Evolving Crude Trade Flows - International Energy Forum - IEF · 2018-04-03 · *Includes crude...
15
6 th Joint IEA-IEF-OPEC Workshop Kurt Chapman Evolving Crude Trade Flows Vienna 15 March 2018
Transcript of Evolving Crude Trade Flows - International Energy Forum - IEF · 2018-04-03 · *Includes crude...
6th Joint IEA-IEF-OPEC Workshop
Kurt Chapman
Evolving Crude Trade Flows
Vienna 15 March 2018
Contents
1. Global Supply 2. Global Demand 3. OPEC Production Adjustment 4. US Exports 5. Benchmark Relationships 6. Other Points
Global Supply
Source: IEA OMR 13-Feb 2018 *Includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs and oil from non-conventional sources
Supply (MMBD) 2016 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4
Canada 4.47 4.93 4.47 4.86 4.95 5.03 4.85 5.19
Mexico 2.47 2.33 2.31 2.16 2.13 2.11 2.07 2.04
Europe 3.52 3.66 3.49 3.36 3.42 3.53 3.51 3.41
U.S. (50 States ) 12.53 12.70 13.00 13.15 14.00 14.18 14.64 14.78
Total OECD 23.42 24.00 23.65 23.94 24.91 25.26 25.50 25.84 26.60
China 3.98 3.96 3.91 3.83 3.84 3.81 3.79 3.76
Brazi l 2.61 2.75 2.74 2.73 2.73 2.78 2.88 2.87
Colombia 0.88 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.83
Russ ia 11.34 11.46 11.34 11.30 11.32 11.32 11.32 11.33
Total Non-OECD 29.34 29.51 29.34 29.19 29.35 29.32 29.33 29.23 29.40
Process ing Gains 2.27 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.29 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.32
Global Biofuels 2.34 1.99 2.45 2.82 2.41 2.04 2.51 2.78 2.50
Total Non-OPEC 57.37 57.79 57.73 58.24 58.96 58.94 59.66 60.17 60.82
OPEC Crude Oil 32.80 32.11 32.30 32.68 32.33
OPEC NGLs 6.78 6.86 6.90 6.90 6.85 6.91 6.94 6.98 6.98
Call on OPEC 32.09 31.97 33.37 33.27 32.36 31.95 32.34 32.50 32.56
Total World Supply 96.96 96.76 96.93 97.82 98.14
Global Demand
*Includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs and oil from non-conventional sources Source: IEA OMR 13-Feb 2018
Demand (MMBD) 2016 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4
OECD Europe 14.04 13.95 14.31 14.74 14.32 13.94 14.34 14.75 14.59
Japan 4.03 4.33 3.64 3.69 4.13 4.26 3.47 3.55 3.94
Korea 2.63 2.69 2.56 2.64 2.72 2.70 2.62 2.58 2.69
U.S. (50 States ) 19.69 19.49 20.01 19.92 19.96 19.61 20.06 20.14 20.22
Total OECD 46.90 46.98 47.03 47.62 47.76 47.00 46.93 47.60 48.10
China 11.85 12.48 12.64 12.19 12.49 12.76 12.86 12.61 13.08
FSU 4.71 4.55 4.72 5.04 4.87 4.62 4.77 5.10 4.92
India 4.56 4.58 4.79 4.53 4.82 4.91 5.08 4.77 5.14
Middle East 8.27 7.92 8.49 8.67 7.93 8.10 8.65 8.91 8.29
Total Non-OECD 49.34 49.64 50.97 50.79 50.41 50.80 52.01 52.05 52.26
Total World Demand 96.24 96.62 98.00 98.41 98.17 97.80 98.94 99.65 100.36
World Crude Oil Production and Crude Runs 2018 vs 2017
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Canada U.S. SouthAmerica
W Europe Africa Russia Middle East India China Rest of Asia Other**
MM
BD
Production Crude Runs
Source: S&P Global Platts *Crude and condensate **Other includes FSU ex-Russia and Eastern Europe
OPEC/Non OPEC Actual vs Agreed Production Adjustment
Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report 12-Feb 2018, secondary-source estimates; IEA, non-OPEC nations estimates; Bloomberg
-50 -78
-178 -210
-131
-30
-486
-139 -95
-300
-100 -45 -20
-60
-136
-146 -126
-131
-52
-567
-149
-467
-279 -235
-36
146
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
kbd
Jan-2018 OPEC/Non-OPEC Actual vs Agreed Production Adjustment
Agreed (OPEC) Agreed (Non-OPEC) Actual
-10 -58 32 84 0 -22 -81 -10 -372 21 -135 9 166 -376
US Export Destinations
Source: EIA
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Expo
rts
(kbd
)
US Exports to Different Destinations
South America+Carribbean Canada Europe+Med Asia
Total US crude oil export flows averaged 465 kbd in 2015, 591 kbd in 2016 and 1,119 kbd in 2017
Top Importers (kbd) 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
Canada 323 359 427 331 133
China 252 22 1 1 1
Netherlands 84 43 5 0 0
Korea 57 11 3 2 0
Italy 43 20 4 3 0
France 30 8 2 0 0
Japan 28 8 0 0 0
India 22 0 1 0 0
Spain 22 9 7 3 0
US Export Destinations
Canada: 2015: 427 kbd 2016: 359 kbd 2017: 323 kbd
Europe + Med: 2015: 31 kbd 2016: 112 kbd 2017: 292 kbd
South America + Caribbean: 2015: 2 kbd 2016: 63 kbd 2017: 87 kbd
Asia: 2015: 5 kbd 2016: 54 kbd 2017: 409 kbd
Other: 2015: 0 kbd 2016: 3 kbd 2017: 7 kbd
Source: EIA
US Export Quality
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Jan 14 Jul 14 Feb 15 Aug 15 Mar 16 Sep 16 Apr 17 Nov 17 May 18
kbd
US Exports by Quality
Light Medium Heavy
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17
kbd
US Exports by Grade
Bakken Eagle Ford WTI/DSW Canadian Others Source: Clipper Data
US export ban lifted Jan-16
Grade Comparison
Source: S&P Global Platts; Argus Media
Grade API Sulphur (%)
WTI Midland East Houston (MEH) 43 0.2
Domestic Sweet (DSW) 42 0.5
Ekofisk 39 0.2
CPC Blend 45 0.6
Murban 40 0.8
Forties 39 0.8
Bonny Light 35 0.2
Ekofisk and CPC Blend vs WTI Midland East Houston (MEH)
Source: S&P Global Platts; Argus Media
-$6.00
-$4.00
-$2.00
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18
Ekofisk and CPC Blend vs MEH
Ekofisk FOB - MEH CPC Blend FOB - MEH
1.50
-0.50
Murban vs WTI Midland East Houston (MEH)
Source: S&P Global Platts; Argus Media
-$6.00
-$4.00
-$2.00
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18
Murban vs MEH
2.50
Murban vs Forties and Bonny Light
Source: S&P Global Platts
-$3.00
-$2.00
-$1.00
$0.00
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
Jan 16 Mar 16 May 16 Jul 16 Sep 16 Nov 16 Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17 Jan 18
Murban vs Forties and Bonny Light
Murban FOB - Forties FOB Murban FOB - Bonny Light FOB
Other Points
1. US Export Capacity Constraints
2. Shale Oil Production Profile
3. Lack of Traditional Production Investment
4. IMO 2020
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