Petroleum Potential of the Arctic Offshore of Alaska€¦ · quat. (argillite) endicott gp shublik...
Transcript of Petroleum Potential of the Arctic Offshore of Alaska€¦ · quat. (argillite) endicott gp shublik...
Petroleum Potential of the Arctic Offshore of AlaskaGeophysical
Society of AlaskaAnchorage, AK
Kirk SherwoodGeologist, MMS
April 6, 2006
Colleagues Sharing BlameBeaufort Sea Assessment: Peter Johnson &
Jim ScherrEconomic Assessment: Jim Craig, Larry
Cooke, & Cameron ReitmeierHQ Computer Model Guys: Barry Dickerson &
John Buffington
Outline
• Petroleum-rich Arctic Alaska offshore province
• MMS Assessment method• Economic assessment results
for Arctic offshore
Norton
Aleut Bsn St. GeorgeShumagin
Exploration/COST WellGas Discovery Image from July 1998
Prudhoe Bay
TAPS
Arctic Offshore = Chukchi & Beaufort Sea Planning Areas
Arctic AK Petroleum Province = North Slope & Offshore Shelves
2006 Undiscovered Oil and GasRisked, Technically Recoverable
Commodity >95 % chance
MEAN > 5 % chance
Gas (Trillion Cubic Feet)
11.0 104.4 281.7
Oil (billion barrels)
2.7 23.6 63.3
Beaufort & Chukchi Seas
Yr 2000: 92.2 Tcfg + 22.4 Bbo
• 79% of Alaska Offshore Gas & 89% of Alaska Offshore Oil (2006-Undiscovered)
• Offshore has 39% of Total Arctic AK Endowment (117 Bboe)*
*Northern Alaska “Endowment”, 46.6 Bbo + 139 Tcfg**= 71.3 BboeArctic Offshore “Endowment”, 24.7 Bbo + 118 Tcfg = 45.7 Bboe
** Undiscovered + Discovered EUR, D.W. Houseknecht, 2006, pers. comm., State AK DOG, 2004
The Arctic Offshore Accounts For:
Why is Arctic Offshore So Rich?
Reason #1: Geological continuity with highly successful northern Alaska petroleum province
AGE MYBP
MAJORSEQUENCE
MAJOR ARCTICPETROLEUM DISCOVERIES
CEN
OZO
ICM
ESO
ZOIC
PALE
OZO
IC
MISS.
PENN.
PERM.
TRIA
SSIC
JUR
ASSIC
CR
ETA
CEO
US
TER
TIARY
QUAT.
(ARGILLITE)
ENDICOTT GP
SHUBLIK FM
SAG RIVER FM
PEBBLE SH.
NANUSHUK GP
COLVILLE GP
SAGAVANIRKTOK FM.
GUBIK FM(NORTH)(SOUTH)
CHUKCHI SEA, BEAUFORT SEA, ARCTIC ALASKASTRATIGRAPHIC COLUMN
STRATIGRAPHY LITH.S N
TOROK FM
DEVO
NIA
N
LCU
TAB
KIN
GA
K F
M
ETIV
LUK
GP.
KAY
AK
/K
AN
AYU
T/H
UN
T FO
RK
KU
NA
FM.
OTU
K F
M.
SIK
SIK
. FM
.
UPP
ER
KUPARUK SS
KAVIK SHALE
SAD
LERO
CH
ITG
P
LISBURNE GP
?
LOW
ER
IVISHAK FM
ECHOOKA FM
WACHSMUTH FM.
KAYAK/KEKIKTUK FMS.
ALAPAH FM.
WAHOO FM.
BU
BROOKIAN
ELLESMERIAN
ACOUSTICBASEMENT
100
2
200
300
SEQUENCE
SEQUENCE
FRANKLINIANSEQUENCE
BEAUFORTIANSEQUENCE
PU
LOWER
UPPERELLESMERIANSEQUENCE
JURASSIC SS*
BARROW SSSIMPSON SS
PT. THOMSON SS
JU
NOT PRESENT INMOST OF NPR-A
(Maximum Thickness = 160m)
PLAYSEQUENCE
BROOK. TOPSET
IN NPR-A
EXTREMELY THIN
PLAYS 13, 14, 20
BROOK.TURBIDITESPLAYS 11,12,19,22
BEAUFORTIAN
SADLEROCHIT GP
PLAYS 3,6,7,15,16
PLAYS 8,9,10,17,18, 22
LISBURNE GPPLAYS 3,4,5,21
ENDICOTT GPPLAYS 1,2,3,21
BROOK. TOPSETPLAYS 13, 14, 20
BROOK.TURBIDITESPLAYS 11,12,19,23
FORTRESS MTN. FM.
OKPIK. FM.
?
??
CANADIAN BEAUFORT: 17 GAS, 22 OIL & OIL AND GAS FIELDS; REC. RESERVES = 1.1 BBOR AND 12.7 TCFGR
SCHRADER BLUFF (400 MMBOR)WEST SAK (300-500 MMBOR)
UMIAT (70 MMBOR, 0.05 TCFGR)
PT THOMSON (300 MMBOR, 5 TCFGR)KUPARUK (2.6 BBOR, 1.1 TCFGR)MILNE PT (404 MMBOR); PALM (35 MMBOR)
PRUDHOE BAY(13.7 BBOR, 26 TCFGR)
LISBURNE POOL-PRUDHOEBAY (164 MMBOR, 276 BCFGR)
ENDICOTT (582 MMBOR, 0.9 TCFGR)
BADAMI (11 MMBOR), FLAXMAN ISLAND (RU)
WALAKPA (32 BCFG)
S.BARROW + E.BARROW (39 BCFGR)SIKULIK (12 BCFGR)PRUDHOE BAY (4 BBOIP)
SAND PIPER (RU)
LIBERTY-TERN (138 MMBOR)
PT MCINTYRE (549 MMBOR)
HAMMERHEAD (RU)
NIAKUK (65 MMBOR, 0.03 TCFGR)
NORTHSTAR (176 MMBOR)
KUVLUM (325 MMBOR)
GUBIK AND E. UMIAT (350-900 BCFGR)
GWYDYR BAY (30-60 MMBOR)N. PRUDHOE (4 MMBOR)
ALPINE (500 MMBOR)
IVISHAK (ENDICOTT) (6+MMBOR)
FISH CREEK (RU)SIMPSON (12 MMBOR)
{
TARN (50 MMBOR); MELTWATER (52 MMBOR); NANUQ (40 MMBOR); SOURDOUGH (100 MMBOR)
{
BrookianSequence
Beaufortian = RiftSequence
EllesmerianSequence
FranklinianSequence
Stratigraphic Continuity Across Arctic Alaska & OCS
OIL
PIP
ELIN
E
NPR-A
ANWR
ALASKA (U.S. )C
ANADA
Beau
fort
Sea-
Can
adia
n W
ater
s
PRUDHOEKUPARUK
LIBERTYNORTHSTAR
WALAKPABARROW
FISH CREEK
WOLFCREEK
UMIAT
EASTUMIAT
GUBIK
SIMPSON
MEADE
SQUARE LAKEKEMIK KAVIK
PT. THOMSONSOURDOUGH
BADAMIOUMALIK
ALPINE
KUVLUMHAMMERHEAD
SANDPIPER
STINSON
CABOTFIREWEED
GALAHADMARS
ANTARES ORION
MUKLUK
KLONDIKE
BURGER
DIAMOND
POPCORNCRACKERJACK
CORONAWW
BELCHER
AURORA
K.I.C. #1
Nuiqsut
Pt. Barrow
Wainwright
PointLay
PointHope
Kaktovik
ELLESMERIAN ROCKS IN SUBSURFACE STABLE SHELF SETTINGS
ELLESMERIAN ROCKS IN SUBSURFACE RIFT BASINS
ELLESMERIAN-EQUIVALENT ROCKS AT SURFACE
EXPLORATORYWELL, P&A
OILFIELD
GASFIELD
0 150
50 0 150MILES
KILOMETERS
50SEISMIC PROFILE
174° 172° 170° 168° 166° 164° 162° 160° 158° 148°150°152°154°156°
72°
70°
68°
150°160°
170°
140°
68°
70°
72°
146° 144° 142° 140° 138° 136°
73°
ELLESMERIAN SEQUENCE BASINS
Sherwood\....\Figure Chuk-06-Map-Ellesmerian Basins.cdr
Chu
kchi
Sea
-Rus
sian
Wat
ers
?
ARCTICPLATFORM
"BARROVIA" - ELLESMERIAN SEDIMENT SOURCE TERRANE
(Now Rifted Away)
CHUK
CHI
PLA
TFO
RM
SED
. SO
URC
E
HA
NN
A TROUGH
A
B
A
C A IRCT L
AA
SKSIN
BO
R
S
O
K RANG RE F ONT
BROOKS RANGE FRTON
HERALD THRU
ST
ANWR
OIL
PIP
ELIN
E
NPR-A ALASKA (U.S. )C
ANADA
Beau
fort
Sea-
Can
adia
n W
ater
s
K.I.C. Lands
1002 AREA
PRUDHOEKUPARUK
LIBERTYNORTHSTAR
WALAKPA
BARROW
FISH CREEK
WOLFCREEK UMIAT
EASTUMIAT
GUBIK
SIMPSON
MEADE
SQUARE LAKE
KEMIKKAVIK
PT. THOMSONSOURDOUGH
BADAMIOUMALIKALPINE
KUVLUMHAMMERHEAD
SANDPIPER
STINSON
CABOTFIREWEED
GALAHADMARS
ANTARESORION
MUKLUK
KLONDIKE BURGER
DIAMOND
POPCORN
CRACKERJACK
CORONAWW
BELCHER
AURORA
K.I.C. #1
Nuiqsut
Barrow
Wainwright
PointLay
PointHope
Kaktovik
H
INGE
LINE
HINGE LINE
HINGE LINE
Arctic Ocean
Chukchi Sea
Beau
fort
Sea-
Can
adia
n W
ater
s
RIFT SEQUENCE TECTONIC FEATURES
Shelf edge onshore from Bird (1988, fig. 16.15) and Moore et al. (1994, fig. 13)
DINKUM GRABEN
174° 172° 170° 168° 166° 164° 162° 160° 158° 148°150°152°154°156°
72°
70°
68°
150°160°
170°
140°
68°
70°
72°
146° 144° 142° 140° 138° 136°
73°
Chu
kchi
Sea
-Rus
sian
Wat
ers
BO
R
S
O
K RANG RE F ONT
BROOKS RANGE FRTON
HERALD THRU
ST
EXPLORATORYWELL, P&A
OILFIELD
GASFIELD
0 150
50 0 150MILES
KILOMETERS
50SEISMIC PROFILE
Rift Grabens
Active Rift Zone
Area Underlain by Stable Shelf and Basin Sequences Equivalent to Rift Sequence
Barrow Arch
Hypothetical Rift System
DEEP BASIN
SHELF EDGE
??
B
FEAU
R
ORT IFT SYSTEM
CHUKCHIRIFT
TRANSFO
RM FT ?
Sherwood\...\Figure Chuk-07-Rift Basins.cdr
OIL
PIP
ELIN
E
KUVLUM
CORONA
NPR-AANWR
ALASKA (U.S. )C
ANADA
Beau
fort
Sea-
Can
adia
n W
ater
s
PRUDHOEKUPARUK
LIBERTY
WALAKPABARROW
FISH CREEK
WOLFCREEK
UMIAT
EASTUMIAT
GUBIK
SIMPSON
MEADE
SQUARE LAKE
KEMIK
BADAMIOUMALIK
ALPINE
HAMMERHEAD
CABOT
GALAHADMARS
MUKLUK
KLONDIKE BURGER
DIAMOND
POPCORN
CRACKER-JACK
BELCHER
AUR-ORA
K.I.C. #1
Nuiqsut
Barrow
Wainwright
PointLay
PointHope
EXPLORATORYWELL, P&A
OILFIELD
GASFIELD
0 150
50 0 150MILES
KILOMETERS
50SEISMIC PROFILE
174° 172° 170° 168° 166° 164° 162° 160° 158° 148°150°152°154°156°
72°
70°
68°
150°160°
170°
140°
68°
70°
72°
146° 144° 142° 140° 138° 136°
73°
BROOKIAN SEQUENCE BASINS AND PLATFORMS
Sherwood\...\Figure Chuk-08-Brookian Basins.cdr
Chu
kchi
Sea
-Rus
sian
Wat
ers
Beau
fort
Sea-
Can
adia
n W
ater
s
NUWUK BASIN
ARCTIC PLATFORM
CHUK
CHI
PLAT
FORM
NORTHCHUKCHI
HIGH
COLVILLE BASIN
HOPEBASIN
COLVILLE BASIN
KAKTOVIK BASIN500 mHinge Line
N Edge Foldbelt
N EdgeFoldbelt
N EdgeFoldbelt
100 m
TERTIARY
CRETACEOUS
NORTH CHUKCHI BASIN
BO
R
S
O
K RANG RE F ONT
BROOKS RANGE FRTON
HERALD THRU
ST
Why So Rich?
Reason #2: Presence of many complex structures which created numerous potential traps
APP
RO
XIM
ATE
DEP
THS
(FEE
T, M
ETER
S)
2,000 (610 m)
0
4,000 (1,220 m)
6,000 (1,830 m)
8,000 (2,440 m)
10,000 (3,050 m)
12,000 (3,660 m)14,000 (4,270 m)16,000 (4,880 m)18,000 (5,490 m)
20,000 (6,100 m)
25,000 (7,625 m)
30,000 (9,150 m)
35,000 (10,675 m)
40,000 (12,200 m)
APP
RO
XIM
ATE
DEP
THS
(FEE
T, M
ETER
S)
2,000 (610 m)
0
4,000 (1,220 m)
6,000 (1,830 m)
8,000 (2,440 m)
10,000 (3,050 m)
12,000 (3,660 m)14,000 (4,270 m)16,000 (4,880 m)18,000 (5,490 m)20,000 (6,100 m)
25,000 (7,625 m)
30,000 (9,150 m)
35,000 (10,675 m)
40,000 (12,200 m)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
TIM
E (S
EC)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
TIM
E (S
EC)
10 MILES
10 KILOMETERS
? ? ?
PEARD S. BARROW 1TUNALIKAKULIKTUNGAKCREEK
Albian
Albian
Pl
Pl: Pennsylvanian Lisburne Gp. carbonates
Pe(e)
Pe(e): Permian Echooka Formation
K(psh)
K(psh): Cretaceous (Haut.-Barrem.) Pebble Shale
Gap = 44 km
Interpretation of unmigrated line published by Thurston and Theiss (MMS 87-0046, 1987, pl. 8)
Interpretation of unmigrated line published by Thurston and Theiss (MMS 87-0046, 1987, pl. 2)
HOPE BASIN(Paleocene and Younger)
HERALD ARCH FOLD AND THRUST BELTHANNA TROUGH - ARCTIC ALASKA BASIN
(ELLESMERIAN)
COLVILLE FOREDEEP BASIN(BROOKIAN)
ARCTIC PLATFORMBARROW
ARCH
BROOKIAN SEQUENCE
“RIFT” SEQUENCE
ELLESMERIAN
SEQUENCE
BASEMENT?
EXOTIC TERRANE OF MODESTLY DEFORMED PRE-MISSISSIPPIAN
ROCKS
ZEROELLESMERIAN
Oligocene-HolocenePlay Sequence
Oligocene-HolocenePlay Sequence
“Eocene” PlaySequence
BASEMENT
BROOKIANSEQUENCE
BASEMENT
ELLESMERIAN SEQ.
“RIFT”SEQUENCE
HERALD TH
RUST
NORTHEASTSOUTHWEST
LINE 5
ANWR
EXPLORATORYWELL, P&A
OILFIELD
GASFIELD
0 150
50 0 150MILES
KILOMETERS
50SEISMIC PROFILE
OIL
PIP
ELIN
E
NPR-A ALASKA (U.S. )C
ANA DA
Beau
fort
Sea-
Can
adia
n W
ater
s
6
43
5
7
8
9
2
1
PRUDHOEKUPARUK
LIBERTYNORTHSTAR
WALAKPA
BARROW
FISH CREEK
WOLFCREEK UMIAT
EASTUMIAT
GUBIK
SIMPSON
MEADE
SQUARE LAKE
KEMIKKAVIK
PT. THOMSONSOURDOUGH
BADAMIOUMALIKALPINE
KUVLUMHAMMERHEAD
SANDPIPER
STINSON
CABOT
FIREWEED
GALAHADMARS
ANTARESORION
MUKLUK
KLONDIKE BURGER
DIAMOND
POPCORN
CRACKERJACK
CORONAWW
BELCHER
AURORAK.I.C. #1
Nuiqsut
Barrow
Wainwright
PointLay
PointHope
Kaktovik
Arctic Ocean
Chukchi Sea
Beau
fort
Sea-
Can
adia
n W
ater
s
Shelf edge onshore from Bird (1988, fig. 16.15) and Moore et al. (1994, fig. 13)
INDEX MAP174° 172° 170° 168° 166° 164° 162° 160° 158° 148°150°152°154°156°
72°
70°
68°
150°160°
170°
140°
68°
70°
72°
146° 144° 142° 140° 138° 136°
73°
Chu
kchi
Sea
-Rus
sian
Wat
ers
BO
R
S
O
K RANG RE F ONT
BROOKS RANGE FRTON
HERALD THRU
ST
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
TIM
E (S
EC)
10 MILES
10 KILOMETERS
KLONDIKE
Pe(k?)
Pe(k?): Permian, shales equivalent to Kavik Formation (Sadlerochit Gp.)
APP
RO
XIM
ATE
DEP
THS
(FEE
T, M
ETER
S)
2,000 (610 m)
0
4,000 (1,220 m)
6,000 (1,830 m)
8,000 (2,440 m)
10,000 (3,050 m)
12,000 (3,660 m)14,000 (4,270 m)16,000 (4,880 m)18,000 (5,490 m)
20,000 (6,100 m)
25,000 (7,625 m)
30,000 (9,150 m)
35,000 (10,675 m)
40,000 (12,200 m)
CHUKCHIPLATFORM
ELLESMERIANRIFT BASIN
(Hanna Trough)EASTWEST
BROOKIANSEQUENCE
RIFT SEQUENCE
ELLESMERIANSEQUENCE
ELLESMERIANSEQUENCE
BASEMENT
Migrated line. Sherwood et al. (GSA Spec. Paper on Bering Sea-Chukchi (in press) 2001, pl. 2, line 1)
LINE 3
ANWR
EXPLORATORYWELL, P&A
OILFIELD
GASFIELD
0 150
50 0 150MILES
KILOMETERS
50SEISMIC PROFILE
OIL
PIP
ELIN
E
NPR-A ALASKA (U.S. )C
ANA DA
Beau
fort
Sea-
Can
adia
n W
ater
s
6
43
5
7
8
9
2
1
PRUDHOEKUPARUK
LIBERTYNORTHSTAR
WALAKPA
BARROW
FISH CREEK
WOLFCREEK UMIAT
EASTUMIAT
GUBIK
SIMPSON
MEADE
SQUARE LAKE
KEMIKKAVIK
PT. THOMSONSOURDOUGH
BADAMIOUMALIKALPINE
KUVLUMHAMMERHEAD
SANDPIPER
STINSON
CABOT
FIREWEED
GALAHADMARS
ANTARESORION
MUKLUK
KLONDIKE BURGER
DIAMOND
POPCORN
CRACKERJACK
CORONAWW
BELCHER
AURORAK.I.C. #1
Nuiqsut
Barrow
Wainwright
PointLay
PointHope
Kaktovik
Arctic Ocean
Chukchi Sea
Beau
fort
Sea-
Can
adia
n W
ater
s
Shelf edge onshore from Bird (1988, fig. 16.15) and Moore et al. (1994, fig. 13)
INDEX MAP174° 172° 170° 168° 166° 164° 162° 160° 158° 148°150°152°154°156°
72°
70°
68°
150°160°
170°
140°
68°
70°
72°
146° 144° 142° 140° 138° 136°
73°
Chu
kchi
Sea
-Rus
sian
Wat
ers
BO
R
S
O
K RANG RE F ONT
BROOKS RANGE FRTON
HERALD THRU
ST
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
TIM
E (S
EC)
APP
RO
XIM
ATE
DEP
THS
(FEE
T, M
ETER
S)
2,000 (610 m)
0
4,000 (1,220 m)
6,000 (1,830 m)
8,000 (2,440 m)
10,000 (3,050 m)
12,000 (3,660 m)14,000 (4,270 m)16,000 (4,880 m)18,000 (5,490 m)20,000 (6,100 m)
25,000 (7,625 m)
30,000 (9,150 m)
35,000 (10,675 m)
40,000 (12,200 m)
10 MILES
10 KILOMETERS
DIAMONDBURGER
Pel
Pel: Permian Lisburne Gp. carbonates
Jk(e-m)
Jk(e-m): Jurassic (E.-M.) Kingak Shale
WEST EAST
ELLESMERIAN RIFT BASIN(Hanna Trough)
ARCTICPLATFORM
Migrated line. Sherwood et al. (GSA Spec. Paper on Bering Sea-Chukchi (in press) 2001, pl. 2, line 2)
BROOKIANSEQUENCE
RIFTSEQUENCE
ELLESMERIANSEQUENCE
BASEMENT
LINE 4
ANWR
EXPLORATORYWELL, P&A
OILFIELD
GASFIELD
0 150
50 0 150MILES
KILOMETERS
50SEISMIC PROFILE
OIL
PIP
ELIN
E
NPR-A ALASKA (U.S. )C
ANADA
Beau
fort
Sea-
Can
adia
n W
ater
s
6
43
5
7
8
9
2
1
PRUDHOEKUPARUK
LIBERTYNORTHSTAR
WALAKPA
BARROW
FISH CREEK
WOLFCREEK UMIAT
EASTUMIAT
GUBIK
SIMPSON
MEADE
SQUARE LAKE
KEMIKKAVIK
PT. THOMSONSOURDOUGH
BADAMIOUMALIKALPINE
KUVLUMHAMMERHEAD
SANDPIPER
STINSON
CABOT
FIREWEED
GALAHADMARS
ANTARESORION
MUKLUK
KLONDIKE BURGER
DIAMOND
POPCORN
CRACKERJACK
CORONAWW
BELCHER
AURORAK.I.C. #1
Nuiqsut
Barrow
Wainwright
PointLay
PointHope
Kaktovik
Arctic Ocean
Chukchi Sea
Beau
fort
Sea-
Can
adia
n W
ater
s
Shelf edge onshore from Bird (1988, fig. 16.15) and Moore et al. (1994, fig. 13)
INDEX MAP174° 172° 170° 168° 166° 164° 162° 160° 158° 148°150°152°154°156°
72°
70°
68°
150°160°
170°
140°
68°
70°
72°
146° 144° 142° 140° 138° 136°
73°
Chu
kchi
Sea
-Rus
sian
Wat
ers
BO
R
S
O
K RANG RE F ONT
BROOKS RANGE FRTON
HERALD THRU
ST
ANWR
EXPLORATORYWELL, P&A
OILFIELD
GASFIELD
0 150
50 0 150MILES
KILOMETERS
50SEISMIC PROFILE
OIL
PIP
ELIN
E
NPR-A ALASKA (U.S. )C
ANADA
Beau
fort
S ea-
Can
adia
n W
ater
s
6
43
5
7
8
9
2
1
PRUDHOEKUPARUK
LIBERTYNORTHSTAR
WALAKPA
BARROW
FISH CREEK
WOLFCREEK UMIAT
EASTUMIAT
GUBIK
SIMPSON
MEADE
SQUARE LAKE
KEMIKKAVIK
PT. THOMSONSOURDOUGH
BADAMIOUMALIKALPINE
KUVLUMHAMMERHEAD
SANDPIPER
STINSON
CABOT
FIREWEED
GALAHADMARS
ANTARESORION
MUKLUK
KLONDIKE BURGER
DIAMOND
POPCORN
CRACKERJACK
CORONAWW
BELCHER
AURORAK.I.C. #1
Nuiqsut
Barrow
Wainwright
PointLay
PointHope
Kaktovik
Arctic Ocean
Chukchi Sea
Beau
fort
S ea-
Can
adia
n W
ater
s
Shelf edge onshore from Bird (1988, fig. 16.15) and Moore et al. (1994, fig. 13)
INDEX MAP174° 172° 170° 168° 166° 164° 162° 160° 158° 148°150°152°154°156°
72°
70°
68°
150°160°
170°
140°
68°
70°
72°
146° 144° 142° 140° 138° 136°
73°
Chu
kchi
Sea
-Rus
sian
Wat
ers
BO
R
S
O
K RANG RE F ONT
BROOKS RANGE FRTON
HERALD THRU
ST
0
1
2
3
TIM
E (S
EC)
4
5
6
7
8
APP
RO
XIM
ATE
DEP
THS
(FEE
T, M
ETER
S)
2,000 (610 m)
4,000 (1,220 m)
6,000 (1,830 m)
8,000 (2,440 m)
10,000 (3,050 m)
12,000 (3,660 m)14,000 (4,270 m)
16,000 (4,880 m)
18,000 (5,490 m)
20,000 (6,100 m)
25,000 (7,625 m)
30,000 (9,150 m)
40,000 (12,200 m)
45,000 (13,720 m)
35,000 (10,670 m)
0
10 MILES
10 KILOMETERS
BELCHER (U.S.)NATSEK E-56 (CANADA)1EDLOCK N-56 (CANADA)1
Miocene
Eocene
Eocene
Paleocene(Both Wells)
Eo
Pal
Eocene(Taglu Sequence)
Eocene
Interpretation of unmigrated line published by Craig et al. (MMS 85-0111, 1985, pl. 7)
SOUTH NORTHWEST
ANTIFORMALDUPLEX STACK?
BROOKIAN SEQUENCE
BASEMENT
BROOKIAN SEQUENCE?
EN ECHELONFOLDS
ARCTIC NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE (ANWR) “KAKTOVIK BASIN”
DEMARCATION SUBBASIN NIGUANAK HIGH HERSCHEL ARCH
5 km
LINE 9
1 Well locations projected to similar structural positions relative to Demarcation subbasin and Herschel Arch. Ages of rocks at total depth in Edlock and Natsek wells from Dietrich and others, 1989, Geol. Surv. Canada Paper 89-1G
ANWR
EXPLORATORYWELL, P&A
OILFIELD
GASFIELD
0 150
50 0 150MILES
KILOMETERS
50SEISMIC PROFILE
OIL
PIP
ELIN
E
NPR-A ALASKA (U.S. )C
ANADA
Beau
fort
Sea-
Can
adia
n W
ater
s
6
43
5
7
8
9
2
1
PRUDHOEKUPARUK
LIBERTYNORTHSTAR
WALAKPA
BARROW
FISH CREEK
WOLFCREEK UMIAT
EASTUMIAT
GUBIK
SIMPSON
MEADE
SQUARE LAKE
KEMIKKAVIK
PT. THOMSONSOURDOUGH
BADAMIOUMALIKALPINE
KUVLUMHAMMERHEAD
SANDPIPER
STINSON
CABOT
FIREWEED
GALAHADMARS
ANTARESORION
MUKLUK
KLONDIKE BURGER
DIAMOND
POPCORN
CRACKERJACK
CORONAWW
BELCHER
AURORAK.I.C. #1
Nuiqsut
Barrow
Wainwright
PointLay
PointHope
Kaktovik
Arctic Ocean
Chukchi Sea
Beau
fort
Sea-
Can
adia
n W
ater
s
Shelf edge onshore from Bird (1988, fig. 16.15) and Moore et al. (1994, fig. 13)
INDEX MAP174° 172° 170° 168° 166° 164° 162° 160° 158° 148°150°152°154°156°
72°
70°
68°
150°160°
170°
140°
68°
70°
72°
146° 144° 142° 140° 138° 136°
73°
Chu
kchi
Sea
-Rus
sian
Wat
ers
BO
R
S
O
K RANG RE F ONT
BROOKS RANGE FRTON
HERALD THRU
ST
Why so Rich?
Reason #3: Numerous large prospects
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Prudhoe Bay-13,700 MmboKuparuk-2,900 Mmbo
Alpine-536 Mmbo
Lisburne-192 Mmbo
Tarn-126 MmboEndicott-571 Mmbo Northstar-196 Mmbo
FIELD ACRES RESERVES (Mmbo) Kuparuk 170,000 2,900Prudhoe Bay 150,000 13,700Alpine 40,000 536Lisburne 30,000 192Tarn 11,800 126Endicott 8,800 571Northstar 7,500 196
Statistics for Untested Prospects:12 Prospects > 150,000 Acres24 Prospects > 100,000 Acres 95 Prospects > 40,000 Acres
ARCTIC OFFSHORE PROSPECTSProspect Areas Compared to Pool Areas for Selected North Slope Fields
Sherwood\...\Beaufort & Chukchi-Ranked Prospect Areas.cdr
Rank by Prospect Areas (n=1,129 [Chukchi, 856; Beaufort, 273])
Pros
pect
Are
as (A
cres
)
The MMS AssessmentMethod
Play Identification(“Play” = genetically-related group of pools, sharing hydrocarbon charge,
reservoir, and trap styles)
MMS Arctic Plays1. Grouped by Stratigraphic Sequence2. Structural Setting3. Reservoir Thermal Maturity (All Gas?)
EJU
AGE MYBP
PLAYSEQUENCE
MAJOR ARCTICPETROLEUM DISCOVERIES
CEN
OZO
ICM
ESO
ZOIC
PALE
OZO
IC
MISS.
PENN.
PERM.
TRIA
SSIC
JUR
ASS
ICC
RET
AC
EOU
STE
RTI
ARY
QUAT.
(ARGILLITE)
ENDICOTT GP
SHUBLIK FM
SAG RIVER FM
PEBBLE SH.
NANUSHUK GP
COLVILLE GP
SAGAVANIRKTOK FM.
GUBIK FM(NORTH)(SOUTH)
SANDSTONE
CONGLOMERATE
METAMORPHIC
SHALE
LIMESTONE
DOLOMITE
Chukchi Shelf, Beaufort Shelf, and Arctic AlaskaStratigraphic Column
STRATIGRAPHY LITH.S N
TOROK FM
DEV
ON
IAN
LCU
TAB
KIN
GA
K F
M
ETIV
LUK
GP.
KAY
AK
/K
AN
AYU
T/H
UN
T FO
RK
KU
NA
FM
.
OTU
K F
M.
SIK
SIK
. FM
.
UPP
ER
KUPARUK SS
KAVIK SHALE
SAD
LER
OC
HIT
GP
LISBURNE GP
SILTSTONE
OIL FIELD (RESERVE)
GAS FIELD (RESERVE)
OIL AND GAS FIELD (RESERVE)
RECOVERABLE
IN PLACE
CANADIAN BEAUFORT(17 GAS, 22 OIL, OIL ANDGAS FIELDS REC. RES. =
SCHRADER BLUFF (400 MMBOR)WEST SAK (300-500 MMBOR)
UMIAT (70 MMBOR, 0.05 TCFGR)
PT THOMSON (300 MMBOR, 5 TCFGR)KUPARUK (2.8 BBOR, 1.0 TCFGR)MILNE PT (220 MMBOR, 34 BCFGR)
PRUDHOE BAY(13 BBOR, 26 TCFGR)
LISBURNE POOL-PRUDHOEBAY (206 MMBOR, 1 TCFGR)
ENDICOTT (600 MMBOR, 0.9 TCFGR){?
EXPLANATION
LOW
ER
IVISHAK FM
ECHOOKA FM
WACHSMUTH FM.
KAYAK/KEKIKTUK FMS.
ALAPAH FM.
WAHOO FM.
1.1 BBOR AND 12.7 TCFGR)
BADAMI (120 MMBOR), FLAXMAN ISLAND (RU)
WALAKPA (32 BCFGR)
S.BARROW + E.BARROW (39 BCFGR)
PRUDHOE BAY-SAG RIVER (4 BBOIP)PRUDHOE BAY-SHUBLIK (250-500 MMBOIP)
SAND PIPER (RU)
LIBERTY (138 MMBOR)
MMBOR: MILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL,
MMBOIP: MILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL,
BBOR: BILLIONS OF BARRELS OF OIL, RECOVERABLE
BCFGR: BILLION CUBIC FEET OF GAS, RECOVERABLE
TCFGR: TRILLION CUBIC FEET OF GAS, RECOVERABLE
RU: RESERVES UNKNOWN
PT MCINTYRE (340 MMBOR, 710 BCFGR)
HAMMERHEAD (RU)
NIAKUK (65 MMBOR, 0.07 TCFGR)
NORTHSTAR (204 MMBOR)
BU
BROOKIAN
ELLESMERIANSEQUENCE
ACOUSTICBASEMENT
BROOKIAN UNCONFORMITYLOWER CRETACEOUSUNCONFORMITY
TOP OF ACOUSTICBASEMENT
BU:LCU:
TAB:
100
2
200
300
KUVLUM (325 MMBOR)
GUBIK AND E. UMIAT (350-900 BCFGR)
GWYDYR BAY (30-60 MMBOR)N. PRUDHOE (4 MMBOR)
{
RESERVES FROM AKDO&G (2000) AND OTHER SOURCES AS OF MAY 2001
SEQUENCE
FRANKLINIANSEQUENCE
KEY OIL SOURCE ROCKS
OIL RESERVOIRSKEY COMMERCIAL
ALPINE (429 MMBOR, 60 BCFGR)
EIDER (ENDICOTT) (5 MMBOR)
BEAUFORTIANSEQUENCE
PU
PU: PERMIAN UNCONFORMITY
FISH CREEK (RU)SIMPSON (RU)
JURASSICSS*
BARROW SSSIMPSON SS
PT. THOMSON SS
JU
* INCLUDES ALPINE, NUIQSUT,AND NECHELIK SANDSTONES OF KORNBRATH AND OTHERS (1997)
RESERVOIR/SOURCE
JURASSIC UNCONFORMITYJU:
FORTRESS MTN. FM.
OKPIK. FM.
?
??
TARN (65 MMBOR), SOURDOUGH (100 MMBOR), MELTWATER (50 MMBOR), TABASCO (30 MMBOR)
Beaufortian = RiftSequence
BrookianSequence
EllesmerianSequence
FranklinianSequence
North Limit - Hope Basin Fill
Pre-Brookian Basement at Seafloor
Herald Arch -
Herald Thrust at Seafloor
Lisburne Thrust
?
??
North Limit of Detached Folds
North
LimitOf
Detached
Folds
TranstensionalFault Zone
Foldbelt
Point Lay
Kase
galu
k L
agoo
n
PointHope
Point Lay
CapeLisburne
71°
70°
69°
170°168° 165° 162°
68°68°
TUNGAK CREEK
AKULIK
EAGLE CREEK
KLONDIKE
?
?
?
ALASKA
PACIFICOCEAN
ARCTIC OCEAN
I N D E X M A P Chukchi Sea
Planning Area
StudyArea
Herald Thrust Zone
Northern FoothillsSouthern Foothills
(Molenaar, 1988)
NO DATA
NO DATA
DATA
HERALD THRUST, FOLD AND THRUST BELT,AND TRANSTENSIONAL FAULT ZONE
ARCTICPLATFORM(Unfaulted)
Sherwood\.....\Figure KWS-10-Foldbelt.cdr
5
100
0
0 10
10
20
20
20
30
30
30
40
40
40
50
505
5
STATUTE MILES
KILOMETERS
NAUTICAL MILES
RU
SSIA
U. S
. A.
N
Exploration Well, Plugged and Abandoned, With Gas Shows in Lower Brookian Rocks
Axis of Anticline, with Arrows Denoting Plunge
Thrust Fault, Teeth on Upthrown Block
Normal Fault, Hachures on Downthrown Block
Explanation
USGS-7Jurassic1.76% Ro
ARCTIC OCEAN
ALASKA
PACIFIC OCEAN
BA
O
SE
EA T
ION
ZO
-1.3
5
ERN
G
BASE OIL NER ZO - 1.35% Ro
FOR OILEXPENDEDSHUBLIK-2.0% R-FLO
VATION
SER
OIL
ATIONGE NE
PRE
??
OR
I LNE
Ro%
o
SHUBLI
KTR
UNCA
TED
AT J
U
SHUBLI
KTR
UN
AT JU
SHUBLIKTRUN
AT LCU
SHUBLIK ONLAP EDGE
TED
TEDCA USGS - ONLAP EDGE
SHUBLIK
CA
DATUM
CHANGE
CHANGE
DATUMOFFSHORE MAPPING BY MINERALS MANAGEMENT SERVICE STAFF (S. HURLBERT, S. ZERWICK, K. SHERWOOD, J. SCHERR, J. CRAIG, P. JOHNSON, D. THURSTON), COMPILED BY SHERWOOD, 1/93.
ONSHORE MAPPING IN NPRA FROM BIRD, 1988, U.S.G.S. pp 1399, figure 16.13.
DATUM CHANGE AT SHORELINE: OFFSHORE, TOP SHUBLIK; ONSHORE, TOP SADLEROCHIT (BASE SHUBLIK).
LCU: LOWER CRETACEOUS UNCONFORMITY (BASE PEBBLE SHALE).
JU: JURASSIC UNCONFORMITY (LATE JURASSIC TO EARLY CRETACEOUS).
OIL GENERATIVE (0.6-1.35 Ro%)
ONLY GAS PRESERVED (>2.0 Ro%)
GAS GENERATIVE (1.35-2.0 Ro%)
SURPRISE CREEK-SHUBLIK (OTUK?)EXPOSED AT SURFACE 0.7%-1.4% Ro
POSTED VITRINITE REFLECTANCES ARE FOR TOP OF SHUBLIK FORMATION. ONSHORE DATA CALCULATED FROM JOHNSSON AND OTHERS (1993, AAPG, 77/11, 1874)
SURPRISE CREEK LOCALITY DATA FROM MULL (1997, AK. GEOL. SOC., APRIL NEWSLETTER AND PERS. COMM., 1998)
SURFACE THERMAL MATURITIES IN BROOKS RANGE FROM JOHNSSON AND HOWELL, 1996, USGS MI, MAP I-2142.
Sherwood\...\Figure Chuk-15-HannaTroughOilKitchen.cdr
Barrow
Point Lay
Wainwright Atqasuk
Point Hope
162°72°
70°
71°
156°
159°
69°
68°
165°168°169°
50 Statute Miles
50 Nautical Miles0
0
0 50 Kilometers
TUNGAK CREEK
EAGLE CREEK
AKULIK
SHUBLIK NOTPENETRATED
SHUBLIK NOTPENETRATED
NOT PENETRATED
TUNALIK3.00% V14400 FT/TOP SHUBLIK14715 FT/TOP SAD.
PEARD0.95% V8362 FT/TOP SHUBLIK8637 FT/TOP SAD.
KUGRUA2.01% V9565 FT/TOP SHUBLIK9925 FT/TOP SAD.
RO
RO
RO
POPCORNSHUBLIKNOT PRESENT
CRACKERJACKSHUBLIKNOT PRESENT
KLONDIKE0.66% V9359 FT
RO
BURGERNOT PENETRATEDAT TD (8160 FT)
DIAMOND0.84% V4612 FT
RO
8,000
6,000
10,000
14,000
10,000
12,00
0
12,000
11,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
20,000
26,0
00
28,000
22,000
22,000
18,000
14,000
10,000
?
?
?
?
4,000
24,000
STRUCTURE AND THERMAL MATURITY OF TRIASSIC OIL SOURCE ROCKS IN HANNA TROUGH
Estimated Potential Triassic Charge to Chukchi Shelf = 2.97 Trillion Barrels(Sherwood et al., 1998, p. 144)
HYPOTHETICAL OILMIGRATION PATHS
ARCTIC OFFSHORE PLAYS2 Franklinian Sequence Plays (1 Chukchi,
1 Beaufort)9 Ellesmerian Sequence Plays (6 Chukchi,
3 Beaufort)4 Rift/Beaufortian Sequence Plays (3
Chukchi, 1 Beaufort)24 Brookian Sequence Plays (16 Chukchi,
9 Beaufort)_________________
39 Plays Total
Basics of Assessment Method
• Determine Sizes and Numbers of Pools
• Summation of Pools• Acknowledge Uncertainty
(Reflected by Ranged Estimates or Probability Distributions)
POOL VOLUMES(Acre-Feet)
• Prospect Areas from Seismic Mapping.
• Fill Fraction Estimates (Analogs; Seal
• Pay Thickness from Regional Data
Sherwood\...\Chukchi Play 11 Prospect Areas.cdr
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100
120
140
160
Log-Normal Fit ( ) to Prospect Areas@RISK-Bestfit(Chukchi Shelf Play 11-Foreland Foldbelt)
Prospect Area (acres x 1,000)
%/1
0 (n
=57)
Log-NormalFit
Mean=21,925 acresMedian=13,223 acresStd. Dev.=28,998 acres
PROSPECT NUMBERS(Probability Distribution)
1. Numbers of Prospects from Seismic Mapping (“Identifieds”).
2. Numbers of Prospects Not Mapped Owing to Deficiencies in Mapping (“Unidentifieds”).
3. Create log-normal probability distribution between minimum and maximum.
CALCULATE NUMBERS OF POOLS
• Construct Risk Model for Play to Estimate Exploration Chance
• Set Exploration Chance Against Prospect Numbers to Calculate Probability Distribution for Number of Pools
DEFINITIONS1. Pool: hydrocarbons in sufficient
concentration in a pore system to flow into a conventional wellbore (may establish minimum size if feasible)
2. Successful Play: any play known or believed to contain at least one pool (play chance = 1). All others <1.0.
MORE DEFINITIONS
3. Prospect Chance: Assuming a successful play, fraction of prospectsthat contain pooled petroleum
4. Play Exploration chance: [play levelchance] X [prospect chance]
Play Risk Model
RESERVOIR YIELD1. Recoverable Stock-Tank Barrels of
Oil Per Acre-Foot.2. Recoverable Gas at STP in Millions
of Cubic Feet Per Acre-Foot.3. Use Reservoir Equations in Monte
Carlo Aggregation in @RISK
@RISK Data Model for Oil & Gas Recovery Factors
10,000 Trials Calculate Conditional Oil & Gas Resources
for 10’s-100’s of Thousands of “Simulation Pools”
Simulation Pools Are:1.Used to Construct Actual Pools
Forecast for Play2.Aggregated and Risked to Estimate
“Geologic” Endowments of Plays3.Individually Sampled and Tested for
Economic Success
>100 model parameters (engineering, costs, scheduling, and financial) are entered as ranged distributions
154°174°174°
52°
178° 178°
54°
56°
58°
170° 166° 162° 158°
60°
156° 160° 164° 168° 172° 176° 180° 176° 168° 160°
150° 146° 138°142° 134°
54°
56°
58°
60°
62°
152° 144° 136° 128° 120° 116°
64°
66°
68°
70°
72°152°148°144°
50°
48°
46°
44° 50°
52°
Cook Inlet Oil and Gas Fields
Prudhoe Bay AreaOil and Gas Fields
Sherwood\...\Alaska Gas Infrastructure-2006 Assessment.cdr
Canada
ALASKA
RussiaNPR-A
ANWR
Russian Waters
Can
adia
n W
ater
s
LNG Tanker Route
Onshore Gas Pipeline
Subsea Gas Pipeline
NOR Central Offshore Facility
Shorebase (No LNG Plant)Main Shorebase with LNG Plant
NOMEYAKUTAT
TAPS
Explanation
Trans-Alaska OilPipeline System (TAPS)
TAPS800 mi
Gas Development Infrastructure and Transportation Routes
2006 MMS Oil & Gas AssessmentAlaska OCS
KODIAK
VALDEZ
ANCHORAGE
YAKUTATLNG PLANT
DUTCHHARBOR
COLDBAY
CENTRAL OFFSHORE FACILITIESCHUK:BEAU: HB:NOR:NAV:SGB:NAS:KS:GOA: SH
Chukchi ShelfBeaufort Shelf
Hope Basin Norton Basin Navarin Basin St. George Basin North Aleutian Shelf
Kodiak Shelf Gulf of Alaska
: Shumagin Shelf
REDDOG
3,500 mi
2,600 mi
2,100 mi
LNG Tankers To U.S. West Coast
LNG Tankers ToU.S. West Coast
GAS PIPELINE TO
U.S. MIDWEST
HB
CHUK
CHUKBEAU BEAU
NAV
SGB
NASSH
NOR
KS
GOANIKISKI/
KENAI LNGPLANT
BALBOA BAYLNG PLANT
KIVALINA
NOMEST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND LNGPLANT
Nautical Miles
500
150
500
150
Miles
Kilometers500
150
Shelf Edge
Development & Economic Models
Hypothetical GasDevelopmentInfrastructureModel
ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT
• Hypothetical “simulation pools” as modeled by geological model
• Engineering simulation based on sizes and locations of hypothetical “simulation pools”
• Cost schedule and production & revenue stream based on engineering simulation
• Economic outcome based on discounted-cash-flow (DCF) model
2006 Beaufort Price/Supply Curve (Mean Resource Case)
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20Billons of Barrels of Oil & Condensate
Oil
Pric
e $2
005/
bbl a
t U.S
. Wes
t Coa
st
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
$11
$12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20Trillions of Cubic Feet of Gas
Gas
Pric
e $2
005/
Mcf
at U
.S. M
idw
est
OIL & CONDENSATE
FREE GAS ANDSOLUTION GAS
Data & Image Provided by C. Reitmeier, Dec '05
Economic ThresholdsOil $22 ($2005)/barrelGas $3.33 ($2005)/Mcf
ANS Crude $55-$65/bblSept ’05-Mar ‘06
2006 Chukchi Price/Supply Curve (Mean Resource Case)
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Billions of Barrels of Oil & Condensate
Oil
Pric
e $2
005/
bbl a
t U.S
. Wes
t Coa
st
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
$11
$12
0 10 20 30 40 50 60Trillions of Cubic Feet of Gas
Gas
Pric
e $2
005/
Mcf
at U
.S. M
idw
est
OIL & CONDENSATE
FREE GAS ANDSOLUTION GAS
Data & Image Provided by C. Reitmeier, Dec '05
Economic ThresholdsOil $30 ($2005)/barrelGas $4.54 ($2005)/Mcf
ANS Crude $55-$65/bblSept ’05-Mar ‘06
6 Lease Sales for Arctic OffshoreSale No. Area Year202 Beaufort Sea Mar 2007193 Chukchi Sea 2007?209 Beaufort Sea 2009211 Cook Inlet 2009212 Chukchi Sea 2010217 Beaufort Sea 2011219 Cook Inlet 2011221 Chukchi Sea 2012