First Review MeetingJune 10 – 11.6.2020

Vassilis Sitokonstantinou

Research Associate

Beyond Center of ExcellenceNational Observatory of Athens

vsito@noa.gr

EU-CAP Support pilot

A system for dynamic phenology estimation and yield prediction using satellite and in-situ

observations

Live Online Smart Farming Conference, 9 October 2020

Outline

Copernicus program for Agriculture

Copernicus data

Pilot objectives and the e-shape paradigm

Auxiliary data

Mock examples of the developed and developing services

Take home message

The Copernicus program

The Copernicus program for Agriculture

EC targets the development of agricultural practices for the preservation of the environment and the sustainable productivity

Agriculture is one of the first domains to exploit earth observation data

Agriculture is probably the most promising market for the Copernicus program

Copernicus allows for the monitoring of

Land use and trends of the agricultural land

Cultivating conditions, crop health and crop growth

Crop yield

Copernicus supports farm management – inputs and irrigation

The application domains of Copernicus do not only limit to smart farming:

Seasonal mapping of agricultural land

Food security monitoring

Water management and monitoring of drought

Subsidy control and monitoring

Data of the Copernicus program – Sentinel 1 & 2

Sentinel satellites

Images of optical spectrum

Images of the microwave spectrum (radar)

Image acquisitions every 5/6 days

Dense time-series of Sentinel data

Full capture of crop growth

Timely monitoring of agricultural land

Global coverage

Applications of national, pan-European and global scale

Monitoring of food security

Monitoring of the CAP

Monitoring of agricultural ecosystem services and climate change

High spatial resolution (10 and 20 m)

Thematic information at the parcel and intra-parcel level

Smart farming and precision agriculture

Evidence-based decision making

The pilot

e-shape EU-CAP Support pilot

Support farmers towards the transition from CAP compliance to Farm performance

Assist the farmer in utilizing EO-based smart farming services

Support CAP compliance but also increase the production, decrease the costs, while applying sustainable practices

Showcase that Copernicus datasets combined with the necessary in-situ data, weather and soil data can deliver improved information products for actionable advice on crop growth and yield

Co-design approach and Potential users

Co-design with a smart farming/agriculture consulting company (NEUROPUBLIC/GAIA EPICHEIREIN)

Design, prototype, evaluate, fine-tune, test the produced services together with the user

Continuously engaging new users, customize the general and reusable tools that are being developed

Consider the commercialization, the sustainability and uptake of the developed services even from the design phase

Other potential users of the developed system and its services

Farmer cooperatives/farmers

Insurance companies

Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) stakeholders

Auxiliary data

Data from the co-designer – Neuropublic/GAIA EPICHEIREIN

Gaiatron Stations collect data related to atmospheric, soil and biological parameters,

such as air and soil temperature, relative air and soil humidity, soil salinity, leaf

moisture, rainfall, solar radiation, etc.

Crop calendars

Greek Agricultural Insurance Organization (ELGA) data

Data regarding years 2016-2019

Data include among others the following:

Average production over the years

Expected yield

Amount of Compensation

Damage extent

Cause of Damage

Validated in-field data

2020 campaign

In-situ measurements

High quality information

3 sites in every parcel

Validated phonological stage observations

Validated yield

The prototype

Interactive maps for dynamic phenology prediction and yield estimation at the parcel level

Time-lapse on map layers for the visualization of several parameters such as vegetation indices, meteo indices, soil indices

Crop classification layer along with the confidence indices

Parameter plots with timestamps – phenology prediction and percentage of completion; phenology forecasting

Alerting mechanism for discrepancies in declared crop types

Parcel based statistical report

Pilot prototype: Modules and Functionalities

The application

Interactive Map Parameters and Products

menu Parcel Report Parameter and Product

plots Alerts layer

Qualitative indices on vegetation, health and growth

Copernicus based vegetation and soil indices and meteorological parameters from numerical models and in-situ observations

Test site: Komotini, GreeceCrop type: Cotton

Stakeholders

Insurance

Agri-consultants

Farmers

Paying agencies

Test site: Larisa, GreeceCrop types: legumes, olive trees, cereals, maize, cottonAccuracy: >85%

Crop Classification layer

Machine learning based crop classification service for multiple crop types

Can be used at the portal of applications for subsidies

Stakeholders

Agri-consultants

Farmers

Paying agencies

Insurance

Phenology prediction map layer

Automated phenology prediction system – new prediction every 5-10 days

Test site: Komotini, GreeceCrop type: Cotton

Stakeholders

Agri-consultants

Farmers

Insurance

Yield estimation layer

Machine learning yield estimation in mid-season (cotton)

Test site: Komotini, GreeceCrop type: Cotton

Stakeholders

Agri-consultants

Farmers

Insurance

Parcel Information – Vegetation and Soil Index plots

Stakeholders

Agri-consultants

Insurance

Parcel Information – Parameter plots with over the years comparison

Stakeholders

Agri-consultants

Farmers

Insurance

Parcel Information – Plots of meteo data

Stakeholders

Agri-consultants

Farmers

Insurance

Parcel Information – Verification of cultivated crop type

Stakeholders

Agri-consultants

Farmers

Insurance

Paying agencies

Parcel Information – Verification of cultivated crop type

Stakeholders

Agri-consultants

Farmers

Insurance

Paying agencies

Parcel Information – Phenology estimation and forecasting

Stakeholders

Agri-consultants

Farmers

Insurance

Parcel Information and statistical report at the parcel level

The Alert Mechanism

Take home message

The Copernicus program offers a unique set of data that allows for providinglarge scale, timely and precise information for evidence based decision making

Services are co-designed with the users – rapid uptake, feedback for customization and fine-tuning, commercial sustainability of services

The methodological foundations of the services are algorithmically generaland technologically scalable to allow for an extended user base

The services are offered in different formats that represent multiple levels of the value chain, from plots and downloadble images and indices to actionableconsultation

thank you!