Evolving Solutions for New Horizons

Hong Kong Seafood Summit (Sept, 2012)

Where are we heading?

Global consumption patterns

Aquaculture Production

Year

Prod

uctio

n (m

illion

tonn

es)

20

40

60

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

80

100

120

Pig

Chicken

Fish

Production targets (national data)

Production forecast (this study)

Year

Prod

uctio

n (m

illion

tonn

es)

20

40

60

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

80

100

120

FAO (2004)Wijkstrom (2003)

IFPRI (2003)Ye (1999)

Fish

•Baseline/scenario

•Technological/advances/in/aquaculture

•Ecological/collapse/of/fisheries

• Global/consumption//remains/at1996/ levels/(15.6/kg/y)

• Global/consumption/rises/to/22.5/kg/y

Growing fisheries (0.7% per annum)

Stagnant fisheries

Year

Prod

uctio

n (m

illion

tonn

es)

20

40

60

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

80

100

120

FAO (2004)Wijkstrom (2003)

IFPRI (2003)Ye (1999)

Fish

•Baseline/scenario

•Technological/advances/in/aquaculture

•Ecological/collapse/of/fisheries

• Global/consumption//remains/at1996/ levels/(15.6/kg/y)

• Global/consumption/rises/to/22.5/kg/y

Growing fisheries (0.7% per annum)

Stagnant fisheries

Demand Drivers

Changes in developing country wealth (1995 – 2005)

Source:  World  Bank  (2011)  The  changing  wealth  of  na<ons.  

Growth in per capita wealth (1995 – 2005)

Source:  World  Bank  (2011)  The  changing  wealth  of  na<ons.  

Urbanization

US246.2

Urban population in millions

81%Urban percentage

Mexico84.392

77%

Colombia34.373%

Brazil162.685%

Argentina35.690%

Ukraine30.968%

Russia103.673%

China559.2

Urban population in millions

42%Urban percentage

Turkey51.168%

India329.329%

Bangladesh38.226%

Philippines55.064%

Indonesia114.150%

S Korea39.081%

Japan84.766%

Egypt33.143%

S Africa28.660%

Canada26.3

Venezuela26.0

Poland23.9

Thailand21.5

Australia18.3

Netherlands13.3

Peru21.0

Saudi Arabia20.9

Iraq20.3 Vietnam

23.3

DR Congo20.2

Algeria22.0Morocco

19.4

Malaysia18.1

Burma16.5

Sudan16.3

Chile14.6

N Korea14.1

Ethiopia13.0

Uzbekistan10.1

Tanzania9.9

Romania11.6

Ghana11.3

Syria10.2

Belgium10.2

80%

94%

62%

33%

89%

81%

73%

81%

67%

27%

33%

65%60%

69%

32%

43%

88%

62%

16%

37%

25%

54%

49%

51%

97%

Nigeria68.650%

UK54.090%

France46.977%

Spain33.677%

Italy39.668%

Germany62.075%

Iran48.468%

Pakistan59.336%

Cameroon

AngolaEcuador

IvoryCoast

Kazakh-stan

Cuba

Afghan-istan

Sweden

Kenya

CzechRepublic

9.5

9.38.7

8.6

8.6

8.5

7.8

7.6

7.6

7.4

Mozam-bique

HongKong

Belarus

Tunisia

Hungary

Greece

Israel

Guate-mala

Portugal

Yemen

DominicanRepublic

Bolivia

Serbia &Mont

Switzer-land

Austria

Bulgaria

Mada-gascar

Libya

Senegal

Jordan

Zimbabwe

Nepal

Denmark

Mali

Azerbaijan

Singapore

ElSalvador

Zambia

Uganda

PuertoRico

Paraguay

UAE

Benin

Norway

NewZealand

Honduras

Haiti

Nicaragua

Guinea

Finland

Uruguay

Lebanon

Somalia

Sri Lanka

Cambodia

Slovakia

Costa Rica

Palestine

Kuwait

Togo

ChadBurkina

Ireland

Croatia

Congo

Niger

Sierra Leone

Malawi

Panama

Turkmenistan

Georgia

Lithuania

Liberia

Moldova

Rwanda

Kyrgyzstan

Oman

ArmeniaBosnia

Tajikistan

CAR

Melanesia

Latvia

Mongolia

Albania

Jamaica

Macedonia

Mauritania Laos

Gabon

Botswana

Slovenia

Eritrea

Estonia

Gambia

Burundi

Papua New Guinea

NamibiaMauritius

Guinea-Bissau

Lesotho E Timor

Bhutan

Swaziland

Trinidad & Tobago

The earth reaches a momentous milestone: by next year, for the first time in history, more than half its population will be living in cities. Those 3.3 billion people are expected to grow to 5 billion by 2030 — this unique map of the world shows where those people live now

At the beginning of the 20th century, the world's urban population was only 220 million, mainly in the west

By 2030, the towns and cities of the developing world will make up 80% of urban humanity

The new urban world

Urban growth, 2005—2010

Predominantly urban75% or over

Predominantly urban50—74%

Predominantly rural25—49% urban

Predominantly rural0—24% urban

Cities over 10 million people(greater urban area)

Key

Tokyo33.4

Osaka16.6

Seoul23.2

Manila15.4

Jakarta14.9

Dacca 13.8

Bombay21.3

Delhi21.1 Calcutta

15.5

Karachi14.8

Shanghai17.3

Canton14.5

Beijing12.7

Moscow13.4

Tehran12.1

Cairo15.9

Istanbul11.7

London12.0

Lagos10.0

MexicoCity22.1

New York21.8

Sao Paulo20.4

LA17.9

Rio deJaneiro

12.2

BuenosAires13.5 3,307,950,000

The world’s urban population — from a total of 6,615.9 million SOURCE: UNFPA GRAPHIC: PAUL SCRUTONAfrica Asia Oceania Europe0.1%

Eastern Europe-0.4%

Arab StatesLatin America& Caribbean North America

3.2%2.4%

1.3%

2.8%

1.7%1.3%

Source:  UNFPA  .  

Fresh food consumption growth 2009 - 2014

Source:  www.euromonitor.com  .  

Global consumption patterns

Growth in demand for !sh (2007 – 2015)

Source:  Cai  (2011)  Preliminary  notes  on  forecas<ng  the  country’s  future  demand  for  fish.  

Growth in demand and need

number of stunted children in Asia (68 million) similar tothe number in Africa (64 million) in 2020. In Latin Americaboth the prevalence and number of affected children weremuch lower than in Africa and Asia (14% or 7 million in2010) and they are expected to continue decreasing in thecoming decade (Tables 2 and 3). Data in Oceania remainscarce and thus trend modelling is not possible. However,individual countries like Papua New Guinea show highrates of stunting (44% in 2005).

Nationally, there is great variation in rates of childhoodstunting. Figure 2 maps countries according to their latestnational stunting prevalence estimate. Rates are categorizedas low, medium, high and very high (,20 %, 20–29?9 %,30–39?9 % and $40 %, respectively)(18). Extremely highrates appear in countries like Afghanistan, Burundi andYemen, with levels above 50 % in most recent surveys.Other countries of sub-Saharan Africa, South-central andSouth-eastern Asia also present high or very high stunting

SPu

blic

Hea

lth

Nut

rition

0 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

2010 2015 2020

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Stun

ting

(%)

Fig. 1 Stunting trends from 1990 to 2020 by UN region (1 – 1 – 1, Africa; 3 – 3 – 3, Asia; B – B – B, Latin America & theCaribbean; , – , – ,, developing countries; 2 – 2 – 2, developed countries)

The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply the expression of anyopinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country,territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimination of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted lineson maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement.© WHO 2010. All rights reserved

Fig. 2 Latest country estimates of stunting in children aged 0–5 years ( , no data; , ,20 %; , 20–29?9 %; ,30–39?9 %; , $40 %)

Trends in childhood stunting 5

number of stunted children in Asia (68 million) similar tothe number in Africa (64 million) in 2020. In Latin Americaboth the prevalence and number of affected children weremuch lower than in Africa and Asia (14% or 7 million in2010) and they are expected to continue decreasing in thecoming decade (Tables 2 and 3). Data in Oceania remainscarce and thus trend modelling is not possible. However,individual countries like Papua New Guinea show highrates of stunting (44% in 2005).

Nationally, there is great variation in rates of childhoodstunting. Figure 2 maps countries according to their latestnational stunting prevalence estimate. Rates are categorizedas low, medium, high and very high (,20 %, 20–29?9 %,30–39?9 % and $40 %, respectively)(18). Extremely highrates appear in countries like Afghanistan, Burundi andYemen, with levels above 50 % in most recent surveys.Other countries of sub-Saharan Africa, South-central andSouth-eastern Asia also present high or very high stunting

SPu

blic

Hea

lth

Nut

rition

0 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

2010 2015 2020

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Stun

ting

(%)

Fig. 1 Stunting trends from 1990 to 2020 by UN region (1 – 1 – 1, Africa; 3 – 3 – 3, Asia; B – B – B, Latin America & theCaribbean; , – , – ,, developing countries; 2 – 2 – 2, developed countries)

The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply the expression of anyopinion whatsoever on the part of the World Health Organization concerning the legal status of any country,territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimination of its frontiers or boundaries. Dotted lineson maps represent approximate border lines for which there may not yet be full agreement.© WHO 2010. All rights reserved

Fig. 2 Latest country estimates of stunting in children aged 0–5 years ( , no data; , ,20 %; , 20–29?9 %; ,30–39?9 %; , $40 %)

Trends in childhood stunting 5

Stunting in children < 5 yrs

Source:  Onis  et  al.,  (2010)  .  

Well-being and security

Source:  New  England  Complex  Systems  Ins<tute  .  

Well-being and security

Well-being and security

Our challenges

Multiple and inter-related

SupplyCapture Fisheries

Aquaculture

DemandConsumption Patterns

Trade Patterns

Demand Drivers

Sector Structure and DynamicsFleets

Farms

Value Chains

GovernanceFisheries

Aquaculture

Environmental Impacts

Technical Barriers

Predicting Trends

Food security Over!shing

Pro!tability

Fishery Reform

Policy and Regulation

Polarities everywhere

Polarities everywhere

22

New supply chains for seafood: Impacts on price formation!

Results:

1. At least for the price formation in Germany, there is no statistical relation between increasing volumes of frozen pangasius fillets and landing prices for cod.

2. Regarding landing prices of plaice a statistical relation with in-creasing volumes of imported frozen pangasius fillets can be stated.

1

Seminar on price formation and marketing of fisheries and

aquaculture products

„New supply chains for seafood:Implications for competition and price

formation“

10. December 2009, Brussels

Dr. Matthias Keller, AIPCE/CEP

Source: http://ec.europa.eu/!sheries/news_and_events/events/price_seminar/keller_en.pdf

10-­‐13  Mt   19-­‐20  Mt  11-­‐13  mT  

Source: Mills et al (2010)

Marine and freshwater !sheries

Freshwater    fisheries  are  especially  important  for  many  of  

those  that  need  fish.  

10-­‐13  Mt   19-­‐20  Mt  11-­‐13  mT  

Source: Mills et al (2010)

Large and small-scale !sheries

Small  Scale  fisheries  are  especially  important  for  many  of  

those  that  need  fish.  

Demand and need

… and what poor consumers want to eat

What !sh farmers want to produce

Are we joining the dots?

Are we joining the dots?

Fish supply and demand scenarios in Cambodia and perspectives on the future role of aquaculture 1page

Fish supply and demand scenarios in Cambodia and perspectives on the future role of aquaculture

MAIN MESSAGES:

Aquaculture is essential for Cambodia’s future fi sh supply.

Growth of aquaculture is infl uenced by supply of fi sh from inland and marine capture sources, trade, technology development, private investment and adequate supply of essential inputs (mainly seed and feed)

Scenarios for future fi sh demand-supply for 2030 suggest aquaculture will need to supply between 106,000 tonnes and 281,000 tonnes by 2030.

Seven major Cambodian aquaculture systems currently supply the majority of farmed fi sh of which 50% of total production originates from one system, fresh water cage culture.

Future farmed fi sh supply will come from a combination of aquaculture systems. Four pathways were analysed for the future – continuation of the current system, a small holders low input dominated approach; a small holder high input dominated approached; and one dominated by SMEs.

Most optimal pathway projects 2030 total production of 187,840 tonnes with a shift to more effi cient small holder systems (46% of total supply), fresh water cage reduced to 20% and commercial farms (SMEs) as today at 23% of total supply. Farm infrastructure investment would be $200 million generating an annual net income of $127 million for half million households of which 85% are small holder farmers.

All pathways provide a good return on investment, indicating aquaculture can generate household and national income, business opportunity, employment, food and help lift rural households out of poverty.

All pathways indicate that the key to success will be getting the right mix of aquaculture systems, a shift away from heavy reliance on ‘wild’ feed and seed sources by signifi cant investment in domestic seed and feed production, and depending on the success of domestically sourced supplies of seed and feed, improvement of input supply value chains.

Research can contribute more effi cient system productivity, enhance integration with agriculture, value chains, better feeds and to cope with this rapid growth and improved extension models.

Growth will be infl uenced by regional fi sh supply and demand and status of aquaculture in Vietnam and Thailand. Increased competitiveness for similar production systems, reduced reliance on wild and imported feed and seed, exploiting new niche markets in Thailand and development of new indigenous species and requisite system technologies will be key to successful expansion.

Fish supply and demand scenarios for Cambodia

Fish supply and demand scenarios in Cambodia and perspectives on the future role of aquaculture2page

SCENARIOS FOR FISH SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN 2030

Stakeholder consultations prepared four scenario nar-ratives for fi sheries and aquaculture in 2030. An e-mail survey identifi ed key drivers of impact and their degree of uncertainty. Using the well established ‘Two-Axes’ method for scenario development, the drivers with high impact and

high uncertainty were used to create scenario logic, the framework to develop four scenario narratives for fi sheries and aquaculture in 2030 (Figure 2). Thereafter, a workshop was convened to describe in detail the scenario narratives and thus predict the most logical outcome in terms of out-put for different fi sh supply categories. Figure 2 shows the brief description of each scenario.

Figure 1: Schematic to show key steps, activities and outputs to determine future investment options for aqua-culture in Lower Mekong Basin

IS THE GROWTH OF AQUACULTURE IN CAMBODIA IMPORTANT?

Fish is vital to the well-being and livelihoods to millions of people in the Lower Mekong Basin, many of whom are poor, relying on fi sh as a major source of animal protein, sometimes the only source. Aquaculture - farming of fi sh and other aquatic animals - is becoming increasing more important in supplying fi sh to people in the region. The di-versity of aquaculture systems enable the poor to benefi t directly and also offer a lucrative investment for the better off which in turn offers employment for the poor and can re-duce fi sh prices thus providing greater access to the poor. Women may also gain from active participation in small holder fi sh farms, marketing and processing.

Aquaculture cannot replace the large volumes of fi sh har-vested from wild sources, but will grow in importance, as demand for aquatic products increases. Population is ex-pected to increase at 1.6% per annum in Cambodia over the next 20 years to 19 million people which would likely require substantial increased supplies of fi sh.

The supply of ‘free’ wild fi sh is under threat from over-fi shing, climate change, habitat modifi cation and hydropower development which could mean less fi sh supplied

from natural sources yet at the same time more demand. With aquaculture important for future fi sh supply, this study was initiated to explore in more detailed future fi sh sup-ply scenarios, the role of aquaculture, and provide a basis for understanding future investment and strategies for its sustainable development. The study was conducted by the Fisheries Administration (FiA), Inland Fisheries Research Development Institute (IFReDI) and the WorldFish Center co-funded by (ACIAR) (Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research), and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan.

HOW CAN WE LOOK INTO THE FUTURE?

Future fi sh supply and demand scenarios for 2030 were used to understand the choices and investment options for future aquaculture growth. The methodology involved four inter-linked steps; i) future scenario development, ii) mod-elling projected fi sh demand and supply for 2030 using the ‘AsiaFish Model’ iii) aquaculture system characterization and, iv) analysis of aquaculture pathway and investment options (Figure 1).

Cambodia scenarios to 2030

Governance & Law

Policy & Compliance

Envi

ronm

ent &

Hab

itat

Anarchy in !sheries

Good conservation and habitat

preservation

Empowerment of community !sheries,

legal compliance

Degradation of !sh habitat

Winner Takes All •  No hydro power •  High !shing •  Habitats preserved

Following the rules •  Rice-!sh !sheries

enhanced •  Hydro power grows •  Fisheries stable

Aquaculture plus •  Fisheries decline •  Aquaculture investment •  Hydro power grows

Cornucopia •  Little IUU •  No hydro power •  Aq limited

Theory of change

Multi-stakeholder process

A balance of perspectives.

Structured engagement with a clear objective

and guidance.

Sustained effort - more than ‘one-off’ inputs.

A forward looking and informed stakeholder

constituency

Improved policy framework that aligns

action.

Coherent engagement with existing policy

processes.

An improved investment and risk

climate

Increased contribution

to food security and

economic development

A global equivalent? How to make this happenTo facilitate the dialogue needed by the !sh sector, we propose to establish a partnership among several key international institutions to structure and design a global multi-stakeholder process. Over the course of 18 months a combined top-down and bottom-up approach will examine the industry challenges ahead and use this as the foundation for a coherent and e"ective global policy framework, developed across a network of participating organizations including governments, industry players, research organizations, NGO’s and civil society.

The diagram below summarizes the proposed process, the objectives for each stage and how they combine to achieve the desired outcomes.

Purpose To bring stakeholders into a constructive problem solving conversationsTo suspend power relations and foster authentic interactions among participants.

To broaden the stakeholder constituency engaged in dialogue.To validate and re!ne global perspectives.

To develop solution sets for key constraints to achieving desired futures for the !sh food system.

To consolidate and review solution sets and develop regionally contextualized policy solutions.

To elaborate a global policy agenda and identify initiatives to build on progress.

Output A global picture of the !sh food system and its possible futures.A challenge framework for further action that identi!es desired and undesired futures.

A regionally contextualized picture of the !sh food system, the constraints to achieving desired futures and risk factors for moving in undesirable directions.

Identi!ed policy and business innovation options and needs.Identi!ed research and funding priorities.

Regional policy proposals to move the !sh food system in desired directions and reduce risk of shifts toward undesirable trajectories.

Global policy proposals that consolidate and build on regional outputs and outcomes.

Outcome New and strengthened relationships among key global actors.Greater appreciation by participants of alternative perspectives.Commitment to joint problem solving.A framework for further dialogue at regional level.

New and strengthened relationships among key regional actors.Greater appreciation by participants of alternative perspectives.Commitment to joint problem solving and a framework for doing so.

A comprehensive system wide option set to support stakeholder derived reform objectives.

A stakeholder owned agenda for investment and reform that aligns incentives to achieve common interests.An improved climate for investment and action among an aligned stakeholder constituency.A more informed business sector that is better able to manage risk.

A stakeholder owned agenda for investment and reform that aligns incentives to achieve common interests.A nascent Global Action Network to continue dialogue and engagement to assure the contributions of the !sh food system.

5

GlobalScenarios

2030 & Policy Gaps

Relevance of Global Scenarios

to Regions & Regional

Policy Gaps

Regional Policy Draft

Global PolicyFramework &

Initiatives

Global Workshop

Global Workshop

RegionalWorkshops

RegionalWorkshops

RegionalWorkstreams

Policy

Innovation

Research

Funding

1 2 3 4 5

Thank you