European Timber Markets: Developments and Challenges in 2004
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Transcript of European Timber Markets: Developments and Challenges in 2004
Diversity in the Single Market – Challenges for Tropical Timber in Europe
ITTO Market Discussions, 22 July 2004, Interlaken, SwitzerlandFA
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European Timber Markets: Developments and Challenges in 2004
Ed Pepke, Ph.D.Forest Products Marketing SpecialistFood and Agricultural Organization &UN Economic Commission for Europe
Geneva, Switzerland
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UNECE/FAO Timber Branch
FA
O
Timber Committee
European Forestry
Commission
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Sources
• UNECE/FAO TIMBER database on forest products
• UNECE/FAO Temperate & Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
• FAOSTAT Forestry Database website• UNECE/FAO Timber Bulletin “Forest
products annual market review, 2003-2004
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FPAMR vs. ITTO’s market review
• Based on Joint UNECE/FAO/ITTO/Eurostat questionnaire
• Shared information, e.g. tropical timber chapter by ITTO
• Other FPAMR chapters– Policies influencing forest products
markets– Primary product sectors– Value-added wood products– Certified forest products
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Subjects of presentation
• EU enlargement and its effects– Forest products markets– Tropical timber markets in Europe– Forest resources
• Findings from FPAMR 2004• Key issues in forest products
markets and government policies
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EU Enlargement
EU15 + new EU10 = EU25
What effect on forest products markets?
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EU 15
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EU 25
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Future EU 29
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EU enlargement in general
• Population– 20% increase to 454 million
• Gross domestic product (GDP)– Almost 5% increase to €9,613 billion
• Intra EU25 trade accounts for two thirds of total trade of EU25
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Currencies in the “single” market
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Index 1
/2000 =
100
EURO CHF PLZ SKR GBPSource: International Monetary Fund, 2004
14 currencies all together in EU !
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EU 15 to EU 25:
Effects on forest products
markets
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Annual per capita consumption
(m3 or m.t./person/year)
Product EU 15 EU 10
Sawnwood 0.23 0.15
Wood-based panels 0.12 0.11
Paper and paperboard 0.20 0.08
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Changes to forest products trade
• Most changes made prior to 2004 in preparation for accession
• 80% of forest products exports already to EU (90% in Baltic countries)
• Higher speed of transport through customs = lower cost
• Reduced market barriers, including taxes, ending duties
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Changes to forest products trade
• Increased market info• Consistent trade regulations• Consistent quality standards• Freer flow of labour• EU economic development funding
available
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Roundwood (logs)
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Total consumption of roundwood
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
EU 15 EU 10
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Consumption of tropical roundwood
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
EU 15 EU 10
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Consumption of hardwood roundwood (EU 25)
98 000
100 000
102 000
104 000
106 000
108 000
110 000
112 000
114 000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
Temperate Tropical
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Imports of tropical roundwood
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
EU 15 EU 10
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Sawnwood (lumber)
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Imports of tropical sawnwood (m3)
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
EU 15 EU 10
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Imports of tropical sawnwood ($)
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 U
S$
EU 15 EU 10
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Imports of tropical sawnwood: volume vs. value (EU 25)
7800
8000
8200
8400
8600
8800
9000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Volu
me, m
3
2 800 000
2 900 000
3 000 000
3 100 000
3 200 000
3 300 000
3 400 000
3 500 000
3 600 000
Valu
e, $
Volume Value
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Imports of temperate vs. tropical sawn hardwood
0123456789
10
19891990
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
2003
Million m
3
Temperate Tropical
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Consumption of sawn hardwood
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
EU 15 EU 10
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Consumption of tropical sawnwood
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1000 m
3
EU 15 EU 10
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Sawnwood consumption comparison
010 00020 00030 00040 00050 00060 00070 00080 00090 000
100 000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
Tropical Temperate Softwood
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Imports of sawn hardwood
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
EU 15 EU 10
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Exports of sawn hardwood
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
EU 15 EU 10
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Production of sawn hardwood
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
EU 15 EU 10
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Beech sawnwood prices
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Index 1
995 =
100
Germany France
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Consumption of sawn softwood vs. sawn hardwood (EU 25)
010 00020 000
30 00040 00050 00060 00070 000
80 00090 000
100 000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
Softwood Hardwood
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Imports of sawn softwood
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
EU 15 EU 10
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Exports of sawn softwood
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
EU 15 EU 10
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Plywood
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Imports of plywood
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
EU 15 EU 10
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Imports of tropical plywood
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
EU 15 EU 10
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Challenges for exporters to the EU
• CE marking for plywood, soon other products
• Labeling, including certification• Health and safety standards
– Phytosanitary standards• Quality/grade specifications• Packaging specifications• Species
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Consumption of plywood
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
EU 15 EU 10
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Production of plywood
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
1,0
00 m
3
EU 15 EU 10
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EU 15 to EU 25 - the effect on forest resources
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Forest area
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
EU 15 EU 10
1,0
00 h
a
“Forest Available for Wood Supply”
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Softwood vs. hardwood forests
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
EU 15 EU10
1,0
00 h
a
Softwood Hardwood
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Forest resources in Europe
• Only 60% of wood grown is harvested
• Forest volume increases ~2 million m3 daily
• Forestland increases by 500,000 hectares
per year
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State of Europe’s Forests
• Resources increasing• Forest health and vitality are critical• Productive functions maintained• Biodiversity is a focus• Plantations are only 3%• Protective forests are 12%• Socio-economic functions important
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Forest resources in Russia
• Only 16% of wood grown is harvested• Forest volume increases ~3 million m3
daily • Forest area 1990 to 2000: no
significant change
Sources: State of the World’s Forests 2003; Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000; Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000
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Forest resources: growing stock
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
Million m3
Europe (41) NorthAmerica
CIS
Growing Stock Net Annual Increment Fellings
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.
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Forest resources: NAI vs. fellings
0100200300400500600700800900
1,000
Europe (41) N. America CIS
Million m
3
Net Annual Increment Fellings
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.
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Forest resources: NAI vs. fellings
Fellings as% of NAI
Europe-41 60%
EU-15 64%
Nordic countries
72%
Baltic countries
50%
Central & eastern Europe
56%
Russia 16%
North America 80%
Source:Temperate and Boreal Forest Resources Assessment 2000.
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Forest resources summary
• Removals considerably below growth• Wide variance in utilization rates of NAI • Growing stock increasing in Europe• Oversupply compared to demand for
wood• Increasing alternative demands on
forests
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Findings of FPAMR
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Policies affecting UNECE region forest products markets
• Illegal logging– Dominates political discussions– EU regulation to control imports of
illegally-sourced timber in preparation• Wood energy
– Policies expanding biofuel trade– Competition for raw materials
• Tariffs, duties and regulations
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Policies affecting UNECE region forest products markets
• Promotion of wood– EU-wide promotion on enhanced use
of wood– Other regional campaigns successful
• Need to support research and development– Research has declined markedly – Development composite products
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Policies affecting UNECE region forest products markets
• Forest certification programs expanded worldwide – government purchasing programs– major wood buying groups and
retailers in the UNECE region• Global carbon trade market growing
rapidly
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European construction sector development
Source: Euroconstruct, 2004
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2002 2003 2004f 2005f
% c
hange
New residentialResidential renovation and modernizationNew non-residentialNon-residential renovation and modernization
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Central and eastern European construction sector
developments
Source: Euroconstruct, 2004
-12-9-6
-3036
912
2002 2003 2004f 2005f
% c
hange
New residentialResidential renovation and modernizationNew non-residentialNon-residential renovation and modernization
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Wood raw materials (logs & chips)
• Record roundwood production in UNECE region
• Fastest trade development: exports from central and eastern Europe
• Russian exports = 30% harvest• Log prices decreasing with higher
supply• Wood energy promotion by
governments creating new markets
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Sawn softwood
• Globalization of markets continues• High demand in USA. Increasing imports
from Europe and elsewhere• Record European exports to Japan• Eastern Europe and Russia redefining
global marketplace• China’s demand increasingly affecting
UNECE region
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Sawn hardwood
• Increasing central and eastern European (CEEC) demand for further processing
• Consumption increasing in UNECE region: up 9% in western Europe in 2003
• Imports increasing, primarily within region
• Record hardwood flooring demand
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Sawn hardwood
• Growing CEEC production, trade and consumption
• CIS countries (Ukraine, Russia) exporting hardwood to Asian and European value-added manufacturers
• Interest in darker, tropical species for flooring
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Hardwood sawlog prices
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Index 1
/1999 =
100
US South oak Germany oak Germany beech
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Panels
• European particleboard, MDF and OSB industries back on track
• European plywood industry records positive results, but affected by foreign competition
• CEEC and CIS region enjoy clearly higher growth rates and increased investments
• Record prices in USA stimulate exports
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Certification and certified forest products
• 170 million hectares worldwide• 90% in UNECE region• Public procurement policies are newest
driving force for certification• Problems
– Lack of mutual recognition– Lack of demand from final consumers
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Certified forest area distribution
47%
40%
6% 3% 2% 2%
North America EU/ EFTA Oceania Latin AmericaOther Europe and CIS Africa
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Value-added wood products
• 10% growth in trade in 2002• Continued growth in 2003 and 2004• China’s export power
– The US duties on wooden bedroom furniture imported from China
• Furniture most dynamic sector• Outdoor garden furniture from tropical
woods• Engineered wood products: bright future
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World imports of wooden furniture
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Billion $
Furniture parts Other wooden furniture
Bedroom & kitchen furniture Seats
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Conclusions
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Wood supply and demand:
Are we growing too much wood?
No.
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We are not growing sustainable forest products markets as fast
as forests.
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We must grow wood markets through long-term, international
cooperation (organizations, industry trade associations, Governments and NGOs).
Solution:
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International wood promotion programs
• UNECE/FAO Forest Communicators Network
• Wood Promotion Council in North America
• Roadmap 2010 in Europe• National and regional programs, e.g.
Nordic Timber Council (NTC)
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Summary
• The single EU market is diverse• New EU10 will not increase markets
dramatically in the near future• Tropical timber shares some challenges with
temperate timber– Increasing wood’s market share– Educating consumers about SFM,
renewablility, recyclability– Gaining confidence in wood
• Let’s work together to “grow” the markets!
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Questions and discussion
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Contact informationEd Pepke
Forest Products Marketing SpecialistUNECE/FAO Timber Branch
448 Palais des NationsCH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland
Telephone +41 22 917 2872Fax +41 22 917 [email protected]
www.unece.org/trade/timber
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Presentation prepared with
Ulla Kyttälä and Eliisa RantaForest Products Marketing Assistants
UNECE/FAO Timber BranchPalais des Nations
CH-1211 Geneva 10, [email protected]@unece.org
www.unece.org/trade/timber