ESPON 3.2 – Spatial Scenarios

Introduction to the workshops

Where are we at in the project ?

– Thematic scenarios are finalised

– Hypotheses for integrated scenariosvalidated by MC

– Currently team is working on integrated scenarios

– First draft model results are coming in

Integrated scenarios

– One baseline scenario

– Two prospective policy scenarios

– One proactive (roll-back scenario)

– Spatial scenarios based on combination of themes

– Three types of scenarios:

Prospective and proactive policy scenarios

Today we discuss the baseline scenario

– Analysis of current trends

– Closest to ESPON projects

– You have received a very preliminary sketch

– Reference scenario

Bonus for Sara: the first draft MASSTresults

DRAFT

GDP/capita 2015

Baseline scenario

First MASST Results

GDP growth 2015

Baseline scenario

DRAFT

Aim of the workshops

– Regional validation of the hypotheses

– Identification of regional impacts

– Identification of regional specificities

Aim of the workshops

– Regional validation of the hypotheses:Do you recognise the trends identified in your country/region ?  If so, where in particular ?

– Identification of regional impacts: What are the most important territorial impacts of these likely to be ?

– Identification of key sub-trends by region: Which of these are dominant, most visible or relevant, by region ?

4 regional workshops

– North: Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia

– East: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, Austria, Bulgaria

– West: Belgium, France, Luxembourg, Netherlands, UK, Ireland, Switzerland, Germany

– South: Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain, Portugal

Workshops in practice

– Part 1: Regional validation and prioritisation: – Each participant fills out validation sheet– Country/region groups identify points of disagreements (with hypothesis or with each other)– Points of disagreement reported and discussed in plenary workshop

– Part 2: Identification of regional impacts:– Sub-groups identify main territorial impacts

and their spatial distribution within their country/region

– Feedback and discussion in plenary workshop