ESF- MedCLIVAR Workshop Climate Change Modeling for the Mediterranean region, ICTP, Trieste, Italy, 13-15 Oct 2008

Regional air quality decadal simulations over Europe in present and future climate

Prodromos Zanis, Ass. Professor Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece

Contributors:E. Katragkou, I. Tegoulias, D. Melas, AUTH, GreeceB. C. Krüger, BOKU-Met, Vienna, AustriaP. Huszar and T. Halenka, CUNI, Prague, Czech RepublicS. Rauscher, E. Coppola, ICTP, Trieste, Italy

Interest has more recently turned to the potential influence of climate change on future air-quality levels which can be seen in various ways:

• Warming will increase water vapor concentrations, and changes in temperature and water vapor will affect the reaction rates of many chemical conversions.

• Climate change may also alter global circulation dynamics, changing several processes that govern the distribution of tropospheric ozone, such as a) stratosphere-troposphere exchange, b) the distribution of convection, and c) ventilation of the boundary layer.

• Changes in climate will also affect many of the natural sources of trace gases, such as a) wetland CH4, b) biogenic volatile organic compounds, c) lightning NOx and d) soil NOx.

• Changes in climate will also affect wet-scavenging of fine particulate matter species which however is strongly dependent upon the predicted regional-scale precipitation changes.

Climate Change

Human and naturally induced

Regional weather changes

-Heat waves

-Extreme weather events

-Temperature

-Precipitation

Atmospheric Processes

Anthropogeinic Emissions

Natural

Emissions

Concentration of air pollutants

- O3

- PM

-SO2

-NO2

- CO

Aeroallergens

Increased respiratory symptoms and illness

Exacerbated chronic heart and lung disease

Accelerated lung aging

Increased lung cancer risk

Increased risk of premature death

Allergic diseases

Asthma

Moderating influences including

-population growth and demographic change

- standards of living

-Access and improvements in health care

-Public health infrastructure

Climate Change

Human and naturally induced

Regional weather changes

-Heat waves

-Extreme weather events

-Temperature

-Precipitation

Atmospheric Processes

Anthropogeinic Emissions

Natural

Emissions

Concentration of air pollutants

- O3

- PM

-SO2

-NO2

- CO

Aeroallergens

Increased respiratory symptoms and illness

Exacerbated chronic heart and lung disease

Accelerated lung aging

Increased lung cancer risk

Increased risk of premature death

Allergic diseases

Asthma

Moderating influences including

-population growth and demographic change

- standards of living

-Access and improvements in health care

-Public health infrastructure

Figure 1. Potential climate change effects on air-pollution and health (adapted by Bernard et al., 2001).

Climatic Initial & Boundary Conditions

RegCM3 Climate Model

Interface

CAMxPhotochemical AQ Model

Pollutant concentrations

Biogenic Emissionson-line calculated

Anthropogenic Emissions

Chemical Initial &Boundary Conditions

Chemistry ParametersPhotolysis Rates

RegCM3 Resolution: 50 km x 50 km or 25 km x 25 kmVertical Layers: 18 (up to 50hPa)

CAMx 4.40Resolution: 50 km x 50 km Vertical Layers: 12 (up to 6.5 km) Chemistry Mechanism: CB(IV) + aerosol

EMISSIONS:Anthropogenic: EMEP databaseBiogenic: On-line calculated (temp. + rad. dependent)

CHEMICAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS:Clean

Modeling system

4 x10-year simulations of the RegCM3/CAMx offline system

The regional climate model simulations of RegCM3 were used to drive off-line the air quality model CAMx for 4 decadal runs namely:

a) 1990-2001 with ERA-40 to drive RegCM3, (perfect BC run)

b) 1991-2000 with ECHAM5 to drive RegCM3, (control run)

c) 2041-2050 with ECHAM5 (under A1B scenario) to drive RegCM3

d) 2091-2100 with ECHAM5 (under A1B scenario) to drive RegCM3

* Domain: European domain (ENSEMBLES) with 50 km x 50 km or 25 km x 25 km

** All the RegCM3 simulations for these time slices have been carried out by ICTP and provided to AUTH.

Comparison of RegCM3/ERA-40/CAMx with EMEP ozone for the whole year over the period 1990-2001

Fractional Gross Error Modified Normalized Mean Bias

FGE ranges in the majority of stations between 10-35 % while MNMB ±20 %. ‘Satisfactory’ model performance is usually considered within the ranges of ± 15-20 % for normalized bias and 30-35 % for gross error according to US-EPA regulations (US EPA, 1991).

Sensitivity studies

Winter

Summer

Sensitivity to NOx emissions Sensitivity to biogenic emissions

Comparison of ERA40/RegCM3/CAMx with ECHAM/RegCM3/CAMx over the period 1991-2000

WINTER

Comparison of ERA40/RegCM3/CAMx with ECHAM/RegCM3/CAMx over the period 1991-2000

Summer

Differences between 2041-2050 and 1991-2000 of ECHAM/RegCM3/CAMx

Winter

Differences between 2041-2050 and 1991-2000 of ECHAM/RegCM3/CAMx

Summer

Differences between 2091-2000 and 1991-2000 of ECHAM/RegCM3/CAMx

Winter

?

Differences between 2091-2100 and 1991-2000 of ECHAM/RegCM3/CAMx

Summer

Conclusions

• Validation with EMEPEvaluation of CAMx simulations showed that the modeling system has a satisfactory performance with respect to O3.

• ECHAM1990 – ERA40The ozone differences are related to circulation changes modifying solar radiation and temperature fileds.

• ECHAM2040 - ECHAM1990In summer, incoming solar radiation shows a substantial decrease throughout the whole domain, followed by a similar spatial behavior of O3 except SE Europe where Temperature and Biogenic emissions increase.In winter increased solar radiation leads to increased O3 concentrations only in the west and southern part of the domain.

• ECHAM2090 - ECHAM1990Ozone increases in large parts of Europe for both winter and summer. The spatial patterns of ozone and solar radiation are very similar suggesting that solar radiation is the dominant modulating factor for ozone changes.

Thank you for your attention!