Excel TreePlan Sample

document.xls Problem 10:30:54 04/08/2023

DriveTek Problem

DriveTek Research Institute discovers that a computer company wants a new tape

drive for a proposed new computer system. Since the computer company does not

have research people available to develop the new drive, it will subcontract the

development to an independent research firm. The computer company has offered a

fee of $250,000 for the best proposal for developing the new tape drive. The contract

will go to the firm with the best technical plan and the highest reputation for technical

competence.

DriveTek Research Institute wants to enter the competition. Management estimates

a cost of $50,000 to prepare a proposal with a fifty-fifty chance of winning the

contract.

However, DriveTek's engineers are uncertain about how they will develop the tape

drive if they are awarded the contract. Three alternative approaches can be tried.

The first approach is a mechanical method with a cost of $120,000, and the

engineers are certain they can develop a successful model with this approach. A

second approach involves electronic components. The engineers estimate that the

electronic approach will cost only $50,000 to develop a model of the tape drive, but

with only a 50 percent chance of satisfactory results. A third approach uses

magnetic components; this costs $80,000, with a 70 percent chance of success.

DriveTek Research can work on only one approach at a time and has time to try only

two approaches. If it tries either the magnetic or electronic method and the attempt

fails, the second choice must be the mechanical method to guarantee a successful

model.

The management of DriveTek Research needs help in incorporating this information

into a decision to proceed or not.

The tutorial tab has step-by-step instructions for building the DriveTek decision tree.

document.xls Tutorial 10:30:54 04/08/2023

DriveTek Tutorial

1. Activate the Tutorial sheet. From the Edit menu, choose Move or Copy Sheet. In the lower

left corner of the Move or Copy dialog box, check the Create a Copy box, and click OK.

Double-click the Tutorial (2) sheet tab, and rename the sheet DriveTek.

2. From the File menu, choose Open. Navigate to TreePlan.xla, and click OK. Alternatively,

install TreePlan.xla on the hard disk; for instructions, search Excel's help for "installing or

removing an add-in."

3. Select cell B1. From the Tools menu, choose Decision Tree. In the TreePlan...New dialog

box, click the New Tree button. A decision node with two branches appears.

4. Do not type the quotation marks in the following instructions. Select cell E2, and enter

"Prepare proposal." Select cell E4, and enter "-50000." Select cell E7, and enter "Don't prepare

proposal."

5. Select cell G3, or select the triangle graphic object in cell G3. From the Tools menu, choose

Decision Tree. In the TreePlan...Terminal dialog box, select Change to event node, select Two

branches, and click OK. The tree is redrawn.

6. Select cell I2, and enter "Awarded contract." Select cell I4, and enter "+250000." Select cell

I7, and enter "Not awarded contract."

7. Select cell K3, or select the triangle graphic object in cell K3. From the Tools menu, choose

Decision Tree. In the TreePlan...Terminal dialog box, select Change to decision node, select

Three branches, and click OK. The tree is redrawn.

8. Select cell M2, and enter "Use mechanical method." Select cell M4, and enter "-120000."

Select cell M7, and enter "Try electronic method." Select cell M9, and enter "-50000." Select

cell M12, and enter "Try magnetic method." Select cell M14, and enter "-80000."

9. Select cell O8, or select the triangle graphic object in cell O8. From the Tools menu, choose

Decision Tree. In the TreePlan...Terminal dialog box, select Change to event node, select Two

branches, and click OK. The tree is redrawn.

10. Select cell S13, or select the triangle graphic object in cell S13. From the Tools menu,

choose Decision Tree. In the TreePlan...Terminal dialog box, select Change to decision node,

select One branch, and click OK. The tree is redrawn.

11. Select cell U12, and enter "Use mechanical method." Select cell U14, and enter "-120000."

Alternatively, copy M2 and paste into U12, and copy M4 and paste into U14.

12. Select cell O10, or select the circle graphic object in cell O10. From the Tools menu,

document.xls Tutorial 10:30:54 04/08/2023

choose Decision Tree. In the TreePlan...Event dialog box, select Copy subtree, and click OK.

13. Select cell O18, or select the triangle graphic object in cell O18. From the Tools menu,

choose Decision Tree. In the TreePlan...Terminal dialog box, select Paste subtree, and click

OK. The tree is redrawn.

14. Select cell Q7, and enter "Electronic success." Select cell Q12, and enter "Electronic

failure." Select cell Q16, and enter "0.70." Select cell Q17, and enter "Magnetic success."

Select cell Q21, and enter "0.30." Select cell Q22, and enter "Magnetic failure."

15. The complete decision tree is the same as the Base Case sheet, except for formatting. The

rollback CE/EV +$20,000 in cell B27 is the expected value of the optimal strategy. The initial

choice, 1 in cell C26, is to Prepare the proposal; if Awarded the contract, the subsequent

choice, 2 in cell K11, is to Try the electronic $150,000, +$30,000, and -$50,000, with probabilities

0.25, 0.25, and 0.50, respectively.

document.xls Base Case 10:30:54 04/08/2023

DriveTek Base Case

Use mechanical method

+$80,000

-$120,000 +$80,000

0.50

Electronic success

+$150,000

0.50 Try electronic method $0 +$150,000

Awarded contract

2 -$50,000 +$90,000 0.50

+$250,000 +$90,000 Electronic failure Use mechanical method

1 +$30,000

$0 +$30,000 -$120,000 +$30,000

0.70

Magnetic success

Prepare proposal +$120,000

Try magnetic method $0 +$120,000

-$50,000 +$20,000

-$80,000 +$84,000 0.30

Magnetic failure Use mechanical method

1 $0

$0 $0 -$120,000 $0

1 0.50

+$20,000 Not awarded contract

-$50,000

$0 -$50,000

Don't prepare proposal

$0

$0 $0

document.xls Base Case 10:30:54 04/08/2023

ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark

0 TreePlan 0 0 0 D 2 2 3 0 0 0 25 1 1

1 0 12 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 21 1

2 0 0 E 2 4 5 0 0 0 18 5 1

3 0 0 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 5 1

4 2 D 3 6 7 8 0 0 10 9 1

5 2 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 9 1

6 0 4 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 1

7 0 4 E 2 9 10 0 0 0 9 13 1

8 0 4 E 2 11 12 0 0 0 19 13 1

9 7 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 17 1

10 7 D 1 13 0 0 0 0 12 17 1

11 8 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 17 1

12 8 D 1 1 0 0 0 0 22 17 1

13 0 10 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 21 1

document.xls Mechanical Cost Sensitivity Mike Middleton, McLaren, USF1999-03-02

DriveTek


+$80,000

-$120,000 +$80,000

0.50

Electronic success

+$150,000

0.50 Try electronic method $0 +$150,000

Awarded contract

2 -$50,000 +$90,000 0.50

+$250,000 +$90,000 Electronic failure Use mechanical method

1 +$30,000

$0 +$30,000 -$120,000 +$30,000

0.70

Magnetic success

Prepare proposal +$120,000

Try magnetic method $0 +$120,000

-$50,000 +$20,000

-$80,000 +$84,000 0.30


1 $0

$0 $0 -$120,000 $0

1 0.50

+$20,000 Not awarded contract

-$50,000

$0 -$50,000


$0

$0 $0

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

Inputs & Outputs

All decision tree inputs refer to these defined names.

Computed values and outputs depend on the eight inputs.

Inputs Outputs

Proposal Cost -$50,000 EV(Opt Strat) +$20,000

Contract Revenue +$250,000 Initial Choice Prepare

Mechanical Cost -$120,000 Awarded Choice Try Elec

Electronic Cost -$50,000

Magnetic Cost -$80,000

P(Award) 0.50

P(Elec OK) 0.50

P(Mag OK) 0.70

Computed

P(No Award) 0.50

P(Elec Fails) 0.50

P(Mag Fails) 0.30

Strategy Region Table


#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? Try electronic method

Awarded contract

### #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

Prepare proposal

Try magnetic method

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

### #NAME?

#NAME? Not awarded contract

$0 #NAME?


$0 $0


All decision tree inputs refer to these defined names.

Computed values and outputs depend on the eight inputs.

#NAME?

Inputs

Proposal Cost -$50,000

#NAME? Contract Revenue +$250,000

Electronic success Mechanical Cost -$120,000

#NAME? Electronic Cost -$50,000

$0 #NAME? Magnetic Cost -$80,000

P(Award) 0.50

#NAME? P(Elec OK) 0.50

Electronic failure Use mechanical method P(Mag OK) 0.70

### #NAME? Computed

$0 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? P(No Award) #NAME?

P(Elec Fails) #NAME?

#NAME? P(Mag Fails) #NAME?

Magnetic success

#NAME?

$0 #NAME?

#NAME?


### #NAME?

$0 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME?

$0


All decision tree inputs refer to these defined names. Probability of Electronic Success

Computed values and outputs depend on the eight inputs. ### 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40

0.00 ### ### ### ### ###

Outputs 0.10 ### ### ### ### ###

EV(Opt Strat) #NAME? 0.20 ### ### ### ### ###

Initial Choice #NAME? Probability 0.30 ### ### ### ### ###

Awarded Choice #NAME? of 0.40 ### ### ### ### ###

Magnetic 0.50 ### ### ### ### ###

Success 0.60 ### ### ### ### ###

0.70 ### ### ### ### ###

0.80 ### ### ### ### ###

0.90 ### ### ### ### ###

1.00 ### ### ### ### ###


Probability of Electronic Success Probability of Electronic Success

0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30

### ### ### ### ### ### 0.00 Mech Mech Mech Mech



### ### ### ### ### ### Probability 0.30 Mech Mech Mech Mech

### ### ### ### ### ### of 0.40 Mech Mech Mech Mech

### ### ### ### ### ### Magnetic 0.50 Mech Mech Mech Mech

### ### ### ### ### ### Success 0.60 Mech Mech Mech Mech

### ### ### ### ### ### 0.70 Mag Mag Mag Mag

### ### ### ### ### ### 0.80 Mag Mag Mag Mag

### ### ### ### ### ### 0.90 Mag Mag Mag Mag

### ### ### ### ### ### 1.00 Mag Mag Mag Mag

Copy columns, Paste Special | Values

Copy columns, Paste Special | Formats

Borders


Probability of Electronic Success

0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00

Mech Elec Elec Elec Elec Elec Elec







Mag Elec Elec Elec Elec Elec Elec

Mag Mag Elec Elec Elec Elec Elec

Mag Mag Mag Elec Elec Elec Elec

Mag Mag Mag Mag Elec Elec Elec

Copy columns, Paste Special | Values

Copy columns, Paste Special | Formats


ID Name Value Prob

0 TreePlan 0 0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4

5

6 0

7 0

8 0

9

10

11


12

13 0


Pred Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col

0 D 2 2 3 0 0 0 25 1

12 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 21

0 E 2 4 5 0 0 0 18 5

0 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 5

2 D 3 6 7 8 0 0 10 9

2 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 9

4 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13

4 E 2 9 10 0 0 0 9 13

4 E 2 11 12 0 0 0 19 13

7 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 17

7 D 1 13 0 0 0 0 12 17

8 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 17


8 D 1 1 0 0 0 0 22 17

10 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 21


Mark

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1


1

1

Risk Attitude


#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME? Try electronic method

Awarded contract

### #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME?

Prepare proposal

Try magnetic method

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME?

### #NAME?

#NAME? Not awarded contract

#NAME?

$0 #NAME?

#NAME?


$0 $0

#NAME?

Risk Attitude

Outputs and computed values depend on original eight inputs and RT.

Low and High affect A and B for scaling the utility function.

#NAME?

Inputs

Proposal Cost -$50,000

#NAME? Contract Revenue +$250,000

Electronic success Mechanical Cost -$120,000

#NAME? Electronic Cost -$50,000

$0 #NAME? Magnetic Cost -$80,000

#NAME? P(Award) 0.50

#NAME? P(Elec OK) 0.50

Electronic failure Use mechanical method P(Mag OK) 0.70

### #NAME? Computed

$0 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? P(No Award) 0.50

#NAME? #NAME? P(Elec Fails) 0.50

#NAME? P(Mag Fails) 0.30

Magnetic success

#NAME?

$0 #NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?


### #NAME?

$0 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME?

#NAME?

$0

Risk Attitude

Outputs and computed values depend on original eight inputs and RT. Value Utility

Low and High affect A and B for scaling the utility function. -$50,000 #NAME?

-$45,000 #NAME?

Outputs -$40,000 #NAME?

CE(Opt Strat) #NAME? -$35,000 #NAME?

Initial Choice #NAME? -$30,000 #NAME?

Awarded Choice #NAME? -$25,000 #NAME?

-$20,000 #NAME?

Exponential Utility Inputs -$15,000 #NAME?

RT +$150,000 -$10,000 #NAME?

Low -$50,000 U(Low) = 0 -$5,000 #NAME?

High +$150,000 U(High) = 1 $0 #NAME?

Computed +$5,000 #NAME?

A #NAME? +$10,000 #NAME?

B #NAME? +$15,000 #NAME?

+$20,000 #NAME?

+$25,000 #NAME?

+$30,000 #NAME?

+$35,000 #NAME?

+$40,000 #NAME?

+$45,000 #NAME?

+$50,000 #NAME?

+$55,000 #NAME?

+$60,000 #NAME?

+$65,000 #NAME?

+$70,000 #NAME?

+$75,000 #NAME?

+$80,000 #NAME?

+$85,000 #NAME?

+$90,000 #NAME?

+$95,000 #NAME?

+$100,000 #NAME?

+$105,000 #NAME?

+$110,000 #NAME?

+$115,000 #NAME?

+$120,000 #NAME?

+$125,000 #NAME?

+$130,000 #NAME?

+$135,000 #NAME?

+$140,000 #NAME?

+$145,000 #NAME?

+$150,000 #NAME?

-$50,000 $0 +$50,000 +$100,000 +$150,000

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Monetary Value or Certainty Equivalent

Uti

lity

or

Ex

pe

cte

d U

tili

ty

Risk Attitude

-$50,000 $0 +$50,000 +$100,000 +$150,000

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Monetary Value or Certainty Equivalent

Uti

lity

or

Ex

pe

cte

d U

tili

ty

Risk Attitude

ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind

0 TreePlan 0 0 0 D

1 0 12 T

2 0 0 E

3 0 0 T

4 2 D

5 2 T

6 0 4 T

7 0 4 E

8 0 4 E

9 7 T

10 7 D

11 8 T

Risk Attitude

12 8 D

13 0 10 T

Risk Attitude

NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark

2 2 3 0 0 0 25 1 1

0 0 0 0 0 0 22 21 1

2 4 5 0 0 0 18 5 1

0 0 0 0 0 0 32 5 1

3 6 7 8 0 0 10 9 1

0 0 0 0 0 0 27 9 1

0 0 0 0 0 0 2 13 1

2 9 10 0 0 0 9 13 1

2 11 12 0 0 0 19 13 1

0 0 0 0 0 0 7 17 1

1 13 0 0 0 0 12 17 1

0 0 0 0 0 0 17 17 1

Risk Attitude

1 1 0 0 0 0 22 17 1

0 0 0 0 0 0 12 21 1

TreePlan Help

TreePlan for Excel (Unregistered) 1.61

Decision Tree SoftwareAdd-In for Microsoft Excel 4, 5, 7,and 97for Windows and Macintosh

TreePlan helps you build and modify decision tree diagramsin Excel worksheets. TreePlan automatically puts formulason your worksheet for evaluating these trees.

To build a new decision tree, first create a new worksheet. Then start TreePlan in one of two ways:

(1) Choose Decision Tree... from the Options menu (Excel 4) or the Tools menu (Excel 5, 7, and 97), or(2) Press the shortcut key: Control + t.

When the TreePlan...New dialog box appears, chooseNew Tree. TreePlan builds a tree diagram with an initialdecision node and two branches. The tree diagram beginswith the upper left corner of the diagram near the activecell at the time New... is chosen. TreePlan assigns thename TreeDiagram to the range of the tree diagram andinitially sets Excel's Print_Area equal to TreeDiagram.

To change the structure of the tree diagram, select a node,start TreePlan, and choose commands from a TreePlandialog box. To select a terminal node in Excel 97, selectthe square cell next to the vertical line at the end of aterminal branch.

On the left side of each branch of the tree diagram, there isa name field above the branch line and a partial-cash-flowvalue field below the line. On the left side of eventbranches, there is also a probability field above the namefield. Decision nodes also have a number in them indicating the optimal branch.

On the right side of each branch of the tree diagram, thereis a rollback Expected Value field below the line neareach node. TreePlan automatically puts the rollback EVformula into this cell: maximum of successor EVs at adecision node, and expected value of successor EVs at anevent node.

To the right of the terminal nodes, there is an endpoint value field that sums all of the partial cashflows in the tree.

Internally, TreePlan uses the TreeData range, near cellGV1000, to construct the TreeDiagram.

CAUTION: Do not insert or delete rows or columns in theTreeDiagram or TreeData ranges. Modify the tree diagramonly by using TreePlan's menu options.

TreePlan Help

TREEPLAN...DECISION and TREEPLAN...EVENT dialog boxes

Add branch Adds a single branch after the selected node . (No more than 5 branches are allowed.)

Copy subtree Copies the selected node and all its successors to the TreePlan clipboard.

Insert decision Inserts a decision node and single branch before the selected node.

Insert event Inserts an event node and single branch before the selected node.

Change to decision Changes the selected event node to a decision node and erases the probability fields from the event branches.

Change to event Changes the selected decision node to an event node.

Shorten tree Removes the selected node and its single successor branch.

Change to terminal Changes the selected node to a terminal node. All successor branches are erased.

Remove branch Erases the selected node, the previous branch, and any successor branches and nodes.

TREEPLAN...TERMINAL dialog box

Change to decision node Changes the selected terminal node to a decision node with one to five successor branches.

Change to event node Changes the selected terminal node to an event node with one to five successor branches.

Paste subtree Pastes the subtree onto the selected terminal node from the TreePlan clipboard.

TreePlan Help

Remove previous branch Erases the selected terminal node and the previous branch.

TREEPLAN...SELECT dialog box

Cells To select a set of nonadjacent cells for subsequent formatting, select the appropriate option button. (In large trees, this option may not be available.)

Objects To select all objects, choose Select Special from the Formula menu, and select the Objects option button. (In large trees, this option may not be available.)

Columns To select a set of nonadjacent columns for subsequent formatting, select the appropriate option button.

TREEPLAN...OPTIONS dialog box

Certainty Equivalents The default is to rollback the tree using expected values. If you chose to use exponential utilities, TreePlan will compute utilities and certainty equivalents at each node. For the Maximize option, the rollback formulas are U=A-B*EXP(-X/RT) and X=-LN((A-U)/B)*RT, and for the Minimize option, U=A-B*EXP(X/RT) and X=LN((A-U)/B)*RT.

NOTE: TreePlan uses the name RT to represent the risk tolerance parameter of the exponential utility function; the names A and B determine scaling. If the names A, B, and RT don't exist, they are initially defined as A=1, B=1, and RT=999999999999. The name UseExpUtility is a flag indicating whether to use exponential utilities or expected values.

Decision Node EV/CE Choices The default is to Maximize profits. If you choose to Minimize costs instead, the cash flows are interpreted as costs, and decisions are made by choosing the minimum expected value/CE rather than the maximum. TreePlan uses the name MinimizeCosts as a flag indicating whether to maximize profits or minimize costs.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

TreePlan Help

Sincere thanks to Professor James E. Smith, DukeUniversity, for adding exponential utility and severalother features.

TREEPLAN REGISTRATION

TreePlan is distributed as shareware and may be providedat no charge to the user for evaluation. If you find thisprogram useful and continue to use TreePlan after a 30-dayevaluation period, you must make a registration payment toDecision Support Services. The registration fee will licenseone copy for use on any one computer at any one time.

Upon registering TreePlan, you will be sent by postal mail adisk containing the most recent version of the software anddocumentation. The registered TreePlan package has a30-day money-back guarantee. Registered users will benotified of the next major version and are entitled tounlimited technical support via postal mail, Compuserve71330,3445, or Internet: [email protected].

A site license agreement is required to use TreePlan on acomputer network, and academic pricing is available.Please contact Decision Support Services for details.

An evaluation copy of TreePlan and other information maybe obtained from the Decision Support Services web site:

http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/decision

TREEPLAN REGISTRATION BY CHECK

The registration fee for TreePlan is $29.00 (Californiaresidents, add sales tax) plus $4.00 shipping to U.S. andCanada, $6.00 elsewhere. Make money order or check (inU.S. funds drawn on a U.S. bank) payable to DecisionSupport Services, and mail to:

Decision Support Services Voice/Fax (415) 673-62172105 Buchanan Street, #1 Compuserve 71330,3445San Francisco, CA 94115

TREEPLAN REGISTRATION BY CREDIT CARD

You can order with MC, Visa, Amex, or Discover fromPublic (software) Library by calling 800-2424-PsL or713-524-6394 or by fax to 713-524-6398 or by CompuserveEmail to 71355,470. You can also mail credit card ordersto PsL at P.O. Box 35705, Houston, TX 77235-5705.

The above numbers are for orders only. The author cannot

TreePlan Help

be reached at these PsL phone numbers.

Any questions about the status of the shipment of the order,refunds, registration options, product details, technicalsupport, volume discounts, dealer pricing, site licenses,non-credit card orders, etc., must be directed to 415-673-6217 (Voice/Fax), Compuserve 71330,3445, orDecision Support Services, 2105 Buchanan Street, #1,San Francisco, CA 94115.

To insure that you get the latest version, PsL will notify usthe day of your order, and we will ship the product directlyto you. PsL has assigned item/product #11325 toTreePlan for Excel. The prices are $33 US/Canada and$35 overseas.

TREEPLAN DISTRIBUTION

Please share copies of TreePlan freely with prospectiveusers. You are granted permission to make as manycopies as you wish. Do not distribute copies that havebeen altered.

Disk vendors, bulletin boards, other distributors, andindividuals may distribute TreePlan as long as you clearly explain the shareware concept, the need for users toregister the products they use, and the fact that the price ofyour disks/CD-ROM/service is a copying fee only and doesnot constitute payment for the product.

Please direct questions about volume discounts, dealerpricing, rack vending, book bundling, or other distributionmethods to 415-673-6217 (Voice/Fax), Compuserve71330,3445, or Decision Support Services, 2105 BuchananStreet, #1, San Francisco, CA 94115.

ABOUT SHAREWARE

Shareware is a method of distributing software that givesyou a chance to try software before buying it. If you try a shareware program and continue using it, you are expectedto register. Individual programs differ on the details aboutthe evaluation period, registration fee, and support.

Copyright laws apply to both shareware and commercialsoftware, and the copyright holder may choose to retain all rights. The only meaningful difference between sharewareand commercial software is the method of distribution. Shareware authors specifically grant the rights to copy anddistribute the software and documentation, either to all users and by all methods, or with some restrictions.

TreePlan Help

You should try to find software that suits your needs andbudget, whether it's commercial or shareware. Both types have good programs and bad, but shareware makes findingthe right program easier, because you can try before you buy. Also, because shareware distribution costs are muchlower, shareware prices are often lower, too. Finally, shareware has the ultimate money-back guarantee: if youdon't use it, you don't pay for it.

ASP OMBUDSMAN INFORMATION

This program is produced by a member of the Associationof Shareware Professionals (ASP). ASP wants to makesure that the shareware principle works for you. If you areunable to resolve a shareware-related problem with an ASPmember by contacting the member directly, ASP may beable to help. The ASP Ombudsman can help you resolve adispute or problem with an ASP member, but does notprovide technical support for members' products. Pleasewrite to the ASP Ombudsman at 545 Grover Road,Muskegon, MI 49442-9427, Fax 616-788-2765, or send aCompuserve message via Compuserve Mail to ASPOmbudsman 70007,3536.

WARRANTY

Users of TreePlan must accept this disclaimer of warranty: TreePlan copyrighted software and documentation areprovided on an 'as is' basis. The author and DecisionSupport Services disclaim all warranties, expressed orimplied, including, without limitation, the warranties ofmerchantability and of fitness for any purpose. The userassumes all risks as to the quality and performance of thissoftware and documentation. The author and DecisionSupport Services assume no liability for indirect, consequential, or incidental damages which may result fromthe use or misuse of TreePlan. Some states do not allowthe exclusion of the limit of liability for consequential orincidental damages, so the above limitation may not applyto you. This agreement shall be governed by the laws of theState of California and shall inure to the benefit of the authorand Decision Support Services and any successors,administrators, heirs, and assigns. Any action or proceeding brought by either party against the other arisingout of or related to this agreement shall be brought only in astate or federal court of competent jurisdiction located in thecity and county of San Francisco, California. The partieshereby consent to in personam jurisdiction of said courts.

USE OF SHAREWARE VERSION BEYOND 30 DAYS

TreePlan Help

If you purchase one of the following textbooks, you maycontinue to use the shareware version of TreePlan as longas you own the book:

Ragsdale, Spreadsheet Modeling and Decision AnalysisWinston & Albright, Practical Management Science

If you are a student, faculty, or staff at a university that hasan academic site license, you may continue to use theshareware version of TreePlan for the academic year.

AUTHOR INFORMATION

Please send comments about TreePlan and suggestionsfor improvements to:

Michael R. MiddletonMcLaren School of BusinessUniversity of San Francisco2130 Fulton StreetSan Francisco, CA 94117

Internet: [email protected]

TreePlan for Excel (Unregistered) 1.61Copyright 1996Michael R. MiddletonAll Rights Reserved

Hints

Hints: TreePlan and Excel 5

Hiding Selected Cells

To hide all rollback EV/CE cells:

* select one rollback EV/CE cell

* from the Tools menu choose Decision Tree...

* in the TreePlan...Select dialog box select (Cells) Rollback EVs/CEs

* click OK

* from the Format menu choose Cells...; in the Format Cells dialog box select the Number tab

* at the bottom of the Number tab select the Code field

* type three semicolons as a custom code

* click OK

Use similar steps to hide all cells of any specific type.

Pasting Into Word

To paste a copy of a decision tree into Word:

* from Excel's Tools menu select Options...; in the Options dialog box select the View tab

* in the View tab clear the check boxes for Formulas and Gridlines

* click OK

* from Excel's Edit menu select Go To...

* in the Go To list box select TreeDiagram

* click OK

* hold down the shift key and from Excel's Edit menu select Copy Picture...

* in the Copy Picture dialog box select (Appearance) As Shown when Printed

* click OK

* switch from Excel to Word

* select an empty paragraph

* from Word's Edit menu select Paste

Probability Sensitivity Analysis (Two Branches)

To see how expected value of the optimal strategy depends on a probability of interest:

* select the probability cell of the other branch of the event set

* enter the formula "=1-P" where P is a reference to the probability cell of interest

* enter a list of probabilities in a column

* select the cell in the row above the first probability in the column to the right

* enter the formula "=R" where R is a reference to the rollback cell of the initial decision node

* select the entire data table which includes the blank cell above the probability list,

the cells containing the list of probabilities, the cell with the formula referencing the

rollback cell, and the empty cells below the formula cell

* from the Data menu select Table...

* in the Table dialog box select the Column Input Cell field

* enter a reference to the probability cell of interest

* click OK

Excel TreePlan Sample

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Transcript of Excel TreePlan Sample