 -9.6 -9.2 -12.3 -5.9 -4.8 -3.6

Contribution to Growth: Farm Income

4.3

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan2017

Apr Jul2017

Oct Jan2018

Apr

Paddy rice Sugarcane CassavaRubber Fruit Oil palmLivestock Shrimp OthersTotal Farm Income

%YoY

Sources: UTCC, NSO, OAE, National ITMX Bulk Payment, calculated by BOT

60

70

80

90

100

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)

Jun 18 = 82.2

Average 5 years = 76.0

5

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

70

85

100

115

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)

Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2011)P = Preliminary data

Note: Calculated and Classified by the BOT

MPI Classified by Export Share

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production

* The latest month was estimated by the BOT

(%YoY)Share2011 2017

2017 2018

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunP %MoMsa

Food & Beverages 20.2 3.6 2.2 5.1 2.8 2.3 3.4 1.3 4.7 2.5Automotive 16.9 3.6 -3.3 10.8 10.6 11.3 10.0 11.4 10.1 0.0- Passenger Cars 3.4 1.8 1.2 2.4 6.4 7.7 5.1 2.2 2.7 -3.1

- Commercial Vehicles 6.3 1.1 -7.8 10.8 12.3 12.4 12.2 15.1 13.5 2.1

- Engine 6.3 7.0 -3.5 18.8 14.8 14.3 15.3 18.7 16.1 0.2Rubbers & Plastics 10.0 7.1 0.8 13.8 -2.5 -1.7 -3.4 -7.9 2.7 4.8Chemicals 8.2 2.4 -0.8 5.7 8.4 8.9 8.0 7.8 7.3 -2.0IC & Semiconductors 7.5 5.5 8.7 2.5 3.3 2.7 3.8 4.3 4.3 1.1Textiles & Apparels 5.5 -5.1 -2.9 -7.4 -6.2 -5.7 -6.8 -9.6 -7.0 1.3

Cement & Construction 4.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 2.9 1.4 4.5 6.9 7.1 4.7

Electrical Appliances 4.1 -6.9 -4.6 -9.7 -0.2 0.8 -1.2 -5.8 7.1 4.6HDD 3.2 14.0 14.2 13.9 13.2 10.2 16.3 18.9 11.7 2.5Petroleum 3.1 5.0 3.7 6.1 11.7 20.6 3.9 2.7 2.7 1.7

Others 16.5 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 0.3 -0.7 0.5

MPI 100.0 2.5 0.5 4.7 3.8 4.1 3.5 2.9 4.7 -

MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod

100.0 - 0.8 3.4 0.5 0.2 0.6 1.7 1.5 -

Capacity Utilization (SA)

- 67.1 66.1 68.1 68.7 68.2 69.1 69.5 70.0 -

70

85

100

115

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan 2018

Export<30%30%<Export<60%Export>60%

6

Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET, Business Sentiment Survey by BOT, NSO, OIE, calculated by BOT P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Note: Business credits and debt refer to change in outstanding (par); equity refers to new issuance at par value.

Sources of Corporate Financing Bn baht

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan-

17Fe

b-17

Mar

-17

Apr-1

7M

ay-1

7Ju

n-17

Jul-1

7Au

g-17

Sep-

17Oc

t-17

Nov-

17De

c-17

Jan-

18Fe

b-18

Mar

-18

Apr-1

8M

ay-1

8Ju

n-18

Business Credits (SA) EquityDebt 3MMA

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

70

80

90

100

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)

Investment in Machinery and Equipment Investment in Construction 1,000 m2

9mmaIndex sa

(Jan 2014=100) Index sa

(Jan 2014 = 100)

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Real Imports of Capital GoodsDomestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment

% YoY 20172017 2018

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2P May JunP %MoMsa

Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -0.8 -1.9 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.3E 1.6 -2.0E -3.2E

Construction Materials Index -0.9 -1.8 0.0 -0.7 -1.8 0.5 3.6 -0.8 -0.6

Real Imports of Capital Goods 3.2 2.0 4.3 4.7 2.8 6.6 1.5 8.8 -0.1

Real Domestic Machinery Sales 1.0 0.9 1.2 5.3 3.1 7.6E 4.8 5.5E 3.0E

Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment 5.7 2.8 9.0 4.9 3.0 6.8 4.4 5.3 -2.6

PII 1.6 0.8 2.3 3.3 2.0 4.6 2.6 4.0 0.4

Capacity Utilization (SA) 67.1 66.1 68.1 68.7 68.2 69.1 69.5 70.0 -

Private Investment Indicators

7

Sources: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office

Billion bahtCentral Government Current Expenditure

(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)Billion baht

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2015-17 FY2017 FY2018

010203040506070

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2015-17 FY2017 FY2018Note: P = Preliminary data

1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments

Fiscal Position (Cash basis)

Billion Baht FY2016FY2017FY2017P FY2018P

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 May Jun

Revenue 2,412 2,354 697 617 545 537 760 203 347

(%YoY) (9.3) (-2.4) (-6.9) (2.3) (-0.8) (9.5) (9.0) (-6.4) (8.5)

Expenditure1/ 2,736 2,795 641 593 945 599 731 185 299

(%YoY) (9.0) (2.2) (-1.3) (7.5) (2.2) (-5.8) (14.0) (-7.2) (33.1)

Budgetary B/L -324 -441 56 24 -400 -62 30 18 47Non-Budgetary B/L

-58 35 19 43 -31 21 51 -1 38

Cash B/L (CG) -382 -406 76 68 -431 -41 81 16 85

Net Financing 397 489 68 171 88 123 83 23 25

Treasury B/L 441 524 285 524 181 263 427 317 427

Jun0.3%

Jun7.1%

8

Import Value IndexIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

* Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in “others” in the accompanying table.

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Total imports Consumer goodsRaw materials ex. fuel* FuelCapital goods

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data P = Preliminary data

Jun 2018 = 18.9 Bn USDEx. Gold = 18.3 Bn USD

May 2018 = 19.6 Bn USDEx. Gold = 18.9 Bn USD

%YoYShare 2017P 2017P

2017P 2018P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May Jun%MoM

sa

Consumer 10.3 7.5 4.7 10.2 16.4 20.3 12.7 9.2 7.5 -0.1

Raw material&Intermediate

53.3 15.7 16.9 14.5 20.4 19.5 21.2 14.6 20.4 1.1

o/w Fuel 13.1 26.1 27.6 24.7 40.6 29.6 51.6 26.2 62.5 1.9

o/w Raw mat&Interm ex. Fuel

40.2 12.6 14.0 11.4 14.0 16.2 12.0 10.8 9.2 0.8

Capital 25.4 8.5 10.0 7.1 5.4 6.7 4.2 5.7 4.7 0.5

Others 11.1 27.9 22.0 32.9 15.1 25.9 4.3 13.3 -16.9 -8.9

Total (BOP basis) 100.0 13.2 13.4 12.9 17.3 17.9 16.8 12.7 12.9 0.1

Ex. Gold - 10.7 11.0 10.5 17.8 17.7 17.9 12.5 16.1 1.1

Ex. Gold&Fuel - 8.3 8.5 8.2 13.8 15.5 12.2 10.0 9.1 0.9

Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.

Import Value

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Value Quantity Price

9

Labor Market Indicators EmploymentThousand persons

sa, 3mmaThousand persons

sa, 3mma

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Thou

sand

s

Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa)Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS)Agriculture (sa) (RHS)

Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT

Sources: NSO and Ministry of Commerce calculated by BOT

Core inflation contributionHeadline inflation contribution%YoY %YoY

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Raw food (15.69%)

Energy (11.75%)

Core (72.56%)Jun

1.38%

Jun0.83%

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)

% 20172017 2018

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May Jun

Unemployment rate (sa)

1.2 1.2 1.2 1.21.2

(1.2)1.1

(1.0)1.0

(0.9)1.1

(1.1)

Employed persons (%YoY)

-0.6 -0.1 -1.1 0.4 -0.2 0.9 2.3 0.1

Underemployment rate

0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6

10

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Balance of Payments

Billion USD 2017P2017P 2018P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunE

Trade Balance 34.2 16.6 17.6 12.4 6.6 5.8 2.7 2.9

Exports (f.o.b.) 235.3 112.3 122.9 124.8 61.8 63.0 22.3 21.8

%YoY 9.8 7.3 12.2 11.1 9.9 12.3 13.1 10.0

Imports (f.o.b.) 201.1 95.8 105.3 112.4 55.2 57.2 19.6 18.9

%YoY 13.2 13.4 12.9 17.3 17.9 16.8 12.7 12.9Net Services, Income & Transfers

16.9 7.7 9.2 8.9 8.3 0.6 -1.7 1.2

Current Account 51.1 24.2 26.8 21.4 15.0 6.4 1.0 4.1Capital and Financial Account

-19.2 -12.8 -6.5 -10.5 -3.4 -7.1 0.1 -7.0

Overall Balance 26.0 10.2 15.8 7.6 12.0 -4.3 0.1 -5.3

11

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Net Financial Flows

Millions of USD 2017P 2017P 2018P

H1 H2 H1 Q1 Q2 May JunE

1. Assets -36,039 -20,273-15,766 -8,454 -5,003 -3,450 490 -4,960TDI -20,292 -9,016 -11,276 -7,088 -4,753 -2,335 -850 -990

- Equity -9,582 -2,788 -6,794 -2,366 -1,821 -545 -424 -51Thai Portfolio investment -11,968 -6,493 -5,475 2 -1,363 1,364 609 788

- Equity security investment -7,784 -3,656 -4,128 -3,604 -2,925 -679 351 -822- Debt security investment -4,184 -2,837 -1,347 3,606 1,563 2,043 259 1,610

Loans -1,007 -567 -440 -1,186 -28 -1,158 -35 -637Other Investments -2,771 -4,196 1,425 -181 1,140 -1,321 765 -4,122

- Trade credits -5,093 -798 -4,295 -2,357 -1,501 -856 -643 -5212. Liabilities 16,933 7,516 9,417 -1,399 2,230 -3,628 -425 -2,035FDI 7,944 3,999 3,945 7,495 4,601 2,894 1,391 845

- Equity 4,827 1,891 2,935 3,128 1,449 1,679 508 612Foreign Portfolio investment 9,401 3,808 5,593 -6,053 -884 -5,169 -1,853 -1,949

- Equity security investment 598 630 -32 -4,628 -696 -3,932 -1,671 -1,621- Debt security investment 8,802 3,178 5,624 -1,426 -188 -1,237 -182 -327

Loans 5,106 1,446 3,659 -1,624 -1,707 83 -113 -407Other Investments -5,518 -1,738 -3,780 -1,217 219 -1,436 149 -525

- Trade credits -1,750 -71 -1,679 -330 92 -422 85 -76Total Financial Flows (1+2) -19,106 -12,757 -6,349 -9,853 -2,774 -7,079 65 -6,995

12

Jun105.4

Jul110.9

Jul99.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Q120

18Q2

2018

Apr-1

8M

ay-1

8Ju

n-18

Reserves/Short-term DebtTimes

Jun 2018E

3.4

-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%

THB CNY KRW IDR SGD JPY PHP TWD MYR INR GBP EUR

end of Jun 2018 compared to end of May 2018

20 Jul 2018 compared to end of Jun 2018

Sources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and Bloomberg

Exchange Rate Movement

(Positive values denote currency appreciation compared to USD)

% p.a.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

30-D

ec-1

522

-Jan-

1612

-Feb

-16

7-M

ar-1

628

-Mar

-16

22-A

pr-1

618

-May

-16

9-Ju

n-16

30-Ju

n-16

26-Ju

l-16

17-A

ug-1

67-

Sep-

1628

-Sep

-16

19-O

ct-1

610

-Nov

-16

1-De

c-16

26-D

ec-1

618

-Jan-

178-

Feb-

172-

Mar

-17

23-M

ar-1

718

-Apr

-17

11-M

ay-1

71-

Jun-

1722

-Jun-

1714

-Jul-1

77-

Aug-

1729

-Aug

-17

19-S

ep-1

710

-Oct

-17

3-No

v-17

24-N

ov-1

719

-Dec

-17

11-Ja

n-18

1-Fe

b-18

22-F

eb-1

816

-Mar

-18

9-Ap

r-18

3-M

ay-1

824

-May

-18

15-Ju

n-18

6-Ju

l-18

Latest data 20 Jul 2018

Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD)

Index (Jan 2014 = 100)

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

Jul

NEER REER USDTHB

Jul 2018(Average data until 20 Jul)THB Appreciation