SONORANINSTITUTE.ORG

Exploratory Scenario PlanningInteractive Demo

Harold Thomas, Program Manager

Sonoran Institute

hthomas@sonoraninstitute.org

Brandon Ruiz, Program Associate

Sonoran Institute

bruiz@sonoraninstitute.org

Jeremy Stapleton, Program Director

Sonoran Institute

jstapleton@sonoraninstitute.org

Jim Holway, Director

Babbitt Center for Land and Water Policy

jholway@lincolninst.org

Mission

Connect people/communities and natural

resources

Nexus of community, commerce, and conservation

Civil dialogue and collaboration

Sonoran Institute

Resilient Communities Starter Kit

• Adapting to Climate Change

Growing Water Smart

• Integrating water and land use planning

Exploratory Scenario Planning

• Preparing for an uncertain future

Resilient Communities and Watersheds

Tools, Training and

Technical Assistance

XSP is…

IS about

BEING PREPAREDfor whatever happens in the future

NOT envisioning what we WANT to

happen or PREDICTING what will happen in the future…

XSP Explores a Broader Range of Future Possibility

Source: Modified from Global Business Network

NowEnvisions Multiple Possible Futures…

UNCERTAIN OUTCOMES Can Be Game Changers

…From What We

Don’t Know

“Cone of Uncertainty”

Source: Modified from Denver Water/Tucson Water

C

A

B

D

NOW

Future

Tipping/Pivot/Adaptation Points

Longer-Term

Contingent/Adaptive

Actions

Near-Term

Robust/

Low-Regret

Actions

2040

XSP Workshop Process

Set time horizon, Interview / Survey, Develop Focal Question

1 Brainstorm

Driving Forces2 Rank Driving

Forces3

Identify Most

Critical

Uncertainties

4

Identify

Robust

Actions

9

Create

Scenario

Matrices

5Develop

Scenario

Narratives

6

Explore the

Implications of

Each Future

7 Create a Path

of Action 8

Workshop #1

Workshop #2

Focal ? Mtg.

Focal Question

How can changes in

urban form and

landscaping practices for

new growth and

redevelopment assist in

meeting future urban water demand along the

Colorado Front Range?

Colorado Water and Growth Dialogue

The Process

1. Interviewed various stakeholders

2. Split workshop into 2 full days

3. 4 Scenarios

4. 18 Robust Strategies

Brainstorm the Driving Forces

10 Minutes

Master List of Driving Forces1. Housing Affordability

2. Cost of Oil + Gas

3. Access to Outdoors + Recreation

4. Transportation Network / Technology

5. Economic Opportunity / Vibrancy /

Volatility

6. Net Population Growth

7. Flexibility in Working Environment /

Telecommuting

8. Millennial + Senior Housing

Preferences

9. Millennial + Senior Transportation

Preferences

10.Access to Real Estate Financing

(Builder + Buyer)

11.Perceived Strength of Job Market

12.Political Will – Local Control v.

Regionalism

13.Water Availability to Outlying Areas

14.Impact of Distributed Employment

Centers (T.O.D.)

15.Impact of TABOR on Investments

16.Attraction of “Cool” Factor; New

Urbanism

Rank the Driving Forces10 Minutes

Drivers

Certainties• Net Pop. Growth

• Impact of Distributed

Employment Centers + T.O.D

• TABOR’s Legacy and

Repercussions

• Access to the Outdoors and

Recreational Tourism

Uncertainties• Innovative Transportation

Tech.

• Lifestyle Preferences

• Economic Health

Uncertainties Axes

“Scenario Title”• Compact• Volatile

“Scenario Title”• Compact• Vibrant

“Scenario Title”• Dispersed• Vibrant• Characteristic/Condition

“Scenario Title”• Dispersed• Volatile

C

A

D

B

Scenario Matrix: Defining Four Futures

End-States

Lifestyle Preferences Dispersed vs. Compact

Economic Health Vibrant + Robust vs.Exclusive + Volatile

-X +XLIFESTYLE PREFERENCES

-Y

+Y

EC

ON

OM

IC

H

EA

LT

H

Scenarios

Read the Scenarios

10 Minutes

Brainstorm Strategies

10 Minutes

Robust Strategies

Data Management

1. Measure, Monitor +

Message/Market Data + Success

Stories

2. Develop/Track New Metrics:

Water Use/SF Categorized by

Land Use

3. Develop, Track + Compare

Community Water Budgets to

inform policies, programs, plans

and practices.

Incentives/Guidelines/Codes

1. Develop Stewardship Incentives: Tap

Fee Credits, Small Lots, etc.

2. Recommend New Design Guidelines

for government owned buildings,

public spaces and rights of way.

3. Develop municipal landscaping

codes based on best practices.

4. Agricultural Efficiency +

Conservation Measures

5. Adopt "True Cost" Pricing Policy

Robust StrategiesGeneral Planning

1. Find the Sweet Spot – Density + Pt. of

Diminishing Returns

2. Create Water WISE Land Use Plans

3. Nurture a water efficient economy

Founded on efficient industries

4. Adopt a one water approach to water resources planning.

5. Fund implementation of Long-Range

planning strategies via Utility revenues

Education1. "Water in the West Welcome Wagon"

for New + Existing homeowners,

residents, developers, policy makers

Collaboration1. Increase Regional collaboration b/w

Front Range/West Slope communities

+ representatives

2. Eliminate Barriers, Permit + Increase

Water Sharing Agreements

3. Include "Designers" in engineering

departments

4. Partner with trained Water Stewards

| DESIGNERS, builders, maintenance

crews, etc.

Contingency / Adaptation Points

Source: Modified from Denver Water/Tucson Water

C

A

B

D

NOW

Future

Tipping/Pivot/Adaptation Points

Longer-Term

Contingent/Adaptive

Actions

Near-Term

Robust/

Low-Regret

Actions

2040

Thank you!

Questions?

SONORANINSTITUTE.ORG

Harold Thomas, Program Manager

Sonoran Institute

hthomas@sonoraninstitute.org

Brandon Ruiz, Program Associate

Sonoran Institute

bruiz@sonoraninstitute.org

Jeremy Stapleton, Program Director

Sonoran Institute

jstapleton@sonoraninstitute.org

Jim Holway, Director

Babbitt Center for Land and Water Policy

jholway@lincolninst.org

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