Evaluating variation in abundance of Arctic cisco Evaluating variation in abundance of Arctic cisco in the Colville River using existing scientific in the Colville River using existing scientific

information and traditional knowledge information and traditional knowledge     

20062006 Marine Science SymposiumMarine Science Symposium

Stephen M. MurphyStephen M. Murphy ABR, Inc.—Environmental Research & ABR, Inc.—Environmental Research & ServicesServicesStephen R. Braund Stephen R. Braund Stephen R. Braund & AssociatesStephen R. Braund & AssociatesFranz J. MueterFranz J. Mueter Sigma Plus, Statistical Consulting Services Sigma Plus, Statistical Consulting Services Lawrence L. MoultonLawrence L. Moulton MJM ResearchMJM Research

BACKGROUNDBACKGROUND

• Arctic cisco (Arctic cisco (QaaktaqQaaktaq) are an important subsistence ) are an important subsistence resource for the residents of Nuiqsutresource for the residents of Nuiqsut

• The subsistence fishery on the Colville delta starting The subsistence fishery on the Colville delta starting experiencing a decline in harvest rates in 1998experiencing a decline in harvest rates in 1998

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Qaaktaq Catch Rates 1985-2004(Nigliq Channel)

BACKGROUNDBACKGROUND

• Arctic cisco (Qaaktaq) are an important subsistence resource for the residents of Nuiqsut

• The subsistence fishery on the Colville delta starting experiencing a decline in harvest rates in 1998

• Because Arctic cisco potentially could be affected by offshore oil Because Arctic cisco potentially could be affected by offshore oil and gas development, MMS decided to investigate whether and gas development, MMS decided to investigate whether offshore development was affecting the fisheryoffshore development was affecting the fishery

• MMS convened a workshop on Arctic cisco in Nuiqsut in Nov. MMS convened a workshop on Arctic cisco in Nuiqsut in Nov. 2003 that included local experts and scientists. One conclusion 2003 that included local experts and scientists. One conclusion of the workshop was that much could be gained from a of the workshop was that much could be gained from a multidisciplinary exploration of existing datamultidisciplinary exploration of existing data

• This study was developed as a direct result of that workshopThis study was developed as a direct result of that workshop

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Qaaktaq Catch Rates 1985-2004(Nigliq Channel)

STUDY APPROACHSTUDY APPROACH

• Collection, analysis, and synthesis of long-term data Collection, analysis, and synthesis of long-term data sets on Arctic cisco and regional data sets on sets on Arctic cisco and regional data sets on weather, oceanographic conditions, and development weather, oceanographic conditions, and development activities that may be influencing key life history activities that may be influencing key life history events that take place in the Beaufort Sea and events that take place in the Beaufort Sea and Colville RiverColville River

• Engagement of a Panel of Local Experts from Engagement of a Panel of Local Experts from Nuiqsut to help guide the analytical work and Nuiqsut to help guide the analytical work and interpretation of resultsinterpretation of results

LOCAL PANEL OF EXPERTSLOCAL PANEL OF EXPERTS

• Nuiqsut residents nominated and chose a PanelNuiqsut residents nominated and chose a Panel• Input from the Panel will be important for identifying Input from the Panel will be important for identifying

data for use in the analyses and for deriving alternate data for use in the analyses and for deriving alternate hypotheses hypotheses

• Traditional knowledge will be used as more than just Traditional knowledge will be used as more than just anecdotal information, but rather will form the basis anecdotal information, but rather will form the basis for many of the analyses we will conduct for many of the analyses we will conduct

Hypothesis Testing

Panel of Local ExpertsValidating Interpretations

Sensitivity AnalysisData Collection

Synthesis, Conclusions, and Recommendations

Data Exploration

Interrelationships and Flow of Work Among Tasks Interrelationships and Flow of Work Among Tasks

At Least Four MeetingsAt Least Four Meetings of the Scientific of the Scientific Team and the Panel of Local Experts wTeam and the Panel of Local Experts will be ill be

held in Nuiqsut to:held in Nuiqsut to:

• ensure that the scientists are exposed to and ensure that the scientists are exposed to and understand local and traditional knowledge about understand local and traditional knowledge about Arctic cisco Arctic cisco

• to infuse the information from the local experts into to infuse the information from the local experts into the analytical process and, thereby, guide the the analytical process and, thereby, guide the direction and focus of the analyses and direction and focus of the analyses and interpretations of resultsinterpretations of results

• gain consensus where possiblegain consensus where possible

Integration of Western Science & Integration of Western Science & Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK)Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK)

• Requires a conceptual understanding of both Requires a conceptual understanding of both perspectivesperspectives

• Requires an operational plan to:Requires an operational plan to:– facilitate communicationfacilitate communication– exchange ideas at appropriate technical levelexchange ideas at appropriate technical level– work toward project objectiveswork toward project objectives

• Need to truly integrate the Native communities input into Need to truly integrate the Native communities input into scientific process to avoid having residents think their scientific process to avoid having residents think their knowledge and views were insufficiently consideredknowledge and views were insufficiently considered

Life History and Habitats of the Arctic CiscoLife History and Habitats of the Arctic Cisco

  Arctic cisco that occur in Alaska originate from the Arctic cisco that occur in Alaska originate from the Mackenzie River system in Canada Mackenzie River system in Canada

      Young-of-the-year Arctic cisco are transported via Young-of-the-year Arctic cisco are transported via ocean currents westward to the Colville Riverocean currents westward to the Colville River

      Recruitment strength has been correlated with Recruitment strength has been correlated with easterly winds in the Beaufort Sea region easterly winds in the Beaufort Sea region

     Colville River is the only drainage west of the Colville River is the only drainage west of the Mackenzie that supports significant overwintering Mackenzie that supports significant overwintering populations of subadult Arctic ciscopopulations of subadult Arctic cisco

Beaufort Sea and Beaufort Sea and QaaqtaqQaaqtaq life history life history

160 W 150 W 140 W 130 W

72 N

70 N

68 N

Barrow

Colville R.Mackenzie Bay

Prudhoe Bay

ALASKA

CANADA

Map

BeaufortGyre

Undercurrent

Number of fish and wind speedNumber of fish and wind speed

}Recruitmentanomaly

2001

Average wind speed (m/sec)

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East windWest wind

Age-5 CPUE vs. recruitmentAge-5 CPUE vs. recruitment

Recruitment index

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R2 = 0.70

Factors Potentially Impacting Arctic Factors Potentially Impacting Arctic Cisco Identified by Scientists and/or Cisco Identified by Scientists and/or

Inupiat Experts Inupiat Experts

• Changes in Beaufort Sea circulation patternsChanges in Beaufort Sea circulation patterns• CausewaysCauseways• Construction of Undersea PipelinesConstruction of Undersea Pipelines• Ice Bridges and Ice RoadsIce Bridges and Ice Roads• Introduction of contaminants from drilling mudsIntroduction of contaminants from drilling muds• Changes in river morphologyChanges in river morphology• Recruitment at the Mackenzie RiverRecruitment at the Mackenzie River• Cumulative effects of oil developmentCumulative effects of oil development• Harvest by subsistence and commercial fisheriesHarvest by subsistence and commercial fisheries

Causeway-related concernsCauseway-related concerns

• Do causeways impede migration and affect Do causeways impede migration and affect recruitment?recruitment?– Physical barrierPhysical barrier– Change in local upwelling / salinityChange in local upwelling / salinity

• Are growth, condition, and/or survival of subadults Are growth, condition, and/or survival of subadults adversely affected by changes in the quality or adversely affected by changes in the quality or quantity of summer feeding habitat?quantity of summer feeding habitat?

Prudhoe Bay: Offshore structuresPrudhoe Bay: Offshore structuresand fyke net sampling sitesand fyke net sampling sites

EndicottCauseway

From: Fechhelm et al. (2004)

West DockCauseway

2 m

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Anomalies in number of fishAnomalies in number of fish

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Take Home MessagesTake Home Messages

• The Native community in Alaska is becoming The Native community in Alaska is becoming increasing active as stakeholders in resource increasing active as stakeholders in resource managementmanagement

• The scientific community needs to figure out how to The scientific community needs to figure out how to effectively incorporate the knowledge, experience, effectively incorporate the knowledge, experience, and concerns of the Native community into their and concerns of the Native community into their researchresearch

• Establishing trusting relationships and methods for Establishing trusting relationships and methods for effective information transfer are criticaleffective information transfer are critical