Europa: ¿Un problema para Colombia? Nazmi -BN… · BNP Paribas is incorporated in France with...
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June 15, 2012 1 April 2012 1 Nader Nazmi Director, LatAm Research June 2012 El Año de Draghi Europa: ¿Un problema para Colombia?
Transcript of Europa: ¿Un problema para Colombia? Nazmi -BN… · BNP Paribas is incorporated in France with...
June 15, 2012 1 April 2012 1
Nader Nazmi
Director, LatAm Research
June 2012
El Año de Draghi
Europa: ¿Un problema
para Colombia?
June 15, 2012 2
Latam: México y Colombia son menos vulnerables a China
China es importante para LatAm
Source: Bloomberg EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12
Chile
Peru
Argentina
BrazilColombia
M exico
las exportaciones a China (% de total) las exportaciones a China (% de total)
June 15, 2012 3
Latam: Europa más importante para Brasil y Argentina
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan00 Jan02 Jan04 Jan06 Jan08 Jan10 Jan12
Brazil
Colombia
M exico
Argentina
%
las exportaciones a Europa (% de total)
Source: Bloomberg EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas
June 15, 2012 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan 00 Jan 02 Jan 04 Jan 06 Jan 08 Jan 10 Jan 12
ChilePeru
Argentina
Brazil
Colombia
M exico
Latam: Para México y Colombia EEUU es mas importante
las exportaciones a los EEUU (% de total)
Source: Bloomberg EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas
June 15, 2012 5
EEUU: Recuperación débil (I)
5
El funcionamiento económico actual continúa decepcionado según estándares históricos
Source: Reuters Ecowin Pro
100 = Pico de demanda total
antes de la recesión
Trimestres
June 15, 2012 6
EEUU: Recuperación débil (II)
6
La agresiva política económica ha evitado un caso como el de la Gran Depresión
Source: Reuters Ecowin Pro
100 = Pico de PIB
antes de la recesión
Gran Depresión
1948-2001 Recesiones
June 15, 2012 7 7
EEUU: La inyección de dinero en el sistema (Quantitative Easing - QE) aumenta el
apetito por riesgo
QEs el riesgo (VIX) disminuye
No QE el riesgo (VIX) incrementa
¿Necesitamos más QE?
May 2012
June 15, 2012 8 8
EEUU: QE ayudó al mercado de valores
QE ayuda el mercado de valores
Source: Reuters Ecowin Pro
June 15, 2012 9
EEUU: La recuperación del mercado laboral ha sido la más lenta registrada
9
Source: Reuters Ecowin Pro
Meses
Promedio = 27 meses 1,0 = El Empleo en su
pico antes de recesión
June 15, 2012 10
EEUU: Un dólar más débil ayuda a EEUU
Luchar para ganar la guerra de tasa de cambio
El dólar de EEUU: Tasa de cambio real
June 15, 2012 11
Las monedas latinoamericanas se aprecian contra el dólar
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Q1 12
USDBRL
USDCLP
USDCOP
USDPEN
¿QUIEN pierde la guerra de tasa de cambio?
June 15, 2012 12 12
Eurozona: Los indicadores lideres muestran debilidad
la señal de una recesión
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
June 15, 2012 13
Eurozona: La divergencia entre países miembros
Diferencias claves: (1) Condiciones fiscales y (2) productividad
Más optimista en Alemania
GDP Forecasts 2012
-0.3
0.6
-1.4 -1.3
-3.8
1.2
0.5
-1.6-1.9
-4.5
0.00.0
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Eurozone Germany France Italy Spain Portugal
Consensus Economics
BNP Paribas
Source: Consensus, BNP Paribas
PIB = 2012 pronósticos
June 15, 2012 14
Los bancos centrales están ocupados
14
El ECB y la FED han aumentado la liquidez sustancialmente
Source: Reuters Ecowin Pro
Los activos de los bancos centrales como % del PIB
June 15, 2012 15 15
Eurozona: Préstamos bancarios
Crédito de la banca comercial al sector privado es débil
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
préstamos
hipotecarios (% a.)
préstamos a empresas (% a)
préstamos a los
hogares (% a)
préstamos al consumo (% a)
June 15, 2012 16 16
Eurozona: Compras de deuda públicos por bancos privados de cada país (diciembre-abril)
Los bancos españoles compraron EUR 85 bn de los bonos del gobierno de España durante diciembre
y abril (11% de deuda publica de España)
Los bancos españoles e italianos han usado una buena parte del capital obtenido del ECB para comprar deuda soberana de sus países
Source: ECB
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
DE BE GR LU IE EE AT NL FR PT IT ES
Change in MFIs Borrowing from the ECB (Nov11-Mar12, EUR bn)
MFIs Holdings of Government Debt (Nov11-Mar12, EUR bn)Préstamos de ECB a los bancos privados (Mil
Millones euro) Compras de
bonos públicos
June 15, 2012 17
Colombia: Producción industrial y ventas al por menor (promedio móvil 3-meses, % a.)
Tendencia de crecimiento preocupa
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
Producción industrial Ventas al por menor _
June 15, 2012 18
Colombia: la desaceleración económica ha empezado
Hasta ahora bien: caída suave
BNP Paribas: 2012 crecimiento = 4.8% PIB
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%Jan-9
4
Nov-9
4
Sep-9
5
Jul-96
May-9
7
Mar-
98
Jan-9
9
Nov-9
9
Sep-0
0
Jul-01
May-0
2
Mar-
03
Jan-0
4
Nov-0
4
Sep-0
5
Jul-06
May-0
7
Mar-
08
Jan-0
9
Nov-0
9
Sep-1
0
Jul-11
May-1
2
PIB IMACO
Indice mensual de actividad de Colombia (IMACO)
Colombia: BNP Paribas “Surprise Index” para actividad
La actividad económica ha sido más débil que esperado (la sorpresa negativa)
(1.50)
(1.00)
(0.50)
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
June 15, 2012 20
Colombia: el crecimiento del crédito (3m MA a.)
El crecimiento del crédito se caerá más
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12
CommercialConsumerMortgageMicrocredit_
June 15, 2012 21
Colombia: Inflación, ex-alimentos y meta de inflación (%)
Inflación está dentro del rango de meta de inflación
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Jan
08
Jul
08
Jan
09
Jul
09
Jan
10
Jul
10
Jan
11
Jul
11
Jan
12
Headline Inflation
CPI ex-Food
CB Target
Inflación ex-
alimento
Inflación
Rango de la meta
June 15, 2012 22
Colombia: ¿Dónde irán tasa de interés a partir de aquí?
Depende de la dinámica de crecimiento
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Policy Rate
la tasa de
política
tasa real
promedio
June 15, 2012 23
Colombia, Peru y Chile: World Bank “Doing Business Index”
“Hacer el Negocio" en Colombia es casi tan bueno como en Chile (AAA grado de inversión)
Comenzar un negocio
Requisito de cosntruction
Consiguiendo electricidad
Registrar propiedad
Consiguiendo crédito
Proteger inversionistas
Pagar impuestos
Cross-border comercio
Imponer contractos
Resolución de insolvencia
Chile 39
Peru 41
Colombia 42
June 15, 2012 24
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