Evaluation of the WEST 2000 Plus...

a

Report

Evaluation of

the WEST

2000 Plus

Program

WEST 2000 Plus Evaluation

22 May 2015 42908645/REP/0

Prepared for:

Western Local Land Services

Prepared by URS Australia Pty Ltd

AUSTRALIA

42908645/REP/0 J:\PER\42908645\5 Works\Final Report\42908645_Program Evaluation WEST2000 Plus_URS Australia_May 2015.docx

DOCUMENT PRODUCTION / APPROVAL RECORD

Issue No. Name Signature Date Position Title

Prepared by Dr Don Burnside 18/05/15 Consultant

Dr Ron Hacker pp. 18/05/15 Consultant

Checked by Vicki Williams 18/05/15 Senior Principal

Approved by Julian Gould 18/05/15 Director

Report Name:

Evaluation of the WEST 2000 Plus

Program

Sub Title:

WEST 2000 Plus Evaluation

Report No.

42908645/REP/0

Status:

FINAL

Client Contact Details:

Erlina Compton

Western Local Land Services

PO Box 307

142 Brisbane Street

Dubbo NSW 2835

DOCUMENT REVISION RECORD

Issue No. Date Details of Revisions

a 13/02/15 Issued for review

0 22/05/15 Final

Issued by:

URS Australia Pty Ltd

Level 3, 3 Forrest Place Perth WA 6000 PO Box 6004, East Perth 6892 Australia T: +61 8 9326 0100 F: +61 8 9326 0296 © Document copyright of URS Australia Pty Limited. No use of the contents, concepts, designs, drawings, specifications, plans etc. included in this report is permitted unless and until they are the subject of a written contract between URS Australia and the addressee of this report. URS Australia accepts no liability of any kind for any unauthorised use of the contents of this report and URS Australia reserves the right to seek compensation for any such unauthorised use. Document Delivery. URS Australia provides this document in either printed format, electronic format or both. URS Australia considers the printed version to be binding. The electronic format is provided for the client’s convenience and URS Australia requests that the client ensures the integrity of this electronic information is maintained. Storage of this electronic information should at a minimum comply with the requirements of the Electronic Transactions Act 2000 (Cth).

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. III

1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................. 1

1.1 About WEST 2000 Plus ................................................................................................................. 1

1.1.1 The WEST 2000 Precursor ........................................................................................................... 1

1.1.2 WEST 2000 Plus Program ............................................................................................................ 3

1.2 Final Program Evaluation ............................................................................................................. 5

2 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................ 7

2.1 Considering the combined effect of both programs ................................................................. 7

2.2 Participant change – short-term, medium-term and long-term outcomes .............................. 7

2.3 Considering whole-of-region change – long-term outcomes ................................................... 8

2.3.1 Separating out the effect of WEST 2000 Plus ............................................................................ 8

2.4 Program logic for the evaluation ................................................................................................. 9

2.5 Secondary data and information collection ............................................................................. 14

2.6 Primary Data Collection .............................................................................................................. 14

2.6.1 The design of the Evaluation Plan............................................................................................. 14

2.6.2 Changes required in implementing the plan ............................................................................ 14

2.6.3 Online survey ............................................................................................................................... 17

2.6.4 Interviews ..................................................................................................................................... 18

2.6.5 Informal telephone interviews ................................................................................................... 23

2.7 A summary of primary data collection ...................................................................................... 23

2.8 Limitations ................................................................................................................................... 24

2.8.1 Primary data collection ............................................................................................................... 24

2.8.2 Secondary data sources ............................................................................................................. 24

3 THE WESTERN DIVISION 1997 - 2015 ....................................................................................... 27

3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 27

3.2 The Western Division – climate and land use .......................................................................... 27

3.3 Enterprises and grazing animal numbers ................................................................................ 30

3.4 Economic trends ......................................................................................................................... 31

3.4.1 Property turnover ........................................................................................................................ 31

3.4.2 Business profitability in the Western Division ......................................................................... 35

3.4.3 Trends in land values in the Western Division ........................................................................ 39

3.5 Social / Demographic Trends ..................................................................................................... 40

3.5.1 Population trends ........................................................................................................................ 40

3.5.2 Employment trends ..................................................................................................................... 40

3.5.3 Human and social capital ........................................................................................................... 42

3.6 Resource Condition Trends ....................................................................................................... 43

3.6.1 Climatic trends ............................................................................................................................ 43

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TABLES

Table 1-1 Measures and objectives of the WEST 2000 program ............................................................... 2

Table 2-1 Logframe for WEST 2000 Plus ................................................................................................. 11

Table 2-2 Primary data collection as proposed in the URS Evaluation Plan (September 2014) .............. 15

Table 2-3 WEST 2000 Plus landholder contacts ...................................................................................... 16

Table 2-4 Summary of interviews conducted under the 'face to face ' component of the evaluation plan 19

Table 2-5 Summary of primary data sources ............................................................................................ 24

Table 3-1 Property and livestock numbers in western NSW ..................................................................... 30

Table 3-2 Number and percentage of land parcels (>4 ha) changing hands in the major Western Division LGAs and the Unincorporated Area, 2004/05 to 2007/08......................................................... 33

Table 3-3 Summary of Western Lands Lease and land parcel turnover rates (%) in the Western Division, 2004-2008 and 2009-2013 ........................................................................................................ 34

Table 3-4 Performance of specialist wool growers in the Western Division, 1994-2003 .......................... 36

Table 3-5 Performance of pastoral zone businesses in NSW 2009-2012 ................................................ 36

Table 3-6 Payments and waivers of rents and rates 2002-2014 .............................................................. 39

Table 3-7 Western CMA incentive grants to landholders, 2009-2010 ...................................................... 62

Table 4-1 Investment in feral goat management by the Western CMA from 2004 to September 2012 ... 68

3.6.2 Resource condition trends ......................................................................................................... 48

3.7 Government services / grants trends........................................................................................ 59

3.7.1 WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus .............................................................................................. 59

3.7.2 NSW Government ........................................................................................................................ 62

3.7.3 Commonwealth Government ..................................................................................................... 63

3.8 Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 64

4 THE OUTCOMES OF WEST 2000 / PLUS .................................................................................. 67

4.1 Short and medium term outcomes (Levels 2 and 3 in Logframe in Table 2-1) ..................... 67

4.1.1 Adoption of management innovations – medium-term outcome .......................................... 67

4.1.2 Market driven adjustment – medium-term outcome................................................................ 79

4.1.3 More profitable businesses – medium term outcome ............................................................. 83

4.2 Long term outcomes (Level 1 in the in Logframe in Table 2-1) .............................................. 91

4.2.1 Sustainable use and condition of natural resources – long-term outcome ......................... 91

4.2.2 Viable businesses – long-term outcome .................................................................................. 93

4.2.3 Summary – long-term outcomes ............................................................................................... 97

5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................ 99

5.1 The Western Division in 2015 .................................................................................................... 99

5.2 The value of WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus ...................................................................... 100

6 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................ 107

7 LIMITATIONS ............................................................................................................................. 109

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Table 4-2 Individual technologies adopted by landholders in the Western Division since 2005 .............. 73

Table 4-3 Benefit of new enterprise (by enterprise type) .......................................................................... 76

Table 4-4 Comparative industry structures (Survey response) ................................................................. 80

Table-B-1 Number of transfers of Western Lands Leases for the purpose of grazing, 2004-2013

Table-B-2 Number of transfers of Western Lands Leases for the purpose of agriculture, 2004-2013

Table-B-3 Number of transfers of Western Lands Leases for the purpose of grazing in combination with other purposes (mixed grazing leases), 2004-2013

FIGURES

Figure 2-1 Relationship between participant and regional outcomes .......................................................... 8

Figure 2-2 Program logic for the evaluation of WEST 2000 Plus ............................................................... 10

Figure 2-3 Approximate locations of landholders interviewed face-to-face ............................................... 20

Figure 3-1 The Western Division ................................................................................................................ 28

Figure 3-2 Enterprises operated by respondents to the survey ................................................................. 30

Figure 3-3 Trends in feral goat numbers in western NSW by bioregion .................................................... 31

Figure 3-4 Farm cash incomes and business profits 1996-2006 ............................................................... 37

Figure 3-5 Farm debt and equity 1996-2006 .............................................................................................. 37

Figure 3-6 Ratio of interest payments to total cash receipts of broadacre farms with debt, in Bourke, Brewarrina and Walgett shires, 1989-2015 .............................................................................. 38

Figure 3-7 Percentage change in population 2001 - 2011 ......................................................................... 40

Figure 3-8 Proportion of population employed in the agriculture, forestry and fishing industries by LGA (Source: ABS Community Profiles) ........................................................................................... 41

Figure 3-9 Unemployment rate (%) by LGA (Source: Department of Employment, 2006-14) ................... 42

Figure 3-10 Hospitalisations due to nervous and sense disorders by degree of remoteness ..................... 43

Figure 3-11 New South Wales annual rainfall relative to historical records, 1997-2014 .............................. 44

Figure 3-12 Bare ground % for (a) Western and (b) Lower Murray-Darling Natural Resource Management regions, 2000 – 2013. (Source: Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry) ............... 48

Figure 3-13 State (1992) and change (1992-2013) of ground cover for IBRA sub regions in western NSW .................................................................................................................................................. 54

Figure 3-14 Trend in average pasture cover over 21 monitoring sites in the Cobar Peneplain bioregion, 1989 – 2011 .............................................................................................................................. 55

Figure 3-15 Proportion of dust event types for seven locations in the Western Division, 1960 - 2011 ........ 55

Figure 3-16 Support received from NSW Government sources (Survey results) ........................................ 60

Figure 3-17 Involvement in WEST 2000 Plus (Survey results) .................................................................... 61

Figure 4-1 Effects of total grazing pressure management (Survey response) ........................................... 68

Figure 4-2 Effects of rabbit control (Survey response) ............................................................................... 69

Figure 4-3 Effects of woody weed management (Survey response) ......................................................... 70

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Figure 4-4 Effect of water supply relocation (Survey response) ................................................................ 72

Figure 4-5 Alternative enterprises established as a result of WEST 2000 Plus funding (Survey response) .................................................................................................................................................. 75

Figure 4-6 Effect on the business in establishing a new enterprise (Survey response) ............................ 75

Figure 4-7 Persistence of Young Farmer networks (Survey response) ..................................................... 77

Figure 4-8 Involvement in networks (Survey response) ............................................................................. 78

Figure 4-9 Extent of managed land (Survey response) ............................................................................. 80

Figure 4-10 Change in the area of land managed over the last 10 years. ................................................... 84

Figure 4-11 Effect of WEST 2000 Plus on the farm business (Survey response) ....................................... 86

Figure 4-12 Management changes over the last 10 years (Survey response) ............................................ 87

Figure 4-13 Drivers for management changes over the last 10 years (Survey response) ........................... 88

Figure 4-14 Confidence in the future (Survey response) ............................................................................. 90

Figure 4-15 Impact of WEST 2000 Plus on business profitability (Survey response) .................................. 94

Figure 4-16 Impact of WEST 2000 Plus on long-term prospects (Survey response) .................................. 95

Figure 4-17 Future intentions (Survey response) ......................................................................................... 95

APPENDICES

Appendix A Online Survey

Appendix B Annual turnover of grazing, agricultural and mixed Western Land Leases, 2004-2013

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ABBREVIATIONS

Abbreviation Description

ABARES Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics

BAS Business Activity Statement

CMA Catchment Management Authority(ies)

EBC Enterprise Based Conservation

EC Exceptional Circumstances

FMD Farm Management Deposits

IBRA Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia

INS invasive native scrub

LGA Local Government Authority(ies)

LLS Local Land Services

NRM Natural resource management

NSW New South Wales

PMP Property Management Plan

RAA Rural Assistance Authority of NSW

RFC Rural Financial Counsellor

RMI Range Management Inspector

RPP Rural Partnership Program

TGP Total Grazing Pressure

WD Western Division

Western LLS, WLLS Western Local Land Services

WLL Western Lands Lease

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Introduction

This report documents the objectives, methods, findings, conclusions and recommendations

from an evaluation of the WEST 2000 Plus program. The evaluation was commissioned by

Western Local Land Services (LLS), one of 11 regionally based Local Land Services

responsible for the provision of agricultural advice, plant and animal pest control, biosecurity,

emergency management and natural resource management in the Western Division of NSW.

The WEST 2000 Plus program and its predecessor, WEST 2000, collectively invested $30

million between 1997 and 2005 into a range of measures aimed at improving the

environmental condition and economic performance of the estimated 1,800 agricultural

businesses in the Western Division.

Methodology

The methodology for the program evaluation was first described in the Evaluation Plan

submitted to Western LLS in September 2014 (URS, 2014). The evaluation was designed to

review and evaluate the specific WEST 2000 Plus measures and activities, acknowledging

that the outcomes of this program cannot be definitively separated from those of the preceding

WEST 2000 program. The primary objectives for this project were to:

document successes achieved from implementation of the WEST 2000 Plus program

evaluate the effectiveness of the WEST 2000 Plus program design and delivery against

stated program objectives and measures

assess the impact of the WEST 2000 Plus program and the identified outcomes of the

program

inform similar natural resource management programs and organisations.

To achieve these objectives, the URS team reviewed all readily available secondary data

about socio-economic and environmental trends in the Western Division over the last 20

years, obtained primary data on the impact of WEST 2000 Plus via an on-line survey from

over 60 landholders who participated in the program, and interviewed a sample of landholders

regarding the impact of specific WEST 2000 Plus projects. Finally, a number of non-

landholders with wide knowledge of trends in the region were also interviewed, including Rural

Financial Counsellors, current and former government agency staff and financiers.

Conclusions – the value of WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus

Demonstration of a well-managed program

The management structure worked well and was commented on by many landholders

interviewed – essentially grass roots management, with a small, capable and personable staff.

This built credibility that in turn has benefited the CMAs and Western LLS.

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The value of a ‘big boost’

In the late 1990s, landholders were recognising the need to move away from reliance on wool

sheep and were beginning to consider meat sheep and the need to make better use of income

from goats. Further, there was interest in better land management, but not necessarily the

means to achieve it. WEST 2000 and West 2000 Plus provided sufficient seed funding to a

sufficient number of recipients to give these new enterprises and new management

technologies a ‘big boost’ – a term used by several of those interviewed. Clearly the funding

benefited the direct recipients, but there is sufficient evidence from the interviews that there

has been a spill-over effect across the region in time and space.

Commitment to management improvement

Several of those interviewed (landholders and non-landholders) regarded the support for

training as being the most valuable investment made by WEST 2000 Plus. The immediate

benefits were spread widely, with most landholders being involved in some aspect of off-

property skill development. This experience was new for many landholders, but as is evident

from survey and interview data, people have continued to seek out opportunities to build their

management skills.

There is evidence that the improved management skills enabled the region to get through the

‘millennium drought’ in better shape than occurred in previous droughts. At least some of this

better performance may be attributed to WEST 2000 Plus projects in the years before and

during the early years of the drought.

New attitudes and values

WEST 2000 Plus activity initiated and supported new thinking about the needs of the land, in

particular the importance of managing for ground cover and the opportunities for industry

development. The willingness of several landholders to become involved in the Enterprise

Based Conservation project, which was genuinely innovative in a pastoral environment, and

the evident satisfaction with their involvement represent new attitudes in managing rangeland.

The training activities and demonstrations opened peoples’ thinking to new ways of

management, and in many cases, this search for useful innovations has continued.

Good timing

WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus were well timed, which was a mixture of good planning and

luck. Good planning contributed to the decisions to invest in supporting landholders to develop

alternative enterprises at a time when the Merino wool industry was struggling and many

landholders were looking for alternatives. Further, the investments in infrastructure enabled

demonstrations of the value of total grazing pressure management and trap yard technologies

that are now still being implemented across the region. As noted below, training in computer

use aligned well with availability of cheap home computers, the internet, and good farm

business record keeping and accounting software packages. Finally, the decision to invest in a

trial of an enterprise based conservation project was innovative, but recognised the emerging

findings from research undertaken by ecologists and resource economists that showed the

‘gap’ between the profit maximising objectives of landholders and natural resource

management maximising objectives of the landlord (i.e. the government).

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Alongside this good planning, there was also an element of luck. The WEST 2000 investment

in warren ripping, which occurred before the release of calicivirus, was of limited value in

suppressing region-wide rabbit numbers. The investment in warren ripping in WEST 2000 Plus

occurred just after the period when calicivirus had swept through the area leading to a

dramatic reduction in the rabbit population. The warren ripping was able to complete the job,

by tackling those warrens still active. Those consulted suggested that the current low

population of rabbits in areas that have been warren-ripped through WEST 2000 Plus is 50

per cent due to calicivirus and 50 per cent to warren ripping.

Serendipitous benefits

The range of benefits which flow from projects cannot be foreseen in advance – many projects

led to useful learnings and developments that were not part of the original objectives either for

the projects, or indeed the WEST 2000 Plus program. Examples include:

There was no explicit objective to improve relationships between landholders and

government, although this was an outcome that has been beneficial for both parties.

Maintaining that close relationship in an era of reduced public services is challenging.

The original intent of rural financial counsellor services was to assist those people facing

severe financial stress. The acceptance of the value of these services now means that

they are consulted quite widely for a range of business management services. Although

not strictly aligned with their official role, the recognition of the value of business

management advice is a welcome development in the Western Division.

There was no explicit objective to build landholder awareness of the importance of ‘ground

cover’ as an indicator of land condition. However, we have been impressed by the number

of times landholders interviewed have referred to maintenance of ground cover as an

objective in its own right. This may not have occurred without the move into total grazing

pressure and enterprise based conservation management fostered by WEST 2000 Plus

and continued by the CMAs and Western LLS.

The investments in training for the purpose of building management skills aligned with the

introduction of better communication technology (phone, fax, internet) in the region,

computerised farm business record keeping and accounting, and the need to complete

business activity statements for taxation purposes. WEST 2000 Plus provided skills (and

software) in these areas, the electronic technology was available, and the requirement

emerged (as in business activity statements). The outcome has been many people with

much better business management skills.

What was not achieved

Sub-optimal property sizes have long been recognised as a problem in the Western Division,

affecting both land management practice and business viability. WEST 2000 Plus invested a

large amount ($3.05 million) into debt restructuring, property build-up and re-establishment

assistance. However, these funds benefited only a few (36 property build-ups) and had very

little regional impact. The secondary data we have been able to review for the evaluation

suggests that rates of property turnover are little changed overall, and that the problem of

‘churn’ in scrub encroached areas remains. Structural adjustment (i.e. towards larger business

sizes) appears to be proceeding relatively slowly. It may be limited by high property prices and

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the buying activities of a few very large landholders although only anecdotal evidence is

available to support this. In any event, WEST 2000 Plus was not able to substantially influence

this path towards improved regional viability.

The second area of relative failure has been the considerable investments made by WEST

2000 and WEST 2000 Plus in assisting landholders with the removal of woody weeds from

areas seriously affected by invasive native scrub (INS). Some short-term benefits were

achieved, but it seems that in many cases the land treated, often at a high cost per hectare,

has reverted to a shrub-dominated state. The general conclusion now reached is that there is

unlikely to be value in tackling areas of seriously affected land, unless the clearing costs can

be offset by opportunistic cropping (as occurs in the wetter margins of the Western Division).

To the extent that the WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus investments confirmed earlier

government agency views about the problems with large scale INS removal, this can be seen

as a form of benefit. The focus is shifting to keeping land ‘open’ by treating infestations when

they are first seen, although there is evidence that not enough landholders are taking action

early enough.

The first objective in the WEST 2000 Plus Program included as an outcome ‘self-reliant’ rural

industries. The continued support for business management services via ‘free for service’

publicly funded rural financial counsellors, and the continuing reliance on government grants

for total grazing pressure management and other infrastructure show that this outcome was

not fully achieved. While the region’s pastoral businesses are in better shape now than in the

1990s, there is an on-going expectation that government should support training and business

management as indirect assistance to landholders and provide grants for infrastructure

(fences, waters, trap yards) as direct forms of assistance. Given that much of this direct

investment is leveraged by landholder co-investment it can be justified for its natural resource

outcomes, although it is not consistent with full ‘self-reliance’. It may be that pastoral

industries, operating in an often difficult – in all respects – environment will never achieve full

self-reliance, but it is nevertheless a policy matter worthy of on-going analysis.

Recommendations

We recommend that:

Future major change management programs in rural Australia learn from and encourage

the incorporation of the experience of WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus.

Western LLS capitalise on the increasing interest in natural resource management in the

Western Division and support implementation of a program similar to the WEST 2000 Plus

EBC ground cover initiative, embedded in an appropriate policy framework that addresses

the need for cost neutrality. There is some interest in delivery of other environmental

services and that should also be encouraged.

The NSW and Commonwealth Governments recognise the important role being played by

the Rural Financial Counsellor Service and continue to support it in the short to medium-

term.

Government provide targeted assistance for succession planning and other social

supports.

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Western LLS recognise the ‘seed funding’ characteristic of grants programs and relax

eligibility criteria to ensure that public funding is spread as widely as possible.

More flexibility, in terms of the application and payment processes, be introduced into

future grant programs to better meet the needs of funders and grantees.

In the Cobar pedeplain region, government explore the value of providing assistance to

establish acceptable boundary fencing to ensure that properties can be sold and the

market is able to operate to allocate land to appropriate uses.

NSW and Commonwealth agencies responsible for information and data collection from

the region review what is being done currently and then implement more robust means of

tracking the state of, and trends in, the region.

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1 INTRODUCTION

This report documents the objectives, methods, findings, conclusions and recommendations

from an evaluation of the WEST 2000 Plus program. The evaluation was commissioned by

Western Local Land Services (LLS), one of 11 regionally based Local Land Services

responsible for the provision of agricultural advice, plant and animal pest control, biosecurity,

emergency management and natural resource management in the Western Division of NSW.

Western LLS (WLLS) has assumed the roles that were previously undertaken by Catchment

Management Authorities (CMAs), Livestock Health and Pest Authorities (LHPAs) and the

agricultural services arm of the NSW Department of Primary Industry. Between 2007-2013,

the Western CMA was responsible for the management and administration of the ongoing

components of the WEST 2000 Plus Program. Since 2014 this role has also been assumed by

Western LLS.

1.1 About WEST 2000 Plus

1.1.1 The WEST 2000 Precursor

The WEST 2000 Plus program had its genesis in the earlier WEST 2000 program initiated in

the Western Division of NSW in 19971. WEST 2000 was established under the

Commonwealth Government’s Rural Partnerships Program (RPP) which aimed to improve the

prospects for troubled regions and rural industries2. In the years prior to the establishment of

WEST 2000, landholders in the Western Division, particularly those in the wool growing

industry, were experiencing a significant economic crisis due to the convergence of a number

of pressures. These included seriously depressed commodity prices associated with disposal

of the wool stockpile, a mismatch between supply and demand in terms of wool quality, poor

seasons and high interest rates. In response to this situation, a joint search conference that

involved landholders and government officers proposed a broad program of change facilitated

through government intervention. Negotiations between industry organisations, and NSW and

Commonwealth Governments led to the development of WEST 2000.

WEST 2000 invested approximately $17.466 million in the Western Division through a range

of measures designed to put the region’s agricultural industries on a firmer footing. The

objectives for WEST 2000 were:

profitable and self-reliant rural industries which operate competitively and can adapt to

changing market, economic and resource conditions

sustainable management of the natural resource base

robust, equitable and prosperous rural communities.

A Memorandum of Understanding between the Commonwealth Government, NSW State

Government and Western Division landholders (February 1997) specified three key outcomes:

a strategic approach that addresses rural area economic development and adjustment,

sustainable land and water management, and social and environmental issues

community support and landholder ownership of the strategy (WEST 2000 program)

1 The title of the Program ‘WEST’ is derived from ‘Working for Equity and Sustainability Together’.

2 Twelve Regional Partnership Programs were established as joint Commonwealth, State and regional strategies to improve the

prospects for troubled regions and industries in areas such as the NSW Western Division, Gascoyne-Murchison of Western Australia, South West Queensland and the Eyre Peninsula, South Australia.

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coordination and integration of program delivery.

The WEST 2000 Program commenced in June 1997 and concluded in June 2001. The funds

were invested through 15 measures as shown in Table 1-1.

Table 1-1 Measures and objectives of the WEST 2000 program

Measure Objective

Productivity enhancement &

property build up

Long term viability, productivity and profitability for properties in the

Western Division.

Improved information & skills

base

To improve the availability and accessibility of information relevant

to management in the Western Division.

Maintenance of a sustainable

natural resource base

To enable landholders to bring about strategic and long term

change to the management of total grazing pressure.

Training & skills enhancement Through enhanced skills, pastoralists are able to increase

productivity and develop off-farm skills.

Productivity & business

management

To develop through research and development extension enhanced

management strategy options for pastoralists.

Alternative industries &

biodiversity conservation

Increase pastoralists’ options to diversify by introducing more

economically viable alternative enterprises, whilst conserving the

biodiversity of the region.

Enhanced rural counselling

services & support

To provide complementarity to the re-establishment component,

and to reinforce and support the rural counselling service.

Re-establishment grants To facilitate re-establishment by allowing landholders who have

taken the decision to exit the industry to leave with dignity.

Institutional reform To identify and remove the institutional impediments to reform in the

region.

Woody weed and rabbit

strategy

To improve the level of understanding and participation in

implementing rabbit eradication programs amongst all landholders

To engage widespread landholder involvement and participation in

woody weed control programs.

Other productivity elements To promote productivity and sustainability in the Western Division,

including enterprise diversification.

To facilitate drought-proofing of enterprises in selected areas of the

Western Division.

NHT Executive Officer To manage the Program effectively and efficiently.

WEST 2000 Management

Board

To implement, develop and oversee the WEST 2000 Strategy.

Communications strategy To achieve community awareness and commitment to the WEST

2000 Strategy and encourage the uptake of the measures

available.

Evaluation & review of the

strategy

To assess the outcomes and the success of the WEST 2000 RPP

Strategy.

An evaluation of the WEST 2000 program conducted by URS in 2001 showed that the most

effective investments of that program were those that focused on artesian bore rehabilitation,

training and skills development, natural resource management, and productivity and business

management.

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1.1.2 WEST 2000 Plus Program

During the successful completion of the WEST 2000 Program in 2000-01, the Commonwealth

and New South Wales Governments and the WEST 2000 Management Board negotiated a

successor program known as WEST 2000 Plus to continue the initiative. Support through

WEST 2000 Plus was available to landholders involved in non-irrigated agriculture and

pastoral industries in the Western Division. The objectives of the new program were:

to contribute to a competitive, viable and self-sustaining Western Division through the

provision of measures to enhance the economic performance of Landholders and

improve the management of the natural resources base

to contribute to robust, equitable and prosperous communities.

Some $12.44 million was allocated through the WEST 2000 Plus program across a range of

activities as follows:

$1.6 million to training and skills development

$0.95 million to alternative industries

$3.5 million to natural resource management

$0.5 million for innovative measures to support the natural resource base (with an

additional $266,263 from the Natural Heritage Trust)

$4.55 million for rural restructuring

$1.075 million for program management.

The expected outcomes of WEST 2000 Plus were:

enhanced long term viability of landholders in the Western Division

ensuring that Western Division landholders are better placed to meet future challenges

and threats

better management of the resource base including a more integrated approach to

maximising economic performance and enhancing the natural environment;

developing improved business management and technical skills of landholders in the

Western Division

the establishment of alternative enterprises in the Western Division

the development and implementation of innovative ideas that aimed to deliver

environmental, economic and social outcomes

robust, equitable and prosperous communities.

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WEST 2000 Plus was delivered between 2001 and 2005 and comprised the following six

measures:

Training and skills development • Landholder training grants

• Landholder grants for computer software

• Landholder grants for accessing professional

advice

• Young Farmers Forum 2004

• Young Farmer Assistance Pilot Scheme

Alternative industries • Landholders establish alternative industries

• Alternative industries development, analysis,

information and networking

Natural resource sustainability • Natural resource management

• Total grazing pressure and management trials and

demonstrations

• Large scale demonstration management burn to

control woody weeds

• Lachlan River water savings demonstration project

Managing the Natural Resource

Base

• Enterprise Based Conservation pilot scheme

• Infrastructure for approved Enterprise Based

Conservation projects

Rural restructuring • Interest rate subsidy grant for property build-up

• Debt restructuring

• Social counselling

• Vocational re-training

• Coordination of the Young Farmer Assistance

Scheme

Program Management • WEST 2000 Plus Management Board

• Communication Strategy

• Evaluation and review

In 2005, URS Australia Pty Limited was commissioned by the WEST 2000 Plus Management

Board to evaluate the delivery of the WEST 2000 Plus program. The program was evaluated

against its stated outcomes and nominated performance indicators with special attention to the

Young Farmers Assistance Scheme and the Enterprise Based Conservation (EBC) Pilot

Project. The combined WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus programs were evaluated for their

overall impact.

The evidence accumulated from the evaluation indicated that “the two programs had made a

useful contribution to improving the prospects and welfare of a sizeable proportion of

landholders and their farm business enterprises” (URS, 2005).

In July 2005 the WEST 2000 Plus Management Board held its final meeting and resolved that

a three member Executive Committee would represent its key stakeholders in continuing to

provide strategic direction for any variations to the delivery of the remaining projects. This was

endorsed by the NSW and Australian Governments.

Between 2007-2013 the Western Catchment Management Authority was responsible for the

management and administration of the WEST 2000 Plus Program and for the continued

42908645/REP/0 5

consultation with the Executive Committee of WEST 2000 Plus. Western Local Land Services

(WLLS) took over this role on 1 January 2014.

1.2 Final Program Evaluation

While each of the two initiatives, WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus, has been evaluated, in

2013 the Western Catchment Management Authority allocated retained funds to undertake a

longer term program evaluation. The decision to commission this current evaluation is a

recognition of the long term nature of many of the program objectives and that an assessment

of the enduring benefits of the investment made can only be made some years after

implementation.

The central purpose of this evaluation is to assess the extent of enduring practice change and

achievement of program objectives across the Western Division.

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2 METHODOLOGY

The methodology for the program evaluation was first described in the Evaluation Plan

submitted to Western LLS in September 2014 (URS, 2014). The evaluation was designed to

review and evaluate the specific WEST 2000 Plus measures and activities. The primary

objectives for this project were to:

document successes achieved from implementation of the WEST 2000 Plus program

evaluate the effectiveness of the WEST 2000 Plus program design and delivery against

stated program objectives and measures

assess the impact of the WEST 2000 Plus program and the identified outcomes of the

program

inform similar NRM programs and organisations.

We are confident that the previous evaluations of WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus have

adequately described the outputs from the programs. The focus in this ex-post evaluation is on

the medium and longer-term outcomes, being the degree to which the outputs have translated

into sustainable and beneficial changes in the management of businesses and landscapes in

the region.

The changes that have occurred after the completion of WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus

have occurred in a continually changing socio-economic environment and in a biophysical

environment that poses particular challenges to the observation, evaluation and attribution of

change.

2.1 Considering the combined effect of both programs

In reality it is not possible to separate the outcomes from WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus.

Hence, we regard the evaluation as covering both programs that extended from 1997 to 2005.

Throughout this document, mention of ‘WEST 2000 Plus’ alone should be interpreted as

referring to both programs.

2.2 Participant change – short-term, medium-term and long-term outcomes

The landholders invited to participate in this evaluation have all participated in at least one

WEST 2000 Plus activity, most commonly being a training activity. Many also participated in

WEST 2000 activities or measures.

In consultation with these participants the short-term outcomes are discussed only in relation

to the activity or activities in which they were involved. For example, did the assistance to

switch to meat sheep improve profitability; has the assistance provided through business

management training led to tighter financial control on the property?

Medium-term outcomes are those that have developed out of these ‘grant-specific’ outcomes.

In the examples given above, the meat sheep enterprise may have developed into the

marketing of a specific meat product which attracts a premium in the retail market; awareness

of the benefits of sound business management may have led to a decision to engage

professional management advice which has boosted business profitability.

42908645/REP/0 8

Long-term outcomes develop out of increased business profitability and may include

expanding the business by purchasing more land or diversifying off-property, or bringing

additional partners (e.g. other family members) into the business.

2.3 Considering whole-of-region change – long-term outcomes

The over-arching outcomes sought from the WEST 2000 Plus program:

to contribute to a competitive, viable and self-sustaining Western Division through the

provision of measures to enhance the economic performance of Landholders and

improve the management of the natural resources base, and

to contribute to robust, equitable and prosperous communities

are not specific to the WEST 2000 Plus participants. The intention was clearly to promote

beneficial and long term social, economic and ecological changes across the Western Division

as a whole. This evaluation therefore considers the extent to which investments and activities

led to region-wide change which, while reflecting mainly the collective outcomes achieved by

individual participants, may also reflect the extent to which their example exercised some

influence on non-participants and leveraged additional change.

The relationship between these outcomes is shown in Figure 2-1.

Figure 2-1 Relationship between participant and regional outcomes

2.3.1 Separating out the effect of WEST 2000 Plus

As well as ‘telling the story’ about region-wide change, it is necessary to separate out those

effects directly and indirectly due to the WEST 2000 Plus investments from:

the effects of post-2005 government investments in natural resource management (NRM)

and property build-up

Medium-term outcomes for

the participants

Long-term outcomes for the

region

Short-term outcomes for

the participants

WEST 2000 Plus investments

Long-term outcomes for the

participants

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changes in the terms of trade for different commodities that may have influenced

management decisions within businesses, such as the shift from wool sheep to meat

sheep or meat goats

innovations for management that were developed after the completion of WEST 2000

Plus

exit and entry of industry participants due to property sales;

the effects of the ‘millennium drought’ which occurred through the first decade of this

century

the very good seasonal conditions prevailing through the years 2010-2012.

This has been very challenging. Where explicit links could not be made between an observed

outcome and a WEST 2000 Plus output, we have taken a liberal view in attributing at least

some influence to the program. To put it another way, we have been prepared to attribute

some influence to the program wherever beneficial developments in the Western Division

have involved the sorts of new practices, industry restructuring or willingness to change that

were sought by the earlier programs.

2.4 Program logic for the evaluation

Figure 2-2 presents a diagrammatic program logic for the evaluation. The logic links the

investments in the WEST 2000 Plus measures (inputs) to the outputs achieved during the

period of WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus, and thus to the short-term (to 2005), medium-

term (to 2010) and long-term (to 2014) outcomes which can deliver the goal of prosperous

rural communities.

The short-term outcomes (2005) should have occurred as more profitable management

systems, a focus on business planning and financial control, greater use of knowledge

networks, and commitment to on-going learning were achieved. With these as drivers, the

medium-term outcomes (2010) should be seen as the widespread adoption of better business

and enterprise management and market-driven structural adjustment, allowing better placed

businesses to strengthen their situation. Finally, we should be seeing the benefits of those

developments now (2014) in natural resources that are better managed and hence in better

condition, and a greater proportion of businesses that are in sound financial condition.

The short-term, medium-term and long-term outcomes that post-date WEST 2000 Plus

are highlighted in the program logic in Figure 2-2 (within the red frame). These are the focus of

the evaluation.

The program logic has been used to develop a logical framework (see Table 2-1 Logframe

for WEST 2000 Plus) showing indicators for the outcomes in the program logic, how the

indicators for those outcomes were measured in the long-term, and how the measures have

been verified. Information that was obtained from landholders is shown in italics. The levels

and outcome statements in the table are shown with cross-referencing to the specific places in

Section 4 where these are addressed.

Because the evaluation is dealing with the post-WEST 2000 Plus legacy, indicators and

measures were not required for the outputs from the program itself, which were evaluated in

2001 and 2005.

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Figure 2-2 Program logic for the evaluation of WEST 2000 Plus

PROSPEROUS COMMUNITIESPROSPEROUS COMMUNITIES

INP

UT

SIN

PU

TS

OU

TP

UT

SS

HO

RT

TE

RM

OU

TC

OM

ES

ME

DIU

M T

ER

M

OU

TC

OM

ES

LO

NG

TE

RM

OU

TC

OM

ES

GO

AL

Widespread

adoption

Market driven

adjustment

Increasing

profitability

Government

resourcing for

adoption

Early adoption by

landholders into more

profitable management

systems

Sound business

strategies and plans

Expanded networks

Improved

management skills

Commitment to learning

Property expansion Some leave industry

Increased

productivity on ‘built

up’ properties

Demonstrated

technologies for

better grazing

management

Alternative business

opportunities

available

Improved

engagement

Control rabbits

Control woody weeds

Enterprise based

conservation (EBC)

Total grazing

management etc

Alternative industry

development

Training activities

Young farmers

initiatives

Rural & social

counsellors

Interest rate subsidy

Debt restructuring

Sustainable condition of

natural resources Viable businesses

FOCUS OF THIS EVALUATION

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Table 2-1 Logframe for WEST 2000 Plus

Level ‘Outcome statements’

(from Program Logic) Indicator(s) Measurements Means of verification

1. Long-term

outcomes (2014)

(addressed in

Section 4.2, with

summary presented

in Section 4.2.3)

Sustainable use and

condition of natural

resources (addressed in

Section 4.2.1, with

supporting information

presented in Section 3.6)

Trend in Western Division natural resources

over period 1999-2014

Change in natural resource condition since WEST 2000 Plus

Incidence of dust storms

Review of 2007 ACRIS Report for the Western Division

Review of ‘Dust Watch’ data for NSW

Interpretation of available data to separate seasonal and management effects

Viable businesses

(addressed in Section 4.2.2,

with supporting information

presented in Sections 3.4

and 3.5)

Number/ percentage of businesses at

financial risk

Trends in Rural Assistance Authority financial

support directed into the region

Trends in regional information on economic

performance (ABARES, Hassall &

Associates 1982 report)

Confidence in their situation amongst

landholders

Trend in number/ percentage of businesses seeking assistance to address financial stress since

WEST 2000 Plus.

Influence of WEST 2000 Plus on economic ‘health’ as perceived by external services (financiers,

LLS staff, consultants, secondary data sources)

Structural change in the pastoral industry of the Western Division

Interviews with Rural Financial Counsellors

Interviews with RAA manager

Interviews with financiers and consultants

Interviews with LLS staff

Reference to available ABARES data, Hassall & Associates 1982 report, etc.

Review of Crown Lands data on property transfers in the Western Division (post 2004)

Analysis of the current structure of the pastoral industry compared to earlier reports (e.g.

Hassall & Associates 1982)

Survey and interview data to obtain landholders’ levels of perceived confidence in their existing

situation and future.

Survey and interview data to obtain information on the contribution of off-station assets to

business viability.

2. Medium-term

outcomes (2010)

(addressed in

Section 4.1)

Widespread adoption of

more profitable

management systems,

business planning, use of

wider networks


overview presented in

Section 4.1.1.4)

Evidence of widespread use of improved

grazing management practices (e.g. use of

TGP, tactical grazing, Holistic Management

etc.)

Evidence of value of EBC

Evidence of widespread use of business

planning

Trends in the use of external management

advice

Evidence of use of networks for information

exchange and learning

Evidence of demand for capital for business

improvement and expansion

Number of landholders using best practice technologies in grazing management promoted by

WEST 2000 Plus

The value of EBC concept as viewed by government

The value of EBC concept as viewed by landholders

Number of landholders with a current business plan for their enterprise

Number of landholders using external advice in their business management

Networks (on-line and face-to-face) being used by landholders to support business and

property management decisions

The ability/ willingness of landholders to seek information to support decision-making

Interviews with LLS staff

Interviews with financiers


Interviews with consultants

Interviews with EBC participants

Evidence that best practice management systems are being adopted –

o TGP, land system fencing, tactical grazing, holistic management

o Evidence of Business planning (e.g. Farm Management Plans)

o On-line and face-to-face networks and information sources

Follow-up questions to determine when ‘new’ systems were adopted

Similar questions with young farmer sector

Market driven adjustment



Section 4.1.2.3)

Evidence of a functioning market that is

achieving adjustment

Number and value of property transfers (not

able to be done)

Property transfers compared between WEST

2000 Plus participants and those not

participating (not able to be done)

Demand for capital to expand businesses

The pattern over time in property transfers – as in – are properties becoming larger, are they

fragmenting, are transfers more frequent etc

Government requirements to intervene in the market (via RAA)

Number of landholders who would like to leave but can’t sell

Landholders’ intentions in the future - as in planning to stay as is, planning to stay and expand,

planning to leave at some time, invest off-property


Interviews with RAA Manager



Interviews with staff of Crown Lands (Western Region) and Western LLS

Survey and interview data to obtain landholders’ intentions – as in planning to stay as is,

planning to stay and expand, planning to leave at some time, invest off-property.

Similar questions with young farmer sector

Increasing profitability

(note indicators and

questions duplicate some in

‘viable businesses’ above)



Section 4.1.3.3)

Evidence of rising profitability of Western

Division businesses

Trends in regional economic ‘health’

Evidence of reduced incidence of ‘crises’ in

the Western Division

Number/ percentage of businesses that have sought assistance to address financial stress

Perception of region’s health by external services (financiers, LLS staff, consultants, secondary

data sources)

Performance in the ‘Millennium Drought’ as opposed to previous lengthy droughts

Landholders’ perception of current profitability – rising, steady, or falling




Interviews with WLLS staff

Reference to available ABARES data, Hassall and Associates report etc.

Survey data and interviews with landholders to obtain views about how they perceive current

and projected profitability.

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Level ‘Outcome statements’

(from Program Logic) Indicator(s) Measurements Means of verification

3. Short-term

outcomes (2005)

(addressed in

Section 4.1)

Government resourcing

(post-WEST 2000 Plus)

(addressed in Section

4.1.1.1, with supporting

information presented in

Section 3.7)

Effectiveness of government support for

adoption of improved grazing management

practices

Effectiveness of management support for

adoption of improved business management

practices

Effectiveness of government assistance for

development of alternative enterprises

Government resources invested in the region post-WEST 2000 Plus to support improved grazing

management

Government resources invested in the region post-WEST 2000 Plus to support improved

business management

Effectiveness of government’s investment



Survey and interview data with landholders to determine their use of government investment

for:

o Improved grazing management

o Business planning

o Alternative enterprise development

o Perceived value of government investment

Early adoption by

landholders into more

profitable management

systems (addressed in

Section 4.1.1.2)

Nature and number of beneficial

technologies promoted by WEST 2000 Plus

Availability of management systems that

deliver superior environmental and financial

outcomes

Technologies adopted by landholders in the years since WEST 2000 Plus

Benefits in woody weed management based on WEST 2000 Plus work

Changes in management systems since WEST 2000 Plus

Role of WEST 2000 Plus in driving these developments

Other events promoting adoption



Interviews with managers of large scale woody weed control demonstrations

Survey and interview data with landholders to determine what changes they have made in

management over the years since WEST 2000 Plus. (note duplicates similar questions above)

Expanded networks


4.1.1.3

Nature and number of information and

knowledge networks operating (on-line and

face-to-face)

Networks established through WEST 2000 Plus (e.g. Young Farmers) persisted

Networks that have established post-WEST 2000 Plus



Survey and interview data with landholders to determine what networks they have joined in the

years since WEST 2000 Plus. (note duplicates similar questions above)

Similar question with young farmer sector

Increased productivity on

‘built up’ properties

(addressed in Sections

4.1.2.1 and 4.1.3.1)

Evidence of benefits for recipients of build-

up grants

Evidence of any regional impact

Evidence of on-going structural adjustment

to achieve increased productivity

Numbers of properties in the Western Division before at after WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus

Rate of property turnover

Productivity for properties before and after WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus build-up

assistance


Interviews with staff of Crown Lands (Western Region) and Western LLS

(note – it was not possible to obtain data for individual properties involved in WEST 2000 and

WEST 2000 Plus for confidentiality reasons)

Sound business plans and

strategies (addressed in

Section 4.1.2.2)

Evidence of increased commitment to

strategic and business planning

Commitment to strategic and business planning amongst landholders

Other events promoting adoption

Performance in the ‘Millenium Drought’ as opposed to previous lengthy droughts




business and strategic management over the years since WEST 2000 Plus. (note duplicates

similar questions above)

Improved management skills


4.1.3.2

Evidence of sound and considered decision-

making at enterprise and business scales

Evidence of responsiveness to changing

operating conditions

Technologies adopted by landholders in the years since WEST 2000 Plus

Changes in management systems since WEST 2000 Plus





business and strategic management over the years since WEST 2000 Plus. (note duplicates

similar questions above)

Commitment to learning


4.1.3.2)

Nature and number of training opportunities

for landholders

Take-up of training opportunities

Training opportunities developed post-WEST 2000 Plus

Use of training opportunities used in the Western Division



Survey and interview data with landholders to determine what training they have undertaken in

the years since WEST 2000 Plus. (note duplicates similar questions above)

Enlarged properties Not available (note – it was not possible to obtain these data for confidentiality reasons)

Some leave industry Not available (note – it was not possible to obtain contacts for people who had left the region with WEST 2000

Plus support)

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T H I S P A G E I N T E N T I O N A L L Y L E F T B L A N K

42908645/REP/0 14

2.5 Secondary data and information collection

Secondary or documentary information relevant to the evaluation has been sourced from:

project records and reports and the previous evaluations directly related to WEST 2000

Plus

background information about the economic, environmental and social states and trends

of the Western Division and its agricultural businesses

information about lease transfers in the Western Division since 2004

information about government policies, programs and projects in the Western Division

after 2005.

2.6 Primary Data Collection

2.6.1 The design of the Evaluation Plan

Primary data collection was guided by the ‘Design of an Evaluation Plan’ prepared by

consultant GHD (July 2013) and the Evaluation Plan prepared by URS and was agreed with

WLLS at commencement of the evaluation study. Table 2-2below provides a summary of the

proposed participant numbers categorised by involvement type.

2.6.2 Changes required in implementing the plan

WLLS provided a database of WEST 2000 Plus participants and grant recipients. This

database comprised 552 discrete contact names, significantly less than the participant

numbers shown in the GHD evaluation design plan and in the URS evaluation plan. Two

factors may account for this; 1) the database was incomplete, and 2) some people listed in the

database accessed more than one program initiative. The complete breakdown of the 552

contact names is shown in Table 2-3.

Of the 552 contact names, 77 were subsequently identified by WLLS as no longer living within

the Western Division. Of the remaining 475 contact names only 154 had their email addresses

recorded. In an effort to increase the number of WEST 2000 participants /grant recipients who

could potentially provide input to the evaluation WLLS sent a letter to their database of

contacts requesting updated electronic contact details. Unfortunately, this did not generate any

additional email addresses.

An email was sent to the 154 email addresses contained within the WLLS database (including

Shire of Walgett landholders in the County of Finch) inviting participation in an online survey

on 6 October 2014. Thirty five (35) email addresses were found to be invalid. This first attempt

elicited 25 responses from the 119 delivered emails – a response rate of 21 per cent.

42908645/REP/0 15

Table 2-2 Primary data collection as proposed in the URS Evaluation Plan (September 2014)

Sub-group Number of

participants

Sample

size

E-mail

survey

Phone

survey

Personal

visit

Expected number

of responses

General data collection from all landholders accessing WEST 2000 Plus assistance

a. Landholders who received assistance for training grants, computer software, professional advice, and vocational training (which covers virtually all WEST 2000 Plus participants) 1,583* 1583* 1583* 700

Specific data collection

b. Participants in the Young Farmers Forum 2004, the Young Farmers Assistance Pilot Scheme and Young Farmers Assistance Establishment Grant 292* 292* 292* 96

c. Landholders who received assistance to establish alternative enterprises on their properties. 87* 87* 82 5 40

d. Landholders who were involved in alternative industries development analysis, information and networking 7* 5 5

e. Landholders who received assistance with natural resource management generally, and who were involved in TGP trials and demonstrations. 229* 229 228 7 120

f. Landholders involved in large scale woody weed control 9* 5 5 5

g. Landholders involved in Enterprise Based Conservation trials. 10* 5 5 5

Western LLS staff 5 5 5 5

Rural Financial Counsellors 10 7 5 2 7

Staff in other government agencies (Department of Primary Industries, Crown Lands, Rural

Assistance Authority, TAFE) estimate 10 10 5 5 10

Private sector financiers, sources of business management advice, consultants estimate 10 10 5 5 10

Board members – WEST 2000 Plus 10 5 5 5

Totals for specific data collection 685 666 602 20 44 303

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Table 2-3 WEST 2000 Plus landholder contacts

Category Number Comments

Total landholders in the WLLS data base (n = 552)

Landholders who have left the region 77 This number was determined by Western LLS.

Landholders without phone numbers shown in the data base

148 These were excluded from the population.

Landholders shown in the database more than once

11 Duplicate entries removed.

Landholders with valid email addresses at the commencement of data collection

119 These people were sent an email with a link to the on-line survey.

Landholders in the list to be phoned who were visited for face-to-face interviews

11

Landholders without valid email addresses, but with phone numbers

156 These people were phoned as shown in the section of the table below

Total number of landholder entries in the database

552

Landholders without valid email addresses, but with valid phone numbers who were contacted to obtain email addresses (n = 156)

Landholders whose phone number was no longer connected

28 No further attempt was made to make contact

Landholders phoned four times, without success

32 Many numbers either rang out or were diverted to voice mail. Phone calls were made between 5.00 pm and 7.30 pm over a period of two weeks.

Landholders phoned who did not believe they were involved in WEST 2000 / WEST 2000 Plus

13

These included people who were not managing the property at the time of the programs, people who suggested they had applied for assistance but not received it, and those that could not remember or did not know.

Landholders phoned who had purchased the property since the end of WEST 2000 Plus

3

Landholders phoned who had left the region 2 This included a person who had recently sold and was not interested in participating.

Landholders phoned who were not interested or not able to participate

5 These included people without email contact, but who were not interested in providing ‘on the spot’ feedback.

Landholders phoned who did not have an email address but were happy to participate in completing the survey

5 Hard copy versions of the survey were sent to these people.

Landholders phoned who did not want to complete the survey but who participated in an ‘on-the-spot’ short phone interview

7

Landholders phoned who were happy to participate and provided a valid email

61 These people were sent an email with a link to the on-line survey.

Total number of landholders phoned 156 This was done mainly to obtain valid email addresses (61 obtained).

Telephone calls were made to the 156 people listed in the WLLS database who had a phone

number, but who did not have an email address recorded, or whose email address was found

to be invalid. This was undertaken to obtain valid email addresses for these people, which it

was hoped would increase the number of survey responses. These calls, made over a period

of two weeks in January 2015 resulted in 61 additional email addresses being obtained. Links

to the online survey were sent to these 61 new contacts. Five people requested that a

42908645/REP/0 17

hardcopy of the survey be sent via mail. In the process of contacting people by telephone

seven ad hoc telephone interviews were conducted.

The telephone calls also identified that three properties had changed hands, 13 contacts could

not recall receiving any assistance through the WEST 2000 Plus program, or did not know if

assistance had been received, and 28 telephone numbers were not connected. This is not

entirely surprising given that some of the entries in the database were likely recorded at the

commencement of the WEST 2000 program initiative some 18 years ago.

2.6.3 Online survey

An online survey was designed to capture general information related to participant views

about how they have fared since 2005 and the impact of WEST 2000 Plus involvement on

their current and prospective circumstances (see Appendix A for a copy of the survey

questions). The software allowed for question skip logic to be utilised such that participants

would be directed to specific questions depending upon whether they had involvement in

particular initiatives. In this regard the survey contained questions specific to the following

items:

training, computer software and access to professional advice

the effects of WEST 2000 Plus on the business

changing the enterprise mix

involvement in Young Farmer’s initiatives

involvement in alternative enterprises

assistance with natural resource management

total grazing pressure systems

– land type fencing

– water supply

– earthworks

– rabbit control

– woody weed control.

As shown in Table 2-3, the total number of requests for completion of the on-line survey

distributed was 185, comprising 119 from the initial emailing, 61 further emails sent after

obtaining addresses via telephoning, and five people who asked to have hard copies of the

survey sent to them. One reminder was sent to all recipients of the email.

At the completion of the survey period, 61 survey responses had been received, being a

response rate of 33 per cent.

42908645/REP/0 18

2.6.4 Interviews

2.6.4.1 Formal face to face interviews

(a) Interviewee selection process

Western LLS provided URS with a database of WEST 2000 Plus participants and grant

recipients including a brief description of the assistance they were provided through WEST

2000 Plus. Starting from this database, participants in each of the grant programs for which

individuals were to be selected for personal visit (as shown in Table 2-2 above) were compiled

by filtering all database fields that contained information on grant types. Individuals resulting

from the filtering of one field were copied into a new worksheet and added to other rows

selected by filtering any other fields that contained entries that were interpreted as relating to

the grant type in question. Note that the final number of participants collated for each grant

type did not always match the number given in Table 2-2. This is likely due to an incomplete

database.

Within each ‘grant type’ worksheet, the random number function in MS Excel was then used to

compile a list of participants for interview, ensuring a reasonable spread across the Western

Division. If initial telephone contact was unsuccessful (three failed attempts, call could not be

connected), or individuals did not agree to participate, they were replaced by the next random

number on the list until the required number of individuals had agreed to participate. The grant

type worksheets were not ordered in any way before being subject to random selection.

Participants within grant type worksheets were selected for that grant type regardless of what

other grant types they had received.

Participants in the Western Total Grazing Pressure project (commenced under WEST 2000)

did not appear separately in the database and were added to the ‘NRM and TGP’ work sheet

manually based on the project report (Hacker et al. 2005). Two were selected at random.

Only three individuals were identified in the database as receiving funding for large scale

woody weed burning3. Only one of these was available for interview, one of the remaining two

being deceased and the other determined by Western LLS to have left the Western Division.

Angas Atkinson, the WEST 2000 Plus Project Officer formerly responsible for this measure,

was approached to obtain names of other participants but only one other was added to the list.

Ultimately only two of the proposed five participants could be identified and interviewed in this

category.

Individuals were not selected initially as interviewees for more than one grant type. If this

occurred as part of the random selection process they were allocated to the grant type that

was considered most appropriate if this judgement could be made. Ultimately, however, some

individuals were interviewed as recipients of more than one grant type where this was

practically convenient, and logistical or other difficulties were experienced in otherwise fulfilling

the required quota.

A number of individuals had difficulty in remembering the project for which they had received

funding from WEST 2000 Plus and when this occurred it was resolved as far as possible by

reference to Western LLS staff, without resort to the archived files.

3 WLLS advised that some people were accepted into this program but due to the drought and lack of fuel did not do a burn. Some did

do initial preparation by clearing tracks to subdivide the area to be burnt into smaller blocks.

42908645/REP/0 19

Individuals who were not participants in WEST 2000 Plus were selected subjectively based on

their relevant knowledge and experience. Some individuals were specifically nominated in the

Evaluation Plan. In addition, some others, above the numbers originally proposed, were

interviewed as opportunity presented. These included people who had worked in the Western

Division during the time of WEST 2000 Plus, but who had subsequently retired and former

Board members of WEST 2000 Plus. Difficulty was experienced in negotiating access to

financiers (resulting in only three of the five anticipated interviews being completed).

The final number of .interviewees compared with the numbers proposed in the Evaluation Plan

is shown in Table 2-4.

(b) Telephone interviews conducted instead of face-to-face visits

In a few instances logistical difficulties prevented face-to-face interviews with individuals who

had agreed to participate in this aspect of the evaluation and resort to telephone interview was

necessary. This was the case for 2 of the 47 interviewees listed in Table 2-4.

Table 2-4 Summary of interviews conducted under the 'face to face ' component of the evaluation plan

Measure or category No. of interviews

required No. of interviews

completed

Landholders

Alternative industries 10 10

Enterprise Based Conservation 5 5

NRM and TGP trials and demonstrations 7 8

Large scale woody weed burning 5 2

Training* 0 1

Young Farmer Assistance 0 1

Non-landholders

Western LLS staff 5 5

Financial counsellors 2 3

Staff of government agencies 5 5

Private sector financiers, sources of business management advice, consultants

5 3

Other 0 5

TOTALS 44 48

* This measure was discussed in detail as part of interviews primarily undertaken for other measures or categories.

The locations where face-to-face interviews with landholders took place are shown in Figure

2-3. All parts of the Western Division were covered by these interviews which were conducted

between October and December 2014.

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APPROXIMATE LOCATIONSOF INTERVIEWEES AND

SURVEY RESPONDENTS

Whilst every care is taken by URS to ensure the accuracy of the digital data, URS makes no

representation or warranties about its accuracy, reliability, completeness, suitability for any particularpurpose and disclaims all responsibility and liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence)

for any expenses, losses, damages (including indirect or consequential damage) and costs which maybe incurred as a result of data being inaccurate in any way for any reason.

Electronic files are provided for information only.The data in these files is not controlled or subject to automatic updates for users outside of URS.

This drawing is subject to COPYRIGHT.

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AustralianCapital

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New South Wales

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2.6.4.2 Topics for discussion

Questions or topics for discussion at interview were based on the indicators and

measurements presented in the Program Logic (Table 2-1). For landholders, specific

questions included:

Please describe your involvement with WEST 2000 Plus and how you used the grant

funds provided.

How well did your project achieve your objectives in seeking the grant? What went well,

what did not go so well?

How has that project affected your business – as in management, profitability, land

condition etc.?

Has your experience with the project influenced others within your circle of industry

contacts (i.e. to adopt, not to adopt). Do you to feel confident that others could make a

decision to adopt or not adopt based on your experience of the project?

What advice would you offer future programs seeking to invest in the Western Division?

For non-landholders the topics addressed are outlined below. Not all topics could be

addressed by each of the non-landholder interviewees but each was allowed to self-select the

topics on which they were prepared to offer comment.

1. Economics

How is the region’s economic health perceived – at regional and individual

business scale? What has been the impact of WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus

on profitability and equity?

What number/ percentage of businesses have sought assistance to address

financial stress post WEST 2000 Plus? What government resources have been

invested in the region post-WEST 2000 Plus to support improved business

management? How effective has government’s investment been?

How many landholders are using external advice in their business management?

Is market driven structural adjustment sufficient to address terms of trade

stresses? What is the pattern, over time, in property turnover – as in – are

properties becoming larger, are they fragmenting, are turnovers more frequent

etc? Is Government required/ requested to intervene in the market (via RAA)?

Are there landholders who would like to leave but can’t sell?

What are landholders’ intentions in the future - as in planning to stay ‘as is’,

planning to stay and expand, planning to leave at some time, invest off-property?

2. Environment

What changes are evident in natural resource condition since 1990? What is the

impact of WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus on the environment? Did WEST

2000 Plus prompt people to get more involved in natural resource management/

new management technologies?

Can we separate seasonal from management effects? What management

occurred during the ‘millennium drought’? Has the incidence of dust storms

changed?

42908645/REP/0 23

What is the value of the grazing demonstrations and pilots undertaken through

WEST 2000 Plus and the demand for information products developed from the

demonstrations and pilots?

How have management systems changed since WEST 2000 Plus? What was the

role of WEST 2000 Plus in driving these developments? What else has been

happening to promote change?

What government resources have been invested in the region post-WEST 2000

Plus to support improved grazing management (and anything else)? How

effective has government’s investment been?

What technologies have landholders adopted in the years since WEST 2000

Plus? What numbers of landholders are using best practice technologies in

grazing management?

3. Social

What has been the influence of WEST 2000 Plus on engagement of young

people, development of networks, commitment to training, willingness to seek

external advice?

4. Demonstrated technologies for better grazing management

What is happening now with woody weed management? How has woody weed

management benefited from WEST 2000 Plus work? What was the role of WEST

2000 Plus in driving these developments?

What is happening in rabbit control? How has rabbit control benefited from WEST

2000 Plus work?

How well has TGP been taken up in the Western Division? What role did WEST

2000 Plus play in encouraging adoption?

5. Enterprise-Based Conservation Pilot Scheme and Infrastructure for EBC

How well has the EBC concept been taken up by government?

How well has the EBC concept been taken up by landholders?

2.6.5 Informal telephone interviews

As noted in Section 2.6.2, seven landholders who were telephoned as part of securing

additional email addresses, chose instead to provide verbal feedback on the impact of WEST

2000 Plus involvement on their business and/or the country. These informal or ad hoc

interviews typically lasted between 10 and 20 minutes on the phone. The information provided

has contributed to the findings presented in later sections.

2.7 A summary of primary data collection

Table 2-5 summarises the primary data sources and the responses to the on-line survey. As

described in the previous sections, assembling a sufficiently large sample from landholders

involved in WEST 2000 Plus was challenging, involving the soliciting of contact details by

letter and telephone. The former method was quite unsuccessful, while the latter yielded

contact details and at least verbal agreement to participate from 73 of the 96 successful phone

calls (76%).

42908645/REP/0 24

It is worth noting that 13 of those successfully phoned (14%) did not believe they had been

involved in the program, or did not know of any involvement. Finally, only 5 (5%) of those

spoken to were either not willing or did not feel able to participate in the evaluation.

Given the elapse of time since the completion of WEST 2000 Plus, these levels of response to

requests for assistance in the evaluation from those who answered telephone calls suggests

favourable recollections of the WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus programs.

Table 2-5 Summary of primary data sources

Primary data source Number in

sample

Number responding

(%)*

Landholders emailed a link to the on-line survey 180 61 (33%)

Landholders who elected to receive a hard copy survey 5 1 (20%)

Landholders selected for face-to-face interviews 26 27 (100%)

Landholders who provided ad hoc information over the phone

7 7 (100%)

Non-landholders selected for face-to-face interview 21 21 (100%)

Total primary data sources 239 117 (45%)

2.8 Limitations

2.8.1 Primary data collection

The capture of primary data from landholders fell well below that envisaged in the GHD

Evaluation Plan and that prepared by URS for this evaluation. The latter suggested 700

responses to a general on-line survey distributed to 1583 participants in WEST 2000 Plus, and

303 responses on specific WEST 2000 Plus projects from 685 participants.

Due to a loss of records, property transfers and landholder retirements, it was possible to

identify with some certainty 475 WEST 2000 Plus participants currently in the Western

Division. Of these, only 180 valid email addresses could be obtained for administration of the

on-line survey. The response rate of completed surveys (33%) is reasonable, and the collated

data are useful.

The face-to-face interviewing process was more successful, with the target number of

interviews for landholders and non-landholders being met, although obtaining contact details

and arranging meetings was far from straight forward, and very time-consuming. The

difficulties encountered confirm non-landholder commentary that landholders are very time

poor, and extremely busy running their properties with limited staff numbers. This point is

considered in following sections.

Overall, 117 primary data sources had been captured, and the commentary addressing the

outcomes identified in the Program Logic largely relies on these valuable data.

2.8.2 Secondary data sources

Obtaining valid secondary socio-economic and environmental data related to the pastoral

industry in the Western Division of NSW was not easy. Given the significant levels of

investment made by the NSW and Commonwealth Governments in the Western Division

42908645/REP/0 25

during WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus, and subsequently via CMAs, Western LLS and

Exceptional Circumstances (EC) provisions, it is surprising that the economic fortunes of the

pastoral industry are not tracked more closely. Gaps in important information such as property

values and property turnovers, and even in the certainty attached to the number of pastoral

businesses in the Western Division, have limited the reporting of trends in this report. Further,

for many of the items of interest, the Western Division is not identified as a ‘reporting entity’

either by the NSW or Commonwealth Governments. These limitations have required some

extrapolation from the available data sources. The issues are considered in making

recommendations in Section 5.

42908645/REP/0 27

3 THE WESTERN DIVISION 1997 - 2015

3.1 Introduction

In this section, the available secondary data and information about the pastoral industry in the

Western Division are presented and reviewed for trends in available and relevant socio-

economic and environmental indicators over the period from about the commencement of

WEST 2000 until now. Together with the primary data presented in Section 4, this material has

been used to report against the indicators present in the Logframe in developing conclusions

and recommendations.

3.2 The Western Division – climate and land use

The total area of the Western Division is 325,000 square kilometres (see Figure 3-1). The

climate is characterised by hot summers and mild winters, with low and erratic rainfall.

Average annual rainfall varies from 480 mm in the north-east (Walgett area) to 150 mm in the

north-west. The standard deviation of annual rainfall is typically between 25 and 30 per cent of

the mean. The area used for primary production in 2000 was 319,000 km2 (31.9 million

hectares). The remainder of the land is held in conservation reserves.

While the period 1997 – 2015 represents the interval over which changes attributable to the

programs should be sought, not all indicators can be studied over this period. Some data are

available for only part of this period and conclusions must necessarily be drawn from these

more limited data sets. Electronic records of lease transfers, for example, are available from

NSW Industry and Investment, Crown Lands only from 2004.

The number of broadacre agricultural businesses (grazing and part-grazing and part-cropping)

was 1,822 in 2000 (Anon 2000 - Western Lands Review 2000). This number has reduced

through amalgamation to approximately 1,650 in 2012.

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Cobar (A)

Bourke (A)

Central Darling (A)

Walgett (A)

Wentworth (A)

Balranald (A)

Hay (A)

Bogan (A)

Carrathool (A)

Lachlan (A)

Brewarrina (A)

Unincorporated NSW

Broken Hill (C)

WESTERN DIVISION

42908645-003.mxd RNM VW 17/02/2015

3-1

NEW SOUTH WALESWESTERN DIVISION

Whilst every care is taken by URS to ensure the accuracy of the digital data, URS makes no

representation or warranties about its accuracy, reliability, completeness, suitability for any particularpurpose and disclaims all responsibility and liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence)

for any expenses, losses, damages (including indirect or consequential damage) and costs which maybe incurred as a result of data being inaccurate in any way for any reason.

Electronic files are provided for information only.The data in these files is not controlled or subject to automatic updates for users outside of URS.

This drawing is subject to COPYRIGHT.

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WEST 2000 PLUS EVALUATIONWESTERN

LOCAL LANDSERVICES

42908645/REP/0 29


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3.3 Enterprises and grazing animal numbers

Trends in stock numbers are shown in Table 3-1. The pastoral zone in NSW, which includes

all of the Western Division of the state, mainly supports small stock enterprises with some

opportunistic cropping at the higher rainfall margins to the south and east of the zone. In

2000, there were about 5 million sheep in the region, with this number declining to 3 million in

2012. Over recent years there has been a significant shift from wool sheep to meat sheep

(principally Dorpers) and managed goats – in part attributable to WEST 2000 and WEST 2000

Plus - with a modest increase in the number of cattle grazed. Unfortunately, the ABARES data

presented in the table do not differentiate between wool sheep (Merinos) and meat sheep

(principally Dorpers).

Table 3-1 Property and livestock numbers in western NSW

Year Properties in the WD Sheep* Cattle*

2000 1822 5,100,000 190,000

2012 1650 3,000,000 200,000

* derived from ABARES farm surveys

Although the trend to meat production has been significant Sinclair and Curtis (2015) have

shown that for the LGAs of Cobar, Bourke and Central Darling the value of wool production in

2010-11 ($42.9 M) was still higher than the value of sheep meat production ($34.1 M) though

substantially less that the value of all forms of meat production (sheep, cattle and goats -

$64.3 M).

Although only a small sample of Western Division businesses, the evaluation survey

responses presented in Figure 3-2 show the diversity of livestock types now being run in the

region. One observation is that the percentage of respondents involved in cropping is possibly

higher than for the region as a whole.

Figure 3-2 Enterprises operated by respondents to the survey

0.0%

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42908645/REP/0 31

The livestock numbers presented in Table 3-1 do not include the large numbers of (mainly)

feral goats in western NSW. Goats are abundant in five bioregions in the NSW rangelands and

have increased in each bioregion at an average annual rate of 5-10% over the period 1992-

2012. Increases have been greatest in the mulga lands, Cobar Peneplain and Murray-Darling

depression (see Figure 3-3). Surprisingly, drought in the early 2000s did little to dampen this

overall increase. An increasing proportion of Australia’s feral goat population occurs in New

South Wales, comprising 70 per cent of the total in 2010. In 2011, there were an estimated

2.95 million feral and domestic goats in the NSW rangelands (Pople and Froese, 2012). Based

on ABS data, it is likely that 320,000 of this total number are managed goats.

The relative move from wool to meat sheep over the last 15 to 20 years, a higher focus on

meat as a component of total return where Merinos continue to be run, and the increased

access to feral goats as a source of marketable animals has been very important in sustaining

grazing businesses in the Western Division through these years, as discussed in the next

section.

Figure 3-3 Trends in feral goat numbers in western NSW by bioregion

BHC (Broken Hill Complex), CP (Cobar Peneplain), Darling Riverine Plain (DRP), Mulga Lands (ML), Murray-Darling Depression (MDD)

Landholders interviewed for the evaluation also referred to large numbers of kangaroos across

the Western Division. Kangaroo numbers in the Western Plains of NSW (531,000 km2), which

includes all of the Western Division were estimated at 13.45 million in 2014 (up 15% from the

last count in 2013). However, due to the low price for kangaroo meat, only 11% (264,856) of

the available quota of 2.4 million were harvested in 2014 (West Darling Pastoralists’

Association News Report 435, 4 December 2014).

3.4 Economic trends

3.4.1 Property turnover

Pritchard et al. (2012) examined patterns of turnover (or ‘churn’) of rural land in NSW for the

four fiscal years 2004/05 to 2007/08, corresponding to the latter part of the WEST 2000 Plus

42908645/REP/0 32

program and the two years immediately following. In addition to state-wide data, they provide

data for individual local government areas. Collectively, these data provide a baseline against

which more recent trends in property turnover in the Western Division, although not

determined on the same basis, can be broadly compared. All data provided by Pritchard et al.

are based on land parcels greater than 4 ha for which complete ownership information was

available (a total state-wide database varying from 346,790 parcels in 2004/05 to 384,194

parcels in 2007/08).

3.4.1.1 State-wide trends

Pritchard et al. present data at the state-wide level in three ways – the proportion of parcels

changing hands, the proportion of land area changing hands, and a ‘composite index’

representing an average of the ‘parcels’ and ‘area’ approaches. Over the four years 2004/05

to 2007/08, the turnover rate, as reflected by the composite index, averaged just over 5% per

annum and varied within only a narrow range (4.9 – 5.6%). The annual turnover rate, based

on parcels (and estimated from Figure 1 of the report), was slightly lower, about 4.7% per

annum, and again varied between relatively narrow limits (estimated at 4.4% - 5.0%). This

parcel turnover rate is the most relevant to the data presented below on lease transfers in the

Western Division.

Pritchard et al. considered that the finding of relative stability in state-wide turnover rates in the

period 2004-2008 was important given the considerable inter-annual fluctuations which

occurred in this period. These included fluctuations in climate, commodity prices, regulatory

reforms to water allocations and trading, major purchases of land by state agencies

(particularly the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service) and new regulations associated

with native vegetation clearance, biodiversity protection etc. They also noted that, in general,

regions more remote from Sydney tended to have higher turnover rates than those closer to

Sydney. In particular, local government areas in the Western Division displayed higher rates of

turnover than other areas of the State. With the exceptions of only the Unincorporated Area in

2004-05 and the Local Government Authority (LGA) of Central Darling in 2006-07, all major

LGAs wholly within the Western Division displayed composite indices of 6.0 or greater for the

four years of the study.

3.4.1.2 Local Government Area Trends

For the present study, the most relevant data presented by Pritchard et al. for individual LGAs

relates to the number of parcels undergoing ownership change in any year as a percentage of

the total number of parcels examined. In addition, they present data on the areas undergoing

ownership change in terms of whether these changes represent aggregation, fragmentation or

changeover defined as:

aggregation – the buyer is already a landowner in the LGA;

fragmentation – the buyer owns no other land within the LGA and the seller retains other

land within the LGA; or

changeover – the buyer owns no other land within the LGA and the seller retains no other

land within the LGA.

42908645/REP/0 33

Land transfers within each of these categories were further classified in terms of the

characteristics of the new owners – individual, company or Government, Indigenous or

community organisation .

Turnover of land parcels in Western Division LGAs from 2004/05 to 2007/08 is shown in Table

3-2. Overall, the average turnover rate is 5.6% per annum, somewhat higher than the state-

wide rate of 4.7% per annum for individual parcels. In contrast to the state-wide data, the data

shows considerable variation among both LGAs and years. Property turnover was consistently

higher in the Cobar LGA through these years, and generally lower across all years in the

Central Darling and Walgett LGAs. A spike in turnover rate occurred in the unincorporated

area between 2005 and 2007, which was in the middle of the ‘millennium drought’.

Table 3-2 Number and percentage of land parcels (>4 ha) changing hands in the major Western Division LGAs and the Unincorporated Area, 2004/05 to 2007/08.

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08. Average

No. % No. % No. % No. % No. %

Balranald 84 4.6 240 12.9 219 11.6 70 3.6 153 8.2

Bourke 106 8.1 81 6.2 96 7.3 114 8.2 99 7.5

Brewarrina 53 6.3 44 5.2 35 4.1 53 6.1 46 5.4

Central Darling 62 4.7 83 6.3 31 2.3 75 5.5 63 4.7

Cobar 100 6.8 81 5.5 145 9.7 143 9.2 117 7.8

Unincorporated area 19 1.9 71 7.2 81 8.2 46 4.5 54 5.5

Walgett 147 3.5 153 3.6 110 2.5 234 5.1 161 3.7

Wentworth 82 4.1 100 4.9 149 7.2 127 6.1 115 5.6

TOTAL* 653 4.7* 853 6.1 866 6.0 862 5.8 809 5.6

* Total number of leases in the database for each year, used to calculate the overall % figure, was derived from the data in the body of the table . Data for the LGAs of Hay and Carrathool, which are largely outside of the Western Division, and for the LGA of Broken Hill, are not included. Walgett Shire is included as greater than 50% of the shire is located within the Western Division. Source: Pritchard et al. (2012)

No data directly comparable with Table 3-2 are available post-2008 so any direct comparison

of property turnover rates in the short and medium-long terms following the WEST 2000 Plus

intervention is not feasible. However, a broad comparison may be made from data provided by

NSW Trade & Investment, Crown Lands, Dubbo detailing Western Lands Lease (WLL)

transfers in the period 2004-2013, and the overall Western Lands Lease database. Data for

lease transfers is available in electronic form only from 2004 (S. Hawke, pers. comm.)

Table-B-1, Table-B-2 and Table-B-3 in Appendix B show the number of WLL transfers for

grazing, agricultural, and mixed leases respectively. These descriptions refer to the ‘purpose’

for which each WLL is provided. Each WLL has at least one ‘purpose’ but many have multiple

purposes dependent on the opportunities for mixed farming businesses and the move towards

greater diversification in recent decades. Data for Lightning Ridge, where most activity is

mining-related, has been excluded from the data used to produce these tables. Table 3-3

provides an overall summary of lease transfer rates for comparison with the rates indicated in

Table 3-2, and the state-wide figures given above.

Unfortunately, turnover rates for individual Range Management Inspector (RMI) Districts

cannot be calculated as the overall WLL database does not assign leases to a RMI District

42908645/REP/0 34

and thus the total number of leases in each District cannot be determined. Furthermore, the

assignment of RMI Districts in the lease transfers database appears somewhat arbitrary as

indicated by the inconsistent classifications in Table-B-1, Table-B-2 and Table-B-3 in Appendix

B.

Table 3-3 Summary of Western Lands Lease and land parcel turnover rates (%) in the Western Division, 2004-2008 and 2009-2013

In attempting to draw any comparison between the data of Pritchard et al. (2012) and that

derived from the WLL database and the associated lease transfer database it must be noted

that the number of entities contributing to the data vary greatly between the two sources. The

total number of parcel transfers given in Table 3-2 varies between 653 and 866 per annum,

with the imputed total number of parcels in the database varying from 13,966 to 14,841. (The

number of parcels in the ‘workable database’ used by Pritchard et al. increased over the years

of their study as more parcels with complete ownership information became available). In

contrast, the total number of transfers of grazing, agricultural and mixed grazing leases varied

only between 83 and 342 per annum with total lease numbers (assumed static) of 4,737. The

reasons for this discrepancy between ‘parcel’ and WLL numbers is not entirely clear but could

be related to (a) the exclusion of the many small leases in the Lightning Ridge district from the

WLL database and (b) the probable inclusion of many small (though > 4 ha) parcels, perhaps

peri-urban, in the ‘workable database’ of Pritchard et al. that are not administered under the

Western Lands Act or are not for agricultural/pastoral purposes.

Table 3-3 indicates that:

The average turnover rate of grazing leases in the period 2004-2008 (5.4%) was

comparable to the general ‘parcel’ turnover rate for Western Division LGAs (5.6%), but,

as expected, slightly above the state-wide parcel-based average of 4.7%.

Average turnover rates of agricultural and mixed grazing leases in the period 2004-2008

(2.1% and 3.7%, respectively) were lower than both the Western Division and state-wide

parcel-based turnover rates in this period, perhaps reflecting the generally more sound

economic condition of these type of enterprises which are located in the more productive

margins of the Western Division.

The average turnover rate of grazing leases declined in the period 2009-2013 (by 0.9%)

while that of agricultural and mixed grazing leases increased (by 1.4% and 0.9%,

respectively) in this period. These figures, however, are all within the range of year-to-

year variation (1.9%) shown in Table 3-2 though (not unexpectedly) somewhat larger than

the corresponding range in the annual turnover rate at State level (0.6%).

WLL

Grazing

WLL

Agricultural

WLL

Mixed grazing

Land

parcel*

2004-2008 5.4 2.1 3.7 5.6

2009-2013 4.5 3.5 4.6 n/a

2004-2013 5.0 2.8 4.1 n/a

*From Pritchard et al. (2012), figures refer to financial years;

Total number of WLL is grazing 3854, agricultural 444, mixed grazing 439.

42908645/REP/0 35

The data suggest that over the Western Division as a whole there is no strong evidence that

the operation of WEST 2000 Plus had any marked, or measurable, effect on rates of property

turnover. The data presented here and in Appendix B, and information provided by Crown

Lands, Dubbo, (S. Hawke, pers. comm.), indicate that high rates of lease turnover are still

characteristic of the more heavily shrub-encroached areas of the Western Division, particularly

the LGAs of Cobar and Bourke, where many leases are no longer used exclusively for

grazing, or for grazing at all. The rate of absenteeism (i.e. lessees who do not live on the

property) is about 20-25% in the Bourke and Cobar RMI Districts compared with about 10%

elsewhere (S. Hawke pers. comm.).

3.4.2 Business profitability in the Western Division

One of the desired outcomes of the WEST 2000 Plus Program is a regional agricultural

economy that is in better health and more self-sustaining. Determining trends over time in

environments affected by seasonal and commodity price fluctuations is difficult, although it is

reasonable to assume that a robust industry will demonstrate sound fundamentals in terms of

productivity gains, average returns on assets managed and business profit.

Several sources of data are available for the review of trends over the last 20 years. Financial

data on grazing enterprise performance for the years 1994 to 2003 are shown in Table 3-4.

Secondary financial data on grazing enterprise performance for two series of years are shown

in Table 3-5. These data show that on average, businesses made significant losses through

these years, which covered most of the period when WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus were

operating.

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Table 3-4 Performance of specialist wool growers in the Western Division, 1994-2003

Item 1994/95 to 1996/97* 1999/2000 to 2001/02**

2002/03**

Sample/population 48/544 na 9/336

Area (ha) 27,792 ha 27,717 54,640

Total animal number 6,325 head 6,449 5,488

Total cash receipts $202,070 $209,546 $244,253

Total cash costs $164,195 $166,379 $278,879

Cash income $37,876 $43,167 ($34,635)

Business profit

(includes depreciation

and imputed labour

cost)

($23,079) ($32,916) ($158,933)

Capital value ($/ha) $41 $52 $45

Equity percentage 82 85 91

Business profit at full

equity

$517 ($8,722) ($140,078)

rate of return (incl

capital appreciation)

0.0% (0.6%) (5.9%)

* ABARE (1999) ** Martin et al. (2004), pp. 45-46

More recent ABARES survey data for key indicators were obtained for the period 2007 to

2012, and these are presented in Table 3-5. Although the standard errors for some items are

high, the data indicate that the financial situation for pastoral zone businesses improved in the

years after 2008. As a consequence, farm business profits were positive over the three years

to 2012, debt levels declined, and the return on capital was favourable. As discussed in more

detail in later sections, non-landholders interviewed for the evaluation were adamant that the

switch to Dorpers and increasing feral (and domestic) goat sales were critical in sustaining

many pastoral businesses through the ‘millennium drought’ years, and the more favourable

seasons since then. This was despite the change-over costs associated with the shift to

Dorpers and managed goats such as increased investment in fencing.

Table 3-5 Performance of pastoral zone businesses in NSW 2009-2012

Item 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Farm cash income ($)* 19,942 49,413 67,750 108,940 198,701 121,007

Non-farm income ($) 34,077 23,291 38,300 17,760 14,605 37,939

Equity (%) iss 84 88 85 87 89

Debt ($) 670,683 486,137 341,558 558,366 452,419 334,000

Farm business profit ($) -85,745 -23,990 -30,361 10,844 185,120 56,396

Profit at full equity ($) -31,767 14,095 1887 51,762 221,275 88,332

Rate of return excluding

capital appreciation (%) -1 0 0 1 6 3

Rate of return including

capital appreciation (%) 2 1 2 11 8 3

* total cash receipts – total cash costs ** iss – insufficient sample size Survey data from ABARES. All figures are in 2012-13 dollars

42908645/REP/0 37

Complementary ABARES survey data for the period from 1996-2006 shows that the average

farm business profit was -$30,560, with positive profits reported in only two years in this

decade, as shown in Figure 3-4. The significant loss in average business profit in 2002-03

aligns with the data for the same period presented in Table 3-4.

Figure 3-4 Farm cash incomes and business profits 1996-2006

Source: Khairo et al. (2008)

As shown in Figure 3-5, business debt increased steadily from $250,000 in 1996 to $372,000

in 2006, although rising property prices meant that there was a rise in equity from 83% per

cent to 87% over the same period (Khairo et al. 2008).

Figure 3-5 Farm debt and equity 1996-2006

Source: Khairo et al. (2008)

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Further economic performance data covering the period of WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus

through to the present are available for Bourke, Brewarrina and Walgett Shires (ABARES et

al. 2014). Although these data will include mainly grain growing properties in Walgett Shire

outside the Western Division, it is likely the trends presented are representative of large areas

of the Western Division. In Figure 3-6, the trends in debt servicing show the impact of the

‘millennium drought’ on the ratio between interest payments and business cash income. The

favourable 2010 and 2011 seasons resulted in a lower proportion of the farm cash income

being required to service debt. Although the trend over the years is slightly upwards, it is not

apparent that there is widespread financial stress associated with making interest payments.

Indeed, in this study, only 4 properties were in debt mediation and three were facing

foreclosure at 30 June 2014, out of a total of 630 businesses with debts. Advice from Rural

Financial Counsellors and financiers interviewed for the evaluation is that there are few

properties in extreme financial difficulties in the WD, and certainly many less than in the

1990s. The ability of Western Division businesses to secure capital and manage debt is also

addressed in later sections.

Figure 3-6 Ratio of interest payments to total cash receipts of broadacre farms with debt, in

Bourke, Brewarrina and Walgett shires, 1989-2015

Source: ABARES et al. (2014)

Further evidence for the difficulties faced during the ‘millennium drought’ and an improvement

in business fortunes after that time comes from data on rent and rate waivers in the Western

Division since 2002-03, shown in Table 3-6. Although the NSW Government removed the

waivers after the end of the ‘millennium drought’, much of the Western Division is again

receiving rent and rate relief in 2013-14. This assistance for those businesses would seem to

be at odds with the information collected for this evaluation suggesting that the financial status

of most businesses is currently favourable.

%

5

10

15

20

25

30

1989–90

1990–91

1991–92

1992–93

1993–94

1994–95

1995–96

1996–97

1997–98

1998–99

1999–00

2000–01

2001–02

2002–03

2003–04

2004–05

2005–06

2006–07

2007–08

2008–09

2009–10

2010–11

2011–12

2012–13

2013–14p

2014–15y

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Table 3-6 Payments and waivers of rents and rates 2002-2014

Year Lease rents Wild dog destruction rates

zone % waived Rate c/ha zone % waived

2002-03 All WD 100 3.0 All WD 100

2003-04 All WD 100 3.0 All WD 100

2004-05 All WD 100 4.5 All WD 100

2005-06 All WD 100 3.9 All WD 100

2006-07 All WD 100 4.5 All WD 100

2007-08 All WD 100 4.5 All WD 100

2008-09 All WD 75 4.5 All WD 75

2009-10 All WD 75 4.5 All WD 75

2010-11 All WD 75 4.5 All WD 50

2011-12 All WD 50 4.5 All WD 0

2012-13 All WD 0 4.5 All WD 0

2013-14 Nominated

LGAs*

100 (promised)

50 (actual)

4.5 Nominated

LGAs* 100

* LGAs of Walgett, Bourke, Brewarrina, Cobar, Central Darling, Bogan, City of Broken Hill, Unincorporated Area; approximately 80% of the Western Division. Source: NSW Trade and Investment, Crown Lands Division, West Region

3.4.3 Trends in land values in the Western Division

Land values have risen over the period since the commencement of the WEST 2000 program.

Information presented in the 2005 evaluation of WEST 2000 Plus shows that the average land

value for the period from 1996 to 2003 across the whole of the Western Division was

$32.39/ha (URS, 2005).

One assessment of land values calculated the average annual land value increase in the

pastoral area of NSW for the period between 2001 and 2011 at 5.6%, compared to 10.4% for

the wheat-sheep zone and 7.9% for high rainfall areas

(http://www.htw.com.au/industry_presentations/rural-breakfast-2011-nsw-herron-todd-

white.pdf, accessed 3 February 2015). An annual increase of 5.6% over the 2003 average

land value of $32/ha (see previous paragraph) suggests a region-wide land value of about

$62/ha now. This figure was confirmed for the west and north west of the Western Division in

discussion with some of the non-landholders. Landholders in the more favoured areas of the

Western Division in the southern Wentworth Shire suggested current prices of between $90-

$110/ha for good quality land.

http://www.htw.com.au/industry_presentations/rural-breakfast-2011-nsw-herron-todd-white.pdf

http://www.htw.com.au/industry_presentations/rural-breakfast-2011-nsw-herron-todd-white.pdf

42908645/REP/0 40

3.5 Social / Demographic Trends

3.5.1 Population trends

The Western Division of NSW covers the local government areas of Balranald, Bourke,

Brewarrina, Broken Hill, Carrathool, Central Darling, Cobar, Lachlan, Wentworth, and the

Unincorporated Far West and portions of the Shires of Walgett, Bogan and Hay4. It covers an

area of approximately 325,000 km2 or 42% of the state of New South Wales.

Most of the Western Division is semi-arid rangeland of which 95% is held under perpetual

lease. Major industries of employment in the Western Division are agriculture, mining , and

health services. The population across these local government areas was about 55,000 at the

time of the last Australian household census in 2011. In the ten years between 2001 and 2011

the population decreased by over 8,000 people, a reduction of 15.25 per cent. Every local

government area experienced a decrease in population over this period as shown in Figure

3-7.

Figure 3-7 Percentage change in population 2001 - 2011

3.5.2 Employment trends

In 2011, the main industry of employment across the Western Division, as per the Australian

Bureau of Statistics industry classifications, was ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’. This was

the case in all LGA’s except Cobar, where mining was the largest industry of employment, and

Broken Hill where health and social assistance employed the largest proportion of the working

age population.

The proportion of the LGA working age population engaged in agriculture (including those

working in forestry and fishing) has shown some fluctuation between the years 1996 and 2011

as shown in Figure 3-8 below. Generally, there has been a declining trend in employment in

the agricultural sector across the Division.

4 The statistical analysis in this report refers to the ten complete local government areas contained within the Western Division boundary

shown in Figure 3-1.

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

Balranald Bourke Brewarrina Broken

Hill

Carrathool Central

Darling

Cobar Walgett Wentworth Unincorp

Far West

42908645/REP/0 41

This decline in the number of people employed in agriculture in the WD was raised in

discussion with landholders and non-landholders interviewed for the evaluation. The cause

given has been the need to reduce costs through the ‘millennium drought’ and the difficulty of

attracting labour onto pastoral properties. The result according to those interviewed is that

landholders are working harder than previously to maintain their businesses, and a

consequent reduction in time spent off the property networking either socially or for business.

The difficulty experienced in contacting landholders to arrange interviews is perhaps further

evidence of a ‘time-poor’ situation for many in the industry.

This mirrors similar trends across Australia as small farmers sell up to large-scale farming

operations, and fewer young people take over family farms (ABS, 2012). Declining

employment in the sector is also a result of changing climatic conditions - limited rainfall and

drought, and economic fluctuations – recessions and weakening commodity prices.

Figure 3-8 Proportion of population employed in the agriculture, forestry and fishing industries by LGA (Source: ABS Community Profiles)

Data on unemployment has been sourced through the Department of Education, Employment

and Workplace Relations Small Area Labour Markets data for the past six years, 2008-2014.

Although there have been seasonal fluctuations the overall trend across these years has been

relatively steady (see Figure 3-9). In line with other regional areas in Australia, the

unemployment rate for most LGAs, with the exception of Balranald, Carrathool and Cobar, has

been consistently higher than the state (NSW) rate. This suggests that employment is being

found in sectors outside of agriculture.

Thus although local labour is potentially available to the region’s agricultural businesses, it

would appear that the reported inability of the industry to afford additional labour is contributing

to the higher unemployment rate. The overall declining population suggests that people are

choosing to leave the region to seek employment.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

1996

2001

2011

1996

2001

2011

1996

2001

2011

1996

2001

2011

1996

2001

2011

1996

2001

2011

1996

2001

2011

1996

2001

2011

1996

2001

2011

Uninc. Far

West

Cobar Central

Darling

Carrathool Broken Hill Wentworth Brewarrina Bourke Balranald

Industry of employment - Agriculture, forestry and fishing

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Figure 3-9 Unemployment rate (%) by LGA (Source: Department of Employment, 2006-14)

3.5.3 Human and social capital

There are no separate data describing the human and social capital in the agricultural

industries in the Western Division. Those people interviewed for the evaluation considered that

the managerial capacity has increased over the last two decades. Further, there is

intergenerational renewal happening with some instances of younger people taking over

property management in the region. The healthy state of enrolments at the Broken Hill School

of the Air is evidence for this renewal.

Conversely, the same people said that the labour force on pastoral properties in the region

has declined (as shown in the previous section) and together with property amalgamation is

increasing the workload for landholders, with the result that they are ‘time poor’ and

experiencing varying stress levels. As noted later in this report, succession planning and

successful implementation is an important issue for many families, and there is inadequate

external support for people struggling with this problem. Marriage breakdowns are seen to be

too frequent, with men preferring to stay and women looking for alternatives.

The reduced population numbers on properties, and increasing workloads are limiting

opportunities for face-to-face socialising and community development. This problem is being

offset to a considerable degree by the improved telephone communications and increased

access to the internet.

Mental health problems are known to occur amongst landholders in the Western Division. The

NSW Health Statistics present data on the occurrence of hospitalisations for mental health

issues for the whole state according to the degree of remoteness. These data are shown in

Figure 3-10. The rate of hospitalisations has been consistently higher in the very remote

proportion of the population (which will include the WD landholders), with a noticeable spike in

the rate between 2o06 and 2009, which were the latter years of the ‘millennium drought’.

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0U

nem

plo

yment

Rate

(%

)

Balranald (A) Bourke (A) Brewarrina (A)

Broken Hill Carrathool Central Darling

Cobar Walgett Wentworth

Unincorporated NSW NSW

42908645/REP/0 43

Figure 3-10 Hospitalisations due to nervous and sense disorders by degree of remoteness

Source: http://www.healthstats.nsw.gov.au/ (accessed 18 February 2015)

3.6 Resource Condition Trends

3.6.1 Climatic trends

Annual rainfall for New South Wales (relative to historical records) for the period 1997-2014 is

shown in the individual maps comprising Figure 3-11. Data have been sourced from the

Queensland Government’s Longpaddock web site (www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au).

Seasonal conditions across the Western Division were average to well above average in the

period 1997 – 2000, apart from an area of rainfall deficit in the south-west of the region in

1998. However, the region experienced only average to well below average rainfall in 2001,

with extremely low rainfall throughout in 2002, generally acknowledged as the start of the

‘millennium drought’. From 2003 – 2009, although patches of above average rainfall did occur,

rainfall over most of the region was either average or below average, often substantially

below. Extremely low rainfall, comparable to 2002, occurred throughout most of the region in

2006. The ‘millennium drought’ was thus characterised by two years – 2002 and 2006 – in

which rainfall was extremely low across virtually all of the Western Division, followed by years

in which, apart from isolated areas, rainfall was not sufficient to allow any substantial recovery.

Very high rainfall occurred throughout the region in 2010, was widespread (with no areas of

below average rainfall) in 2011, and tapered off in 2012, although below average rainfall

occurred only in relatively small areas in the extreme south west. This period represented an

exceptional seasonal sequence, probably not experienced in the Western Division since the

mid-1970’s, and provided a major boost to the fortunes of the region’s pastoral businesses.

The years 2013 and 2014 saw a return to average or below average rainfall with some areas

of extreme rainfall deficit, especially in the north eastern part of the region.

While pasture growth is strongly influenced by the temporal distribution of rainfall and

preceding conditions as well as rainfall totals, by and large the availability of forage for

livestock followed the broad pattern described above.

http://www.healthstats.nsw.gov.au/

42908645/REP/0 44

Figure 3-11 New South Wales annual rainfall relative to historical records, 1997-2014

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42908645/REP/0 46

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3.6.2 Resource condition trends

3.6.2.1 Ground cover

(a) Extent of bare ground

Figure 3-12 (a & b) presents data for bare ground percentage for the Western and Lower

Murray-Darling Natural Resource Management regions, respectively, for the period 2002 –

2013. Data have been sourced from the Commonwealth Department of Agriculture, Fisheries

and Forestry (2015) (located at http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares). There were no data

available for 2014.

Figure 3-12 Bare ground % for (a) Western and (b) Lower Murray-Darling Natural Resource Management regions, 2000 – 2013. (Source: Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry)

No data 0-10%

10-20%

20-30%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

60-70%

70-80%

80-90%

90-100%

Main roads

Selected region

Locality

(a) Western NRM (b) Lower Murray-Darling NRM

Calendar year 2000

Calendar year 2001

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Calendar year 2002

Calendar year 2003

Calendar year 2004

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Calendar year 2005

Calendar year 2006

Calendar year 2007

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Calendar year 2008

Calendar year 2009

Calendar year 2010

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Calendar year 2011

Calendar year 2012

Calendar year 2013

As might be expected, bare ground percentage at these regional scales is dominated by the

climatic trends described above. In both regions, the percentage of bare ground was relatively

low in 2000, reflecting the generally good seasonal conditions prevailing from 1997. Bare

ground increased in 2001 and then remained high throughout the ‘millennium drought’. In the

Western CMA region, bare ground reduced substantially from 2010 to 2012, but was trending

upwards again in 2013. One non-landholder noted that from 2010-2012 there was an excellent

cover of perennial grasses between Bourke and Brewarrina, but in 2013 boundary fence

42908645/REP/0 53

differences started to become obvious as the seasonal conditions deteriorated. The grass

cover was said to be reminiscent of the 1950s and 1970s.

In the (former) Lower Murray-Darling CMA region the response in 2010 appears somewhat

muted compared to the Western NRM Region but, equally, the increase in bare ground

percentage in 2013 appears less marked.

Perhaps the most important feature of the data is the widespread occurrence, both spatially

and temporally, of levels of bare ground that greatly exceed the catchment target of 50%.

Overall, the seasonal trend is so dominant in these data that it would be difficult to attribute

any influence to the operation of the WEST 2000 Plus program.

(b) Analysis of ground cover – Western NSW

Bastin (pers. comm.) in collaboration with officers of the NSW Office of Environment and

Heritage, examined the state of IBRA regions and sub-regions in western NSW in terms of

ground cover (the complement of bare ground), and trends in ground cover, for the period

1992-2013 using the Dynamic Reference-Cover Method5 (Figure 3-13). Only very limited

ground data were available to validate these results, derived from analysis of remotely sensed

data, which must thus be treated with caution. His analysis indicated that:

1. In 1992 [relative to the reference cover];

– sub-IBRAs of the Mulga Lands were in a generally poorer state;

– the Broken Hill Complex was in a fair state;

– the Cobar Peneplain and Murray Darling Depression bioregions were in a slightly

better state (than the Broken Hill Complex);

– the various sub-regions of the Darling Riverine Plains were in a fair or improved state;

and

– the Riverina bioregion was in the best state, and particularly the Murrumbidgee (RIV2)

sub-IBRA.

2. Most sub-IBRAs improved in state between 2006 and 2013 (there was little change

between 1992 and 2006):

– exceptional rainfall in 2010 and 2011 no doubt assisted this recovery.

This analysis thus largely confirms the overriding influence, noted above, of seasonal

conditions following the ‘millennium drought’ on recent trends in ground cover across the

region.

5 Bastin G, Scarth P, Chewings V, Sparrow A, Denham R, Schmidt M, O’Reagain P, Shepherd R, and Abbot B. (2012). Separating

grazing and rainfall effects at regional scale using remote sensing imagery: a dynamic reference-cover method. Remote Sensing of Environment 121:443-447. doi:10.1016/j.rse.2012.02.021

42908645/REP/0 54

Ind

icato

r o

f C

han

ge

Indicator of State

Figure 3-13 State (1992) and change (1992-2013) of ground cover for IBRA sub regions in western NSW

All sub regions had ground cover below the reference level in 1992 but most showed positive change from 1992 to 2013. (Source: G Bastin, CSIRO, pers. comm.)

(c) Analysis of ground cover – Cobar pedeplain

An analysis of 21 Range Assessment Program sites in the Cobar Pedeplain bioregion6 (Figure

3-14) has shown a declining trend in average ground cover over a 22 year period. The relative

importance of seasonal conditions, invasive native scrub and unmanaged grazing pressure in

contributing to the decline cannot be established. However, the report noted that there has

been an increase in the feral goat population across western NSW since 1999 (in contrast to

relatively stable or declining trends in other states) with the NSW proportion of the Australian

feral goat population increasing from 48% in 2007 to 70% in 2010. (see commentary in

Section 3.3).

Although the trend in ground cover is downward there is much inter-annual variation due to

seasonal conditions and it is debateable if the difference in the peaks of 1990, 2000 and 2010

would all be statistically significant.

6 Western Catchment Management Authority (2012b)

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Figure 3-14 Trend in average pasture cover over 21 monitoring sites in the Cobar Peneplain bioregion, 1989 – 2011

Limited data are available for 2006-07 and 2009-10 (Reproduced from Western CMA 2012b)

3.6.2.2 Dust incidence

Figure 3-15 presents data on the relative frequency of dust event types from 1960 to 2011 for

seven locations in the Western Division. The data are sourced from the site

http://www.dustwatch.edu.au/ Information provided on the site indicates that the raw data have

been sourced from Bureau of Meteorology records with dust events categorised into 4 classes

in order of severity: Moderate Haze; Severe Haze; Moderate Dust Storm; and Severe Dust

Storm. The charts show the proportion of dust events (Dust events %) observed each year, in

each category. Note that the charts do not indicate the actual number of dust event in each

year, only the proportions of different event types.

Figure 3-15 Proportion of dust event types for seven locations in the Western Division, 1960 - 2011

Tibooburra

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

http://www.dustwatch.edu.au/

42908645/REP/0 56

Bourke

Broken Hill

Wilcannia

Cobar

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Ivanhoe

Mildura

Despite the ‘millennium drought’, the severity of dust events in the period from 2002 appears

to have reduced relative to the 1960s and 1970s at some locations. This trend seems evident

at Broken Hill, Wilcannia, Cobar and Bourke. At the latter two locations, the progressive

increase in invasive native scrub, rather than an increase in cover at ground level, may explain

the apparent trend. The effect of scrub encroachment in reducing the severity of dust, while

simultaneously reducing pastoral productivity, is widely acknowledged. At Tibooburra and

Mildura any recent trend towards reduced severity of dust events relative to the earlier period

is less marked though perhaps still discernible, while at Ivanhoe the trend appears to be

towards greater severity of dust events in recent years.

3.6.2.3 Other observations

Numerous anecdotal observations recorded during face to face interviews are relevant to the

assessment of trends in resource condition.

One non-landholder with long experience in the Western Division considered that the country

was in better condition (basically more ground cover) and was being better managed in the

current drought than was the case in the early 1980’s. This was evidenced by the prevalence

of fence line contrasts in cover (between more conservatively managed properties and their

neighbours) in the current situation than in the earlier period when the country appeared to be

uniformly bare. This observation was supported by another non-landholder interviewee with

lengthy (20 plus years) experience in the region, who considered that the condition of land has

improved over the last 25 years, that landholders are now much more aware of NRM issues,

and that the gap between production and NRM thinking has closed considerably. These views

are supported by observations made by team members during field work for this report which

indicated generally good levels of cover over extensive areas, despite the dry conditions,

although this situation was certainly not universal and areas of low cover or bare soil were also

observed. (Note though that areas of bare soil observed between Bourke and Brewarrina may

be attributable to the effects of flooding rather than grazing management).

42908645/REP/0 58

A number of other non-landholders also referred to an improved level of management during

the ‘millennium drought’, and the current drought, than had prevailed in earlier periods. Firstly

there was an increased willingness to sell stock as feed became scarcer, perhaps influenced

by the better sheep prices during the millennium drought.

One non-landholder with lengthy experience in the region considered that coming out of the

‘millennium drought’ there were more perennials in the groundcover, fewer poisonous plants,

fewer un-managed grazers and better quality stock (as in superior genetics) than had been the

case in previous droughts, and that stock losses amounted to only 10-15 per cent compared

with 25-75 per cent in the drought of the early 1990s. (It may be noted though that stocking

rates were probably considerably lower in the ‘millennium drought’ than in the early 1990s

following the collapse of the wool reserve price scheme).

Advice from an officer of Crown Lands indicated that only two properties were compulsorily

destocked during the ‘millennium drought’ and that many landholders voluntarily destocked

and maintained some residual ground cover. Only a ‘few’ properties were reduced to bare soil.

Many enquiries were received from landholders regarding the use of sacrifice paddocks which

was allowed under the circumstances.

Several non-landholder interviewees referred to a change in drought impact from lack of feed

to lack of water, and the implications of this change for land management and resource

condition. One of these recalled pastoralists who attended a drought assessment meeting in

Bourke in October 2013 indicating that their problem was lack of runoff into dams associated

with generally higher levels of ground cover. The extent to which this reflects an improved

level of resource management rather than simply a legacy of the high rainfall years from 2010-

2012 is debateable. (Another interviewee expressed the opinion that the water issues partly

reflected the silting up of tanks due to high rainfall in the post drought years). However, two

other interviewees also referred to the effect of increased ground cover on run-off into dams,

at least one of them attributing this to improved management. The fact that surface water now

tends to run out before feed was considered by two interviewees to be helping to improve land

condition in areas dependent on this source of water. One interviewee referred also to the

progress with capping and piping of artesian bores which is providing landholders with a much

improved capacity to control water and grazing pressure.

Several non-landholder interviewees observed that terms such as ‘ground cover’, ‘total grazing

pressure’ and ‘total grazing management’ had become part of the landholder language and

culture in recent years, a notable shift from the pre-WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus milieu.

Several interviewees considered that ground cover is now an important ‘indicator’ for

landholders and thus, presumably, contributes to management decision-making. Rotational

grazing (without implying any specific form) is now also a more discernible part of the grazier

lexicon suggesting that a shift from the traditional continuous grazing regime may be

occurring. This may well be facilitated by the much more widespread use of trap yards or self-

mustering facilities than pertained prior to WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus. Although these

facilities are often used simply for harvesting feral goats they also provide landholders with the

capacity to move stock between paddocks much more easily than previously and may thus

facilitate non-continuous grazing management.

In the southern part of the region there was universal agreement that the major effort in rabbit

ripping mounted with support from both the Lower Murray-Darling CMA, WEST 2000 and

WEST 2000 Plus had been very successful, coinciding as it did with the release of the rabbit

42908645/REP/0 59

calicivirus, in suppressing the rabbit problem for 7-8 years. Opinions expressed by both

landholders and non-landholders were that the success of this program had improved land

condition and increased pastoral productivity, allowed landholders to see a response to their

management decisions, freed up private funds for investment in property development (e.g.

fences, waters, rotational grazing) and reduced stock losses under dry conditions. Although

some interviewees expressed the view that the problem may be re-emerging it does seem

reasonable to conclude that an improvement in land condition resulted directly from this

activity and that improvements in the general standard of land management may well have

been facilitated.

A common observation by landholders who have converted wholly or in part to rangeland goat

production is that the condition of the land has improved relative to the previous sheep grazing

regime. This is at variance with the widely held view of goats as a highly destructive species

but by no means at variance with the scientific literature which records a number of attributes

of goats (e.g. wide dietary selection range) that could result in reduced pressure on forage

species, while also identifying attributes (e.g. high reproductive rate under poor seasonal

conditions) that could easily lead to adverse environmental outcomes under poor

management.7 Some of these observations may be associated simply with a reduction in the

cover of invasive native scrub (INS) due to goat browsing but others certainly relate to an

improvement in the density or cover of ground storey species.

3.7 Government services / grants trends

3.7.1 WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus

WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus collectively invested $30 million into the Western Division

through the period 1999-2005. Both the NSW and Commonwealth Governments have

continued to make significant investments in industry development, natural resource

management, biosecurity and emergency support through the following years. As shown in

Table 3-6, the NSW Government also provides relief from land rents and rates in times judged

to be difficult.

In discussion with landholders, it was evident that the array of direct funding opportunities over

the last two decades has been so large, and the sources of funds so diverse, that several of

those spoken to were confused about the nature and sources of funds they had received over

the years. This extended to uncertainty in some cases about whether the funds they had

received in the early 2000s were WEST 2000 or WEST 2000 Plus funds or from some other

source. For example, the on-line survey was only distributed to those who had been involved

in some aspect of WEST 2000 Plus. However, as shown in Figure 3-16, only 52% of

respondents reported that they had received WEST 2000 Plus assistance, with the nature of

the involvement and assistance shown in Figure 3-17.

In the latter figure only 59% of respondents noted an involvement in training, whereas nearly

all of those involved in WEST 2000 Plus attended at least one funded training event,

irrespective of other forms of involvement and assistance received. It is likely that many of

these events have been confused with other forms of training assistance operating at the

same time (e.g. Farmbiz). Further, there were no respondents to the survey who had been

involved in either property restructuring or large scale woody weed burning trials.

7 Hacker RB and Alemseged Y (2014). Incorporating farmed goats into sustainable rangeland grazing systems in southern Australia – a

review. The Rangeland Journal 36:25-33.

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Most landholders would seem to be ‘on the lookout’ for government assistance, with a

common view being that improvements to infrastructure and natural resources require some

level of input from government. One Rural Financial Counsellor interviewed for the evaluation

suggested the wide range of assistance provided through the ‘millennium drought’

(exceptional circumstances, interest rate subsidies etc.) could have meant that many

businesses were receiving about $50,000 per annum in total.

It is also evident that part of the work of Western LLS staff and Rural Financial Counsellors is

communicating funding opportunities to landholders and assisting landholders to access those

funds, including those available via Western LLS.

Figure 3-16 Support received from NSW Government sources (Survey results)

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Figure 3-17 Involvement in WEST 2000 Plus (Survey results)

Examples of more recent and current public investments focused on direct grants to

landholders are presented in following sections. These do not include the support provided by

both State and Commonwealth governments for training, community development, remote

education and health services etc.

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3.7.2 NSW Government

3.7.2.1 Catchment Management Authorities (to 2013)

Throughout the period 2005 to 2013 (after which it was replaced by the Western LLS), the

Western Catchment Management Authority (which covered about 70 per cent of the Western

Division) worked with local groups, organisations and individuals to promote a healthier

catchment in the longer term. The Incentives Program was the major means by which the

Western CMA encouraged and supported improvements in the environment. Both the

Commonwealth and NSW Governments contributed resources to this program. Over its life,

the Western CMA funded more than 750 projects, most of which involved direct grants to

landholders for on-ground works, which were matched or more than matched by landholder

funds. An example of the incentive grants provided to landholders is presented in Table 3-7 for

2009-10.

Table 3-7 Western CMA incentive grants to landholders, 2009-2010

Nature of grant Number of landholders

Value of the grants

Landscape management 47 $433,022

Pests 4 $16,985

High conservation value 33 $955,355

Sustainable agriculture 18 $113,471

Aquatic habitat 3 $114,340

Total 105 $1,633,173

Source: Western CMA (2010)

Over the 2011-2013 period, the Western CMA funded the following major projects.

$850,000 committed over two years to 30 applicants for native pasture recovery and

sustainable agricultural practices.

428 km of total grazing pressure fencing, and 24 watering points to assist with the

management of grazing pressure and encourage native pasture growth on a total of

138,006 hectares.

Forty trap yards erected to exclude goats and improve total grazing pressure

management on a total of 220,700 hectares.

More than $813,000 for riverine habitat and water quality improvements providing a total

of 47 off-river watering points to stop stock accessing waterways, and 126 km of riparian

fencing.

More than $600,000 to treat 68,000 hectares affected by invasive native scrub using a

range of techniques including chemical spot-treatment, chaining and raking.

More than $150,000 to control noxious weeds, including $100,000 to control Hudson

Pear on 10,919 hectares in the Lightning Ridge and Walgett areas.

More than $150,000 to undertake rangeland rehabilitation works on 6,800 hectares

using a combination of engineering works and restoration of native species.

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More than $24,000 to encourage sustainable agriculture through conservation farming.

Three machines are being converted to direct drill resulting in 10,000 hectares of

cropping land converted to no-till agriculture.

A further $350,000 for training to improve natural resource management skills and

protect the variety of plant and animal life (biodiversity) through the High Conservation

Value program.

3.7.2.2 Western Local Land Services

Western Local Land Services, which operates across the Western Division, commenced

operations in 2014 and has taken over all of the functions of the Western and Lower Murray-

Darling CMAs. Western LLS is also responsible for government regulation and programs in

biosecurity, animal health and emergency management.

Western LLS has continued to invest in direct grants to landholders for on-ground works with

the objective of improving natural resource outcomes. The 2014 Total Grazing Pressure (TGP)

Project committed $2.8 million to 58 landholders to erect 1005 km of TGP fencing, 42 trap

yards and undertake grazing management plans. The project objective is to ‘… increase

productivity, native vegetation and soil health by reducing total grazing pressure, particularly of

unmanaged goats’.8

Western LLS also administers grant schemes introduced in November 2013 for transport

subsidies, emergency water supplies, and a farm innovation fund (which provides up to

$250,000 per business at 2.5% over 20 years),the latter not being needs based.

3.7.3 Commonwealth Government

3.7.3.1 Rural Financial Counsellors

The Rural Financial Counselling Service NSW Central West Inc. is entirely funded by the

Commonwealth and provides a ‘no fee’ financial and business management service – on

demand – to landholders in the Western Division. Four of the organisation’s offices are based

in locations in the Western Division – Buronga, Bourke, Broken Hill and Walgett/Lightning

Ridge. In 2010-11, the Rural Financial Counsellors were each managing an average of 51

cases.

Three of the Rural Financial Counsellors in the Western Division were interviewed for the

evaluation. These three are each currently dealing with between 20 and 60 cases, and over

recent years have worked with between a third and a half of the properties in their regions. It is

evident from the interviews that the Rural Counselling Service, which was originally

established to assist businesses in trouble with adjustment strategies, has expanded its role in

recent years and now performs the functions that private consultants undertake in mixed

farming areas. The development and acceptance of this service was facilitated by WEST 2000

Plus which provided funding for the service and encouraged landholders to use the Rural

Financial Counsellors for a range of services.

Those counsellors spoken to for the evaluation provide a wide range of financial/ business

management services, including normal cash flow budgeting, preparation for annual finance

8 Sourced from http://western.lls.nsw.gov.au/our-region/key-projects/2014-total-grazing-pressure-program (accessed 4 February 2015)

http://western.lls.nsw.gov.au/our-region/key-projects/2014-total-grazing-pressure-program

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reviews, succession planning, evaluation of potential investments and assistance with

applications for government support (as in Western LLS grants). Not all of these fall within

their original charter. They also act as the first point of call in directing clients to other

commercial or government services appropriate to their needs. One Counsellor mainly helps

people with applications for government finance, cash flow budgeting and accessing

Centrelink assistance, noting that the focus needs to be on struggling businesses.

The Rural Counselling Service encourages the development of Property Management Plans

(PMP) at a level of complexity appropriate to the client. These plans are regularly reviewed in

conjunction with the Counsellor. They thus maintain this approach to business planning with a

high proportion of landholders in their area at a time when no government funded PMP

program is available.

It is clear that the Rural Financial Counsellors have a good profile in the region and are

respected and used by a lot of people for business management purposes. However, clients

have become used to a ‘free service’ which has probably prevented commercial consultants

becoming established. The Rural Financial Counsellors suggested that if a commercial fee-for-

service were applied to their operations their workload would seriously decline. It is suggested

that landholders in the Western Division have not developed the culture of being prepared to

pay for (i.e. invest in) professional management advice as compared to a significant proportion

of landholders in cropping and mixed farming regions around Australia.

3.7.3.2 Debt restructuring loans

Federally-funded Drought Concessional Loans administered by the NSW Rural Assistance

Authority (RAA) are available to landholders in the Western Division. These funds can cover

50% of total eligible debt up to a maximum of $650,000. The term of the loan is five years, with

interest only (4.5%) to be paid during that period (RAA pamphlet, obtained 16 December

2014).

3.7.3.3 Drought Recovery Loan

In December 2014, the Commonwealth Government announced targeted government

assistance for drought affected farmers in Queensland and NSW through a $100 million

Drought Recovery Concessional Loans Scheme. Under the scheme, farm businesses will be

able to apply for a loan of up to $1 million over 10 years at a variable concessional rate initially

set at 3.21% (Minister for Agriculture Press Release 2 December 2014).

3.8 Summary

The available information, although limited in detail, indicates that the economic condition of

the Western Division pastoral industry is better in 2015 than in the 1990s. This improvement

occurred despite the challenges imposed by the ‘millennium drought’ and the fluctuating wool

prices through the years since the mid-1990s. Clearly a relative shift from wool to meat

production, including Merino cross lamb production, Dorpers, cattle and more effective goat

management/ harvesting, has been a critical factor in the improvement. The financial situation

for nearly all businesses is acceptable, with few properties known to be in a vulnerable

position.

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Notwithstanding this improved situation, it is also evident that government is either required, or

chooses, to continue investing in industry development and emergency support in the Western

Division. Substantial sections of the industry expect this level of on-going support, especially in

relation to infrastructure developments to enhance grazing management. The Rural Financial

Counselling Service, which is providing a valued business and financial management service,

is also fully funded by government.

It is likely that the condition of the land resources of the region is at least as good and in some

cases better than before WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus. The causes for improvement are

varied, but the decline to almost zero in the rabbit population in areas previously heavily

infested, improved stock management, and a greater awareness of the importance of ground

cover as an indicator of resource condition are contributors. There are hazards to be

addressed, with feral goat numbers continuing to increase despite harvesting efforts, pressure

from increasing kangaroo numbers, and concern in some quarters that Dorper management

may not always be aligned with the needs of the country. Further INS infestations continue to

establish, and on-going vigilance in rabbit control is required.

The social environment may have deteriorated through this period, with reduced numbers of

people working in the pastoral industry, declining populations in the Western Division overall,

and the observations by those working with the pastoral industry that landholders are working

very long hours, hence limiting the opportunity for social networking. Further, there are in

some cases stresses associated with succession planning which can adversely affect family

well-being.

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4 THE OUTCOMES OF WEST 2000 / PLUS

4.1 Short and medium term outcomes (Levels 2 and 3 in Logframe in Table 2-1)

4.1.1 Adoption of management innovations – medium-term outcome

4.1.1.1 The value of subsequent government support – short-term outcome

Government support for the adoption of technologies demonstrated by WEST 2000 and

WEST 2000 Plus has been mediated mainly through the former Catchment Management

Authorities (CMA). An overview of this support has been provided in Section 3.7.2 and is

elaborated here more specifically in relation to the outcomes of WEST 2000 Plus.

(a) Total grazing Pressure

The former Western CMA focussed its initiatives particularly on the issue of total grazing

pressure (TGP) in pursuit of Catchment Target 1 of the Western Catchment Action Plan 2006-

16 i.e. ‘Quality and quantity of vegetation managed to maintain and/or improve designated

cover capable of preventing soil erosion (i.e. designated cover greater than or equal to 40%)’.

Within the Groundcover Incentive Program, landholders typically entered into a cost sharing

arrangement for construction or improvement of property infrastructure to better manage grazing

pressure with the objective of improving groundcover. In many cases, in practice this has also

enabled landholders to better control feral goats in order to achieve improved groundcover. This

infrastructure included trap yards, fencing of water points and mesh-type TGP fencing (WCMA

2012b).

From 2004 to September 2012, the Western CMA invested approximately $9.4 million in some

284 projects involving feral goat management (Table 4-1). An additional 95 projects

considered eligible were not supported due to a lack of funds. This number of projects

represents a substantial proportion of the approximately 1000 properties within the Western

Catchment. The level of investment equates to 31% of the total investment by both the WEST

2000 and WEST 2000 Plus programs across the entire Western Division and represents a

substantial boost to the adoption of the total grazing management technologies demonstrated

by WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus. Given the cost sharing nature of these projects, this

public investment should have leveraged at least as much private investment and, in light of

the experience of many of the landholders interviewed for this evaluation, probably

considerably more. No comparable information is available for expenditure on similar

programs by the former Lower Murray-Darling CMA.

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Table 4-1 Investment in feral goat management by the Western CMA from 2004 to September 2012

Western CMA Funded Projects: Feral Goat Management

Trap yards on waterpoints

Number of projects with trapyards * 108

Number of trapyards 352

Area of influence (hectares) 981,193

Funding amount $3,108,695

Total grazing pressure fencing

Number of projects with fencing * 176

Length of fencing (includes new & upgrade) (km) 3,270

Areas associated with fencing (hectares) # 834,572

Funding amount $6,253,581

Total funding amount $9,362,276

(* There may be overlap between these projects; # Only grazing management projects, not high conservation value or riparian management) (Source: WCMA 2012, Table 1)

Twenty four respondents to the online survey had received assistance to develop TGP

systems and were asked how the business had been affected as a result. A third of these

respondents noted improved ease of management, improved land condition and improved

profitability. Everybody identified a benefit from the assistance.

Figure 4-1 Effects of total grazing pressure management (Survey response)

(b) Enterprise Based Conservation

Following WEST 2000 Plus the Western CMA actively promoted the innovative Enterprise

Based Conservation (EBC) concept. Initially this involved extension of the ‘set aside’ program,

the more commonly adopted form of EBC under WEST 2000 Plus, in which land is destocked

and managed for conservation. Recently, however, Western LLS has supported the extension

Improved

profitability

34%

Improved ease of

management

33%

Improved land

condition

33% Had no effect on the

business

0%

Decreased

profitability

0%

Greater difficulty

of management

0%

Q46. Overall, how has the development of the TGP

system affected your business?

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of the ‘ground cover incentive’ option trialled for over 10 years on three Western Division

properties, initially under the auspices of WEST 2000 Plus and subsequently the Western

CMA. Under this option landholders received cash incentives related to their success in

maintaining ground cover above nominated thresholds. A framework for the extension of this

concept to a large scale trial is currently being developed by Agriculture NSW in a project

funded by the Western LLS. Non-landholders interviewed as part of this evaluation considered

that the concept of enterprise based conservation had been well embraced by pastoralists but

not by government. However, landholders questioned opportunistically during face-to-face

interviews on their attitude to a ground cover incentive scheme were divided in their views.

Some were supportive of the idea while others considered that the production benefits of

increased ground cover would make an incentive scheme irrelevant, with no further need for

the incentive payments.

(c) Invasive Native Scrub and rabbit control

No information is readily available on the extent of government support post WEST 2000 Plus

for the adoption or further application of technologies related to control of rabbits or INS (also

termed as woody weeds9).

Given that the concerted effort on rabbit control under both the Lower Murray-Darling CMA

and WEST 2000 Plus, combined with the spread of the rabbit calicivirus, has reduced the

rabbit problem to relatively minor (though probably increasing) proportions additional

expenditure in this area has probably been small.

Nineteen respondents to the survey indicated that they had received WEST 2000 Plus funds

for rabbit control. Three-quarters stated that the rabbit control actions had improved business

profitability and 95% stated that it had improved the land condition (see Figure 4-2).

Figure 4-2 Effects of rabbit control (Survey response)

9 The terms INS and woody weeds are used interchangeably in the report.

Greater difficulty of management

Decreased profitability

Had no effect on the business

Improved land condition

Improved ease of management

Improved profitability

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

Q50. Overall, how have the rabbit control actions affected your business?

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Similarly, it might be expected that public investment aimed at management of INS would be

minimal. At least two of the non-landholder interviewees indicated that attitudes towards

woody weeds are changing with pastoralists accepting that clearing is generally not

economically feasible and focussing instead on protecting open areas (a first principle of INS

management long advocated by NSW Government agencies) or the purchase of additional

land (particularly on the more productive margins of the region). A third interviewee

acknowledged that while INS is still increasing it is not the high profile issue it once was. On

the higher rainfall margins of the Western Division removal of INS and restoration of

productive native grassland is probably economically viable through mechanical clearing

followed by short term cropping and some form of rotational grazing management in the

regeneration phase (Alemseged et al.,2011), and is now permissible under native vegetation

regulations. Elsewhere, however, there appears to be no economic solution to this problem.

We were unable to identify most of the participants in the large scale management burning

demonstrations conducted under WEST 2000 Plus but the two properties that were visited had

vastly different experiences, one with a substantial reduction in INS that has persisted to the

present time and the other with a rapid return to an encroached state probably less productive

than before the burn. Much landholder experience, including some from projects conducted

under WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus has indicated that one-off INS control measures of

any sort are often long term failures with the final state, if anything, worse than the original.

Given the uncertainty attached to any return on investment in INS control it is not surprising

that, for the majority of the affected area, interest appears to have moved away from this

issue. Indeed, with the development of the rangeland goat industry INS may now be regarded

by some as an asset since goats are well able to utilise some of the common woody species

(though not others, raising the prospect of a long term shift to a totally unpalatable vegetation

community).

Figure 4-3 Effects of woody weed management (Survey response)

Thirteen survey respondents received funding to assist with woody weed control. Only half of

those stated that the woody weed management they implemented improved their ease of

management and only a third stated that it had improved profitability. Improved land condition

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%







Q51. Overall, how has woody weed management affected your

business?

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was reported by 12 of the 14 respondents while two respondents indicated that it had no effect

on the business (see Figure 4-3).

The recent advent of a carbon market has allowed some landholders with approved property

vegetation plans to capitalise on what was previously a liability by foregoing the right to clear.

Alternatively, landholders can capitalise on the carbon sequestration potential of INS under the

provisions for ‘Human Induced Regeneration of a Permanent Even-Aged Native Forest’ which

essentially involves removal of stock and allowing scrub regeneration to occur.

(d) Trends in R&D services

Apart from public funds directed to support Western Division landholders through the CMA’s

support, assistance is also provided through the provision of research and extension services

to the grazing industries through Agriculture NSW. The level of these services has been

declining over the long term although an increasing focus of government agencies on natural

resource management (i.e. public good R&D) has probably stabilised this trend to a degree.

Landholders interviewed for the evaluation were concerned about a perceived reduced

numbers of experienced people working ‘on the ground’ and the impact this may have on

relationships between landholder communities and government officers.

4.1.1.2 Adoption of profitable production systems – short term outcome

(a) Individual technologies

Trap yards

The most important physical innovations fostered by the WEST 2000 Plus investment related

to fencing and stock handling infrastructure. Use of trap yards or self-mustering facilities

located at water points was very limited in the Western Division prior to WEST 2000, despite

substantial development in Queensland and Western Australia, but has since been widely

adopted. Similarly the use of hinge joint or other fencing types aimed at control of total grazing

pressure, though familiar to Western Division landholders, expanded considerably as a result

of WEST 2000 Plus funding. These innovations laid the foundations for both changed

enterprises (see below) and better management of the natural resource base, and the WEST

2000 Plus program can claim most of the credit for this development.

Water Point Development

Under WEST 2000 Plus in particular, water point development was often incorporated in NRM

projects based around fencing and trap yards and, apart from a single water piping project of

$130,00010

on the Lachlan River, there was no major focus on water saving infrastructure.

Funding to assist individuals participate in the ‘Cap and Pipe the Bores Scheme’ was a

significant component of WEST 2000 ($1.4 M) but most of the funding for this activity was

drawn from other sources. WEST 2000 Plus has therefore not been credited with a large

influence in water point development even though this was no doubt often important in

allowing the benefits of TGP fencing and trap yards to be realised, or in otherwise improving

the capacity of landholders to manage grazing pressure.

10

Funding details from: Kuhner (2005)

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Respondents to the online survey who had received assistance for NRM activity, including that

associated with watering points, were asked how the water supply relocation had affected the

business. The results are shown in Figure 4-4.

Figure 4-4 Effect of water supply relocation (Survey response)

The contribution of Training Initiatives

It can be reasonably assumed that training opportunities provided by the program were useful

in assisting the widespread adoption of information technology and computer use but other

drivers could be readily identified that would have promoted these trends independently of

WEST 2000 Plus. The influence of the program has therefore been rated as only small to

moderate. Program – funded training had a large influence in changing the attitudes of

participating landholders towards gazing management, resulting in the adoption of some form

of non-continuous grazing. Grazing management demonstrations funded by the program, such

as the Western Total Grazing Pressure project, would also have had some influence.

However, while interest in non-continuous grazing appears to be widespread the actual extent

of adoption is considered more limited (in some parts of the region the view that anything other

than continuous grazing is not feasible due to the impact of kangaroos on destocked paddocks

appears to be still strong).

Table 4-2 provides a summary of the innovations reported to the evaluation team during

interviews and via the survey responses. The rating of ‘extent of adoption’ and ‘likely influence

of WEST2000 and WEST2000 Plus’ has been made by the evaluation team on the basis of

the data collected and their expert knowledge.







0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Q48. Overall, how has the water supply relocation affected your

business?

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Table 4-2 Individual technologies adopted by landholders in the Western Division since 2005

Innovation Extent of adoption*

Likely influence of

WEST 2000/West 2000 Plus** Comment

1 Information technology (mobile phones, email, Internet access)

W S Farm-wide satellite trial (WEST 2000) and training opportunities under WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus assisted but other drivers probably more important.

2 Total Grazing Pressure fencing (Hingejoint, Weston, including electric fencing)

W H A major focus of the WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus programs

3 Trap yards, self-mustering yards (located at watering points)

W H A major focus of the WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus program.

4 Drought feed lotting W S Not subject to direct promotion by WEST 2000 Plus.

5 Personal computers and use of business or farm management software packages

W M

WEST 2000 Plus training opportunities were important; introduction of GST forced adoption.

6 Solar pumps M N Not subject to direct promotion by WEST 2000 Plus.

7 Gyrocopters for mustering M N Not subject to direct promotion by WEST 2000 Plus.

8 Water point infrastructure (e.g. bore capping and piping) M S

WEST 2000 funding ($1.4 M) supported the Cap and Pipe the Bores scheme which was the major source of funds.

9 Non-continuous grazing (in various forms including Holistic Management, Grazing for Profit; turning off water in destocked paddocks)

M H

Training supported by WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus was influential.

10 Walk-over weighing, auto drafting, telemetry (e.g. remote control of gates or pumps)

L N

Not subject to direct promotion by WEST 2000 Plus.

11 Motion activated cameras (pest monitoring, trespass)

L N Not subject to direct promotion by WEST 2000 Plus.

12 Improvement for WHS compliance (e.g. improved shearing plant; lifting machines for goats and dorpers, EPERBS)

L N

Not subject to direct promotion by WEST 2000 Plus.

13 Low stress stock handling L S Training opportunities may have assisted

14 Erosion control works along fence lines

L N Not subject to direct promotion by WEST 2000 Plus.

15 Stock marketing (KLM stock marketing method)

L S Not subject to direct promotion by WEST 2000 Plus; some training opportunities may have been provided.

16 Subdivision of paddocks L S

Possibly some influence through the Western TGP project.

(Note: adoption of some of these technologies may have commenced prior to 2005) (* subjectively assessed as widespread- W, moderate - M, or limited - L. ** subjectively assessed as high -H, moderate -M, small-S, Nil-N)

While WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus thus contributed substantially to some important and

widespread innovations, it is notable from Table 4-2 that considerable innovation has occurred

which was either not influenced at all by WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus or for which the

influence of the program was small.

(b) Alternative enterprises

The major innovations supported by WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus, as outlined above,

have substantially underpinned the widespread adoption of alternative enterprises in the

Western Division, particularly the move away from traditional Merino sheep for wool

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production to rangeland goats and Dorper sheep for meat production. This has been a

fundamental change in the region and while pressure for alternative enterprises was present

well before WEST 2000, originating in the collapse of the wool reserve price scheme in the

early 1990s and the cost pressures of wool production, WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus

were able to support the main alternatives that emerged from this crisis at a critical time in

their development.

Several of the landholders interviewed considered that the assistance provided by WEST

2000 Plus to the development of the rangeland goat industry and, probably to a lesser extent,

the Dorper industry, to be one of its most significant contributions. The importance of goats in

providing an income stream for landholders in the aftermath of the wool collapse was

emphasised by many of those interviewed. A few quotes will illustrate the situation:

‘We would not have been here but for goats’ (landholder)

‘Goats have produced a viable business’ (landholder)

‘Without external assistance people may not have been able to get into managed goats’ (non-

landholder)

Numerous landholders emphasised the importance of the timing of the WEST 2000 Plus

funding, coming as it did at a time of economic hardship for many, and the ‘massive boost’ (to

quote a landholder) which this gave them to get to a position of profitability from which many

have built a long term future for both themselves and their families. One landholder noted that

the profitability of goats and Dorpers has allowed young people to come back onto the land

which was not previously possible for many (a comment supported by some of the non-

landholders interviewed).

While these alternative livestock enterprises have been the major legacy of the program,

support from WEST 2000 Plus also assisted the establishment of successful farm tourism

enterprises for a few landholders. Two of these who were interviewed identified the

opportunity to ‘showcase’ pastoral operations to city visitors as among the benefits of the

development, quite apart from the economic return. Some alternative enterprises that received

support from the program did fail but a substantial number of the 87 applicants who received

funding can reasonably be assumed to have secured a better economic future as a result.

About 25% (n=15) of all survey respondents received a grant to assist in the establishment of

a new or alternative enterprise on their property. Figure 4-5 below shows the distribution of

enterprises that were established by 12 respondents. Additionally, one respondent noted

having established a native timber harvesting and marketing business while another

established ponding banks. However, given that these responses to the survey were

anonymous, it was not possible to obtain further information on their experiences with these

ventures.

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Figure 4-5 Alternative enterprises established as a result of WEST 2000 Plus funding (Survey response)

Seventy per cent of these respondents indicated the new enterprise had improved the land

condition and improved the ease of management of the land (see Figure 4-6). Twelve of 13

respondents stated that it had improved profitability. One respondent who had established a

meat sheep enterprise noted that the new enterprise has “improved quality of life – able to do

more with less”. The respondent who had established a timber business noted; “the goats

have been of great benefit in terms of both profitability and sustainability but we had great

difficulty in finding reliable markets for our timber”.

Figure 4-6 Effect on the business in establishing a new enterprise (Survey response)

Three quarters of respondents have been encouraged by the experience of establishing the

new enterprise and will continue to invest in expansion. Twelve of thirteen respondents stated

that the new enterprise has improved their long-term prospects. Table 4-3 shows how

respondents rated the effect of the new enterprise on the business by the type of new

enterprise commenced.

2

5

2

3

Establish meat goats

Establish meat sheep

Establish tourism venture

Establish agricultural venture

Establish aquaculture venture

Harvest feral goats

Horticulture

Develop feedlots

Number of Respondents

Q32. What did you obtain WEST 2000 Plus alternative enterprise grant funds to do?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Other (please specify)







Q33. How has the new enterprise affected your business?

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Table 4-3 Benefit of new enterprise (by enterprise type)

Table Improved profitability

Improved ease of

management

Improved land

condition

Had no effect on

the business


Greater difficulty of

management


Establish meat goats 2 1 1 – – – 1

Establish meat sheep 5 4 4 – – – 1

Establish tourism venture 2 1 1 – – – –

Establish agricultural venture – – 1 – – – –

Establish aquaculture venture – – – – – – –

Harvest feral goats 3 2 2 – – – –

Horticulture – – – – – – –

Develop feedlots – – – – – – –

(c) Impact on natural resources

Respondents to the online survey were asked to rate how the condition of their land had

changed over the last 15 years. Over half thought it had improved and one-third thought it had

remained much the same. Six respondents considered the land condition had worsened over

the last 15 years. These six relate to businesses located in the LGAs of Wentworth, Walgett,

Broken Hill, Wilcannia and Bourke.

The widespread adoption of innovations relevant to the management of total grazing pressure,

outlined above, has given Western Division pastoralists, on the one hand, probably

unprecedented capacity to manage the natural resource base in a sustainable way. Further,

the focus of management attention appears to have shifted perceptibly towards a more

balanced emphasis on NRM as well as production outcomes, as indicated by many of the

(particularly non-landholder) interviewees. The trends in resource condition described in

Section 3.5.3 suggest that this combination of infrastructure improvement and attitudinal

change may in fact be producing non-uniform, but nevertheless perceptible, improvements in

resource condition.

On the other hand, however, the widespread shift towards rangeland goat and Dorper

enterprises raises serious concerns for future NRM outcomes because of the hardiness of the

animals, their generalist feeding habits, and their capacity to survive and reproduce under

poor seasonal conditions. Given these attributes, imbalances between forage supply and

demand could develop rapidly if turnoff is not maintained or other arrangements established to

maintain grazing pressure at sustainable levels (Hacker et al., 2014; Alemseged et al., 2014).

Concern for this aspect of the new enterprises has been expressed by both landholders and

non-landholders and examples of heavily utilised country grazed by Dorpers or goats are

known to many. Further, as described in Section 3.3, the total goat population in the Western

Division is increasing, despite the more effective harvesting efforts of landholders.

4.1.1.3 The role of landholder networks – short term outcome

(a) Young Farmer activities

Among the non-landholders who offered an opinion on the value of the Young Farmer

initiatives of WEST 2000 Plus (only one landholder was questioned) there was universal

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agreement that these were very positive – ‘brilliant’ in the words of one consultant interviewed.

However, there was also general agreement that the benefit of the network so established

(e.g. the ‘rotating farm tour’), and maintained for some time, has now largely faded as young

people have assumed more family and/or management responsibilities. One interviewee

expressed the view that the culture of learning stimulated among young farmers by these

activities was sometimes frustrated by the inability to implement new ideas at home, to the

point in some cases of young people leaving the Western Division. This interviewee

considered that a lack of emphasis on succession planning as part of the young farmer

activities was a major weakness.

A number of questions were included in the online survey regarding the Young Farmer’s

initiative to which seven people responded. They were variously involved in the Young

Farmers Forum, received assistance with succession planning and business planning, or

received a grant for farm entry costs. Four of the seven respondents noted that the

involvement in Young Farmer’s initiatives ‘helped a lot’.

Survey respondents who had indicated their involvement in various Young Farmers activities

were asked how well the networks established through these activities persisted. While the

results apply to only seven respondents they point to a fading of established networks, as

shown in Figure 4-7, which confirms the non-landholders’ comments

Figure 4-7 Persistence of Young Farmer networks (Survey response)

(b) Landcare and other networks

The Landcare movement in the Western Division, in keeping with other regions, is

considerably reduced compared to the level of activity in the early 1990s. Nevertheless, a

small number of active groups do remain some of whose members no doubt obtained funding

through WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus. It is likely that these groups served as conduits for

the transmission of landholders’ experiences with innovative developments supported by the

program. It is also likely that other formal networks, for example, Bestprac played a similar

role.

They have remained in place and are doing very well

They have remained in place but are not accessed as

much as they could be

Other networks for young farmers have taken their

place

They have faded away

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Q26. How well have young farmer networks established through WEST 2000

Plus persisted?

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Access to external networks is clearly seen as important to landholders in the region. In

response to a question asking about involvement in online and face-to-face networks,

respondents to the online survey identified a wide range of groups as shown in Figure 4-8.

‘Other’ networks in which respondents were involved included the Goat Industry Council, NSW

Ambulance Volunteers, Wild Dog Destruction Board, Local Land Services, Regional

Development Australia, Australian Rangelands Society and the Stipa Native Grass

Association. In discussion with some landholders, the Broken Hill School of the Air was

described as being an important social network across much of the west and south west of the

Western Division.

Figure 4-8 Involvement in networks (Survey response)

(c) Influence of landholder projects and demonstrations

Many of the landholders interviewed, particularly those who had been funded to implement

infrastructure related to TGP, or to move into alternative livestock enterprises, felt that their

experience would enable others to adopt the same innovations with confidence. It appears

that some of these projects were locally influential in encouraging others to apply for funding,

or to engage in similar development independently. Non-landholders interviewed commonly

stressed the importance for pastoralists of practical demonstration in encouraging the adoption

of new technology. The many projects funded by WEST 2000 Plus provided a large number of

these demonstrations whose value in this respect was probably less dependent on any formal

‘field day’ activity than on ‘over the fence’ observation. One non-landholder interviewee

considered that such demonstrations gave landholders ‘permission for innovation’ in a

‘judgemental’ culture.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Biosecurity group ( weed, pest or disease

control)

Landcare group

Farm management group

On-line organisation

NSW Farmers

Pastoralists Association of West Darling

Water Users Association

State Emergency Service group

Rural Fire Service group

Local Government authority


Q18. What networks (on-line and face-to-face) are you involved in?

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4.1.1.4 Overview of adoption of management innovations – short to medium term outcome

Substantial innovation in relation to infrastructure can be directly credited to the WEST 2000

and WEST 2000 Plus programs. This investment, together with direct support for development

of alternative industries, particularly alternative livestock enterprises, has supported (though

not initiated) a major shift in the economic structure of the Western Division pastoral industry.

As confirmed by commentary elsewhere in this report, many landholders are now undoubtedly

in a more viable position than was the case before the advent of WEST 2000. The potential for

improved management of the natural resource base has been enhanced by this investment,

and by apparently changed landholder attitudes. There is some limited evidence that this may

be translating into detectable outcomes (e.g. local reductions in the severity of dust events)

over the long term, though not universally across the region. However, the new enterprises

also represent a potential threat to sustainable resource use because of the biological

characteristics of the breeds involved and require continuing improvement in the standard of

NRM if the potential gained from the WEST 2000 Plus investment is to be fully realised.

4.1.2 Market driven adjustment – medium-term outcome

4.1.2.1 Changes in property size and number – short-to medium term outcome

(a). Property numbers in the Western Division

While it may seem a simple matter to obtain data on changes over time in the number and

size distribution of properties in the Western Division we have been unable to compile any

comprehensive data on this topic, or even to come to an unambiguous figure for the total

number of properties at any time. The reason is that the basic unit of land administration and

data recording within NSW Trade and Investment, Crown Lands is the Western Lands Lease

(WLL) rather than the property. Any property may comprise only one or a number of WLLs and

the databases within which lease data are stored have been established for administrative

purposes rather than to answer questions of a research nature such as those of interest to the

present study. Indeed, since WLLs are issued for a wide variety of ‘purposes’ (see Appendix

B) and leases for different purposes can occur within the same ‘property’ it is difficult to be

confident that numbers of properties in any broad category (e.g. pastoral or grazing) would be

consistent between determinations without strict definitions.

Hassall and Associates Pty Ltd (1982) put the number of properties in the Western Division at

1,190 excluding those with a Rental Carrying Capacity of < 2,000 sheep. URS (2005) state the

number as 1,822 in 2000 and 1,650 in 2012, presumably including the smaller properties

excluded by Hassall and Associates. Western Lands Advisory Council (2008)11

state a figure

of 1,600 properties and Crown Lands, Dubbo (2014) provided a figure of ‘approximately 1,700

properties’ corresponding to 4,280 pastoral leases. The Hassall and Associates report divided

properties into ‘Rental Carrying Capacity’ increments of 1,000 sheep. Based on consultation

with Crown Lands, Dubbo it appears impossible at the present time, without considerable

effort, either to reconstruct anything approximately comparable to this representation of the

industry structure, or to produce data precisely comparable with the URS figures. A range of

1,600-1,700 properties encapsulates the most recent estimates from all sources but no

definitive statement can be made regarding the change over time in either property number or

size distribution for the region as a whole.

11

Western Lands Advisory Council (2008). Communiqué 6th August 2008. Western Division Newsletter No. 124, p 12.

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A crude comparison with the industry structure provided by Hassall and Associates may be

made by transforming data provided by survey respondents in response to Question 3 – ‘How

much land are you currently managing? (includes land held in own right and land sub-leased

or otherwise managed)’. The area classification was <10,000 ha, 10,001-20,000 ha, 20,001-

30,000 ha, 30,001 – 40,000 ha and >40,000 ha.

Figure 4-9 Extent of managed land (Survey response)

Sixty (60) respondents answered this question. These area ranges were converted to ranges

of Dry Sheep Equivalents based on recommended carrying capacities for leases of varying

size provided by Crown Lands, Dubbo. Table 4-4 presents the comparative figures for

intervals which match as closely as possible the bands that can be constructed from the

Hassall and Associates report. To ensure comparability, percentages for both data sets have

been reworked excluding properties with a carrying capacity of less than 3,000 (since

properties with rental carrying capacity of less than 2,000 were excluded from the original

1982 percentages).

Table 4-4 Comparative industry structures (Survey response)

% of properties

Carrying Capacity

Hassall &

Associates

1982

Survey

respondents

2015

3001 – 5000 63 51

5001 – 7,000 23 12

>7,000 14 37

Note: Derived from Hassall and Associates (1982) and survey respondents (2015). Carrying capacity increments are exact for the Hassall and Associates data and approximate for the survey data; carrying capacities calculated from survey data are Dry Sheep Equivalents, Rental Carrying Capacities from the Hassall and Associates report are not well defined.

Less than

10,000

hectares

13%

10,001 to

20,000 hectares

27%

20,001 to

30,000 hectares

20%

30,001 to

40,000 hectares

10%

More than

40,000 hectares

30%

Q3. How much land are you currently managing? (includes

land held in own right and land sub-leased or otherwise

managed)

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The data suggest that relative to the total population in 1982 the structure of that segment of

the population that responded to the 2015 survey was strongly skewed towards larger

holdings. Since the survey was sent only to individuals who participated in the WEST 2000

Plus program this may indicate that larger landholders were more likely to take advantage of

the opportunities provided by the program. However, to an unknown extent it may also

indicate that a some restructuring has taken place over the period of 33 years, a small

proportion of which could have been assisted either directly or indirectly by the WEST 2000

and WEST 2000 Plus programs.

Anecdotal evidence indicates that considerable market driven adjustment has been occurring

over the long term, but in an episodic manner. One interviewee suggested that 5-10% of

landholders left the pastoral industry in the early 1990’s after the collapse of the wool price

support scheme. A Western Division pastoralist expressed the view to one of the project team

in the early days of WEST 2000 that much of the structural adjustment required in relation to

the economic conditions of the day had already occurred, before the start of the program.

However these observations need to be tempered by the indication from Table 3-3 that

turnover rates of around 5 per cent per annum are to be expected for pastoral leases.

(b) The current situation - amalgamation and fragmentation

Today, both amalgamation and fragmentation of land holdings in the Western Division appear

to be occurring. Advice from Crown Lands, Dubbo indicates that considerable fragmentation is

apparent in the Cobar-Byrock area, the area probably most affected by INS encroachment,

and is associated with a high level of absenteeism (i.e. lessees who do not live on the lease)

although quantitative data on this issue are not available. Absenteeism in most Rangeland

Management Officer Districts is thought to be about 10% but is reckoned at 20-25% in the

Cobar and Bourke districts (S. Hawke, pers. comm.) where leases are being bought for non-

pastoral purposes (e.g. as a base for a contracting business, for weekend hunting, lifestyle). In

other areas, considerable corporate investment is occurring, resulting in the aggregation of

large holdings. However, this trend is also occurring in family businesses – several of those

interviewed have leased other properties to expand their businesses – with these leased

properties having no permanent residents, but still held by people who have left the region.

Others have purchased additional land in recent years. Again, no quantitative data on the

magnitude of this aggregation is readily available.

Considerable concern was expressed by some landholders interviewed for this evaluation

(and some government staff) about both aspects of property transfer. Their perception is that

where leases are being sold for non-pastoral purposes and/or absenteeism is high the

standard of resource management is considered to be reduced, infrastructure is allowed to

deteriorate and management often involves little more than the occasional harvesting of feral

goats. Where large aggregations of leases have been established, social capital is sometimes

reduced as economies of scale are sought in relation to labour. In some cases, though not all,

these large aggregations are thought to be associated with a severely reduced level of

environmental care – as in inappropriate management of stocking rates, and inattention to

feral animal numbers.

(c) Succession planning and action

Succession planning was acknowledged by a number of interviewees to be a major issue for

many families in the Western Division. Concerns relate to (i) resistance in some businesses to

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initiate succession planning, (ii) family breakdown as a result of poor succession processes,

and (iii) difficulty in obtaining dedicated succession planning assistance. Reference has

already been made to the expressed opinion that the lack of a succession planning

component was a deficiency of the Young Farmer activities. An increase in business

profitability associated with the transition to Dorper or rangeland goat enterprises may have

eased the succession issue for some (as noted by one landholder, this has allowed some

young people to return to the land, probably through the purchase of additional property,

where this would not otherwise have been possible) but the issue is still apparently very

significant for many.

The fundamental issue appears to be that children often cannot afford to buy out parents at

the price they need to establish themselves in retirement. A scenario painted by one Rural

Financial Counsellor is that this can result in the issue being left unresolved, some of the

younger generation moving away and larger organisations or external owners buying up

properties at prices unrelated to the productive capacity of the land, in this ‘vacuum’. The

result is that property is placed beyond the reach of neighbours, absenteeism increases, the

social fabric is reduced, the local economy is deprived of local spending, and adverse

environmental or animal welfare consequences may follow. Although it is not possible to

obtain hard data, these points were made by several of the landholders and others

interviewed.

4.1.2.2 Business planning and strategies – short-term outcome

Training offered by WEST 2000 Plus has had at least a moderate influence in promoting the

widespread adoption of home computers and business management packages, and a smaller

influence on the widespread adoption of a range of information technologies (see Table 4-2).

In both these areas, other factors including general societal trends were obviously important

drivers of change, but WEST 2000 Plus, particularly through training grants, was able to

capitalise on and facilitate these trends.

The role of landholder networks in facilitating adoption of technological change has been

discussed in Section 4.1.1.3 above.

The important role now played by Rural Financial Counsellors (albeit ‘unofficially’) in providing

business planning advice directly to landholders, and acting as a first point of call in directing

landholders to other services, has been outlined in Section 3.4.2. The extent of contact which

these individuals have with the landholder community - up to 50 per cent of landholders in

some districts contacted on a personal basis over a 12 month period – is remarkable and far in

excess of the level of contact likely to be achieved by other agencies, especially given the

reduction in services within NSW Government agencies servicing the Western Division in

recent years. It appears that RFCs are more than filling this void, at least in relation to

business management advice, and advice about various forms of government support, and

are redressing the market failure identified by some non-landholder interviewees in relation to

the provision of advisory services to pastoralists.

The current level of contact between RFCs and landholders is even more remarkable when

one considers that in the early years of the service a visit to the Counsellor was perceived, to

some extent, as a sign of failure and attracted a degree of odium. It is indicative of a changing

culture, for which WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus can reasonably claim a good deal of

credit (through training grants , for example) that the opposite now seems to be the case.

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Many landholders now appear to have a heightened appreciation of the benefits of external

input into their management decisions.

4.1.2.3 Overview of market-driven adjustment – short to medium term outcome

The analysis of how well the market is managing necessary adjustment to changing enterprise

needs and commodity prices is hampered by the inadequacy of the available hard data. It

would seem that considerable structural adjustment occurred in the wake of the collapse of

wool prices in the 1990s, before WEST 2000 commenced. Since that time property turnover

has occurred at an annual rate of about 5%, with some trend towards larger property sizes (as

revealed by a modest reduction in property numbers in the WD). However, this general

observation is confounded by the purchasing activities of a few who are amassing very large

holdings in parts of the region, noticeable levels of absenteeism, and fragmentation in the

smaller properties in the INS area of the Cobar sub-region. While a trend towards larger

operations (compared to 1982) appears to be marked among participants in WEST 2000 Plus

it is not possible to determine the extent to which this is typical of the region or the degree to

which it may have been influenced by the program.

Adjustment is likely to be hampered by reported problems with poor succession planning

within family properties, and perceived inflated land prices particularly in more favoured areas.

The demand for succession planning assistance is being felt by Rural Financial Counsellors

who are providing a service in this area. They are also assisting many businesses in short-

and long-term business planning, often with the aim of helping them expand within the region.

In summary, it is likely that while property turnover is generally adequate, structural adjustment

to address operating challenges is uneven across the region.

4.1.3 More profitable businesses – medium term outcome

4.1.3.1 Property size and scale – short-to medium term outcome

(a) Trends in the area managed

The WEST 2000 Plus program funded 36 property amalgamations, which was a small

proportion of an estimated 1800 businesses at that time (URS 2005). As noted above, there

are now approximately 1,600 to 1,700 pastoral businesses in the Western Division, including a

few very large aggregations. However, there are also known to be many smaller properties

which are not being amalgamated into large entities. The online survey for this evaluation

found 72% of survey respondents have not increased the area being managed over the last

10 years, with 22% having increased the area managed (see Figure 4-10).

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Figure 4-10 Change in the area of land managed over the last 10 years.

The current situation in the western and south western parts of the region is summed-up in the

following non-landholder statement.

There are not many property transfers, and most of those involve transfers within families and

between neighbours. Amalgamations within families and between neighbours are resulting in

properties becoming larger. At the other end of the market there are ‘lifestyle blocks’ of

16,000 ha and less that are often rundown and change hands. There are people stuck in the

area who have unsaleable properties.

The rate of property transfer – about 5% per cent per annum since 2004 – has not resulted in

major property build-ups across much of the region. Overall, in the period since WEST 2000

Plus finished, the total number of pastoral businesses in the Western Division has probably

declined by about 10 per cent, although it has not been possible to be more accurate about

this change. While some property build up is occurring, anecdotal advice is that it is limited by

the price and availability of land. More amalgamation may be occurring through leasing

activity, where established businesses are leasing other, often smaller properties elsewhere in

the region. This situation was encountered with several of landholders interviewed.

One reason for the lack of market driven structural adjustment is the high price for land,

particularly in ‘well-held’ areas in more favourable environments. Further, most people are

intending to settle children into the business, and the improved returns per hectare resulting

from Dorpers and goats may have reduced the push to seek economies of scale. As an

alternative to expanding within the Western Division, some businesses have diversified into

property outside the Western Division in safer climatic areas.

However, it is apparent from interviews with non-landholders that an unknown percentage of

properties are experiencing succession planning issues and in some cases female partners

are “sick of it” and would like to go. There are known to be considerable numbers of broken

marriages (although numbers cannot be quantified, which prevents comparison with society

averages), and so people in this situation “are on the edge”. The principal sources of this

Larger

22%

The same

72%

Smaller

6%

Q4. Has the area of land managed changed over the

past 10 years?

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distress include the difficulty of providing education in remote areas, lack of retail services

available in larger communities, social isolation and a general desire for change.

An exception to the relatively low rate of property turnover is the ‘churning’ of leases on the

Cobar pedeplain. This could have resulted from a failure to understand the ecology of the

region, which should be among the best pastoral country in the Western Division given its

relatively high rainfall but is in fact among the worst because of the woody weed-fire situation,

and may have been excessively subdivided because of unrealistic expectations of its capacity.

There is probably little point in attempting to solve this problem. The region has been subject

to a number of programs over the years which have failed to resolve the issue (Cobar-Byrock

Rehabilitation Scheme, CMA initiatives). To a large extent the market is sorting it out with

many leases changing purpose to allow alternative uses. There is no justification for further

intervention except perhaps for providing assistance to establish acceptable boundary fencing

(without which lease transfer will not be approved) to ensure that properties can be sold and

the market is allowed to operate.

In summary, WEST 2000 Plus had little effect on property size and scale, at the time of the

program and subsequently.

(b) Better property infrastructure

WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus provided considerable assistance (approximately $1.2

million) to people seeking to improve their property infrastructure, either to introduce new

livestock types (goats, meat sheep), implement TGP management, or address specific

environmental problems. Most of the funding was associated with fencing, water distribution

and trap yards.

The respondents to the survey and those landholders interviewed overwhelmingly agreed that

the assistance provided was of long-term benefit, in particular that which enabled them to run

Dorpers, and harvest or manage goats more effectively.

Grants often acted as seed funding that leveraged much larger amounts of private capital

even beyond the WEST 2000 Plus funding ratio and set individuals on the road to new

enterprises, further development or allowed businesses to achieve viability and be self-

sustaining – as indicated by these quotes from some of the landholders interviewed

personally.

‘Without the money we’ve had most of this would not have occurred’

‘.. would not have started the project without the grant’

‘WEST 2000 Plus funding was a taster… that stimulated greater investment’

‘$30,000 grant that allowed fencing and initiation of cell grazing has resulted in a further

$150,000 personal investment’

‘… crucial importance of WEST 2000 Plus funds to ‘kick-start’ change in management’

‘initial seed funding has attracted much more personal investment (grant provided 12 km of

hinge joint fencing, now have 160 km’

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‘…now put 25% of goat income into fencing; have extended TGP fencing to other paddocks

apart from the original W2K+ paddock’

Those non-landholders interviewed stated that WEST 2000 Plus was good for those people

who received support, particularly because there were a lot of options for assistance. People

achieved good returns from the assistance provided in fencing and water developments.

Without external assistance, landholders may not have been able to get into managed goats,

or obtain better control of the feral animals. The training grants were also beneficial in helping

people to think about change and the opportunities available.

The availability of grant funding for capital investment was timely. It came when many

landholders were suffering drought and/or a wool profitability crisis and the funding provided a

significant benefit to some participants. It provided a boost to confidence and allowed

landholders to come into “better times”, feeling positive that they had some new capital

investment.

Figure 4-11 Effect of WEST 2000 Plus on the farm business (Survey response)

The provision of assistance to establish the goat industry, and probably dorpers too, may be

one of the most important contributions made by WEST 2000 Plus, as shown by the

statements below.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%


Made things worse

Did not have any effect

Helped me to develop new skills

Provided me with information to assist my business

Helped me to develop a new enterprise

Helped me improve the country

Provided new infrastructure

Helped me to build new management skills

Q7. How has your involvement with WEST 2000 Plus affected your farm

business?

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‘Without external assistance people may not have been able to get into managed goats’

‘Initial seed funding started entire shift to goats - would not have been here but for goats’

‘Goats have produced a viable business’

Most of the landholders responding to the survey continued property developments after the

completion of WEST 2000 Plus, as shown in Figure 4-12, with the drivers for these changes

shown in Figure 4-13. One financier interviewed noted that a lot of his clients have done / are

doing property improvements with funds from Western LLS advanced on a dollar for dollar

basis. A lot of these improvements have complementary objectives – with the ‘landholder

objective’ being increasing the return from goats and dorpers, and with the ‘government

objective’ being improved management of total grazing pressure. There is some degree of

expectation that government funds will contribute to the cost of infrastructure improvements.

This is shown by the continued take-up of funds for TGP infrastructure through the CMAs (until

2013) and subsequently through Western LLS (see Section 3.7).

The importance of sound infrastructure for effective management of Dorpers and goats was

emphasised by several of those interviewed, with a suggestion that this may not be universally

recognised. There is a concern that introduction of Dorpers without quality fences and trap

yards may result in overgrazing of preferred areas of paddocks and properties, and affect

management on neighbouring properties.

Figure 4-12 Management changes over the last 10 years (Survey response)

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Property expansion

Opportunistic cropping

Introduced new animal type

Installed fencing

Built trapyards to improve mustering efficiency

Water point development

Introduced total grazing pressure management

Undertaken / Updated Business Plan

Employing a consultant / business advisor


Q16. What changes in management have you made in the last 10 years, that is post WEST 2000

Plus (please tick all that apply)?

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Other management changes referred to by survey respondents included:

“Son’s involvement”;

“Drought feeding Sheep for last 3 Years .Most of 2000s we have been in drought”;

“Developed Business Plan / Property Plan”;

“Trap yards for goats (x7)”;

“Enterprise expansion”;

“Sheep breeding programs”;

“TGP since 1993”; and

“Introduction of laneways”.

Figure 4-13 Drivers for management changes over the last 10 years (Survey response)

In summary, support for infrastructure development provided by WEST 2000 Plus played an

important role in introducing new enterprise types (Dorpers, goats), improving management

standards (through TGP management) and encouraging further investment in property

improvement by WEST 2000 Plus participants and others. WEST 2000 Plus participants

commonly invested considerably more than required by the funding ratio set by the program

so that the grant funds acted effectively as ‘seed’ capital. However, it is doubtful if the levels of

private investment over the last 10 years, and currently, would be as high without continued

support from the CMAs and Western LLS.

Need to increase

profitability

27%

Desire to improve

condition of my

infrastructure

25%

Succession planning

10%

Desire to improve

condition of my land

32%


6%

Q17. What was driving the changes

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4.1.3.2 Improved management capacity – short-term outcome

(a) Commitment to training

Training and skill development was a high priority for both WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus.

Including the Young Farmers Assistance Scheme, a total of $1.6 million was invested, with

1,680 applications for assistance approved. Leaving aside the likelihood that many

landholders were involved in more than one activity, most landholders were involved in some

aspects of training.

Based on comments made by some non-landholder interviewees, WEST 2000 and WEST

2000 Plus came at a good time and were very important in supporting landholders by:

Giving them the capacity to try different things, and providing people with some

confidence.

Changing people’s relationship to government departments to one with more mutual

respect and a cooperative attitude. Landholders changed their view of Government, and

‘government’ changed their view of graziers. This has benefited relationships since that

time.

Building community leadership and learning networks, which was also facilitated by

access to better phone communication, faxes, emails and the internet during this period.

Providing support for a range of training activities which built management capacity.

One long-time government employee in the region stated:

WEST 2000 (and then WEST 2000 Plus) came along at just the right time. The situation was

dire, it is hard to express how bad things were and provided people with ideas, opportunities to

try different things etc. The WEST 2000 Plus activities and other influences encouraged

people to look at the pastures first, whereas formerly they were only looking at the sheep.

In respect of training activities, some interviewees (landholders and non-landholders) referred

to training as the most important aspect of WEST 2000 Plus. In particular the Grazing for Profit

courses, which were supported by WEST 2000 Plus, are seen to have had an “immense”

impact, on how people thought about management, the country and their enterprises. Those

interviewed suggested participation gave them the tools they needed, and a capacity to

measure change. Of particular importance was the follow-up support (e.g. property visits,

contact by phone and email, additional activities) provided by the Grazing for Profit team.

People involved have adapted their grazing management and are keeping an eye on ground

cover – with this trend supported by activities conducted by the Western CMA. There is a

better understanding of the nutritional value of the feed.

Commitment to training has continued after WEST 2000 Plus, with 69% of the respondents to

the on-line survey having undertaken training post-WEST 2000 Plus. It is important not to

over-emphasise the universality of these observations. One non-landholder suggested that

about 30% of landholders are looking at ‘best practice’ standards of management, with still a

number of businesses not adopting any meaningful change in grazing management

approaches.

Other reasons for improvement in management skills include the need to do business activity

statements (BAS), and the increasing use of accounting software packages. Some 84% of

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survey respondents use computerized business accounting software including Phoenix

Accounting, MYOB and Cashbook Plus.

We were told that landholders are beginning to think about managing system change. They

are more amenable to rotational grazing (in part via moving waters). People are time poor, but

will attend interactive/ experiential field days that are ‘hands-on’. Based on advice from

Western LLS staff and RFCs, there are perceived to be more young people (in their 30’s) now

managing properties than previously. People seek advice from Western LLS and Rural

Counsellors and about one third of landholders are thought to be actively seeking information

that is valid and relevant in the management of their business.

Overall, there is evidence that the effect of these activities in training and business

improvement is being reflected in an increased confidence in managing future challenges, as

shown in the survey responses presented in Figure 4-14.

Figure 4-14 Confidence in the future (Survey response)

(b) Managing Total Grazing Pressure

TGP is being adopted and WEST 2000 Plus was important in getting people to think about

changing their practices and in seeing the opportunities to make money from the unmanaged

grazers. People are moving from opportunistically harvesting goats across the whole property

to excluding goats from areas with other livestock, and confining goats to particular areas. It

requires a change in attitude, and people have to be prepared to invest more time in

management. However, the opportunity to obtain more returns from feral goats is an important

driver, with the spin-off being that ground cover improves.

In the opinion of government officers interviewed, landholders managed the ‘millennium

drought’ much better than earlier droughts. Sheep losses in this drought were said to be

between 10 and 15% (cf. with losses in earlier droughts). This was attributed to the virtual

absence of rabbits in previously heavily infested areas, and because people were managing

better. Part of this management change occurred because people could see the results of

Very confident

30%

Confident

57%

Not Sure

11%

Doubtful

2%

Very Doubtful

0%

Q20. How confident are you in your current business situation

about being able to manage future challenges?

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management decisions, without any response to their decisions being masked by the grazing

pressure exerted by rabbits. Coming out of the drought, one long-time, well-informed non-

landholder noted there were younger, better educated graziers than there had been

previously, more perennials in the groundcover, less poisonous plants, less un-managed

grazers and better quality, more valued stock.

4.1.3.3 Overview – more profitable businesses – short-to medium outcome

The evidence presented earlier in Section 3.4, and supported by further data in this Section

4.1.3 is that most businesses are more profitable than they were in the 1990s. The nature of

the RFC activities has changed, financiers report that they have no problem clients, and the

landholders’ comments are positive. There is a widespread view that management capacity

has improved since 2000 and that WEST 2000 Plus made an important contribution to the

improvement, which has flowed through to improved profitability. The training activities are

seen as making a valued contribution to increasing people’s awareness about the

opportunities for change, with the grant programs providing the means to implement change

and the absence of rabbits allowing the country to respond to management.

The WEST 2000 Plus program was well-timed, as it aligned with the release of calicivirus in

the region, the rapid introduction of improved communications (phone, fax, email, internet),

widespread availability of cheap home computing technology and associated management

software, and a requirement to submit BAS statements which instilled some management

rigour.

Considered collectively, the WEST 2000 Plus activities complemented other beneficial

influences in supporting a general improvement in business profitability. This conclusion

needs to be tempered, however, by the observation that WD landholders continue to expect

some level of government support for property improvements that deliver a mixture of

profitability and NRM benefits, and for training and business planning services (as in the

RFCs).

4.2 Long term outcomes (Level 1 in the in Logframe in Table 2-1)

4.2.1 Sustainable use and condition of natural resources – long-term outcome

4.2.1.1 Attitudinal change

Many of the interviewees (particularly non-landholders) who contributed to this evaluation

noted a changing attitude among landholders towards natural resource management. Some of

this evidence has already been discussed in Section 3.6.2.3 above and will not be repeated in

detail here. Suffice to say that evidence pointing to such an attitudinal shift included:

widespread recognition of ground cover as an important indicator, and the entry of terms

such as Total Grazing Pressure and Total Grazing Management into the lexicon

(particularly among younger graziers).

increased emphasis on the capacity of land to deliver an adequate plane of nutrition for

meat production.

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various statements (often with supporting observations or evidence) to the effect that land

management or drought management has improved, or that a cultural change has

occurred in which there is ‘much more broad discussion about looking after country’.

increasing acceptance, and in some cases enthusiastic adoption, of various forms of non-

continuous or rotational grazing.

numerous applications to Catchment Management Authorities or LLS for projects related

to NRM which is ‘a higher priority for landholders now’, and which acknowledge the need

to demonstrate total grazing management. (A number of interviewees expressed the view

that participation in WEST 2000 Plus was the catalyst for many landholders for

involvement in other programs offered by the Catchment Management Authorities).

On this basis, a trend towards more sustainable use of natural resource could reasonably be

expected. It would also be reasonable to accept the view of some interviewees that much of

this attitudinal change could be attributed to the WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus programs.

In contrast, however, some interviewees pointed to a relative resistance to attitudinal change

among older landholders who are still the majority of the pastoral community. Furthermore, the

high degree of absenteeism associated with the ‘churning’ of less productive (shrub

encroached) leases on the Cobar pedeplain, and the actions of some investors who have

acquired large land holdings in recent years (e.g. in reducing the size of the workforce) sound

a note of caution that the favourable changes that are readily observable are not universal.

4.2.1.2 Infrastructure investment

As noted in Section 4.1.1 above the widespread adoption of innovations relevant to the

management of total grazing pressure has given Western Division pastoralists probably

unprecedented capacity to manage the natural resource base in a sustainable way. Trap

yards, for example, are now widely used for harvesting of feral goats and to some extent for

managing domestic grazing pressure (they offer, for example, the capacity to close off water in

destocked paddocks and also facilitate stock movement between paddocks). TGP fencing is

widespread and would be the choice for any new fencing established (some landholders are

closely observing the development of cluster fencing in Queensland in which groups of

properties combine to erect TGP fencing around their joint boundary), and the Cap and Pipe

the Bores scheme has provided pastoralists in the northern part of the region with hitherto

unachievable control of their stock water supply.

The investment in this infrastructure has been far greater than that provided by WEST 2000

and WEST 2000 Plus. A recurring theme among landholders and non-landholders interviewed

was the extent to which the ‘seed’ funding provided by the program subsequently stimulated

private investment that was considerably greater (often several times greater) than that

required under the cost sharing arrangement of the grant.

4.2.1.3 Rabbit control

The combined impact of warren ripping and calicivirus on rabbits in the southern part of the

region has been described in Section 3.6.2.3. While this impact persists, expert advice

suggests that the southern rangelands will be positioned to deliver sustainable resource

management to at least the same extent, and perhaps more so, as the capping and piping of

artesian bores has positioned the north.

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4.2.1.4 Viable businesses able to manage natural resources

The development of viable businesses in the region has been discussed in both Sections 3.4.2

and 4.1.1.2 above. There is no doubt that many businesses are in a more viable condition now

than was the case before WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus and that at least part of the credit

for this situation can be claimed by the programs. To the extent that economically viable

businesses are a prerequisite for sustainable resource management, many landholders in the

Western Division are, by this criterion too, well placed to deliver sustainable use of natural

resources.

In contrast, however, the caution regarding lack of universality noted under (a) above applies

equally here.

4.2.1.5 Evidence of regional change

The evidence for regional changes in resource condition has been discussed in Sections

3.6.2.1 to 3.6.2.3. That discussion concluded that there is justification for cautious optimism

that rangeland management and rangeland condition are improving in the region although the

latter may only be detectable on long time scales and seems not to be universal. The

downward trend in ground cover on the Cobar pedeplain over the last 22 years (Figure 3-14)

and the long term trend in the severity of dust events at Ivanhoe (Figure 3-15) caution against

too optimistic an assessment. Areas previously seriously affected by rabbits (i.e. west and

south west) have benefited more than those areas with relatively low rabbit populations before

WEST 2000 Plus. Some land types are more responsive to management than others.

However, as noted elsewhere, we do not have sufficient monitoring data to be able to be

precise about the geographical distribution of the nature and magnitude of change.

4.2.2 Viable businesses – long-term outcome

4.2.2.1 The current state of businesses in the Western Division

The secondary data presented in Section 3.4 show that the region’s businesses were in a

healthier financial state in 2012 than in the mid-1990s. Between these two dates, the region

weathered the extremes of the ‘millennium drought’ better than it had previous droughts.

Further advice from financiers and Rural Financial Counsellors is that they now have very few

clients in extreme difficulty compared to the situation in the 1990’s. One Rural Financial

Counsellor knows of 3 or 4 families out of 300 in his area of operations in financial difficulty,

although he noted that as at December 2014, the region is now running into a dry time.

Overall, there is a small percentage of the region’s pastoral businesses that are ‘struggling or

limping along’, although it would be wrong to ignore this sector of the industry.

In part because of the improved situation, the role of the Rural Financial Counsellors has

changed largely from assisting very difficult cases to providing more mainstream strategic and

financial management services to viable businesses. This Service, which was supported by

WEST 2000 Plus, is valued and well used throughout the region.

Supporting statements for the more favourable financial situation from non-landholders

consulted include the following:

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There are no clients that are currently of concern to the bank ….. cannot recall any of _____’s

clients who have needed to be referred to a lending specialist.

------------ used to do a lot of debt mediation work (under the NSW Debt Mediation Act) in

former years, but is doing very few of these now. There are not many people in situations

where debt is too high. There were formerly a lot of people relying on Centrelink, but there are

few now.

WD is now in much better shape than ever before in 30 years of experience. He suggested it

is now in ‘ruddy health’ in a holistic sense – socio-economically and environmentally.

most people encountered are optimistic and are confident in the future of the livestock

industry.

people are investing in FMDs and some are treating these funds as superannuation. It would

help if the allowable amount that can be held in FMDs could be increased above the current

maximum of $400,000 per business. Other people turn funds back into property

improvements as a form of superannuation.

4.2.2.2 The impact of WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus

The causes for the higher percentage of financially robust businesses are several, with nearly

all of them related at least in part to projects undertaken within WEST 2000 and WEST 2000

Plus. In response to a question regarding the impact of WEST 2000 Plus involvement on their

profitability, over 73% of online survey respondents said that it improved profitability (as shown

in Figure 4-15Figure 4-16), and had improved their long-term prospects, which is a better

indication of viability (Figure 4-16).

Figure 4-15 Impact of WEST 2000 Plus on business profitability (Survey response)

Profitability has

improved

73%

Much the same

25%

Profitability has

declined

2%

Q8. Ignoring other factors, how has involvement in WEST

2000 Plus alone affected profitability of your business?

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Figure 4-16 Impact of WEST 2000 Plus on long-term prospects (Survey response)

As confirmed by those interviewed, most of the survey respondents are intending to either

expand, make further management changes or pass the business onto the next generation.

Only 17% of those responding to the survey are intending to leave at some time in the future.

However, this may be a lower percentage than for the region as a whole, given that people

planning to leave may have been less inclined to respond to the survey.

Figure 4-17 Future intentions (Survey response)

Improved future

prospects

76% Had no long-term

effects

24%

Lowered future

prospects

0%

Q9. Looking forward, how has your involvement in WEST 2000

Plus affected your future long-term prospects in the Western

Division?

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WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus were able to build on existing trends in the region – such as

an openness to alternatives in the wake of the wool industry collapse, leading to interest in

goats, Dorpers, tourism and some other ventures. Most people spoken to confirmed the role

played by improved infrastructure in allowing effective and efficient feral goat harvesting, with

WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus demonstration and grant projects playing a useful role in

showing the potential gains. Income from goats was clearly vital through the drought years,

and with continued investment in TGP infrastructure, goat income continues to be very

important.

WEST 2000 Plus provided the resources enabling many businesses to commence running

Dorpers and managed goats. The economics of running Dorpers would appear to have been a

major ‘game changer’, with widespread adoption. A rough calculation places the gross margin

for a Dorper ewe at between $90 and $100/hd (estimated $33 to $37 per DSE), compared to a

Merino ewe gross margin of about $30 to $40/ha (estimated $17 to $22 per DSE). However,

while recognising the large benefits from running Dorpers, some of those consulted cautioned

the need for superior quality fencing, which not everyone has, and the need to recognise that

a Dorper ewe may be up to 1.5 ‘Merino ewe equivalents’ (WLLS advice) when calculating

stocking rates. Supporting observations from those interviewed are presented below.

These [WEST 2000 Plus demonstrations] were valuable in that they awakened landholders

to opportunities, demonstrated value of meat sheep (Damaras and Dorpers). After 10 years

since WEST 2000 Plus work, there is still a spill-over effect.

The Western Division survived on feral goats – no doubt about it during the drought years,

and they continue to be very important.

There is now a lot of diversity in the region, with people farming goats and doing well, and

similarly with Dorpers. Further, some people have diversified their business by purchasing

inside country. Others are working off the property.

4.2.2.3 Engagement with government agencies

One other benefit was the closer engagement fostered by WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus

between landholders and those employed by government agencies. One government officer

who has worked in the Western Division for many years remarked that landholders changed

their view of Government, and it was suggested that government changed their view of

landholders. The person interviewed benefited from this change in attitude in his contact with

landholders. Overall these developments have contributed to aspects of improved regional

viability in the sense that the shared understanding enables a better appreciation of real

issues to be addressed, and cooperation in implementing solutions.

4.2.2.4 Risks to business viability

There are some contrary observations to make. As shown in Section 4.1.2, the property

market is reasonably ‘sluggish’ at ensuring structural adjustment in the Western Division,

especially in areas with limited prospects, and problems in managing succession are affecting

many businesses, leading to some family breakdowns. All of the non-landholders spoken to

referred to the need for more services (e.g. social and health supports, succession planning)

in this area.

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Further, the wide array of government assistance provided through droughts and floods, in

debt reconstruction, and to support industry development some of which are detailed in

Section 3.7 are indications of an industry that is still vulnerable and reliant to a degree on

publicly-funded assistance, with that assistance seen as being beneficial economically and

socially. As one interviewee noted …

…many of the people in the region would not be here now without assistance provided by

WEST 2000 Plus and Exceptional Circumstances (EC) and some good advice. These

programs ‘kept good people here’.

Finally, and notwithstanding the comments made about better relationships between

government and industry, these favourable developments are being put at risk by cuts to

services in the Western Division, and an apparent difficulty in recruiting and retaining qualified

staff. The latter point is a problem recognised widely as being due in part to short-term

contracts for on-ground people, and frequent policy changes by government. The comment

below reflects these concerns.

______ feels there is not enough discussion about what should be done/ what is required in the Western

Division. There is not enough contact between graziers and government people – leading to poor

interaction. There are not enough ‘on the ground’ government people, and some of those involved do

not have sufficient understanding/ knowledge.

4.2.3 Summary – long-term outcomes

While acknowledging the contribution to any long term improvement in the outlook for

resource sustainability that can be claimed by other programs, we believe that substantial

credit for improved resource condition can also be claimed by WEST 2000 Plus.

Business and regional pastoral viability is better now than before WEST 2000 and WEST 2000

Plus, and may be as robust as in most rural districts around Australia. This improvement is

due to many factors, with the ‘big boost’ provided by WEST 2000 Plus being an important

factor, and one that is acknowledged by survey respondents and those interviewed. This boost

complemented other factors (as in rabbit warren ripping coinciding with the release of

calicivirus), facilitated moves into new enterprises (as in Dorpers and managed goats) and

introduced new thinking and values into the region (as in the focus on ground cover and

encouragement of training involvement). Conversely, on-going reliance on government

support for aspects of industry development, concerns about how succession is managed, and

an uneven trend in natural resource condition indicators suggest some vulnerability remains at

business and regional scales.

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5 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 The Western Division in 2015

The Western Division in 2015 is paradoxical. It presents a series of contrasts that have

perhaps always been present but which seem, in light of the preceding discussion, to be

thrown into dramatic relief.

1. Economic optimism versus economic stagnation

Some landholders who have embraced alternative industries (including enterprises such

as farm tourism as well as the more widespread rangeland goat and dorper enterprises)

appear to be doing well economically, particularly if they have land well suited to purpose,

and are optimistic about the future. Others have improved the productivity of traditional

wool-dominant enterprises, as shown by the lower rates of sheep death during the

‘millennium drought’ than in earlier times, and by the increased emphasis placed on meat

production from Merino flocks. In contrast, those who have poor quality land or are

persisting with enterprises and management systems that result in lower productivity may

be unable to generate sufficient funds to maintain infrastructure and a reasonable

standard of living.

2. Improving versus declining social capital

The development of profitable, alternative enterprises has apparently led to the

opportunity for some younger farmers to return to the land and, in some cases, for families

to purchase or lease additional property to facilitate this. In contrast, some large scale

property acquisitions have apparently led to a reduction in people on properties and a

corresponding decline in the local social fabric. It is evident that many properties are being

run with limited labour resulting in less time for social networking. In other instances,

failure to adequately address issues of succession planning or attitudinal change have

apparently led to some young people leaving the region.

3. Improved versus unchanged or declining standard of resource management

Much evidence has been presented above regarding changed attitudes to NRM, changed

capacity for improved NRM (e.g. improved infrastructure or reduction of rabbits), and

changed practice (e.g. management during the ‘millennium drought’, uptake of non-

continuous grazing). At the same time, an increasing degree of absenteeism, particularly

in scrub encroached areas, reduced population density, aggravated in some cases by

large scale land acquisition, and the general time pressures on landholders have

apparently resulted in a reduction in the standard of land management on some

properties. The environmental threat posed by the new enterprises based on rangeland

goats and Dorpers, if not managed to a high standard, adds another dimension to this

contrast.

4. Viable businesses versus unchanged rate of property turnover

It might have been expected that the advent of more profitable enterprises may have

resulted in a reduced rate of property turnover. However, over the division as a whole, it

appears that the rate of lease turnover has not changed substantially over the long term

(since 2004 at least) and that grazing leases continue to turnover at rates somewhat

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higher than mixed grazing or agricultural leases, although without sufficient structural

adjustment (to larger property sizes) in areas that would benefit.

5. Increasing level of administrative support versus declining level of technical

support

The advent of the Local Land Services organisations has concentrated substantial human

resources in organisations intended to provide services to landholders. However, while

administrative support for issues such as grant applications and project management

seems readily available the capacity to deliver sound technical advice on the ground has

substantially declined, mainly due to a perceived reduction in the number of experienced

staff working ‘on the ground’. The result seems to be an increasing disconnect with

landholders who are tending to see government employees more as office-bound

bureaucrats than as field operatives. This is a particularly unfortunate situation given the

substantial level of mutual trust and respect that had been established through programs

such as WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus, the operation of Catchment Management

Authorities and former government agencies.

6. Reasonable access to business planning support versus limited access to

social support

While business advice is well covered by the RFCs, some interviewees pointed to the

need for social counselling services to address the many social and mental health issues

(including succession planning discussed above) that confront landholders who are time

poor and often working in isolation.

We are unable, on the basis of the evidence compiled in this evaluation, to determine with

any precision the way in which the poles of these contrasts are geographically distributed.

They remain generalisations about the region as a whole and will therefore be more or

less applicable in particular locations. They do indicate, however, that there is still a

degree to which the Western Division remains ‘at the crossroads’ with much potential for

well-planned initiatives to progress the region further in pursuit of the objectives originally

established for WEST 2000 Plus.

5.2 The value of WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus

5.2.1 Demonstration of a well-managed program

The management structure worked well and was commented on by many landholders

interviewed – essentially grass roots management, with a small, capable and personable staff.

This built credibility that in turn has benefited the CMAs and Western LLS.

5.2.2 The value of a ‘big boost’

In the late 1990s, landholders were recognising the need to move away from reliance mainly

on wool income and were beginning to consider income from sheep meat and the need to

make better use of income from goats. Further, there was interest in better land management,

but not necessarily the means. WEST 2000 Plus provided sufficient seed funding to a

sufficient number of recipients to give these new enterprises and new management

technologies a ‘big boost’ – a term used by several of those interviewed. Clearly the funding

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benefited the direct recipients, but there is sufficient evidence from the interviews that there

has been a spill-over effect across the region in time and space.

5.2.3 Commitment to management improvement

Several of those interviewed (landholders and non-landholders) regarded the support for

training as being the most valuable investment made by WEST 2000 Plus. The immediate

benefits were spread widely, with most landholders being involved in some aspect of off-

property skill development. This experience was new for many landholders, but as is evident

from survey and interview data, people have continued to seek out opportunities to build their

management skills.

In particular, the Grazing for Profit courses and Bestprac program have been widely

appreciated, as well as the learnings that have come from groups of landholders just working

together on common management issues. It would seem that WEST 2000 Plus has

contributed to a cultural change, especially amongst the younger landholders. Further, there is

evidence that the improved management skills enabled the region to get through the

‘millennium drought’ in better shape than occurred in previous droughts. At least some of this

better performance may be attributed to WEST 2000 Plus projects in the years before and

during the early years of the drought.

5.2.4 New attitudes and values

WEST 2000 Plus activity initiated and supported new thinking about the needs of the land, in

particular the importance of managing for ground cover and the opportunities for industry

development. The willingness of several landholders to become involved in the EBC project,

which was genuinely innovative in a pastoral environment, and the evident satisfaction with

their involvement represent new attitudes in managing rangeland. The training activities and

demonstrations opened peoples’ thinking to new ways of management, and in many cases,

this search for useful innovations has continued.

The absence of rabbits in areas previously heavily infested allowed many landholders to see

the results of discrete management decisions for the first time. For example, a decision to rest

an area from grazing could be rewarded by increased vegetation cover. This empowered

landholders to recognise that their management could have an impact. This also applied to

landholders who became (and have become) serious about getting control of the goats on

their land. The response to TGP infrastructure can be seen and appreciated.

It is necessary though not to over-emphasise these trends. While it is suggested that perhaps

30% are at the forefront in management thinking and decision-making, there remain many

businesses that are either unable or unwilling to make the changes needed. Some people

suggested that the shift to Dorpers was not always associated with the necessary ‘lift’ in

management and infrastructure, and despite efforts to exert better control over goats in the

WD, numbers of feral goats continue to increase. However, the examples of what can be

achieved are available and there is a continuing demand for advice and assistance by

landholders who are looking to make changes.

5.2.5 Good timing

WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus were well timed, which was a mixture of good planning and

luck. Good planning contributed to the decisions to invest in supporting landholders to develop

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alternative enterprises at a time when the Merino wool industry was struggling and many

landholders were looking for alternatives. Further, the investments in infrastructure enabled

demonstrations of the value of TGP and trap yard technologies that are now still being

implemented across the region. As noted below, training in computer use aligned well with

availability of cheap home computers, the internet, and good farm business record keeping

and accounting software packages. Finally, the decision to invest in a trial of an EBC project

was innovative, but recognised the emerging findings from research undertaken by ecologists

and resource economists that showed the ‘gap’ between the profit maximising objectives of

landholders and NRM maximising objectives of the landlord (i.e. the government).

Alongside this good planning, there was also an element of luck. The WEST 2000 investment

in warren ripping, which occurred before the release of calicivirus was of limited value in

suppressing region-wide rabbit numbers. The investment in warren ripping in WEST 2000 Plus

occurred just after the period when calicivirus had swept through the area leading to a

dramatic reduction in the rabbit population. The warren ripping was able to complete the job,

by tackling those warrens still active. Those consulted suggested that the current low

population of rabbits in areas that have been warren-ripped through WEST 2000 Plus is 50:50

due to calicivirus and warren ripping.

5.2.6 Serendipitous benefits

The range of benefits which flow from projects cannot be foreseen in advance – many projects

led to useful learnings and developments that were not part of the original objectives either for

the projects, or indeed the WEST 2000 Plus program. Examples include:

There was no explicit objective to improve relationships between landholders and

government, although this was an outcome that has been beneficial for both parties.

Maintaining that close relationship in an era of reduced public services is challenging.

The original intent of RFC services was to assist those people facing severe financial

stress. The acceptance of the value of these services now means that they are consulted

quite widely for a range of business management services. Although not strictly aligned

with their official role, the recognition of the value of business management advice is a

welcome development in the Western Division.

There was no explicit objective to build landholder awareness of the importance of ‘ground

cover’ as an indicator of land condition. However, we have been impressed by the number

of times landholders interviewed have referred to maintenance of ground cover as an

objective in its own right. This may not have occurred without the move into TGP and EBC

management fostered initially by WEST 2000 Plus and continued by the CMAs and

Western LLS.

The investments in training for the purpose of building management skills aligned with the

introduction of better communication technology (phone, fax, internet) in the region,

computerised farm business record keeping and accounting, and the need to complete

BAS statements. WEST 2000 Plus provided skills (and software) in these areas, the

electronic technology was available, and the requirement emerged (as in BAS

statements). The outcome has been many people with much better business

management skills.

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5.2.7 What was not achieved

Sub-optimal property sizes have long been recognised as a problem in the Western Division,

affecting both land management and business viability. WEST 2000 Plus invested a large

amount ($3.05 million) into debt restructuring, property build-up and re-establishment

assistance. However, these funds benefited very few (36 property build-ups) and had very little

regional impact. The secondary data we have been able to review for the evaluation suggests

that rates of property turnover are little changed overall, and that the problem of ‘churn’ in

scrub encroached areas remains. Structural adjustment (i.e. towards larger business sizes)

appears to be proceeding relatively slowly. It may be limited by high property prices and the

buying activities of a few very large landholders although only anecdotal evidence is available

to support this. In any event, WEST 2000 Plus was not able to substantially influence this path

towards improved regional viability.

The second area of relative failure has been the considerable investments made by WEST

2000 and WEST 2000 Plus in assisting landholders with the removal of woody weeds from

seriously INS affected areas. Some short-term benefits were achieved, but it seems that in

many cases the land treated, often at a high cost per hectare, has reverted to a shrub-

dominated state. The general conclusion now reached is that there is unlikely to be value in

tackling areas of seriously affected land, unless the clearing costs can be offset by

opportunistic cropping (as in the wetter margins of the Western Division).

To the extent that the WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus investments confirmed earlier

government agency views about the problems with large scale INS removal, this can be seen

as a form of benefit. The focus is shifting to keeping land ‘open’ by treating infestations when

they are first seen, although there is evidence that not enough landholders are taking action

early enough.

The first objective in the WEST 2000 Plus Program included as an outcome ‘self-reliant’ rural

industries. The continued support for business management services via ‘free for service’

publicly funded RFCs, and the continuing reliance on government grants for TGP and other

infrastructure show that this outcome was not fully achieved. While the region’s pastoral

businesses are in better shape now that in the 1990s, there is an on-going expectation that

government should support training and business management as indirect assistance to

landholders and grants for infrastructure (fences, waters, trap yards) as direct forms of

assistance. Given that much of this direct investment is leveraged by landholder co-investment

it can be justified for its NRM outcomes, although it is not consistent with full ‘self-reliance’. It

may be that pastoral industries, operating in an often difficult – in all respects – environment

will never achieve full self-reliance, but it is nevertheless a policy matter worthy of on-going

analysis.

5.3 Recommendations

WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus were successful because landholders recognised they

had a problem and the program built on, and facilitated, trends that were already evident

in the region. Program oversight closely involved the primary stakeholders and the

management team was small, efficient and comprised competent individuals who

engaged successfully with participants. This is a good model, in that these programs

supported what the locals were doing, or hoping to do, and operated with obvious

transparency and efficiency. We recommend that future major change management

42908645/REP/0 104

programs in rural Australia learn from, and encourage the incorporation of, the

experience of WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus.

In light of this experience, we recommend that Western LLS capitalise on the

increasing interest in NRM in the Western Division and support implementation of a

program similar to the WEST 2000 Plus EBC ground cover initiative, embedded in

an appropriate policy framework that addresses the need for cost neutrality (e.g. by

offsetting incentive payments against future drought entitlements). Further, there is

some interest in delivery of other environmental services which should be encouraged.

We recommend that the NSW and Commonwealth Governments recognise the

important role being played by the RFC Service and continue to support it in the

short to medium-term. At the same time, it would be useful at some time to build a

pricing signal into the service in order to encourage more private sector professional

services into the region in the long-term.

Poor succession planning and implementation is an important issue across the Western

Division. The consequence can often be poor business and land management, family

breakdown and personal illnesses, and sometimes worse. People in more closely settled

areas have the opportunity to consult a wide range of professional services to assist with

these issues. In this sense the Western Division is disadvantaged, and we recommend

government provide targeted assistance for succession planning and other social

supports.

WEST 2000 Plus grants played an important role as ‘seed funding’ that frequently

leverage much larger amounts of private investment aimed at improving business viability

and natural resource management. The investment of public funds in such programs will

therefore probably achieve the greatest benefit if they are distributed among landholders

as widely as reasonably possible. Therefore, we recommend that Western LLS relax

eligibility criteria in grant programs, as appropriate; to ensure that public funding is

distributed as widely as possible.

Discussions with both landholders and agency staff indicated that major issues with grant

funding revolve around ensuring completion of projects, avoiding excessively demanding

applications or highly prescriptive management, and allowing up-front payments where

appropriate. These issues might well be addressed by a two-tiered application process

whereby those requiring up-front payments need to provide evidence of financial capacity

to complete the project while those satisfied with payment on completion can be paid on

submission of receipts with a simplified application process. We recommend that WLLS

consider introducing flexibility into future grant funding processes to better meet

the needs of both funders and grantees.

There is probably little point in attempting to solve the ‘churn’ problem on the Cobar

pedeplain. The region has been subject to a number of programs over the years which

have failed to resolve the issue (Cobar-Byrock Rehabilitation Scheme, WEST 2000 and

WEST 2000 Plus, CMA initiatives) and the market is addressing the problem with many

leases changing purpose to allow alternative uses. Lessees in this region who wish to

persevere with agricultural or pastoral production need freedom to treat the scrub problem

as it has been demonstrated it can be treated (e.g. short term cropping) but otherwise it is

probably best simply to allow the market to allocate land to whatever purpose can be

42908645/REP/0 105

legitimately approved. For such a market to operate, however, boundary fences must be

of an acceptable standard, without which the Minister will not approve a lease transfer. We

recommend that government explore the value of providing assistance to establish

acceptable boundary fencing to ensure properties can be sold and the market is

allowed to operate.

Inadequate secondary data and information on the economic, environmental and social

state of the Western Division’s pastoral and agricultural industries limit the ability of

government to design policies that meet the region’s needs. We recommend that NSW

and Commonwealth agencies responsible for information and data collection from

the region review what is being done currently and then implement more robust

means of tracking the state of, and trends in, the region.

42908645/REP/0 107

6 REFERENCES

Anonymous (2000). Western Lands Review. Final Report. Department of Land and Water Conservation, Sydney NSW.

ABARES, Australian Bankers Association and the National Farmers Federation (2014). Regional Farm Debt: northern Queensland gulf, south west Queensland and north west NSW. Australian Government.

Alemseged Y and R.B. Hacker (2014). Introduction of dorper sheep into Australian rangelands: implications for production and natural resource management. The Rangeland Journal 36:85-90.

Alemseged Y, R.B. Hacker, W.J. Smith and G.J. Melville (2011). Temporary cropping in semi-arid shrublands increases native perennial grasses. The Rangeland Journal 33, 67-87

Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2012, Australian Social Trends 2012 – Australian Farmers and Farming, Catalogue No. 4102.0

Bastin G, P. Scarth, V. Chewings, A. Sparrow, R. Denham, M. Schmidt, P. O’Reagain, R. Shepherd and B. Abbot (2012). Separating grazing and rainfall effects at regional scale using remote sensing imagery: a dynamic reference-cover method. Remote Sensing of Environment 121:443-447. doi:10.1016/j.rse.2012.02.021

Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) (2015). Report for the Western Region New South Wales, 01 January 2000 to 31 December 2014, Report produced by the Monitor, Canberra (retrieved from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares on 2 February 2015)

Eves, C. (2012). An analysis of NSW Rural Property Market: 1990-2010. Proceedings 18th Annual Pacific-Rim Real Estate Society Conference, 2012.

GHD (2013). WEST 2000 Plus – Design of an Evaluation Plan – Draft Report, report prepared for the Western Catchment Management Authority, July 2013

Hacker R., T. Atkinson, B. Wynne, Y. Alemseged & G. Melville (2005) The Western TGP Project. On-property evaluation of total grazing pressure management. Final Report. WEST 2000 Plus. ISBN 0 7347 1649 0. 53pp. (NSW Department of Primary Industries)

Hacker R.B. and Y. Alemseged (2014). Incorporating farmed goats into sustainable rangeland grazing systems in southern Australia – a review. The Rangeland Journal 36:25-33.

Hassall and Associates Pty. Ltd. (1982). An Economic Study of the Western Division of NSW. A study of the impact of the cost-price squeeze on current and future viability of lessees in the Division (Table 1.1).

Khairo, S.A., J.D. Mullen, R.B. Hacker and D.A. Patton (2008). Farming Systems in the Pastoral Zone of NSW: An economic Analysis. Economic Resource Report No. 31. NSW Department of Primary Industries, Trangie, NSW.

Kuhner, P. (2005). Program Management and Achievements WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus. (WEST 2000 Plus, NSW Department of Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources, Dubbo

Martin, P., J. King, and W. Shafron. (2004). Australian wool industry 2004. ABARE Report 04.20. Commonwealth of Australia.

Pople, T. and J. Froese (2012). Distribution, abundance and harvesting of feral goats in the Australian rangelands 1984-2011. Final Report to the ACRIS Management Committee, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, Queensland Government.

42908645/REP/0 108

Pritchard, W., M. Neave, D. Hickey and L. Troy (2012). Rural Land in NSW: Spatial Patterns of Ownership Change: Aggregation and Fragmentation. Publication No. 12/128. Project No. PRJ-000171. Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation (Barton, ACT).

Sinclair, K. and Curtis, A. (2015). Changes and trends in the NSW Western Division social system. NSW Department of Primary Industries. Unpublished Report.

URS (2001). The WEST 2000 Rural Partnership Program: An Independent Evaluation, Report prepared for Board of Management WEST 2000, September 2005

URS (2005). Evaluation of WEST 2000 Plus Program, Report prepared for WEST 2000 Plus Management Board, 30 June 2005.

URS (2014). WEST 2000 Plus Evaluation – Evaluation Plan, Unpublished Plan prepared for Western Local Land Services, 4 September 2014

Western Catchment Management Authority (2007). Reporting Change in the Rangelands – 2007: NSW Information for the National Report, October 2007, Retrieved from http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/c9da878a-f843-45f6-b94f-ba847567a5a8/files/acris-nsw-reporting-oct07.pdf 13 January 2014

Western Catchment Management Authority (2010). Annual Report 2009-2010. NSW Government.

Western Catchment Management Authority (2012a). Annual Report 2011-2012. NSW Government.

Western Catchment Management Authority (2012b). Feral Goat Management to Achieve Groundcover Targets. Feral Goat Management in the Western NSW Rangelands. Series No. 6.

42908645/REP/0 109

7 LIMITATIONS

URS Australia Pty Ltd (URS) has prepared this report in accordance with the usual care and

thoroughness of the consulting profession for the use of Western Local Land Services and

only those third parties who have been authorised in writing by URS to rely on this Report.

It is based on generally accepted practices and standards at the time it was prepared. No

other warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the professional advice included in this

Report.

It is prepared in accordance with the scope of work and for the purpose outlined in the contract

dated 16 June 2014.

Where this Report indicates that information has been provided to URS by third parties, URS

has made no independent verification of this information except as expressly stated in the

Report. URS assumes no liability for any inaccuracies in or omissions to that information.

This Report was prepared between December 2014 and March 2015 and is based on the

conditions encountered and information reviewed at the time of preparation. URS disclaims

responsibility for any changes that may have occurred after this time.

This Report should be read in full. No responsibility is accepted for use of any part of this

report in any other context or for any other purpose or by third parties. This Report does not

purport to give legal advice. Legal advice can only be given by qualified legal practitioners.

Except as required by law, no third party may use or rely on this Report unless otherwise

agreed by URS in writing. Where such agreement is provided, URS will provide a letter of

reliance to the agreed third party in the form required by URS.

To the extent permitted by law, URS expressly disclaims and excludes liability for any loss,

damage, cost or expenses suffered by any third party relating to or resulting from the use of,

or reliance on, any information contained in this Report. URS does not admit that any action,

liability or claim may exist or be available to any third party.

Except as specifically stated in this section, URS does not authorise the use of this Report by

any third party.

It is the responsibility of third parties to independently make inquiries or seek advice in relation

to their particular requirements and proposed use of the site.

Any estimates of potential costs which have been provided are presented as estimates only as

at the date of the Report. Any cost estimates that have been provided may therefore vary from

actual costs at the time of expenditure.

42908645/REP/0

APPENDIX A ONLINE SURVEY

SEE FOLLOWING PAGE

EVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAM

Thank you for taking the time to complete this survey to help to evaluate the impact of the WEST 2000 initiatives. Some background information about the program and the evaluation follows. Once you are ready to commence the survey click on the NEXT button below. WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus In the early 1990s landholders in the Western Division, particularly those in the wool growing industry, were faced with significant economic pressures including seriously depressed commodity prices, poor climatic conditions and high interest rates. In response,the New South Wales and Commonwealth Governments embarked on a consultative process that led to the development of the WEST 2000 Rural Partnership Program. ‘WEST’ is derived from the Phrase ‘Working for Equity and Sustainability Together’ summarising the partnership between Western Division landholders and the New South Wales and Commonwealth Governments. Program funds were invested through various projects focused on three main areas: 1. Natural resource management; 2. Rural restructuring; and 3. Training and skills development.

WEST 2000 concluded in June 2001.

In late 2000 a new agreement was established between the State and Commonwealth Governments. This agreement established WEST 2000 Plus.

WEST 2000 Plus objectives were:

to contribute to a competitive, viable and selfsustaining Western Division through the provision of measures to enhance the economic performance of Landholders and improve the management of the natural resources base

to contribute to robust, equitable and prosperous communities

The WEST 2000 Plus program funding continued until December 2008.

Determining the longterm impact of WEST 2000 Plus

URS Australia has been asked by Western Local Land Services to evaluate the longterm impact of this program (which includes the contribution of its predecessor WEST 2000). Your opinions and views are sought to assist in our evaluation of the impacts that WEST 2000 Plus has delivered in the Western Division. The objectives for the evaluation are to: document successes achieved from implementation of the WEST 2000 Plus program evaluate the effectiveness of the WEST 2000 Plus design and delivery against stated program objectives and measures assess the impact of the WEST 2000 Plus program and the identified outcomes of the program inform similar natural resource management programs and organisations The invitation to complete the survey has been sent to all participants in the WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus Program including yourself. Your responses to these questions are confidential and are being collected only for the purposes of the evaluation. No information will be shared with any third party that will enable them to identify you. The survey is largely multiple choice and should only take you 10 minutes to complete. You can exit the survey at any time by clicking on the EXIT Survey button at the top of the screen. You can also save the survey and return to it at a later time if you are interrupted.

WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus

Other

Other

EVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMIf you have any questions about the evaluation and how data will be used please contact Vicki Williams on (08) 93260100 or by Email

1. Please enter your post code

2. What sort of enterprises do you have (nominate all that apply)

3. How much land are you currently managing? (includes land held in own right and land subleased or otherwise managed)

4. Has the area of land managed changed over the past 10 years?

*Post Code:

*

*

*

Merino sheep gfedc

Cattle gfedc

Meat sheep (e.g. Dorpers) gfedc

Rangeland (i.e. managed) goats gfedc

Feral goat harvesting gfedc

Kangaroo harvesting gfedc

Tourism Venture gfedc

Agroforestry gfedc

Offfarm Work gfedc

Cropping gfedc


gfedc

Less than 10,000 hectares nmlkj

10,001 to 20,000 hectares nmlkj



More than 40,000 hectares nmlkj

Larger nmlkj

The same nmlkj

Smaller nmlkj

Other

EVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAM5. Have you obtained any services from any of the following:

6. Of the following WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus initiatives, please tick all those you were involved in.

WEST 2000 Plus nmlkj

Catchment Management Authorities nmlkj

Livestock Health and Pest Authorities nmlkj

Training Grants (e.g. grant to attend training course) gfedc

Computer Software Grants gfedc

Grants to access professional advice (e.g. for business management planning, etc) gfedc

Vocational Retraining gfedc

Attendance at Young Farmers Forum 2004 gfedc

Young Farmers Assistance Pilot Scheme (i.e. grant to assist in farm business entry or succession planning, attendance at workshops, other planning activities) gfedc

Young Farmer Assistance Establishment Grant (up to $50,000 to assist with establishment costs) gfedc

Landholders establish alternative industries (e.g. assistance to establish farmstay venture, alternate sheep breeds, goat enterprises etc.) gfedc

Alternative Industries Development (i.e. supporting the diversification of farm business enterprise) gfedc

Natural Resource Management (Up to $30,000 grant for rabbit harbour destruction, total grazing pressure management, woody weed control) gfedc

Total Grazing Pressure Management Trials and Demonstrations gfedc

Management Burn to control Woody Weeds gfedc

Lachlan River water savings demonstration project gfedc

Enterprise Based Conservation (EBC) pilot scheme gfedc

EBC Project Infrastructure funding gfedc

Interest Rate Subsidy Grant (to subsidise interest on new loans taken to build up property) gfedc

Debt Restructuring (up to $5000 to cover 80% of costs associated with debt and capital restructuring) gfedc

Use of services provided by Rural Counselling Service gfedc

Largescale burning trials gfedc

Other

EVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAM7. How has your involvement with WEST 2000 Plus affected your farm business? (Tick all that apply)

8. Ignoring other factors, how has involvement in WEST 2000 Plus alone affected profitability of your business?

9. Looking forward, how has your involvement in WEST 2000 Plus affected your future longterm prospects in the Western Division?

10. Have you been involved in training related to your business in the last 10 years (i.e. after the end of WEST 2000 Plus)?

11. Tick all training that you have undertaken in the last 10 years from the list below

*

Training and Development

*

Helped me to build new management skills gfedc

Provided new infrastructure gfedc

Helped me improve the country gfedc

Helped me to develop a new enterprise gfedc

Provided me with information to assist my business gfedc

Helped me to develop new skills gfedc

Did not have any effect gfedc

Made things worse gfedc


gfedc

Profitability has improved nmlkj Much the same nmlkj Profitability has declined nmlkj

Improved future prospects nmlkj Had no longterm effects nmlkj Lowered future prospects nmlkj

No, go to Question 12 nmlkj Yes nmlkj

Business management gfedc

Animal husbandry gfedc

Stock handling and management gfedc

Grazing management gfedc

People management gfedc

Machinery management gfedc

Chemical use gfedc

Occupational Health and Safety (incl. First Aid) gfedc

Computer use gfedc

No training gfedc


gfedc

Other

Other

EVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAM12. Are you interested in doing (further) training?

13. Do you use computerised business accounting software?

14. Select which computerised business accounting software you use

15. Do you use other computerbased applications to assist in the management of your business (include online applications)? If so, please name them otherwise click NEXT

Computerbased Applications

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Your business and the effects of WEST 2000 Plus

No nmlkj Maybe nmlkj Yes nmlkj

No, go to Question 15nmlkj Yes nmlkj

Cashbook Plus gfedc

MYOB gfedc

AgriMaster gfedc

Phoenix Accounting gfedc

Farmtracker gfedc


gfedc

EVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAM16. What changes in management have you made in the last 10 years, that is post WEST 2000 Plus (please tick all that apply)?

17. What was driving the changes (please tick all that apply)?

18. What networks (online and facetoface) are you involved in (please tick all that apply)?

Property expansion gfedc

Opportunistic cropping gfedc

Introduced new animal type gfedc

Installed fencing gfedc

Built trapyards to improve mustering efficiency gfedc

Water point development gfedc

Introduced total grazing pressure management gfedc

Undertaken / Updated Business Plan gfedc

Employing a consultant / business advisor gfedc


gfedc

Need to increase profitability gfedc

Desire to improve condition of my infrastructure gfedc

Succession planning gfedc

Desire to improve condition of my land gfedc


gfedc

Biosecurity group ( weed, pest or disease control) gfedc

Landcare group gfedc

Farm management group gfedc

Online organisation gfedc

NSW Farmers gfedc

Pastoralists Association of West Darling gfedc

Water Users Association gfedc

State Emergency Service group gfedc

Rural Fire Service group gfedc

Local Government authority gfedc


gfedc

EVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAM19. In your opinion, how has the condition of your land changed over the last 15 years?

20. How confident are you in your current business situation about being able to manage future challenges?

21. What are your intentions in the next 10 years (please tick all that apply)?

22. You have noted that you intend to stay in the business and change the enterprise mix. How do you intend to achieve this?

Changing the Enterprise Mix

55

66

Involvement in Young Farmers

Improved nmlkj Much the same nmlkj Worsened nmlkj

Any comments?

55

66

Very confident nmlkj Confident nmlkj Not Sure nmlkj Doubtful nmlkj Very Doubtful nmlkj

Planning to stay ‘as is’ (Go to Question 23) gfedc

Planning to stay and expand area managed (Go to Question 23) gfedc

Planning to stay and change the enterprise mix (Go to Question 22) gfedc

Planning to leave at some time (Go to Question 23) gfedc

Planning to pass the property on to younger family members (Go to Question 23) gfedc

Planning to invest offproperty(Go to Question 23) gfedc


gfedc

EVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAM23. Were you involved in any of the intiatives specifically aimed at Young Farmers (e.g.the Young Farmers Forum 2004, Young Farmers Assistance Pilot, Young Farmers Assistance Establishment Grant)?

24. In what aspects of the Young Farmers activities did you participate? (tick all that apply)

25. How did your involvement in these initiatives affect your business?

26. How well have young farmer networks established through WEST 2000 Plus persisted?

Young Farmers

Yes nmlkj

No, go to Question 31 nmlkj

Young Farmers Forum gfedc

Assistance with succession planning gfedc

Assistance with business planning gfedc

Received a grant for farm entry costs gfedc


gfedc

55

66

Helped a lot nmlkj

Helped a bit nmlkj

No effect nmlkj

Made things worse nmlkj

Any comments?

55

66

They have remained in place and are doing very well nmlkj

They have remained in place but are not accessed as much as they could be nmlkj

Other networks for young farmers have taken their place nmlkj

They have faded away nmlkj

EVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAM27. What were the main benefits to you of your involvement in these networks? (tick all that apply)

28. Have you established new networks since WEST 2000 Plus ended (i.e. since 2005)?

29. Tell us about those new networks? How did they form? Do you meet face to face or is it webbased? How have they helped you and your business? How many people do you think are part of the network?

30. Did your involvement in WEST 2000 Plus assist in developing these networks?

31. Did you receive a grant through WEST 2000 Plus to assist you in establishing new or alternative enterprises on your property?

*

55

66

Receive alternative enterprise grant

Alternative Enterprises

Information exchange related to animal, natural resource or business/financial management gfedc

Social contact gfedc

None, as I did not participate gfedc

Other (please explain)

gfedc

Yes nmlkj

No nmlkj

Yes nmlkj

No nmlkj

Not sure nmlkj

Yes nmlkj

No, go to Question 38 nmlkj

EVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAM32. What did you obtain WEST 2000 Plus alternative enterprise grant funds to do? (Tick all that apply)

33. How has the new enterprise affected your business? (tick all that apply)

34. Have you been encouraged by your experience with the new enterprise to continue to invest in expanding that enterprise?

35. How has the new enterprise affected your longterm prospects in the Western Division?

36. Please explain why?

*

55

66

Establish meat goats gfedc

Establish meat sheep gfedc

Establish tourism venture gfedc

Establish agricultural venture gfedc

Establish aquaculture venture gfedc

Harvest feral goats gfedc

Horticulture gfedc

Develop feedlots gfedc


gfedc

Improved profitability gfedc

Improved ease of management gfedc

Improved land condition gfedc

Had no effect on the business gfedc

Decreased profitability gfedc

Greater difficulty of management gfedc


gfedc

Yes nmlkj

No nmlkj

Improved longterm prospects nmlkj

Has not made much difference nmlkj

We have since got out of the new enterprise nmlkj

It has worsened our longterm prospects nmlkj

EVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAM37. If the new enterprise has improved your longterm prospects, has your experience influenced others within your circle of industry contacts to adopt the new enterprise?

38. Did you receive assistance with natural resource management on your property?

39. Did you receive WEST 2000 Plus grant funds for the development of total grazing pressure (TGP) systems

40. Did you receive WEST 2000 Plus grant funds for land system fencing?

41. Did you receive WEST 2000 Plus grant funds for water supply relocation?

42. Did you receive WEST 2000 Plus grant funds for earthworks on your property?

Assistance with NRM

Total grazing pressure system

*

Land Fencing

*

Water Supply

*

Earthworks

*

Rabbit Control

Some people adopted a new enterprise nmlkj

Some people expressed an interest but did not adopt a new enterprise nmlkj

People were not interested nmlkj

Yes nmlkj

No nmlkj

Yes nmlkj No nmlkj

Yes nmlkj No nmlkj

Yes nmlkj No nmlkj

Yes nmlkj No nmlkj

EVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAM43. Did you receive WEST 2000 Plus grant funds for rabbit control?

44. Did you receive WEST 2000 Plus grant funds for woody weed management?

45. Did you receive WEST 2000 Plus grant funds for other NRM activity? (e.g. moved watering points, fenced an area for conservation, etc)

46. Overall, how has the development of the TGP system affected your business? (tick all that apply)

47. Overall, how has the land system fencing affected your business? (tick all that apply)

*

Woody Weeds

*

Other

*

Effects of TGP (If you responded YES to Question 39)

Effects of fencing(If you responded YES to Question 40)

Effects of water works(If you responded YES to Question 41)

Yes nmlkj No nmlkj

Yes nmlkj No nmlkj

Yes nmlkj No nmlkj













EVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAM48. Overall, how has the water supply relocation affected your business? (tick all that apply)

49. Overall, how have the earthworks on your property affected your business? (tick all that apply)

50. Overall, how have the rabbit control actions affected your business? (tick all that apply)

Effects of earthworks(If you responded YES to Question 42)

Effects of Rabbit Control(If you responded YES to Question 43)

Effect of woody weed management (If you responded YES to Question 44)



















EVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAMEVALUATION OF WEST 2000 PLUS PROGRAM51. Overall, how has woody weed management affected your business? (tick all that apply)

52. Overall, how have other natural resource management initiatives affected your business? (tick all that apply)

53. Have you been encouraged by your experience with your natural resource management project(s) to continue to invest in NRM

54. Would you like to share any other thoughts about the impacts of the WEST 2000 and WEST 2000 Plus programs have had in the Western Division?

Effect of other NRM initiatives (If you responded YES to Question 45)

Perceptions

Concluding Comments

55

66













Yes nmlkj

Not really nmlkj

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APPENDIX B ANNUAL TURNOVER OF GRAZING, AGRICULTURAL AND MIXED WESTERN LAND LEASES, 2004-2013

Table-B-1 Number of transfers of Western Lands Leases for the purpose of grazing, 2004-2013

Year

RMI District

TOTAL Cobar/

Condobolin/

Nymagee

Balranald Wilcannia Walgett Bourke/

Brewarrina

Wentworth/

Buronga

Broken

Hill

Not

specified

2004 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 76 76

2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 143 143

2006 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 275 275

2007 34 39 15 36 46 35 26 69 300

2008 54 33 20 46 53 20 16 - 242

2009 29 19 29 43 19 23 12 - 174

2010 46 15 25 38 50 15 8 - 197

2011 33 21 5 34 23 40 8 1 165

2012 20 18 18 18 30 24 32 - 160

2013 23 27 17 30 43 25 11 - 176

TOTAL 239 172 129 245 264 182 113 564 1,908

Grazing leases have no purpose other than grazing. Where transfers of grazing leases occurred in parcels with other lease types only the grazing leases have been counted. The number of grazing leases is given in the overall WLL database as 3854. Years overlapping with the data provided in Table B-2 are shaded. Derived from data provided by NSW Trade & Investment, Crown Lands, Western Region, Dubbo)

Table-B-2 Number of transfers of Western Lands Leases for the purpose of agriculture, 2004-2013

Year

RMI District

TOTAL

Cobar/

Condobolin Balranald Wilcannia Walgett Bourke

Wentworth/

Buronga

Broken

Hill

Not

specified

2004 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1 1

2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 11 11

2006 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 17 17

2007 3 1 1 1 - 1 1 4 12

2008 - 1 - - 1 1 1 2 6

2009 1 2 - 2 - 1 - - 6

2010 1 3 4 2 3 1 1 1 16

2011 2 2 26 - 1 - - - 31

2012 - 2 3 - 7 3 - - 15

2013 - 1 5 - 2 1 1 - 10

TOTAL 7 12 39 5 14 8 4 36 125

Leases transferred had purposes of agriculture, mixed farming, cultivation, irrigation, orchard, vineyard, horticulture, garden, vegetable garden, dairy, poultry, piggery, access to water, conservation, residence, farm tourism, accommodation paddock, [minor] grazing). Other purposes identified for agricultural leases in the overall WLL data base are domestic garden, market garden, erection of dwelling, irrigation works, local government purposes, tank, drainage, feed lot, channel, business purposes, and aquaculture. The number of these leases given in the overall WLL database is 444. Years overlapping with the data provided in Table B-2 are shaded.

Derived from data provided by NSW Trade & Investment, Crown Lands, Western Region, Dubbo.

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Table-B-3 Number of transfers of Western Lands Leases for the purpose of grazing in combination with other purposes (mixed grazing leases), 2004-2013

Year

RMI District

TOTAL

Cobar Balranald/

Carrathool

Wilcannia Walgett Bourke Wentworth Broken

Hill

Not

specified

2004 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 6 6

2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 7 7

2006 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 19 19

2007 6 3 1 1 3 - 8 8 30

2008 1 4 - 2 12 - - - 19

2009 5 2 3 3 7 2 1 - 23

2010 5 1 2 3 - 3 6 - 20

2011 6 4 4 2 3 2 4 - 25

2012 6 2 - - 10 - 1 - 19

2013 3 3 2 3 1 2 - - 14

TOTAL 32 19 12 14 36 9 20 40 182

Other purposes associated with the leases transferred included cultivation, farm tourism, recreational hunting, film making, conservation, business, feed lot, accommodation/ accommodation paddock, residence and water conservation. Where transfers of mixed grazing leases occurred in parcels with other lease types only the mixed grazing leases have been counted. Other purposes associated with grazing in the overall WLL data base include recreation, tank, dam, bore site, storage purposes, access to water, erection of dwelling, stables, pastoral purposes, shooting range, government purposes, horticulture and silviculture. The number of these leases given in the overall WLL data is 439. Years overlapping with the data provided in Table B-2 are shaded.

Derived from data provided by NSW Trade & Investment, Crown Lands, Western Region, Dubbo

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