Exponential Exponential ModelsModels

By: Sam Schuesler & Cynthia Tena

POLIOPOLIO

Polio(virus)

Lies in theintestine, & the nervoussystem in the body.

It likes to Move to the

brain andSpinal cord, Where It can

cause paralysis.

It dislikes the vaccine

developed in 1954 that has

tamed itthroughout most

Of the world.

PoliomyelitisPoliomyelitis

About PolioAbout Polio

• A large outbreak in India accounted for most of the increase.

• India is one of seven countries where the disease is still endemic.

• But there has been some success in the fight against polio with Ethiopia, Sudan and Angola, where the virus had been endemic, declared polio-free in 2002.

• Access to children in Somalia and Afghanistan for vaccination has also improved.

• The World Health Organization hopes to completely wipe out polio by 2005.

PoliovirusPoliovirus

Poliomyelitis PathogenesisPoliomyelitis Pathogenesis

VaccineVaccine

!Polio!!Polio!

Exponential ModelExponential Model

• A quantity grows exponentially when its increase is proportional to what is already there.

• Our objective in this project was to provide evidence of the spread of poliomyelitis, and how fast it’s growth was. A comparison could be made with the present spread of meningitis.

Everyday Two More People Are Infected

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

0 5 10 15 20

Day

Nu

mb

er

Two people each day

Everday Five More People Are Infected

0

5000000000

10000000000

15000000000

20000000000

25000000000

30000000000

35000000000

0 5 10 15 20

Day

Nu

mb

er

Five people each day

Everyday More People are Infected

-100000000

100000000

300000000

500000000

700000000

900000000

1100000000

1300000000

1500000000

0 5 10 15 20

Days

Num

ber Two each day

Three each day

Four each day

Five each day

TuberculosisTuberculosis

• Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease caused by Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease caused by bacteria calledbacteria called Mycobacterium tuberculosis, a bacteria that cause latent TB infection a bacteria that cause latent TB infection and active TB disease and active TB disease

A Person with Latent TB Infection

A Person with Active TB Disease

Has no symptoms Does not feel sick Cannot spread TB to others Usually has a positive skin test or

QuantiFERON-TB® Gold test Has a normal chest x-ray and sputum

test

Has symptoms that may include: a bad cough that lasts longer than

2 weeks pain in the chest coughing up blood or sputum weakness or fatigue weight loss no appetite chills fever sweating at night

May spread TB to others Usually has a positive skin test or

QuantiFERON®-TB Gold test May have an abnormal chest x-ray, or

positive sputum smear or culture

The Difference Between Latent TB The Difference Between Latent TB Infection and Infection and

Active TB DiseaseActive TB Disease

Symptoms of TBSymptoms of TB• Symptoms of TB depend on where in the body the TB Symptoms of TB depend on where in the body the TB

bacteria are growing. TB bacteria usually grow in the lungs. bacteria are growing. TB bacteria usually grow in the lungs. TB in the lungs may cause symptoms such as:TB in the lungs may cause symptoms such as:

• a bad cough that lasts longer than 2 weeks a bad cough that lasts longer than 2 weeks • pain in the chest pain in the chest • coughing up blood or sputum (phlegm from deep inside the coughing up blood or sputum (phlegm from deep inside the

lungs) lungs) • Other symptoms of active TB disease areOther symptoms of active TB disease are• weakness or fatigue weakness or fatigue • weight loss weight loss • no appetite no appetite • chills chills • fever fever • sweating at night sweating at night

Cures for TBCures for TB• With appropriate antibiotic With appropriate antibiotic

treatment, TB can be cured in treatment, TB can be cured in more than nine out of ten more than nine out of ten patients.patients.

• Successful treatment of TB Successful treatment of TB depends on close cooperation depends on close cooperation between the patient and doctor between the patient and doctor and other health care workers. and other health care workers. Treatment usually combines Treatment usually combines several different antibiotic drugs several different antibiotic drugs which are given for at least six which are given for at least six months, sometimes for as long as months, sometimes for as long as 12 months.12 months.

• Patients must take their medicine Patients must take their medicine on time every day for the 6 to 12 on time every day for the 6 to 12 months. Some TB patients stop months. Some TB patients stop taking their prescribed medicines taking their prescribed medicines because they may feel better after because they may feel better after only a couple of weeks of only a couple of weeks of treatment. Another reason they treatment. Another reason they may stop taking their medicine is may stop taking their medicine is because TB drugs can have because TB drugs can have unpleasant side effectsunpleasant side effects

 Total number of new cases of Total number of new cases of tuberculosis in white non-tuberculosis in white non-

Hispanics, blacks, and Hispanics in Hispanics, blacks, and Hispanics in

the United States, 1980–2010.the United States, 1980–2010.

Projected quartiles of Projected quartiles of tuberculosis case rates per tuberculosis case rates per

100,000 by state, 2010100,000 by state, 2010

HIV/AIDSHIV/AIDS

• The Red Ribbon is a The Red Ribbon is a symbol that shows the symbol that shows the caring and support in caring and support in the world.the world.

• HIV-Human HIV-Human Immunodeficiency Immunodeficiency Virus is the virus that Virus is the virus that causes AIDScauses AIDS

• AIDS was first AIDS was first identified as a disease identified as a disease in America in 1981.in America in 1981.

Just Some Numbers To Crunch

People Living With HI V/AI DS

05

101520253035

Country

Num

ber

people living with hiv/ aids

People Newly Infected

0

1

2

3

4

africa oceania northamerica

caribbean latinamerica

global total

Country

Num

ber

people newly infected

Here are some more

Deaths

0123456

Country

Num

ber

deaths

More…

Estimated HI V Diagnosis

12500

14500

16500

18500

20500

2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

under 34

above 35

Estimated AIDS Diagnosis

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

1,998 2,000 2,002 2,004

Year

Num

ber

under 34

above 35

Deaths By AIDS

1000

6000

11000

16000

1,999 2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003

Year

Num

ber

under 34

above 35

Last one!

!Special Thanks!!Special Thanks!

•To Char and Jim Morrow To Char and Jim Morrow for their guidencefor their guidence

•To Mora for all her helpTo Mora for all her help•To Shirley who assisted us To Shirley who assisted us

technologytechnology•Also to Anusha our RA for Also to Anusha our RA for

her on going persistanceher on going persistance